tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg June 19, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
are talking about a very positive market for equities. scarlet: there you have the closing bell. basically -- we are not closing at session highs. we managed to hold onto the gains after the fomc decision. we are looking at advances, the nasdaq leading the way up by 4/10 of 1%. the bigger moves is in the rate market where the two year yield and 10 year yield falling to session lows and holding around their. the two year yield at 1.74%. the 10 year at 2.03%. joe: if you look at the sector breakdown, isn't that a crazy day? the headline moves are not that high but one of the negatives on the day, financials. not joining in the party. most likely thanks to that curve. it is steepening, so i guess that should help. romaine: the dollar down today and we also saw a rally in gold. scarlet: let's dive deeper into the action right now. joe: let's talk to our market reporters. abigail: i'm thinking about the
s&p 500. you are talking about how investors are happy with the fed decision. this chart suggests they may get happier. a chart of the s&p 500. we see theseyear, areas of consolidation as the bulls took outcome of the buyers taking out above the 50 day moving average. in may, that bearish action. there was an area of congestion that went to the sellers. the buyers have stepped up in this area of congestion into today's meeting. broke to the upside yesterday. you can see less than 1% away from all-time highs. gaining momentum. the s&p 500 is confirmed for 30 six, suggesting new all-time highs are ahead for the s&p 500 this summer. emma: if you were just watching gold this afternoon, you got a clear read on what we learned from the fed. it approached a 14 month high at one point during the session as
investors said that fed would cut rates. two ways in which this benefits that the fed may be considering cutting rates suggesting that the economy is getting worse. if the times are going to get worse, investors will be looking for haven. gold will welcome them with open arms. not in isolation. gold has posted four consecutive weeks of gains as investors have batted that the fed would made the moves in may today. luke: i would like to run a little cover for jerome powell. we are questioning the remark he made which was risk sentiment and financial markets has deteriorated. looking at the s&p 500 when not tell you that. i think there is good evidence. we had yesterday's bank of america survey, essentially showing that global growth expectation as well as allocations to equities have fallen. here is what i am looking at. the bottom panel which is
what i would like you to focus on. the rolling data, a proxy for exposure. how much global hedge fund performance is moving in line with the s&p 500. basically it is not at all. this is just another sign that big money investors remain very underinvested in this rally. the upshot from this was to abigail's point earlier that this participating in this chase as you continue to trail the markets is something that could take the s&p 500 higher and potentially eclipse new records before long. scarlet: when we are just within 1% from that record high, luke and the markets team, thank you. we have earnings coming out. oracle announcing results fourth-quarter adjusted revenue, beating estimates. 11.14 billion dollars. analysts were looking for 11 -- looking for under $11 billion. fourth-quarter adjusted eps was $1.16. this also tops the highest analyst estimate as well.
cloud services and license support revenues, $6.8 billion. service revenue and hardware revenue did drop from a year ago by at least 7%. for hardware, down 11%. the stock is doing well. joe: you see investors like it, it is one of these classic workhorse enterprise software companies. doing fine. scarlet: still with us is sarah ponczek and dan chung. sara, i want to come to you. when we are looking at the performance of different sectors, we mentioned health care on top, these are your classic defensive sectors. we have seen this for a while, this posturing toward defensive names. sarah: really since the beginning of may we have seen this switch. if you look at the best performing sector since may 1, it is the likes of real estate, utilities, health care. many sayeen hearing ok, the s&p 500 is near a all-time high. that means investors must be risk on. the areas that the markets have
been leading as higher is the more defensive plays. at etf flows, i was looking through and seeing where we have seen the majority of flows for the first half of the year. when you look at net flows, it is in these defensive areas of the market,. you look at the smart and beta area, it is all quality. as much as we want to talk about this risk on feel to markets, we are clearly seeing a bond rally and within the equity market, where we see the drivers come from is in the defensive space. . it is an interesting play. romaine:romaine: one area we are still seeing risk on is. . in the software companies you saw that with oracle. with us is dan chung. when we talk about individual names and you are looking at not just some of the defensive sectors, when you look at these tech names on software names, are you seeing opportunities? dan: we are seeing great opportunities in software in particular.
transformation across industry, a repot forming of all businesses onto the new software platforms. cloud computing, big data analysis. all kinds of software companies are doing extremely well. joe: they are also extraordinarily expensive. that is one of the things when people look at these names and they agog at the evaluations that people are paying for these cloud-based revenues. why is it justified? dan: some of it is the business model. software service means instead of one big license for three years, and the software company has to find a new client, these subscription services mean they get a recurring quarterly annual fee from their clients which is likely to go on and give them more visibility for a long time. the second thing is the cloud. the cloud is enabling the cost to be rolled out faster and quicker. you are seeing growth from companies.
i guess ipo will directed. this is one of the many communication software companies, zoom video has gone public. same thing. i think there is a lot of excitement and how fast they are growing in the durability of the business model that they are building. scarlet: joe points -- makes a good point of how they are making -- how they are expensive. is it better to go for the smaller players or do you want to stick with the big cap names? analysis, oural expert analyst, we like both. we do not like oracle. laggard oracle is relative to the success that microsoft has had. clearly in the mid-cap and smaller and the innovative companies, there is a lot of opportunity not only to grow, but ultimately be acquired by a larger one.
we like playing both ends. romaine: we have still seen a lot of analysts cutting back on their earnings forecast for the second quarter and even the full-year, but we are also seeing these price forecasts for the s&p as a whole staying where they are. 2912 is like the median which is around where we are today. how do we reconcile those two things? sarah: it is an interesting phenomenon. what it seems to come down to is the idea of multiple expansion. many strategists who have come up with these top-down forecasts of where the s&p should be at a year and, what the target should be for the s&p 500, they are saying sure, maybe i see earnings come down especially in higher care. if you have easier monetary policy, lower interest rates, then that could mean that it really bodes well for a higher multiple. that means we could see a higher price target for the s&p 500, even though on the other cited
things you are seeing lower eps targets. joe: the one thing we have not talked about is trade. thereith the following, is not a lot of optimism about a deal. does the market reaction and the fact that we are at all-time highs since the dovish pivot from the fed suggest to trump's point met the fed can counteract any trade policy when it comes to the market and backup the administration, give them more breathing room? dan: i do not think the fed can fight off the effects of a nasty trade war. thatd see in the last week xi and president trump announced they would have an extended meeting. clearly, there is a lot hanging on the trade war. i do not think fed action would offset the effects of the trade war. but i know there are many sectors that are not that
exposed to the trade war. small caps is an interesting area to play in there as well as the internet. software is interesting. a lot of our leading software companies do not get much from china because they have not been able to collect their fair share of payments and royalties. they are very u.s. or european centric companies. scarlet: thank you so much of dan chung, and sarah ponczek. that does it for the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" is next. how it sets things up for july. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
world headquarters in new york, i'm romaine bostick. >> i'm taylor riggs. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. romaine: here's a snapshot of how stocks closed. u.s. stocks rallying a third day. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq all higher. the dove said free. mark: the question is "what'd you miss?" taylor: patient powell no longer be a federal reserve has indicated a readiness to/interest rates to sustain at a record -- a record expansion. the reason is uncertainty in the central banks outlook. sheryl sandberg is calling for regulation and many on capitol hill agree with her. lawmakers want hearings on the social media giant. we will hear from silicon valley and washington coming up. and apple says get the move -- moving trucks ready. it is asking suppliers to consider shifting part of their production capacity out of china.
reserve leftral rates unchanged. but it does says uncertainty has increased. jay powell addressing the central bank's latest decision last hour. --ir powell: the production projections show participants believe some cuts be appropriate in the scenario that they see is most likely. though some participants wrote down policy cuts and others did not, our deliberations made clear a number of those who wrote down a flat rate path agrees a case for accommodation has strengthened since our may meeting. joe: for more, let's bring in steph carpenter, ubs chief u.s. economist. thank you for joining us. how surprised were you by the consistency of the dovish message? seth: i was pretty surprised. i was surprised on a few points. i was taking jay powell at his word when he said inflation in the first three months was transitory so they were not taking any signal, that they had hit their target in 2018.
and if you look at the underlying rate of inflation, that they are at target now pure that seemed like a clear message. then we got data on inflation pop up in april. when you combine the data for may, you get a reasonable print. then it came back to inflation being soft which seem to very much at odds with what he said in may. he talked about uncertainties in the risks rising which there are lots of risks and uncertainty everywhere but after may, what we saw go wrong were trade war flareups, tariffs announced on mexico, increased escalation with china. the tariffs on mexico were pulled back. the negotiations with china seem to be underway. trump says he will have an si.nded meeting with for the reasons they were pointing to, we seem to have shifted back. they have an ax now toward cutting and it is surprising. he hide it -- highlighted the investment spending data. he seemed to downplay the retail
sales report, consumer spending is going to be strong and that is 70% of the u.s. economy. we were expecting them to be data-dependent. and in fact, they clearly came out with strong bias. taylor: as we talk about financial assets, breaking news. the brazilian stock market has closed at a record high, this comes on u.s. fed and all of their reforms outlook. their fed and their reform outlook. this dovishack to central bank that we are having globally. one of the questions that i found really interesting was the idea that the fed is perpetuating disinflation by not cutting today, but effectively saying do not i today because in three months, it will be cheaper. what is the risk that they are the ones that are perpetuating this disinflation because they did not acted today? seth: i think that is quite low
for a couple of reasons. first, they will have the mindset not monetary policy affects the real economy with about a three-quarter lack and inflation with another three quarters to four quarters after that. margit had gotten very much in front of this shift by the fed and had called it correctly. interest rates had come down in anticipation. whether the fed were to cut in june versus july versus september, given interest rates have come down pretty substantially already, i do not think that risk of disinflation is there. romaine: what is the fed's reaction function? low inflation is getting ingrained. evidently ingrained in the market. if it gets ingrained in the consumer, i would think that would spell trouble. seth: i think that is legitimately a concern for the fed. that was one of the reasons why when they have been on this hiking cycle, they have been going slowly. my view is that they probably went faster than they needed to, the hiking they were doing in 2017 when inflation was low
reinforced expectations. in december, we said it was clear that the fed would hike in december even though we thought they should not. i take your point completely. the question becomes how can they communicate that effectively? they are not communicating effectively when powell says nothing to see here, everything is fine. joe: the easy way to justify would be to say they are taking their cues from the market or market volatility. as we talked about earlier, the market has not been that volatile, stocks are doing fine. even this fed put idea or that they cannot let the stock market fall much is not that compelling. be that things are not that great and why not give the market a little bit of signal that they are ready to move given this? seth: i think that is the baseline view that there has been a shift in reaction function, and that you are going
to cut, it will take a while for it to filter through the u.s. economy. i think that seems possible. it is funny though that more of that does not show through their forecast, more of that does not show through their communication. i think it is a perfectly legitimate strategy, it just seems like they are not effectively communicating how they think about things. taylor: we are already counting down to july and september. that was seth carpenter, ubs chief u.s. economist. supply shift strategy. apple may be looking to move it suppliers out of china. one analyst says that may all be poker game. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
terminal users reading about blackstone cofounders stephen schwarzman who gave the university of ox or -- of oxford its largest donation since the renaissance. the 188 million dollar contribution will help pay for new humanities buildings and the creation of an institute to study the ethics of artificial intelligence. on tictoc on twitter, they are reporting on a law
that was just passed in new york allowing undocumented immigrants get a valid drivers license. the green light bill was passed by governor andrew cuomo with the help of new york's assemblywoman catalina cruz. and will impact 265,000 immigrants. a recent poll showed more than 50% of new yorkers were against the idea. wedotcom -- bloomberg.com, have a story on an australian born technologists who gained notoriety three years ago and he declared himself the inventor of bitcoin. he is suing one of the creators
of the digital currency ether for defamation as well as many others that dispute his claim and says he intends to defend himself in court. you can follow all of these stories on your terminal on bloomberg.com and tictoc on twitter. romaine: thank you. caught in the trade crosshairs, the nikkei reporting that apple is asking it suppliers to take a look at shifting
15 -- 50% to 30% of its production capacity out of china. let's bring in mark gurman, a bloomberg technology reporter in los angeles. when i saw this report, the first thing i thought was 15% to 30% does not seem like a lot from a company like this this is not a move that can be made overnight. mark: you are absolutely right. 10 yearprobably a endeavor. they basically make everything that they sell in china or around china. it is going to take a considerable amount of time.
they have to start somewhere. we did speak to two major apple suppliers that we will not name that pushback on this idea. at the same time, it would be a responsible if apple was not exploring this. i think apple is exploring this, just it may not hit the level with these bigger suppliers as of yet. peripheral be some products rather than the golden products like the iphone and ipad. joe: so far, what impact have we seen on apple from the trade tensions? mark: pretty much, nothing in terms of tangible. if you look at it in terms of this creation of somewhat of a silent boycott happening in china where people are not buying apple goods in the quantities they have bought before because of the trade war, there we are seeing the impact. in terms of flight tariffs on devices, nothing like that has actually gone into real effect as of yet. just that sense that something
could happen, that sense of people trying to not want to buy apple products because of this, that is where we're at now. that could change at the flick of a switch. taylor: do you have any indication of how elastic or sticky the supply chains are? i was speaking with john butler of bloomberg intelligence and he said it could take quarters for apple to move their entire supply chain. what is the timeline? it couldctually think take more than quarters. this could be a 5-10 year transition if this is something that they are going to do, if this is something that they will complete. the whole political situation in this country and globally could change in 2020 or 2024. this could become a moot point. who knows what the next president and administration will want to do? who knows how china will react in 10 years? if apple feels like moving its entire supply chain out of china, it is something that will benefit, then they will do it.
this company has so much cash, so much money, you can imagine a day where they buy a big chunk of land to somewhere in the united states, build a robotics facility that could make every product in a matter of seconds, the technology, the investment they are making in robots to build their devices is really under discussed. i think there is an opportunity. but it will take a really long time. romaine: thanks, mark. that is bloomberg technology's mark gurman joining us from los angeles. let's get a check of the business flash headlines. bloomberg has learned general motors wants to hire more temporary workers and trim its health care cost. remains unhappy over gm's plans to close for factories in the u.s. the event is likely to cast a pall when the two meet this summer. another big sale for airbus. american airlines has ordered a 50 over the new longest range
version of the a320 one. american is expected to use the planes to replace its aging fleet of boeing 757. bank of america is planning a hiring spree to help with the hunt for wealthy clients. the private bank is on tract to reach a 35% increase. the biggest banks are ramping up their wealth management unit. the business offers healthy profits and it does not need as much capital as it is -- as it is trading. that is your business flash update. facebook coog up, sheryl sandberg is calling for regulation. many on capitol hill agree with her. we will head to washington next and hear from congressman darren soto of the congressional blockchain caucus. this is bloomberg. ♪
crumpton with bloomberg's word news. topnterview today, former trump administration advisor poke-checks refused to answer questions related to her time in the white house. that is according to several frustrated democrats in the meeting. less than an hour into the democrats said hicks was following white house claims of immunity from answering questions. white house lawyers are preserving power to protect confidentiality. union leaders told a house
aviation subcommittee that boeing made mistakes while developing the 737 max and the biggest was not telling anybody about new flight control software. sullenberger, who landed an airliner safely on the hudson river, said -- [inaudible] killing 346 people. he said pilots should train for such emergencies in simulators, not just on computers as boeing proposes. >> we should all want pilots to experience these situations in a simulator. ipad isabout it on an not even close to sufficient. pilots must experience it physically, firsthand. >> i'm here to tell you boeing designs and engineers superb
aircraft. unfortunately in the case of the max i'll will have to agree with boeings ceo, they let the public down in a catastrophic way. its 737 max selling planes again. yesterday, boeing announced that international airlines group signed a letter of intent for 200 boeing 737 aircraft. turkish president says he believes former egyptian president mohamed morsi was killed. president erdogan said morsi flailed on the floor of a cairo courtroom for 20 minutes and no one helped him. president erdogan said turkey will do everything in its power to make sure egypt faces trial in morsi's death. the united nations human rights expert says that the saudi crown prince should be investigated in
the murder of dissident jamal khashoggi. the report says that the crown prince and other officials probably knew a criminal mission was being planned. the saudi's say they have 11 suspects in the killing. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> facebook ceeo sheryl sandberg says her company has healthy competition in social media with no need for antitrust action. talked withhe bloomberg's caroline hyde. take a listen. >> we are calling for regulation, not just saying we will deal with it reluctantly. we are working with president macron in france. we are working with people around the world on maybe a gdpr
like privacy legislation. we want to not just be at the table, but really noticing and acknowledging that companies like ours shouldn't make as many decisions as we do. new rules need to be written and we want to make that happen. caroline: do you think that realistic rules are being talked about? it seems the e.u. has the blueprint, but is the united states getting it? >> the legislative process is never linear. but here's what we know. we think gdpr is a good blueprint and we've been public about that. we are also not waiting for legislation. in the united states, there is a bill that did not pass. it said that in political elections, you should be able to see who is paying for the ad, how much they spent. that bill didn't pass, but we
built it. it was up and running for the u.s. midterms and the e.u. elections. the gdpr controls didn't pass around the world, but we made them available around the world. we are trying to usher in the next era, to work with governments, but until then we are going to keep working and try to move ahead because we know people need protection. caroline: what about the growing calls to breakup the so-called monopolies, breakup facebook, google? you've responded with an interesting case. what about china? what about the chinese competitors? how is that argument landing on capitol hill? do they see that as a real problem? >> i think people are worried about chinese companies which are not going to be broken up by their government.
but when you think about what is underlying this conversation, people are worried about the size and power of tech companies. we understand that. we are large services. we have a big impact. antitrust is fundamentally about consumer choice and benefits. one of the things we think of and most companies in our sector go through these patterns because they are relatively easy. if you look at competition, if you want to take a photo on the stage or someone wants to walk out of this room and take a photo, absolutely you can share that on instagram, but you can also share that on many other services. you can share things on snapchat. you can use whatsapp or facebook
message or. but there's also i message and we chat. ofthing we do, there's a lot consumer choice. we are committed to doing the things we need to do. you can take all your data from facebook, download it, and give it to another service. a lot of our competitors have grown because we allow that. doorse that behind closed on both sides of the aisle and around europe, people are worried about chinese companies. some of which are far bigger and have many more people and services than we do. that needs to be taken into account. joe: and that was bloomberg's caroline hyde with facebook's sheryl sandberg. now let's go to washington for a different take. while facebook may be interested
in working with the u.s. government, it is giving some politicians another reason for concern. joining us now is democratic congressman from florida darren soto. he is cochair of the congressional blockchain caucus. obviously want to talk about facebook's point. i bet a lot of people don't know there is a blockchain caucus in congress. what is your mission and why is this something you want to be part of? promotent to technology and integrity in the internet. that is what blockchain does. it is a ledger you cannot count on. -- you can count on. think of it as a way to ensure integrity in the internet. we need to be aggressive to make sure we are one of the dominant countries when it comes to governing and developing this technology. beencebook says they have
trying to work with u.s. governments and governments across the world. how many conversations about their cryptocurrency have you had with them? >> we have one set up for later this week. the facebook team works with my staff quite a bit. whether it is privacy or cybersecurity or libra, the facebook coin, they've been pretty open about it. a lot of it is, getting the legislation right has been the real slow down. romaine: congressman, we talk about the legislative side, but at some point this boils down to regulation and who is going to be right to regulate the crypto world. we've heard comments. agenciesr one of those the best mechanism to regulate
cryptocurrency? >> we have bipartisan legislation which would establish definitions as well as jurisdictions among them. these agencies should all play a role. some things are a future or commodity. we want to get it right. that is why we put forward this legislation. joe: congressman, we hear a lot from the politicians who are running for president about things like breaking up big tech, limiting their ability to engage in certain business practices. when you talk to your constituents, is this high on their minds? is this something they are thinking about, but needs like amazon and alphabet and facebook? >> i think the concern is to
make sure people have control over their data, that the internet is secure, that they can have some privacy and make sure we are not having breaches. people want to make sure when they are conducting business on the internet that those rules of the road are in place. we are working on a privacy bill. a lot of things are being determined. right now we are grappling with a lot of issues because it can affect billions if not trillions of dollars, people's privacy, and we want to encourage innovation while making sure that security is still there. >> you mentioned when working with facebook about any number of issues, in this case perhaps
cryptocurrency, that the key was to get the legislation right. i wonder if it helps that they are working with a lot of other established companies. does that help bring some credibility to the table, when you are working with them? >> certainly you have some of the older members who are a little new and sometimes scary to them. having some of the longer established companies joining some of these new tech giants will help with some of the more senior members. is, congresshe key is grappling with complex issues. it is just how to get the right balance. we want to make sure to take the right time to it.
there's a lot of education for a lot of members on capitol hill to get these things through. romaine: talk about that education. we heard from maxine waters and a lot of other members of congress who have said we don't know enough about this. we need to go beyond the rumors and speculation. it seems like the learning curve is going to be pretty steep. how do you get around that and get your arms around something where the company may have an advantage of knowing more? >> we have great staff that helps us to know just as much as them. we don't get around the hearings. we have the hearings. that is what congress is about. i applaud maxine waters.
they will be looking at this issue. we will be looking into consumer protection. we all have a role to play. some of this is commodities. some is technology. some will be futures. there are several committees. think the time has come. hopefully this year we get major legislation on cryptocurrency and on privacy. these hearings need to begin. >> we await that potential legislation. our thanks to congressman darren soto of florida. we will have more next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> time now for smart charts. i'm abigail doolittle and i'm joined by frank appel larry and thanks for joining us on this exciting fed day. stock investors and bond investors seem to like the fed's message. let's see whether you think they will continue to like it. 500, -- every time there was a pause, downside break, all the way up, and we see this again. big downside break. 2800 didn't work. now highs again. the potential negative is that this was a bullish trap, but
because of the volatility, this is better to test these highs. >> so this is similar to a chart we looked at that suggest we could see the s&p 500 go above 3000. what is your target? >> this is a bullish formation. this would give us a target of about -- >> so stock investors have something to be excited about. let's look at your 10 year yield chart. on10 year yield, bullish yields rising. this is the eight-month move, down 35%. we have to look at the last 10 years. five other times you see any month move. we saw bounces in the yield. -- there arences
much larger downtrends. just knowing that the severity of this move is done. >> it looks like some of the news we received today could be priced in. do you think if the 10 year yield holds that level of support that we see a bounce back? 235 is a key area. may be having a traditional stock rising, bond falling. let's look at a chart of outperformance that you like. health care providers. scarlet is not on the desk, but she is an etf pound. tell us what you like here. >> i'm bullish on this. it really became apparent. it got very aggressive in april. sometimes you have the rubber
will be available as a service. we believe this is a necessary step because customers one to consume technology in different ways. they want to only pay for what they consume and they want to focus on innovation. move forhis is a bold a company and a step in the direction where we see the market going. cloud, as you know it, has to move closer and closer where the data is being generated. that is the edge. the edge is the place where we live and work. we have a clear strategy for that adage. it moves that cloud computing closer to the data. it is cheaper to move the cloud to where the data is. so we have made a bold statement
last year at hp discovery. that will accelerate us to the edge. the core business of the cloud, customers are moving to cloud enabled solutions. we said many years ago the world will be hybrid and it is. we have a clear strategy that , future automation, ai and sogence, security, you can find the right mix for your enterprise. business outcomes come from the data. that is why i'm so excited about what we can show to our customers. >> as you think about this, a very fast-moving piece of this
business, is there more consolidation to come? are you a buyer of smaller companies as this progresses? ini think about innovation three forms. organic, inorganic, and partnerships. we pervert ago to the organic path -- we prefer to go to the organic path. computing,ory driven high-performance computing, and so forth. but also we have celebrated inorganic innovation by bringing in the right ip and the right talent. that is important to accelerate our strategy. with the latest announcement, that will be my 14th acquisition. that is how we think about it. >> it is interesting. $1.4 billion deal last month.
we are always like, now what? you have done a lot of acquiring of companies. is there another piece you need to add on or are you feeling pretty good about the composition you have? there,lways look out particularly in the stock space. if it makes sense from the return of investment, we have a very structured approach, and it helps us accelerate our strategy. we will consider it. >> that was the hp ceo. decisionsnounces rate following announcements by governor kuroda and mark carney. joe: and i will be looking at economic data. romaine: and, don't miss this. expected to list shares publicly tomorrow. >> that is all for "what'd you miss?" romaine: bloomberg technology is
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