tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg December 21, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
headquarters, i'm david westin. welcome to balance of power, where world of politics meets the world of business. we have a looming government and our correspondent in washington on the sudden resignation of jim mattis. the president is currently meeting with republicans from the senate. >> all of a sudden, the discussion has become about the filibuster in the senate, that's the only thing that keeping the senate from passing the measure that the house passed yesterday, which would fund the government for two weeks and includes the billion dollars the president requested for his wall. the reason i cannot pass is because he needs at least nine democrats to get on board for the filibuster. the president wants to get rid of the filibuster. so far mitch mcconnell is not ok with that option. >> it's all up to mitch mcconnell, he has tweeted to mitch mcconnell to get on board, he wants to use the nuclear option. if they did that they give -- they do away with the
filibuster, it is already nonexistent with respect to confirmation of judicial positions. >> and her are some instances where you would still need 50 votes, and some senators have pointed out this is one of those cases, you need 60 votes to override a point of order on a budget, according to a budget act, which is a law, not a senate rule. this is going to be a process driven day because there are a lot of different ways the senate can use rules in its favor or to hold up votes they do not want to take. david: the president also tweeted that if they do not come up with a bill it could be a long shutdown. does he have the luxury of doing that? it's not really a complete shutdown, just 25% of the government. >> that makes it easier to shut down the government for a. , --ime -- ripe for of time we a period of time, but should also watch the market
reaction. the markets do not react strongly to this yesterday, in part because of the uncertainty with this president. we thought we had a deal, then conservative commentators were whispering in his ear and he decides presidents -- and the president decides there is not a deal. toy are watching the market see that puts pressure on the government. bill, wed across town, had a surprise resignation last night from jim mattis, the secretary of defense. , anotherning departure departure from president trump's national security the and really the last one of the so-called adults in the room that a lot of people look to to provide a bit of an anchor to president trump's foreign-policy strategy. he wrote a scathing two-page letter of resignation to the president, saying he would stay on until the end of february, during the president time to find a successor but he made it
values in terms of valuing american alliances abroad, working with allies and partnerships like nato and the defeat isis coalition, where values that he is not sure this president shares. the news came's -- the news came within hours after the president said he would pull troops out of syria, and cutting half of the american forces in afghanistan. the geopolitical map has been reshaping itself quickly, and many in washington are still trying to digest all that has happened. tendency when a you look at the politics of this, there are republican and democratic senators who are criticizing the decision. and allies. let's talk about something you cover, national security forces, what about the reaction of the military? general mattis, a four-star marine general, was very popular with the military. >> he was very popular among
before he became the pentagon chief, he was known for meeting commanders and asking immediately what's the morale of your troops like? signaling his interest in caring about the troops. he is wildly popular, famous for being asked what keeps him up at night as the military leader? his response was i sleep very well at night, i keep other awake.wake -- it will be a big loss for the admin's ration people on both sides of the aisle feel like it's a big loss for the party and the country. his a lot of attention a turning to who could fill those shoes, but the president has a lot of issues on his plate with the shutdown, and mattis is an officer does come or months. david: the president is saying he will have a new secretary of defense shortly, is there a name at the top of the list? >> there is no name from the administration. some of the people talked about in the background, whether they
want to be spoken about or not, , formertor tom cotton , asouri senator jim talent few former generals floating out there. but a lot of them will take a look at little bit of a pause when they see what a rough ride it has been for jim mattis, and the original national security team that president trump brought on early last year. nearly all of whom are gone. david: not many are left. thank you bill. now a check on the market, we have been up and down and all around. we have been up but losing the gains. right, we arere now looking at markets turning negative, especially the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. it's a small gain with the dow jones fluctuating. they started the day in the green, and now they will take the leg lower, and the selloff will tank.
1.3%, this isdown also one of the worst performing sectors in the s&p 500's with investors being rather cloud it -- crowded. investors are doing this at the end of a miserable week, speaking of, let's look at the s&p 500 over the course of a little more than a week, eight sessions, the s&p 500 is having its worst week since march, this is in over eight sessions, we can see what has happened over the quarter of eight sessions is that the s&p has risen but it cannot hold onto the rally. it looks like we are seeing this happen again. if you look at the s&p 500 on a monthly basis, this is its worst months since 2009. there are some stocks in the nike is up more than 7%,
this after it posted stellar earning reports in the u.s. and abroad, particularly in china with growth of 26%. the cfo saying that it was not seeing any impact from the trade war between china and the u.s.. carmax is up, and some of the biggest losers are conagra, this after second-quarter sales came in below estimate, twitter is down, this after twitter was called the harvey weinstein of social media. and amnesty international said twitter is a terrible place for women. dollar, itk at the is gaining on the day, but if you look at it on a weekly basis, -- david: thank you. i think. toing up, eli lake is here
david: this is balance of power, i'm david westin. we turn now to mark crumpton for first word news. >> senate republicans are at the white house meeting with the president in hopes of finding a way to avoid a partial dots -- government shutdown. the senate is set to vote on a stopgap spending bill to keep the government funded through february. the republicans could invoke the leaping or option, allowing 51 republicans to pass the bill with a simple majority and remove democrats ability to block it. sarah huckabee sanders says the president would support the
move. love to see them use the 51 over the filibuster. that is something he has push the senator on in the past, that is something you would like to see happen today. the president wants border security and he's not going to back down. a the president said that closure could drag on for a very long time. an explosion in a czech republic coal shaft has killed 13 people in the country's deadliest mining disaster in almost three decades. have seen people in the mine die after methane exploded 300 feet underground. one person is under critical condition at an awesome that it a hospital. french authorities arrested a suspected -- extremist links to the charlie hebdo attack. he was arrested in djibouti, and he had been on the run since
2011 when he failed to turn up for a sentencing hearing on unrelated terrorism charges. pope francis says the catholic church will never again cover up clergy sex abuse. he demanded that priest to have molested children turn themselves in, he dedicated his theal christmas feast at vatican bureaucracy to victims of abuse and said this year's revelations have shaven -- shaken the papacy and caused a crisis of confidence in the catholic hierarchy. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. secretary of defense jim mattis tendered his resignation in a two-page letter, he wrote my views on treating allies with respect and being clear eyed about my aligned actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and enforced by
over four decades of immersion in the issue. you have the right to a secretary of defense are better aligned with yours. we welcome eli lake from washington. thank you. he was pretty direct, general mattis. >> an extraordinary resignation letter, this is not a resignation over a specific policy difference, which we have seen before with jimmy carter's administration and bill clinton's administration. this is a resignation over a difference in fundamental values and how jim mattis sees the importance of alliances, the role of america as an anchor of the international order, and how resolute the president is against our adversaries. it is extraordinary, the fact that he wrote this resignation in the way that he did, it public and out there, it will have major political ramifications. vonnie: -- about thewas specific
adversaries, china and russia, didn't general mattis understand this about the president before he took his job? he had never been a big proponent of alliances. >> it is true, but the actual policies in trump's first term with regards to russia and china have been admirably tough. part that is because there were people like jim mattis at the top of the pentagon. and there were other people who shared mattis is understand -- mattis's understanding. coats.na haspel and dan you have a president who often tweets and says things that are people that of the he has appointed to lead in the government, and the policies of that government. that tension finally came to a breaking point last night. that resignation letter was what it was all about. david: this is not the first
there he senior cabinet officer to resign. why is this one different or more important question -- important? . >> jim mattis has an extraordinary reputation and is an embodiment of military virtue. that is something that was a powerful shield for president trump. it was something many republicans who would be from what would be called the institutionalist wing of the party can point to the pentagon and say if jim mattis is with trump, so in my. this is going to have ramifications in the senate. look at susan collins, lindsey , lisa, even john cornyn murkowski. you are going to see republican senators who are already baffled and bewildered about how the president in lightning speed decided to pull out 2000 special ,perations forces from syria
and is looking to do the same thing in afghanistan with no real input or process. they are already concerned about that. youwith this resignation have that kind of momentum. it will be interesting to see whether the institutionalist wing of the republican party is going to be as tolerant of trump as they have been. david: the story may not be over. some of those individuals have warned over what will happen to the kurds, who have been our allies fighting the islamic state, and we are pulling the rug out from under them, they are in harms way from president heard a who has no love for the kurds. >> we staved off disaster, it broke this morning that for now, the turks have caused off their offensive. but in the medium-term, in the coming weeks and months with the u.s. pulling out and the sale of those patriot missiles to turkey
, as they are threatening our kurdish allies, this is a terrible message to our adversaries and our allies. to our adversaries it says you can bully america, and it says to our allies that we are not good allies. message,worst kind of and these things add up. i think president trump is doing -- has done some admirable iings for foreign policy, have not criticized him across the board all the time. but this is courting disaster in syria, and he needs to reassess. you.: thank that is eli lake joining us from washington. general mattis is -- general mattis's resignation was not the only news, the president had an abrupt about-face about funding. he is apparently praising house republicans for their vote on
he said fund bill, and the chances are pretty good that there will be a shutdown. jen cruz, a gop strategist and a former spokesperson for the republican party of california. we saw the president in the oval office earlier, at his meeting nancyhuck schumer and pelosi say i own it, i own it. now he is tweeting the democrats own it. who owns it? >> i think trump is not afraid to call it the trump shutdown. who is surprised that president trump would shut down the government a few days before christmas has not been paying attention. this is the guy who went to washington, d.c. to drain the swamp. from day one, the day he announced his candidacy in new york city he said he was going to get funding to build the wall. that's two plus years in the making and it has finally come down to this.
i think that house republicans did their job, they provided the funding and it's up to the senate republicans. senate say the republicans own it if they do not get the funding and that bill. david: is this a cheap shot? it's only a quarter of the government, this is not new gingrich. is the president making a point without really experiencing the pain? >> this is why donald trump is the art of the deal, and the master of it. i think in the end he will get what he wants, i think you will get the border funding without having to go through a long protracted government shutdown. he is enjoying high approval ratings in his own party, he has an approval rating of 82%, the turn party rating of a turn party rating of a president -- outside of george w. bush outside of 9/11. he actually has some interesting support on the wall and the border funding with independents
and democrats. i think that matters. city 5% of democrats and two thirds of independence actually have the same views on border security and funding the wall. chuck schumer is speaking live on the floor. the republican senators are meeting with the president. he may have support within his own party, he does not have support in the markets, that is are sure. the stock market is not enjoying what's going on now. and watching that meeting in the oval office, there is an erratic nature. and we have general mattis stepping down. is it important to send a message to the markets that we ?ave a steady task -- path because we have the debt ceiling coming up in march. >> i think was going on in the market is more a result of what jerome powell is doing at the fed. he has become the jeff sessions
of the federal reserve, a trump appointee who is probably going to carry out exactly zero of what the president appointed him to do. it's interesting. if you compare the trump administration versus what happened during the obama administration you have some -- four interest rates under trump, virtually zero in the obama administration. you look at the fed's purpose is to maximize employment and keep inflation -- facts can beic pushed, during the campaign candidate trump complained that the fed was not raising the rates. now they are, and he's complaining about that. this is a situational ethics that depends on where you are. >> i think president trump has delivered on some strong numbers. if you look at the fed's purpose, to maximize employment, president trump has done that. you have unemployment at the 17
year low. all of the other numbers in the economy are good. i can see where he has a little bit of angst over his own appointee. but this is in spite of the rate hikes, this has not stopped those. theill keep following developments in the government shutdown fight from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: you are watching balance of power. the time now for stock of the hour, it's lockheed martin, with shares falling out 1.3%, but the losses have paired since earlier in the session. we are here with more -- emma chandra is here with more. mattis andgnation of the impending partial government shutdown seems to be pulling
this across the defense names. -- we see interesting analyst reports, the loss of mattis could be a material negative for the 2020 budget negotiation. he is saying that mattis enjoyed bipartisan support on the hill and was good at getting money for defense. stocks get the contracts. he is saying that if trump supports a partisan successor, he also noted that the withdrawal of troops will eventually mean that it will be difficult on defense appropriations. another analyst took a different approach, and said that the resignation signals u.s. allies, and pressure on and therefore there may be
broader market activity that could affect defense stocks. really taking notes, i have the function in bloomberg, you can certainly see that the volume is very high for lockheed martin. the traders are paying attention. david: they are focused on the relationship with congress, as president trump wants more money for them, but can he get it? without jim mattis? up next, markets are down in the government is about to be shut down, we talk to the head of the nfib about what that could mean for small businesses. that's coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪
broke -- justice ginsburg is now 85 years old, the oldest member appointed .y president justice ruth bader ginsburg being treated for cancerous nodules on her long. mitch mcconnell in the majority leader talking in the senate saying he supports a stopgap measure. let's listen now. >> proposals they have been happy to endorse in the past. the only thing that has really lens,d are the political way over way over the far left. begannot end the way we -- was another shutdown over the issue of illegal immigration.
member this back remember this back in january? all of this because the democrats are unwilling to support commonsense legislation. let support our country. i ask for -- >> is there a sufficient second? >> there appears to be. the court will call the role. >> ms. baldwin, mr. barrasso. mr. bennett. mr. blumenthal. we have just been observing the floor of the senate live with the senator mitch mcconnell to support a stopgap measure to keep the government going until february
meaning the resistance was from the far left and that we should not shut down the government. his meeting with senate republican leaders happened earlier around noon. we are going to turn now as we continue to follow the developing drama, we are going to turn back to washington and to the president and ceo of the national federation of independent businesses, she comes to us from washington. >> thank you for having me. david: let's start with the news about the potential shutdown, because your organization index forn optimism small businesses. it was a record high levels. what were the possible effects on the small and independent businesses if the shutdown goes forward? representing small
business exclusively for 75 years, and we have been serving our members monthly for 45 years. we have this rich data which really tells us what is on the mind of the small business owners. the optimism index has been bumping around at historic levels for 24 months. clearly the result of deregulation and the tax bill paid off a year ago. we have never seen a big correlation between optimism index and government shutdowns. unfortunately, they seem to happen more often than they used to, but we do not see the big correlation. is causing perhaps some of the softness in that optimism? they were very enthusiastic, you and i talked about it with the tax debts, and the regulatory efforts -- are they somewhat less enthusiastic. i would say it has not softened and that is still
within a store command, but it is really at record highs, so last month, it dipped a little bit. it was not a big deal. is based onindex questions that a measure expectation in the next six months, and half of the index is made up of what the actual business plans are. the optimism index turns out to be a really big indicator for future health of the economy and right now, they still have great expectations. an indicator at least in the future of big business is the s&p 500 which is not indicating a lot of good things going into the new year. does it have any affect on independent business or is entirely too different indicators going to different directions? now, it would seem to be going to the two different directions. the small business economy is half of the economy.
payroll of gdp, half of , and two out of every three new jobs. you think about the small business economic trends it reports and you are seeing the other half of the economy that is not reflected in markets. david: last time we talked, the one of the 1 -- big issues for you is finding the right kind of employees as well as the labor market. to what extent of those remain real challenges for your members? juanita: this is the tightest labor market ever for the small business owner. right now, they tell us they -- the single most important business problem is finding qualified workers and the no applicant at all. causing theoing is small business owners to raise wages for the first time in a very long time. this is actually good news for american workers. it can go to work for small business, they can come back into the workforce from
retirement and they can earn more money. they are also beginning to train because they discover the applicants do not have the right skill sets, so this is good news. of every new job is coming out of small business and when people come to work, they are going to be working for a small business. david: what does it do to margins? when it's a plate workers more -- pay workers more, that is not necessarily good for margins. juanita: that is really the only way they are going to be able to attract workers back into the workforce. member the labor force for -- ipation -- labo remember them labor force droppedation rate during obama. bringing new people back into the labor force and that is what higher wagers will do. david: i understand optimism is high.
you look forward to 2019 but what is the biggest risk for independent, small businesses in the united states? juanita: one thing we want to make sure is that large tax-cut that was approved for small business last year is made permanent. one of the features of the bill is that it only lasts for 10 years. we are going to be working very hard to make sure the congress makes that permanent. senator grassley said on the floor that that is the highest priority, to make the tax-cut permanent. i think we will have a great opportunity to have a dialogue with the new members coming in on the house side. david: thank you to juanita duggan. recapping what has been going on, the senate has started a procedure vote. senator majority leader mitch mcconnell saying he supports
the stopgap measure and this is something that would have to pass by the house and it would keep the full government going until early february. this is also something the freedom caucus members over on the house side were resisting because they did not think it went far enough to fund that wall. we are going to hear from the president shortly. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
the president had a longish meeting with senate majority and hemitch mcconnell, urged everyone to vote for the stopgap measure that will keep the government funded until february but not give the president the wall he wants. the house side, republicans very much want that. they are having the procedural vote on the floor of the senate but we will keep you up-to-date. this week, we have been looking forward to what we can expect an 2019, focusing on different areas around the world. today we look at a major issue. the plight of people forced from their homes. the u.n. reports a record 68.5 million people have been forcibly displaced. 40 million of those still in their home countries and 25 that aren displaced.
u.k. foreignmer secretary. also, an author, thank you for being here. give us a snapshot going into 2019. the problem is bigger, where might it gets worse? >> the snapshot is this is a big global problem. fleeing because the system has let them down. and oh most every continent, there is pressure and there is pressure from civil wars that are going on for longer that are blasting through international norms to the protection of civilians or the protection of humanitarian aid workers. we published a watch list for and interestingly, iraq has dropped out of the top 10. it had an election this year and a government in place, but
venezuela, 2.5 million refugees. 1.2 million living in col ombia. syria, and we can talk about president trump's decision and whether that is going to drive greater refugee flows. also, kazakhstan and isis on the rise. our point is that if we do not tackle the problem at source, it will come to us. that is why the national humanitarian aid has 12,000 employees and of 15,000 , thateers in the hotspot the worst thing for us is that humanitarian crisis leads to further political crisis. david w.: let's take one of those, syria. a quarter of the refugees, 6.5 million refugees. what are you doing to try to address that huge problem?
inside syria, the northwest is still where international government organizations can work. 200 staff in the northwest of the country. the danger of a further refugee flight. another 200 30 staff in the northeast of the country where president trump is threatening to withdraw 2200 u.s. troops. neighboring states, jordan, a close ally of the u.s., lebanon, iraq -- we are sanitation,alth, water, protection for girls and women, then those countries are creaking under the strain of a seven-year war. a rather abrupt decision to pull u.s. military forces out of syria. what kind of effect could that have on your activities? david m.: the northeast of syria is relatively stable at the moment.
the danger is that it becomes relatively unstable. enormous explosive potential and you have a range of different forces there, never mind the relative forces that might come across the iraqi border, and any preemptive action that does not take account of the humanitarian impact could set off a very vicious circle. no one has claimed that the president took into account to military that she military -- took into account humanitarian effects. david w.: how do they assimilate and things like that, where are we with refugees in western europe? david m.: europe is a more coordinated way -- everyone checked as they come in, but european states led by germany are processing asylum claims, quickly.
eight to 10 weeks to process an asylum claim. in america, three or four years for the process. the europeans are beginning to process claims fast. we have also had a real notable step up by the private sector. businesses. david w.: you have a deal with intel where you are working on this, right? david m.: yeah. when governments are in retreat, ngo's and the corporate sector had to step up because they know the political instability leads to humanitarian instability and that makes business more difficult. businesses working to integrate about 40 50,000 refugees-- 450,000 into life by teaching them without privatizing public partnership. wishing thisay be away, but corporates cannot
afford to. david w.: you see some political instability in western europe that in part is triggered by the refugee situation. david m.: much more around the world, governments in retreat. it is not just an american phenomenon. my on country is suffering from the delusion that if you separate yourself from the european union, you'll push the problems away. this great danger -- people say all politics is local, but the truth is, today it is not. a problem can come from a long way away right into the heart of yours. we are a u.s. based ngo. we were set up in the 1930's to rescue jews from europe and now we operate in 40 countries and we need the american spirits to recognize that america is not the anchor of global stability and there is not global security and all sorts of actors move in.
it is hard because there is american retreat. said there is american abdication, that is the policy. europeans are looking at that and saying, where does that leave us? we still have merkel and macron saying we can afford to go into retreat and that is what we see on the ground. david w.: you raised it. david m.: i mentioned it. a very.: you were prominent leader in the government in the u.k. and you know the situation well. we are seeing prime minister theresa may having difficulty trying to get parliament to agree to anything when it comes to brexit. the report today is that she is secretly considering other alternatives like a second referendum or going for a general election. what are the options -- is there anything that makes sense for the government right now? david m.: i will give you my opinion. my opinion is that the lead that was promised in the referendum
is simply not available. you cannot have friction and no hard border. the consequence is that the british people should begin in the chance to say whether or not they want to go with this deal. if you buy a house, you get the surveyor to do a report, and you are not bound to go and buy the house. i think that is the way out. we will know. it is either affirmation of decision or debt they reverse. -- or that they reverse. david w.: there seems to be a resolution. or 15%.: there is, 10% of the same referendum and the now i would say 35%. however, we also know that the pressure to come in behind mrs. may's inadequate deal, and it is only a deal about divorce, not who was going to look after the kids in the future -- that deal to withdrawal, i fear you will
get enormous pressure for people on the conservative side of parliament to support it and the labor side. the option that she is holding is that it will crush out on the 31st of march was no deal at all. not even withdrawal. that is very, very dangerous. the game of chicken with serious consequences. david w.: real damage to the u.k., without a doubt. david m.: it is already doing damage to the u.k. i still say it is a fantastic place to do business and full of amazing people, but, the danger is that we lose the reputation of pragmatism have seriousness and the ability to get problem solved. david w.: thank you for being here. let's take a look at the markets because they have been all over the place and we see now they are down across the board. camewere up for a time, down, and they were mixed and
♪ this is balance of power on bloomberg television. i am david westin. the senate has started voting on the stopgap measure and now we want to go to our chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. there, mitcha down mcconnell came back and made a speech. what is going on? kevin: it looks like the government is poised to shut down at midnight tonight partially including the department of homeland security but what you are watching unfold is a procedural vote. the magic number is 60. that is the number of votes needed to bring the resolution that was passed in the house of
representatives last night to a more complete to vote. it is likely going to fail and that would mean we are heading towards a government shutdown. all of this comes as the president has dug in with a hard-line conservatives including the freedom caucus suggesting to republicans that they promised and campaigned on bluster and security on the u.s.-mexico border, they campaigned on the wall, and now it is their opportunity to do it. in a tweet, the president said he was prepared for a long the government shutdown. to whiteesting house secretary sanders that he would not be going tomorrow -- tomorrow -- to mar-a -lago if the government did shut down. david: is this an elaborate procedure to blame it on the democrats if the government did shut down? kevin: that is the politics of this but on the substance of this, this is a president that is making a calculation of the faith of his party is something
he is not willing to desert. it is impossible to look at this in a vacuum. in the past .4 hours, in addition to the president's decision to remove thousands of troops from the middle east, you also have the departure of secretary mattis. the president is facing great questions from his party. david: a lot of questions and i am not sure what the answers are. coming up, we will continue to follow all of the develops -- continue to as you watch the senate floor as they are having a procedural vote. live from new york and washington, this is bloomberg. ♪
britain in 1963. chinad $3.8 million, arranged to the financing, and built the start of our rail network that promised to open up the passage of people and goods deep into the heart of the continent. >> when we look at from an african perspective, investments coming to build our infrastructure are very welcome. whether it is american, chinese, or european, because they need to make us more competitive. there, but tois get connectivity and a product out there is a problem. we hope that this market is going to be opened up. theveryone is spoken about plummet see and that it is a sinister move by china to get control of strategic assets. it is a very unlikely scenario because the overall trade benefits would to proceed. dashwood -- would
>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jon: coming up, from hawkish to dovish and totally compute. wall street grappling with communication. re, shutdownrket were politics weighing on sentiment. volatility. we will begin with a big issue, a market gripped by federal reserve confusion. message yesterday was so prophetic, it was taken badly by the marke
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