tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 4, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT
plenum -- three cut london,- 3:00 p.m. in 10:00 a.m. in austin -- in boston. stoxx 600 going nowhere in a hurry, but the bond market is interesting. we've got a german ten-year at -40 bits. that's the same as the depot rate in the euro zone. that is something worth paying attention to. remember that the entire u.s. curve is now below with the upper bound of the fed funds rate, which is worth paying attention to as well. what messages is the market sending? euro-dollar going nowhere in a hurry despite protestations from the president of the united thees that the europeans in chinese are using their currencies for competitive advantage. today absolutely flat.
on that note, let's get the bloomberg first word news update with olivia hows. olivia: at the vatican, russian president vladimir putin met with pope francis. russian officials said the meeting would focus on syria and ukraine. tomorrow the pope is due to hold inks to discuss the conflict that country. british forces have seized an oil tanker allegedly carrying oil from iran to syria as a demand from the u.s.. there is growing concern that the 2015 nuclear treaty with iran is about to collapse. president trump warned iran not to increase nuclear a richmond. iran -- nuclear enrichment. iran has said that is what it will do if europe does not offer assistance.
president trump speak from the steps of the lincoln memorial. critics say he is turning the a campaign rally. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm olivia hows. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. joining me as mark cudmore, macro strategist for bloomberg news. something of a global tour being undertaken by mr. cudmore right now. the president thinks the dollar is too expensive. is he right? expensive, looking metric, or other currencies being manipulated? no. it is expensive for a reason. is holding back the of us economy, so he's right to complain about a problem there.
he's just not right and what he's blaming. mark: is it going to change? mark: i think we are starting to see some dollar weakness seeped in. we've been in this world for the last four or five years where u.s. assets have outperformed, particularly u.s. equities. the dynamics of outperformance are now shifting, and i think they are confused to think we will get this dollar collapse, but the next major move is lower . i think it we more of a jagged move lower rather than a sudden plummet. mark: where does this take us? let's use euro-dollar as a benchmark. mark: that's a tough one. all are weakness is probably going to be felt most extensively versus the yen and some of the em currencies. em will do well even though it is going to slow down in a jagged fashion. there's a chance for some euro strength at some point. lagarde has shown herself to be
willing to try new things in terms of monetary policy. i think that's why it is weighing on the euro. she's perceived as the arched of -- as the arch dove no matter what. i can see euro-dollar again, but it is not an easy gain. i can see sterling completely ruining all those no-brainer shorts. at some point it is going to squeeze over and out. mark: is the euro zone economy orable of sustaining experiencing a stronger euro at the moment? the euro zone economy data are poor, to kind of be polite at this stage. 1.20,got anywhere near those numbers would be even worse by some significant margin. mark: where is the data not poor, i would say? mark: but it is better in the u.s. than in the euro zone --
guy: it is better in the u.s. than in the euro zone. mark: i would say the second derivative, the momentum of the downturn in europe is slowed down compared to other places. i'm a little worried in china and the u.s. but the fomc is going to rescue the economy by delivering lots of rate cuts. mark: i think you're just trying to wind me up. the fed has no power to stop the slowdown that is coming. even when they had more than 500 points of rate cuts, they cannot stop a recession coming. guy: a lot of people are talking to be about this idea that we are going through a fairly significant paradigm shift at the moment, and lagarde is part of that. it is a shift away from monetary policy, which is basically done more than it probably can do, and now we move towards a more fiscal solution to what is being
experienced here. mark: doesn't that sound quite optimistic? we talked about this for at least the last seven or eight years, that we need fiscal. guy:guy: at some point it is going to happen. you've got a change in the guard in europe that may provide a unique moment. changeng has to crack or significantly for these kinds of changes to take place. i just wonder whether or not thee's a change at the ecb, poor data experienced in germany , for example, may provide the catalyst. mark: i think that makes sense, and lagarde definitely fits into that's cory because she's a politician -- that story because she's a politician. everyone expects she will be the best person to make that case yet again, and i think that makes sense. the u.s. under trump has been more pro-fiscal stimulus rather than monetary policy. i think the eu will be forced to at some point.
i agree that the slowdown in germany in particular emphasizes that germany is the one holding this back, and they are now at a stage where they need to do fiscal stimulus. we are at a paradigm shift, but that may play out over they couple of year time span. it does not happen this month or the next three. guy: things don't change very quickly. let's talk about the market reaction to all of this. one of the things that is very pronounced at the moment is very low volatility. does that stay where it is? again, there seems to be a lot of moving parts of the moment. if i am looking at assets to benefit from some of these shifts, is fx vol one place we could see a pickup? mark: i was surprised that a number of people are thinking we get to that point where you thet buying fx vol, and second half of the year will see this bike up. i am not but -- see this spike up.
i am not entirely bought into the reasoning. points by50's basis the end of the year, other people think that the fed is either behind a curve or they shouldn't be doing anything at all. therefore, the fed is in a tough place and will not do the correct monetary policy. it is incorrect monetary policy in either direction that will stimulate fx volatility. personally, i am not sure i buy these arguments, but it is an interesting dynamic there. for your portfolio, you might want to start accumulating some options. guy: a lot of people will be sitting out friday's payroll number at home. how important is it? mark: we had loretta mester here this week saying she was watching the headline number. we are trying to be more nuanced, but the u.s. hasn't had inflation in years. there's no sign of inflation. so i think jobs are a lagging
indicator, but it is one that everyone gets excited about because it is mainstream. it's what goes in the headlines. i think the headline number will matter this week. it has proved a little more accurate of late, the adp number. you had another weak number. will the market try and push the fed towards 50? mark: i think they might try. it is certainly going to be back in play. . i think it will be a serious factor for discussion, but i do think the fed will probably try not to do 50 unless they are really forced to. guy: mark, stick around. coming up tonight, the boston pops fourth of july concert and fireworks spectacular. it starts at 8:00 p.m. boston time. here are a look at the numbers. ♪
from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." veteran investor mark mobius shiftingrest rates investors into em bonds. people holding higher rate notes are going to be doing well, but others who are trying to get in are going to have problems, which is why i believe you're going to see a movement into emerging market bonds. guy: still with us, mark cudmore, macro strategist for bloomberg news. you agree with that? mark: i completely agree with that. em bonds, em duration. like always, if you are getting a selloff in u.s. stocks, you are getting a scare in em. but i think it will be a playbook very much like 2007. to panicut, starting
about the economy in september by 50 basis points. .quities kept rallying in em markets peeked out august 2008, 10 months later, before they realized how bad it was, and then started selling off. i think it is going to be a jagged move, but as stocks start turning over in the fourth quarter this year or in the next couple of months, i think you em rallysee the continue until they realize the growth problem. currenciesis the em driving a lot of the gains. you will get the yield move as well. there might be a little more of a risk premium, but you get the fed yields lower counteracting that risk premium. guy: how much headroom in u.s.
stocks? they are kind of hitting all-time highs now, the seventh time we've seen a high this year. howdy more days are going to get like that -- how many more days are we going to get like that? mark: this could keep going a couple more weeks. in my bearish pitch, i thought the latest would be september because the tariffs will start hitting growth in businesses in august. august, september is the latest. i do think this month we see the top, but i don't have any height prediction. when it seems like we've had this great big rally, we are less than 2% higher than where we were april 30. guy: what's wrong with a lot of managers in the view of how the situation is going to unfold? president trump delivers fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts. he gets a china deal done and
the fed cuts 50 basis points plus. all of that should yield quite the rally in u.s. stocks. mark: absolutely. if we get that outcome, i am the biggest bull out there. but i think the hardest part of that trifecta is the fact that i did not think the trade deal is in trump's hands. i think the trade deal will not be signed unless china can get a visible win. i think everyone is using the mexico/canada playbook. china was playing down the trade war domestically, having negotiations with the u.s. they could have sold a peace treaty with the u.s. as a win. now they must actually see the u.s. concede or surrender to sell it as a win. xi jinping both be allowed by the politburo to sign away a deal that gives the u.s. a win. guy: particularly given that we are so close to elections as well, the nikkei advantage is massive. the closer you get to that
election, things could change. the optionality around not doing a deal must go up. mark: is a really important factor. the u.s. will get more desperate. trump will get more desperate next year. he's going to want to make a deal, and is more likely to concede. china, the closer we get to an election, the more resilient they will get. that is why they change their idea in may. the u.s. is looking vulnerable. we will tough it out. they are on a completely different time span, for their 2025 technology plan. they are talking about the opium war, the treaties then. overall, the treaties they signed 150 years ago are affecting their thinking, not an election. guy: thank you very much indeed, bloomberg's mark cudmore. , this is bloomberg. ♪
funds performer for bloomberg news. what are they doing right? reporter: they've been doing something right since last year. and made more than 12%, this year as well. confusionade war around interest rates and where it's headed, that might be helping brevan howard, as it has helped a lot of other macro hedge funds as well. although investors are not putting money back to work in metro hedge funds, we see -- in macro hedge funds, we will see how it pans out. guy: macro has struggled for a really long time. point, the stars were going to a line and things were going to work out. i guess my question is is this just serendipity, or just kind of smart? nishant: it has elements of
both. there might be kind of good luck here as well, but they have underperformed and made meager returns like 1%, 2%. many of them have lost money almost since the financial crisis. but the last two years have seen various market cycles finally make money on a consistent basis. it looks like the strategy is finally coming back in terms of making money. guy: just another side question on this, you also have seen a lot of people leave the field. nishant: yes. guy: is it easier therefore to make money? is the competitive landscape becoming less competitive? nishant: it is not really, actually. human traders have left, but they have been replaced by outflows and ctas and many other
systematic macro funds. there are a lot of participants. there is a lot of money competing for similar kind of returns. goes -- but unlike trading hundreds of securities in hundreds of markets, these veteran macro traders will put on outsized bets on a few things and if they work out, they make a killing. guy: in terms of how this fits into the wider allocation going on at the moment, will this attract money back into the sector? how many more years to these guys have to perform before the tide turns? nishant: may be a matter of a few months, actually. so far, macro strategies have not attracted money, but last year they did. but then some of the hedge funds did not perform that wealth, and
investors got out. they have continued to exit this year. i anticipate that in the next quarter, if this performance continues, i think it will be very hard for investors to fall back and not come back to macro funds. guy: thank you very much indeed. great reporting. nishant kumar joining us on what is happening with breve and howard ash with brevan howard -- happening with brevan howard. deutsche bank ceo christian sewing is putting the final touches on a restructuring plan. the overhaul is expected to include huge job cuts. anheuser-busch's asia unit will use money from its upcoming ipo to make deals in the region. 9.8c is set to raise billion dollars in hong kong later this month. the company's ceo says that will
government officials are working on the holiday to get a citizenship question on the next year's census. supreme court justices said the administration's rationale for including the question was contrived. the only house republican open to impeaching president trump is leaving the party. michigan congressman justin amash says he is disenchanted with party politics and frightened by what he sees. he is declaring his independence, saying the mueller report convinced him the president has engaged in impeachable conduct. russia will consider reducing key interest rates this month. the governor of the central bank they will limit the next six months. bmw and qualcomm are among the winners in an eu fight over the
cars of the future, scrapping wi-fi technology as the basis for how cars talk to each other. the companies argue wi-fi offers poor performance compared to future 5g networks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm olivia hows. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. let's turn to the united states. u.s. employment flashing big signals a get of the monthly jobs report tomorrow -- signals ahead of the monthly jobs report tomorrow. forcentral bank is looking signs of strain as it weighs whether or not interest rate cuts are needed. what are you expecting? >> after last month's very disappointing data, we expect some modest recovery.
expect this month to pick up and the employment rate to remain at free .6%, still a very strong labor market. guy: deal expect the fed to cut rates? guest: i think we are expecting a cut in july, perhaps by 25 basis points, purely because they want to have an insurance cut. i don't think the market ,xpectation of 50 basis points we think it is too pessimistic. it really depends on payroll, but unless it is disastrous, i don't see cutting 50 basis points. we are still facing trade tensions globally, and there are signs the global economy is slowing and inflation is not a threat. guy: u.s. 10 years are sub 2%. the entire is -- u.s. curve is trading above the upper bound of fed funds at this moment.
the market's position for a reasonably aggressive fed. janet: the market is way more pessimistic, expecting three rate cuts by the end of the year, whereas the mean expectation is that nothing has changed. if there ishat even a rate cut coming, markets probably wouldn't react too much because global bond yields have fallen quite a lot since the fed has turned quite dovish. guy: will the dollar go up? janet: it is tough to say. guy: in your scenario, if we only get 25 basis cuts this year. that is going to annoy the president. janet: i think that the dollar is at its peak already. i don't see a lot of strengthening of the dollar. we are more likely to see depreciation of the dollar instead of appreciation. i think that the markets, even though they are expecting a
number of rate cuts, the dollar index hasn't really fallen that much, but it may actually react to an actual cut. we see the high probability of dollar depreciating rather than appreciating. guy: does draghi deliver more cuts before he goes, or do you think he's going to wait for lagarde to deliver them for him? janet: it is a tough call. i think there are signs that the ecb would like to do more, but i'm not sure if a rate cut at this point would actually deliver much. rates are already in negative territory. we see that today, the german bund yield far below the deposit rate. i'm not sure if it will be that efficient in driving the economy and expectations for inflation. i do think that draghi would probably want to set policy guidance that goes beyond his term because there will be a new governor, possibly christine lagarde. i think the policy guidance will be very dovish, but i'm not sure
about a rate cut before his term. guy: these think we are going to see a shift of fiscal policy? janet: i think it would have to be, if we are talking about globally. monetary policy in japan and europe is probably reaching its capacity. there's lack of ammunition that central banks can do, rates where they are. on the fiscal side they will probably have to take the driver in driving growth. of course, it is a question of how much the government can do given the high debt level. guy: we will leave it there. janet, thank you very much for coming to see us this afternoon. "focus magazine" willng that james whelchel step down as cfo at deutsche bank. we now know that is not the case . he will not take over from von
moltke as cfo. things are clearly in a state of flux at deutsche bank. we are waiting to see the final touches to a plan putting forth -- a plan being put forth by christian sewing. how that is going to actually happen in the upper echelons of management has clearly yet to be decided, but frankfurt clearly is probably awash with rumors as to what is going to be happening. it looks now as if the focus report may be a runny us. coming up -- may be erroneous. coming up, we take you to the boston pops. matt miller will be with us, one of the hosts of the fireworks spectacular. he will have all of the details you need to know, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's get the latest now on the boston pops fireworks spectacular, which is tonight. matt miller is in boston for all of the festivities. i want to know the size and scale of what we are talking about here. walk me through the numbers behind the boston pops. matt: this is a massive undertaking. i mean, we have so many stars out here playing, from queen latifah to the texas tenors to the boston pops orchestra themselves. we have 500,000 people. in fact, the boston pops fireworks spectacular got into the guinness book of world records in 1976 for the most people to come watch a live event in the u.s.
we still typically have about 500,000 people every year that come and watch, but the best thing is so many more people watch on television. millions of people tune in every year, not just in boston. this is a global broadcast, of course. you can watch on bloomberg tv, on bloomberg.com, on tictoc on twitter. there are a number of ways to watch this. those watching from home really get the best view of the fireworks. it is an incredible, spectacular event, as it says in the name. guy: just give me a sense of who we are going to be hearing from. obviously, a huge concert taking place here. in terms of -- just walk me through the running order. matt: well, i'm not sure of the exact order of appearance, but i can tell you the biggest name we have is queen latifah. i think she did her first album in 1992. she was a rapper back then. then she got really famous when
she did the musical film "chicago." ands won a number of awards been nominated even for an oscar , so queen latifah is a huge deal. she's going to be playing here. then you have the texas tenors. they've sold a ton of albums. it's a really interesting trio because you've got a pop musician a classical musician with an opera singer. plus, we've got some buddy from "america's got talent." you've got these kind of variety shows in the u.k. as well. this woman lives just outside of boston. she's only 17 years old. she's going to be singing here tonight. and we've got the first ever usa, poet laureate of the amanda gorman. she's going to harvard university, so she will play with the boston pops. she will recite a poem she wrote especially for the fourth of july, which, by the way, is a
very important holiday for us americans. i know it can be kind of a sore spot in great britain come up with those wounds i feel have healed. guy: i think we are over it. matt: i encourage you all to watch the program as well. guy: i think we are over it. matt, i'm looking forward to it. some fantastic coverage coming up from matt and the team. a reminder, you do not want to miss this. the boston pops fireworks spectacular kicks off at 8:00 p.m. eastern time tonight. from boston, we should probably head to washington now. the u.s. justice department is edly on the verge of a decision to approve the merger between t-mobile and sprint. here with more is the executive editor of global business here at bloomberg news. this is all about the numbers three and four, isn't it? basically, if we combine these two businesses, we could go to
three main operators in the united states. the regulators aren't happy about it. it is all about how we get a force. guest: that's right -- a fourth. guest: that's right. they want a distinct fourth competitor for competitiveness in that market. guy: how are they going to do that? guest: according to our reporting, they are on the verge of reaching a deal to sell assets to dish, which already is trying to go from satellite player to mobile player. they already have a ton of airwaves. with this deal, they would acquire more and transform themselves into this clear fourth distinct player the government wants to see if they are going to push this deal through. guy: if you are sprint and t-mobile, the worry has got to be that you create too strong a competitor. presumably you want a fine balance. jacqueline: it is a fine balance. want to sell just enough to appease regulators, but not this
troy the rest of the deal, which is to get competitive and to do the 5g network, the next generation. that is ultimately what is dragging the hold, behind this moger -- the whole behind this merger. everything hinges really on the doj and the co-founder who runs dish, who is an important player in this as well. guy: does the deal still make sense? the mo was to concentrate firepower going into the 5g space. does it still makes sense if they have to spin all of this stuff to dish? jacqueline: it depends on how much doj is asking them to give away to dish. what are the components of that? that's why we are still on the cusp of getting approval because we don't know how much exactly is going to be in that basket. this could fall apart. it is not a done deal.
that is what we need to know. how much are they willing to give away in terms of airwaves and networks services to get this deal? -- to get this deal. guy: thank you. coming up president trump's latest accusation of currency manipulation has analysts honing in on the white house. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
"europe and china playing a big currency manipulation game and putting money in their system in order to compete with the u.s." head of global currency joins us now. guest: i think the fed expectations are doing just about all they can to keep the dollar from going higher, but i do think there is a serious political threat here. we've all been trained now to believe that trump's bark is worse than his bite, but i think we could see some intervention. technically possible, but i would suspect it would take highs in the dollar above what we've seen for the cycle highs recently. guy: if the fed only distillers
25 but -- only delivers 25 basis points this year, would that be enough to generate that outcome? john: no, the fed will have to deliver a lot more than 25 basis points. we could be doing qe before year-end if the data is bad enough. base case is at least 100 basis points by year end. guy: you've got 100 basis points by year end? how bad does the data have to get to generate that? that is certainly not consensus at the moment. john: it's not that far off consensus. it is sort of the middle of the probability spectrum 11 months from now, so not really particularly shocking stuff. one of the shocking things is the u.s. yield curve. we are seeing all of these cuts priced in, and get over the last couple of sessions, we've seen
the u.s. yield curve flattening. stuff.retty shocking for the fed to get ahead of the curve, they are going to have to cut a lot and very fast. just a couple of bad payroll prints and i think we are there. mobilization of jobs in the u.s. has been a key contributor to growth. it won't take much of a deterioration to see the u.s. teetering on the brink of recession again. guy: if we get a bad job print this time around tomorrow, and predictor, the best do you think the market tries to price 50 back in for the next time for the fed? are at 75-25 for that already. i think it doesn't matter what these jobs numbers show. i think the fed is ready to go 50 right away. guy: the fed is ready to go 50 right away? let's assume that happens. the market is going to want more.
if the fed delivers 50, how steep do you think the change in the rate environment is going to be? if you get 50, the expectation will be that we could get more then maybe even what you are talking about. you would need to see a significant repricing. below 2%,u.s. tens u.s. 30's below 2.5%. how much lower would you have to get? john: you would start out by pricing another 50 basis points, but we would see the market effectively pricing zero by mid-2020, and starting to look at when and where the qe is going to arrive as well. guy: what would it take you to change your mind at this point? let's say we see a really positive payroll number tomorrow. does that change your thinking? john: sure. i would be surprised if we saw that. it would have to be a really shocking number. then the fed might have to hedge bets, 25 basis points.
you have to be open to all kinds of scenarios. i suspect where the moment of his going with the economy, what the rate markets are telling us, especially the long end of the curve being absolutely crushed, i see it shaping in the direction i've outlined. that's what i'm looking for. the exhortations are still far behind the curve for what the fed will actually deliver. guy: we've seen the market repricing relatively aggressively already, yet the dollar hasn't moved much. do we have to wait for the first rate cut for the dollar to move? john: that's a great question. it's a big question. if you look back at history, we see when the fed starts a rate cutting cycle, you tend to see a bit of dollar strength because usually, that coincides with asset markets in significant pain. you have a shortage of dollar funding around the world that keeps the dollar bid even as the fed is cutting rates rapidly. i suspect it might be a little
of the fed staying high here. tweeter in chief that certainly does not want a stronger dollar. we perhaps very soon will have seen the secular high in the dollar. we are looking for some better confirmation of momentum to build for a weaker dollar story from here. guy: ethics volatility is very cheap -- ethics volatility is fx volatility is very cheap right now. would you recommend that people buy it? john: this turnaround could take quite some time. there are reasons to believe that there could be some aggravated dollar squeezes to the upside, given funding issues before the fed eventually gallops ahead and brings in the cavalry of easing to sufficiently weaken the dollar, so yes. but i would say we have to look
at some rather long-term stuff here to incorporate those risks, and i don't know they when. i'm just looking at the eventuality. guy: does the ecb have the firepower to compete? john: not really. i don't think they do. we are at -40 basis points. sure, they can go lower. technically they can go anywhere. there's all sorts of ways to deflate physical currency, et cetera. iso what would be a positive if they are forced to go straight into fiscal stimulus. i think that stabilizes rates a little bit and starts to bring money back home into europe. that's what i would look for, the fiscal components. the frustrating thing is the cumbersome political framework in europe makes that a difficult process. they are going to have to go there rather quickly or go into very deep negative rates. fiscal policyink
would be strong enough to offset the effects of a strong euro? the euro zone economy, particularly germany, is very exposed to the global story. fx is a big part of that. john: but loose fiscal is a currency positive, so it is a reflexive thing. the u.s. has had its loose fiscal moment, and europe never has. so relatively loose monetary but tightening fiscal to me is a currency positive. guy: but how damaging would that be for a euros and economy? to have a stronger euro? offset in, that is part with the stimulus. so there is maybe some balance there, right? guy: we will see. john: but the euro zone stands to sever trim like, yeah -- to suffer tremendously, yeah. guy: thank you for joining us. strategyy, head of fx
from saxo bank. states, looking forward to celebrating the boston pops spectacular a little layer on. no fireworks here. the ftse very flat. we are seeing some of the banks in italy rise. we've had this very aggressive repricing of the btv market this week. so theay was 20 bps, banks benefit from that. that reflected into the italian equity market, which today is trading up circa 1%. coming up next, we count you down to the european close and continue our market coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪
european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." stoxx 600 going nowhere. light. incredibly equity markets really just on hold until tomorrow's payroll number and the return of the united states. all of the action this week in so many ways has been in the bond markets. we continue to see that action today with the german ten-year, -40 basis points. that means it is basically at or below the ecb depot rate. that is an incredible development, and may be an indicator as to the direction of travel we are now going to find ourselves with. euro-dollar reasonably quiet as well. with the u.s. outcome a we are seeing a reasonably quiet period. i wonder whether the quietness is also caused by tomorrow's payroll. everybody waiting to see what that number is ultimately going to be, and whether it changes direction in
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