tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 30, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
being -- european trading day. i am guy johnson. taylor: i am taylor riggs. down and down is again. down by 6/10 of 1%. the ftse 100 is down but not down as much as its european peers. the pound rescuing the bitsy -- the ftse. 2%.ax down continental equity markets today really under pressure. taylor: a similar theme in the u.s. record highs on the s&p 500 friday after really big earnings last week, and we are coming off of that. off three times of 1%. tech is leading the losses. dialoge the
semiconductors. a lot of the big tech heavy off of apple. i have my eye on the inverted three-month 10-year. you heard from zone he said he wants -30 five basis points before we get too worried about a recession. the financials guide. a london story and european banking story. citigroup announcing hundreds of job cuts yesterday afternoon. 80 of those in london. that pressure from equity revenue trading. i wonder if this low volatility trading and the pressure it is putting is more a systemic than
a cyclical problem. guy: you are certainly hearing it more and more in the banking sector, talking about the fact that people may not be on the sidelines, wreps happening on a more permanent basis. certainly the hedge fund community, that is an issue. let's talk about the markets when it comes to the pound, having its worst run of losses in almost three years. the bloomer pound index is trading at a record low. investors raising serious concerns about the possibility of a no deal brexit. and one could argue, and we will put this point to lester campbell later on, the real thesition party is financial markets. gary shilling joins us now. what you make of the pound's move? are we finally pricing in a no --l brexit i would think so
are we finally pricing in a no deal brexit? >> i would think so. boris johnson is trying to put pressure on the e.u., and this is a glorified game of chicken. guy: when do we get certainty? we have to wait throughout the summer? the markets are not like hard brexit, but they do not like uncertainty. i am wondering, if we get rid of uncertainty, regardless of the outcome, i wonder if you get a positive story for the pound in that situation. gary: i would doubt it. ofertainty is the hallmark the worldwide situation now. tradeainty over trump's negotiations with china, over the economy. the bond market has been telling you that the economy will be week with may be a recession. the stock market has been telling you the opposite. uncertainty does bring an action.
if people sit on their sands and say i will wait -- uncertainty itself is not going to put economies into recession, but it can be a contributor. taylor: you heard guy mentioned the pound. research youhe have done on inflation and reflation, pound weakness, can you import reflation -- inflation, and what does mark carney do? gary: sure, you can import, particularly in an economy that is more trade oriented as the u.k. is relative to the u.s. our exports are 13% of gdp. they tend to be 10% to 20% in europe and even higher in germany. they are more sensitive to currency effects in and for -- in imports and exports. that is a factor. but at the moment, i do nothing britain is worried too much about inflation. taylor: arguably, neither is the
u.s. we look at where we are, and it seems more and more we sit here and your global this inflation, deflation calls are vindicated. gary: thanks, i appreciate you remembering that. that is what is going on. what is fascinating is that the player tothe last have that understanding. they were sticking with this phillips curve, couldn't figure out why low unemployment was not ending up with low unemployment. i think jay powell said enough, we will not rely on theoretical economists but look out the window into what is going on. but the fed is struggling -- you put western technology and it into cheap labor places like china, and now they are moving on in china with a trade dispute in vietnam and india and bangladesh and so forth. it is very deflationary.
then you look at things like the on demand economy, the uber effect and amazon -- who would want to sell anything that could be bought on amazon, because there is only one price -- a low price. you have a lot of deflationary forces in the world, and i think the fed is finally beginning to realize that they are -- and they are talking about adjusting inflation. saying we have to allow more on the upside because we are dealing with a downside bias. but it does create problems for them, because they have a zero bond policy. they do not want to go below zero in interest rates. they have seen what happened in japan and europe. negative interest rates do not spur on borrowing. people say my assets are declining in value because of deflation and become a negative rate, so i have to save more in order to retire or whatever. i think the fed said we will let those guys experiment with that, and it did not work, so they
really have a problem. i think they will go down to quantitative easing at some point. they do not really have much else they can do. is: the ammunition box beginning to look empty. can i return to the fed for a moment? walkifficult a tight rope does jay powell have in front of him? if he signals that he will cut more than twice and go beyond what the market thinks of as an insurance cut to keep the cycle going, is there a danger that what we actually get tomorrow is the market taking that as a negative story? because the market will extrapolate and say he will cut more than twice, and that is the beginning of a great cycle, as a result of which we will have to discount a recession. is that the danger? gary: that is an excellent observation and a valid one.
what has happened is we are looking at what the fed does not why the fed does it, and i think they have been trained by this fed-led stock bull market that started in march of 2009, driven by knocking rates down to zero and then quantitative easing and so on and so forth. they really do not care why. why does the fed want to cut rates? they're worried about the economy. they are where they do not have much space to cut them, but they are concerned. if they thought the economy was really riproaring and thought inflation would go through the roof and maintain 3% gdp, they would not cut rates -- quite the opposite. we will see what they do tomorrow and what the signals are of further cuts. but at some point, there will be people who say, wait a minute, maybe we ought to join the fed and look at the economy versus simply do whatever the fed does
as far as cutting rates. perhaps this is news. guy: i think the communication will be pivotal. the fed is going to be cutting rates. i think that is baked in now. as a result of which, you have to assume that there are a whole bunch of investors out there, and you can see it in credit spreads, in a whole range of assets. they are basically being forced into assets that maybe they would not be buying at this point. that the nextger phase we get and when the economy turns over, the delta on that will be so much more business -- vicious, because we can see that asset unwind that people fear? gary: it is possible, but i do not think you see a lot of
enthusiasm now. there is more caution, if not outright pessimism. after a lot of revisions and data in -- will be interesting friday to see what happens. the employment numbers. will they revise down the previous months number? that is a pattern that is usually a sign of a peak. but i think, right now, there is not that concern or irrational exuberance. but if the fed cuts 25 and says we will cut a couple more, and everyone says hallelujah, just watch event -- you could get a blow off and then things could be more severe on the downside. guy: that is a good point. gary will stick around. be sure to tune in to bloomberg tv's special coverage of the fed.
2:00 a.m.london and in hong kong. taylor: let's take a look at where the u.s. market stand almost two hours in to the opening bell. the dow mostly unchanged. s&p off one quarter of 1%. half green, half red, led by the drop in tech and financials, leading to the nasdaq, off 3/10 1%, led by big tex as we -- big tech as we await apple earnings after the bell. this is bloomberg. ♪
first word news. here is courtney donohoe. courtney: president trump lashed out at china for not being willing to buy u.s. farm products. the president said the tweets not long after a top-level u.s. trade delegation arrived in china to resume negotiations. expectations for a breakthrough remain low. round two of the democratic presidential debates. over the next two nights in detroit, the presidential hopefuls will square off on cnn. tonight will have a rematch between joe biden and kamala harris, who moved up in polls after admonishing joe biden about resolutions. according to the association press -- associated press, plane told to restrict
their aircraft. and boris johnson is warning there may be no exit negotiations with the european union. the threat of a no deal divorce with e.u. has sent the pound falling. he is in wales to make the case for his brexit strategy. global news 24 hours a day on air, and at @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. thanks. i now to get a check on global markets. a huge week for earnings. today's the second-biggest day for earnings relative to market cap for the s&p. how is it looking? >> a risk off tone. take a look at the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. down modestly, 3/10 1%. the bears are in control to some degree into a greater degree in europe. the dax down two point 2%. the stoxx 600 down 1.5%, having to do more so with fears of a no
deal brexit and what that could mean. that is also affecting their british pound for a fourth day in a row, down for days in a row. declining 2.5%. on pace for though worst four day since june of 2017, the original brexit deadline. investors and traders are worried about what kind of mayhem or mess could come from that. boris thinks the british -- and analyst thinks the british pound will drop to multi-decade lows. let's take a look at the leaders and laggards. procter & gamble up 4.5%, beating top and bottom line estimates. on the top line, the best organic sales growth of more than 7%, really helped out by beauty and health care. merck up 1%. big revenue numbers there as well. they beat by almost $1 billion, beating by 7%.
their key cancer drug really a aockbuster, a on pace to be $10 billion plus a year drug. apple reports after the close, everybody looking to see what comes out of the iphone plus and commentary on china and the effects of the trade war. texas instruments down 1.6%, weighing on their chip sector, which is underperforming on the day. tech also one of the poor performing sectors. guy: thank you. let's get back to gary shilling, bloomberg columnist and president of a. gary shilling and company. we have lighthizer and mnuchin in shanghai, there to further the trade negotiations. what is your expectation of how this is going to unfold from here? seems to haveange changed dramatically, the markets pricing in a longer,
drawn out affair. is that a correct way of assessing the situation? gary: i think it is. you have to look at this on a couple levels. first and foremost, you have a worldwide struggle between the u.s. and china for who is going to be the leader. the chinese have this attitude going back for millennia that they are the head of the world and everybody brings tribute to them, and that used to be the case with the chinese emperors, so they have never quite forgotten that. of course then in the 19th century, they were humiliated by the europeans -- and we were involved in that too, basically invading china. so they want their place in the sun. the u.s., we have had dominance really starting with world war i indefinitely after world war ii. the point is that trump very much wants to make sure that china does not supersede us by
questionable means. and china realizes now that they can no longer grow with exports. that worked wonderfully when you had globalization, manufacturing shifting from north america and europe to china. then of course the cheap imports coming back. but that game it is pretty well saturated, so china realizes they need technology to grow, and where will they get that? they have to get it from the west. that is where the basic struggle is. tech transfer and the requirement that you give us your technology if you want to do business in china. if you do not give it, we will steal it anyway. so you have this plight. i think the u.s. will win the trade war, because we are the buyer and they are the seller. when there is plenty of supply of goods and services, the buyer has the upper hand. but it will be messy. there is no easy solution. you have a situation now where
you got pressure on both side. trump has the 2020 election. xi has to worry about production shifting out of china to vietnam, anglo -- -- bangladesh, and it will not come back. so both sides have a lot of pressure, but i think the u.s. is going to win. demanding is that they not only play the game they said -- the way they said they would in 2001, but we are able to verify that. taylor: looking at trade and tariffs, jay powell said tariffs in high input costs are the wrong sort of inflation, it is transitory, not what we want to see. would you agree? gary: that is right. if you get that, it is a one-shot deal. we have done research on this,
and there is only, if you look at currency fluctuations, or import-export prices, they only change about one third of the current currency fluctuations. tariffs, in effect, are the same thing as a cheaper currency. you say why is that? what happens is the suppliers, they do not want to lose market share, so they shave their margins. going the other way, if you are exporting, and you have a weak currency, you say i will fatten my margins, i will not give it all to the other guys. with production shifting elsewhere, those numbers -- the uncertainty of the whole thing is probably much more important than the actual effects of the tariffs. taylor: wonderful conversation. that was gary shilling, bloomberg columnist and president of a. gary shilling
live from new york, i am taylor riggs. guy: from london, i am guy johnson. close, we head into the let's look at some of the bloomberg business flash stories, some of the biggest stories in the news. procter & gamble reported its best quarter in organic sales in more than a decade. increased pricing added three percentage points to sales. shares of merck are rising to the drugmaker boosted its
forecast for 2019. sales of its best-selling cancer drug rose 58%. the drug is on pace to become a $10 billion a year product. massive datane's breach exposed the information of 106 million people in north america. stored onad been servers rented from amazon. capital one says it is unlikely any of the data was used for fraud. that is your business flash update. a quick check on u.s. markets. two hours into the u.s. trading s&p stillow is lower, off 3/10 of 1%, nasdaq leading the losses. slowing sales into the full year, given some of the trade tensions with china.
-- the vix, ithat call that unchanged. i will call this lower, weaker, but not panicky. guy: europe looks a little worse. it certainly does on the continent. the dax down 2.1%. there are individual stock stories in their hurting the dax. downsideding sharply -- that is the monsanto roundup story. more gloom out of the aviation sector. the london market only down four of 1%, but, -- 4/10 the pound is kind of rescuing the british stock market. ♪
nordic markets down. the london market faring better. let me show you why. the reason is the british pound continues to fall -- this is a one-week chart of the pound versus the dollar. a similar story when it comes to the euro. a sharp move lower as we price and the possibility of a hard brexit. that is what we are seeing in terms of foreign-exchange markets and what we're seeing in terms of the equity market. i will show you numbers to compare and contrast say you can see what is happening between the individual markets around europe. the ftse is down .4%. we have the dax down 2.14% and the cac 40 trading down 1.5%. individual stocks are important. every single sector in europe is trading lower. let me show you that on the grr function. every single stock sector is trading lower. is doing wellage
today. oil and gas trading reasonably well. health care reasonably well, basic resources reasonably well. ,hese sectors down around one 1.2%. banks down a third. anything exposed to traders down. utilities trading down. a real mix in terms of the sector story but the market, from a rotation point of view, migrating towards some of the safer sectors. individual names are worth paying attention to and they are moving these markets reasonably aggressively. let's do with some of those. gloom in the aviation sector quite dramatic. also affecting the london market, cutting its dividend. upside, bp trading up
3.64%, bucking the trend. earnings are having a big effect. guidance is having a big effect. of the individual stories are driving european markets. that is look at the close. taylor: you mentioned earnings. that is the key focus in the s&p 500. second-biggest day in terms of market value, 12% of our market cap is reporting. second best day since last thursday, the day after that the market rallied to a high. only green on the screen relative to everything else in red, the russell 2000 small-cap domestic stocks insulated from the trait fight getting a boost because of the stronger dollar. i spoke with gary shilling at the commercial break. he wants the 10-year to go to 1%. he thinks the 30 year will go to 2%. you can see at 100 basis point rally as yields continue to fall lower.
take a look at another across asset picture. part of that is the nasdaq. outside of earnings it is a big week for the nasdaq. apple and qualcomm expected to report and that means apple's lower ahead of those earnings. look to see it iphone sales -- we are talking about deflation. crude finally one half of 1%. procter & gamble another individual story we are watching. higher input costs and tariffs are having an effect. procter & gamble strong namebrand. they are able to pass some of those costs to consumer. those higher costs adding 3% to topline revenue growth. procter & gamble continuing to show us how to get it done. guy? guy: let's get back to the pound story and the debate over brexit and the debate -- the impact boris johnson strategy is having on the u.k. economy. joining us is alastair campbell, former press secretary for the labor leader and prime minister
tony blair. he has just written a letter to jeremy corbyn saying he no longer wants to be readmitted to the party because it is facing an "existential crisis." thank you for taking the time to join us. , the onlyi can tell opposition to boris johnson's brexit move is the financial market. the pound is down sharply over the last few trading sessions. why aren't the political opposition parties stepping up? some of them are trying to. sturgeon, the first minister of scotland, i think the democrats and the greens have been famously -- vehemently opposed to brexit. one of the reason i've written the letter i've written to the leader of labour party is that the labour party does not seem
to see how bad things could be forced johnson pursues this hard brexit strategy. what you are seeing happening is the fantasies of his campaign to become leader of the conservative party and prime 2.5% of thected by country is now hitting the hard road of reality. because of all the statements he made to win over the very old, right wing, mail, southern-based membership of the joint party, yes foxtons helped in. -- he has boxed himself in. the statements he has made, the european union not be able to grant. what we have with boris johnson is not a politician, let alone a prime minister. a journalist. it is about the next headline, the next story. that is why we are in such a mess. the financial markets are
moving to price in a hard brexit. the risk of a hard brexit are rising. is that a correct assessment? give us your feeling on how close to a hard brexit we are now? alastair: i understand why people are making that judgment. he has made that cause. the message of his leadership election was we are do or die by october 31. i still think it is possible to stop the whole damn thing. i know that may sound ludicrously optimistic, but we are now in a situation where the only options are a hard brexit, leaving without a deal, and the catastrophe that represents for most people across europe and in particularly the u.k. and ireland. the second thing is an election. i think he is banking on
election. he has decided he would lose referendum. no brexit wins by a landslide in my view. he has to go to election that will give him a mandate, something that even before he gets there will do incalculable damage to the country. my hope rests in parliament doing everything they possibly can to make sure this does not happen. we are in unpredictable times. volatile,y ill-equipped prime minister. taylor: you right there has been a fundamental change in the direction of the company without a democratic mandate. do you want to see another referendum to make sure the democratic process is clear? alastair: yes, i do. i'm campaigning with the people's boat campaign because i'm against referendums. attlee and clement
margaret thatcher on the record as saying referendums were a vehicle for demagogues and not the best way to participate in decisions. it was a referendum called by david cameron that delivered the vote for brexit. we have had more than three years now, we are still not out. the problems have mounted. the damage to our economy and our standing in the world is huge. i think the public are entitled to say whether on the basis of what we now know, with the prime minister we now have, talking the nonsense he talks, whether they wish to proceed. the reason why believe boris believes that general election is the only way of winning a mandate is because he believes jeremy corbyn will never get elected because of his views and his lack of popularity among the public, and boris , foron and nigel farage
all their bluster, they are scared of the will of the people. they believe they would lose a referendum if the brexit worst johnson was now pursuing was staying in the european union. guy: you were thrown out of the labour party for voting liberal democrat in the european elections. you have written that you do not want to be readmitted because of where the party is now. who was the real leader of the opposition? is it jeremy corbyn or is it shows swinson? the leader of the opposition in our political constitution, it is a constitutional position. is the person who leads the biggest party across the other side from the government. it is, officially, jeremy corbyn.
the question is who is controlling that? the fact is that one of the reasons i've decided the labour party is no longer my party is because the people are surrounding jeremy corbyn and directing the policies and the strategies are people who until recently were communist and stalinists. he has allowed this hard left politics back in the labour party where we thought the previous leaders of the labour party had defeated. leader of the liberal democrats did very well in european elections. scotland is very powerful figure. wales voted narrowly to leave the european union. there has been a huge shift against that in welch public opinion. fragmented,on is
but what you are seeing is the politics are fragmented and brexit is doing that. brexit is doing so much now in every aspect of our national life. guy: d.c. jeremy corbyn step -- do you see jeremy corbyn stepping down were being removed from the labour party this side of the general election you're talking about boris johnson heading for? i say my letter today, the thing is on the website of the new european newspaper. if there was an election tomorrow, he would probably win again. he has seen off challengers, and that is because the party has been captured by his supporters. my strand the labour party has left. i suspect he would win. whethertion i pose is
he doesn't, as a leader, have to look deep into himself and ask if he is capable of rising to the challenge. , theover the last few days new prime minister has come in. it was not as if it was a surprise boris johnson won the leadership election to become prime minister of the tories. yet there is no evidence they have any strategic forethought as to how they were going to handle that. i think if he does leave the labour party, there is a real problem with the labour party. there are other people who could step up and do a better job. it is up to him. guy: on that note we will leave it. thank you very much indeed for your time. alastair campbell, the former press secretary of the labour party prime minister tony blair. a bit of breaking news. air france ordering 60 airbus jets. these are the jets that used to
be known as the c series. a big order coming through from airbus from air france. some suggesting that airbus could look to increase capacity to maybe tillries some of the gaps being left by the max as the result of boeing's problems. the ftse 100 has dipped during the auction process but the ftse 100 being rescued relative to its european peers by the downgrade in the pound that we've just been discussing with alastair campbell. a look at the continental markets -- the dax down 2.2%, the cac 40 down 1.61%. we will carry on the conversation with the financial markets and the reaction to brexit on the cable show. that is at the top of the hour at 5:00 in london. jonathan ferro is in new york, i will be joining him in london. available on dab digital radio
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. taylor: from new york, i'm taylor riggs. time for bloomberg exclusive. sales growth at huawei is slowing as u.s. sanctions start to hurt. the chairman spoke with us. they talked about tensions with the u.s. and the trade fight. we do not know when the u.s. will make the decision on android and when that decision will come. we have to make preparations for our products. we will evaluate our strategy for the overseas market. if we are not able to use
android for a new smartphones, we have the ability to develop our own operating system and ecosystem which would become the basis for our services to the customers. >> give us a sense of how fundamentally you have change your supply chain to mitigate some of these pressures? have you completed those changes or is there more to be done? >> the entity list put into place by the u.s. was disrupted to our supply chain, as we had already made plans to use components from the u.s. for our business. u.s. supplier suddenly stop supplying us. we have to make adjustments to our supply chain, including her process of purchasing, manufacturing, and delivering products. we will do the adjustments to our supply chain. we will change to other suppliers and use our own chips for the core components. the damage to the u.s. suppliers is even bigger that it is to walk away -- huawei.
we will have to manage internally, but the damage to the u.s. supplier is direct. frome u.s. removes huawei the entity list, that would be a solution. >> what impact do you seeing on-demand of your 5g equipment giving the u.s. pressure campaign on some of its allies around the world to block access to huawei? >> although the u.s. has been launching a campaign among its allies, it is up to each country to decide its partners based on his own development demands, telecommunication demand, and infrastructure construction demands. i think now there might be some impact in places like australia, but there are others who are willing to work with huawei. when: when it come -- >> it comes to components, you have set your still blocked on some of your key suppliers. can you give us clarity on who those suppliers are and the success you have had or not the
finding alternative companies and alternative supplies to fill those gaps? >> you might have some components we cannot buy from the u.s., but we will use our own components to supplement. smartphone operating systems like google's operating system and ecosystem have not resumed business with us yet. we are working to find a way to patch this hole. we hope to see good news, but if there is not any, will try to enhance our own capabilities. expectexcept -- you huawei to be part of the conversations when the trade negotiators meet in shanghai? you welcome the backing of the chinese government for your company? >> huawei is purely a company. when countries talk, they talk about the topics. in the talks about china and the u.s., they will talk about big
topics. only wants to do its own job. they need to patch up the holes and manage continuity as well as ensure product delivery. we do not sell to the u.s. what we care about is doing a solid job to make sure the products are delivered to our customers. guy: tom mackenzie's exclusive interview with huawei's chairman. this is bloomberg. ♪
other european companies. the highest since 2017. bob: a good quarter. strong operating results. 93% to 95% of our facilities running good cash flow. is gulf of mexico settlement a big milestone for us to get through and the business is working well across the board. >> you reiterated the capex view. what is the risk to that number? is there risk to the upside or downside? bob: we are right in range for that. the first half of the year was 7.3. by the end of the year will be back in the middle of that range. we said that in 2017. we are on track for that. >> let me talk you about the price of oil. we sit with brent at $54 a barrel. the iea is predicting an
oversupply next year. are you concerned with global growth issues? are you concerned with oversupply in the market? bob: there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. you they downside issues. intentionally venezuela, iran, lots of uncertainty. permian crude coming on. chinese demand. the first half of the year, softness and demand but it is coming back up. hard to predict, but we will be fine. you so your products globally around the world. very into in with the global growth story. if we are nervous about global growth, where your nerves focus? bob: energy demand tracks gdp growth. we are seeing growth over one million barrels a day. right now, we do not see softness in our products. if you market well, you can overcome demand growth. right now we feel comfortable
going into 2020. >> on the supply side their geopolitical concerns. how safe you feel it is sending ships full of crude through that waterway at this point? bob: we will be extremely careful. we have had ships move in and out. we have had concerning incidents. we're not sending british ships and crews into the gulf. it is quite a chokepoint. 20% of the world's oil passes through it. if you look at all the tankers, one out of every three tankers passes through that small stretch. that is why it is getting attention. guy: ceo of bp, bob dudley talking earlier on to anna edwards. taylor: coming up next, "balance of power" with david westin. he will talk china trade. first i want to get a look at the latest u.s. markets. it is all about fundamentals and
earnings season with 12% of market cap within the s&p 500 reporting and nasdaq continues to lead the losses. unchanged. exactly where we've been over the last few hours. only up .4%. , nothing to get too hysterical about. i want to look at live photos of williamsburg, virginia. the jamestown settlement and side of the first permanent english settlement in north america. president trump giving some remarks at the 400th anniversary celebration of the first representative assembly in the western hemisphere. we will have more coming next. this is bloomberg. ♪
on the brief today, kenny leonard from washington on shanghai talks trying to get u.s. china trade talks back on track. kevin cirilli on the presidential debates tonight and from london emma chandra on prime minister boris johnson bold step toward brexit. let's start with you, jenny and what is going on with the u.s. china trade talks. the u.s. china trade talks are happening in shanghai right now. while we are getting very few details out of those talks, we are getting a lot of details from the white house from the president, who is clearly thinking about these talks today and he is clearly upset about the lack of agricultural purchases from china, which is a little bit surprising because we have reported, about four weeks ago, and chinese state media has reported that beijing would not move forward with any purchases
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