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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  July 18, 2019 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT

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under siege. he also slammed the san juan mayor. calling her, a despicable and incompetent person who i would not trust under any circumstance demonstrations began after a leak of online chat show the governor making misogynistic remarks and mocking his constituents. but if lawmakers have put a big roadblock in the path of any future british prime minister who tries to carry out a no deal brexit. the move came as the uk's official economic watchdog said a no deal brexit would trigger a recession. is due to leave the on october 31, the parliament has repeatedly rejected the divorce deal between prime minister theresa may and the block. in greece, creditors are meeting with the country's new government to discuss tax reform following general elections this month.
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the country's leadership wants to cut taxes that were heightened during three successive international bailout. they worsen the hardship that many greeks have already been expanding. the final bailout program ended last august. congolese soldiers and police will enforce handwashing and beaver checks now that the deadly ebola outbreak has been declared a global health emergency. health officials in congo says those are the key steps in containing the disease that has killed more than 1600 people in the past year. health workers have faced hostility and even deadly attacks that have hampered critical work of tracing contacts of infected people and vaccinating them. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. toronto, i'mife in amanda lange. we are joined by our bloomberg and the nm bloomberg audiences. here the top stories we are following. how low can write go? jp morgan acids manager and says yields on 10 year treasuries can fall all the way to zero. plus, our conversation with the former prime minister of canada. his view on global corp. -- global cooperation and the rise of protectionism. amazon's financial future may be in the cloud. with scott let's get a check on the major averages. it sure did look as though it was earnings and not trade talks driving the action today. we check out the averages, and we can see it is pretty
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lackluster. s&p 500 off the lows of the session, we are seeing a couple key pockets of moves up and down based on earnings. philip morris with 8% at one point. we did see a rate from the philly fed factory surging. financials were up. consumer staples were up across the broad market. here is one we are watching to give you a sense. that is netflix. declineot seen a sharp since the court where it split its two businesses, the online streaming and the dvd. this is a two day look at it. and almost 12% decline. as a $15 billion drop in market value. as it dropped u.s. customers amid new competition and how much it is pending. shery: i'll focus this week has been on the earnings coming out of the u.s.. in the backdrop of this recent rally that we have seen, before
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the reason losses this week, has been more expectations of fed easing. investors are waiting on the meeting as the -- at the end of the month. those who not waiting, other central banks. we had a surprise cut by the bank of korea, lowering rates 1.5% for the first time in three years. it was surprising they did not wait for the fed to act at the end of the month. it was not surprising given that the economy had been taking. exports following for the last seven months. inflation, very subdued, low 1% for the fast -- for the last six month. we have seen investors thinking there will be more cuts coming up. three yearly -- three year yield. at a record discount against a key way. as is the spread on the second panel. it has not only been the be ok. we also sell the bank of indonesia -- we also sell the bank of indonesia cutting for the first time in two years.
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one of the questions is not just how low, but how low and how long will this continue? we are seeing more commentary to that effect. for bloomberg analysis, we have michael cuggino, permanent portfolio family of funds president. we definitely do have the absorb whereg to we go from here. just an overall snapshot from you, we did get the read on manufacturing today. we have had some pockets of strength in the u.s. economy. still some suits -- still some concerns about slowdown. the philly fed number was strong. it is an example about the kind of fed that had of balance the fed needs to find. there are a lot of fears about the slowing of economic growth. by and large, corporate profits are still decent. unemployment is at historic lows. fitness as is and people are spending. cost of capital is reasonable.
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inflation is held in check. you generally do not see recessions begin with that pattern. arguably, they could do nothing on interest rates, and i think it would be fine. however, the market perceives they went too far in december. they have been talking them down. the fed has seemed to agree with that assumption. i think 25 basis point is baked in in july. after that, we will see. i think they should continue to read data and assess the impact of trade and tariffs. the continued expansion of the u.s. economy. what is going on in your. any other which factors that are out there before they make a move. shery: this u-turn we have seen from investors in the fed has been dressy. saying,heard people people loading up on risk assets. boughtl, jp morgan mitchell. he has changed the call saying the bond rally has just begun. take a listen. >> all the way down to zero.
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i think that is where we are heading over the next couple of years. we have had the recovery. it is coming to an end. now, the central banks are falling into line and cutting range paid -- cutting rates. we saw overnight with the back of korea. we have seen it with the bank of is in egypt. you're going to see it with the fed. you may see it with the ecb sooner than people expect. at this point in the cycle, you need some shock and all. i'm not saying we are going to get there right away, but that is the journey we are on until something different happens. shery: what are your thoughts about how markets are perceiving the current environment echo are they getting ahead of -- current environment? are they getting ahead of themselves? michael: i hope we do not see rates of zero. i would disagree that we need stock and awe. the annualized gdp growth is substantially higher than a couple years ago. the economy is not sputtering.
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these things can change quickly. talk to me in three to six months, and they may have a different opinion. with that growth pattern and the likelihood of a continuation, i do not think that is a drastic negative. i do not think it is a reason for rates to go to zero. i do not think it is a reason for us to have shock in our policy. i disagree with that sentiment. i would agree that rates around the world are declining. our fed asked like they are going to join the party in a couple weeks -- our fed looks like they're going to join the party in couple weeks. inhave had the better rates the world in terms of term. our yields are higher than the rest of the world. it is substantiated by better economic growth than in many parts. of the world i would hate to see us lose that advantage by cutting rates unnecessarily and joining the party with the rest of the world. there are other central banks that are cutting for their own reasons. maybe it is appropriate. europe is a good example.
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thank of korea, sure. england as well with brexit going on. those are all valid reasons, but i would not extrapolate those to the u.s. without thinking them through further. amanda: i think most people these days seem to agree there will be a rally in treasuries ahead of us for some time. a key issue here is, the central bank and other central banks, the u.s. federal reserve has not been able to create inflation. at what point does that become more permanent concerning echo what point do you start to think about how you invest long-term? michael: there has already been a menace treasury rally this year. -- a tremendous treasury rally this year. goes, the it likelihood of a future rally. i would be wary of the effect from my perspective. bonds are overvalued. i would be careful of that. the other question that comes to
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mind. my formative years with the late 1970's and early 1980's. i take a position of, be careful what you wish for with respect to crating inflation. the fed's inflation numbers are wo's.d the high one t that is a reasonable number for me. i'm not necessarily in the camp that they have to scramble to create inflation. i think when you start doing that, you crate a lot of tangential risk to the marketplace -- you create a lot of tangential risk to the marketplace. shery: let's talk about the debt. we continue to see the conversations over the debt ceiling. you were watching the chart over the bloomberg where you can see the total amount debt against the debt limit. you can see the growing overhang of government debt. also, u.s. private debt. at what point does this become a private -- point does this become a problem for the
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economy? could a fed cut be counterintuitive given that if you continue to zillow -- two cut debt -- michael: whether we have a rate cut are not, we continue to grow debt by half a billion to a billion a year. we are not the only one. the rest of the world is spending at that level as well. aat continues to create downward evaluation on the unit value of the currency. it is not a good thing. it is not a good thing for households to overspend what they are earning. it is not a good thing for government. it is unsustainable. we have been able to hide a little bit in the last 10 to 15 years because rates have been low. you can add a lot of debt and service it at very low cost, which makes it a hidden problem. if rates go up, they become a much bigger problem from a
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deficit standpoint. that could be another factor for the fed in terms of where they want interest rate to go -- interest rates to go. you want the rate of return on low.debt that can be another factor they consider. as a general rule, you would want to see debt manageable and under control, whether it is household or government. amanda: great to have your thoughts. cuggino, thanks. coming up, -- >> that is clearly what we have done in canada. it is a good thing for me to be able to advocate. we recognize monetary policy and it -- in the current context is not something that is going to enable us to deal with any prospective, significant challenge. when need to recognize that. that is an ongoing discussion. ♪
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amanda: former canadian prime minister paul martin says world leaders will have to fight tooth and now to regain lost ground on ensuring noble corporation. he says a rise in protectionism has eroded some of the founding ideals of the g20. paul: you're not in that position. do we have to fight to get back to where we were? unequivocally. >> i relationship with the u.s. has arguably never been worse in some ways. we have a very fractious president. what should we do? paul: do what we are doing.
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the alternative dispute cycle for the wto, that jim carr is suggesting to the europeans, in which the europeans are, i believe, agreeing with. that is exactly what we should be doing. we have to find attentive institutions that are not working properly. amanda: when you are prime minister, we were equally buffeted by the economic reality of america. we have again, the cap -- we have, again, the debt ceiling problem. the economy the biggest risk? paul: it is the failure of the economy to understand the need to cooperate globally. americanso doubt the -- they have the capacity. they have the capacity to do what they have to do. they just have to take the right decisions. the problem now is, they are turning their backs on the decisions.
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if you turn your back on working with the rest of the world, we are obviously not going to deal with localizations issues. -- with globalization issues. i do not think that is tenable. amanda: tenable as in, 2020 does not see a trump reelection? paul: sooner or later, reality it make amanda: given -- you have mentioned some of the players in the creation of the g20. it was the treasury secretary finance ministers and world leaders. are people still there? they seem very silent in this america. paul: they are. -- thes a very strong united states has a strong capability. they have people who are capable of understanding this. those people did not disappear. some of them are a lot older
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than they were. let's face it, the change began with the creation of the united nations. we would not have succeeded if the americans had not taken such a leadership position. we are not asking the americans to reinvent the wheel someone else credit. we are asking them to participate in that which wert. -- iieve the boys be heard believe that voice will be heard in the united states. amanda: and if we are not? paul: then we are in trouble. amanda: there is a feeling that things are pretty good in the u.s. and canada. there are some parts that feel worrisome, but there are things that feel good. do you subscribe to that view? paul: in terms of the feelings between the two countries, there is no doubt. --talked estate and musical when you talk to estate and missable, the will is there.
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the understanding is there. i do not think we should rely on it. as a country, have to do what we are doing. that is working with alternatives. we are working with europeans. we have to work with them. a lot of work has to take place in africa. if we forget that africa is going to be 25% of the worlds population in 30 years, we are going to be discussing a very different set of issues. we have to work on every frontier that we can. that was our exclusive interview with former canadian prime minister paul martin. shery: we are hearing that president trump as looking at the jedi contract process hearsay. we are talking about the joint enterprise defense and per structure. this is a cloud contract from the pentagon that could be worth as much as $10 billion. president trump had recently demanded more information about the pentagon and how it crafted
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this massive contract that is poised to award amazon or microsoft. the president says he is getting complaints on the contract from microsoft and other companies. the contract is worth as much as $10 billion over 10 years. amazon, whose cloud computing technology leads the market, is seen as the favorite. you can see the two stocks, how they are trading at the moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: this is bloomberg markets. banks move their services online, one question they would ask is, how vulnerable are institutions to cyber security threats? here to answer that question is,
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lends. we should note, -- is scott mullins. possible seen as they front-runner as the president reviews the jedi contract for the anti-gun. can you characterize where you are in financial services? it is a super competitive space. cost-containment is a big deal for the big bang. where you rank in this space? scott: we are financial institutions of all sizes leveraging in any for ways in their businesses. you can look here in toronto, companies like sun life, they are using our machine learning tool that we just announced to make meaningful differences in their business. you can look at companies like cfi international. even organizations in the states like guardian life insurance. a 158-year-old insurance company
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that has been able to close their data centers. seeing a massive adoption of the club across a large number of cases in the industry. shery: financial services are sprinting towards a blockchain future. we have seen facebook try it out with their own asset, libra. amazonre any plans with to do something similar? what are you doing when it comes to blockchain technology echo scott: blockchain is something that is interesting and has been for in a brave years. two blockchain services have been launched. what it allows companies to do, with if you want to work one of the blockchain's, you can spend the environments up easily using the amazon blockchain service. the other service we launched is not specifically distribute it later technology or blockchain. it is what we call quantum ledger database. for those customers who want to
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operate in a trusted network where they know all of the operators, it can be a service of interest to them to have highly scalable letters. amanda: how much of that is answering the question, the security question? the financial institutions to be at the front of the line to make sure my data is protected. scott: security is priority one. as more enterprises around the world look at cloud as an option, they are finding you can operate much more securely. we have had customers say that. present --s a large large presence here. they just spoke about how they -- capital one is another customer who has cited our security and the service we offer as something they are comfortable operating with. shery: you were in toronto. where else are you seeing growth in your business? scott: around the world. if you look specifically in different financial centers, you
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can look at sydney in australia. large banks like the national australia bank, who has invested heavily in cloud training. you can look in europe as well. if you look at santander, they are building a new open bank. if you hop over to the u.k., you would see the challenger banks like on manzo and starling, they are all built on the cloud. shery: thank you for your time. scott mullins, head of world niger -- head of worldwide financial services. if you missed any part of that interview, tv is your function. life from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton with "first word" news. president trump says he was displeased with his audience wednesday at a rally in greenville, north carolina,
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chanting "send her back" after he criticized a somali-born congresswoman from minnesota. after he listed grievances with ilhan omar, some in the audience began chanting. disagree, but it was quite a chat. i felt a little bit badly about it, but i will say this -- i started speaking quickly, but it started out rather fast, as you probably know. mark: top house republicans who voted against resolution condemning the president this week said they viewed the chanting as an acceptable. house minority leader kevin mccarthy said the chants "have no place in our party or our country." amocrats have pushed through bill today with a partyline vote of 231-199


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