tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 27, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
paul: welcome to daybreak australia. i am paul allen. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to asia's major market open. ♪ shery: the spotlight shining here in osaka today for the g20 swinging into action, trade tensions and u.s. with iran likely to loom over the proceedings. we will join you again in
the moment by the other big stories, the dow, wall street holding four days of declines on hopes of a trade breakthrough. s&p 500 for the best month since january. with8 candidates past dachshund only real surprise, dr's jumping after -- but ive going his own way, apple will be one of his own clients. look at how markets closed. stocks were higher with the s&p 500 reversing four sessions of losses. getting track for the best -- banks and real estate leading those gains, the dow down by boeing after the the faa revealed new risks related to the 737 max 8 not to mention energy shares weighing on the s&p 500 and wti falling.
u.s. futures gaining .2% as we go to the g20 in osaka. patient futures pointing to a mixed start with g20 kicking off today. it is like a be 20 with the are just the emphasis -- shinzo abe trying to deflect the threat of auto tariffs this week. the yen below 108, goldman saying it remains cheap. we are waiting on jobs data from japan. south korea will post trade numbers. also from thailand and vietnam. thanks. let's get the first word news with jessica summers. president trump want to delay the u.s. census after the supreme court rejected his plan after eight census on citizenship. the census bureau said the
question could lower the from minorities resulting in undocumented immigrants not being counted. that could mean states with large immigrant populations losing status in congress and votes from the electoral college. trump said that is ridiculous. front runner for u.k. prime minister boris johnson refusing andule out a no deal brexit facing growing resistance within the conservative party. he is being vague about the possibility of suspending parliament. the outgoing pm theresa may indicated she will vote against jonathan and his rival if they pursue a no deal divorce. iranian ambassador to the u.n. says european powers are failing to prevent his country breaching the 2015 nuclear deal. to circumventt u.s. sanctions almost ready but iran's ambassador says it may not suffice. european signatories to the accord oppose president trump's
decision to abandon it but struggled to find ways to maintain ties to iran. boeing fell the most in six weeks on reports it could take three months to fix the latest software glitch on the 737 max 8. this came to light over simulator tests. the best selling jet has been grounded since march and it has emerged pilots flying boeing aircraft have reported additional software programs -- problems on other boeing jets decides the max. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: the white house said saturday's meeting between trump and xi jinping will happen without preconditions. yvonne man his life in osaka --
is live in osaka. seems everything is on the table . what is it looking like? yvonne: things are kicking off here. as you mentioned, there is still a lot will happen before the big meeting between president trump .nd president xi we are looking ahead to president trump's meeting with the host shinzo abe, the prime minister. that will kick off in a few hours. this time japan is feeling pressure from the u.s. to fix its trade imbalance, like what china is facing. that is likely to be raised during that bilateral. but there is also a meeting he had with the chinese president, xi jinping, last night. made it to the front page of newspapers here. china daily i mentioned this morning with presidency -- with ant xi and abe
thawing of relations between these two. it is partly driven by the u.s.-china trade war. they spoke about ip protection, free trade, huawei not mentioned during this. xi to abe did invite come to japan, for a visit to see the cherry blossoms. you see a cozy, unexpected relationship between china and japan now despite decades of historical issues. that is something president trump is looking out for. what about the relationship between trump and other prime minister's? they had dinner with australia last night. you are seeing the chancellor of germany angela merkel get in the car. we are waiting for the bilaterals happening today.
president trump will meet with angela merkel in the afternoon but let's talk about meetings that already took place especially with australian prime minister. what came out? trump kicked off his working dinner last night with scott morrison, prime minister of australia. we learned they spoke about issues like iran, north korea and with trade, no doubt australia high stakes involved with what comes out of the u.s. and china trade relations. australia facing pressure from entities for a reset of relations with china. china also slowing down their imports of coal from australia which raised questions. when it came to north korea, that is one question that has raised this week even the big story out there about the missing australian student in pyongyang, who lost contact with
his family and living in pyongyang and runs tours for foreign students area not sure whether he was detained or not but the timing has been questionable given we are close to a possible third summit between trump and kim jong-un. a lot of questions whether kim jong-un is raising a political game. the missingws for student definitely big news. where you live -- what else for friday? a lot of bilaterals scheduled, aren't there? thene: sherry mentioned bilat between trump and merkel. prime minister modi off of his win, this coming at a time when targets threatening his to india as well. scrapping india's preferential
trade status and removing it from the duty-free program where india has been a key beneficiary and it retaliated with higher tariffs on the dozen or so goods. that relationship has been quite fraught. we will see if there is any ties.gic also looking ahead to the meeting with trump and the -- the russian leader as well, vladimir putin. yvonne: -- david: thank you so much and you will keep us updated, thank you. let's focus back on the very important meeting at the g20. our next guest says those expecting a u.s.-china deal may he disappointed. our -- be disappointed. this man served as the under secretary of state from 2009 22013.
great to have you with us not only to talk about china-u.s., you will be talking through the rest of the hour. let's get started with this meeting. you are not optimistic about a breakthrough. not many are. given the fundamentally different world views of the giant economies, can we expect a breakthrough not in this meeting but in the next few months? >> i don't expect one at the current one because there hasn't been as much preparation as there would need to be. the two sides have been escalating. the question is can they reach a truce or temporary decision not to continue to escalate these and another, but over the medium tom it will be difficult come up with a real breakthrough on issues like intellectual property protection, trade secrets, proper levels of support for state enterprises and a whole series of actions
these countries are taking against one another to restrict exports of certain high technology and imports, sort of a decoupling process, all of which is undermining supply chains. there is a lot to unravel. there are fundamentally different views. do they want to read an agreement and does the united states want to make it more difficult for china to become a high technology powered by holding back on these technologies? these are unanswered questions. shery: you mentioned the decoupling theory what happens when supply chains are -- decoupling. what happens when supply chains are severed? bob: i just did a blog for a magazine called "the hill." a lot of people in congress read it. these are not things you can simply turn on like a light switch on and off.
what it really means is the difference in that country stop buying or slow down the purchases of american grain, maybe they will deliver -- maybe those will continue if there is a solution here. the same with high technology. if we become deemed by other countries, not just china but others as an unreliable supplier , and we cut off high technology exports to china, other countries will say maybe americans do the same thing to us in the future and they keep -- look for other sources. this notion of breaking supply chains is looking like it is a point of leverage until you realize it could have long-term vocation that could -- implications that could affect us. not a huge amount of preparation done in advance of this meeting by officials, but
we have two accept the fact it is happening at all is a positive. even the smiling photo opportunity is better than nothing. is that going to be enough to reset expectations? it is a challenging question. better to have a smiling picture and make you happy talk to make people feel good about this meeting and maybe people would conclude, markets would conclude think patrick to get worse. there are two questions, one, how long will it last? we saw the president threatened to impose new tariffs on mexico soon after there was a feeling things work calling down. how long would that happy talk and nice smiles and the truce last? one would hope long enough to reach a deal on the other issues but the other is those big issues are still going to be there. to kick the can down the road might make people feel
comfortable in the near term but that road gets bumpier and bumpier and the can gets bigger and bigger. over a time, maybe they can reach an agreement but the challenges are still going to be there even if they can get which ia calm period hope can happen but it doesn't necessarily deal with fundamentals. it buys time but they have to use that constructively. that is a big challenge, can it is the time to make deals on the complicated issues of technology, intellectual property, investment and a range of things, not just tariffs but andr high technology issues differences of policy on a wide range of issues as well? is staying with us. we will get into those issues and challenges more coming up. still ahead, president trump going to south korea after the
shery: the big news came after hours and there was lots of it, buybacks, nike missile profits, boeing back in the hot seat and startinghief designer his own company. su keenan is here. where do you want to start? pulling out,e s&p snapping a four-day drop and on track for its best month since january. let's go in to the big movers and walgreens is front and center with better-than-expected quarterly results, also of health care stocks and banks.
it has a lot to do with this. bowing down in the regular session, news after hours, back in the hot seat for that company . we will get to that quickly. you can see the moves. this has to do with the shorts are starting to put pressure on the markets. that is something we will talk about in a bit. we will look at the after hours, and what we have is nike reporting it first profit miss in almost seven years. apple announcing johnn -- jony ive, a designer in the business, a key per year -- figure in apple leaving. with otherroblems jets from boeing and they need three months to address the max jet issues that have been identified. morgan stanley is one of the banks flying after hours. we can go to the banks after
hours, there is a chart with four different banks, deutsche bank in particular having a real surprise in terms of coming through on the stress tests. when they get the green light, they do the buyback. thanks for that. let's turn to the rising tensions in the middle east, after warning it is set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal, iran has temporarily pressed the pause button and is keeping quiet. this is last-ditch efforts to salvage the accord and tehran says they are not doing enough. let's get more with our guest, bob. ambassador, the u.s. has said iran can come to the negotiating table without preconditions, but from iran's point of view, does it see the u.s. as a trustworthy
player? and the supreme leader military leader make the that point. they say iran is not violating the agreement and it has been attested to by the international atomic energy agency. the u.s. has pulled out, and it is the culprit here in the eyes of the iranians. they are not sure they can trust the u.s. and said they don't. what they are trying to do is as you have indicated develop close ties with europeans to find a way around american financial sanctions and work of course with china and other countries that have a more favorable view towards them. the iranians are trying to maneuver and demonstrate in the leverage, theyve
don't want a war with the u.s. they want to concentrate on their economy but want to demonstrate they are capable of making trouble for the u.s. if it were to take action against them. these sort of surrogates in the middle east, the iranians have influence over and can move that influence if they decide to do it. what degree they will and where they will come up that line, avoid going over the line, that is a sort of difficult issue for in iran toand -- deal with. paul: stopped just short of enriching enough uranium to continue developing a new nuclear weapon. is that strategically wise once it develops -- bob: you are right. what iranians want to do, what
tehran wanted to do is demonstrate they could do this, they are not doing it yet. the reason they are trying to demonstrate that is they want the europeans and other countries to figure out ways of circumventing the american sanctions, financial sanctions. continuing a trade relationship with them, oil and other things. , butg right up to the line they are also going to demonstrate they can use their surrogates to undermine american influence or american allies in the middle east, but not to the point of revoking a war or strengthening ties -- provoking a war or strengthening ties. they are playing a careful diplomatic game at this point, but their economy is in bad shape. the iranian government is betting despite the high inflation they are high
shery: bank stocks rallied after the close thursday and investors were impressed with the result of the fed's stress test. let's get news from our banking reporter. the most unexpected results and the biggest surprising would be deutsche bank. reporter: european banks, deutsche bank didn't pass last year. it is a surprise because this year there were issues with the fed. operational controls they had an issue with but this year they are saying they are making progress on their controls,
making progress so let's give them a pass. one thing was credit suisse had a conditional pass and have until october 28 to show it could improve how it estimates trading losses. what does this mean in terms of the way forward? , so good.so far you don't expect all the banks theass but they did improve outs more than expected. jpmorgan came in with the group biggest capital return land, bank of america catching up. morgan stanley, what they said was impressive. they not only increased payout but they increased in a year where they did the biggest since the financial crisis. they can return money back to shareholders. what did the fed say -- reporter: they are happy with the brazilians but let's be
clear there is a debate on whether these stress tests are strong enough to counter scenarios. even though the results here were great i wouldn't say the debate is over in terms of the health of the bank. they came off a record year and now we are coming into a more tumultuous time frame. there will be talk whether these are sufficient. paul: bloomberg news, thank you for joining us with the results of the stress tests on the banks. still to come, san francisco's out the jockeying over interest rates. our exclusive interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪ i don't know why i didn't get screened a long time ago.
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so why didn't we do this earlier? life line screening. the power of prevention. call now to learn more. morning infriday sydney or the market opened 90 minutes away, futures weaker off .1%. it was a broadly positive day on u.s. equity markets. i am paul allen in sydney. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news with jessica summers. reporter: the g20 begins later friday with trade tensions and iran -- and iran looming over the discussions. trump will hold bilateral meetings first with putin and then crown prince of saudi arabia before the big one, a head-to-head with xi jinping. they will revive stalled trade
talks but washington played down expectations for a breakthrough. xi jinping is expected to present a string of conditions the u.s. would have to meet in order to diffuse the trade tensions. the wall street journal said he will insist washington a roof -- washington removed $250 billion of tariffs and the ban on huawei. president trump said he will impose additional tariffs if the talks fail to make progress. the reserve bank of india said bad loans should ease in the coming months. this is most of the stress affect revamped. the sour loan ratio could fall to 9% next march, having dropped this by the most in 15 years. the r.b.i. is freezing the alarm about looming -- raising the alarm about the shadow banking sector. india has the highest bad debt in the world.
indonesia has ratified the reelection of the president, throwing out a challenge from his defeated rival. the court ruled that the former general had failed to prove his allegation that millions of fake voters and state institutions combined to help the president win. it was not unexpected as appeal documents were printouts of local news articles. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. shery: u.s. futures higher at the moment after wall street reversed four sessions of losses feared of get more on the markets and what to watch later this morning. sophie: we are keeping an eye on rio tinto, very much to do with news that mongolia will change in 2015 agreement for the gold
mine. northern star on watch, stock downgraded to sell, but a higher price tag as the edges closer to $12 australian a share. more speculation about a potential bid for newmont superfit goldmine, saying northern is tapping mcclory capital for the deal. and the asian ship industry is watching with bated breath on the outcome of the u.s. review of new limits of exports of things like my conductors. trade groups pushing for more time for companies to revive feedback on those. shinzo abe, lots of improving ties, reuters saying they are in talks with didi for a joint venture to manage fleets. watching nissan. four fires have been reported. japan display in focus after confirming it has received commitment letters from china's harvest tech but short of the
watching nissan. full bailout target. paul: thanks. let's get more on what we should be watching as trading gets underway. adam haigh joins us. as we wrap up june, what is the lookout for the second half of the year? adam: it is where the opportunities have been in this first half to be seen as well the latter half of the year and it is in china. the key place where people see the biggest potential for earnings growth and returns, but the big caveat on any china trade is what happens and what plays out between u.s. and china in terms of the trade deal. there are places like korea and where they are looking at opportunities for dividends, taiwanese market. about -- has been about spread of the year.
a lot of the second half will depend on whether volatility really picks up and you get further escalation. yuan traders are positive outcomes for those negotiations. what are they doing? adam: that is the way the market in general is positioned across many asset classes but options traders, look at risk reversals, certainly shows optimism coming through. the real risk for the weekend open up is anyts risk that there is some type of laps takes place in negotiations is some kind of big sticking point in that could lead to a lot of the wrong side of the trade including currency traders. the policy aspect is how they
will respond over the second half of this year, a key component how that currency will perform as well. optimism in the short-term, that is where the positioning is. there is a fair amount of risk left on the table if things go south with negotiations over the week. paul: thanks for joining us, and to forget you can check out gtv library for the charts you just saw. that is gtv on the bloomberg terminal. the fed is expected to cut interest rates in july but san francisco fed president mary daly says it is too early to know if they should cut rates or by how much. >> it shows significant weakening that would call for different actions that if the data comes in and say we get headwinds and slowing. it is too early from my perspective to know whether we should use the tool at all and what magnitude we should apply. paul: still with us is our guest
host for this hour, kissinger associates vice chairman former ambassador bob. , theng comments from mine market made its mind of them a rising 50 basis points of cuts so far this year, double-barreled question their it here is the market setting itself up for disappointment. are things that bad? it that you should be guided by the numbers. if you look at the american economy alone, they would not justify a 50 basis point cut. as you know when jay powell has made statements lately, they indicate his concern over the trade issues, deteriorating trade environment and the weakening of the international economy. if those goes south or become disruptive, it could move the fed to do things other was not
to if we are only looking at the american economy. the other is this. there is some concern not just what the economy is weakening, it could be taller bull to some but the concern is the inflation rate is not reaching the 2% target that they want. lower rates might be useful to sort of boost prices to get to that number which the fed seems more comfortable with. perhaps a better strategy is to reassess whether that inflation rate is still sensible to target. bob: is it a good target and are we measuring it the right way? there are a lot of components measuring ind in the past, that may not be useful for the future. i think on both accounts it, is
it the right target, and are we measuring it -- i think a reevaluation is long overdue. shery: whether we are overestimating what monetary lessee can do. let -- policy can do. every time we talk about a slowdown, manufacturing, trade tensions, we hope the biggest part of u.s. economy consumers will be ok. this chart showing u.s. consumer confidence has been declining a little bit. what are you seeing? bob: it is declining and investor confidence, it is also troubled because of all of the policy uncertainty. the trade part of it even though trade numbers were not a huge trading company -- we are not a huge trading country like some others but the supply of other factors and potential of a big rupture with china makes some investors nervous.
you look at others weakening in europe and parts of the world, that tends to cause concern in people's minds, but it is not a sharp weakening, just a relatively modest weakening so far. things could set it on a more dramatic downward course. we should not prejudge that. what was interesting was she also talked about not reading january as a policy pivot for the fed. that was the time when we saw the fed turned really dovish after the selloff. is there or is there not a fed put? bob: the markets think there is because -- for the last 20 years it has been. the markets think there is a fed put if the stock market goes down and if we are in a trade war and it weakens growth, there
like it for that too have got your back. i don't think the fed's mandate is either of those. it is not to make the stock market better if it goes down, and it is not to protect the u.s. in the event of a trade war. the other hand if a trade war in downward movement of the market weakens growth over the medium term, that is where the fomc will have -- perhaps do it preemptively. thank you so much. you will be sticking around. kissinger associate vice chairman. taking a look at pictures of president of indonesia arriving in osaka for the g20 summit. he comes after a big celebration for himself. throwing out a challenge for the
-- we are seeing him arrive, greeting officials at osaka airport. the venue of the summit we earlier had german chancellor angela merkel arriving at an airport in osaka city, the third-largest city in japan. you are looking at pictures of intonation president -- the indonesian president arriving as they have ratified his reelection, throwing out a challenge from his rival. coming up next, the former south korean ambassador to the u.s. joins to talk about the complex relations between his nation, the u.n. and north korea. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
paul: let's get a quick check of business flash headlines. volkswagen's trucking has raised $1.8 billion in its ipo after pricing the offer at the low end of the target range. .1 and 27 euros a share which we value them at $15 billion. they targeted 33 euros. the share sale is the first major step in vw's three-year overhaul plan. retailerargest shoe filed for a hong kong ipo. international holdings has hired bank of america and morgan stanley as the responses and we are told it could raise as much as $1 billion. the brand sells adidas, nike and more and has more than 20,000 retail outlets. what goes up must come down and in the case of bitcoin it can happen in a matter of minutes.
after surging to $14,000 on wednesday, the largest digital coin name fell in a matter of minutes after a prompt -- prominent crypto currency exchange from dust talked of an outage. it was the same level from five days ago. president trump visit south korea this weekend after the g20 summit wraps in a. let's look at what is on his agenda. here is a former u.s. ambassador. also with us bob. discussion.inue the thank you for joining us. great to have you in person. let's talk about what we can expect, how much of the message president trump sends to north korea will depend on what comes out of the talks with china, given china's leverage and pull
in this. >> probably the best outcome that can come with this visit to give a kind of renewed momentum to the denuclearization talks which have been stalled for months. nobody is sure, you know, how much progress we can make. president trump can make. depends a lot on north korea as well. north korea is coming out with kind of criticism against mike pompeo and also south korean president moon. but they are facing donald trump. i don't know. it seems to me they are ready to talk, but they seem to be expecting the other side to be more flexible in the following.
shery: they want to keep talking very the just want to do it with president trump. how feasible is this? joon: they need the negotiations for sure because neither of them can afford to repeat what happened in vietnam, a noise, the failure of the talks. this time around if they are going to have a third summit, they need to have something , not just come like they did in hanoi. mark: very different from -- shery: very different from iran which seems to be very unilateral. how much of an agreement is there internationally on what needs to be done to north korea? bob: it is a good question. there has been a series of u.n. resolutions to address issues relating to the north and with
iran. i think with the negotiating element with the north is somewhat different. iran, you had countries which participated in negotiation. with north korea it is really the north wants to negotiate with the united states but south korea has a major interest in those negotiations. president moon clearly wants to have some influence on the way to conduct it and the kind of outcome as to the japanese because -- it is a smaller group of countries but it cannot just be the u.s. and -- that is the major element but china and japan and south korea obviously are important players. predicting sanctions, china is it won't work -- if the chinese decide they are going to, it could put pressure on the north. shery: the u.s. and south korea
have their own issues like defense are sharing is a flash point. will this put new challenges in the relationship? joon: even though the north korean issue is the top priority, there are the issues, sharing and trade issues. even though south korea and united states, right now, don't have bilateral pending issues, but the u.s. is having with china trade negotiations that have a great deal of implications for all of these trading countries in the region because not only south korea but others we have a lot of trade. united states and china. shery: at least with this being renegotiated, is it out of the way in terms of bilateral negotiations? they didn't totally devise
it but it was more settled. i don't think there is any lateral pending trade issue right now. if trade and china's relationship becomes the center of dealing with north korea, that won't be good for moon jae-in. bob: the u.s. and china will discuss this when president xi and president trump get together. u.s. hopes the chinese play a constructive role in putting the two countries together, north korea and the united states. south korea has a very important interest in this. south korea understandably doesn't want to be bypassed and wants to be consulted by the united states, its wager ally, about what happens and what kind of conversations take place afterwards vis-a-vis the north and the japanese want the same thing. china is important but the u.s. can't afford to ignore its allies either.
that is something the united states has to really understand fully. it is in a better position to negotiate with the north if it has the support of the chinese but also has the support of south korea and tokyo. shery: finally the u.s. special representative talked about a flexible approach towards north korea. what does exit will mean? -- flexible mean? joon: the door for talks is wide open. that means with president trump [indiscernible] it is not a matter of whether they are ready to talk. it is more a matter of whether they can reach some kind of agreement to talks. otherwise they are not going to meet, as i said. there is no more embolism in just meeting. they have to have a third summit. shery: thank you so much and
thoughts's get final or member special guest host for the hour. -- from our special guest host for the hour. one of the most important g20 sessions in the years. , yousador, i am wondering said you can't contain or disengage china. the situation being faced here unlike any other. do we need a new playbook i would work bob: we do. -- playbook? bob: we do. we can use the cold war one. china is integrated in the
global trading order. second it is not a trade kind of conversation like in the last .entury, the 1990's these are issues where you have convergence of trade, investment and security with advanced technologies, both sets of countries, with different systems, want to be preeminent or at least play a major role in the modern technologies of telecommunications, ai, supercomputing, quantum computing. if the united states wants to negotiate an agreement on ground rules, that would make the system work better. if the goal is to suppress the growth of the chinese, that will disruptive.and for our companies as well as the chinese. shery: we will keep a close eye on how these talks develop from here. thank you for joining us. kissinger associates vice chairman. plenty more still ahead on
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mark: paul: we are under an hour away from the market open in japan and australia. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. sophie: and i'm sophie kamaruddin. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this friday -- trade tensions and geopolitics dominate the g20 in osaka. leaders meet with long-standing relationships shaken up by president trump. i
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