tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 25, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
johnson. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: a really interesting day. on one end of the spectrum, you've got decent tech earnings coming out. you could take that and say i think that will generate a risk on vibe. the tech earnings season in particular is being overshadowed by something more broad. the industrial sector is down, and then there's this kind of broader macro narrative that seems to be out there today. the korean economy is one of those economies you really want to pay attention to. it is a global bellwether. you think about the companies it produces and the areas. that is in. obviously, samsung -- the areas that it is in. obviously, samsung is one of the names that was out. the data is really week, particularly the trade data. the dollar very strong against the korean won. we've moved it 1% today.
the euro is weaker as well. those two stories are related. i think it is the openness of the european economy that is its achilles heel right now. european stocks more broadly down a little bit. you are seeing metal stocks dragging it down here. that is feeding into the story. you've also got the bank stories feeding and as well. we will talk about those in just a moment. the european banking sector down by 3/10 of 1%. the central bank story more broadly, the boj coming out earlier on in talking about pushing stimulus further out. that is worth paying tension -- paying attention to as well. we saw something similar with riksbank. you saw a massive move earlier on. you can see that really clearly. the riksbank sort of delayed the story in terms of timing. that came through into the
swedish krona. vonnie: in the u.s., and spite of several earnings stories, we are seeing industries struggling a little bit. 3m is a big drag today, giving a very soft outlook causing concerns not just for the company, but the global economy. microsoft one of the outperform is today, up almost 4%. it's market cap has topped $1 trillion once or twice already today. it has performed extra nearly well. it is as simple as that. the azure cloud story is still on the march for microsoft. chip stocks, not so much. ande was a massive run-up, there is some selling today, perhaps on overdone optimism on the 5g space. we will see when other chip stocks report later this week how the rest of the industry is faring. as i mentioned, 3m is down 11% as well, another one of those
industrials having just a little bit of a soft time of it. guy: let's talk about the european banking space. it has been in focus for quite some time. today a really big day. deutsche bank and commerzbank ending talks on a tie up. we are joined by one of the top rated analysts on the bank. he is with alpha value their research. he joins us on the phone now. thank you for taking the time to join us. ing stock this afternoon is the worst performing bank stock in europe. is everybody making the conclusion that a deal between ortsche's and ing commerzbank and ing is the most likely next outcome? guest: i think it is more of a combination with commerzbank, as commerzbank is clearly a takeover target. we can discuss later if it would be welcome by the
government. ing is interested in talks with commerzbank. we had this afternoon a conference call with the ceo of commerzbank, but he did not answer any question in this direction. therefore, the market is speculating on this, and maybe that is not good for ing. guy: if you take a look at why these talks failed and take a look at what the union said about cost cuts, does it highlight how difficult it will be for deutsche bank and commerzbank? guest: i had a different view on that. please take in mind, from my view, the talks were not initiated from commerzbank or deutsche bank. they were initiated from the german finance minister. guy wants to rescue
deutsche bank, not commerzbank. if you look at the earnings of deutsche bank, over the last four years, they have released .bout $10 billion lost the economy in germany is worse than that, the deutsche can't survive. therefore he would stabilize the earnings of deutsche, so they .ere focused on commerzbank [indiscernible] -- would have meant that in the end come up to 80% of
commerzbank had to be fired. that it could not realize it. i think they could not have deutsche bank with their strategy be one of the top global investment banks worldwide, and commerzbank has nothing which deutsche's can support in this focus. vonnie: who would you have merged with deutsche bank? are there any options out there for the lender? eter: for deutsche, the option would be clear for many years, from my side. unitlobal investment bank is extremely risky and nonprofitable, so therefore a first step would be to get rid the chairman of the advisory
board, a former goldman partner, and a new chairman could change the strategy. that would be the best option for two. -- for deutsche bank. i don't think that anyone is really interested in deutsche bank as no one can really know what risks are on the balance sheet. it is a little bit opposite with commerzbank. they have their risks better under control, and they are much smaller compared to deutsche bank. maybe the german government has problems to explain to the taxpayer why they support the the of over 3 billion in takeover of commerzbank by a german bank. paid 5man government
billion euros for a stake in commerzbank, and it is worth currently 1.5 billion. vonnie: deutsche bank is taking a hit on the credit market on the failure of this potential deal. what are shareholders saying? shareholder and blackrock, for example. dieter: you would have to ask them if they like it or not. i think in the end, there was no convincing concept of how you withombine both banks advantage for all parties involved. what we could hear in the media is that at best, the shareholders would accept such a merger, but not all were really supporting it. guy: we leave it there. thanks very much indeed. fairesearch analyst there.hein joining us
earlier we heard from the ceos ubs on theirnd earnings. >> we are very pleased with the early results. >> like all other banks, we face choppiness, particularly around capital markets and mn day -- and m&a activities around the world. >> investor sentiments changed for the good, both in the absolute, and also relative to us here, so we had a very strong finish of the quarter, which is now coming a little bit into april as well. >> in the macro space, where we trade fixed income, securities, currencies and credit, we had a pretty good first quarter. in the u.s. dollar we were down only 3%, so that was an outperformance. >> if i look at asia and china,
it is indeed a quite clear sign that the correlation between the recovery of the equity market we saw in the first quarter was definitely head of investor cement recovery -- investor sentiment recovery. >> we talked about a drastic increase in our dividend as securities grow, and we will discuss buybacks at a little part -- at a later point. >> we will implement and start to do the buybacks in the second quarter, but we will pace it depending on market conditions in the business outlook. guy: sergio ermotti and jes staley trying to put a positive spin on what we heard today from both institutions. out of interest, ubs is the best-performing european bank today, barclays second worst-performing bank behind ing. a reporter joins us on set to talk about this.
jes staley has certainly made progress. the question is has he made enough to keep mr. branson happy? reporter: the remarks you played on buybacks were quite telling. he had signaled that at some point, they may come, and you got on the back of that a relatively strong quarter for ,rading, relative to the peers in fixed income. not so strong in equities. barclays is very much exposed to europe. brexit has really put a lid on capital market activity, on dealmaking more broadly. it is hard to see a change in that any soon, given that we are still in brexit limbo. we've got european union parliament reelections coming up -- parliamentary elections coming up. you also saw the u.k. business
miss estimates for revenue. softer demand from the consumer reflects the outlook on uncertainty for the economy to mystically. vonnie: ubs client -- economy domestically. , what ares clients they getting right in this area? biggesthey are the here, and they saw net new money growth. there was a comment from ubs this morning they will stick with their buyback of up to one billion francs, $1 billion the and what investors were really looking for after the bank had to set aside $500 million or so for its fine in france. there were questions as to how much that potential fine could
weigh on the capital return story. having said that, you saw that wealth management clients really pause their activity. transaction income within wealth management came down significantly in the quarter. resuming normal activity will help recurring income, the wealth management is also a benefit. guy: talking of wealth management, quite coy on the issue of dws. let's relate the ubs story back to what is happening. now that commerzbank merger talks are no longer ongoing, are we putting a hold on any conversation regarding dws? elisa: potentially. both point to the fact that both of their asset management business is really neat scale. i wouldn't rule it out entirely. we could see more of those discussions in the coming weeks.
but it did seem potentially that deutsche bank was more compelled to pursue that avenue to help shore up funds to embark on a commerzbank merger. now that that's off the table, it may be that they are not as pressed to do something with their asset management business as they were a few days ago. guy: thank you very much. multitude of banking stories we have to cover here at bloomberg. from london and from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
is unveiling its strategy for ott recently, and there was some question as to what they would do with hulu. comcast is saying it is going to basically sell that part of hulu that it owns to disney. it is giving comcast a nice boost, up 316%, but also, 3.6%, butgood cash up also obviously good for disney -- up 3.6%, but obviously also good for disney. reporter: the nasdaq now fractionally lower, but also the nasdaq is slightly lower, but the chip index, which has a heavy waiting to the nasdaq, is down 2.4%. chip stocks on pay for their worst day since march. globally, the dax down about 3/10 of 1%, on pace to snap a nine day winning streak, the longest since 2015. the nikkei in japan closing up
0.5%, so investors trying to figure out what is happening around global growth and earnings. suggesting there is a risk off the, let's take a look at three-day euro against the yen. the euro considered to be a gross currency, the yen -- a growth currency, the again a haven currency. as for what is helping here in the u.s., even though we have more of a bearish backdrop, let's take a look at some of the winters that have been helping the nasdaq slip between small gains and losses. microsoft and facebook oath on very strong earnings reports. growth came ine a little bit better than investors were looking for, 26%. comcast also put up a decent quarter where they beat earnings estimates in a big way.
cnbc is reporting they are in talks to sell their 30% stake in hulu to disney. chairs had been higher ahead of that report. -- shares had been higher ahead of that report. amazon, of course, out after the bell, ahead of that. three weeks ago, the shanghai composite had its worst week since december. then we had a little rebound. this week so far, the shanghai composite on pace since its -- on pace for its worst week since october of last year, down about 4% over the last three weeks to the other global indexes. let's to pay attention to, as always. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you for that. argentina's peso is the worst performer against the u.s. dollar today, tumbling for a second day. the chances of a potential default have risen to more than
60% now. doubts continuing to rise that the president will not be able to fend off populist foes in this upcoming election. things have been looking at -- looking a little dicey. with us is damien sass our -- damian sassower. what has changed? reporter: there may be a return of the reason white argentina is in this plight. ,he way she handled her economy if we see a return to that, we are seeing default probabilities rise of that. markets are definitely getting a little skittish here. classes have some asset price to this in so late?
why did it take so long to catch up? damian: the big story here is persistent dollar strength. we have seen implied vol collapse globally across all asset classes, but also forward curve compression, especially em's.gh-volume it is creating the opportunity to hedge against a sharp dollar up move pretty inexpensively relative to where we've been. obviously this doesn't translate into the argentine peso or the turkish lira, but we are seeing a reversal of what you have seen the better part of this year. vonnie: this could be something of a vicious circle because obviously, sentiment has deteriorated quite at what point and might we see argentina default? damian: they have defaulted many
times in the last 20 years, so the market will expect them to fall back into that path. there are other serial defaulters within the sphere of emerging markets, but argentina has issued almost $100 billion of dollar debt in the past two years since they came out of the imf program. i don't think a default is necessarily locked in if kershner is elected, but certainly her disregard for the imf is clear, so probabilities would go up off the back of that. certainly over the next five years, i can see probabilities going up significantly. guy: you mentioned turkey. earlier today we saw a fairly big move for the turkish lira, but it comes against a broad move against the turkish lira. the central bank removing the hawkish bias. believecally, if you the economics, you would improve that hawkish by -- that
hawkish bias rev are then remove it. of mr. erdogan? damian: i think you are seeing the central bank trying to hang hat and be more dovish, but my goodness, they need to stop the currency from bleeding. rise, probably going to so one would have thought that leaning more towards the hawkish side would have been the more prudent thing to do to stop the stem on the slide of the currency. asr guess is as good as mine to what the central bank is this, because clearly market has not liked that. central bank credit ability in turkey is all but naught. vonnie: our thanks to damian sas sower.
♪ guy: four minutes to go until the end of regular trading in europe. in some ways, a really confusing market today. nokia getting absolutely better today. there is a macro narrative i think were focusing on. the ftse 100 is down, metal stocks are lower. the global macro backdrop doesn't feel so clever today. i think that is the overarching negative. feels more glass half-empty than glass half-full. ♪
barclays a factor, the miners are also weighing on the market. on the continent, spanish assets rising. we have an election in spain. that market has been struggling. let's take a look at the majors. the ftse 100 down .1%. the dax trading down .2%. the daxd have thought of the underperforming. it is not. there are individual names helping out the dax. we do have the banking story represented. the cac 40 down .3%. let's dig into the individual names. it is worth paying attention to what is going on with some of the single stocks. what is -- let's start with the banking sector in europe. commerzbankk and talks ending. deutsche bank trending down.
iag is the worst performing bank in europe. down 3.83%. trading was ok, but there are other elements within the bank that were not. barclays suffering from that. the agm is coming up, there is the fight with edward bramson worth paying attention to. being rescued by asian clients putting a sizable chunk of cash into the asset management division. let's move on and talk about what is happening with some of the other banks. the battle for 5g is raging. it is nokia, it is ericsson, it is one way -- it is one way -- it is huawei. nokia is taking a hit. the numbers are expected to be better. at this stage in the 5g process,
maybe that was an oversight. we have seen the merger being called up by the regulatory authorities in the u.k.. faces,f egg on a lot of particularly the guy who runs the business. i mentioned one of the businesses helping out the german market, it is bayer, the stock trading up 1.56%. approachup or granular needing to be taken. dollar the macro overlay strength story still worth paying attention to. vonnie: it is interesting you end with buyer. we will be looking to see if that holds because there is a andgement confidence vote reports are there is not confidence in management so we will see if after the roundup scandals, the ceo gets to hold onto his position. in the u.s., we just had a big story break. comcast will sell its 30% of hulu to disney.
we were anticipating it. comcast was being tightlipped about what it would do with hulu , but it is perfect for disney. disney has just announced its disney plus platform, it has a direct of consumer strategy, and who knows, given the price, it might make comcast shareholders happy and it is doing nothing to displease disney shareholders either because it is going to give disney more confidence for everything it is rolling out for its consumers. that might be that part of the puzzle square to way. we shall see. xilinx is one of the poorer performers. it has had a major runoff, more than 65% on the 5g story. xilinx will be one of the main contributors to the 5g revolution. it may be overbought and that is what is causing some of the selloffs. 3m, a soft outlook,
disappointing the street. a big track on the dow is down 11%. let's move to global macro movers for a bigger you. -- a bigger view. stronger dollar not helping turkey and argentina is having its own problems, the market taking a severe turn. the bonds are much pricier these days in argentina and as you can see, they again is a little -- the yen is a little bit of a beneficiary. guy: let's continue the conversation on these markets. we are joined by preferred wealth director of investment management joining us from zurich, switzerland. the earnings season flying at the moment. is there any signal, have you been able to pull anything out of it yet? we are always going to be get
a lot of faults when it comes to the reporting season. it will change on a daily basis as big stories develop. it is looking not to be too bad a reporting season so far. about 65 different companies coming out with figures today. there are a number of sectors we were not wildly optimistic about . we touched on european banks specifically. the intraday news stories we are hearing have not change that mentality in any shape or form. guy: stock markets of had a decent rally. off of our lows we've looked good through this year. 80% normal for markets in the develop space at the moment. does this earnings season change anything in your view as to whether or not clients will continue to put their money into equities? if you're looking at this earnings season thinking do i
need to put more money to work? what is the answer? be more: there will moves higher in the equity markets this year. we are conscious there could be some sort of catalyst that will change the mentality. when we think about specific equity stories we are always conscious of the rumor. there's a lot of positivity built into the market about the was in china agreement. that has not materialized yet. some of the geopolitical headwinds we worried about last year have some sided -- have subsided or migrated to further back in our minds. as you touched, the moves we have seen an equity markets are punchy. the problem remains what is the alternative to equity or long equities? right here, there are not many things that look attractive. the fed have paused their interest raising mentality and
it does not look like there is any central banks globally who will fill that void or step up to the plate. wealthy clients, where are they asking you to shift their money given that that drop? our clients are based in switzerland and they are keen to get money out of the swiss franc. the dollar remains an attractive proposition as far as that is concerned. they would like to move into the u.k. in sterling but have not felt any ability to do that without more clarity materializing. there is a nervousness about the euro and the eurozone but it does seem like the area is stagnating and that optimism we have 18 months ago subsided. alternatives and that sort of area, we talk about that here in the u.s. to what major wealthy clients are doing in .erms of alternative
what are they doing in -- alastair: we are looking at more structural products. when it comes to equity markets and money migrating out of that, it has been to the bond sector. that does not look like it is offering the same opportunity it might historically have done is interest rates are so low. a broader mindset and a much more ambitious outlook is certainly the way we are going. an area we are quite keen on. guy: the dollar remains attractive. let's talk through that. how much longer will it remain attractive? i appreciate that looks like the least dirty shirt. ,t has many things going for it it is not great, but everything else looks worse. if i'm thinking of making investments, i'm wondering how i hedge and whether i should. alastair: the dollar store remains attractive by default. when you're moving out of
currency you have to move into another currency. there are not many currencies holding their hands up to say buy me. when it comes to the different sectors we're looking at, the u.s. sectors -- tech sector for instance -- are offering the most returns. we have to be conscious in the fact we will move into u.s. election cycle mentality and the trump administration will undoubtedly be trying to pump up their party's attractiveness by coming out with more red tape cutting or more talk about infrastructure spending, they will want to try to ramp up the momentum. they have hitched their wagon to equity markets being a good thing for u.s. citizens and that being a part of what trump has brought to the party. guy: the dollar seems to be going up. you take a look at the bond market and what is happening. you take a look at equities, everything is going up the same time. by america seems to be a lot of
people strategy. can that keep going? our clients comfortable to be significantly overweight in the u.s.? do they worry about how they would protect themselves against that trade? alastair: it has been an incredible run. with all of the things going on same time is strange. it is, and i guess we are nervous about it but let's face it. when we look back, there's been plenty of opportunity for us to be nervous about valuations of equity markets and sectors of indices and yet we still headed higher. we are looking out for what is that turning point in that catalyst that will change. right nowthere not any one thing that is forcinthat change of menlity for the investment community vonnie: what is the next thing you ll be looking out for? you talk to us about earnings and the dollar and so on. what is the next catalyst?
how much our clients asking you about 2020? alastair: there are already asking questions about it in they are keen to know what our senses and what are outlook is. as far as the areas with which we are putting money into, they are still keen to keep more of a trickle into the u.s. area rather than the sort of flows we have seen historically. when it comes to the equy balance of our portfolios, fresh funds coming intending to be more cash oriented than it has been of the last couple of years. guy: we will leave it there. alastair mccaig joining us from firm wealth -- fern well. vonnie: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. lanka, then sri father of two suspected suicide bombers has been arrested. the man has been described as a wealthy spice merchant. he is being held on suspicion of helping his son. the attacks killed more than 350
people and were aimed at christians and foreign tourists. both be and japan will looking for a deal when they resume trade talks today in washington. the focus will be on cars and agriculture. the u.s. is pushing to reduce the trade deficit with japan. tokyo once a promise it will not be hit by u.s. caps on auto imports. filings for u.s. unemployment benefits rose by the most since 2017. 37,000 toaims were up 200,000 last week and that broke a five-week streak of declines. in therall number still range of considered a tight labor market. the fbi and the irs have raided the homes of baltimore mayor kaplan -- katharine pugh. the maryland governor larry hogan has called on the mayor to resign. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: european equity markets done for the d. what a day it has been. tick higher during the ftse 100. a lot of initial stocks in focus . a broader macro narrative worth paying attention to. you take a look at the 3m numbers and what came out of korea, there is a blast half-empty narrative worth paying attention to. it is done but if you want to figure carry out what is going on, tune in to bloomberg radio is the cable show. jonathan ferro is in new york. i will be joining in london. we are live on dab digital radio in the london area and globally on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is european close on bloomberg markets. bonds issued earlier this month and now we may see more from the kingdom itself. we spoke to the saudi finance minister today in react. >> this as a result of what we said we were going to do. we implemented significant reform, which implemented significant discipline and and obviouslyncy oil revenue and a combination of all of this resulted in revenue you have. >> some of our economists have had a chance to look through the oil revenues and those rows in a way that is not necessarily
explained by prices or production. is there another source of revenue coming through, maybe dividends? >> we have always said that deliveries we received from saudi aramco are divided in three. we have the royalty, we have the tax, and we have the dividends, regular dividends and special dividends. we received royalty tax dividends and special dividends like we did last year. >> let me follow up on the results. does that mean you're on track to beat the full-year deficit targets? -- we willn track balance our budget by 2023. >> let's talk about the debt plans you have. when is the next international issuance going to come? >> we do not specify between markets. we have one more international
trench. we are thinking about euro. as i said before, it is being planned, i cannot talk about specific times. >> third quarter or fourth quarter? is there a range? would you say earlier the better ? >> most likely it will be in the third quarter but maybe earlier. guy: the saudi finance minister speaking to bloomberg a little earlier. vonnie: time for stock of the hour. tesla is taking a leg lower after the company reported a first-quarter loss that was double what analysts were expecting. kailey leinz is here with more. it seems like tesla surprises every time so why should we be surprised? kailey: it was a big surprise. the losses 120% larger than consensus estimates.
margins were compressed. delivery sales are a problem with tesla. the biggest drop in deliveries on record and that combined with a record $922 million debt payment means it dwindled their cash the pride. i've trading figure at gtb go -- at gtv now at a three-year low, that is enclosing deposits from customers on future cars. cash is becoming a huge question. the issue -- does tesla need to raise more capital? elon musk did hint of that on the conference call. he says there is merit in a capital raise, but it cap ration not be a substitute for making the market offer more efficiently. guy: the kind of dismissed that. let's talk about the targets and forecasts. there are good for cats in terms of what this company will produce. does the market believe? kailey: investors may believe
that forecast. they are sticking to that 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles for 2019. the second quarter picture of may look better profit wise. investors do have faith in that. even beside the market moving lower today, when you look at the multiple, the earnings ratio is over 100. there is faith in the stock but the street is more skeptical. you had dan ives at wedbush cutting the shares to neutral. debacleit was the top he has seen in 20 years covering tech on the street and their guidance is too aggressive. he said "tesla is living in the twilight sound asking if demand and profitability will magically return to the tesla story." one analyst not buying it. vonnie: he said rowboat taxis and other endeavors are
distractions from the global demand was. isn't that problem number one? kailey: this was part of the discussion, the news that broke about tesla and panasonic ending their capacity expansion plans for their battery factory nevada. that raises the question does tesla think it will meet those targets? maybe the demand picture is not what we think it is. vonnie: thank you. kailey leinz and tesla is down 3.3%. coming up, it is our global battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
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crude spread. the hired goes, the more expensive crude is today. goes, the moret expensive crude is today. you can see the huge jump over all the talk of iran. the real story is the red line, it is the brent to buy spread. it moved lower because the real tightness in the market is not in brent, not in the light crude, it is in the heavy crude and that is to buy -- that is dubai. that is what has the oil market skittish because they do not know if they will make that up within the market. you have to look at the big picture and look at the red line to z what is going on in the oil market. vonnie: we did see brent approached $75 a barrel and then wti got more expensive in the spread narrowed. i'm glad you pointed that out. very good one. you will have more on that in commodities edge. us? what you have for guy: you believe in the rally we
are seeing in tech? -- once youked be look below the hood, it is not as clear. these are the closers, the daily closes. tech has been going up and up your the problem with that is volume has been going down and down and down. last year, the back end of last daily, prettyion average. this year, it has been hard to make 100. basically, you have to ask yourself whether or not the market believes in this rally. plenty of people are the heart the rally and that could be a factor -- are behind the rally and that could be a factor. if you look on a daily basis, the average volume, you clearly see the volumes have been falling. i'm not convinced this is a convincing rally and the market is not convinced either because you take a look at what is been going on, the volumes have been like. vonnie: for a moment i thought
em with douoting emin you believe. i am tempted by your chart, it is a good one. i think today i'm going to have to award the prize, not that there is any, to to alix .teel remember to watch "commodities edge" at 1:00 new york time, 6:00 london time, 1:00 hong kong. coming up on balance of power, we will be hearing from stephen lynch. he will speak with david westin. this is bloomberg. ♪
on the brief today, kevin cirilli at the white house on joe biden's head for the oval office. our reporter in paris on emmanuel macron laying out his reforms for france, and in washington, ben bain on a revamp of the volcker rule. kevin, it finally happened, what does it change? kevin: it resets the crowded democratic primary field. joe biden arguing he would be able to win back voters president trump carried in the 2016 race in portions of the states like western pennsylvania, youngstown, ohio, michigan, as well as suburban detroit. he will take a working-class message directly to their. -- directly to there. is reentrant's to the race is also a very different democratic party. he has access to the obama donor