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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  March 21, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and around the world. shares of deutsche bank taking a tumble after their cfo warns of more revenue headwinds with the stock having lost 25% of its value so far this year. way,eadache out of the clearing a you hurdle after it goes to a takeover of monsanto does bayer. mark zuckerberg preparing a public statement about the cambridge analytica data breach with shares of the network -- social network rising today. equities 30ropean minutes away from the end of the wednesday session, down for a
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second day in three. investors are waiting on the outcome of jerome powell's first meeting as chairman of the federal reserve. , thebourg, switzerland euro stoxx 50 down by 4/10 of 1% with currencies mostly rising against the dollar today and bond yields gaining with commodities. the corporate side of things. is flush with cash after surging sales of $10,000 handbags is giving it back to shareholders with the french luxury goods paying an annual dividend of 4.1 euros per share of a special dividend of five euros per share. the maker of other handbags benefiting from a fresh push into e-commerce that helps operating margins rise two , thentage points to 34.6% paris-based company reporting earnings that beat estimates with shares of hermes up.
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indie --the of -- of inindi selling its stake uber soft. it was after a typical strategy of seeking control failed to pan out, a victory for the cofounder and chief executive who sought to ward off a takeover and buy vivendi. allows for a separate deal. they have argued a video game cannot grow within a media conglomerate, that independence would allow uber soft to take the necessary risks. king fish's shares hammered, down 10%. adjusted pretax profit. wassays full-year pretax is
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slightly stronger driven by cost savings in the u.k. fourth quarter like for like sales for the u.k. is weaker than expected and the outlook statement was more cautious. the international performance more in line and that cash flow -- goldman sachs cutting its estimate for profit next year by roughly 1% to reflect deceleration and u.k. like for like sales and a weaker start to the year. unusually tough weatherb. uy rating -- buy rating. biggest decline since 2001. let's look at the u.s. gains.moore ga -- more stocks around the highs of the session. we have been watching a turnaround in facebook. those shares earlier fell as much as 2.9% but now up 1.8% after dropping some 10% over the prior two sessions.
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we learned this morning that we would be hearing from mark zuckerberg in some capacity in the next 24 hours. facebook officials were supposed to be in front of the house judiciary panel but it has been postponed because of the weather until tomorrow. an interesting story just out from sarah and max, it has to do with mark zuckerberg not speaking out even to his own employees. hopefully we will get more details later on as the shares rise 2%. we are watching the commodity market. energy and materials are the best performing groups in the s&p 500. crude oil trading higher by 2.4% and gold, silver, copper, all bouncing today. fomcelds ahead of the decision this afternoon, not seeing much movement. the two-year yield is at its highest since september of 2008 and the dollar is trading lower,
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likely one of the things helping the commodities and the dollar being affected perhaps by trade comments. robert lighthizer saying that a trade war is not good for anyone. not what the u.s. wants. when you're talking about rates, look at the bloomberg, fed fund futures, how many more rate increases this year are they planning? 3.5 is where we are currently. if we get a deviation or change to that expectation, something unexpected from the commentary today from the fomc and jay powell, we could see a change with more tumult in the market. we have financial conditions in white. the two-year yield in yellow and the fed funds target rate, the two-year yield most closely tied to what the fed does as bp -- see the financial conditions have tightened considerably. widening a little bit in march from their lives. things to watch in the wake of
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the decision this afternoon. mark: yes. deutsche bank shares down substantially, the european bank in the news, warning of revenue headwinds from currencies and high funding cost. joined by our finance and investing managing editor. what happened in the last week? last week and things were looking a bit better but what happened in one week? >> the news today is not all that surprising in terms of the actual facts. talking about headwinds from fx which we can see but looking at a currency graph. surprising to investors was the different tone. report, a, the annual very optimistic outlook or trading business in 2018. well beyond the first quarter. -- the firstors quarter may not be strong because of these headwinds they are facing. mark: john cryan's quest to
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boost revenue is still a quest? thehat is right and on trading side, potentially it could come through more faster, the other areas he is trying to boost revenue may take longer, the corporate finances in germany they are trying to grow, that does not happen in a quarter or two. vonnie: what must morale be like? they came out weeks ago and said they would reinstate bonuses because they needed the talent back they had lost. how do you think employees are taking the news? >> we have learned on compensation as you point out, the investment banking business has been rewarded. management took the hit. they waved their own compensation. that will be a strong message to the banks, that they are investing in them. vonnie: do you think morale will be ok in spite of this news? >> what is interesting to they is that the cost to the wire
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industry from the trading comments, not just for deutsche bank -- from deutsche bank but from the credit suisse ceo -- ceo who was more cautious on the fourth quarter and trading business. he talked about a strong january. a february that was mixed. and a march that is all over the place. putting some caution on the trading business in the first quarter. mark: test deutsche bank need to prune costs to align the business with actual anticipated revenue? >> what they would want is to keep an eye on caused. -- cost. they are spending cautiously. we interviewed the head of their equity businesses who said they would be hiring but would be gradual. entry-level stuff. to maintain the costs under control. mark: can john cryan will be naysayers at bay -- hold the
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naysayers and they? >> the revenue that -- at bay? >> the revenue numbers have not been coming through. -- barclays chief executive jes staley sat down with francine lacqua and they discussed the new activist investor and what needs to change. >> our head of ir had a brief meeting with them. we look forward to engaging with all of our shareholders. the modern shareholder today is very involved and what companies are doing that they have invested in and we have been active dialogue with major shareholders. we had a new shareholder. a lot of engagement with them. and chase and his team. we are engaged with shareholders and learning more to make sure we stay close. francine: the fact they went up to 5.2% means a clear message to
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the market that they want something changed, do you know what that is? >> i would not say that. he has not said that. we look forward to hearing his thoughts. any major shareholder, capital or tiger, that has a position of this size, very interested in what the bank is doing and we look forward to articulating our vision for the bank and seeing what our shareholders have to say. francine: you have not heard they want to with the bank, nothing tangible? >> no. francine: not an interview? will you meet with him? >> sure. francine: ask him what? >> i would answer his questions. we want to engage with shareholders. francine: what will you tell him about buybacks? >> what i've told the market, we have an intent to deliver excess capital to shareholders. has not have a stock
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buyback for over 20 years. we have a legacy issue of our rmbs litigation with the department of justice. we want to settle that. get that behind us, given that i received the one capital ratio is over 13%, we should be any a good position to think about stock buybacks. vonnie: that was berkeley ceo jes staley speaking to francine lacqua. let's get to the first word news. >> authorities say the suspect in the wave of texas bombings blew himself up inside his vehicle as police closed in. authorities believe mark anthony believed to be behind the exposure and but the motive is not clear along with whether the man acted alone. police are urging local residents to remain cautious as the investigation continues. >> we do not know where the suspect has spent his last 24 hours.
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therefore, we still need to remain vigilant to make sure that no other packages or devices have been left through the community. >> one officer suffered minor injuries in this morning's confrontation. with the 2018 elections already underway, senators today question the current and former secretary of homeland security about russian intrusion in state election systems. and a lack of urgency to protect balloting this year. the president dhs secretary testified with jeh johnson, secretary of -- under president obama as the senate intelligence committee launched an effort to protect the nation's election security after russian agents targeted election systems in 21 states ahead of the 2016 general election. senators on the panel criticized both demonstrations for not moving quickly enough to stop the russian threat. islamic state's claimed responsibility for a suicide
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bombing near a shiite shrine in kabul that killed at least 31 people and wooded more than 50. the bombing in the afghan capital targeted minority shiites celebrating the virgin new year. the sunni extremists of islamic state often target shiites who they view as nonbelievers. opposition members of kosovo parliament used tear gas to disrupt the vote on a border demarcation deal with montenegro . lawmakers had to be evacuated and the assembly was temporarily suspended as the boat was about to begin. members of the so-called self-determination movement party used tear gas again when the session resumed. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: breaking news, tesla shareholders are said to have approved the $2.6 billion compensation plan for elon musk.
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shares up 1.4% on the news. the shareholders of tesla are said to approve the $2.6 billion elon musk compensation plan. a question as to whether shares would or would not. vonnie: coming up -- mark: coming up, said news on rates, we will speak with neil mackinnon of vtb capital. ♪
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♪ york, i ame from new vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. the european close in 14 minutes. jerome powell takes center stage today and tomorrow mark carney's
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turn. fed likely to raise rates and the boe for one inmate. joining us in -- one inmate. -- in may. neil mackinnon is joining us. the first appearance of the new fed chair, a wildcard. not all appearances are as polished as later ones, is that a factor today? he has been around it. is it a factor today that it is his first big day? neil: i would not think so, he is a federal reserve governor. he has made many speeches over the years. he has already had his inauguration testimony which was regarded as -- hawkish and bullish on the u.s. economy. he will sail through all of this. mark: what is the tone? how hawkish and balanced?
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neil: as far as the markets, a lot in terms of the pocket tilt -- hawkish tilt, three quarter-point rate hikes expected and the probability of a fourth hike this year is rising. , ifess that the market risk you would call it that, is not as hawkish as everyone thinks. i think that the first rate hike, we should remember, that should coincide with the increase in the run down of the fed balance sheet which will reach an annualized rate of $600 billion this year and to have a fourth rate hike plus that liquidity withdrawal would be a double whammy. mark: push them do next year and the year after? neil: that is more likely. ,o one knows what will happen they do not want to upset the apple cart because of recent market volatility but some commentators argues that he is less worried about that.
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in terms of the so-called dots, interest rate predictions could well be lifted to 2019-2020. we may see the terminal rate, the rate the fomc in december expected to be just above 3% at the end of 2020, could be lifted. i think a lot is being discounted by the market and i would not be surprised if anything is a big surprise. compared to baseline, jerome powell is slightly dovish. mark: boe market expectation now that theresa may is done and dusted, a lot can happen in a month and a half. are you saying, yes, made, does carney lay the groundwork for that tomorrow? neil: that has already been happening. today's, the u.k. inflation numbers, better than expected, a lot of interest rate forecasters in the u.k. were talking about, maybe the may rate hike may be in august rate hike antedate we
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had good numbers from the industrial trends survey's. the metrics above the long-term average is. mark: wage data highest since 2016. neil: unemployment rate falling this by brexit which puts may on the agenda. tomorrow will be important. worth pointing out that the ftse lowest atis at its the year and has not been performing well related to the exchange rate with stronger currencies on the strange rate. cable at 140 will impact the stock market. mark: are we had a post-brexit low when it comes to the economy? have we seen the worst? projections before brexit were doom and gloom and it was never as bad. neil: there was never the worst, we never had a recession. mark: 2% growth. have we seen the worst when it comes to the 1.5% growth? neil: in line with the u.s.
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growth this quarter. we did not have the worst case an area of the bank of england, the treasury they were talking about. did not happen. quite the opposite in fact. the bank of england has to face facts with the rate increasing forecast as we seen in the u.k. economy and forecasting bodies. brexit does not polished -- abolish the business cycle. the reality is that the economies performed reasonably well. we saw that with the further reduction in unemployment which is a record high -- employment at a record high and the longest streak of manufacturing output in a long time. looking ok. that is why the bank of england will consider a rate hike. a good chance it could be may as long as nothing disappointing comes along in the meantime. markets will be looking at tomorrow's meeting closely. mark: neil mackinnon, global
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macro strategist at vtb capital. vonnie: the fed decide come our special programming as jerome powell makes his fomc news conference today. that starts at 1:00 eastern and 5:00 in london time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ mark: live from london, i am mark barton with the european close minutes away. vonnie: live from new york city, i am vonnie quinn. shares of selfless airlines plunging, the worst days -- southwest airlines plunging after they survived titans for an important revenue data point. what is the data point? >> revenue per seat per mile, and a person -- important price gauge, it they are the biggest underperformer in the
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second-worst performer on the s&p 500 today. a gauge of their pricing power as they expected to be unchanged from a year ago and previously expected to rise 1%, 2%. the fact no guidance is a bad sign and they say it is because of the changes in the spring break travel schedule and fares and pressure of this is raising concerns about united planned to boost offerings of flights to passengers. bringing more demand will be affected by and the fares. raising is a broad industry concern. vonnie: can we deduce anything from airline and applied to others? >> pressure on fares will affect not just southwest or united but airlines across the world. major players are down today, delta, united, laguardia is affected by the weather. the work -- newark.
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the east coast affected by the nor'easter. the fourth one this month. they have canceled nearly 4000 flights which is not good for airlines. the winter storms in the spring are not good for these players. vonnie: not good for any of us. hope you are not traveling. thank you for the stock of the hour. mark: that is the currency board , stocks are lower and sterling is up against the dollar today after the strong wage data, employment data, setting up the bank of england meeting tomorrow and if possible rate hike in may if market expectations are to be believed. the close is three minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: back to european headquarters, stocks finishing the wednesday session awaiting the outcome of the meeting, --ling for the second day
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and among the best performing industries, beverage -- and among the worst performing is banks because deutsche bank is down by 5%, falling as much as 7% and the biggest decline in a year and the lowest since november of 2017. reducing revenues in the 400 50ies unit by million euro's this quarter and the chief financial officer's comments at the investor conference in london contrast with the tone published last week in which the lender said volatile markets begin testate and will help arrest two years of declines. shares down almost 5% at the close. let's talk about wages in the u.k. because wages are rising since 2016 signaling the year-long squeeze, wage growth rising 2.6% in the three months
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since january and the employment rate returned to a record high to match the lowest levels since 1975. throwing the inflation, it means real pay, as you can see, is almost at zero and maybe heading into positive territory. let's finish off with this -- short-term funding markets start to feel the effects of the soaring u.s. dollar and its rise is complicating saudi arabia's efforts to extend the risk of capital to raise rates -- the saudi arabian libel falling sincefor the first time 2009, ahead of a expected u.s. rate hike. the move listing the saudi interbank rate closer to the
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libel rate idiot less attractive for the positives to ship -- shift into dollars. below and the most in a decade and a indication of the domestic banking system. the bottom chart is the difference between the two. that is a look at european markets. vonnie: we looked at crude oil and inventories -- we saw a massive drawdown and that has prices rising substantially by 2.6% at the last count. we have a barrel of crude trading at 65.19. it is showing a tiny of witness the dollar -- and i want to point out that three-month yield , the short part of the curve
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will be moving today following the assumed rate hike. gmm, equities around the index are in the green and these are global macro movers and you talk about some emerging markets and some major markets around the world. currency wise the dollar weakness is showing in other currencies. ratedpulling other dollar currencies so that canadian dollar and the mexican peso are having a better day following many days of weakness thanks to tariff talk. areof the commodities rising on the back of this. mark: great stuff. -- aing a major hurdle ,reen light is given of a deal
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but they have to sell its agricultural technology and still needs approval from u.s. regulators. bloombergned by the eu antitrust reporter, what does this have to do with what they promised to do? packages to sell a worth $7 billion that is quite sizable and the idea is to -- a smaller player in these markets and make them a competitive force in the merge. that answers regulators concerns about the deal that competition becomes less when one company exits the market. mark: will those measures persuade concerns by u.s. regulators? >> that is a question for the u.s. there are big differences between europe and the u.s., which in practice are rolled out across europe and as you know
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there are huge regulatory issues and getting some of these products to get planted and sold. the u.s. market is different that way and that is why we are seeing a tougher or longer review in the u.s. it is unusual to see europe move faster and quicker and simpler and in this case it seems to have happened. vonnie: talk to us about the nuts and bolts and why does this divestment maybe it will be better for consumers? when twoea is that companies merge and what one disappears and somebody else comes in to fill the place. the european commission tries to give them a hand up, and this is alsoat gift -- and they get access to digital agriculture and they get data on how seats and fields and farmers work. that is something that can be incredibly valuable for them to
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compete with bigger guys. vonnie: it is not necessarily creating a new company or player. the number, all told, remains the same, no? >> there are four or five big players in the market and that has not changed. that is what opponents of the deal criticize, and that hasn't gone away. so few companies are active in this business that perhaps it would be high -- harder for similar once to jump in. vonnie: we have one major decision in the box, and our thanks to our antitrust reporter. let's check with first wrote news. scrutiny on facebook for letting the personal data of 50 million people fall into the hands of cambridge analytica.
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the information commissioner's office is pushing to tighten social media laws and digital policy. >> people need to have confidence on how personal data is used and i would expect facebook and cambridge analytica and organizations involved to comply fully with the investigation they can place. i am pleased to say the bill on data protection strengthen legislation on data protection. mark facebook ceo zuckerberg is expected to address the criticism in the next on four hours according to a person familiar plans was a further details are still being worked out. administration official says president trump was warned on briefing materials to refrain from congratulating russian president vladimir putin on his reelection victory. mr. trump did so anyway. official told the ap that
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stating in all caps, do not congratulate. said somespokesperson people were paid to turn out to vote in russia and opposition leaders were intimidated or jailed. the white house is planning to meant to punish china on the theft of intellectual property and the measures will be unveiled tomorrow and will not include restrictions on chinese investment in the u.s. or student visas. 101 of's government says the 110 schoolgirls abducted a month ago have been freed and indicates the release is not over. the government has said no ransom was paid in the release. witnesses say the extremist believes the girl in the middle of a town before dawn today with a warning, don't ever put your daughters in school again. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton.
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this is bloomberg. ahead, special coverage of today's rate decision under jerome powell. eastern.t 1:00 this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark artan and this is the european close. today they discussed military deals and security agendas and potential investments. the meeting follows a saudi shakeup of power.
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bloombergs erik schatzker said that for a exclusive interview with the prince and asked if the search of investments with competition of the saudi arabia sovereign will fund. >> we are in touch with the government per projects, they resorts.objects with we also invited to be in other projects and where going to have a huge entertainment center. media involved in hotels, and entertainment -- so we are invited. >> if you choose or become involved with this resort in the red sea are the entertainment complex that is being built, this is by choice or part of your ongoing patient?
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>> you are very smart -- this has nothing to do with conditions, we do it because we actually invited the four seasons in the red sea even before the tension. we are continuing discussions and we do it because it helps, it helps r.o.i. and irr. investmentut public in kingdom holding? yes,very good question, and this will happen. where in discussion on certain projects so we can invest in certain projects. >> domestic? >> the discussion right now is on domestic arena. >> will you invest in the
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futuristic city that prince mohammed once in the north? wants to buildnt a different structure and it will take one or three years, and if they want business opportunities, sure. we are investors and remember, kingdom holding was the biggest investor in the saudi french bank. we inject billions in the community and other projects. we invest locally in saudi arabia. >> and that will continue? >> that will continue for sure. >> we reported and kingdom funding confirmed that you are going to raise billions of dollars of debt. what are you raising it for?
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>> we are raising $2 billion of debt looking for a second deal for us in the holding. dealsear we did a few big thed this year in 2018 -- prices -- we would like to get some firepower ready for us and we are on the verge of getting a one or $2 billion financing facilities. >> you are thinking of a deal of what size? deal up to $3any billion. we are a holding company and we are open. >> i have heard you are working with goldman sachs. >> yes, goldman sachs, and i thank mr. blankfein for the the $1.6 billion to
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buy a stake in the saudi french bank. right now we are working through them and others to locate others for kingdom holding in the region. vonnie: just some highlights the the exclusive with prince who is a notable investor in companies such as twitter. speaking of technology and social media, take a look at this chart. following thea, facebook scandals. negative sentiment on social media such as twitter about facebook has skyrocketed. politicians on both sides of the aisle and the atlantic are asking for answers and facebook officials have tentatively agreed. latest us to tell us the
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is the mark technology reporter selina wang from new york. what do we know about what facebook executives are saying and what investors are saying and what users are saying? >> investors and users have filed lawsuits and there is growing concern with what the data breach means. the chart you short earlier is quite interesting, the #delete facebook is trending high on twitter and we have prominent people claiming they are going to delete facebook. were talking about earlier the what's at co-founder saying it earlier. what we are expecting is a announcement from zuckerberg and he is going to break his silence and hopefully explain and tell the public and users and lawmakers what it is they discovered and how they are trying to improve their data privacy mechanisms. his number one goal is going to be rebuilding trust with the
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public. vonnie: normally you would say waiting this long from a ceo is a fireball offense. it is a crisis. you have to wonder if people want to rally around mark zuckerberg once he makes any kind of comment because they have been waiting for so long. shares are up to date because he is going to talk, finally. >> it is a calculated decision and whether or not pays off will have to wait and see. zuckerberg has been trying to solve the issue and he doesn't .ant to waste his brain power waiting tor hand, speak out left a huge vacuum for voices to come and and intensely scrutinize the company. waiting to speak out racist suspicion among lawmakers and the public about what is it that he is hiding and why is it taking so long?
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mark: there is so much going on and we can talk about. he faces it from all sides. regular leaders are concerned and i spoke to the justice commissioner earlier and he -- she is eager to speak with facebook. how is facebook going to deal with this when it is facing it from countries all across the globe. surely it is going to escalate. this is a new problem in the u k and regulators have been stricter on data privacy laws and the question is our u.s. regulators want to follow suit? as you mentioned the ftc is launching a problem with facebook violated a decree in 2011. facebook is wary of any potential regulation and investors are reacting strongly to this potential had that regulation is becoming more and more likely. if that becomes the case that
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could impact the bottom line in the way it is able to interact with user data and packaged self to advertisers. mark: analysts aren't painting the worst case scenario. you look at the function, 90% of analyst have a buy rating on facebook. the worst-case scenario isn't being painted yet by the analyst community. >> at the end of the day facebook still has a huge monopoly on user time and user engagement. and advertising dollars and the digital space. they have weathered many scandals before and it probably isn't going to change that, at the end of the day of the advertiser is to reach eyeballs, they will have to go to facebook or google. i've been spending time speaking to brands and agencies and despite the fact they are concerned about privacy concerns, they aren't adjusting their budgets because they have
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to do their job and facebook is the only way to do it. vonnie: and you know zuckerberg is going to come out and say i've been waiting to figure out new strategies and how to implement it. our thanks to bloomberg selina wang. the: it is be otc time and march madness buswell tournament, i bring you a special bracket. can buyer tech we got the s&p? this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts and the special continuation of our march madness battle. it is a important chart and what they mean for investors that you can access on the bloomberg
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featured on the bottom of the screen. round two. in this march madness season i want to touch on a stock in the health care division and the nektars&p 500 because therapeutics the thought netflix in the top performer in the s&p 500 this year. to understand the story better i want to extend a chart to one year because you can see this massive rally that started into upt year and pulled shares 400% in the past 12 months and that compares to netflix, which despite the selloff on monday still holds triple digit gains. #btv is g vonnie: i love the language of that chart. nektar these running netflix. abigail is your challenger. abigail: i am going macro
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because of the volatility in the major averages remise me of early 2008 when we had with sauce with the s&p 500 and we see it again this year. anyone who remembers it will remember this chart and we are looking at the s&p 500 in relation to the 200 day moving average. earlier this year when we were up so much the s&p 500 was above that 200 day moving average telling us the markets were overbought and the most since 2011. there was a connection back down to zero and something similar happened to volatility and we saw a massive correction to the downside. 2011 make money and it suggest a blueprint at the s&p 500 could be even more volatile ahead and you can see my chart on the bloomberg at g #btv 3202. vonnie: such a tough job being the referee.
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i would say you are both winners but i am not allowed, so i am going to say moving to the next round is tatiana. also get a mark: i like that todd young brought something new to the story, and i like the history lesson from abigail and i'm going for abigail, which it means it goes to the gallery, and the winner is? tatiana. ourie: do stay tuned, it is fed special and the decision. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom you called?
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are some a casting on bloomberg tv and radio. ♪ shery: over the next three hours were you coverage a news conference under new chairman jerome powell and we are joined by former governor rick michigan -- and we start with the federal reserve and we find our international economics policy corresponded michael mckee who just arrived in dc. next for making it over, and among the questions people are asking is if there are three or four rate hikes and two or three adjust?r, will powell if i get a chance i will ask them, but it is a good question. this is going to be a long-running broadway


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