jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls growth bouncing back. the jobs report easing some concerns. shaking up fed expectations, investors paring back rate cut bets, sending treasury yields higher after a record week. we begin with the big issue, a solid job report clouding the fed's next move. >> looks like rate cuts are off the table. >> hard for them to say, we are still going to cut. >> when i look at these numbers

i keep going, why can't we wait? >> maybe the trade war is not weighing on the outlook as much as we feared. >> i think you will have to reprice to a certain degree less than three cuts. >> the fed is in preemptive mode. >> does the fed get behind or in front of the eight ball? >> it comes down to the discussion, do they want to make insurance cuts? what are we ensuring ourselves against? jonathan: to discuss, we have peter tchir, iain stealey, and noelle corum of invesco. it is the number one question following the payrolls report. what does the jobs number on july 5 mean for the fed meeting on july 31? noelle: no doubt, the payrolls number was strong across the board but we don't think it means much. definitely reduces the likelihood of 50 bps cut, priced in going into payrolls. in terms of the fed,

communication will be key. they will either have to deliver a cut with markets that are doing well, but powell seemed to write that off in the q&a section of the june meeting. or they will have to say they are not cutting but they are credible. also at the beginning of the year, they were pointing to inflation, lackluster inflation, and we think this is a regime shift for the fed and they will continue to focus on inflation. the market has been challenging them on that. they started pricing in cuts way before trade tensions were even a discussion, pricing them in in march. that is because inflation has been falling year to date. jonathan: iain stealey, three -- rate cut expectations are coming back a little bit after the payrolls report. to what degree do you think it should shape the fed's next move? iain: a don't think it will change july. 50 bps is off the table. i think it was off the table

earlier this week post the g20. the fed is being clear, they think the economy is slowing. q2 data looks like that is the case. they are hanging themselves on the inflation line. inflation is not where they would like it to be, so they have talked doing insurance cuts. i think what it means for the fed and what the market is doing today, which is correct, is looking out and saying, are we in an environment where three cuts is necessary for the remainder of the year? that will be the big question. now you are about 50-50 for that third cut. that seems reasonable. jonathan: it was never about the move at the end of the month but after the end of july. chairman powell has already announced an ounce of protection is worth a pound of cure. some people thought it would be 50. after today, a lot of doubt about whether we get a 50 basis point cut. peter, 25 basis points in july, still on the table for so many people. what happens through the rest of the year, and the idea that we get 100 basis points between now and 12 months?

peter: think we are supposed to wait and see. treasury yields are to load. low.o there is a realistic chance we make progress on trade, and then all bets are off. what if europe starts to get stimulus around? people have been far too negative. they have been trying to tell us to expect one, maybe none. the market was screaming for two. we will not get that. the market will have to start pricing in fewer rate cuts and a steeper curve. jonathan: noelle, the back half of last year we were having a discussion about whether we would consider a return to trend growth and confuse that with something more sinister. do you think that is what is difficult about this environment right now, drawing a distinction about whether the u.s. economy is coming back to trend or going somewhere much lower? noelle: we don't see any evidence that it is going somewhere much lower. of course trade tensions and trade uncertainty can impact that. at the end of the day, we think

the fed has proven this year that they are more focused on inflation than growth. even if we get a modest growth scenario, we can also see a fed that is dovish, leaning on a dovish side. they proved that in their june meeting. trade was barely mentioned. the uncertainties were definitely mentioned but barely. the commentary around growth was rather upbeat, but they mentioned the uncertainties, and then lackluster inflation is a concern. we think that is where the fed will hone in on this year. that's why we think three cuts priced into the market is reasonable, especially if inflation expectations remain low. jonathan: to pick up on the point of inflation expectations, the regional fed presidents are worried about the trading day data, the downside surprises, relative to their objective of getting close to 2%.

beyond the outlook, they are uncomfortable with the outlook as well. when you look at the payrolls report yesterday, an upside surprise. but can you stand back from this report and say, this offers me comfort about the outlook and the risks around that? the answer to that has to be no. iain: i think it offers you some comfort the u.s. economy is not rolling over dramatically and going into near-term recession. from the fed's perspective, they've been looking at the inflation into spending a lot of time focusing on it. if you look at the five-year inflation swap forward, it has come down dramatically the last few years, well below where they would like it to be. you have this issue where if they keep on tightening policy when you get to that upper bound, you will always be below that bound or at the upper bound, never above it. so the average over a five-year period is likely to be lower. then it builds up. that is what they are focusing on, that average inflation discussion which is getting more traction.

should they allow it to overshoot a little bit in the good times? it feels like that is where we are going, and for that reason, they don't need to worry about doing a cut at the moment. inflation is not there. peter: all this talk about inflation expectations is wrong. if you look at inflation expectations, particularly the consumer one, they just chart the price of oil. for all this, we talk sophisticated, if you look long-term charts, the price of oil, consumer expectations are one in the same chart. i think we are misreading a lot of that. there is a growing concern, what the fed is looking at in terms of inflation, that is not what real people are experiencing. it is almost like they have become too academic at what they are looking at. i think they need to take a step back and figure out what they really want, what they really need. maybe we still get the cuts, but maybe they pause a little bit. jonathan: we have an assessment of what the fed should do in the coming months. we talked about economic analysis.

let's talk about the bond market. you have been waiting for a backup in yields at jpmorgan. would you be a buyer of what you are seeing at the front end this morning post payrolls, 10 basis points, after an upside surprise? iain: i think it is definitely starting to look more interesting. maybe when the dust settles next week, you'll see it go higher in the near-term. i feel that we are in a global downward trajectory. i'm sure we will talk about europe and what is going on there this week later. i think that will force people into the u.s. bond market. people looking at these yields compared to the rest of the world, and they will find them attractive. the bottom line is the fed is not tightening policy anytime soon with the current framework. it is actually a good time to invest in bonds. jonathan: i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the bond market, that

this rally is still getting going. what do you think? noelle: we think it is definitely not just the beginning but there is some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines, the higher-quality, more liquid asset classes. ig, higher-quality em. all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. peter: i prefer credit, i think. we could see yields back up. we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. but we are starting to see, the companies that have performed with the debt diet, stock prices

are starting to respond well. i think that is what you will see. healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their carry. you will be a little protected from interest-rate volatility. jonathan: a little bit more comfortable about the bbb space? peter: i have liked it all year. i don't think we are going to see this wave of downgrade. i don't think we are headed toward economic recession. high yield i'm a little more cautious on. leveraged loans have their own unique characteristics. as a whole, corporate credit investment rate is fine. i think you have a better risk reward than rates. jonathan: i want to talk about duration risk. a question about century bonds and emerging markets. we could have a whole show on that. the amount of duration risk some are taking right now, overextending themselves? iain: the signals we are looking at, we are seeing some overbought conditions. the biggest fear i would have from a bondholders standpoint,

if you think about the investors in bonds over the last few years, it's been lacking. everybody has been thinking about monetary tightening. people say you don't want to own fixed income, it doesn't make sense. but as we get to the end of the cycle, you know the one part of the market that diversifies is bonds. so people are looking at the ten-year treasury, 2%, that is not bad protection, especially when you compare to europe or japan, where you pay for the privilege. i still think it is an area where you want to buy duration. overall, maybe in the short term there is some over buying but i think there is under allocation to bonds globally. jonathan: iain stealey is sticking around with us along with peter tchir and noelle corum. coming up, the auction block. that conversation is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪

♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." i want to head to the auction block, we begin in europe. a massive week for the european bond market, where record low borrowing costs are luring companies from across the atlantic. medtronics, ibm, and altria selling 44 billion euros of notes in the first half of the year, making up a quarter of a -- of euro corporate rate hike issuance. commerzbank pulled in $11 billion in bids for its debut sale of coco bonds. a 7% coupon, turned out to be europe's most successful sale of an additional tier one note in 2019. finally, germany selling more than 3 billion euros of five-year debt at -0.66%.

the sale oversubscribed by 1.5 times. a pervasive fear of missing out on even the slightest hint of yield is creating a buying frenzy that has swept across the continent. neil shearing saying central banks will have to act to stop the rally. yields. collapse in bond markets are telling you we are worried about growth, the prospective of deflation, and we think central banks will have to act. that is what is behind the drop in yields. we are getting to the stage where if yields fall further, there will be more problems than actually helps. jonathan: still with us are peter tchir, iain stealey, noelle corum. we are betting on stimulus, and we are also betting that it will not work. yields on core government bonds keep heading in the same direction. noelle: still a lot of uncertainty around the details

and how they will take these bonds down, what they will dip into. that is one piece of it. on the other side, we have not seen stability that we need in growth yet either. the domestic side has held in quite a bit. of course, trade, trade uncertainty will still weigh on the european economy. that is a big part of it. jonathan: the data in europe has been soft for at least 12 months, maybe more so. what has been striking about this week, the bund market always makes the headlines, but the big moves are coming from the italian market. it's not just the core rallying, it is the whole complex. which area of european fixed income are you participating in that rally right now? which area of european fixed income do you want to be present? iain: we have been big buyers of peripheral bonds outside of italy. we think the economic data in portugal, spain has not been too bad.

the overwhelming lure of yields in those markets have been supportive. italy had its own issues, people concerned about the fiscal side, but the news out this week is good. the deficit proceeds, they seem to have gone away for now. when you look around european bonds at the moment and you go down to belgium now touching zero on the 10-year yield, spain, a little bit higher by 25 basis points earlier. you look at italy and it looks attractive to people. that is what we see happening. jonathan: wherever there is a positive real yield, people want to buy. the problem in europe right now, you assume credit risk in europe right now. investment grade, 50 basis points. you go into high yield, you can find some securities with a negative yield. where do you go in europe? peter: i kind of like italy. i think if you take european debt, european high-yield, we are eyeing that. work on this more

versus u.s. high-yield but i think there is such a dearth of debt. i also very much like the european banks right now i think -- and i think people undervalue them. i think we will see a sea change in europe. lagarde is there to bring in a fiscal stimulus. i think she as a politician is there to force fiscal stimulus, turn the european economies around, and we will have a different growth story, and she may do qe on top of it. i think you will see the change, where everyone has been so negative european growth. there's a lot of undervalued securities at the banks, and italy. jonathan: what worries me about the fiscal stimulus argument, the people calling for it may be the same that are uncomfortable with it if it comes. if you get a repricing in the german bund market, everything will reprice the wrong way. noelle: the thing about fiscal stimulus, it hasn't been done in the near future. what has been done has not been working at least in the context

of the external economy. that is why it will be a breath of fresh air. we do like european credit here, we think the ecb will show up and inflation will allow them to do that. jonathan: where in fixed income and corporate credit in europe do you like right now? noelle: we like european ig, high yield, a little bit of european bank loans. jonathan: why european ig when the only yield you get right now is 50 basis points? explain that to the u.s. audience that could be looking at investment grade in the united states, high-yield in the u.s. at 3.75 over, why go to europe? noelle: mainly because the qe we think will happen, and it will be impactful, will push investors out into these markets even more so. also if you think about the cost of hedging in these other

markets, it is expensive. there is going to be grab, demand for european assets. jonathan: a capital return story for you as well? iain: i think you have seen the capital return story over the year. if you are a u.s. investor, i agree on the comments of the attractive hedging costs. even with the fed at the moment, the hedging costs will go down, but you are getting close to 3% if you are buying european assets, hedging back to the dollar. we like the bb part of the high-yield market. we think the european economy is not yet going into recession. we think the default rates are not likely to pick up in the near-term. get your carry there, and that hopefully a little bit of capital appreciation. i think the big traits already happened this year. jonathan: iain stealey is sticking along with us, alongside peter tchir and noelle corum. another big week in treasuries. we have not had a weekly loss for the 10-year treasury since early may. this week, yields are higher by three basis points.

2.04% on the u.s. 10 year. this could well be the week. the two-year up 11 basis points. post payrolls, a positive surprise, bad news for the front end of the yield curve. that is the treasury situation. still ahead, the week ahead featuring chairman powell, after investors pare back their rate cut bets after a payroll surprise. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, a little bit of economic data and a ton of fed speak. monday, industrial numbers from germany. tuesday, a slew of fed speakers, including chairman powell in boston. presidents all stick and bullard in st. louis.

wednesday, powell will be testifying before the house financial services committee, and we get the minutes of the fed's latest meeting. plus, china ppi and cpi data as well. thursday, the chairman in front of the senate banking committee and the ecb publishing the account of its june meeting. iain stealey, looking out to next week, chairman powell taking center stage. what do you want to hear? iain: the big question is what he makes of the jobs report and what he thinks that does for the fed later in july. that is the big question everyone will ask, will it deter the fed from easing policy? i don't think they will. they have been clear this is the way they are going, seeing a slowdown in growth momentum, and they will be easing policy. but i think any sort of sign that he is looking to walk some of that back will be picked up on quickly by the bond market. noelle: powell in the june meeting, the market thought he was dovish, despite the hard data not being that bad.

he mentioned that we will see how the data plays out. it has been mixed, too, surprising to the upside, especially after today. i think inflation will be based on his commentary in the meeting, what we will be watching for next week. inflation will be more of a focus. growth not so much, just like it was in the june meeting. peter: i think what we have seen is a shift in reaction function. they will be slow to tap on the brakes, very quick to ease if they need. that is the message that will come across. maybe not so many cuts right now but so long as they keep that reaction function, that is good for risk assets. jonathan: rapidfire round, quick question, quick answer. the low for the 10-year yield in 2019 around 1.94. have we seen the low for 2019? peter: yes. we will be surprised by growth.

noelle: yes, close enough. iain: no, we are going down to 1.75. jonathan: 25 basis point cut, 50 basis point cut, or no cut at all in july? iain: 25. peter: 25. noelle: 25. jonathan: the italian-german ten-year spread, what do we see first, 100 basis points or 300? peter: 100. noelle: 100. iain: i think we will go toward 100. jonathan: great stuff as always, iain stealey, peter tchir, noelle corum. thank you very much. that does it for us. this was bloomberg "real yield." we're the slowskys.

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manus: you're watching best of "daybreak: middle east." the major stories driving headlines from the region this week. opec and allies agreed to extend production cuts, but oil prices slumped in the global economic gloom. the oil output curves are hurting the saudi economies gdp growth. we break down the figures for you. saudi arabia is restarting preparations or the potential aramco ipo. the energy minister says the plan was never fully says ended. -- never fully suspended. yousef: opec announced this week it will continue production cuts into 2020