tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 26, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
paul: welcome to daybreak australia. i am paul allen. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to asia's major market open. paul: here are the top stories we are covering. always found are facing the sanctions -- we speak exclusively to him. >> i will ignore trump, then with whom can he negotiate?
if he calls me, i may not even answer. paul: electing a new parliament in the shadow of brexit. the brexit party hosting a strong result in northeast england. trump talks trade in tokyo after a weekend of sumo and sushi but there will be no deal on this visit. startedet's get you with the breaking headlines. we are seeing the brexit party taking the vote share 38% in east england. the conservative vote share is 10% in the east of england. the european parliament e.u. wide border turnout 55 percent, talking about elections in 28 union place with the brexit party of nigel farage taking a strong lead in that part of the u.k. in england taking 38%. let's get a look at how fx markets are reacting to the results out of europe.
we have seen the euro and the moment.in ground at the we see the pound right now against the u.s. dollar a little bit of momentum, 127 is your level. this on the context of sterling a 14g against the euro for record sessions of declines last in may. 3.5% slide the pound gained last week has we saw prime minister may and her plans to quit on june 7. much, losingdoing strength of the moment, as we continue to see these election results coming out for the european parliament. we saw -- the dollar at the moment under pressure, on the back foot of concerns over the u.s.-china trade spats. now extending the weekly decline
we saw last week. u.s. futures not doing much, under a little bit of pressure after some gains friday. the dow saw its fifth week of losses. let's see how things are shaping up for the asian market. doing tootures not much, narrowly mixed after the regional benchmark lost for a third week, seeing the cost be close to raising gains for 2018. china warning traders of a huge loss if they short the yuan. shinzo abe and mr. trump hold bilateral talks in a dim time for the japanese premier. also trade data from hong kong and chinese profits on tap, for april. investors hoping for a bottom to the may selloff area $2.6 trillion in market value since they april peak we saw in asia. thanks.
let's get to first word news now. president trump will talk trade with japan's prime minister shinzo abe monday after a weekend of golf and sumo wrestling. they attended a sumo tournament with trump resenting the winner with a trophy he commissioned. it will also -- they will also meet japan's emperor. he said no deal will be signed on this trip with the deal going to be finalized after elections in july. >> we hope to address the trade and remove barriers to the united states exports and ensure fairness and reciprocity in our relationship very we are getting close. paul: the u.k. environment secretary has become the eighth two winter -- to enter the race to succeed misses may area doris johnson, his replacement and former brexit secretary also included.
on june 7, after failing three times to get her deal through parliament. fiat chrysler is poised to announce a tie up on monday. that could lead to the merger creating the third biggest automaker. bloomberg sources say this could involve an initial exchange of equity. is not involved but they would be involved at a later time. the founder and ceo of huawei technologies has struck a defiant tone, threatening his country's survival. speaking to bloomberg television, he succeeded -- he said that this will hurt huawei but said his company was taking steps to keep its edge in smart phones 5g. tom mackenzie joins us with
more. there is no sense of panic from a man thrust into the center of u.s.-china tensions. defiant, he he was is also charismatic. he was joking with us, pretty jovial. we spent two hours with him. he showed us around his offices in their sprawling headquarters in southern china. these majorout issues a day or so before we talked with trump -- who said that while he was dangerous. has imposed sanctions effectively barring exports of components, u.s. components and services, strangling this major technology provider in china and globally. we all -- ask about that and the contingency plans he put in place. we put those allegations from the u.s. and others, this was a company that was built on the
theft of intellectual property and it was a company that post is cybersecurity risk -- posed a cybersecurity risk. what he said if he would talk about wally becoming a part of the trade negotiations. -- huawei becoming a part of the trade negotiations. boughtu.s. has never pro-dex from us. even -- products from us. we may not sell to them. there is no need for negotiation. i will ignore trump. if he calls me, not answer, but he doesn't even have my number. itee his tweets and think is laughable because they are self-contradictory. tom: the critics say you got to where you are with intellectual property thrift -- property theft and government support. what is your response?
>> the u.s. has not developed a technology, so where should i see it -- from where should i steal it? it is likely they steal our technology. , trump would make so many of its to attack us. we are more advanced than them. tom: there have been callstom: by some in china for beijing to retaliate against apple. is that an action china should be looking at? happen first of all. second of all if it does, i will be the first to protest. apple is the world's leading company. if there was no overall -- apple there would be no leading -- there would be no internet. we could not see the beauty of the world. after all is my teacher. it is advancing in front of us. why should i oppose my teacher?
tom: you had bragging rights, you overtook apple as the number two smartphone maker, you saw 50%. jump and you have the goal of becoming the number one smartphone maker in the world. does it have to be shelved? bigger orbecome smaller. we are not a public company. we are not only pursuing growth or profit. it is good enough for us to just survive. tom: a reminder huawei generated revenues last year of $100 billion u.s., more than tencent and alibaba combined. as i mentioned we discussed the allegations around intellectual property theft. this is a company that in the past has been sued by the likes of motorola, t-mobile and cisco, all of those cases have been wrapped up.
the department of justice has launched and released indictments against the company, they are still fighting the cfo remaining in canada. the wallyse things cfo thinks they will event -- the huawei cfo thinks will eventually prevail. huawei is suing the u.s. government and canada. this is a significant fight for a significant company. what we learned is there are contingencies in place of building their own chips but conceded they would see the lead as 5g technology chipped at a result of this action from the u.s. paul: thank you. let's get to europe now where results are coming in from the e.u. parliamentary elections held in the shadow of brexit. early indications are that nigel party had a strong
performance while the anti-immigrant league scored a clear victory in italy. earlier the european parliament projected the christian democrats and socialists will remain the biggest groups although the combined share of seats will fall below 50% for the first time. you can see they are speaking out the time, the lead candidate for the presidency of the european commissioner. he has been urging for a legislative plan. other things besides the performance of nigel farage's party getting a strong showing in the east of england, marine le pen has done well in france and ahead of snap elections called in greece after the party of alexis tsipras performed poorly. let's get reaction with all of this. this is a professor from sydney. through, whatran
is the most standout news of the end of the evening? >> we expect brexit to do well. i think we are concerned of the far right in france and italy, anti-e.u. forces. it is not a uniform picture. where the far right did well in the national election have fallen away to something like 6%. in holland it has fallen away. in germany no advance by the far right. very much an election where national concerns dominate. there is an overarching european story here. the president is very fragmented and difficult to do business with. paul: the greens turned in a good result but look at the turnout, 51%, it is the highest in 20 years. >> citizens are agitated about things, could be the climate or
immigration. it is striking. we are used to elections being a .ow end some constituencies in the u.k. went under 10%. it is anxiety and also they want change. they don't want the same old center left and center they are willing to shop for new kinds of parties. u.k. let's focus on the y's will the brexit part performance have an impact on the next leader? have a major impact. makes boris johnson more attractive because he canceled out nigel farage but also means we will go into real instability in british politics for the next four or five months leading to a general election at the end of the year. what happened to the liberal democrats that want a
second referendum, they could be coming in second, will this give them a stronger voice? >> definitely and they are problems for jeremy corbyn. the labour party got to decide now whether they are remain or referendum or whether they will carry on sitting on the fence. dems will moplib up those remainder voters. buying forties are the top position -- vying for the top position. paul: we have theresa may leaving, nigel farage coming back to power and boris johnson likely to play leadership in the u.k. what does it mean for britain getting out of the e.u.? will it be messy? >> that is what the headlines are saying. there is no majority for a hard brexit. unless there is some sort of someion, we are in for
hiatus. they tried to get a hard brexit proposal through. it will be an opportunity for election. seeing this from the netherlands, intending to foster, ground between e.u. leaders. the e.u. as a whole, they will elect a new leadership team. who will emerge on the top and what will that mean? replace -- the takeaway is it is a difficult european parliament to get consensus on. the dream of a renaissance for europe and pushing forward with integration, i can't see it happening. we are in a holding pattern for four or five years until we get clear economic growth which could stimulate support for its interest -- for centrist parties. shery: how is that being felt
across europe now? >> it is tricky to call. the red light flashing of france and italy, i think marine le pen will be a strong challenger in the 2022 presidential election. looking at italian election results, the five star -- both 5% of thebringing up vote. it will be difficult to push on with more ambitious plans of integration. fourcan hope for three or years. shery: what does it say for world politics when europe takes the center stage including on how to deal with iran and climate change, when you have voices of stronger nationalism, far left, far left -- right groups, how will rhetoric be affected? >> we are lacking leadership in
europe. you think of the position of angela merkel or theresa may, who are the big figures that would provide a galvanizing spirit? it is tricky. macron will probably get worse post these elections. three or four years of a hiatus, no clear lead, not a fantastic investment environment. paul: university of sydney professor of politics simon, thank you for joining us and the results continue to trickle in from the european union. you can turn to your bloomberg for more on this, go to tliv to get commentary and analysis. we will look at how geopolitical tensions from the e.u. to china and the u.s. are playing out in the markets for global investors. shery: we will be live in tokyo as trump touts progress ahead of trade talks with japan's prime minister. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg.
paul: i am paul allen in sydney. shery: you are watching daybreak australia. we are seeing the latest headlines with the lead candidate to the presidency of the european commission speaking now. he is saying the socialists must be humble and is urging progressive forces to work together. this coming on the back of the european parliament elections. we are seeing the results, strong performance from the brexit party of nigel farage in east england. we have seen liberal democrats winning in london. we are seeing trickle of coming out. we saw the first casualty with greece's government.
soon asthe that vote as june. let's discuss what is happening the rest of the global markets. joining us is a portfolio manager. great to have you with us. we are not seeing that sweep landslide victory by nationalists, far right or four left. what will this do for european assets when growth has been challenged in the region given the weakness in china? we see europe has been slowing the last couple years and that is a lot of uncertainties about politics at the moment as well. says unclear or hard to what the reason might be. with theresa may's resignation on friday, and the professor, i think at the moment the european
challenge is there is no real leaders. it is hard to tell what result is. i think the best strategy is to wait. [speaking simultaneously] shery: especially when it comes with what is happening with brexit. we saw theresa may resign and nigel farage's brexit party faring well in the european elections. investors think we could see a hardliner succeed the prime minister. what are your thoughts on u.k. assets? amanda: i think there is definitely a vote -- a lot of volatility to come. what theresa may was trying to do and not able to achieve andement from her people others, whoever is taking on as the leader of u.k. is going to face the same challenge as well. unless the whole dynamic is
changing between u.k. and europe, it is hard to see there is any organic change. focus to's switch our china. we had an announcement from the u.s. commerce department saying it will impose duties on countries which undervalue their currencies. china not mentioned but was that the subtext? at the least of the u.s. has been talking to china in terms of its own currency. at the moment the trade talk is also another way of slowing down the china economy. probably not mentioned about china [indiscernible] will be targeted at one point. do you expect the you want to be part of any future trade agreement?
tell.: it is hard to i think the trade talk is the center of attention now. talk, seemse trade aroundtrump is getting the judgment call, the trade talk is going to weigh against china in terms of the trade talking. also u.s. is going to benefit from this, without actually understanding the culture and domestic dynamics in china. i think the china is not going to back down from here. think he left the wrong mistake with little room to do nothing but retaliate. shery: how much initiative does china have to increase stimulus should the trade war continue? amanda: china has already
started its own stimulus domestically to boost the economy among the trade tensions. i think while the challenge for china is to be able to see the gdp, how hard it will get hit from the trade talks, china has -- requirement ratio for the last three years. there is actually plenty of room cut tona in terms of to stimulate the economy. shery: you said president trump probably made a mistake voicing what he wanted to do against china. if we see this rivalry between china and the u.s. continue, how would that affect other asian economies and markets that depend on these economies? guess the trade talks,
those are the largest economies around the world. any result from that trade talk will have impact on the globally. australia would be impacted. australia has been slowing down the economy. economic data is showing australia is weakening. inre is one rate cut priced in june and another by the end of the year. major banks in australia have called for rate cuts at the end of 2019. personally i feel at the current low rate level having an aggressive rate cut is not going to have the same impact as when the rate was high. moment it isat the nowhere close to recession. -- number is weakening but
what happened if rba realized it has little reserve and little room to do when australia is heading to a different session. considering what you said, where do you see the aussie dollar going? we are close to lows. amanda: [indiscernible] usd is showing [indiscernible] months of the political uncertainties around australia political parties, [indiscernible] they are going to introduce a lot of certainty on policy, so [indiscernible] from this point onwards. shery: thank you so much. coming up next we are live in
shery: the brexit party is winning the most votes in the mess -- west midlands, the update showing the brexit party vote share is 38% in west midlands. this coming after a strong showing in east england as well where the brexit party has one -- won the most votes. in wales the party has won the most votes. two of four seats in wales, labour party one of four in wales. you are looking at the latest when it comes to the european commission candidates speaking.
the latest to speak with margaret in brussels. earlier she talked about the result of the party being knowficent although we do that macron is going to suffer a blow in the european parliamentary elections. that would have a victory for the national rally. you are looking at those pictures coming out of brussels the e.u.-u.k. elections results. let's get to first word news and go to other headlines. china's top financial regulator said escalating trade tensions will create volatility in global markets and hurt the world economy. the banking and insurance regulator said higher tariffs will have a limited impact on china's economy and would hurt the u.s. about as much. they said shorting the yuan
would see them suffer great losses. called 1.7 trillion the swine fever goes across the country. it could penetrate large commercial farms. 5% of the population has been clleulled. the number of infected cities increased to 42. a british man became the 10th to die in a week on mount everest. this led to an insured narrate traffic jam of climbers on the nepali side of the mountain. seasonneers say this is -- $11,000. paul: let's take a look at what to watch with markets this morning with sophie kamaruddin. after a third weekly
decline it is looking tepid in asian futures. investors are going into a week that is likely to deliver more negative news on china's economy. industrial profits for april for rawer a pulse check materials. commodities are on a drop for three months. as you can see on this chart copper futures in shanghai have hit a two-year low, pointing out increasing tensions to the june 1 deadline for the retaliatory tariffs. looking at the offshore yuan, it today gain amid warnings from china that the traders face a huge loss shorting the yuan. keeping a close look on the key psychological level. paul: president trump will talk trade with japan's prime minister on monday. this after a weekend of golf, sumo wrestling at sushi.
stephen engle is in tokyo. ands to be a lot of easing entertainment so far. when will we get down to business? that is today. over the weekend he arrived, got in a round of golf with the prime minister on saturday and then sunday he attended the summer grant sumo tournament that is all front-page news in japan. he gave out the big president's summerthe winner of the grant sumo tournament. there was a lot of talk and circumstance on his first official state visit to japan. he will be back here next month for the g20 meeting. he will have lots of opportunities to shore up his relationship with shinzo abe. the meetings will be held first empress new emperor and
at nine: 40 out the imperial a.m.e, then followed 11:00 japan time with shinzo abe there will be a joint press conference to get into the nitty-gritty of the details. that includes cars and cows. the u.s. wants more u.s. beef sold into the japanese market and they want to of course as donald trump has high profiley -- in a high-profile statement said he is concerned by the number of japanese cars flooding into the u.s. auto markets. that has exacerbated the trade surplus japan has. over the weekend as well at a business dinner saturday, he sought out mr. toyota, the leader of toyota who has expressed concern, profound regret was his terms, about donald trump's comments about toyota selling into the united
states market. the big elephant in the room. doesn't matter if you have all and niceantries pictures. it will come down to business. do we have a scheduled deadline for the negotiations? we know robert lighthizer has been here negotiating at the ministerial level with trade officials. we are hearing likely any trade deal will not materialize during this state visit. donald trump and the white house preferring to give negotiators more time. we have heard of course last week donald trump at least for 180 days will delay any decision on increasing the auto tariffs. as for as a trade deal with japan, that has also likely been put off until after the july elections in japan where we will have the upper house elections
called in july. they could dissolve the more powerful lower house and that could of course affect negotiations. the u.s. wants a clean slate to start negotiating. shery: thank you so much, our chief north asia correspondent in tokyo. billionaire founder said they will find ways to keep their lead in the smartphone and 5g arena. in an exclusive interview, the founder and ceo told us how the u.s. ban will impact china's largest tech company. the u.s. manages its own companies. it is not the international police. they can't manage the whole world. the rest of the world decides whether they should work for us based on business interests and positions.
if some companies don't want to work with us it is like a hole in the airplane. we are working to fix it what it is still flying. of the chips we have been using half are from u.s. companies and half we produce ourselves. if the u.s. imposes for the restrictions we will reduce our purchases from the u.s. and use more of our own chips. if american companies have permission from washington to sell to us, we will buy from them. haidi: what exactly have you put in place in terms of contingencies? >> we might have contingency plans for the core of the airplanes, but we might not have
a plan for the wings and we need to review the situation and fix those problems. you can come back to interview us in two or three years to see if we still exist. if we are not gone, remember to bring a flower -- if we are gone remember to bring a flower. tom: how much damage will be the in the consumer part of business, which depends on u.s. chips and software? we might miss our expected of growth target that we are still growing. being able to grow in the toughest environment, that reflects how great we are. tom: you talked about a two-year lead on your competitors, does it get eroded? definitely. if we slow down it signals the being of the airplane has lots of holes.
if we fly slowly but others fly fast they can catch us up but we will keep fixing the holes. we will fly fast again when the holes are fixed. huawei founder speaking exclusively to tom mackenzie. joining us now is bloomberg intelligence senior analyst. thank you for joining us on this holiday weekend in the u.s. ken huawei really replace u.s. components and more importantly how fast can they do it? >> thanks for having me on. is can they do it. if you look at areas of smartphone components, huawei does make our own modem as well as processor but there are a couple of issues for huawei. if you look at where they won't be supplying licenses to huawei any longer that will prevent
them from manufacturing the smartphones. 4gradiofrequency chips for and 5g, they will have a tough time replacing those and manufacturing in-house considering 90% of all of the radio chips are provided by u.s. manufacturers. it is going to be fairly tough for huawei to replace all of the u.s. components. plan if it isthe struggling to get components and place them on a is own? -- on a zone? will he have to take a flower to huawei's grave? >> it is too soon to tell. there are things huawei could do. so i think a possibility of going to other chinese partners who are not faced by -- someone
like a mediatech, or possibly someone like samsung. what we are seeing from the u.s. and what the chairman has acknowledged in his interview was what he is hoping the u.s. the entireroll global supply chain outside of china. he was speaking specifically to the japanese as well as the korean suppliers and to hope potentially possibly may be that the korean as well as the japanese suppliers will supply to them going forward. we saw the commerce department granted a 90 day relief for some u.s. companies and customers. how big of an impact will this have on people who are actually using quality equipment -- huawei the equipment after this is done with? >> for existing companies -- customers like smart phone users they will have regular up dates. it will not hurt them from an
existing customer base. rural u.s. side there are telecom suppliers that use huawei equipment in lieu of either u.s. or european equipment gear that is out there. there will be supplying it seems, but from the u.s. perspective, huawei has a small presence. it doesn't help them going forward especially with future developments. samsung pulled back the 5g foldable phone, and you think of 5g -- possibly sometime in the future. in termsgoing forward of new developments will be tough for huawei to provide. paul: all right, thank you for joining us. stay tuned for our special on
weekend. joining us to discuss is an regained diaz alvarez. ique diaz alvarez. let's talk about the downtrend we have in the chinese yuan. this chart showing us despite the fact we saw the yuan weakening against the dollar, when it came against a broader basket, this is a replica of that. really see that trend. it was recent. drove even against the basket of currencies. is it a matter of time before we hit the seven level? >> i don't think so. [indiscernible] so they are exports important but the other 80%, and that is where you saw the trade with currency not move so much, the other 80% is not important. what we are seeing is the
chinese yuan selling off in line with the rally the last couple of weeks. it is impressive because we had the fact we have this serious flareup of trade tensions between the u.s. and china, and we are still considerably -- has only sold off in line with other currencies. it tells you quite a bit about the solidity of this. the solidity or the fact that they are trying to boost it on a given the holdings? >> the solidity -- [speaking simultaneously] [laughter] matter because the market is the authority. i think that to this statement from china it is very significant. i think betting against the chinese product is winning it to guide the market. it has a poor track record and i wouldn't do that. i think at this point 690 to the
dollar we have asymmetry in that any resolution of the u.s.-china tensions which we have seen in the past, the good precedent is mexico and china where you had political statements and then we had a resolution where we ended up not far from this. i think that if it happens we will be very quickly to 6.7 and beyond. there is a clear line in the sand on seven to the dollar and it will be comfortable holding the line. chart on theave a bloomberg terminal pretty much titled just that. the line in the stand -- in the sand seeming to be 6.9. does that seem right to you and how aggressively would you expect the pboc to defend that.
aggressively if they have to. i don't expect them to use much ammunition because one thing that has changed since the last , authorities have gotten better at clamping down on not quite legal capital fight, things like over invoicing for that used to be used as a capital device have been restricted severely. i think if it came down to defending a line, i don't think they would have to spend much time. paul: i want to get your thoughts on where the british pound is going because we have results from the e.u. elections, the brexit party of nigel farage performing quite well. ascendancy for the
leadership and britain as well. where do you see the pound heading? >> it is not a great situation. the pound is below 132 for a lot of good reason. we think that below 130, it is quite significant at that scenario where a hard brexit is a real possibility. we don't think that is going to happen. we think in fact paradoxically the election of some skeptic brexiteer like boris johnson might have a positive affect and -- only nixon can go to china effect, only somebody like boris johnson can really line up the mostly protracted factions of the conservative party. again, not great but $127, i
australia's first female leader said the surprise election result came this -- came down to a matter of framing the arguments. she gave us her take on the conservative victory and what might be next to the reelected scott morrison. -- for the reelected scott morrison. > i would say the real swing point here was the frame of the election campaign became a referendum on labor, did you want a short-lived or
government, whereas normally election campaigns are referendums over whether you want to keep an incumbent government. i think the swing happened because of the way that liberals -- the liberals chose to structure their campaign. the labor policy was heavy and they needed to explain it to the australian immunity. clearly as all of the numbers come in, results of colleagues on the labor team will be thinking about this and unpacking it carefully in the months and years to come and making smart decisions on what to do next. they are a great team and iowa big believer you have got to let the -- i am a big believer you have got to let the current generation get on with it. there is a set of decisions that have to be made by the team itself. i viewed my role post-politics not looming over the shoulder of the current generation. respecting them and their talents and abilities and notwithstanding the result on
saturday night i think the federal labor team has a great deal of depth and it will come to the fore. reporter: how worried are you about the u.s. and china and the trade war? >> anybody looking at it would be worried. i don't want to over for that. i ultimately think these issues get resolved by people coming together and talking, getting out of the cycle of tit-for-tat and getting around the table and working it through. i am sure we in australia or australian businesses give -- that sort of productive path forward. this position as a nation has been to have an open economy. we have entered trade deals, stayed in the transpacific partnership even when the u.s. didn't. we want to get around the table and hammer out a trade agreement. movement in
australia politics, could we ever see julia come back? >> no. [laughter] >> had to try. >> don't want to waste any words for you. no. shery: the former australian prime minister there. u.s. securities and exchange commission is investigating whether boeing properly disclosed its grounded boeing 737 max. officials are examining whether boeing was adequate in forthcoming about material problems with the plane. they declined to comment. will give anc injection of liquidity to a bank. they took over because of what it was called credit risks. china will take custody of that business. they are also promising to monitor the liquidity of other toolsand use open market
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in sydneypaul allen where we are under one hour away from the open. shery: i'm shery ahn. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this monday, huawei's founder stands defined in the face of u.s. sanctions that threatens the company's survival appeared we speak to someone exclusively. >> i will ignore trump and then we can renegotiate. if