tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg January 22, 2019 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
mark: i'm mark with bloomberg irst word news in los angeles, mayor says school officials and the teachers union reached allow ve deal that will teachers to return to work tomorrow. the strike by united teachers first against the the huge school district in 30 years. it began last week, following 21 months of unsuccessful talks. the mayor says the tentative requires approvala of the teachers and the board of education. come outpublicans have with their plan to end the partial government shutdown that trump's president request for a wall on the mexican border. t also would give some immigrants temporary protection from deportation. will be this week. house democrats have said they border nsider any spending until government agencies are reopened. vice president mike pence urging venezuela to rally around leader
guaido. the vice president called the new head in venezuela courageous and denounced president nicolas maduro. the video was released a day protests aimed at overthrowing the maduro regime. ne of the world's highest played soccer players, will play foraldo spanish tax trial charges and two-year suspended sentence. he was accused of using shell ompanies outside spain to hide income from his rights. day, news 24 hours per powered by 2700 journalists and over 120 countries. 'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. >> 1 p.m. in new york, 6 p.m. in hong kong.2 a.m. in i'm vonnie quinn, welcome to markets.quinn, welcome to
bloomberg markets. >> from the headquarter necessary new york, top storyos around the d from world we're following. decline in se, lead stocks cloudy outlook for trade nd growth continue to weigh on global risk appetite. davos day one. in switzerland for the world economic forum, we'll bring highlights from blackstone c.e.o. and citigroup c.e.o. turnaround under fire. activist management has a e-xhers plan for the company to double in value. all that on the next 30 minutes. into the market unease. we're halfway into the trading and taylor is with us. >> broader concerns about u.s. is all the d that
decision we are hearing out of dav davos. of the reason you're seeing risk off sentiment today. of nt to look at the chart the s&p 500 because around the uropean close we saw the s&p take another leg lower, hovering near the bottom and lows of the maybe global growth concerns. imap, we can t the see what that means, every sector in red, what catches my is industrial and energies are the worst performers. energy off about 2%. 3% to energy bout and concerns about global growth weighing again, on energy. thanburton reported better expected earnings, they are cautious about the recovery in 2019. is down and so that of course is weighing. lip up the board and take a look at crude and the two-year break-even rate. correlated, ghtly you see divergence here.
over here you are seeing them track closely. come down and trying to come up a bit to $52 per barrel, two-year eing break-even break. the gauge of inflation, track with it. of course the fed is looking to meet on the january meeting.fomc individual stocks, black & decker weighing into the theme concerns of global growth. read you this quote, less than estimates, but there arel they said, signs global economic growthing is slowing and that the u.s. coming to soon be the end of one of the most ndearing recoveries in u.s. history. those comments are putting pressure on the stocks today, 15%. all the concerns about what u.s. like in 2019. >> taylor riggs thank you. clear message out of the
forum, globala growth is slowing. how much? how the federal reserve might react? spoke with the u.s. 70 ral bank readjusting 2019.in >> the fed down for one or two moves this year. happening on it is auto pilot. it might move in summer. ikely to see a weak first quarter and weak fourth quarter. i think the fed will pause and will depend resume on better data coming in second half of the year. inappropriate n mistake in desire to tighten level that icy at a was faster than the capital markets could handle. >> at some point, fed policy has it - of course, every time starts process of normalization, we see the world is different once again. while there was a sense the u.s. economy was potentially in because ofverheating the tight labor market, now you
have uncertainty and the that the world is a lot slower than people expected year. >> joining us is jim mcdonald investments strategist at northern trust. he joins us from chicago. it seems like there is consensus emerging at davos that bleaker than they seemd and perhaps federal reserve should rethink policy little e pause for a longer than a pause. what is the thinking at northern trust right now? so, it is not really a news flash the global economy is slowing. were concerned about that through 2018 and wanted to see reset.rs get second key ingredient was seeing the fed acknowledge that, they january.ginning of we actually moved from neutral risk position to putting risk into our tactical portfolios over the last couple of weeks. how is that manifesting
itself? what kind of risk and where? jim: sure. primarily focused in u.s. over ield bonds and also u.s. equity and global real estate. we think investor expectations to make valuations more ark tractive and it just better risk return outlook over year as a result. look e: would that out change were we to see worsening gdp growth? getting much because of the shutdown, but existing 6.4%.sales today down services index is negative now. we saw some manufacturing indicators point to slowing manufacturing growth. what are you anticipating for q1 gdp and how would that impact your view? first d broaden it out, quarter will be really messy. we're thinking low 2% growth rate for the full year. the market will be okay with that. custill get earnings growth in 5% range.
add 2% dividend yield, 7% return any potential ut boost from valuation. this is the first time in felt like there is actually potential for tail opposed valuations as to headwind we've been experiencing. are you basing this on the fact stocks sold off too uch or valuations in certain areas are perhaps too cheap or s this also backed by some fundamental? outlook for trade might get better later in the year? is absolutely balance of the two. if stocks are cheap, but the further lows down much from here, it will be value trap. the issue on trade remains a risk. this economic expansion, we think will not end on its own. will end because of man-made problems. fed, they amealiorated that risk. the risk does always but there are risk and have you to balance
what has been priced in and looks the risk-reward better, we think it does today. vonni: what is your argument for high-yield interest? jim: high-yield bonds good way get risk exposure in the market. they give you upside participation. market correction, the s&p down 19%, high-yield down 6.re they roared back this year in a cycle. the biggest mistake that investors make with high-yield bonds is selling once they have gone down in price. analysis we've done over the last 30 years shows the longest to wait to get back to break-even after high-yield nine months. so the current yield is 7%, income.ou nice vonnie: what point do you think high yield?rns for what point do you imagine the cycle turns for high yield? point is it no longer a
good idea? jim: sure. we y read on the economy, think we got aa false signal in fourth quarter of 2018, as we investment grade, there was concern about the cycle. at a ofit margins are cycle high in the high yield issue or universe and leverage at a low.y so we just think the fundamentals look pretty good risk case will be downturn in the economy, we just don't see that over the term.ediate vonni: you said you like u.s., there a f the u.s. is certain part of the world you would have exposure? jim: look at global real estate. economies, global real estate benefits from better stock market, stable interest also very nment and much trades as does credit and since we're constructive on here, global real estate looks like good opportunity also. vonni: globally, talking europe,
asia-pacific region? jim: global real estate exposure making bets d, not on individual regions there, we are bet og asset class. exposure across the major economies. vonni: thanks to jim mcdonald at northern trust. blackstone c.e.o. steven, says the economy won't recession, hear his insight from the world economic forum in davos. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.
again, the financial times is reporting the u.s. has tentative offer for two china vice ministers to come for that is showing how difficult it would be to get something in place by march 1. market seems leg lower off the back of the ft report, down 1.7%. nasdaq is down a full 2%, session low. vix back above 20 and dollar index is weighty, the yen is money at 109.18. the u.s. can expect growth rate to grow. he economy will not slip into recession, according to lackstone c.e.o. stephen.n: stephen schwarzman: there are a for that,s, you know, including the corruption investigation in china, which
making approvals on things more difficult. is more government intervention in the private sector. that are being discussed although financial isn't that great. so they have three things going literally an endless cycle of economic growth. whether they grow 5% or 6%, still a lot, but their growth rates have been. and it is normal to be sensitive. it is particularly important for them because they were trying to and be more conservative financially, but pocket, you an air all of a sudden have to borrow money, respend it. to restart your economy. >> you have a window into the
negotiations with china. your perspective, steve, how are they going? stephen schwarzman: i'd say going pretty well compared to times.her i think you need some perspective. it has been 70 years since we've had a trade agreement with china. so that is a lot of failure and places. appears to ave what be ahead of state of china and the united states who would like something.s >> do you think we'll see something by end of february set ine that the president when he held off tariffs in december? stephen schwarzman: you will see something, success or failure. >> let me ask differently, are hinese prepared to make concessions the trump administration wants? stephen schwarzman: i don't one in any negotiation side prevails. something y'll be much more in the middle than just what the u.s. wants or just
the chinese want. i think one of the important people don't st think about as they talk about those discussions, talk about deficits, talk about tariffs, talk about intellectual property. things that i think could potentially be a deal -- breaker and ompliance and the u.s. is very focused making sure anything that is agreed upon actually occurs. enforced. stephen schwarzman: that enforcement mechanism becomes key. blackstone c.e.o. david eric.ng to staying in davos, the c.e.o. earlier at the bloomberg event from the world economic forum. the bank d about why is not counting out struggling european rivals, pay attention start-ups in the syntax space. recognize that
digitization of bank suggest here to stay and accelerate. i use is the analogy 'm out in silicon valley meeting with fentech companies and the conversation in some evolved, a bit. i remember meeting four or five there in a tech person, young tech person sitting in front of me and sat the table and said i'm coming to eat your lunch old man. i'm not isten, dismissive, not dismissive at all. trademe you realliment to eight or nine times multiple, e'd love to have you in the industry. what i've seen, positive -- young happened to that person? michael: what's come from that is different approach. is think about that fintech
company that has come up with technology and can bring to our million and touch 140 clients around the world in 100 scale them we can on day one. >> so you bought him? but el: we don't buy him, we are happy to partner with him, happy to pay for and buy their goods and services. we actually don't think those companies should exist inside of ours. development and spend a lot of time and development on it. we want the outside world, we're happy to buy technology. we're happy to partner technolo technology. invent our own. >> some people looking at the beinghead talk about this the year fintech could come under pressure, credit risk are peep frel -- silicon valley. are you worried at all? have you changed your -- i think what people are speaking to when they say that, tested.els need to be
we haven't been through a cycle smchlt ways, people decided they doing new, different and interesting ways of underwriting credit. we don't know how that will and we'll see. like any of these, we simply need to test them over time and turns, some point it will, they'll be tested, lots of learning in there and they'll think to be very positive evolution. michael he c.e.o. corbat speaking in davos. ebay.ahead, saving lliott says changes are needed at the giant. take a look at the five-step plan it is proposing. that is next. this is bloomberg. bloomberg.
period et for prolonged of time. for more, ebay reporter spencer from seattle. what has been the reaction from ebay to this letter? spencer: pretty standard reaction to the letter, vonnie, saying we're glad elliott management recognizes the significant value to marketplace to discuss with them. still pretty muted response as of yet. ebay has a list of things elliott wanted to do, the works some in already. what is elliott proposes ebay do process?p the spens are: this is significant indictment on c.e.o. and management, they don't mention the letter. they are saying the c.e.o. has things like nt invest nothing artificial intelligence and machine earning to build a bedrock of modern ebay moving into the
future. they are calling it distractions ebay more they want focused on building the potentially nd divesting itself of things like classified business, pairing down and focusing on the marketplace. a big deal. the c.e.o. has been pushing investments and saying it will take a long time. but saying that since the split paypal in 2015 and investors are losing patience. going to at is it take, what point does elliott lookore proactive, will it for board seats or replacements? too early to say on that, we'll watch what happens ith how receptive ebay manage cemetery to this. again, you do kind of feel like have seen this movie before. there are activists, about ebay tating
spliting from paypal and ultimately did prevail and the split.mpanies now ebay is once again, being a problem with investors that are with how ebay is performing in the shadow of more and seeing some pressure to speed things along. whether it will go more more atively or aggressively like it did in remains al situation, to be seen. vonnie: elliott owns 4% now and -- building up a position, there has been what is up a position. to say this is not activist, you now, return money to shareholders, cut costs and get rid of some of the assets? yeah, that certainly could be the case and they want to see value created in any and that could be, you know, selling stubhub and and ng classified business the marketplace paired down could be more attractive target of companies
like walmart, target, take your any company looking to compete online. t's got 180 million customers, tens of millions of sellers, asset.tractive vonnie: the stock is down, but better day today, thanks to bloomberg's spencer in us.tle for let's get a quick data check. the tone in the market is disimproving, this after the ft eported u.s. rejected offer from china for preparatory trade s&p down. markets. seeing .
sergeant at arms today asking to schedule a walk-through for the of a in anticipation january 29th delivery. last week, house speaker nancy the president to postpone his address until the partial government shutdown is over. today's speaker pelosi reiterated that the president government as he negotiations to end the shutdown continue. >> the government, open the let's talk. understand le] -- that is part of the point of this. speaker's comments come as senior democrats took a possible toward compromise deal on immigration and border security over the weekend. offered ay, mr. trump
three years of deportation relief for some immigrants, as changes to asylum rules in return for 5.7 billion for walls and other assorted upgrades. democrats, including speaker pelosi, rejected the idea before the president spoke. a native american man involved an encounter between white teens in a group outside lincoln memorial last week says he wants to meet with the students involved. enquirer citing tation from nathan phillips offering to travel to the high school and have dialogue about appropriate, racism and importance of listening to and respecting diverse cultures. he would like to use what occurred as a teachable moment. mike pompeo state says he's optimistic about upcoming trade discussions with hina in washington, addressing delegates at world economic forum via video link because of ongoing government shutdown.
secretary pompeo said he's our two nation consist thrive and prosper ogether," high-level chinese d elegation is due to arrive in washington next week. powered by 2700 journalists and in over 120 countries. i'm mark compton, this is bloomberg. bloomberg. >> live from bloomberg world headquarters. toronto, i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. audiences.loomberg here are top stories we're following from around the world. red. stocks in the major averages falling 1.5% asa outlook for trade
continue to weigh unrest appetite. one, leaders in business are in switzerland for the world economic forum, we'll highlights from the saudi aramco c.e.o. who reigns supreme on the index?ion look at the data this half-hour. full nda, we are in earnings season right now, ubs kicking autopsy for european banks, warning the worst may not be over. we know that u.b.s. has been away from investment banking and into the wealth management unit. have seen volatility, geopolitical tensions and that uncertainty. clients pulling out 13 billion ollars in assets, just in the final month of 2018. not all doom and gloom, the talking about the performance by u.b.s. in a broader context. take a listen.
>> if i look at the u.s., we outflows. if i look at invested assets, we've been performing better all our peers in the four quarters. it looks like this is something entire ppened in the market, the only firm report anything money in the u.s. market. that our competitive changed. hasn't really it's reflective of the sentiment we saw in q4. leverage and more people going into cash. to see, nteresting shery, of that 13 billion, 8 management ealth business. important for u.b.s. and interesting he says they are peers.forming their the big question is whether that sentiment is seen elsewhere and says about the direction of markets. honest, stock market performance of their peers, including u.b.s., banks the startone badly in of 2019, whether in europe or
here in the u.s. today, though, financials taking a hit for the 50 time after 11 sessions of gains. to put in you have broader context, the dow, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq all more than 1.5%, industrial and energy leading really risk of sentiment out there, amanda, mostg japanese yen gaining in a week and the dollar hovering around the two-week high, as well. we've been watching the price of oil. start with canadian story, that it affects western canada oil that trades at steep global oil prices. today we learned there will be by a vestment, 2 billion private company in upgrading facility. ou have seen that discount narrowing because of projections in that province. wti, of course, back up, it had been trading higher. we're seeing weakness for energy today, but you can see there has
been a pop-up, back about $52 barrel that had many excited. the one year looks pretty gloomy. forum is economic underway in davos, the world's biggest names in business and there.cs are ferro sat down and discussed future for the oil giant. >> we have large opportunities n different parts of the world in terms of potential for acquisition, we are in discussion in different a lot es currently with of partners, reviewing these opportunities to make final terms of investment. a lot is in partnerships with companies around the orld and it is an investment lng investment or both. >> are you comfortable to know that kind ed states, of investment would be welcome, accepting of that? seems to be tension right
now betweening congress and the kingdom. will harm your strategic objective to some extent? on don't see any issues that. quite -- in terms of investment, welcome, we are looking at opportunities, major in our refinery in he u.s. we are almost 10 billion already ongoing right now. we are looking to expand that to defining capacity. we, as gas opportunities, some of it, we are currently in discussion with committees in u.s. so the opportunities are there, we don't see problem from anybody in terms of -- >> the world economic forum, question.th a final how welcomes the saudi delegation? we as a couple months ago were talking about people dropping out of davos, is it business as usual? it is get the sense business as usual?
has anything change? ed about saudi lking aramco. for us, we are actually what and last his year around the growth. we're looking to be leader when it comes to oil. looking to be the lead esh when petro chemical,, trading, four million barrels, six million, huge investment and opportunity. if you look at what happened fii, followed by total lot add conference with a of participation in the energy, of participation in when we nd we had upgraded the energy city, groundbreaking for the energy partners from different part of the world. testament is --
>> do you think that is testament for the situation at the moment? the way we're looking at things, business, we have usiness opportunity in the kingdom and outside with our partners. we are exploring that. opportunity for these investment to materialize. exploring as i say, all of these opportunities. or in different parts of the world. saudi aramco c.e.o. amin nasser. ension running high between canada and china over december arrest of huawei c.e.o. hasn't asked the u.s. to drop the extradition request. from chrystia freeland next. this is bloomberg. mberg.
>> global leader and corporate davos ves descended on for the world economic forum. uncertainty has been topic of conversations. >> i wouldn't say governments, the nments can be part of solution. the obstacle to solving problems is politics and we need better to get, we need political leaders to get people issues and long-term to be willing to make short-term successes that are necessary to address them. this is a very different environment than the one we faced in 2007 and 2008. is why i think the key risk is here mistake or mistakes hether from the corporate side or the policy side that lead to something worse than a sloedown. investment will make us grow next year. the uncertainty is generated, income of growth. >> i would say political ncertainty certainly doesn't make job as business leaders
easier. there are few things, i think us believe in. political stable, framework, pro business policies, because i believe in that is best way to generate growth. > political problems have prompted notable absences. theresa may skipped the trip to passing nd to focus on her brexit deal and president trump cancelled the entire u.s. with the to deal government shutdown. he furlough reached day 32 and bloomberg eric glassman joins us from capitol hill with the latest. headed into the long weekend with some optimism, but myselfed deal ovm between president trump and senior democrats. what happened since then? eric: president trump came out on saturday with new offer, same 5.7 for the border wall, attaching temporary reprieve deportation for the
dreamers, young undocumented mmigrants who came to this country as children, 700,000 included in the proposal, three-year reprieve from deportation and some people who statusmporary protective who lost their protection. so far democrats are not jumping n this offer, leaders are saying it is not acceptable. trump initially was the one to tps he daca program and program. they are looking for a permanent fix. however, if you look between the is potential outline of a deal f. government reopens, democrats could decide to seek dreamers.p for shery: is this part of compromise? does it feel as though things are moving in the right direction? more hopeful than last week. we saw the letter from pelosi the state of the union and trump leaking the idea and allon to afghanistan
putting the speaker's life in danger. low point in the talks. senator mitch mcconnell, top deal maker on the republican side, felt he needed to get involved. trump to come out and back compromise offer, putting senate back in the game. mitch mcconnell is best player on the g.o.p. side as far as ending the shutdown. sidelines now, this gives me hope it could end this will miss al workers first paycheck then next week. 0,000 workers being affected. ho is being affected by the record shutdown? eric: nine government departments, interior and state ture and department. half federal workers are working without pay, that means they workers to show up, tsa and others and not get paid. they are approaching the first pay, mortgagehout payments and rental payments will be coming due. we are seeing food banks set up around washington, d.c. to help becoming moret is
dire situation. with us from rg capitol hill. thank you. geopolitical tensions have taken davos.tage at we've seen, that includes escalating feud between canada china over december arrest of huawei c.e.o. in vancouver. affairs of foreign chrystia freeland sat down to talk about the case and called with beijing central concern. the tia: when it comes to arrest of mrs. meng. remind people she is out on bail now. she owns some funeral home necessary vancouver and is there. will continue to have full access to the canadian judicial system impartial and objective. fairest system in the world. her father of huawei said generous. he is understandably concerned about his daughter, which any understand and he
commented on how kindly she had been treated and he was the canadian justice system would be fair. he should be and it will be. are you meeting with the chinese in davos? >> we'll see. the >> who might it be with? >> we'll see. >> what will you say to them? say, partly what i just said to you. >> uh-huh. chrystia: i think it is for china, for chinese peep and he will huawei to nderstand that the canadian legal system is fair and impartial to anyone, whether canadians,r not only also as you said in your correct detention of the mrs. meng was not about a canadian case. accused of anything in canada, neither charged or convicted of anything in canada, extradition treaty with the united states, we share with the united states the world's unmilitarized border and canada rule of law country, act our commitment.
>> have you seen or heard enough u.s. isfy you that the case against meng wanzhou is valid? well, first of all, that is not going to be for me to judge, that will be for the canadian court to judge. and that is very important distinction. political judgmentfirst of all, at this point. he u.s. has 60 days from the moment of detention to formally present its case and that date due on the 30th of january. >> there is some question as to political ada's system is being used as a -- canada's justice system being used as a political its by the united states in role war with chinaa over trade and ip theft, how do you address that? chrystia: i have heard those concerns raised and it would be bsolutely wrong for the canadian criminal justice system to be used in that way. that we are lear
rule of law country. we are a country that honors treaty commitments and this, detention of mrs. meng s a criminal justice matter exclusively, we would have guessed strongly for the notion bei ining politicized in any ay and been clear from the outset. >> if president trump is to be taken at his word that he would case against mrs. meng in exchange for a good trade you agree by definition it's already being politicize? ed aware of those comments and it is my job, eric to speak for canada and i'll let administration speak for itself. eric: has canada asked the case states to drop the against mrs. meng or to consider dropping it? chrystia: no. spoken to the united states about the case. the united sion for states whether to seek extradition of someone from is canada or r it
not, that is up to them. they have to make the case for our legal tion in system. >> canada's foreign minister with ia freeland speaking bloomberg's eric. coming up, the bloomberg nnovation index of the world's most innovative countries, take a look at who is leading the 2019. for that is next. this is bloomberg. shery: the annual bloomberg
i am a proud korean, six-time why is south korea leading? >> yes, south korea leading for reasons, real investment in high-tech sectsor, moved toward policies that encourage this kind of innovation and that maintain lead against germany who climbed up the ranks and close second this year. germany, however, based on my and ague reporting reporting of the index, is at risk of slipping behind. they are relying on classic traditional manufacturing whereas south korea move intoing innovation industries. shery: for us, between the host,tion index and whole seven different data point necessary terms of investing in ew industries and growing them and well being of the people measured bluntly, gross national
income, correlation, but not perfect. how important is it to be index? on the innovation jeanne: indication is indicator.king innovation can encourage stronger growth down the line nd that is the kind of thing that grows gross domestic roduct and allowed for shared prosperity, i think it is important how the companies grow. way that e growing in is positive for their workers nd positive for the industry around them, that is very obviously good for the nation and good for the people in it. if they are grow nothing way that is more concentrated and capturing all income gains, then that might mean less people in the country around them. shery: could be looking good for the rank y moved up and beat the u.k. this time. it was an hought interesting index. they climbed up to 16th place to 18. u.k. slipped down
first time china beat the u.k. they have been very ascending that, they son for have really been filing a lot of patents. hey came in right behind the u.s. for patent filing, which is important, one of the more indexes, or ng parts of this index, patent filing. pay off down the road, clearly something to watch from data.et of shery: thank you for that. one-year , it is anniversary of amazon go, introduceed with fanfare and is the cashier less retail experience, amazon the u.s. stores across and while i think technology is being adopted in many ways retailers, we have yet to human less off, retail experience that could be in our future. amazon go have nine necessary three cities, haven't been able to visit one. retrofitting the
shops into new digital age could cost a lot of money. seeing other companies trying to help that, bringing in likeative ways of shopping reinventing the shopping cart, dding scanner, payment system, making it easier, you can see on firmsart, venture capital 2018.$111 million in >> seems like of interest in the is of concern for some jobs, should note there is downside to the technology. true.at is i would like to experience it. i'm going to visit one of those stores soon. join us in davos tomorrow for coverage of the world economic we'll havetwo, where interviews with some biggest names in business and politics. toronto, new york and this is bloomberg. bloomberg.
the justices voted 5-4 to put on hold the lower court decision that blocked the ban and the thinking is that the court will eventually uphold the restrictions. the united states and canada, ining abused their position the hallway executive. the fate may not be decided between the talks with u.s. and china. the request of the u.s. allegations over bank fraud and violation sanctions in iran. the united nations is warning that european nations need to act urgently to do stem the constant flow of migrants into europe and human rights watch responded saying that they have been contributing to a cycle of extreme abuse against people fleeing war and poverty. inspectors for the greek
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