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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  April 1, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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left in companies like lyft and uber? i think the revenue trends and growth come over time, but it is at ag at -- for lyft market cap $20 billion. sizable already when it comes out of the ipo. what we see in lyft the next few weeks will be indicative of -- indicative of the risk appetite going forward. ruffled manage to feathers today, nasdaq closing up 1.29% despite this. toyou wouldn't expect lyft be necessarily a big read on the market but it is a little surprising because you would think in an exuberance of a day like today, people would be buying everything. >> eight of 11 sectors finishing
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higher. within the dow, you have decliners of mcdonald's, united health. caterpillar, united technologies, jp morgan, all gaining at least 3% on the day. >> let's take a look at what some of our market reporters were paying attention to as we head into the close. >> i was looking at a chart highlighted by sarah earlier in the day. that is the s&p 500 forming and closing in golden cross formation. that is when the 60 day moving average rises above the 200 day moving average. periodly the six-month following a golden cross is positive for the market. septembers highs right here, including the profitability of topping them. a golden cross is the opposite of a death cross, last seen in
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december, when a selloff quickly follows. >> good news is good news. let's try to qualify and quantify that to look at what we are seeing in euro-dollar markets and the stock market. teal lines are fed easing. we were pricing in last week more than two cuts by the end of 2020 and more than one cut by the end of this year. what we have seen now is that stocks have been able to rally even as fed easing bids have diminished. -- we canme kind of a get over that. fromer, it is a far cry pricing in easing to the potential for hikes. tlt had its biggest one-day selloff since jerome powell.
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that seems like a lifetime ago. >> i will talk about something no one has talked about yet, and that is metal and mining stocks. thenight out of china, better data. a lot of these forecasted production deficits that we've been hearing about, that is through commodity prices whether it is nickel, zinc, aluminum. a good tactical investment given some of the uncertainties surrounding the brilliant disruptions we've seen. we are seeing all these commodities returning. the whole lot of them. a lot of folks saying this could be a trade to hold onto. coming off one of their best quarters we've seen in quite some time. ofstill with us is anthony ameriprise financial. about anthony talking
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trade deals. we think commodities rally. of deal, get some sort even if it's not a good one. >> you could say that it is. if you were going into this week believing that maybe we were going to have some good news, then yes, that could absolutely add some fuel to the fire for stocks. there is the possibility that it just gets kicked out once again and we keep treading along and hearing we are going to get a deal but we don't quite get one. there is no doubt that people are thinking about investors really highlighting this coming into the meeting. that really characterized the first quarter, treasuries rallied, commodities rallied.
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they posted their biggest loss since october 3. is the story going to be this quarter, if .tocks and bonds >> i can't answer it definitively. even though the markets can continue to trend higher, some of the points i made where that positive environment, cyclical stocks all to do through that environment within those sectors, you should be focusing on quality companies, stable balance sheets, predictable earnings streams. i think those companies haven't been as recognized as those that went up. s&p 500, the best start to a
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year since 1998. alongk as we get further in this earnings season, it's going to be very apparent that companies that have strong revenue, that can have more predictable earnings, may get rewarded more in the marketplace where there is still quite a bit of uncertainty out there. if we don't get a trade deal and economic data doesn't improve, that i think investors will want to have those kind of companies in their portfolio. >> the biggest drop since october 3 when jay powell said we are a long way from neutral. the inverted yield curve, has anyone mentioned it today? that it is still helping financials. tracksk at the etf that regional banks. 10k in september, when the year was still at 3.2%.
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ake luke said, it seems like lifetime ago. you look at the 10 year today, about about 2.5%. right where we were last week. we are seeing changes. as it comes to the yield curve, you have to take it as a signal if it remains. we will have to see if we can stay in positive territory. is it also friday, the labor data -- i'm sure joe is still holding his breath. >> in terms of the employment report, we expect the trend to continue. we saw some really weak february numbers that can be attributed to weather. three month averages at about 186. that is late job growth in terms of this stage of the cycle. what we've been talking about with clients, the american household is in great shape.
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their debts are manageable, the labor market is as strong as it has been since the 1960's. wage inflation has been moving higher. we expect that if the labor market can continue to show signs of growth, which we think it will for the march data, that we can see other improvements, with interest rates moving .ower, the interest rates i think we can get the snowballing effect, than improve for sort of the rest of the quarter. >> of course, the the jobs report due friday. we have some headlines on boeing. the faa says time is needed for additional work but it does say a boeing software update should
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come up for approval in the coming weeks. not much of a reaction for boeing in after hours trade. we will see how it gets approved and whether that will lift the stocks further. for now, that does it for the closing bell and for me. miss," we willu be looking at the brexit talks. ♪
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♪ fromine: we are live
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bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. here's a snapshot of how u.s. stocks closed higher on the day, the highest since october of 2018. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss." is lookinghe u.k. for a brexit consensus that has eluded the country for more than two years. germany's manufacturing slump leaves europe again seeming the weak link in the global economy. reverse -- and lyft in reverse on the second day of trading. we begin with brexit plan b. u.k. lawmakers have just finished voting on four alternative options. we are joined by guy johnson from london with the latest. you stayed late for us yet again. we thank you. remember that the government
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is under no obligation to take any of these options forward. it could put theresa may and a sticky position. she has tried many times to put her deal over the line. certainly she will be under a great deal of pressure not to bring her deal back at a further time. the first is a customs union, a permanent customs union with the eu. the second would be a customs union and continuing ongoing membership of the single currency, the norway plus option. those ones are being discussed very carefully this evening to see if they get through. theresa may has scheduled day cabinet meeting tomorrow morning
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to discuss what happens next. if one of these votes come through, could theresa may go and keep herels leadership intact with the conservative party? guy i think the answer is yes and no. yes, she could take this back to brussels. let's say the ticket through the house of commons to stay in the customs union. that would take care of the northern ireland backstop. going one step further to stay in the single market, that would be even better news. let's get to the no bit. i think she would definitely struggle to remain leader of the conservative party. whether or not we are heading for a split within the conservative party, i think that would be openly discussed within the united kingdom. i think if we had a soft brexit,
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it would be a struggle to keep the conservative party together. romaine: we saw the latest u.k. manufacturing data and we saw a huge spike in orders. that suggests a lot of businesses are sort of stockpiling a huge amount of supplies. we don't exactly know why but some of this could be tied to brexit. any sense that parliament and the politicians are aware of this or even care? aware ofink they are it but whether they care about it, i don't know. you say, very strong manufacturing reading, 55.1, well above the estimates. the basis on which companies are storing a lot of stuff to make sure they don't run out of goods they need.
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less to do with the storage costs. the amount of working capital you've got to tie up in your business, that is extremely expensive. caroline: plenty of shocking data. joe: are we going to run footage? caroline: we will save it. joe: to turkey, president erdogan suffering a rare setback at the ballot box. the country's biggest city turned against him for the first time since 1994. joining us as the director of the turkey project at the center for strategic and international studies in washington. thank you for joining us. how big of a setback is this for president erdogan? >> as big as they come. careern his political coming to the summit of turkish
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of this temple. -- in 1994 when he became mayor of istanbul. for the last decade or so, almost 16 years now, he's tremendous amount of control. how does the government sorted operate when you have someone like erdogan still in power but a government that maybe isn't completely under his control like it was in the past? bulent: the government at the national level has been under adogan's control since referendum allowed transition to a presidential system. all the cabinet ministers are -- parliament, the way
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turkish presidents and prime ministers had to answer in the past. i think the municipal -- the loss of municipal control in istanbul and uncover a -- and ankara are important. but what is very important is the reverse is clearly worrying to erdogan. there could be additional losses to uncut -- to undercut his authority and control over the government. four election free years. do we see a doubling down of populism? people have argued that mr. erdogan's car doesn't really have breaks, only an accelerator. people expect him to slow down,
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he will hit the gas. the problem he will immediately have to confront is the electoral process at the local level. double-digit inflation, very high unemployment. almost 40% inra, the past year. -- takenken almost measures in the election campaign to overcome those. ist he will do afterwards unclear. what he will do is send all of branches to those who say populism will not work in turkey and try to make up with external investors who may be concerned about these moves. or he could double down. very unpredictable leader and obviously wants to do only what
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he wants to do. it is striking how much the setback was in the cities, the major cities, where he -- where his party lost power. talk about the rural versus urban priorities and what that means for his administration going forward? bulent: net position used to be much more important in the old days. because of migration from rural areas to the cities. migrants from other parts of turkey who come looking for jobs. the failure of the government, which has been very successful. throughout the 16 years you mentioned, to provide jobs for thirdcond and now the
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generation. there has been a rush migration from the cities back to the rural areas because obviously people are finding it difficult. these elections are focused on the cities. obviously the concerns of those who live in these cities, population of over 50 million. 10 million voters turned up in the elections. those guys are extremely unhappy and want to find a way to overcome their concerns. i think dealing with the concerns of these rural supporters will be just as important as dealing with those concerns. that is bulent aliriza, director of the turkey project at the center for strategic and
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national studies. coming up a german factory slump. this is uber. -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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joe: diverging economic fortunes in the u.s. and europe. germany lagging the euro area overall. the editor of bloomberg businessweek joins us now. let's start with europe. we got a report in the middle of the month from germany, and that was really bad. the number today was even worse. is there any floor? >> they had the terrible third-quarter, outright recession. they say, now germany will come out of it in 2019.
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that is still the forecast. this is certainly a bad number and a worrisome number. but i don't think overall it ends the story that germany is starting to emerge from its slump. caroline: china seems to be getting itself out of its trough and in many ways, germany is very related to china. >> germany is an export related economy. weak,l, global growth is but the thought is this might be the low point. caroline: looking at the redline, the chinese line, just starting to get higher. newloomberg economics has a data tracker. it says 2.2 percent global economic growth, and it will strengthen throughout the year. weaine: back in the u.s.,
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got a retail sales report that at least on the surface looks kind of bad, but i've had people tell me it looks like a relatively good report. a the headline number was 0.7%decline coming off a increase. december was terrible. a lot of people don't trust this number. it seems to be bouncing around a lot. yes, it is not as glom as you would think, sales outright falling. strong ism, the strong construction spending, yield curve no longer inverted. are the concerns of recession off? but i they are never off was never the recession camp to begin with. are going tok we get a recession this year and most economists do not believe
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we are going to get a recession this year. the fact that the yield curve is no longer inverted, the markets are feeling more that way. bill dudley, the former president of the new york fed, has a byline column for bloomberg that is pretty optimistic as well, and he says, look, the stock market is way up, which is both an indicator of people's beliefs, but itself a positive. the fed is backing off. they are optimistic that they don't have a recession. caroline: we know who else likes market as a benchmark. a quick check of what is happening in the u.k. we know that members of parliament are voting on the plan b's of brexit. we know they are voting on pen
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and paper. the results, soon. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: as we've been reporting, lawmakers have finished voting forour alternative options leaving the european union. house of commons speaker john bercow select of the options, all of which would either keep closer ties to the eu that prime minister theresa may's plans have entailed or scrapped brings it all together. votes last week failed to produce a majority for any outcome. ton fein president traveled --
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negotiator michel barnier. speaking after the meeting, mcdonald said the negotiations are now at what they call a key moment. >> i think it is time for some within the british tory party in particular to come off their high horse and to recognize and understand that whatever happens, the issue of ireland is not going away. the necessity to protect the good friday agreement is not going away. any hardening of the border is a reality. irrespective of the tory party, of who is in downing street, those are the bottom line. mark: mcdonald said that any hardening of that border would represent a step backward for ireland. she said they are not technical issues. this is a big, big technical difficulty for ireland.
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the committee will vote this week on whether to issue subpoenas seeking special counsel robert mueller's full report. the justice department looks set to miss tomorrow's deadline set by democrats for the release. attorney general william barr says a redacted version will be released by the middle of the month. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. bloomberg. romaine: metlife is encouraging other companies to push against regulators who may be overstepping their authorities. >> first, dig into the facts and make sure you have that correct. we looked outside and got some help to say, if we were to fail, as unlikely as that might be,
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would we be so interconnected to the economy that we would be in a too big to fail bucket and hurt the overall economy? have decided against pushing back by regulations should they be emboldened by the metlife example. decide to go down that road. we thought we had the facts on we stuck to our guns and said, we will do it respectfully. i would encourage other ceos, if regulators overstep their legal bounds -- regulators are human, they will make mistakes -- you should go forward and assert your rights for your shareholders, your customers, your employees. >> be bold.
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>> it is a delicate balance that governments and regulators need to strike between safety and soundness of the financial system and profitability, return on equity. is this administration doing a better job than the last one? someecrisis, there was light regulation of parts of our financial system. then we saw a pendulum spring heart -- swing hard the other way. let's overregulated, we can always adjust things later. you might be out of business before you adjust things if you don't push back. that was our decision. >> where you stand on the debate over interest rates right now? the president and some other people want interest rates to be lower, but low rates are terrible for the insurance industry, pension funds for
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example. >> there will be a pension fund. ates are extremely low on historical basis in terms of basic returns over the 10 year treasury and basic returns for the 10 year treasury. low and it rates are hurts industries like life insurance, like savers in general. interest rates, lower interest rates, but there is a trade-off. caroline: that was the interview with metlife ceo, or the outgoing ceo at least. needing a lift after lyft plunges below its debut price? this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: ridesharing company lyft went public on friday in the highest stock sale of the year but it didn't take long for the doubters to show up with shares plunging and falling below the ipo price, closing at $69 on the day. tom white, an analyst who has a buy rating on lyft. there are a lot of people who look at this, they look at a lot of other ipos that stumbled out of the gate. carr vona, some of the companies like that. are we reading too much? are we making too much out of a drop compared to what the expectations were. >> you know, it is definitely important and notable that it
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couldn't hold the $72 level. are two days in. the- it reflects some of short-term money that was given allocations on the ipo. we are disinclined to read too much into this as either a 's long-termyft fundamental or intrinsic value, or the potential for a successful ipo of some of the other related companies that are reportedly -- -- reportedly going to list shares. caroline: what about the calls you are fielding on the underlying business models at the moment? the underlying thing is, how do you justify it on a company that loses a billion? >> i think that what -- that what companies are attracted to with lyft is that it is kind of
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a momentum play in u.s. ridesharing. they have gained market share compared to uber over the past few years. that has translated into share gains and also really heavy revenue growth. they are significantly growing the revenues faster than uber's rideshare business. the valuation that the deal came out at is not at nosebleed type levels of valuation. based on enterprise value to sales. at $70, which is maybe a little bit higher than the stock traded today, it is trading at six times are 2019, which isn't cheap for a lot of people, but if you compare it to a lot of other high-growth companies with really wide open and addressable markets, also some that are not profitable like lyft is, we think there is upside to the march --to the multiple? joe: comparables, who do you look at?
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>> it is tough to find a perfect comp. we look at kind of high-growth, very wide-open, and a mix of profitability. we look at companies like square, roku, companies like the trade desk, like netflix. it is kind of a hodgepodge. romaine: presumably in the next , when you compare the -- companies >> it is hard to say on uber just yet because we haven't had a granular view just yet, what companies are looking for in terms of a granular valuation. i think what is interesting with
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uber is that it doesn't have to be a zero-sum game in terms of investors owning these two stocks. growth drivers and opportunities. norths a pure play on american auto transportation being disrupted. uber obviously gives you more geographic exposure as well as sort of near-term opportunities, and also some longer-term kind of moon shots if you will when it comes to things like vertical takeoff and landing. we think that this is going to appeal to a slightly different set of investors. tom, thank you for joining us. now joining us on the phone, marketing professor at nyu stern school of business. i'm curious what your take is overall on the kind of chilly reception that lyft has gotten
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in the public market so far and what it pretends to others waiting in the wings. on friday thatw the markets have entered into --lyft shareholders have entered into potential with management. i don't want to seem like i'm piling on. thursday night, i predicted it would hit $100 and get cut in half within six. it hit $90. have threerade things. no work effects, explosive growth, and near monopoly power. it does have explosive growth. i failed to see how network effects, which they mentioned a dozen times in the prospectus, are at play here. i am very bearish on this. caroline: that is what
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differentiates it from perhaps the case where every says, huber is a company that was growing revenue but never had the profitability. you feel that a companyamazon 'e competition lyft might garner. >> amazon went public eyelet was losing money. some of its twelve-month losses were $5 million. won, and that lyft has it is not a testament to anything positive, is that lyft has managed to go public aggregating the greatest twelve-month loss in the history of any company that has come public. lyft should never be used in the same sentence as amazon. romaine: let's talk more about amazon getting the news today
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that it is cutting prices deeper at whole foods. i guess the data bears that out that it hasn't been able to do that much with whole foods. why can't a company's data make something happen in the retail space? >> amazon has replaced profits with growth and division. is nots core competence data, not fulfillment, it is storytelling. focusing around these nonperishable truisms have captured the marketplace. when they take their core access , which is access to near zero , theyo capital demonstrate what i kind of argue is near monopoly power. better taxpayers
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will probably go out of business. we are seeing a lot of companies reach sort of an inflection point. we saw mark zuckerberg lay out his vision of how we can address some of potential regulatory issues and how to head them off. i'm wondering the potential for some sort of broad national regulation or even state-by-state regulation for social media and content companies. >> it makes sense. i'm sure you are referring to his op-ed in the washington post. organizations don't have to comply with 50 different rules and standards. that facebook, continuing people to regulate them, rings true.
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it is also a bit of an illusion. what is required here is the regulation that would restore competitive dynamics, which is really the key here, antitrust. i believe this company should be breaking up into three firms, facebook, whatsapp, and messenger. the regulatory expense line across big tech is the fastest growing expense line. they are growing their -- faster than ai. i think we have all justifiably become very seminal -- very cynical. caroline: advocating some sort of split up of a company even though some say long-term it could add to more value. what they are saying is proactively saying that there is regulation working already in the eu that could quite easily be taken on board by the u.s.
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and reenacted. from ine can i do apart some way -- can they do apart from in some way trying to find some way to help when capitol hill can come up with no consensus? >> at the end of the day, he has a fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders. there is no evidence, if you just looked at the numbers, the underlying metrics of the business, that this company isn't doing exceptionally well. having said that, it is our responsibility as citizens to elect citizens who put in place antitrust and regulatory bodies who put in place our legacy of breaking companies up when they become an invasive species, suppress competition, kill young companies in the cradle and prematurely kill -- and prematurely euthanize old companies.
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we thank you, nyu's stern school of business. a check on the latest business flash headlines. byerman banking app found peter thiel is changing its strategy when it looks at the u.s. and other markets outside europe. and, a wide range of banking services, saying -- another twist between jeff bezos sent the national enquirer over the weekend. a personal investigator for bezos's is accusing saudi arabia of accessing his phone data. the inquirer's publisher said it learned from the affair from the brother of bezos's lover. but is a he said, she said, what is amazing is that this is even being debated without
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really the facts, coming in the daily beast. what is interesting to me is whether this exposed any of amazon's data if someone is hacking the ceo's phone. joe: it is all really weird but in particular that we are living in this data in which nationstates and ceos of big tech companies are all on the same level and the distinction between private citizens and public is all blending together. romaine: do you remember the good old days when the national enquirer just published about bigfoot and fun-loving stuff? it was a great read. now i don't know what is going on over there. caroline: i'd love to see that. joe: coming up, mixed asian data could be helped by continued optimism for a trade deal between the u.s. and china. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: data out of china showing official and private pmi's now in expansion mode. and performance in japan south korea. should would be as upbeat as seemingly all the markets seem to be? >> you only need chinese data to wipe out those fears of recession. it seems, for the time being, the optimism is on the pmi numbers. the private pmi is also in expansion territory above 50. new orders, export orders at the highest levels in six months, which of course shows more positivity toward future trade activities. we have to take it with a grain of salt.
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the overall trajectory is downwards. joe: when it comes to chinese data, sometimes people dismiss it, sometimes the calendar effect. this number, people coalesce around and say this is a good sign. have: i think it helps we the official numbers from authorities over the weekend. asia time, we have the private pmi numbers, confirming these are in the same trajectory of a recovery. we can't discount the fact that we had the lunar new year holidays in february which could be adding to that base effect. romaine: i'm glad you brought that up because everyone is talking about the manufacturing side. everyone is talking about relatively encouraging data. the gaming revenue fell a lot. there seems to be sort of a trend here where you are seeing more leisure travelers, more middle-class families, not just
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the rich in highrollers. it is really hard to gauge at this point from what level the economy is affecting these people. from the consumer side of things, they seem to still be pretty strong. the mikal story could still be a payoff where these casinos were moving away from the vip gambling sector because of deleveraging efforts and the crackdown of corruption. really investing on entertainment come on family-oriented activities. caroline: let's talk about the big welcome back in d.c. should we be focused on that more than the data? shery: we should be focused on both. the trade negotiators themselves will be focused on the data. right now, we are not hearing that much out of what is happening on the negotiations
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other than sources telling us they are going through the text line by line. is thing we did see concrete coming out with some concessions . ,hat lifting of auto tariffs the 25% tariffs they imposed after the trade war exploded. that is a positive sign. another concession could be the fact that they are including opioid fentanyl into one of those concessions. the chinese saying that is a domestic problem but now they are actually including that. caroline: for more on those stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. the wto issues its forecast report. joe: u.s. auto sales numbers for march coming out. romaine: and don't miss this. walgreens reports its
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second-quarter earnings before the bell. "bloomberg technology" is next in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ emily: i'm emily in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." in the next hour, lyft in reverse. shares fall after investors highlight concerns about how fast ridesharing company can start making money. tesla, after a tumultuous 2018, will give new production numbers this week. bloomberg's tracker shows the es


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