tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg July 24, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
>> u.s. equities closed higher before positive earnings news. and health care leading the gains. >> market still worry about a trade war. top e.u. figures fly to washington seeking a solution to president trump's tariffs. >> the aussies top forecaster warns the worst is yet to come, investors totaling to be met -- being told to short against the yen. >> a moving scene is a shift toward a soft divorce.
just past 8:00's a.m.. this is "bloomberg daybreak: australia." the open ofay from asian markets. >> will look at all the action here on wall street and have will play into your asia-pacific trading day. it was deathly and earnings story driving the green on the board today. let's get to the markets now so we can show you how those ended. take a look at the dow and s&p, the s&p fulling further her away from the 1800 mark, of about .5%. the highestll at since february 1. the dow is now at its highest in the past six weeks. the nasdaq doesn't really tell the story of what happened during the day, a close flat but it had been as high as 1.1% earlier on tech earnings, especially on alphabet. let's look at the boards,
there's an interesting currency story that you deftly want to know about. this is the turkish lira, now it 4.88, pushing toward more weakness after a surprise interest rate staying pat. his question of central bank independence right now especially with erdogan son-in-law being at the helm of the central bank. 4.9.d been as high as expectation worse for a rate rise but that did not happen and were seeing the currency and the 10 year benchmark being punished quite severely by investors. gettingere in asia were positive leads. a sea of green as risk appetite returned to the region, largely thanks to the news that china will be rolling out more his goal and infrastructure spending. let's look at how the early session is shaping up. in new zealand, trading is just getting underway.
we're expecting trade numbers out a little later this hour, expecting the surplus to shrink a little bit. sydney futures looking to build on yesterday's gains of about .6%. dollar above $.74 u.s., but the response may be brief. we will get more on the story later this hour but the top forecaster saying the worst is yet to calm. trade tensions and deterioration in risk appetite will have a negative flow on effects. he's recommending sell against the yen if the trade disputes are not resolved. heading over to look at the china story, continuing to watch that. offshore ando onshore u.s. trading as the lowest in over a year. overnight at a different story, . bit more optimistic
the commodities index jumping to the highest in a week or so. and not seeing the pictures of clearly now, but copper also with the recovery alongside gold and oil. that's get the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: u.k. prime minister theresa may has taken control of brexit talks by letting her new chief negotiator with just eight months to go. it was interpreted as a soft divorce from the e.u.. saying they are planning for the u.k. to cross into the single market next march and with no deal on future trade relations. facebook is setting up an operation in china. that's despite app still being blocked. it will be based south of shanghai. it was approved on july 18 with registered capital of $30 million. but despite problems working in appearede registration
to be removed from the government website later that day. hundreds of people are dead or missing after a dam collapsed in southeastern lower. the portion that collapsed was an auxiliary dam that was still under construction. -- the dams has been had seen three times its normal rainfall. is pulling thep plug on her fashion line. 18 months after stepping back from the company over claims of conflict of interest, she said the line is to be wound up. most of her products are made overseas, even as the president decried outsourcing. china granted the company trademarks. several stores have recently dropped the line. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. taking a closer look at the rally that faded on wall street, trading began with a strong push for the bulls thanks to alphabet and other strong earnings. we saw an intraday record on one of the tech indexes. so what happened by the end? let's bring in su keenan with more. su: some analysts say the records maybe the key here. when you get close to an all-time record, it raises questions about valuation. the market snapshot, we got the dollar lower and we did have the 10 year gain, but the semiconductor index is another key here. at one point it was up percent. been yourl 2000 has records, also down 1%. so there are concerns about valuations even when you had such a nice bull run at the start of the day.
here are some of the signs of people run. materials are one of the strongest sectors here. they came in with strong earnings. deere getting a pop out of the farm bill that trump is set to announce. all this helping those sectors. ubs came in with better than expected earnings. whammy,lue got a double shares falling the most in three years. they are having trouble filling their seats, and it was a big, bad day for jetblue. pop,lked about the google did the alphabet bounce help the entire sector? sort of is the answer. netflix falling in the other direction. many thought the momentum would come back in a big way, but alphabet puzzle bounce was cut in half by the close, something
that's very interesting. to's go into the bloomberg find our library of stocks. tech takes the lead, that's been the story with semiconductors a big player in there in the purple. they are under pressure now. tech index.s&p tech makes up 25% of the s&p, but there are concerns again about valuations here. it's one of those situations where a bull run can be a bad they ultimately and caused some concerns. when you are so close to those record highs, you're wondering if the job is really justified, but the commodity spaces where we saw lots of action. oil rebuilding and gold fluctuating, but near the lowest level of the year. bitcoin getting a bit more exciting at the moment. what is the story there? a: we will get to that in
minute. oil has been under pressure. you had a weaker dollar today and some anticipation that there will be a decline in the u.s. supplies. that data out early wednesday will be a good driver. so you have that rising ahead of the dow, but look at that chart, it is an ugly one. in terms of gold, we talked about how hedge funds and the smart money is running for gold. it's near its lowest of the year. a black rock manager is saying for,oks pretty cheap, but and influential magazine in the financial sector, is saying if the trade war's continue to heat up come a guess what might take place of gold and benefits? bitcoin. a pretty big fall from grace, if you will, but the issue with bitcoin is there is increasing talk of an etf, and exchange traded fund that would trade like a stock, and that has
bitcoin enthusiast very pumped up, and that may explain some of the rise in the cryptocurrency as well. at&t going the other way, after-hours down by a little more than 1% right now. it's revenue missed and revised its forecast. what are the details here? reports is their first since the merger got the big go ahead. couple of interesting marks, changing time warner now to war and media. warner media. we did see a tumble in the stoxx, down more than 2.5, so it has reduced its losses. big picture, you can see the pressure at&t has been under. they managed to reduce some of the pay-tv unit losses and that explains what was behind the time warner burger. -- the time warner merger.
see how that plays out in the regular session wednesday. haidi: thank you so much for that. the trump administration is barring the last line to the farmers court with a $12 billion aid package, earlier president trump spoken kansas city and asked primary producers to be patient. president trump: we are making tremendous progress. they are all coming to see us, and the farmers will be the biggest beneficiaries. watch, we are opening up markets. just be a little patient. todi: let's get straight washington. it's quite extraordinary, the president creating a solution to a problem that he created. to quell the concern over tariffs in congress? >> this will help out some
term,s in the immediate particularly as they go into september and october, which coincidentally is both their harvest season and they really ramp up in the midterm election campaigns. but republicans in congress were among the most critical, saying taxpayerry expensive paid bandits being put over a self-inflicted wound. so it has not really quelled any of the concerns about trade, and it is likely to continue to be a source of some debate in congress about whether or not his authority on tariffs should be restricted. that given his tweet tariffs are the greatest, any hope with the deal when he meets with european commission president jean-claude juncker? he is coming in with a
proposal, we are told, that would involve perhaps some sort of alliance among car producing nations and canada, even countries in the u.s. to eliminate tariffs are perhaps some sort of industrial trade andement between the e.u. the u.s.. but the fact of the matter is has repeatedly indicated that he does not like multilateral deals, so it is hard to see how he is able to square that circle with the president trying to get more advantage by splitting up the rivals, rather than getting them all together in one place. ramy: farmers aren't the only ones being hit by the impact of tariffs right now. how are they rippling through the rest of the economy? joe: a set of hearings are taking place in washington dealing with the next round of tariffs. more than 80 companies or industrial firms, or excuse me,
trade groups, have been asked to testify to these extensions, but we are already seeing the effects of earnings, harley davidson, for instance downgrading its profit forecast, companies such as whirlpool, ge and many others citing increased cost for materials, finished goods and parts they need to make, and also warnings of higher prices for some consumer goods that are put together with parts from, say, china. we are seeing that in prior tariffs coming to the u.s. right now. thank you very much. still ahead, with rough seas ahead for bond market, one strategist has some advice for staying afloat. haidi: up next, a look into impacted trade balances as the imf warns of risk to global growth. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: we are counting down to the start of trading here in sydney. were looking at an indicated upside of about .25 percent, just shy of that as we get into trading, building on those gains we saw yesterday which is part of a broad-based rally, risk on across asia as we hear details on china's plan to increase infrastructure and fiscal investment that led to gains across mobile equities. really a beautiful day here in sydney, headed for a high of about 22 degrees. this is what we call winter here in sydney. ramy: i'm in new york and you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." the imf's warning in a new report that global trade imbalances could curb global growth. the imf director of research told bloomberg protectionism is a misguided impulse.
you risk a slippery slope where everybody loses. i think if we can reach a more effective global multilateral system, that will help diffuse some of the trade tensions that can be associated with excess global imbalances. ramy: for more on trade and the greg,y, let's bring in joining me here in new york. thanks for joining us here. looking at the markets right now, it's interesting because there has in earnings versus trade tensions story, clearly today it's an earnings story. when should we be a lark for tensions to come back? greg: that's the big question. what we are seeing is positive earnings news on the back of fairly positive tax cuts and encouraging momentum in terms of economic growth. the have to be wary that these tariffs have only gradually started to be implemented. as more and more are
implemented, then we will see more and more uncertainty on the business front and more and more increases in inflationary bessures, and all that will generally negative for the economy. i would expect largely to see more negative earnings data coming into the third quarter, rather than the second quarter. interesting thing they been happening is donald trump saying we will support the farmers, but also in china, they are saying we will support our domestic manufacturers. these shields, so to speak, or coming up. how much support will they give, or is it just something for the short -- for the short-term? greg: what we are seeing with the farm aid from the u.s. administration is something that is a little bit surprising, innocence. the u.s. administration seems to be shooting itself in the fund -- in the foot figuratively, but then implementing these measures
that are similar to band-aids against the self-inflicted injury. if you think about the broader picture, what we should be heading toward is more of an environment where we lower the tariffs, not where we raise tariffs and then implement subsidies to support the industry's that are hurt by the tariffs. ramy: i think a lot of people would agree with you on that. let me switch gears because i want to talk about with happening with the fed as well as inflation in equities. chart,to show you this intolerant, are you sure you want a secret curve? because what you wish for. here the yield curve has been steepening prevent we are seeing the s&p 500 level off in terms --fed hikes and steepening we've been talking about flattening for quite a few weeks. what are your thoughts? greg: the fed is quite observant of the latest economic data.
it's a little more practical, innocence, and we had under chair yellen. they are really observant of the data. sense,ractical, in a then we had under chair yellen. it's a difficult exercise, and i'm not guaranteeing it will be done this time, but what is interesting is that we have a fed that will gradually raise interest rates and gradually try to level off inflation around its target of 2%, which we are pretty close to right now. the economy is produced from. my fear is that we are probably thinking in terms of economic momentum, and as we gradually start to slow, the fed my desire to raise rates a little bit more and perhaps a little bit too much, which i think is a large part of why we had seen the yield curve flattening over the past few weeks and months. pessimistice reasonable argument is
that we end up getting a short-term rise in inflation, leading gradually to longer-term inflation, does the fed has the ability to respond to that sort of delicate scenario, or is that not coming forth with monetary policy? you're right in highlighting the risk of a stagflationary environment. you have higher inflationary pressures from the tear, an environment that's quite delicate for the fed. fed chair parol highlighted that -- fed chair powell said it would be difficult for the fed, a very challenging environment if you have higher inflation and lower growth. i do believe that from a fed perspective, but they would beadles focused about is the economic momentum. if they start to see businesses uncertain about investment, economic growth slowing, i think they would focus more on that than the temporary boost to
inflationary pressures from the imposition of tariffs. we know that president is not fond of institutions in general, be they domestic or international. have you been concerned about some of the signs he is stepping over the independence of the fed with his tweets and comments? greg: i think it's a big concern. traditionally we want , andendent central banks the central bank is not by various political measures. the key reason you don't want that is because prior experiences where there has been a political influence on the fed have generally led to a dna kring of the fed -- has led to oring and you generally lead to a higher inflationary environment. the recent example of turkey is a great example where there has been a complete collapse of the currency, bad policymaking that goes hand-in-hand with political
ramy: welcome back. haidi: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." a quick check of the latest business flash headlines, qualcomm is said to be in china for less this talks a wristers suit of a semiconductor company. chinese regulators have been taking part of the past few days. the deadline for the $44 billion deal expires on wednesday at midnight. wascomm's interest
announced in october 2016. shareholders and other governments have already given the go-ahead. ramy: sinopec estimates a 50% jump in first-half profit as its operations benefited from higher crude prices. oft would mean net earnings almost $6 billion, potentially its best results since 2007. midstreamy says it's and downstream segments maintained a good level of the. it's all changed at madison square garden after 108 , coca-cola is being replaced by pepsi. all him includes properties including the radio city music hall and the forum in inglewood. pepsi will be an official partner of the new york next and the new york rangers. -- the new york knicks. yet warnings, the worst is
haidi: it is a: 30 a.m. here in sydney. futures looking pretty positive. really this broad-based rally we have seen as markets turn more risk on on news of china's fiscal spending plan. beautiful day here in sydney. there is the sydney harbour bridge. it is about 14 degrees outside. ramy: you are watching "daybreak: australia. let's go to first word news. to theffs returned headlands later wednesday when
president trump meets a delegation from the european union. he tweeted that tariffs are the greatest. russell says john kelly ocher is not carrying a new deal to washington but wants to sound out possible solutions. >> they sound nice but they are rough. there are all coming in to see me to borrow. they're all coming to the white house. i said, they have to change. they send millions of cars. follow-up from last week's talks with president and his into a second week. mitch mcconnell is warning moscow that more sanctions could be on the way. he says russia must not meddle in further u.s. elections. this is in stark contract with the president who cast doubt on u.s. intelligence. boss says there is no need for a trade war but warns things
will get worse over the get better. he spoke to bloomberg as the bank posted second order earnings that beat estimates. m body says escalating trade tensions could trigger a market contention -- reaction. >> and needs to be a constant escalation. i think it is in the cards. we believe that these tensions will eventually be resolved. getview is that things can worse before they get better. pakistan jessica: votes wednesday in a election that is grizzled the u.s. china ties. main partieshree is expected to win a clear majority. that paves the way for fraction coalitions. whatever happens, pakistan's
much -- next leaders have to work on national security and foreign policy. day,l news 24 hours a powered by more than 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's get you a quick update on the markets. trading in new zealand is just getting underway. we have had a pretty flat session so far as we await trade balance numbers due out in 10 minutes. they are expecting that trade surplus to slim down somewhat. the aussie dollar trading above 74 u.s. cents. sydney futures looking pretty positive going into another day of gains after we had broad-based biking across asia yesterday. bloomberg'sre with
global markets editor. we are seeing a big push from the chinese government to spur the economy. we'll be enough when it comes to these financial markets? you see in the dark market around the chinese -- humor around the chinese market. seene media fact we have in the past few days has been significant. this three-day rally in the shanghai composite is the biggest in more than two years. it is clearly what the government is trying to do at the moment, to stabilize sentiment and shore up growth. it is having a bit of an impact in us just -- not just the equity market but in the bond market. shows, thatt stabilization has been key. there have been a few developments in the past few days. massive injection of
money into markets on monday is kind of unprecedented. it was bounditude, to have some effect in the short-term. it is harder to protect -- project long-term there. the statement from the state council, very declarative words about trying to get force behind shoring up the growth situation in china. cautiond not ignore the that should steepen -- still be there for global investors. that is the case with the trade war and the unpredictability of how that plays out, the characters involved on the u.s. side. how it plays through with stimulus later on in the year. many people are ready factoring and policy for the remainder of year, no and into next
one is projecting stimulus to be as loose as some of the big historical moves that happened in the past. a bit of market sentiment stabilization at the moment. that is helping equities. we are on a very good three-day run in china. early indications are that we will have a little tick higher. it is .6% in the us futures. we'll be watching the open in china closely today. now goldman sachs has been an analysis that suggests the underlying column -- problem has not been away. i think that should be taken and analyzed a little bit further. what they are reeling talking about here -- really talking about here is the spread on s&p 500 futures. this is one of the muslim with securities out there, certainly
in the equities market. flexible securities out there, certainly in the equities market. at the end of january, we have it for you when the gtb library, a chart that shows how much that unprecedented, a caught a lot of people on board. off guard. a copy bull who were short these volatility trades that were a proxy for a long equities trade, they got completely blown out of the water. april,ople, by march and have forgotten about what happened in early february and percent to the back of their minds, thinking that sentiment had stabilized. the point of this goldman analysis is that we are now at
the end of july. they are saying that the key underlying characteristics of one of the preceding factors that led up to this, that restriction in liquidity conditions as measured by this spread on futures, is still there. showing the same characteristics that had been in late january. it is an important piece of information for people to be watching. aren that sentiments relatively elevated with stocks in the u.s. pushing those record highs again. ramy: global markets a quitter, -- editor, thank you very much. check gdp for some of the sucks you -- charge you have seen there. topus trillion dollars forecaster warns the worst is yet to come for the currency, telling investors to short it against the yen.
they predict the aussie declining against the u.s. dollar. ruth carson joins us now. what is driving this opinion ere? ruth: a strategist in singapore reckons it is time to start looking at shorting the aussie dollar. at, thehe is looking magic number is 80.5. paris is trading at 82.5. even further.ling it all comes down to trade tensions between the u.s. and china, which could wait on -- weigh on australia exports. going forward, more weakness for the australia currency. what is wetting the appetite when it comes to
potential acquisitions? ruth: that's right. backed by a canadian wealth giants, ci financial corp., which bought a majority start -- stock a few years ago. ceo said recently that it is the right opportunity -- is the right opportunity came along, they would buy a straight -- stake that would complement what they arty have in their stable. they too currently distribute funds for companies such as andeca investment partners, distribute the strategies of monroe partners. haidi: thank you so much. coming to us from melbourne. the central bank of turkey views.s investors worst
kathleen hays is here with what the cert didn't do and why not yielding to the pressure to raise rates? >> that is certainly the fear. we talk about the shocking return of air going on next. that is an interesting way of putting on it. they hold the key rate at 17.75%. they were expected to rise by another 100 basis points because they have inflation continuing to climb. this is what is dogging the economy. let's look at this chart. wow,an see that turkey -- that's way above 2%. look what happened. 8% upn april, a jump from to 60.5%, then another move up to 17.75.
another 100 basis point move was expected. it did not happen. power, that it came to sweeping victory, giving himself all kinds of new powers. this included making his son-in-law the new economies are. somebody was going to support his father-in-law's view that high rates don't stop inflation, they cause it. something that any other economist certainly has not said. beenis something that has used to justify an opposition to further rate hikes. lira,as been hurting the all kinds of ramifications that suggest investors are losing even more confidence in his policies. the central bank is no longer controlled -- in control, it has lost its independence. ramy: what does this mean for investors in the economy?
>> it is pretty easy to see what it means. team in a simple points out that we could see more capital flight, the lira could get even weaker. we could see inflation rising even further. the lira is decline is 20%. that has had acy worse here is the argentine peso. year is the argentine peso. you can see the yield of 10 year bonds. they were up over 18%. the lira had weekend -- weakened. is thecern is that this trend that is going to continue. a little respite for now. cbrc said they acknowledge that the weakness is
adding to inflation right now but they said prior rate hikes are slowing inflation down. let's say, they are being independent, given how much the lira has continued to be under pressure, most people thought it needs more support from the central bank. ramy: let's see if that actually happens. strategist joins us with the vice on surviving turbulence in the market. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> there has been a notable rise in interest rates. the flattening of the yield curve has not been good for fixed income portfolio investors unless they have been very careful and cautious, looking for opportunities in credits. i think it will be increasingly difficult for fixed income investors to do well. now is aining us former global markets chief gore the number one ranked u.s. government bond strategist for 11 years. mantle to be holding. i want to start off with a chart from our library. comes at a time when we have seen speculation about how the bank of japan will change the yield curve control policy. we saw this jump in the japanese 10 year benchmark yield and the
reaction across europe and chinese bonds. , we have talked at length about what is happening to treasuries and the flattening of the yield curve. is this an inflection point? >> i don't think it is at all. it is revealing on the u.s. side that a lot of people were in frightening -- flattening trades. everything was in the same position. things get liquid in the summer. the key thing we have seen is more of a technical correction than it is an inflection point. we don't know if the speculation is correct. we don't know what it is going to look like. there are a lot of central banks out there that are starting to restrain the accommodation, whether it is the fed or ecb. it is not much of a surprise. there is a lot of concern about it. a position shift
with information we don't know enough about at this state of the game. haidi: you would not be alone in saying this is a seasonally quiet time of year. there was a sense that people are trying to stir up >> price activity. -- up price activity. >> we are in a range we have not seen for decades. i'm talking about the 10 year. it is a hot, sweaty summer in new york. the yieldomplacent. is complacent. i think we will see denver before the year is done. the range broke a little bit and everybody piles on. let's see what the boj has to say. ramy: while you say this is not concrete news, it is clear that
people are looking for news. you what has been happening in terms of japanese bond rates. the developed mark did a spike in the past few days. what is it that people are looking for the? -- then? >> in the grand scheme of things, we have to trade stuff going on. we have the gdp number coming out. we knew that it was going to be boosted by people preempting are getting ahead of whatever the trade tariffs were going to be about. we are going to see another strong gdp number after this one. we want to see what happens with these negotiations. we want to see what is going on with the fed and the ecb and whether there is any stalling going on there. i think the sideways action that the treasury market was
experiencing from the end of june until the last couple of days was the appropriate price action for a very uncertain. of time, going into the midterm elections that no one wants to talk about anymore. we saw a bit of a break. here, theing revealed and the the boj speculation is how important central bank policies have been since the crisis to manipulating interest rates. now that we see them shifting, they've artie started to ship, shift, we starting to are trying to see how much that is going to impact things. having said that, i still believe that in the u.s. the flattening of the yield curve is telling us something. it is not just about central bank activity and the fed unwinding the balance sheet.
the economying that is getting to the end of this particular cycle. very quickly, yield curve control here. do you think the best thing to do is just leave it alone? me, leave it alone? i like markets moving on around. -- on their own volitions. let's watch with the yield curve is doing. we have to put in there. we have to price in what the fed is doing. we have to have some anticipation of what all the other central banks are doing and how that may impact things as well. i think, let's see how the economic data transpires in the coming months. ramy: we will have to leave it there. thank you very much. you can get a roundup of the
haidi: i'm haidi insignia. -- in sydney. ramy: let's do a quick check of the latest business flash headlines now. bloomberg.d international is considering an offer for all or parts of the belgian company. this could be the boldest move to expand its international footprint. n may increase its current 3% stake. deutsche bank has
increased the number of university graduates it is hiring. it has seen several federal -- veteran executives leave. half of their graduates were in corporate finance technology. the ceo wants to slash the overall workforce by 10% by 2020. ramy: harley davidson has trimmed this year's profit margin forecast to 9.5%, down from 10%. that is less than a squeeze -- the squeeze that analysts and's -- expected. shares had their biggest daily jump in 21 months, paring this year's loss. taking a look at what we are watching over the next to yours -- two hours.
>> earnings are going to be talk to jime will lowell from fidelity investor. he says the second quarter earnings picture has helped smooth the headlines we have seen given the fact that the trade war and those developments seem to be in the back burner for now. cannot sustain itself? he says fundamentals hold the high ground here. >> we are going to be going into the bond world to talk about where the smart money is headed. hayden brisco, he will tell you that that is not to chinese fixed income. he will tell us about his 2018-2019 outlook. take a look at pakistan folks today. we are looking at the investor implications over the outcome of that.
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asian equities. -- headquarters. separateific stock incident after more strong earnings lifted u.s. equities. the dollar slipping, the focus will be back on china as the shanghai composite racks up its biggest three-day game in more than two years. global bloomberg's headquarters, it is just past 7:00. markets worrying about a trade war. they are seeking to dodge president trump's threats. the