tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg November 30, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EST
mark: argentina's president open the g20 summit today with a call for member nations to support international cooperation and multilateralism. the annual meeting of leaders from rich and developing nations buenoa ares.n mr. trump said he has seen some good signs from chinese president sheeting thing as the two nations try to avert -- xi
jinping as the two nations try to avert an escalating trade war. he said today, if we can make a deal, that would be good. i think he would like to, so we will see. court justicese including brett kavanaugh gathered for their official photo at the court today. republicans have appealed a gerrymandering rule to the high court in an attempt to prevent a more democratic friendly map. president trump is responding to today's earthquake in alaska. said the federal government will spare no expense. struck about seven miles north of anchorage. some damage was reported.
no word yet of casualties. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 overalists and analysts in 120 countries. imr am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is the close. the dow jones industrial average currently holding onto gains. we are seeing emerging markets coming off of yesterday's rally. you are seeing the euro down and newthe dollar inflation data lacking some luster.
not climbing much of it although there are some interesting reports about how this will be the first back-to-back monthly gain for gold. scarlet: president trump will be meeting with president xi of china tomorrow at the g20 summit. that is giving a lift to stocks overall. the 10 year yield is coming down . .t did hit 3% yesterday it had a quick bounce back. what is not seeing a quick bounce back is crude oil, off by almost 2%. it has seen the biggest monthly , more than 20%e in november. caroline: that's a number we are keeping an ion. what a battering -- keeping and
eye on. what a battering. we are looking at ge again. deutsche bank slashing the price target by more than a third. at wellswe are looking fargo. a $23 price target. analysts say they are to have run out of steam. giving, merrill lynch price target. scarlet: let's talk -- merrill lynch giving goldman sachs a price target. isrlet: donald trump bragging about a trade deal. earlier today, he had a formal
signing ceremony for the new u.s. mexico and canada trade agreement. take a listen. i look forward to working with members of congress and the u.s. embassy in their partners. i have to say, it has been so well reviewed, i don't expect to have much of a problem to ensure the complete implementation of our agreement. scarlet: confident, as always. let's bring in our trade reporter. is there any reason to believe the next congress will approve this trade deal? there is reason to believe he will have a tough fight to get it through congress, which is what we see in congress with any trade deal. trade often gets local. marco rubio, the senator from florida tweeted that he opposes the deal.
he is worried about tomato growers. yesterday, we saw elizabeth , perhaps less predictably, register her opposition to the deal. the more important question may be in the house where democrats are set to take the majority. the big question is whether nancy pelosi is even going to let this trade deal go to the floor for a vote. there is a long way between symbolicin bolick -- signing and something that is going to consume many months in 2019. caroline: we have yet to get any word on what is happening with steel and aluminum tariffs. >> absolutely. we heard from the u.s. trade representative this morning that there would be more discussions on that between the canadians, nextexicans, and himself week or as soon as next week.
toalso made a reference steel and aluminum tariffs being something the administration believes were working really well and therefore did not want to undermine them in any way. a lot of folks up from trumphill districts where they are hearing manufacturers griping about steel prices and they are worried about the impact there. that's another thing that's going to play into the debate next year whenever the new nafta comes to congress. we are noting that the signing was done on enrique pena last day in office. i want to transition to what this means for the u.s.-china trade talks. a lot of people said once the
new nafta got taken care of, the president could turn to china and china would be under more pressure to concede or do something. what are you hearing? >> one of the big signals we get out of the white house is they new naftank the bolsters their alliance when it comes to taking on china. part of the argument they are making broadly is they would like to see a repatriation from , sourcing a lot of products and so on. the product you are making in china, make it here in north america. part of a greater economic battle in terms of china. there's something really interesting happening at the g20 which is kind of unexpected. donald trump has built up this great reputation for bashing allies and he has done plenty of that on twitter, but he really into the dinner tomorrow, a number of allies
lining up with him, including , who see inexico him a better position or a better hope in this grand economic battle. we be lookingld to light hiser and navarro as being more hawkish or should we be looking at the man who once -- wants a deal done and the art of the deal. what do you see in the tea leaves? >> the tea leaves are murky and oscillate all over the place. tweets about being close to a deal with the china while at the same time saying he deal withnt to do a china. we are going to see where we are tomorrow night coming out of the meeting. , he wasresting tidbit
convinced tamara night would be a successful dinner. he did not say what a success would be, but that was a pretty bullish statement for those who think some kind of deal may come out of tomorrow night. scarlet: defining success is always a slippery one. as we have been reporting, the spotlight is on a possible trade deal between the u.s. and china. one etf has been caught in the cross hairs of the rhetoric on that trade war. ♪ >> the emerging markets internet and e-commerce etf has an objective of tracking internet and e-commerce companies generating most of their revenue in emerging markets. the reality is it has become a proxy for china's internet sector. 60% of the fund. south korea, south africa, argentina, and russia are the
next biggest allocations. the broadermed benchmark in 2016 and 2017 but the fund is down 25% this year as president trump raised tariffs on technologies in china. players has large fromating its holdings alibaba, tencent, baidu and more. even so, it has an 80% after share, which means a lot of disclosure outside the broader index as well as double the volatility. the fund comes with a high expense ratio and gets a green light in the bloomberg intelligence traffic light system. sure to catch etf iq every wednesday right here on bloomberg. caroline: coming up, sheryl sandberg under fire again.
caroline: sheryl sandberg's crisis over facebook's hiring of an opposition research firm has taken another turn. more, emily joins us from san francisco. any profiting out of this participation? emily: you would expect that s, if someonecoo' said something so negative about your company, would ask is this person shorting the stock and do they have incentive to do so? but that's not the problem here.
the problem is the shifting explanations. mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg said they did not know that the company had hired a republican opposition research spreadat went on to negative news tied to george soros. later sheryl sandberg said maybe the news crossed her desk. now, we hear she sent an email asking her team to look into the financial incentives of george soros, which is not particularly unusual thing to do, but facebook has come out saying we were starting to do this before cheryl asked. she was not the one who directed the research. it's more about, why are we getting so many stories? there is a drip drop of news and explanations from facebook when they could have been more upfront about this from the beginning. you point out, she
101. -- theee yard -- 30 year 10 year yield down to 3.01 and the 30 year down to 3.30. today, it hit that 3% level once again. in terms of industry groups, caroline, jump in here, because we are seeing a lot of tech names leading, not just looking at the 24 groups on the s&p 500. semiconductor names, auto -- companies and utilities. a mixed bag. caroline: we are going to be talking about the fact that health leads higher. software companies. salesforce did outperform in terms of earnings. on the downside, energy once again. that really has been a laggard.
all eyes on the g20 not only for trade but oil. scarlet: oil prices are really, really ugly. it's the worst month since 2008, over a decade. here's what it looks like as we head toward the close. it was a steady ramp up leading and the afternoon, only now kind of rolling over a bit. a lot of stuff happened over the weekend for the cautious optimism to be justified. whateverybody ones to know going to happen in argentina. scarlet: as we head toward the close with about seven minutes to go, let's take a deeper dive into the action. want to walk through what etf loads have looked like going into the close today, the close off november. really looking for safety. if you look at the equity sector leaderboards, you can see health care, consumer staples, utilities, all taking in about
$1 billion or more. it has not only been in equities. in fact, if you look at factor funds on the equity side and the factor side, we have seen value funds taking the most cash. on the treasury side in fixed income side, more money in short-term bonds and government bonds. more money flowing out. look attaking a honeywell. honeywell came out today following a trend we have seen amongst a number of companies weighing they will move -- saying they will move out of high tax northeastern states and head south. honeywell is saying it's going to move its headquarters from north care -- to north carolina from new jersey. shares are generally up on the day. they have lagged behind for the year to date if you want to take a look. they are up a little less then
3% so far this year. that is a lagged behind. there, it shows it down. it has been really lagging behind, especially with the dow posting a gain. interesting to see this right now that they are trying to cut costs. they are moving away from other states. caroline: great perspective. we thank you. , even though it is paring out whatosses, check happened today in terms of energy. the l1 sectors are in the red today. oil, what a day for the energy sector. is it going to continue being a laggard until we get>> to interr
as energy stocks. supply. talk about rally inad a stubborn , and now weyear have a setup where everyone believes the fed is getting more dovish. both of these are dollar negative potential offense -- events. , it's fascinating when you see a big rally in energy stocks like this to look at their dividend yield. energy stocks on the s&p 500 now yielding about 3.25% in dividends. are these dividends at risk if to drop?nues
absolutely. but it's an intriguing setup for energy companies right now, should the dollar rally continued to fade. joe: just looking at overall uy, how much has taken the edge off people's anxiety? >> it's the biggest story of the week. he went from saying we are far away from neutral rates to we are just below the bottom of the range. depending on the range of wideal, it's a pretty range and we are close to the bottom. it's more of a tweak in the way you articulate things. the people are taking it and running with it. scarlet: one thing we need to keep in mind is the momentum at gm, rebounding today. driven -- had
momentum on the dow, rebounding today. a lot of the tech names that had driven it higher may be coming back. the biggest gainers are the staples, utilities. , iittle less than 10 million am not sure is big enough to move the needle on the whole momentum trade writ large. there is so much other momentum that is in as static as a strategy that just rebounds every quarter parent -- quarter. it will be interesting to see. i could be wrong with the big rallies in the stocks. thelet: as we head toward close, we were talking about
momentum. where do you see momentum? is it an energy stocks to the downside or somewhere else? >> i would be looking for a real opportunity in energy and tech. stocks are germanic way lower than they used to be. dramatically lower than they used to be. i think that's an interesting turn. technology, there's an awful lot misperception now. earnings are getting better, not worse. two of the three tech industries have discounts in the market. this tech perspective, i think is wrong. apple is the single biggest stock on the market. tech is interesting. caroline: the sector is a great opportunity. will they lead the overall market high? do you expect a rally?
>> i am not sure. i do have upsides and the s&p targets next year. we expected decent rally over the next year or so. the s&p 500 is trending long-term, average multiples. the r.o.e.'s are significantly higher. does the gold change -- is it at all predicated on anything the fed does? we talked about it last week. we will be talking about it next week. thatou make that case there are such compelling valuations hear that it doesn't matter if it is 1, 2, 3? >>that there is such compelling valuation to that it does not really matter whether it is 1, 2, or three hikes? >> if the fed mix of policy mistake, that makes a difference. it took the risk scenario off of the table and already mitigated it. the reason valuations came down so much is because fed hiking interest rates. those are the two things.
we just had the best earning season in eight years, very solid valuations. scarlet: there you have the closing bell and we are about to put a stamp on it. s&p, and nasdaq closing with gains around three quarters of 1% which is interesting given most of the session we were looking for direction and could not find it. , it hasr since the 1:30 been closing close to the highs of the day. a little action in the final several minutes but a confident push to the day and week. scarlet: if you look at the sector breakdown and caroline was looking at it earlier, utilities and tech where the best performers so you have a defensive and growth group leading the way. on the downside, you have energy off by a quarter of 1%.
you can't really say people are jumping into growth or jumping into defensive, they are kind of going into both. caroline: and what a week. i am looking at the overall superlative's. as good a week for the s&p 500 since december 2011. notably, we see this massive reversal. the question is, have a gone too far and is the market moving too much. joe: of course it will be pretty interesting as we get powell again next week so there is still ambiguity about what he meant and when he said we were getting closer to the lower end of neutral, it was he just making a factual statement and he really changed his tune, that would be one of the big questions. scarlet: whatever he needs to say to maintain maximum optionality, to give him enough room to do with the fed needs to do.
abouthow are you thinking the g20 right now? from your reporting and comments you guys get at mliv , how much are people watching it. if you look at volumes, it is higher today by 31% over the 20 day average and is started the week on the slow side, but it has picked up as the week went along as we got close to this anticipated event. mike: and maybe a little bit of action in there as well. it is tough to predict what is going to happen in the g20. we have's anything learned to predict about donald trump is that he is unpredictable. ofhink there is a little bit cautious optimism, not that they will come to grand -- a grand bargain this weekend, but the tension will follow little bit with this meeting. the big question is, will they follow through with this increase in tariffs of 25% at the end of the year. i'm not sure of we will get an answer from that or not but we might get a signal one way or
the other. i would hate to have to trade in front of this event because it is hard to predict president trump. ben, your take on the outcome of the g20 and also ramifications on china because we have chinese manufacturing data coming out today looking over the rest of the weekend and next week. investors are completely paranoid about this. if you look at third-quarter earnings, the questions being asked on trade relative to companies talking about trade, that ratio is five to one. investors are asking about trade and if you take a basket of stocks exposed to these trade just to put it into , i have no idea what is going to happen in the g20. i think they are setting themselves up to stabilize growth and that is all they need
to do. it has been the worst-performing major equity market on the straight concerns. i think people are misconstruing the gradual nature of this response thinking they have no policy possibility. i think they have a lot in they see it gradually roll down. if we get taxes extended, we will see more of it. scarlet: the question of the day is what would a trade truth between the u.s. and canada be most bullish for? which market would benefit the most? what is your take? ben: i think investors are paranoid by the impact of trade, overly paranoid. we talk about this huge multiple deregulating and regulatory's and i think multiples expand. global equities, the beats are in global equities. also, europe, i would argue they have been the biggest loser from the trade concerns. joe: we sawtek again today and
this week and i'm trying to figure out -- let's say we gave for a while and people like a more, will they pile back into the same names that were so hot drop the summer? mike: i think there is still a lot of question marks about facebook, faang stocks, apple. in today's price action, with some of these lesser-known software companies like workday lunk, which- sp everyone likes to say splunk, pretty interesting moves from lesser-known names. i don't think they were even s&p 500 companies. tech is still your place for growth, and i think people might look down the letter a little bit and try to get into some of these names and ride the next big thing. splunk fell 35% since
august but surged in the last few weeks up another 30% since then. the shows amid the carnage people might start looking for that. mike: definitely one of the momentum plays for sure. caroline: i'm interested to go back to what then was saying about the opportunities in europe thinking they have been oversold in particular on the back of the trade tensions. beenpt her week we have hearing about brexit concerns and that is something coming after the g10. how much do think that would become the key concern for the market posted g20 or is that looking at the u.k. and not much else further for repercussions? ben: i sort of think this is a european problem rather than a global issue. i don't want to stand to bullish on europe because i'm not -- too bullish on europe because of not. growth despite earnings being impressive.
what is driving this is economic uncertainty. it is being held up by concerns of italy, brexit, a host of european elections next year so my fear is these heightened levels of policy, uncertainty, and low levels of and earnings capxnue in europe -- of and earnings continue in europe. ecb -- over an extended. of time -- extended period of time. scarlet: coming back to the u.s. for a moment, as we have seen the stock market race towards its highs as we got towards the close, we saw more gainers than losers in the dow. within the dow, the loser of the
day was goldman sachs off by 2%. goldman has lost about a quarter of its value so it has really gotten hammered. have you police of for my goldman sachs facing issues with regards to the malaysia mdb investigation with the fate of financials overall? ben: i would be cautious on financials. we think it goes well below three and you end up with a flat yield curve. that is not a great environment for financials. i think they are a value trap in -- yield curve steepen's .teepens scarlet: thank you both. that does it for the closing bell and for me. lisa is stepping in for me or we look ahead to president trump and president xi jinping's big day at the g20. this is the market close. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪
caroline: live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i'm caroline hyde. lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz in new york. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. romaine bostick is off today. caroline: a snapshot of u.s. stocks in the green. the best week we have had for the s&p 500 since 2011. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" call it the g20 -- hotel hack attack.
highlyrized access to sensitized information. investors will blow watching electy as the president begins his term tomorrow with a speech. the g20 summit is officially underway in but authorities in all eyes are on president trump reaching with xi jinping. some struck an optimistic tone today. very hard.orking if we can make a deal, that would be good. they would want to and we would like to. we will be meeting with president xi and a little while, but for the most part, people , larry kudlow is dealing with them on a constant basis. there are good signs. we will see what happens.
caroline: for more, let's welcome your asia group analyst. optimism? >> we are a little bit more pessimistic than trump has seemed today mostly because of the fundamental issues here which are not even close to resolved. it depends on what your goal is. there is certainly a reason to be optimistic about the idea of a deal to talk more coming out of this meeting, but not much more than that. joe: what in your view is the immovable sticking point that even if it does prevent some deal this weekend that it will ultimately prevent a real and lasting. jeffrey: the biggest one is the issues raised in the 301 report in march which has still not been resolved but not even discussed in any serious capacity. protection of the ip of u.s. companies in china, forced technology transfer, industrial
policy in china, and i think you have a broader set of views around the strategic relationship between the u.s. and china. the way competition in the south china sea over the direction of policy to north korea, run a regional issues are feeding into the conflict -- broader regional issues are feeding into the conflict. then you have the u.s. stepping technology ing of the u.s. and is trying to build a coalition around that. there are these broad, fundamental ideas -- issues that have not been raised or addressed. lisa: i want to push back a little bit because it is a likely that nothing good will come of this or no resolution will occur or emerge here. why is president trump trying to put out there that he is optimistic about a deal? should be clear, i'm not saying nothing will come out of this weekend, there is a good chance you could see some announcement of what both sides will call a deal.
i am urging caution about the way that is received. i think the way his -- reason his tone has changed is that he has a variety of political beaten republicans badly in the midterms, trump is under a lot of pressure from the building pressure of the mulder -- of the mueller investigation and a lot ois quiet about what the trade war is having as an effect on the u.s. economy. with that said, i do not think his hardline advisors or trump himself believe they have put enough pressure on china to give on some of those issues a few minutes ago. caroline: would china give and could china give? jeffrey: it is a good question. i think you could separate clearly things that are negotiable for the chinese from things that are just impossible for them to do like repealing cybersecurity loss for example which is reportedly big as a demand or request of the u.s.. things like that that touch on
sovereignty are going to be out of bounds for she and the people around him. can they give some ground on u.s. agricultural imports or on u.s. natural gas for example, that stuff is much easier. issues that request try to compromise its own sovereignty to deal with u.s. concerns about its economy are probably know goes for the chinese leadership -- no-goes for the chinese leadership. have market extent volatility and pressure of the white house, at least in terms of wanting to create the peers several momentum towards deal -- the purest of momentum toward a deal? jeffrey: it has been clear to us since the summer when it seems like the white house delayed rules on investment restrictions with concern out of market reaction. in the last few weeks we have seen more volatility in the markets which feed into cautious statements from the white house advisers.
that is a consideration. the question becomes is trump so concerned about that stuff that he is willing to set aside his real concerns about using this opportunity to shift the u.s. china relationship in a way that is fundamental, which until the last few weeks, had been his main concern of this effort. that,possible he abandons that i don't know that we had the evidence for that quite yet. lisa: you put out a note saying the likelihood of the u.s. increasing the tariffs on the $200 billion of chinese goods coming into the u.s. moved from 10% to 25%. so there is an 85% chance of this happening. why and what you looking at out of this meeting to push those figures of higher? jeffrey: i think the key question coming out of the meeting on saturday is whether the u.s. commits to delay the
the tariff increase coming on january 1. if so, for how long? it is unlikely the u.s. would commit to delay it by anymore than the 60 days or 90 days at the very most but i think 60 is the most likely outcome. as we look further into the future, our concern is that these issues are so fundamental, to expect them to be resolved in three months of --.tiations is then you have to have the patience of trump going through years and months of negotiations to get there and that is our to see. lisa: thank you so much, jeffrey wright. lisa: hackers checking in, the latest from the fallout of the marriott hotel's data breach. that is ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: time for look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. terminal users are reading about the newest trends in u.s. alcohol. brands are defying the trend. they benefit from a move towards premium products. onery brands are learning may to keep loyalty to customers is to make them feel involved. they are creating an unofficial the ft where customers meet executives and talk about where they want the brand to go. gwyneth paltrow hosts. you can read about that on bloomberg.com. tictoc on twitter is reporting a circulating on venezuela about the going rates.
it takes $7,000 to erase a criminal record. you can follow all of these terminals on bloomberg.com, and on tictoc on twitter. lisa: marriott international starwood reservations database has been asked compromising personal information including passport numbers, home addresses , of up to 5 million guests. this goes back as far as 2014. our next guest knows cyber threats first and foremost. let's welcome kevin from san francisco. thank you so much for being with us. i highlighted the point that this goes back to 2014. they failed to identify this for four years. how concerning is that to you? kevin: clearly, that means they had a lot of access and i think we are seeing the results in terms of the amount of data that has been exposed over that period of time.
kevin, we sort of get tired of these hack stories because there are so many, seemingly all the time of 100 million people getting the data stolen here and there. what is the significance for the average person if they are in hacks? the ta kevin: there was a famous quote back in the late 90's "privacy is dead, get over it." beyond that, we should take a more proactive approach. as individual consumers, we are value -- our data is valuable. we should be proactively out there not only looking for breach issues but looking at what begin give away naturally in terms of posting on social networks or volunteering our dna for genealogy for example. caroline: how do we proactively look for breach issues? kevin: i would think of it again
less in terms of breaches, although in this case, marriott is a very -- had a very responsible job of providing services for monitoring, but think of it in terms of your own information. if you have not protected your own information by offering credit freezes or you are the type of person that reuses there password for your bank account and email, we would suggest you reconsider that and keep up with modern security practice. lisa: how many hacks do we not hear about but could be substantial? kevin: i think hacking is a way of life, just like burglary in a big city. most of us that have lived in an urban environment take her cautions like lock your doors, do things your grandmother told you about walking -- never walking in certain areas late at night. i think the same is largely true with the internet. joe: are there any regulatory or legal things to
improve the situation? kevin: regulatory and legal persuasion is always available as an option, but i think we see companies recognize hacking and being hacked is a liability in and of itself. wouldtural market forces want to have folks avoid the situation and the brand degradation with it. caroline: do you have a viewpoint on m&a situations? this is a legal headache for with this exposure to the issue. how much more do when they are buying digital assets? kevin: that's a fascinating question. like any other liability, hacking is a liability. just as companies would have to write off massive amounts of brand goodwill when they underestimated the brand power, i think there will be additional considerations given to the probability of hacks depending on the company's security
posture. lisa: who has the upper hand, the hackers or security individuals trying to protect against that? kevin: it is an interesting question because we are talking about two businesses. on the one side, you have businesses of protection and defense, and the speaking from that perspective, i would like to say just as you don't hear from rampant -- here about rampant muggings, progress has been made in cyber defense. the other side, attacks our business. it is a multibillion dollar industry with the same type of supply chain issues and multitier economics as any large industry. it is not going away. caroline: great context, kevin. thank you. a quick check of business flash headlines. telecom company keeps trying to cut debt. the borrower is a group of it
investors. carlos ghosn will spend more time in a japanese jail. detentionextended the of the chairman and he is facing allegations of financial misconduct. he is a gel for 10 days and the court has added 10 days to that. in germany, prosecutors resumed their rate of deutsche bank offices. employees once again face the prospect at some of their annual bonus will be swept away by scandal. cut costs by about 80% because of legal expenses. that is your business flash update. up, we are staying with the banks of the federal reserve investigation and it is ramping up. more bad about the stock tumbling this year. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i am mark from two with bloomberg's first word news. the united states, mexico, and canada have cap the year of intense negotiations by signing a new trade deal to replace that the. an agreement push by -- replac e nafta. are a need of immediate protections -- provisions. a federal judge is hearing from challenge of a subpoena from the house judiciary committee. the panel wants to talk to him about decisions made by the fbi in 2016 including a call not to recommend criminal charges against hillary clinton for her use of a private enough server
-- private email server and possible coordination between russia and the trump campaign. comey said he would appear in a public hearing but wants to block a subpoena that would require him to appear in a private closed door interview. house democrats unveiled more forils of their first bill the new congress, a government package that would limits big money in politics and make it easier for citizens to vote, and require presidents to do close the tax returns. a congressman of maryland is the primary sponsor of the legislation called hr one. >> this class has told us this is what the people want to see so we are building a package for them. it is false from across the political spectrum that are demanding, not just democrats, it is independent and republicans. mark: he hopes to have the legislation ready for the first day of the next congress on january 3. this will be modeled on legislation he and more than 160
house democrats introduced in may. police in hundreds of yellowjackets protesting high taxes and living costs clashed in brussels today. police fired tear gas and water against people who try to approach government buildings. they also attacked to police vehicles overturning one in setting both on fire. about 60 people were arrested. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. as is bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. caroline: -- more thanman has federal law enforcement to deal with. the federal reserve is investigating goldman as well. while he doesn't have the power of a criminal prosecutor, it can sanction individuals and companies. let's bring in our u.s. finance minister -- editor.
>> we knew there was a criminal investigation going on against .ndividuals like goldman the federal reserve is also looking at goldman and specifically at the firm's controls and compliance functions and how people were able to get around those in this instance. caroline: a key concern is that one bank has already pleaded hinty and he seemed to that this is all in due process over at goldman. this is part of the culture. michael: i think that will be a key part of how this develops is goldman is making the case to authorities that this was a few rogue actors. you heard david solomon talk about his outrage at the behavior of these few individuals. some of those individuals would
say this was common practice to go around compliance. what people at, goldman specifically in asia did you hide things from clients or are these one-off incidents. joe: goldman has really been getting hit with the stock off 17%. as part of the anxiety here the unquantifiable risk? thing, is just the 1mdb but when it gets to these questions of overall cultural questions, whether going around compliance is something more frequently seen, it is really hard to put a number on what this could mean for the banks. michael: i think that is a big piece of it. some analysts have try to put a number on this. goldman and their regulatory filing warned people there could be significant fines, but the question is, that reputational
risk and also the aisle on affect -- pile on affect. do other regulators get involved? that is the fear from investors is that this becomes one thing after another and drags on for more than a year. as goldman loses, does anyone win or is anyone picking up more business over in asia on the back of this do you think? she was asking if anybody is picking up business from the market share. michael: i think that is yet to be seen at this point. this has dragged on for quite a while in terms of the original bond deals. in terms of these allegations coming out, you just have the guilty pleas released earlier this month so it is yet to be seen. lisa: do we get a sense of what the federal reserve can do? i think it's a pretty severe
actions with wells fargo but let's say they did find compliance reaches, what then -- breaches, what then? michael: they could make goldman change things about the way they did things, there could be monetary penalties, so there is a wide range. the wells fargo instance was a new one that they had not used that power before. ofically, you see some sort a fine for your trouble. caroline: michael, thank you very much for your perspective. let's stay with the bank because the berkeley ceo spoke with david westin today. they talked about how the bank is preparing for a "very hard brexit" in march of next year. >> if there is a hard brexit where there is not an understanding between the eu and u.k., on an orderly separation of the rules of trade, i think the governor, while it is hard
aspredict, i think that is good of an estimate as might what happened. i think you see it in currencies were sterling is trading and in terms of uncertainty in the equity markets in the u.k.. this is a dicey time. i think the sooner we can find clarity as to how the exit will occur in an orderly fashion, i think it is important for the united kingdom's economy, and i don't think the governor is exaggerating. we all need to listen carefully. david: as ceo of a major bank, how do you plan for that? do you have to plan for a hard brexit no matter what because you can hope for something better but not guarantee it? >> the sunday after the referendum boat -- vote, the whole executive committee met preparing for a hard brexit. anwe have been hoping for
organized separation, but we have been preparing for a hard one. we had a bank subsidiary in ireland and we significantly expanded the capacity of that subsidiary in dublin. we are in the process right now, almost done, with relicensing all of our branches in europe from milan to madrid. people so we200 will move 1200 people from the british bank to a european bank without moving a single body. whether it is contractor capital, we are set up so , if therey in front is a hard brexit, we can do tomorrow everything we can do today with our client base across europe and the u.k.. david: if there were a hard brexit, how would berkeley look different -- barclays look
different? surviving it and looking the same are two different things jes: whenever we have -- things. jes: whenever we had a referendum vote occur, we had a place where we bring together, lawyers, risk managers, etc. from all over the bank and think about what might happen if there is some sort of shock like the referendum was or like a hard brexit would be. we are doing that right now. so what happens if we are financing a restaurant chain in the u.k. which is importing fresh goods from farmers in europe and all of a sudden the goods cannot cross the border, go bad, who is responsible for that and what do we do and what is our risk? what industries will be hurt? we are a large provider of the agricultural industry in the
u.k.. 25% of every agricultural loan in the united kingdom comes from barclays. every farmer gets a subsidy from the european union. that stops with a hard brexit in one day. how do we deal with that? under the farmers deal with the? we has a bank -- how do the farmers deal with that? stress test, the showed and we are mindful of where the risks are. here to help the united kingdom go through whatever comes its way, hard brexit or not. caroline: that's the barclays ceo speaking with david westin. obrador takesez the reins. why we watch his speech saturday -- we are investors watching his speech saturday and so are investors. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
is: mexico's president-elect taking the rain this saturday -- gnsns this saturday -- rei this saturday. president trump wrote great reviews. --much better than have to better than nafta. let's bring in eric martin from mexico city. thank you so much for joining us. what is the number one menu item on his presidency? what is the first thing he will tackle? eric: there are a pair of menu items. ow low was elected -- onl outelected on rooting criticism.
the ministration is going back further than accusations of corruption against governors and federal officials in some recent administrations. that is something the mexican public is absolutely exhausted. as well as the 12 year drug war. and the number of homicides we have seen reach a record. lisa: so far, his actions have not been well over -- well received at all. he is left the bond yield -- bond yields climbing to the highest level in years. the feel andat is mexico. eric: he was elected and sees his mission as furthering the
interests of the people who he perceived as the mexican people. the public at large. the mediumy where income annually is around $15,000, it is worth asking the question, what kind of a president should the country have and who would benefit or which people is the president meant to serve? he has ruled out a lot of programs to help the elderly, doubling their pensions to roughly $100 per month as well as programs for unemployed youth to keep them away from crime. heot of expectations that may not be the best president for investors, but for the millions of mexicans affected and had never been able to vote for a president to serve those interests, amlo is serving directly those interest. caroline: do you think he will care about how the markets react?
donald trump cares a lot about it in the u.s.. will in any way the president care about the market? eric: that is a good question. we have had two groups of it pfizer's during this five-month transition. who believeideals in a more status approach to the economy in ideas like canceling and building refineries and things like that. and the other group is the more academic group that is concerned about the markets and business reaction. we have seen comments from that group that amlo, his greatest opposition, will be market reaction in the level of the peso because of the inflation expectation -- inflation implication. this is something they are keeping in mind.
especially in an environment where he and his allies will have a super majority in congress or be close to it. an ability to change the constitution almost at will. that mark is the potential of a steep selloff and for a potential financial crisis let's say if things were to go badly enough. is that something they will keep in mind and rein them in rather than the elected legislative, political opposition? joe: what relationship is amlo likely to have with president trump? about if the two of them gets along or see i die on challenges facing u.s.-mexico relations? eric: i understand from the sources i speak with that president trump, in private, prefers -- refers to him as juan trump, like a mexican version of himself. got the most amlo
votes ever for a mexican president is something donald trump values because he sees it as a popular mandate coming from the previous presidency and record lows of approval and popularity. from the sources i speak to, there is a lot trump admires in amlo. we have seen a lot of platitudes and documentary comments from one to the other between the two of them. the big question is, can a honeymoon last particularly with the care event issue in tijuana, trump's threats to close the border, pressure on amlo to stand up for human rights, other migrants from central america who people see it having a on connection to people in mexico. those are the questions we will see tested early in the presidency beginning on saturday.
caroline: eric martin, thank you so much. now, a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. softbank is confident in their ability to gauge demand for the ipo of the telecom business. for the first time ever on the stock exchange, a stock will debut without us price range -- without a price range. shares will begin trading december 19. money talks, especially in relationships. when looking for a partner, 56% of americans want someone to provide financial security versus 44% who wants to be head over heels in love. that is your business flash update. that one took my attention. who says romance is dead because overall, we have respondents
saying they would rather --oritize it seem on he over money over love. lisa: it's interesting to me because there are affluent people saying money speaks more for them so i wonder how it is for people who have made that a priority thing. joe: and maybe people who are not affluent, maybe that is how they got to be affluent. joe: that a cynical, joe. [laughter] no, maybe they were calculated with their partners. caroline: a healthy dose of cynicism. preferred a career focus partner over a socially conscious makte. american and canadian cannabis companies are the largest but which is better to take over the industry -- better poised to take over the industry? that is next.
lisa: it's friday afternoon so we will be talking about candidates dashcam abyss -- cannabis. canada legalized recreational cannabis use in october, however, the u.s. market is larger. which country has a better prospect of capturing the global cannabis market? -- graring in idea motto craig. who is going to win? >> canada has the head start and it is legalized federally which allows them to do things that we cannot do here. the u.s. is catching up though. there is a lot of skepticism that canada could ever beat us at this. we are a bigger country, this is where brands are made. caroline: are the brands already being made in canada? who currently at the moment has any sort of brand value when it
comes to -- --the brands in california the brands are in california. the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world and have legal cannabis which is where the brands are being made. --: does the patrick patchwork nature of u.s. legalization not only on a state-by-state basis, but each state has its own particular regulation, making it harder for anyone to make brands in the u.s.? craig: it does. it is difficult to market. google won't take the money, instagram takedown accounts, so it is hard to market. there is interest in las vegas. 40 million tourists go to las vegas every year and that is where i would want to have a dispensary because people from all over the country will see my brand. your question is very difficult apt. your question is
it is difficult to create brands in the u.s.. lisa: what company in the u.s. will plow in first? craig: nothing will happen until it changes federally. the tobacco companies are so stung under regulatory pressure, they will not poke the bear or do anything risky. until you get federal legalization, which i think is a ways off if you talk about marijuana, i do not think eyes will touch it -- don't think the guys will touch it. craig, thank you. from us all for "what'd you miss?," that is it. lisa: "bloomberg technology" is up next in the u.s.. joe: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪
mom. ♪ emily: i am emily chang in san francisco. coming up in the next hour, checking out of marriott. shares plunged as the hotel chain closes one of the biggest security breaches in corporate history. personal data from hundreds of millions of guests left address. are sett trump and xi to meet for dinner at the g20. will they find a new deal? sandberg
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