tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 18, 2018 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
>> we are intensifying the work on these issues that remain and we are very clear. what i had from leaders around the table over the past hours since i arrived in brussels yesterday is a very real sense that people want that deal to be done. if you look at some of the comments made, chancellor merkel said when there is a will there is a way. jean-claude juncker said we should focus where there is agreement. when it and make sure it is working so we can do this deal with and that reasonable timetable. i am very aware of the legislative requirements and the house of commons and the period of time that will take. >> jason gross from the daily mail. minister hasope said that you accept the
backstop cannot be time-limited. is that right? closer to home, security services -- is he still a threat to the public? are you happy to see him on the streets? >> on the first point -- if i sort of take a step back and explain what the backstop is and what it is intended for, if there is a gap between the end of the implementation period which has been set at december 2020, and the introduction of the future relationship, if there is a period of a month, and we would only be talking about a matter of months where there is that gap. ensuring there is no return to a hard border between ireland and northern ireland at that time. relationship we want to see in place.
nobody wants a backstop to have to be used. we want to ensure the future relationship dealing with the northern irish border comes into place at the end of the implementation period, which we had negotiated through the end of 2020. about the question on jim trout a, he is an extruded -- extremist leader. if and when any terrorist offender is released -- to: you have been listening theresa may, the briefing of the e.u. summit in brussels, talking about the idea that leaders want the deal to be done. questions about how much progress has been made and where that leaves the process moving forward. she believes a time extension could be one to soar -- solve the northern part -- ireland border issue. maria tadeo joins us from
brussels. how much progress is being made? maria: the answer is very simple -- none. that is what we heard from european leaders. i do want to point out, we have sources inside the room who said the tone was not that great. theresa may was very nervous. their native language is not english. some of them including angela merkel were struggling to understand what she was saying, and this is more reflective of the mood. we just heard from theresa may who says, i am not proposing to extend the transition period. she is trying to downplay the implications of it, but it has serious implications for her government. this means the u.k. will stay very tied to the european union for a longer period of time, paying money to the e.u. without
a seat at the table. you can see why brexiteers will be furious. vonnie: the idea that extending the transition period what a naval -- enable everyone to the border problem, why would that help when there is not a solution? thus: it is coming becoming very clear, no one has the solution. it might be an issue that cannot be solved. someone will have to watch and that will be difficult for theresa may. no u.k. prime minister will ever acept anything that is making line to separate the u.k. from northern ireland or by extension, between northern ireland and the rest of the u.k. it is very difficult and unclear how more time would give her any kind of concession. i think her thinking is the longer this goes on, the less needed or necessary a backstop will be.
when we talk to european officials, they tell us a backstop has got to be there. you can make it simple for theresa may, but it has got to be there. this might be a question that unless someone decides to drop a red line, cannot be solved. guy: the british prime minister finishing her briefing, mr. macron, the french president is still briefing. look for headlines on your bloomberg on what he is saying. the other big story circling around the summit has been that of italy and its budget. the italian news agency was reporting the budget commission would handle this hand a letter to the finance minister of italy laying out some of the issues brussels has with that budget. any issue with that budget? rome. he will be in
the letter does not mean the budget will be rejected. it is a step that is seen as eventually paving the way, if that were to be the case. we heard from the italian prime minister conte who said there is nothing to worry about. the italian government will explain the details about the budget and he said the spending bill he thinks is very beautiful. a point of it is to allow the country to grow, but the concern is that 2.4 deficit figure. we have two bay rate decisions coming up at the end of the month and the jitters are being reflected in the btb trading today. when we hear from european leaders, there are reasons to be worried. you are talking about a big country, the third biggest -- it isn the eurozone difficult to see how to give the italian government a free pass.
vonnie: between four and six countries presented draft budgets that are in question, so if you break the rules for italy other countries may take advantage. there is an intractable problem. is there a solution? is verygain, it difficult to see how you get around this one because if you allow italy to pull the 2.7 deficit figure, everyone else would get it one more time. the italians say, we are only spending more money because we want to grow faster, but the greek government can say that, spain and portugal too. when it comes to the rate decision, this will be a market decision, the idea that the debt load is bigger than the rest of the country. government that says, we will not engage with the european union. the budget is what it is.
the town between rome and brussels, we know -- tone between rome and brussels. seem to just want to not change anything about the therem and i think again, is a european election next year. will probably want to use this to prop up his case that the european union is not looking after italy. he might be running or would consider running to replace juncker. that is the state of play in brussels. guy: maria, thank you very much, maria today are from within the council building in brussels. let's talk about the market action surrounding this. paul, i have to bring up the btb-bond spread. duration andreased
that spread continues to widen. the markets telling us it is worried about the story and the evidence is talking about the letter being handed over, suggesting that maybe the market is right to worry. market isously the there to impose discipline for to a certain degree. europe is there to impose discipline on the italian budget . if they can rein in the spending plans and aspirations of the italian budget, that may be enough to inject confidence back into the market. it is going to increase the worries and the wobbles for the bond market. we had the debt swaps today. after that we saw some proper weakness in the bonds. that was not entirely well received. i think the problem here is that no though -- although italy is able to sell bonds, once it
comes to the longer end, there is not much demand. that is a sign that there is real anxiety building. guy: the average duration is around seven and they probably want to increase that. where does it need to go? the spread makes the front page of the italian newspapers in a way i do not think it makes anywhere else in the world. where is the line in the sand? there has been talk of 400 basis points. we have this date coming up, the 26th. if we get a letter from brussels and we get may be more than that , could it take us over those 400? paul: there is a serious danger the ratings agencies may take italy towards junk and that will cause panic in the market. that will push the spread to 400 basis points and beyond. is that really what the rating agencies want?
seen much wider spreads in italy before and they did not take it down to junk. most of the time, if you look at what the analysts have been writing, the ratings agencies like to go with the news, they do not like to be the news. maybe they do not want to be two strides about what this could mean. a question though, we have a bond italian auction coming up after the ratings. if it is negative, will it face an embarrassing auction or a no-show from investors? vonnie: how much is this taking the attention of market does the market away from earnings in europe? the market away from earnings in europe? paul: it has been holding up recent test relatively well. and iti came down 2%
looks like we would have a grim day in europe. you have the earnings stocks that have pushed higher. or is so momentum in the equities market at the moment. they have had a tough time. they have been on the road. stocks seemed to be trying to ignore what is going on in the bonds. vonnie: we were talking about earnings. assets in to other euros. on that are not italian bonds, how are they faring question -- bonds that are not italian bonds, how are they faring? paul: it is not just italy having budget questions. elgin is under scrutiny. if you look at the -- belgium is under scrutiny. theredoing a little bit, is a lot of people that favor spain as an alternative to italy.
pickupn get a big yield but all the time spain is rising at the back of the market. we are getting closest -- closer to the highest level this year. -- safestes bonds bonds are performing well. vonnie: treasuries, -- guy: nds, the spreadb goes wider and wider. that is sending a signal. what do you think is the signal investors are taking? paul: you have that yield spread pushing ever wider. havehort rates as well, we done a libor in the u.s. which is rising every day. there is genuine concern that we are getting toward some sort of dollar crunch when it comes to the turn of the year this year.
u.s. has plenty of liquidity at home but that is causing fragmentation around the rest of the region. in europe, ecb is not going anywhere for another nine and they seem confident about that, so holding on the german rates. guy: thank you for coming to see us, paul dobson, bloomberg's european markets managing editor. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. courtney: let me get you caught up. president trump is threatening to use the u.s. military to shut down the border with mexico. calls a to top what he caravan of migrants. jpmorgan says the u.s. economy has a better than 50/50 chance of falling into a recession in the next two years. the odds are higher than 80% over the next three years. jpmorgan more pessimistic than
the new york best recession tracker shows a 14.5% chance a year from now. first-time applications for unemployment fell more than expected last week. declined 5000, meanwhile continuing claims dropped to the lowest level since 1973. the remainingys divisions between the u.k. and european union are "few but considerable." she shot down a proposal that would expand the implementation period for a matter of months. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: lots more ahead on bloomberg. we will be taking a closer look at how european earnings season is shaping up with benedikt kammel. in the u.s., let's see how markets are shaping up.
earnings season getting into higher gear today. the french and giant regaining some suiting -- ag giant regaining some footing and what is a challenging market. kammeljoined by benedikt live out of berlin. let's talk about expectations before we talk about results as we enter this earnings season. i have a chart. european automakers the cheapest since 2012 going into this earnings season. expectations are low for this european earnings season. that is a good place to start, isn't it? benedikt: yes, it is. as we saw today, big blue-chip companies reporting, by and large they did very well. nestle and unilever reporting they did well. gannonn the ointment was
-- danone. good, large this has been not a lot of warnings or nesting surprises that we had earlier in the week -- nasty surprises that we had earlier in the week. so far, a good day for earnings. vonnie: is this a stable market? it seems like when investors are pleasantly surprised by move,ing, very massive and equally with some of the stocks to the downside, 8.5% of a drop. benedikt: it is a fairly stable market. if you look at consumer goods not enteringare rapid inflation so they are able to keep prices steady or maybe lift them in some areas. around the globe, things are looking good.
brazil is improving, china is looking good. danone shows weakness but nestle is doing well. very well in areas like chilled beverages, ice cream, given the hot summer in europe. as are the types of companies doing well on the consumer front. , the supermarket company did well at home. that was a litmus test for a lot of investors on how well they do in france. the investments are paying off. if you are in that space and you can keep some of your competitors that day, this is a good market -- at bay, this is a good market. guy: at the beginning of the year european countries were complaining about the strong euro. what do they have to say this time?
or will they not allow the euro to take credit? benedikt: the euro has not featured that prominently. currencies have slipped to the back of the conversation. what people are worried about is principally inflation. right now, it seems to be in check for most countries, but the trade war is one major headache for a lot of country -- companies. carmakers are concerned. the euro, as such, has not been a major issue. those gains might be sabotaged by the trade war which is only now starting to roll and we are starting to feel some of that from companies like carmakers. guy: benedikt kammel, our global business editor. interesting stuff in terms of what is happening in europe. another interesting aspect is the bond market. we have seen the spread widening in europe.
private equity was the biggest contributor. goldman sachs is getting deeper into bitcoin. is of its former partners investing in cryptocurrency custodian bit go. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. guy: a quick correction on something i mentioned earlier. i was thinking of the btp-bund spread. 3.67, whichber is as you can see, is rising. you need to take that .43 from that .37 and you wind up with a yield around 3.25 on the spread and that is at the record. we are heading into the close. ♪
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many of these markets down by some considerable amount. let's take a look at the numbers. the ftse 100 is only down 3/10 of 1% and it is thursday. bdvd, the function on your bloomberg. the cac down one half of 1%. the spanish market today is trading down 1.1%. italian banks under pressure today on a ruling from the supreme court that means they will have to pay a mortgage tax. let me show me -- show you some of this names. we have a bank here and a range of other banks down by some considerable portion in spain. some of the bigger banks are down by a little bit less. as we were hearing from benedikt kammel, trading up by 8.9%. publicists out of france is
trading up. we have seen significant movement today in yields around europe. we focused a moment ago on the yield spread between italy and germany. that has widened by 15 basis points. take a look at your wv go function. you see significant spread widening by germany, or to goal, and spain as well. some of the peripheral markets are coming under pressure. volume today higher than normal but not by much, pretty much in line with where we have been the last 30 days. still, ok volume on a decent down day for european equities. that is a look at the european markets. vonnie: breaking news, treasury secretary steven mnuchin and not be participating in the
investment conference in saudi arabia next week. he is one of the final to pull out. many bank ceos have pulled out, though not all of their underlings. everybody is watching the government and watching to see if the treasury secretary would go. he maintained he would go until just now and he has officially pulled out. he will not be per dissipating in the future investment forum in saudi arabia next week. -- participating in the future investment forum and saudi arabia next week. lower in the leg past three minutes. the dollar has some strength to it. gold futures are climbing, almost at 1231 and outs. crude -- and outs. -- an ounce. the turkish lira is at 5.62, a little bit weaker. it remains to see how turkey
will come out of this corporation between the u.s., and saudi arabia. guy: the biggest market risk is an euros on bonds. firm h assets management tressis joins us now. it has not been just italy, it is also spain and portugal. are we seeing contagion? daniel: i do not think it is contagion just from italy. these countries have all but abandoned reform in the last three years. the new governments are trying to push a very aggressive agenda of increasing expenditure while a moresame time, having than optimistic assumption of revenues. isks when the ecb support starting to fade and at the same time, your imbalances are rising , obviously come in the shape of bond markets and spreads
widening. support,hat the ecb the spreads are extremely low. it is very unlikely investors will buy bonds at these yields when the ecb stops buying them. guy: where does that leave the ecb? does the ecb stop buying them? daniel: i think it has to because the ecb finds itself between a rock and a hard place. if it does not do what it has said it will do, the signal it will send to markets is things are a lot worse than they have seen because of things do not start normalizing the policy, they will run out of tools when the cycle changes. additionally on the other side, if they continue to buy, what happens is these countries that are pushing for a more aggressive spending, more deficits, what they are going to end up entering
into the same imbalances of 2009. it is a very difficult position for the ecb. they need to do what they say they will do and the governments in those countries need to come back to reform agenda. vonnie: the italian-german spread is closing in on -- basis points. at what point do we need to be concerned? daniel: i think this shows that despite the fact that the ecb has been the only buyer of italian bonds in the last month, andrisk actually happens the risk is very evident in the spreads. we need to start being really concerned because despite the fact that the italian government put a little bit the budget, the reality is that spreads continue to widen. need to beantly, we worried because the spreads of
corporate bonds in italy and the spreads of high-yield are also rising quite dramatically. i think we need to start worrying now because it does not seem like the government is willing to come back to a sort of fiscal balance type of situation and more importantly, as the eurozone slowdown is more evident, the fact that those estimates of tax revenues have been presented in the budget work already questioned, he comes a lot more evident, becomes a lot more clear that it is very challenging to achieve those tax revenues. the deficits are likely to be higher than feared. thise: at what point does become crippling to the italian economy and seep into the european economy? daniel: basically, we have to pay attention to the banks. italian banks, pretty much like spanish banks, are very exposed to sovereign debt.
therefore, the contagion tends to happen through the financial system -- as we saw in 2009 and 2010. , ande yields rise obviously the value of the bonds weaken, what happens with italian banks as they either have to buy more sovereign bonds when the ecb stops purchasing or the spreads will widen further. what that leads to a sort of a domino effect into the real economy. the risk is on a eurozone that is already in slowdown mode. this leads to lower and slower credit growth, and what many people are looking at with quite a lot of interest, rising nonperforming loans. guy: our btp's investment grade? daniel: yes. guy: they are now. daniel: the issue is not whether they will be deemed investment grade. the issue is like in the previous cycle, as the market
going to accept them as investment grade? that is the problem. guy: what is the credit risk associated with btp's? daniel: the biggest risk is that -- what is happening right now is that you have on one side, slowdown in the economy while at the same time you have a weakening of the credit spreads. what you end up seeing is that the biggest risk that you face right now is that once the ecb normalizes, even moderately its policy, there is the secondary demand. , whatf i buy btp today currency will i get paid back in when it matures? daniel: there is absolutely no eurozone bond right now that is discounting the risk of a currency redenomination. you will probably get it back in
euros. i do not think there is any risk of the euro breaking up, cicely because governments finally becausend -- precisely governments understand there is no demand for their bonds. something the italian government says all the time, italy has a primary surplus and lots of savings, the reality is it would not be able to finance even half of the deficit they are talking about now, even if it redenominate's in lira or whatever currency you want to reinvent. demand, no secondary market demand for any peripheral currency. obviously, the reason why bunds this level bid at is because if there is any risk up,he euro breaking
deutsche marks would rise dramatically. call, -- daniel lacalle, thank you. isivist investor dan loeb upping the pressure on campbell soup. he raised a four minute video to appeal to retail investors. investors being urged in the video to empty the cans in an effort to replace the soup company-entire -- company's entire ward. 20,000 retail investors, he needs 80%. >> he needs a lot. controlledowns a block of 41% of campbell stock and they have already decided they will vote in favor of the company's slate, before iss and glass lewis weighs in on this. it is quite an uphill battle.
vonnie: it could happen that he does not get all of his boards slate on. but he could still get a couple of directors. scott: there is a possibility. what would happen is if there were enough shareholders who withheld for certain directors on the campbells soup slate, there is the possibility the amount of boats -- votes dam low gets on his own slate -- dan loeb gets on his own slate could be higher than the total vote count for certain directors on the company slate, which in that circumstance he would get three board seats. history,et's bring in because this is going on since august. he teamed up with one of the descendents of one of the founders. together, they have less than a 10% stake and proposed that the
board and the management undertake a structural look at the whole thing. scott: a sale of the company. vonnie: the board of management found they were not going to sell the company and they did not agree entirely with some of that investment spent loeb and his group wanted them to make. scott: they came to the conclusion that the best thing they would do is sell their fresh crude -- fresh food and international unit, and improve the structured portfolio. they think the country -- company would be worth more than it is today. he thinks the best thing that could happen is a fail of the outright company but proposed ways in which the company could potentially increase its value. vonnie: such as divesting something like microwavable popcorn or pepperidge farm. why are they so anti-this approach?
scott: when an activist comes knocking at the door, there is two ways to deal with them -- invite them in the board room or put all your resources blocking them from coming in, and that is what we have here. nobody likes to be told what they are doing is wrong. vonnie: if the stock is trading at under $37 and he said they could get between $52 and $58, you would not be tempted? scott: me, personally, of course, but it is not my decision. they honestly believe what they are going to do will prevail for share -- proved valuable -- prove valuable for shareholders. vonnie: campbell soup up 2.25%. stocks hitting session lows within the last few minutes on the s&p. you can see that with some of the other u.s. markets as well.
the dow is down by a percent and so is the s&p, the s&p down by 1.5%. volatility is picking up a little bit. weakness in united rental, snap-on, netflix down today and trading a little lower. we are talking about the fact that the treasury secretary will not go to the saudi investment conference. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
has decided he will not attend the saudi arabia future investment initiative next week. -- we have waiting been waiting and till right now to see if the treasury secretary would change his mind. he was one of the holdouts until just a few moments ago. a news conference given by mike pompeo following his visit to saudi arabia in which he said, we need to give them a couple of days to figure out what happened to jamal khashoggi, the journalist. he went to the saudi arabia and consulate injured -- turkey best in turkey and never came out. clearly the market has not expected -- there was some way of sweeping this under a rug. >> evidence just continues to mount that the saudi government may have been involved in some way in jamal khashoggi's death. what you are seeing essentially is a cost free way for the united states to express some disappointment or concern with
saudi officials. it would have looked pretty ridiculous for steve mnuchin to go ahead and attend this event, because so many officials, senior officials from business and government have now pulled out. christine lagarde, the trade and finance minister from france, the u.k. example, so her would've been one of the very few senior people to go. this administration was stung a little bit by pompeo's visit to saudi arabia, some pretty bad optics when he visited the crown prince and was shown smiling and shaking hands with a grin on his face. this may be less an action that demonstrates saudi arabia will face severe consequences and more about the optics of looking too chummy with saudi arabia.
vonnie: can saudi arabia get away with no consequence whatsoever, given that the u.s. is a little bit dependent on saudi for the united front against iran? we are ready heard today, we need to keep in mind that they are a strategic ally. >> that was the key message for me out of mike pompeo's speech. he wants to give saudi arabia a couple more days to produce results into the investigation in his death or disappearance. he also underscored this is a relationship that goes back decades. the u.s. sells billions of dollars in weapons to saudi arabia and has made saudi arabia central to its plans for the middle east. the signaling out of the administration now is that this is too important of a relationship to throw away,
particularly when the u.s. says it does not have all the facts. something that is a symbolically charged way of showing that the u.s. is going to take us -- take a slightly harder or more independent sense and will not be totally cozy with the saudis. guy: walk me through the implications of mr. mnuchin, decision not to go to saudi arabia, through the prism of the midterms. featuring in the media. how do those things interact? nick: what has happened here is this is a story that refuses to go. part of that appears to be a conscious effort by the
government of turkey to keep it in the spotlight and continue to have information coming out in turkish state media that provides increasingly gruesome details about what appears to have happened to jamal khashoggi. there may be an orchestrated element to this thing in the spotlight, but nevertheless, it is becoming something where the administration's stance and tosident trump's refusal threaten severe consequences against saudi arabia or really issue condemnatory language at all, is looking increasingly out of step with what is on the .round you also have that from congress, increasingly threatening sanctions. vonnie: up next, you can see the markets are deteriorating between the announcement from treasury secretary steve mnuchin. ♪
the sessionks at lows after treasury secretary steve mnuchin tweeted he is not affect -- attending the initiative in saudi arabia next week. we were under pressure anyway. the tweet came and it looks like we may be getting away with the fantasy. omaine: aesop a lot of havens into treasuries. that is something we really had a while and it tells you how important the geopolitical issue is for this market. for the last field months, a lot of the market has been driven by not just trade concerns in terms of goods going back and forth across the border, but the relationship between the u.s. and china and now apparently the
u.s. and saudi arabia. guy: it started falling at about 4:00 london time, 11:00 your time. what caused that? romaine: we were already seeing because i'm some fundamental factors related to earnings reports, but there has been a lot of attention on what has been going on with the issue in saudi arabia. not just about the political aspects of it all. it is a huge amount of money it comes out of saudi arabia that flows into a lot of this market, whether it is directly into equities or investments in the companies themselves. there is concern a breakdown in the relationship could threaten that financing and that is what investors are worried about. vonnie: why are we not seeing such a big reaction in oil? romaine: this is not really about oil.
you really have to look at the if there is because some sort of disagreement between the u.s. and saudi arabia, it will not be from the oil money. it will be what the saudis versa,to do or vice whether u.s. companies pull away from saudi arabia. that is the fear that you have in this market, and if that were to be the case you would see a lot of companies lose a vital source of income. vonnie: an interesting session, thanks to romaine bostick. reactions to secretary steve mnuchin's tweet he will not be going to davos in the desert after secretary pompeo's press conference. ♪
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headquarters in new york, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power or of power."ce the new warning about border security. let's get right to it. we have just heard from secretary mnuchin. he will not be attending the .avos in the desert >> secretary mnuchin was isolated as a number of european peers were pulling out of the saudi conference. decided not to go after a meeting in the oval office with president trump and secretary mike pompeo. that follows a briefing from pompeo's recent trip to saudi arabia and turkey. he is going to give the saudi's a few more days to come up with their report