tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg December 11, 2018 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
will slow. none of that can be troubling to us. we still like this market. we don't think the trajectory is quite a sizable a, but fundamentals are really strong for the most part. semis are stuck in a cycling autos are trading back and forth, but the way we think of it is that we may not have of a fed put as we once did, but we have a u.s. consumer but. if the labor market is strong, there is underlying growth and you go from there. caroline: there we have the closing bell. you talked about the semis and we had technology leading the gains throughout and managed to cling onto them going into the bell. --es to losses to the gains gains to losses to games. romaine: some of the defensive sectors in the leading sector staples, foodfood beverage and tobacco. that is not seleka market that is very risk on.
among the big decliners, you have diversified financials. you do have the nasdaq outperforming but you have tobacco and consumer staples. hard to suss out a theme. it has certainly been a few days of underperformance on the bank situation. let's dive deeper into the market reaction. taylor, what were you watching? ? taylor: i watching oil because we are not talked about oil too much today. it is rising nonrenewed optimism plus willck -- opec level out supply. the latest cut, saudi arabia said they plan to produce 10.2 million barrels per day. that is not hundred thousand lower per day since november. reducewill deduce -- 11000 and eight lower than november -- 11,000 per day lower.
they are becoming more and more reliant on russia to cut their output. arabia is trailing third. we knew what this saudi arabia getting russia and some of the was key.es on board that seems to be driving the markets. one trader said having russia come out with its specific number was not enough to get the oil markets moving higher. abigail: let's dig into volatility that joe, scarlet, and caroline were talking about. here is a two day chart that started higher on monday and lows down nearly 2%. at the highs today, up 1.4%, then down. dip,u bought last week's the s&p 500 is down more than 3%. up over the last two days. it seems that the dip buying strategy is not working. let's take a look at the vix. this is a busy chart.
that is how much noise we had from a trading basis here. this is out of late september. the vix shooting higher each time it moved back above one of these little yellow lines. it tells you the by the differs are failing because we see an elevated vix. we are coming right above this range. on the vix is not superhigh, it has a 20 handle as opposed to the 11 handle it had before. it appears the entire range could break through the upside. if that is true, it will be a sell the rally but as opposed to buy the dip. speaking of volatility, take a look at what the dow jones average did today. it's one more than 500 points from its intraday low to its intraday high. this is the fifth straight day or we see an intraday swing of 500 points at least. the longest streak since the february swoon we had six straight days greater than 500 including four days the dow was more than 1000 points. at the high point of the day, 29
of the 30 stocks were in the green. p.m., low point, 1:53 lots of stocks were in the red. we are 14 of the components higher led by nike, verizon, and procter & gamble. caroline? caroline: thank you. of all the technicals and indeed touching oil. which was selling shares, according to dow jones, has priced them at $13 per 80th. yes -- ads. around about $1 billion public offering. they were looking at 1.2 billion. joe: not surprising to see these prices lower. market environment and
particularly, the market environment for china tech. scarlet: still with us is noah weisberger. what you make of that? why are these companies moving ahead with an ipo in this environment? noah: you have to understand what the long-term strategy is and maybe they are trying to get that initial bounce. maybe it is the view we have investors looking for the next thing. private equities, they are looking for that little extra alpha or boost to their portfolio. you see deals come off the table, but again, i would look at each one as we are trying to calibrate. if we saw more deals being pulled back, to me that would not necessarily be the red flag. i kind of like the fact that people are still willing to look for ways to take risk in this market. joe: which is more important, the federer trade? -- fed or trade? noah: trade is a much bigger
downside risk. in some ways, think about the decision-makers when it comes to policies. would you have the state of the markets in the hands of jay powell and john williams and the rest of the governors there or in the hands of somebody that has a view of trade policy and how you sell the deficit problem? there's a lot of downside risk for trade. you hope to get a step in the right direction and have the market stay in the rally a little more. it's right to stay capital. the mantra for the fed is that they will do the right thing, but they will do it based on the economic outlook. caroline: you said you were taking -- talking about the government shutdown. what unifies -- what do you and -- advise? the --e are waiting overweight in the financial stocks. we still think it is premature to get defensive here.
there is an opportunity being too defensive too early. we are not in the possession driven bear market. we have had a drawdown lingered longer than we would like. i would point out one thing, one of the places we have liked for a while has been a software. that is kind of market performed. that is not a great alpha but in this environment, you take what you can. scarlet: it's like the safe haven quarter of tech? noah: that is a loaded statement, but yes. joe: as i noted earlier, we sawtek outperform, a few days of outperforming. positioning standpoint, does that tell you some of the extreme over concentration people had to a handful of momentum tech names throughout much of the year is kind of even doubt? noah: yes. crowding has been a risk factor that we pay attention to.
you have seen some of that come out and shipped to other places. that is meaningful and maybe -- when you look at intraday swings that we have had over the last couple of weeks, there is a lot of positioning going on. crowding in terms of tech looks moderated relative to what it was a while ago. scarlet: if trade is a bigger source of downside risk, you look at the data coming out, could that present a problem for the fed? we have numbers due out this week. noah: the worst-case scenario is if we get an intensification trade risk and an increase in tariffs and that becomes a price and margin issue, then you are left with the fed dealing with potentially an interdental -- an incremental growth outlook, that would be the worst of both worlds. the other risk from the fed is ironic which is, on the one hand, we like the stronger
economic growth in the market has taken no comfort from lower yields. we are back where we started in september. if we see a little more on the inflation side than we have been used to, we could be right back with the market having to price in three to four hikes instead of two to three hikes. i would like the market to say hey wait a minute, inflation is a consequence of growth and we can get our footing again, but that's not the way the market played in september and october. caroline: we had a guest that it is a global perspective for the fed. he talks about what happened outside of the u.s., but how much of your clients are worrying about the ramifications, particularly in europe, when we see shootings and brexit continuing to linger. viewpointny sort of that will be affected by that? noah: that's a good question. we have seen talks where it mattered a lot.
it matters mostly through the bond market where people are looking for safe assets. they will keep the spread between germany and u.s. 10 year yields tighter than it would otherwise be. i don't think investors are worried about the blow back to the u.s. outlook. it makes it difficult. forare looking opportunities outside of the u.s. and you see a big divergence. does that reconnect or not? -- are doing that the old story of the u.s. being expensive and leading, maybe that is where we ought to be on a persistent basis. where a lot of the big downside risk x u.s. trade policy don't seem to be in the u.s., it seems to be in the rest of the world. scarlet: noah weisberger, thank you so much for joining us. caroline: we have breaking news and updates to the shooting in france. two dead and 11 hurt. the shooting is being treated as a terror attack with to baghdad. the prince -- with two dead.
the shooter has been identified. shots have been fired in an area where the shooter may be. afp, andcording to whether or not the attacker has been hurt by the military before taking flight. they will keep an eye on the situation. the tv channel in france is saying this could all be interlinked surrounding this christmas market. the european parliament has been at shutdown. scarlet: that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in for me for "what'd you miss?" ♪
caroline: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. caroline: here's a snapshot of how u.s. stocks close today. another big day of reversals. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" caroline: inching forward on the road to a trade deal. china moves toward cutting its trade war tariffs on u.s. made autos. playing defense on his capitol hill to blue. the google ceo refusing claims of the search engine bias. meanwhile, tencent's sound of music. china's largest music service is at the lower end of its ipo range. tech takes on the hill. the google ceo forced the house joinedry committee --
the house judiciary committee addressing concerns over political bias. he said it is out of google's hands. >> is not possible for an individual employee or groups of employee to manipulate our search results. we have a robust framework, including many steps in the process. >> let me say a disagree. i think you can manipulate the process, it is a human process at its base. caroline: for more, let's bring onomy ceo. -- synder pichai there. how is this performance? >> i think this was relatively uneventful. of congressroblem understanding how tech works. in general, the questions were not well informed. i don't think they dug deep
enough to get the answers to the kind of questions they thought they wanted answers to. i think the ceo state cool. he reminded me a little bit of some of the tech executives that had been on the hill. joe: the questions may not have been that technologically sound or maybe faulty premise, but i think there were interesting the congressman of texas holding up his phone saying if i walk to the other end of the room, we do know where i am? there was that new york times article about tracking. pichai was able to get out of it saying i don't know the settings on your phone, but the point is, is a serious thing he is getting. david: if i were him, i would say he recognized there is a big question about how much technology companies in general know about you. it is not google. the new york times article is not about google knowing about people's whereabouts, it was
about apps on apple and android phones. weather apps, gambling apps, gaming apps. if you turn on location services, you say track me, and they track you. his answer to the congressman was i don't know if they could track you and he was telling the truth. the congressman acted like you should know whether the app on my phone -- apps on my phone were tracking me. that is not true. n sympathyhave show for the questioning. romaine: whether it is true or not, the public perception says that they are doing this. did they mount enough of of defense in their business model -- enough of a defense in their business model? it's on everyone's mind and you have congress as ill-informed as it may be. david: he did not offer enough of a defense of google's business model to prevent these
things from happening. if you launches in china, he is going to be called back to congress. general, he is on defense. the scrutiny of these companies is growing, and for good reason. romaine: do you think he could launch in china given the current environment? david: i would doubt it. it is ill advised. i don't understand what they think they are trying to do. he did not do a good job of explaining it today. one more thing on the issue of privacy, he acted in the same way zuckerberg did when he testified to congress. people who use these services all three the agreements and understand how to use the controls. that is not true. for thethink it's fair companies to argue everybody knows because we told them because it's buried in the 40th paragraph of some 2000 word agreement. caroline: nevertheless, the share price rose a tenths of 1%
-- 8/10 of 1%. do you think investors baked in the risk of regulatory increase, or do you think congress is looking to make some sort of move? david: the stocks are down this year. it would not have been inappropriate for them to go down because of regulatory risk. in general, i don't think that is why they went up. least,le's case, at maybe in facebook's risk it is priced into the stock. -- facebook's case it is priced into the stock. stock. i think it will come first in europe and other countries. this is not the country where it will be their biggest problem. caroline: interesting. david kirkpatrick, always great to get your perspective. be sure to tune into "bloomberg
caroline: time for look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. terminate users are reading about an impairment -- embarrassment for whole foods. they were the worst defender among five major u.s. growth's using chemicals and packaging. some of the chemicals have been linked to cancer. whole foods says it removed all of the foods and are looking for a replacement. bloomberg.com has a quick take on hezbollah.
they have been fighting in syria --behalf the group may be turning its attention toward israel. israeli military announced it had found three underground tunnels leading from lebanon to israel. tictoc on twitter is reporting the of its restricting sales of red reflector vests. thatian officials worry citizens might emulate protesters in france. you can follow all of these stories on your terminal on -- terminal, on bloomberg.com, and on twitter. joe: the 2018 farm bill. investors who want the peace of the cannabis market are eyeing the possibility of formal listings on the u.s. exchanges like the nasdaq. here to explain how had companies are positioning themselves is christine who has followed the story.
she joins us in person. what could happen with the farm bill that would change the legal status of hemp in this country? >> the farm bill will make hemp -- legal crosss states and allow extracts from hemp, namely cbd, which is the non-intoxicating cousin of thc, thought to have anti-inflammatory abilities, pain easing, helps the sleeplessness, etc.. this is a first step toward legalizing cannabis or the least troublesome of the canal noise. the exchanges have a strict hemp and cannabis related companies with u.s. operations from lifting because they don't want to touch anything violating federal law. with the farm bill, if the law this potentially sets a model for cannabis listing down the road. romaine: canada has been the
biggest beneficiary of this because you can't do it here in the u.s., not in any direct way. is canada worried once the u.s. moves in this direction, it will make the canadian market less of an attractive place to be? kristine: no one says they are worried explicitly because they don't want to sound concerned, but for the canadian securities previous to cannabis becoming a thing, was a tiny exchange focusing on junior miners, energy companies, that sort of thing. -- has turnedd them into a global player. will get only exchange lift. you have all companies listed on the canadian external use -- canadian exchange. liftingbegin to start -- listing these companies, that could be troubling for the canadian markets. caroline: talk about the size of
these businesses. when you look at the or non-psychoactive component, that is what people are talking about. the opportunity whether it is and drinks, beauty products. where are we seeing the value? kristine: no one had even heard of cbd two or three years ago, or few people have outside of the insider industry. whether it is, beauty products, cbd infused some estimates say that could be as big as a $22 billion market in the u.s. alone much less the global opportunity. is huge.tunity hat is the first step toward that. the question is how it plays out and how these consumer product companies get to market. joe: what's the legal status now for it? kristine: it is a great market.
-- seas sent legalized mi-legalized in 2014. there were trials growing in some states like kentucky. this would allow it across the country and make it much bigger. farmers talked about switching crops to have and maybe cannabis down the road from staples like tobacco for example that are not selling as well. out,ne: i want to point crossing the wire, it says the u.s. senate has the vote to pass the farmville which include the provisions for hemp farming. joe: nice timing. caroline: great to have you here in the flesh. thank you, kristine owram, on her perspective on all things cannabis. besides beijing once the contention. where is the trade war heading? this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. in france, officials have launched a terror investigation after a shooting at a christmas market left two people dead and 11 wounded. two of them in critical condition, according to the news agency citing police. gunmen fled the scene -- the gunmen fled the scene but has been identified and has a criminal record. emergency protocol had been activated and parliament was in lockdown with no one able to leave the building. after arguing about award ball -- border wall, president trump is now saying the private part
of the meeting was "very friendly." he said at a bill signing that after reporters left the oval office meeting, with house leaders, they all had a good discussion. mr. trump said he does not mind taking the blame for a government shutdown if the two sides cannot agree on funding for border security. nancy pelosi did not see things the same way. the associated press reports she told democratic lawmakers that the president's board while demand is about his "manhood." theresa may says she and other european union leaders want to find a way to alleviate u.k. lawmakers' concerns about the brexit agreement. travelingthe day after canceling a planned parliamentary vote on the eu divorce deal that she looks certain to lose. speaking after meeting eu officials, may said there is "a
shared determination to deal with this issue and address this problem." iran has confirmed a recent ballistic missiles test condemned by the united states. iranian officials say the test was "an important one." the u.s. urged european countries to follow it lead to put tough sanctions on iran. under the nuclear court, iran was urged to cease is testing -- it's testing. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: china is considering cooling down the trade war. let's go to washington where kevin cirilli is with a guest deep in the trade issue, plenty to govern when we look at autos today.
kevin: we are here with the opec president and ceo. he is in charge of this government agency that allows for the u.s. to have a competitive advantage against china. we were talking earlier. the last time you were here, this legislation was getting d to have this new government agency. where do we stand in terms of moving forward? it intoresident signed law on october 5, so we're going to the final process getting the documentation finished and we hope it will be next year. kevin: what is opec do in order to help the u.s. in a global field? >> we currently have a 29 billion dollar portfolio spread across 130 countries. the new legislation is a lot more. kevin: what are some examples of the projects that opec has been able to get solved? is part of the united
states government and part of the president streamlining the federal government, they want to take opec and a portion of you a id consolidated -- uaid consolidated together. an example of a project would be , in honduras, we company to go down to a plant to create electricity for 40,000 homes and businesses, jobs and opportunities for people that will stabilize the country. kevin: but not just in on doors. i was talking to senate -- honduras. i was talking to senator kunz. this is having broad bipartisan support. ray: that's correct. when you look at a place like the panama canal, we can go down and finance companies to go in. where the chokepoints are around the world whether it is the panama canal, south africa, we can go in where companies are not able to obtain financing and
finance airports, warehousing, things like that. kevin: every point you mentioned around the world, -- ray: they are. they loaned the government billions of dollars billions of dollars a month -- billions of dollars a month. they have a gateway port into the ocean controlled by the chinese. kevin: you are a part of the assembly that went down in the specifically with regards to china. what you make of the developments out of that meeting? specifically, opec and the u.s. government has been close there in the last eight or nine years. i signed six projects, around $3 billion worth of investment in argentina. i was able to show the government the united states is involved. the chinese were down there on the other side of town competing
for projects as well. we have to be there to be engaged. domestic purposes, if we are not making those investments in the hotspots around the world, and china does, how does that put the u.s. at a disadvantage? ray: what opec is and new usd is, we are a profit-making venture. we have made a profit for 43 years. we compete with the chinese. when they go out and give money away, we cannot compete against that. that means it will not cost the taxpayers -- the taxpayers have less risk than otherwise? ray: that's right. we may $270 million for the u.s. government, but they have to underwrite to economic standards. a lot of these chinese companies -- let's say it is an airport and they will build an airport that makes no economic sense whatsoever and the chinese
government can grab that asset. u.s. government will only back projects that make sense. kevin: this is interesting because it shows the other side think trade issue that i is getting lost in the back-and-forth trade issue narrative with china. how important are programs i go back, given the context of what we are seeing with the u.s. and china right now? ray: if you look at emerging markets, africa, latin america, the northern triangle, where the u.s. needs to make interest, a lot of institutions won't go there for a lot of reasons. opec is the only alternative they have. kevin: quickly, you have done work in terms of getting women in emerging markets into the economy. ray: that's correct. we started an initiative that focuses money on female businesses -- t-boned businesses
and focus on that market -- female owned businesses and focused on that market. kevin: i cover you for quite , would you have any interest in taking another position in the administration whether it is commerce or treasury secretary? are you open to that? ray: i have so much to do right now, i have a busy day. kevin: a busy day but you keep your options open. af --eah thank you for thank you for asking. back to you in new york. caroline: kevin cirilli, thank you. the latest brexit development. asked to see theresa may tomorrow. that's according to the bbc. mean we seendeed theresa may's helm be questioned.
may is embarking on eight european tour to drum up concessions in her brexit deal after she triggered -- chargrilled -- struggled in parliament. a little bit of a metaphor. joe: i hate when the jokes are too on the nose. romaine: it happened to all of us on one point. a little too locked in and can't exit. [laughter] no mates grabbing. caroline: are you on the 1922 committee? joe: they have the conservative faction, 48 letters and i read the wikipedia page. romaine: i learn a lot being next to you two.
romaine: the u.s. is at the top of the class with nine out of the top 10 spots in bloomberg businessweek's ranking of the top business schools. here is caleb solomon. if i want to make a lot of money, which school do i choose? >> you want to go to stamford -- stanford. is there any other factor to a business school? .> some are close
what we did for this ranking was surveyed nearly 27,000 students, alumni, and employers on campus and asked them what is most important. competition came out first. networking was number two. which is related to compensation. learning and entrepreneurship counted high as well. why perhapsis is some of the european ones were falling down the ratings -- ranking because it was not until number tonight to get a whiff of the european school coming in on this measure. if you rented by conversation, they fell down to 17. caleb: they did. companies pay more in the u.s. than elsewhere. the vast majority of students end up with jobs in the countries in which they go to school. that's a big reason why the european schools and other schools outside of the u.s. did not fare as well in our ranking. romaine: this is a great feature
and the viewers can get this on the bloomberg west fight -- website. you had rankings by industry, the ones you would assume at the top. i thought technology was also pretty high on the list. caleb: technology is three or four. we give the view on the website. you can look at it in a different -- in a lot of different ways. we run down all of the major industries including technology. joe: how much does the rise of tech explain the rise of stanford? caleb: it's huge. the location feeds tons of people into silicon valley and its core number one on our -- scoredurship index number one on our entrepreneur index. joe: which one of these will make me a lot of money but are not as competitive as stanford? gmac: you had to put your
score into your school. are we seeing the ramifications of harder to get work these is in the u.s. affecting this? most of the people go to the school and get a job here. caleb: in the past two years, applications from international students to u.s. schools has dropped 53% because of the trump administration's changes views --changes in views on changes and views on immigration. far few of them are coming here than the used to. applications of other countries like canada are searching. -- maybe maybe a look it will get a little easier for you, joe. caroline: will thank you. that is a great perspective from caleb solomon. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines.
michael dell is on the winning side of a trump the old polarize investors for a second time in five years. delwin private in one of the biggest leveraged buyout sever. ubs will pay hundreds of millions of's dollars to use microsoft's about services. the largest bank may store data at microsoft facilities in geneva as soon as next year. the move will reduce cost for ubs while complying with privacy rules. it's a big win for microsoft. amazonon is testing and subscription for yoga lovers. they're putting the most loyal customers into a paid membership program that comes with your classesasses -- yoga and yogawear.
onfrey goodlatte's speaking an accord. --says the that is your business flash update. it's time for smart charts. here's abigail doolittle. abigail: 2018 is turning out to be the euro volatility. it's not clearly risk on or risk off. yesterday case in point. the s&p 500 on the here, let's take a look at the long term chart to see the volatility fits into the bull market -- where the volatility fits into the bull market. this is a one-year chart of the s&p 500. we have been looking at similar charts. we have a sideways trend slightly up. the volatility started earlier in the year. january was the best month since march of 2016.
interesting to note are the blue trendlines called fan lines. they note the change of trends. when you have the market in question go above them, buyers are taking control. we also see the s&p 500 held the 200 day moving average. that led to a nice uptrend. a little choppy but that has given way to the recent volatility. we are not breaking above those lines and the congestion, instead of being a triangle earlier this year, is a downside. we may see chops to the upside. this chart says you probably don't want to buy the dip. you are more likely wanting to sell the rally. that's true when we take a look at the long-term chart of the s&p 500. a beautiful move up in the buyers are in control. this is a monthly chart and most of the months are to the upside. take a look at that. the s&p 500 breaking below that uptrend. there are lots of what you can draw trendlines. this line right here suggests we
are going to see a move down. youof the different ways would drive suggest there is wobbliness there, and buyers are getting uncertain. the sellers may be willing to overtake the buyers at some point. that would suggest the bearish range we see in the s&p 500. finally, if we bring in a haven assets, the yen, the dollar against the yen. this is a long-term chart going back to 1970. we see the long-term downtrend in the japanese yen -- or the dollar against the yen as the yen had been unbelievably strong. out of the 2012 era, we have the dollar taking over the yen. if you put it into the context of this long-term downtrend, unless the dollar against the yen can breakout, it suggests the yen will get strong again and dollar weaken again against the yen.
caroline: to asia ahead, it has been a big year for chinese listings in the u.s.. tencent is pricing its ipo at $13 per share. that's at the low end of the range. here is more a shery ahn. the perspective is that this will be pricing 13 to $15 and the $1.2 billion at the top and in $1 billion at the bottom end. shery: it has come and finally happened. we have been talking about this
for the longest time. just one of those ipo's we have seen in the u.s. raising more than $8 billion this year which is more than double the amount we saw last year. thing abouting tencent music is that bloomberg intelligence points to this company as perhaps the only music streaming company in the world that has the potential for sustainable profit short-term. that's because it is based on the tencent social network. romaine: the valuation we are getting off of $13 per share puts it around the same valuation a spotify. that was a hot ipo, or listing a should say. the share price fell below that reference point from when they listed publicly. will there be enough appetite in the secondary market? shery: that's a key question right now. the prospects for the company long-term seem to be positive. aremention spotify, they one of the major shareholders owning 9% of tencent music. tencent itself owning 59%.
this chart on the bloomberg showing tencent really has done very well given the government crackdown on gaming and underperforming. this tencent music ipo could be a bright spot for the company. joe: tell us about southbank -- softbank. shery: we had big news that the group itself was unloading or expected to unload shares. it has evolved into this investment company. the big deal now is the softbank telco unit ipo. list -- it it could is going to price at its original target of ¥5,000 apiece. a lot of investor interest in this ipo coming from retailers investors in japan who are usually more transitional, but they are excited about this ipo. caroline: does it give any hint of what next year looks like?
softbank's listing in japan, but the chinese investors and companies looking to list have --n is it likely to continue? shery: that's interesting. we are seeing this ipo here in the u.s. market. $8 billion, which is huge. it is more than double that we saw last year. there,erest seems to be perhaps because you talk of market volatility and that has been worsen asia in chinese markets. when it comes to japan, the softbank ipo is coming at a time where the nikkei has lost 5% this month. it's not great timing but the confidence is there because of softbank's potential. masayoshi son's star power at least. caroline: always fun to watch the billionaires.
emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." the google ceo testifies before the house judiciary committee raising tough questions. lawmakers,k to two one democrat, one republican, that part in the q&a. privacy, launching a censored search engine in china an accusations of conservative bias. how did he respond
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