tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 3, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT
10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. i'm guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." it is a shorter day for the u.s. volumes are like. nevertheless, we have seen the s&p hitting a fresh intraday high. but as i say, it is unlike volumes. the data dump -- it is on light volumes. the data dump continues. services ism is out, and it is light, coming through at 55.1. the survey was 56, so this is a soft number. is this evidence that we are starting to see this transfer of the weakness in the industrial sector into the services sector? it is still a relatively robust number. anything north of 50 is expansion, so that is pretty good. you've got the durable goods
number bang in line with estimates. the transport number is a little stronger than i am it's. you're getting a -- then estimates. the factory number is a little weaker than estimates, a little better. than last time around what we are getting here is maybe a bit of evidence of continued weakness in the industrial sector, and may be some transference of that into the services sector judging by the ism, which is still robust, but beginning to fade a bit. equity markets and bond markets are having a reasonably turbulent time. of bearingssmart institute is joining us. the data are still pretty good, but maybe there are crocs appearing. arestopher: i think there certainly crocs appearing, but as you say, the data is still pretty good. the data you've just gone
through is a little weak on the margins, but still in expansionary territory. what is so difficult for those of us who look at the data is to reconcile that with the signals the bond market is sending, which is much more worried about long-term growth. at least what we see currency -- what we see currently is the base case of no recession this year. guy: i want to come back to some of the other data we got today. issue that the u.s. economy is still chugging along ok, but the rest of the world is where the week this is starting to show up -- where the weakness is starting to show up? christopher: i think the fed almost always focuses on what is going on in the united states. they are first and foremost concerned with the u.s. data. what feeds through into the u.s. data is what is going on in europe, and that is not terribly encouraging. what is going on in china, while
there has been a slow down, there's been a very significant response on the part of chinese authorities. i think you can expect that to reverse itself in the months ahead, but that is the balance the fed is trying to strike. i think they are mainly focused on the u.s. data, and we are getting a big jobs number friday. i don't know how many people will be around to see yet given the long holiday weekend, but that will be an important milestone. guy: working from home may be a phrase we hear a great deal come friday. christopher, stick around. christopher smart joining us from the barings investment institute. let's broaden the conversation into central banking news over the last 24 hours. big news out of europe and the united states in so many ways. the big news in a essential terms is the imf head christine lagarde is being nominated to secede mario draghi as the head of the ecb. let's take a quick look at what she has said in the past about
central banking and monetary policy. lagarde: we strongly support the decisions that have been made, notably by the ecb in relation to the euro zone. concentrating on the positive, focusing on key issues for the people of europe, is in our view an immediate and urgent response that needs to bring together spacery policy, fiscal wherever it is available, and things that will deliver value for people. it is always better for political leaders to let the central bank governors do the job that they have to do to preserve and secure the independence. central banks have to operate on the basis of data. they have a mandate. lagarde moving
from the imf to the ecb. bloomberg's maria tadeo is in brussels covering the story for us. is it a surprise that lagarde is going to be replacing draghi? maria: some will tell you it is a surprise, but it is not entirely unexpected. the french were pushing to get a frenchwoman to the european central bank. what is interesting is her background. she's not an economist by and she is not a central banker. but european leaders here will actually tell you they have that in her and confidence she has a track record at the imf where she praised mario draghi, said that he had taken the right measures at the height of the sovereign debt crisis, and there is continuity of that draghi legacy. as one official put it to me to gay, it is -- put it to me
today, it is not about who christine lagarde is, it is what she is not. she is not a dove or a hawk. let's talk about another person moving into a senior position in brussels, ursula von der leyen. can she clearly confirmation process? lagarde looks like a lock. i'm not sure about von der leyen. brutalthere has been trading for days. you would think that european leaders would not put this to a vote unless they were 100% sure that this would clear a vote. it is an interesting name because not many people outside of germany know who this woman is. not many would know what her background is or what her tenure at the ministry looks like.
also, she did not run in the european elections. the whole point was to bring a certain level of democracy to the institutions. clearly that did not happen when she was appointed in a backdoor deal. it is also interesting to note put she was a suggestion forward. what thes amazing requirements are to get these jobs at the moment. thank you very much indeed maria tadeo joining us from brussels. what get more on this and is happening in the world of central banking. we are still joined by christopher smart, barings investment institute head. using it matters that we have the head of both the fed and the ecb now both being lawyers?
christopher: i think the law ,art doesn't matter so much as for christine lagarde, it is her political skills. the european economic problems are not that hard to fix in the main. it requires support of monetary and fiscal policy. the real challenge is getting political agreement around those elements. she has been tasked with a very difficult set of issues. she can gather people and herd cats around a prime agate -- a pragmatic path forward. the fact that she does not have a phd in economics is not relevant to the current needs that europe has right now. the let's talk about current needs europe has right now. do you think we can assume that there is going to be significant
stimulus under lagarde? we seen a big move today in the btp market. we continue to see ever lower or negative yields on the german ten-year. is that the assumption we can make? christopher: i think the assumption is that she is going with what in line others have been doing, and less of a course correction then market participants were fearing . talked to loretta mester a little earlier on about those she had a, and few things to say to us. let's listen to a little of what she had to say. fed inticization of the terms of trying to influence
monetary policy is something we are all concerned about. i have no reason to believe that the two nominees are going to make it more political. the fed works in an apolitical manner. guy: but nevertheless, the president has basically appointed two super doves here. the balance of power on the fed is getting more and more dovish. again, the market is trying to figure out how many cuts we should be pricing in. view?s your christopher: it does seem as if these nominees are clear confirmations, then the balance will shift to a more dovish point of view, but two additional votes isn't really going to change things that much. i think what we are still headed for is one cut, may be too, but it is going to be very data dependent.
mr. waller clearly has a mainstream approach. judy shelton, i think we will find out more in her public statement. she has said some interesting things about inorganic rule related to monetary policy and interest rate settings. will be questions among investors as to what she means by that. she would just be one vote among many, but clearly two appointments by president trump when jay powell's term comes up, if president trump is reelected, these people might become more influential in the second term. guy: interesting thing. let's kind of wrap this all up. does a u.s. 10 year sub 2% makes sense to you, given all that we have discussed? christopher: it really doesn't. if we look at the data right now, the data is still quite strong in the u.s.. it is slowing and weakening, but
still in expansionary mode. the consumer is strong, confidence is high. all of that would point you to a relatively good year this year and next. that leads you to believe that a lot of the weakness in the bond market may be related to the after effects of quantitative easing. but of course, as all of us have learned in this business, you need to show a certain humidity in the face of bond markets -- certain humility in the face of bond markets. you have to double check your math and your assumptions when you see the bond market consistently pricing and lower growth. guy: it is interesting. even the u.s. 30 year is now sub 2.5%, while the german one is flattening. stick around. plenty more still to talk to you about. christopher smart staying with us. let's get a first word news update. here with the details, renita young. renita: the u.s. trade deficit
rose more than expected. imports surged the most since 2015. trade with china also surged. that may reflect companies rushing shipments before president trump's latest increase in tariffs. iran has a warning for europe. if it doesn't comply with terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement by sunday, tehran increase its arrangement of your rate -- increase its enrichment of uranium. it is calling on europe to provide an economic lifeline. it could eventually give iran enough to produce a nuclear weapon. deutsche bank's ceo christian as much as $5.6 billion to restructure the firm. the potential costs could result in deutsche bank reporting a loss this year. who led ford and saves
chrysler from bankruptcy has died. first one of the celebrity ceos in the 1980's with his tv commercials and books. he was 94 years old. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm renita young. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. remember that we have a shortened trading day today ahead of the july 4 holiday tomorrow. dollar is down. s&p trading higher. we've hit fresh intraday highs today, but the real story continues to be what we are seeing in the bond market. u.s. 10 year yield declining by three bits. we are seeing this around the world. really aggressive moves. let's talk about the european space this morning.
what we are getting is an outperformance from the ftse mib. the reason, this big move in btp's. 20 bits, look at that move. a huge bid coming into the btp market not only today, but yesterday and the day before. the other thing i want to mention is the utilities continue to rise. if you take a look at their forward and current pe, they are wiping the floor with everything else. stoxx 600 utilities up by 1.5%. the bond proxies are winning out. this is bloomberg. ♪
let's talk more about those details with abigail doolittle. abigail: a little bit of a bullish tone in the u.s.. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq both higher. the s&p 500 putting in another all-time high. clearly the bulls in high come up for exist today in a row, the nasdaq the sixth day in a row -- clearly the bulls in control. up for the fifth day in a row, the nasdaq the sixth day in a row. breaking below 2% come is adjusting there could be new lows ahead as investors perhaps feel the move to woodhaven bonds. this is having an -- move towards haven bonds. that the top sector
for the s&p 500, once again defensive, real estate and utilities. these have companies that offer very high dividends. also staples. defensive sector composition on bottom. financials not doing well with yields lower. energy and materials. it is going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out. that tenure yield really breaking below 2%. guy: it is amazing. you've brought us that chart as we watched this move as it's developed in the u.s. 10 year. the 30 year below 2.5%. let's talk more about some data we are focusing on. buytrade story, china may some u.s. farm products as a gesture of goodwill. the volume is likely to be smaller than before. purchases could include soybeans, corn, and pork. the u.s. trade deficit has widened more than forecast to a five-month high as imports
surged the most since 2015, illustrating how president trump's trade policies are weighing on the economy. what you may be seeing here i there is a strong u.s. economy or maybe some frontrunning of some of the tariffs. christopher smart, bari ngs institute head, is to with us. cuts offset the trade war drag -- can fed rate cuts offset the trade war drag? christopher: i think the trade tariffs themselves obviously have a lot of slowing impact on the economy, but the real impact is on the way it changes confidence that investors have come a competence businesses have, where they invest, where they build their next factory. it is the longer-term investment cycle where i think the real damage is being done from trade friction. guy: what are you seeing in asia? if this is what the impact on
the u.s. is, what about the other part of global growth? christopher: i think it is having a real impact on china in terms of investment competence and consumer confidence. i think it has a broader sense of uncertainty across other markets in asia. you seen the data out of korea, which is very weak. data out of japan is very mixed, but still affected by a lot of these trade tensions. i think those are real headwinds. i think the real question investors have right now is what was agreed in osaka? we know where we aren't in the sense that we aren't headed towards escalating tit-for-tat tariffs, one side being put on the other. but we don't know when the negotiators are going to reconvene. we don't know what is still on the table, or whether we are going to be talking about this for another two months or six months. guy: given all of that, the bigger question is in a tight,
neat bow. are we heading for a recession in 2020? is the trade story slowing the economy sufficiently for that kind of recession? christopher: that is always the risk, and i think that is what we have seen. it is not the immediate effect of the tariffs, but the longer slow burn impact of slowed investment. we seen slower fixed investment in the u.s. that has weighed on earnings. the question is whether fed policy helps counteract that. perhaps there are some lingering aftereffects from the tax cuts that come through. we are facing stiffer headwinds going into next year than we faced this year, and that is where i think we will be keeping a sharp eye. guy: think you for spending time with us this morning. christopher smart, barings
institute head. are going on ars little bit of a peel after bonds rally. the 10-year note now could try to below core consumer price inflation. you can find that chart right now on the bloomberg, gtv . it is among a host of fantastic charts you can pull out, save, and find the analysis that goes with them. all of them available on the terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ guy: we are catching a bid on the euro. the reason for it, a tweet from the president of the united states over the last couple of minutes. china anddent saying, " europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system. we should match or continue." you can find all of trump's
tweets on your bloomberg. we are seeing a reaction in the currency markets. the euro initially spike higher. we are beginning to fade a little bit of that rally, but it is so interesting this comes the day after we see christine lagarde selected to be the next boss of the ecb, likely to be more in the lines of mario draghi, may be more definition. therefore, may be more likely -- more dovish. therefore, may be more likely to push qe. president trump has nominated two doves as well for the federal reserve. up next, we will talk about the oil story. we are about to get some data. this is bloomberg. ♪
that filtered through into the bond market. we are going to get some eia data coming through. in the meantime, remember that we are continuing to digest what came out of opec and opec+ over the last few days. brent taking a drop yesterday. today we are up by 1.5%. we have basically been going sideways after that massive drop down we saw yesterday. we were expecting a bigger draw on the eia data. that is not happening. we are actually getting a little barrels.draw, 1.09 the market was looking for more than that. the market was looking for significantly more than that, which is interesting. so there's a little bit more that maybe the market was anticipating. remember, the prior draw was also fairly significant. we were expecting that to taper
off. that hasn't happened. 1.09,got a draw of around which is actually kind of negative, you would have thought. anyway, we will get some more details. will kennedy will provide context for us. in the meantime, let's get first word news with renita young. renita: american companies hired fewer workers than expected in june. that's according to the adp research institute report. it says private payrolls increased by 102,000 after an upwardly revised 41,000 in may. the government is out with its jobs report friday. china may by some u.s. farm products as a gesture of goodwill. bloomberg has learned the volume is likely to be smaller than before. purchases could include soybeans, corn, and pork. how much will depend on the progress of the newly restarted trade talks.
in kentucky, firefighters are battling a blaze at a warehouse filled with 45,000 barrels of jim beam bourbon. two warehouse caught fire last night. one fire was extinguished, but the other has burned for hours. one official says lightning may have started the fires. the retail value of the lost bourbon could be as much as $300 million. the tanks are ready to go and the fighter jets are set to fly over. they are all part of president trump's changes to the traditional fourth of july celebration on the national mall. the president will speak from the steps of the lincoln memorial. critics fear he is turning the event into a campaign rally. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm renita young. this is bloomberg. guy: thanks very much indeed. let's get back to this oil story. we were expecting a draw of
barrels.7 million we've not got that. got roughly half of that in terms of the infantry -- in terms of the inventory data. will kennedy, bloomberg's managing editor for energy commodities, is here. any reason for this? it is a reasonably volatile number. will: it is, and it will be a disappointment to the market. it is a slight disappointment to the markets, and it indicates market remains slightly oversupplied. there's quite a lot of oil out there by historical standards. ?uy: can i make this conclusion you look at the economic data and try to figure out how fast the u.s. economy is growing. if the economy is growing less strongly, it will consume less oil.
will: that's right. guy: are there technical factors gasoline running through, etc. is it technical, or is it demand? will: it is complicated because the u.s. over the years has become a very big oil exporter. a lot of these are driven by the rate of export out of the u.s. the u.s. is basically full of oil. marginal barrels are having to be exported instead of consumed at home. you have to really draw a conclusion about how strong demand is in the u.s. i don't think we have seen any indications that oil demand has started to slow down in the u.s. markedly. there are other regions investors have been concerned about. guy: what caused the drop yesterday?
will: it often happens after opec meetings. you see people buy into expectations. there's one interpretation of the meeting, the fact that opec felt compelled to extend for nine months, which was longer than people expected, shows embattled they are in a potential slowdown in the economy. that they've already seen in some countries, like china, like india, the rate at which the european economy has started to slow. they realize that while the oil market looks pretty tight, in the next few months they've talked about how early 2020 looks quite sticky. people are worried about that admission that things aren't looking so great. guy: what is the expectation for where the oil price goes next? one of the reasons i ask this question is that the bond market
-- well, yields are coming down, bond prices are going higher. oil is a component part of that because of what happens with inflation. so it oil goes lower from here, you would theoretically surmise that bond yields would go lower as well. so where is oil going? will: i think there is an expectation that opec's actions that they have probably done enough to keep oil around the $60 mark on brent, $50 on wti. expecting that to collapse. senseually, i think the of analysts and investors during this meeting and afterwards that they haven't done anything that will drive the price markedly higher. there's no sense that this action will spark a rally, so more of the same. guy: $50 and $60.
will kennedy, thank you very much indeed. let's turn our attention to a derivative of the oil story. tesla soaring after surprising wall street with record second-quarter deliveries. the electric car company easing concerns over weighing demand that had -- overweening demand that had pressured shares. let's ring in david welsh for the latest. how good were these numbers in reality? david: they were very good. this was a record quarter for tesla. a lot of it was on the strength of the model three, which is what everybody has been waiting for. everyone was hoping this car would be a hit, that it would sell at good prices, and continue to generate interest in the u.s. and new markets. the only downside to this is that sales of the models s and x were down 25%. it feeds concern down the line here that the higher-margin
vehicles aren't selling quite as well. they are getting a little bit long in the tooth. tesla is going to need to spend money to freshen them up. those other ones that actually make more money. but there is very good model three demand, and there were a lot of concerns that there were not that anymore americans who could spend $50,000 on electric car without a big tax credit. keep in mind, those federal tax credits have been waiting. it up -- have been waning. it appears there's plenty of demand, so shares are doing great on the news. guy: the question has to be how sustainable is it. this is a heavily shorted stock. this morning we are up by 6% or so. there's clearly a squeeze going on. what is the next catalyst to keep the story on the upside, at least from a share perspective? david: one of the big concerns with model three is what do they need to do to the price of this car to keep the sales going? they are selling very expensive versions of this car at $45,000,
$50,000. you are talking about the price of a very well-equipped bmw. these are luxury priced vehicles, well above the average price of a vehicle on the market. tesla needs to get the price down, and they haven't been able to do that. musk said not too long ago that selling the original targeted 35,000 dollar model three would have bankrupted the company or done some pretty serious damage, so they've got to reduce costs so they can reduce the price and still make money on that car. right now it is early adopters, people who really want ev and who have been waiting for the model three, who are snatching this up. it is a nice car, but it is still expensive. if they want to keep demand for years in the future, you are going to have to see a lower price model. right now it is not clear that tesla can get there and still make money. dan leavy from credit suisse put
out a report this morning saying that the focus going ahead is going to be on margins. they can get their volume, but if the expensive cars aren't selling well and they start to maybe see some softness in demand for model three, where is the future profit going to come from? where's the cash flow going to from? in other words, tesla is starting to look like any other car company instead of a growth stock. they've got to make margins to justify this big valuation. guy: and that is a very different metric when you start to look at how cheaply valued some of the other global car companies are right now. what are they going to do full year? what do the numbers look like there? david: they aren't affirming their original guidance of cars sold. they are indicating that they think they are going to get there. they think they will be profitable in the second half, but not in the second quarter. that tells you they will be spending some money on new models.
the tough part with tesla is that, in addition to the market pressures we just talked about, and we haven't mentioned other ev's coming from other carmakers in the next year or two that will give them some pressure, but they are going to have to bend a lot of money developing their small suv, a pickup truck, a semitruck. they want to build plants in china and europe. that's a lot of cash going out the door and a lot of engineering expense. they are is and truly going to refresh models s and x. it is just this constant spinning, and they are not really a profit machine as it is. , gm, ford,t you made they trade for five times earnings. some of the luxury carmakers, nine or 10 times earnings. if tesla starts trading at those multiples because investors see
them as any other car company, you are going to cad evaluation, and that is a -- you are going to ca evaluation -- you are devaluation,a and that is going to be a challenge for them. guy: your numbers are spot on. david, great stuff. david welch joining us on the tesla story. kind of related to the auto story is what is happening with the trade narrative across the atlantic. the president tweeting, "china and europe playing a big currency minute elation game in order to compete with the u.s. -- currency manipulation game in order to compete with the u.s." this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's return now to the fed. global disinflation has raised concerns that the global economy will pull down inflation. one fed president spoke exclusively to francine lacqua and tom keene on fed rate cuts. >> i think we have to keep an eye on the inflation data and expectations data. right now my forecast of the most likely outcome is that inflation will move gradually back to 2%. early this year, data that was softer means it will take a bit longer to do that. right now, i still have that as my most likely outcome. however, you do have to think about the underlying trend in
inflation. , but also is cyclical some of the structural factors. things like businesses with new models of how they are competing with one another come up pricing behavior, consumer search behavior. those structural factors are probably weighing on inflation as well. francine: can you still say that the fed funds rate is below neutral? >> i think the fed funds rate is about at neutral right now, but as the economy dictates where the rate is, we need to move with it. thenxample, if it is true instead of seeing a sustainable growth scenario, we are entering a news phase where it is a weak growth scenario. that would be one reason to move our policy rate down. but i don't think i have enough evidence to suggest that things are necessarily going there. i want to see a little more evidence before we get to that point.
whatna: what --francine: have your business contacts been telling you about investment in hiring? mester: trade is definitely a concern. the trade policy uncertainty is definitely rising in terms of the concern. however, still a majority of them say we haven't changed our investment plans. we are still on track with what we plan to do. there are a few now that are saying i may be rethinking matt or trying to reassess it, but so far they've held in their. some firms have already read -- some firms have already reorganized their supply chains. mester,t was loretta cleveland fed president, speaking to tom and francine a little earlier on. let's turn our attention now to a bloomberg business, a look at
some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. we are going to kick things off with a look at the man who would have been the ceo of banco santander. he is taking the spanish bank to court. the former ubs investment group for $113g santander million. in january, the company canceled . plan to hire him as ceo santander isn't commenting on the suit. amazon will hire or than 2000 workers in the united kingdom the looping the latest tech -- in the united kingdom developing its latest technology ventures. that will raise amazon's british workforce to almost 30,000 people by the end of the year. that is your bloomberg business flash.
guy: welcome back. let's talk about the bond market. time for futures and focus. short day up there in chicago. the bond market closing at two a clock p.m. p.m. 2:00 joe, we've got the 30 year below 2.5%. does that make sense? joe: at this point, yes. the fed has totally pivoted. president trump made his nominations to the fed. europe still has negative interest rates, so seeing that , notar at or below 2% totally unexpected, especially what we saw with the december ato dollars, trading back about 80% probability of a rate
cut. it is not like this is unexpected at this level. guy: we are trading at 2016 levels on the 10 year. how much lower doesn't go. -- how much lower does it go? joe: i actually talked to our product specialist and asked that very question. he basically said our forecast has been the 10 year right 1.65%, 1.75% level. that is where we've had our target since the fed has pivoted to more of a bullish stance. we wouldn't be surprised if it got to those levels, and again, we are seeing price action in the bonds, as well as the yield action, reaffirming that at this juncture. guy: thanks for your time today. enjoy tomorrow. joe cusick joining us from the cme. let's turn our attention to the stock of the hour.
bayer shares have rallied as a federal judge in the united states says he will likely for a $180reward million lawsuit over the weedkiller round up. abigail doolittle is here to explain. abigail: interestingly, that has to do with the judge saying the way the punitive damages were awarded was too much in excess. according to one ruling, it should only be nine times the damages. the $80 million that was awarded to this one man in california was closer to 15 times, so for that reason, much of the damages could be thrown out, closer to $5 million, a small slice of what was initially given out. to backup a little bit, this company bayer has been under the weight of these lawsuits. so far they have lost three. is awarded, it is a
precedent for other cases in the future. one other case has already been reduced significantly for a school groundskeeper to roughly $79 million. bayer is looking for a $2 million award given to an elderly couple to be reduced significantly. perhaps this ruling will help bayer in that pursuit of looking for lower awards given out lawsuitsese round up that have weight so heavily on the company. stakelliott has taken a because we could see this accelerated, and we get the settlement happening a little faster. does this story make the settlement more or less likely, and at what time frame? abigail: i think this definitely gives support that elliott took this not on lawsuits being
settled, but that the amount could be a lot less. bloomberg intelligence has been estimated that the amounts given be $5 billion to $10 billion. estimating that it could be $4 billion to $6 billion. certainly it is in the right direction for bayer and elliott management. guy: thank you very much indeed. bayer stock rising today. european stock market more broadly rising. the real story is in the italian markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close. let's talk about where we are with european and u.s. markets. u.s. markets are closed tomorrow. low volumes as a result of that. let's talk about where the action is. the action is definitely in the bond market, and certain equity markets. let's talk a little bit about the italian 10 year. look at the move we are getting in the btp's. s, so adown by 20 bip massive bid at the moment. that is subsequently feeding through into the italian equity market via the banking sector. by far theb outperform her. significantly outperforming the major markets. if you're looking for another slant on all of this,