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tv   Bloomberg Business Week  Bloomberg  November 3, 2018 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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♪ carol: welcome to "bloomberg businessweek." i'm carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. we are here at bloomberg headquarters in new york. carol: we have a special takeover on the new economy. we have to talk about china and india. we are exploring the challenges the world growth engines face as they advance. jason: speaking of trade the
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, u.s. is raising the stakes. it is said to be premiering more tariffs on chinese imports in december if talks fail. carol: first off, the president is spending his final days on defense, traveling to support republican candidates. jason: white house officials have all but given up, bracing to lose gop control of the house. carol: here is our reporter in d.c. >> there is anxiety at the white house. it is not lost on staff it is a strong possibility democrats could take the house. the most optimistic scenario i hear is maybe republicans control the house by a seat or two. on this scenario where democrats take control of the house, staffers are aware of what that would mean for the second half of trump's term. carol: give me some perspective of what we have seen from past administration and how this jives with what we are seeing
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with the trump administration. shannon: the midterms gives people a good excuse to leave. they did the first half and now, they can move on to something else or get prepared for the candidates to be reelected. this administration has had an enormous amount of turnover. it is a handful of people who are left who were with the president through the campaign. there has already been enormous burnout. staff we talked to are tired. they are so battle tested. a lot of things do not get to them anymore. in one sense, it might be good to get some fresh eyes in the administration from a white house perspective, to get some new energy. it is also this issue of re-staffing. carol: it is a different tone. he is campaigning in states of the people thought were safe there were going to go republican and now it is not for sure. shannon: where is michigan,
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pennsylvania, wisconsin? those states propelled him to victory. his campaign took credit for having the insight to go to those places. those are not on the map. instead, it is indiana, florida, montana, and west virginia. that is not necessarily where the white house thought they were going to be in the final weeks. things have tightened up. about three weeks ago, there was optimism and momentum in the white house. republicans were energized by the battle over the brett kavanaugh confirmation. senate seats were looking good. now the president is spending most of his focus going and campaigning for senators in solidly red places. jason: the governance is one of a handful of new economy themes in this week's special issue, a complement to bloomberg's new economy forum hosted in
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singapore. participants will gather to devise solutions to the issues facing the global economy next year. carol: a great gathering. joining us now is our "bloomberg businessweek" editor. tell us about your thinking. joel: we divided the magazine by pillars of that the conference is built on, governs being one of them -- governance being one of them on the heels of the brazilian election, we wanted to look at fake news in brazil. so many people in brazil use whatsapp, an app that protects users, but also makes it so that it becomes an echo chamber. carol: who knew it was used so much in brazil? each section we devoted to one of these and we try to look at every pillar through a specific lens. india, we looked at climate.
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it was an interesting experiment. jason: it is a very personal essay, you talk about your hometown and traveling overseas. what inspired that? joel: one of the things you can do with an issue like this is make it personal. i grew up outside of portland. oregon is well known for having advanced land-use planning. was a saw there controlled growth strategy which is one that i thought was an interesting place to start when you start talking about the global engines of future growth. from a personal level, in portland, i saw an attempt to not have unbridled growth and be strategic about it. it is a message i carry over to singapore, on a trip to singapore, i was able to look out a window and saw reclaimed
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land right at the foot of where the city has been developed. singapore is planning for growth in a strategic way. that gives us a nice pivot into talking about emerging markets. when we looked ahead, this will be where the global growth comes from. the challenge is how to make this not just be unbridled growth, but something more strategic. carol: can brazilian democracy survive fake news? jason: no sleep until brexit. the city of london's wall street equivalent is scrambling to deal with quitting the e.u. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪
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♪ carol: welcome back. i am carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. join us every day on the radio from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. wall
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street time. you can also catch up by listening to our podcast. carol: you can also find us online and the mobile app. year'sin one of this closely watched global elections, jair bolsonaro won the election, marking a hard pivot to the right. carol: was it a fair fight? real and fake news campaigns on whatsapp has prompted a lot of concerns. we talked to shannon sims. are extremely social culture. they have been ahead of the game in terms of adopting social media. in brazil, people use facebook and twitter. more than any other app, what they are using a lot, that we do not use in the u.s., is whatsapp. that is the primary messaging forum here. for the election, everyone in the u.s. would be talking about
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it, posting facebook -- posting on facebook about it. in brazil, that would happen on private whatsapp conversations. jason: take us inside some of those conversations. anyone who has been a human who cares about politics has been a and their family, some conversations around politics. brazil, in just in the united states, everywhere. shannon: just like in the u.s., you have families that come together at thanksgiving, cousins you have not talked to in a long time, and uncle who you do not agree with his politics. all those people are together in a forum having a conversation about who they will vote for in one of the most important elections in the country's history. you can imagine how things went. what i wrote about is that a lot of brazilians ended up leaving their family groups, quite a statement, to check out entirely
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from your family conversation. the reason they did is because they could not handle the fighting and the phenomenon of this election, the fake news. we saw a dramatic spread of fake news throughout this election. it became a big topic. carol: you use the phrase, virtual propulsion jet for news. social media. unbelievable, whether it was real or fake. this is what we got. there was this incredible velocity of news on whatsapp. a lot of it was not real. in the u.s., we are for my with a concept of fake news. in brazil, this was definitely the first election where it had been an issue. that issue was playing out in these whatsapp groups. somebody's dad
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who shares a meme spreading some kind of information that is fake. it has become a popular meme because it is funny or makes a politician look bad. what would happen is this would get spread in one group and that person would copy it and spread it in another group. but what are the consequences of this viral nature of fake news? whatsapp is a private forum. those are private chat rooms. it is not like you can easily monitor what people are sharing and whether it is true. what we have in brazil is an immeasurable impact fake news had on the election. nobody knows and i don't think we'll ever get a good measurement. carol: from brazil to brexit. london is facing its own challenges. it scrambles to deal with quitting the european union. leaders are deadlocked in brexit talks. there has been a lot of huddling
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in london. jason: with the deadline just around the corner, decades of work to build london as an international financial hub may evaporate. here is ed robinson in london. >> coming into the summer and out of the summer, there were many in the city, traders and money managers who believed this was not going to happen, or there would be a cushy transition to ease into this post-brexit reality. now, with the political situation deteriorating, the uk government and brussels are deadlocked. you have got to scramble in the city to say not only is brexit not happening, it looks like it is going to be a no deal brexit. jason: as this starts to play out who are the potential , winners? who will be picking up these jobs that are going to leave london? edward: paris, amsterdam,
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dublin, frankfurt to a lesser degree. there he are -- they are big metropolises with sizable service industries. it looks like big banking in london and a lot of the action in london will be distributed, depending on what type of business it is and what type of deal they are getting from local governments. is what the contingency planning is indicating is going to happen. jason: is london diminished for the foreseeable future? is this a blip or something longer-term? edward: you won't have this sudden break come march 29. everybody can see what is going to happen. it will really be over a long time. the thing to focus on and i keep hearing this from everybody i , all of the opportunities that could be lost as a result of this was something i kept hearing from
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people i spoke to in this story. if a management firm decides it wants to grow to capture european customers, that is not going to happen. carol: it is not just the financial damage to london. it is also a reputational damage. edward: london has long been seen as a reliable, pragmatic, transparent, entrepreneurial place to do business, with what could be the world's best legal system, another huge draw for business. that is now in a state of play. i spoke with gina miller, the leading anti-brexit advocate. she pointed out that that reputation could fracture. it is no longer reliable. we don't know what is going to happen politically. there could be a general election next year. corbyn could be the prime minister.
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that is plausible. how do you build a reliable reputation as a business center? coming up, the trade war escalates. coming up, according to reports, fail the u.s.ks , may roll out tariffs covering all of china's $500 billion in exports. carol: a lot at stake. kai-fu lee says u.s. companies are not ready for chinese ai. jason: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪
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♪ welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. you can also listen to us on the radio on sirius xm, and in new york, boston washington, d.c. ,jason: and in london and on the bloomberg business app. trade tensions remain on
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the rise, an exclusive saying u.s. officials are planning to announce tariffs on chinese exports if talks proved fruitless. jason: here is taylor riggs breaking down the billions of dollars of goods moving between the two countries. taylor: it is not dollar for dollar. we export to china a lot less than we import. i thought a terminal chart would do good. we have the u.s. exports to china, only $155 billion, versus imports, about $.5 trillion. we import a lot more. on thursday, president trump was tweeting about talking with the chinese president ahead of the g20 summit. saying trade talks are going , well, but we never know. carol: we never know, indeed. thanks so much. the question is when the rubber
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hits the road for the chinese economy. current tariffs are expected to slow chinese gdp growth by half a percentage point in the year ahead. check out this chart. if the u.s. follows through on the threat to raise tariffs further, impact on chinese dd the -- chinese gdp could be slowed by 1.5%. jason: when you see it in black and white, it is startling. for more and how it fits into china's ambitions, here is tom orlik, chief economist for bloomberg economics, and author of "understanding china's economic indicators," a guide to china's economic data. tom: this is part of the motivation for the trump administration. the headline you hear them talking about is the trade deficit with china. behind that is a deep concern about china's industrial policy ambitions.
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china made the mistake of writing those down in a policy document and published it in 2015. they set aggressive targets for grabbing market share at home and globally across all of the key sectors of the future of the global economy, everything from robotics to new energy vehicles to artificial intelligence to new medicines and medical devices. china has a plan and a target for grabbing global market share. carol: i have to ask you, this is not the first time. if you think about over the last 50 years, where we have seen nations say, we want to dominate a market, japan and germany come to mind. what is different about china? tom: china is really big. 1.4 billion people. if china continues to move toward the technology frontier, continues to raise productivity, they are going to overtake the
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united states in be the world's largest economy. that's an existential fear to many in washington, d.c. the second fear is that chinese politics are not like that in germany or japan. it is a single party state, a rival to the u.s. that economic rise comes with a bunch of geopolitical baggage. carol: let us get down to with. what is at stake? what has china become good at compared to the rest of the world? what countries have to be worried? tom: it puts them head to head with germany on autos and taiwan on semiconductors. those economies are the ones of that face the most significant challenge. one of the oddities is that in most of the sectors china is targeting, the u.s. is not a major player. carol: staying with china's plans "bloomberg businessweek"
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, spoke with kai-fu lee about artificial intelligence companies he is funding in china. jason: he is a tie native and a venture capitalist who spent most of his life in china. he spoke with us before the official release of his book. it is called "ai superpowers, china, silicon valley, and the new world order." >> he feels he has a stake in this but feels china has more or less caught up with the u.s. and ai. his argument is that we have gone beyond the theory that companies like google tend to be focused on. we are at the point where the business advantages in the implementation phase. techno utilitarian policy. i have do go back and read a couple of times.
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it really doesn't caps on late what he is trying to do. what he isapsulate trying to do. >> command and control policy. china will put its weight behind companies it thinks will be world leaders. the government has invested significantly in infrastructure, particularly in wireless coverage for the rural parts of china, an area where the u.s. lags. carol: this policy goes to the idea that the government is like, if you want to try something, try it. that is freedom to have the government say, go try. >> it is a great sales pitch to chinese ex-pats in silicon valley who have been frustrated as to what they feel like is the
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bamboo ceiling, this perception that even brilliant chinese engineers cannot advance far enough in the valley. chinese companies, both startups and venture capitalists are saying, let's throw massive salaries at them. saying the trade-off are you coming back to china is having 7 million people's data to play with. jason: what is happening from a policy perspective that may be enabling china to catch up, if not pull ahead? are there constraints? is there a different mentality with the administration or the way companies are being run in silicon valley? >> this is something that people will have to worry about in the year ahead. this idea that now that consumers in the public are
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starting to become aware of how their data is being commodified and sold. that might impose new limits or lead politicians to find political favor in trying to regulate industries more strictly than the bare regulations that are imposed today. we have not seen too many concrete proposals along those lines. the test will be over the next year. california is going to be writing a sweeping privacy law set to take effect in 2020. that may be a blueprint for federal law, or preemptive. two great market powers, economic powers. he says it creates wealth, it creates problems. the u.s. and china might want to work together. jeff: jobs may have to be radically re-envisioned by 2030.
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that is a challenge that anyone country cannot handle alone. jason: the urge to build cities has never been stronger. carol: that is one story. the new economy issue. here is the creative director on putting the world's growth engines together. >> we found a projection to work the earth according to country-size. it creates this map where you can look around and see this change in a visual way. we had this nice line growth engines. it is a nice way to get at this concept for the issue this week. ♪
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♪ jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. closing the cash gap in kenya with crypto. jason: how cities are grappling with air pollution. what is being done to clear air . carol: this is part of the special new economy issue. it is a preview to bloomberg's new economy forum that will be hosted in singapore next week.
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participants are gathering to devise solutions to issues facing the global economy in the coming year. jason: this issue bloomberg businessweek explores some of the daunting challenges these growth engines face. here is our bloomberg economics editor behind this issue. >> we have an idea. we call them pillars, the important topics that are the foundation for the conference going to happen in singapore. this is a part of that effort. the pillars are things like governance, inclusion, trade. we have to tell stories that are fresh and new, and representative of the challenges these countries face. carol: let us get into his story. he takes a look at folks folks re-creating cities, planning communities. jason: he goes way back.
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cristina: this is what everyone wants to do. start from scratch. carol: cities grow up become , chaotic, and then you want to start over. cristina: new cairo. it does not have its own name yet. a new city is being built that is going to be the administrative capital of egypt. it is going to house parliament and ministries and embassies and businesses. that was a project born around 2014. it is moving along at a quick pace. jason: this is post arab-spring. under the auspices of the government, and autocrat, who is looking to impose a different structure politically and economically on a country that is complicated in those regards.
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cristina: that project was born of the optimism from the arab-spring but is being executed from some of the authoritarian elements of the new government have made it possible to move forward faster. carol: it is seven cities. the first city they are doing is the government offices. cristina: a group of city planners got together and took the idea to the government. he said, let us start with one. there are problems in this project. the designs show a lot of water elements. water is an issue in cairo. in order to get enough water for this new capital, they are going to have to siphon supplies from other cities in the area. the yuan is predicting that by
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2025, this new city could be experiencing water shortages. u.n. is predicting that by 2025, this new city could be experiencing water shortages. jason: speaking -- carol: speaking of water nigeria is , dredging up the atlantic to create a new community. cristina: lagos is sinking. it has this issue of not being able to grow any further. they have dredged up, chinese dredgers were brought in. they dredged up ten kilometers square off of the richest neighborhood in lagos. we see three or four big towers in the middle of what is going to be a marina district, renderings showing beautiful buildings. it kind of looks like the high line. gigantic seawall
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that protects this island from surges. the problem is that dredging causes erosion in the surrounding areas and may cause more damage from storm surges. many of them are poor. environmental activists have called this a climate change apartheid. carol: this is a big part of it. storiesthroughout the talk about balancing growth and sustainability. you have to figure out the right mix. cristina: it is difficult. we have seen the impact these big projects have. a lot of the knocks that people who are critical of this push for new cities, that is what we hear. affordability, the criticism is that what are being created are enclaves for the rich, and put a strain on ecosystems.
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jason: one of the themes throughout these stories is you build for what you think is coming up next, but you do not anticipate what is coming further down the line. cristina: we looked at a place in the middle east. it is in the uae. that was a city conceived to be zero-impact, totally sustainable in terms of energy and water. so many of its features are passe. it has this transportation mstem, you have these ini-pods that jet around. the designer said we did not , anticipate advances in electric vehicles would be so fast that our system looks a bit passe already. carol: you also go to the other
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end of the spectrum and look at what is going on in india. far from perfect. you think about people living there are trying to deal with basic needs and that include sanitation. cristina: india was a country where more people have cell phones than toilets. the government, in 2014, kicked off this campaign called clean india. as part of that, they have launched what is the biggest toilet building spree in the world. something like 110 million toilets will be built by october of next year. that is the anniversary of mahatma gandhi's birth. 150 years. carol: up next, air pollution. an update on how bad it is and how the biggest interpreters are tackling the problem. jason: crypto in kenya. how cryptocurrency is
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revolutionizing local commerce. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪
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jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. join us for "bloomberg businessweek," every day on the radio from 2:00 p.m. from 5:00 p.m. wall street time. you can also catch up on our daily show by listening to our podcast. jason: and find us online and our mobile app. carol: the top three carbon dioxide polluters are china, the u.s., and india. last year, you might recall, the u.s. pulled out of the paris climate agreement. the other two nations are still committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. jason: that will not be easy for two fast-growing economies
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trying to lift populations out of poverty. we took a closer look at pollution challenges. >> it is called particulate matter. small, 2.5 microns, tiny. asian cities in recent years have grown particularly infested with these toxic pollution that comes from cars and coal plants and in the india, stoves and the home and burning agricultural fields. carol: go through the numbers. the three of us were talking that it is startling when you start to think about the number of deaths caused by this small particulate matter pollution. what the public health community calls ambient air pollution is almost your classic , mid century black cloud
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of pollution. it is the sixth largest cause of premature mortality every year worldwide. more than half of those deaths occur in china and india. a report just out recently put the number on children under the age of five, 99% of the children under the age of five in the south end east asia live under this black cloud. that adds up every year to something on the order of 700,000 deaths of children under the age of five, once you consider both ambient air pollution and the problem of indoor air pollution largely caused by wooden cook stoves. carol: problematic because you start to think they are born into this. these are developing parts of the world that are going to have
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this pollution. they are going to grow up in it. >> they are. when demographers look out on view, they are concerned, particularly about india. comparablehina have problems. india's population is much younger. they have more of a robust population. that will become more susceptible to diseases being caused by this bad air. jason: what is it driving pollution in india so much? >> crop burning and increased coal burning, automobiles -- india has become the top of this list. look at the, we most polluted cities with 5 million or more people. if you did not limit it to that, the top 10 most polluted cities are all in india.
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carol: among those cities larger dominatedlion people, by cities in china and india. list,ong is on that london, madrid, new york. jason: riyadh high on that list which surprised me. >> eight may be there is an element of dust. in india, we see dust from construction. there are more factors than just soot from combustion. every geography has its own inputs. jason: is this part of what the climate agreement in paris was meant to solve? is it helping? >> it is strongly related to that. the united states, use the public health advocates and climate advocates working together on issues because of
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the source of this particular matter pollution, a big part of it is combustion. the faster we clean up our economy, whether motivated by health or climate concerns, what ever it is, what the wonks in washington call co-benefits. your mention of los angeles earlier is interesting. it is worth looking at north american and european cities. there is a hopeful story. numbers are dire and upsetting. if there is one thing economies have proven they know how to do is clean up air pollution. we have seen that here and we have seen that in the last 1-3 years in china. four days or weeks at a time, there are blue skies in china in a way that was not true 10 years ago. carol: coming up, blockchain is taking off in kenya. jason: an exclusive, how using
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dna to discover your family tree may have unforeseen consequences. carol: you're going to want to check out this story. this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪
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jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. you can listen to us on the radio at sirius xm, and in new york, boston, washington d.c. jason: in london, and on the bloomberg business app. for the last four years, some of the poorest neighborhoods in the kenyan capital of nairobi have been experimenting with community currency, payment vouchers that can help businesses pay for goods in areas were access to paper cash is sporadic. carol: that program is successful. with the involvement of a
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cryptocurrency program, it has gone digital. our reporter explains. >> i wanted to look at the way cryptocurrency is being used outside of wall street and silicon valley. the whole idea blockchain is it is revolutionary. it is going to change everything. i wanted to see if there were real applications outside of, it is a commodity. i spoke to this program in kenya, which is turning a poverty alleviation project into a cryptocurrency project. jason: i started reading it and i used carol's phrase. wait, what? it is amazing. colored paper alternative currency straight to blockchain. program, these
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are poor people who live in kenyan slums. they have things to trade, but not official shillings to do it with. we are going to create a co-op and we are going to agree this paper voucher is worth something in our community. carol: they call it a community currency. it is within a certain geographical area. it helps the community in terms of an economic payoff? dune: they continue to get things they need. even if they happen to earn official siblings -- shillings. the program has been successful. they have about six of these in different communities around kenya. outside of nairobi and in nairobi and in mumbasa. the benefits are within that the man whot started it, this displaced californian turned economist. jason: that was a great phrase.
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dune:, he thought, how to get them together. he found his answer in blockchain. jason: if we were in a village, how would we get this? dune: if you have a smart phone, it is like any mobile money payment. you would type in something on your smart phone and make the transaction. you would not see any of the complex stuff going on. if you do not have a smart phone, you can use the tech space system. it has been pioneered in africa. i should back up and say kenya is a great place to try this because it's gone beyond where developed economies are in terms of fintech. everyone, they leapfrog.
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they went from a country that did not have a lot of people involved in the formal banking , atem and they got something mobile money system and you can take cash and put it onto your phone and pay for anything. a businessweekto story you can find exclusively online, dna testing is not only rising in popularity but it is becoming big business for companies. a small data analytics company is teaming up with law enforcement to solve decades-old murders. carol: we got more from our reporter. >> dna tests were used by cops who were trying to find murderers or people who were trying to establish paternity in will situations. suddenly you'll companies like 23 and me marketing these
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things, discover where your ancestor came from and what diseases you might have a proclivity towards. it has had these weird consequences, one of which was in this subculture of genealogy. people realized by accident you could use this stuff to find relatives you were looking for, long dead or living. over the course of time, people realized you could use that to , find a murder in a cold case. all of that stuff has begun to result in arrests. carol: there is one woman who has made her life's work of this. tell us about her. drake: her first love was musical theater. she was not a struggling actress, but someone who never made it big. she was in commercials. point, she decided wouldn't it be neat to put , together my family tree.
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this was a wedding present. she went down the rabbit hole. this happened to be around the same time people were realizing you could use this genetic information as an adjunct. she became one of the leaders of this movement. she became good at finding things like the parents of foundlings or helping amnesiac's discover who they were. she became this self identified its active but she was a detective. she could really solve these incredibly weird, hard cases. it was not long before actual detectives started asking whether they could help. jason: one of the fascinating pieces of this is that just because you don't give up your own dna doesn't mean you can't be identified by it, even if a distant relative does. drake: there is some debate
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about how far you can go and find people. there is a study that came out recently. researchers at a dna company and cannot be a -- and columbia estimated if you have a third cousin on one of these databases, you can be found. everyone has maybe 100 third cousins. if you are an american of european ancestry, you can be 60% of americans can , be found right now. whether or not you were on it. starting toeople think maybe we should regulate this? drake: the fact that you have these high profile arrests, many of which involve this woman we wrote about, has gotten everyone's attention. people are wondering about whether we should regulate this. right now, it is not regulated at all. some states have put regulations
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on searching in the police forensic criminal dna databases. there is this idea that maybe you could do something like that. it is kind of the wild west. carol: bloomberg businessweek is available on newsstands now. jason: and online and our mobile app. what is your must-read? writes aboutlik trades. and china and implications as the trade war escalates. he reminds us about the long-term investments, the plan that china has in place to dominate industries. we are talking about high-tech industries. this could change the future of china. jason: he does a nice job of giving us the history but also looking forward. where does the rubber meet the road? he lays it out. yourmust -- carol: must-read? jason: dune's piece on the kenyan cryptocurrency experiment i find fascinating. i spend so much time listening to wall street bros talk about
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crypto and the blockchain. this is where it is happening. this is a real world example. carol: it is a reminder that africa is a great test lab for future financial technology. do not forget, check out our daily business week podcast, for some of our interviews including one with the author of "how the internet happened." a gets into specific details. that was fun. jason: history you need to know. clay alexander, founder and ceo of ember. it is my go to travel mug. and my mug at home. it tracks my caffeine consumption which is not great. carol: my favorite this week, sarah cooper, a comedian and smart writer, who has her third book out, "how to be successful without hurting men's feelings." say no more. jason: i will not. more bloomberg television starts right now. ♪
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♪ david: so, you met your wife in high school? michael: we met in seventh grade. david: so you did not date around when you were in seventh grade? you just -- [laughter] david: explain how you invented high-yield bonds. michael: to de-risk america, to de-risk the system, you don't want to be dependent on a handful of banks. david: you came down with prostate cancer. michael: i lost relatives. david: what helped change how we finance things? michael: first you collect the data. david: any regrets in your financial career? michael: sure. >> would you fix your tie,

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