tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 14, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
staples and that sort of thing, they are creeping onto the unattractive list. so that is interesting, because those stocks have skyrocketed on the defense may be exhausting themselves. >> interesting. we have seen what skyrocketed today and stocks falling 2.9%. still up 13% on the s&p and today was hard and so many people coming off the sidelines. >> you have the dow closing off by 800 points. i want you to see this. >> it's really close, at least on the s&p, fraction of appoint away from the lows. >> 800 points. intraday points from today's open to today's close is 563
points in terms of the peak to trough. every day this month, we have een 00-point swings in the dow jones industrial average. level.closing lowest first year, lowest yield ever and the spread gets below since 2007. numbers the dow, 30 1%.lower than by at least >> the s&p 500, taking a look at a chart that we have now, five sessions in a row. going to keep the score. set the stage. this is a 50-day moving average in yellow. at the start of last year, once below that average, it couldn't
get out of its own way. the buyers really did step up and had a nice rally and absolutely slicing below it. in may, we had a bout down below the 50-day and sally, you are below that 50-day moving average. it looks likely we will go down to the 200-day average. if we go below the laszlo of 2822. so things could get bear tissue pretty quickly. >> it could get bearish and looking at one of the biggest stories. the inversion. look at this chart and see global economic slowdown continues that inverted gap in rates for two and 10-year treasuries and lowest for the first time since 2007 and this is a precursor recession and
leads by a year and a half and longer term growth while the fed's rate helps supports yields on the shorter end. >> thank you so much. doug, i want to come back to you . doug, you heard abigail talk about how things could get bearish really quickly. 2744 on the s&p 500, why is that so significant for you? >> well, we do some technical work but the 2744 is the june 3 low. there is no other magic or looking at a price pattern. the thinking here is what is teatering right here is business and consumer confidence. and it is getting whipped around by daily moves in the stock market like you saw yesterday and then followed by today. the surprise tweets don't help. so confidence has been very
volatile and we look at a lot of measures and options-implied vol tilts. and the consumer confidence numbers are very good but the issue is the stock market is related to confidence. and i just think if we go back and take out that july -- i'm sorry, june 3 low and remember that may decline was triggered by an escalation of the trade war by donald trump. if we go back and break through that level, i think that's going to break the back of confidence on the part of both business and consumers and that will be it for the economic upswing in the u.s. and will be it for the u.s. bear market. so we are not that far away. it's around 90 points or so, little over 3%. so again, to me that would be a confirmation and if that level in the s&p should fall,
remember, we have a lot of stuff that is already there or broken through it. there are cyclical stock indexes and transports. i was looking at the average stock earlier today, it's right there. i mean this has been a very narrow market in the last couple of months. so a lot of stocks are sniffing out economic trouble. >> when the market goes up, you could ignore the risks out there and when the market goes down suddenly it is like germany and argue again tina and hong kong and other stuff going on. if what we are seeing in hong kong, is that driving a ripple effect with liquidations? >> it could potentially be possible. we have seen money "money flow" out. that is right. the story changes from
day-to-day. yesterday, the s&p were surging and had a strong day. yet in the morning we are still dealing with weak economic data t of sing -- singapore and germany. it seems as though it is ignored because it is easier to ignore them on the days when you have strong gains. we have seen such strong volatility when it comes to swings this month. if you look at the average daily swing, 1.8%. the only time you seen a greater 2016.was january of we are set for the most active month of the year. we are seeing a bit of a change. >> i'm interested on what is happening to individual companies. sco, came in line with
expectations but noirk is not living up. it first quarter revenue estimate next quarter. the market went to 83 cents. and even though we see a relatively decent fourth quarter for them. >> especially these days given so little visibility. when you look at macy's giving how disappointing how disappointed investors were by the latest results, how much faith do you put in the company's outlook here because they are dealing with the same set of circumstances which we don't know what is going to change their outlook? >> with regard to macy's i found it remarkable they attributable
so little of the disappointment to tariffs. i find the amount was so small and i find it hard to believe. i don't know exactly and exactly what their sourcing is to what they sell on the floor. but again with tariffs, we have argued -- if you do the math, i be a whole houldn't lot of net impact on g.d.p. over time -- they are not insignificant, but it relates to animal spirits. and it's not only the fact that we are doing them, but it's the fact that when we do them and to what extent we do them is uncertain. there is really no ability to plan forward, especially with this christmas sort of channel stuffing season right ahead of us. we don't know what will be impacted and when that rate might hit.
so, i hate to say investors hate uncertainty. it is a terrible cleach a. but the whipping of those policies at the same time you get the whipping around in the markets at a time when confidence is fragile and the cycle is expended. i almost said the same thing with the events in hong kong, mid cycle, if we have a steadier rise in investor confidence, markets could slug that off. won't have that current luxury with the current backdrop. cisco falling in after-hours trading after first quarter outlook misses. the average is what analysts were looking for. that does it for the closing bell and for me.
the company results signalling more pain ahead. and buy, sell, hold, we'll find out where the top money managers put their money in the second quarter, within this hour. slashing, recession warnings, a stock selloff. and the you and u.k. treasury yields fell to a record low. the gap between two and 10-year yields dropped below zero after a wave of stock economic data. i'm interested in your view of the recession. has it signaled, the small inversion not for long on the
2-10. >> we have been looking the curve since march. our model for recession actually slashing to be more precise. over the next 12 months. if you look at the models, they don't give that signal. global growth is weak. we have these trade headwinds, how much does it impact u.s. growth. this is the big question out there. and the market believes that the fed is no longer pre-emented and this is not enough and what's ahead for the u.s. economy. that is -- i believe it. >> if you flip this into a model, how does the fed react to this in away that is going to be effective? >> we have jackson hole next week and some investor sent ti
metropolitan and it will say much more than a mid-season adjustment. it's too early for the fed. they wab to be preempted and they want to see the data. the data is going to take a turn for the worse and the fed has to see more than a mid-cycle adjustment. >> if we do go into recession. >> it may be too late to back track and change people's perspective. >> it could help a lot. the fed was the case that turned around the market in may, june when they started to talk about it. it is not a coincidence that the
stocks made its peace and this may not be the first in a string of long-term cuts. there is some support that feds can do and we are clammering for support. but i don't know if it will be enough to get stocks to travel all the way back and past their former peaks unless we get support from the trade site. because the signal from the latest market movements surrounding trade is a delay is not enough, we need some kind of truth and stability to get the confidence that businesses will re-invest because that's the key. we need to see a slowdown in the deterioration of business investments before stocks get more excited. >> what i found interesting about the u.k.'s present dickament, they are increasing inflation at the at the same
time. do both central banks say we are happy with it running hot at the moment? >> i think, yes. what the fed has realized and they would be happy to have that overshoot. if inflation is moving higher that is a shock. i don't think the fed does president think that is an issue. a would be inflation running little bit high. and only been two weeks and maybe i'm harsh. but it has flattened. so the market is falling the fed's bluff that it doesn't do a whole lot. it. ile i do -- can high ut this is not an intrastate problem. and i don't think the fed has the ammunition to move that higher.
they probably don't want to be ahead of the curve and say we got the market's back because i don't think they have the tools to improve. >> how much faith the market has either in the fed or trade policy. market o august 1 and tanks and we recoupe those losses but never got close to that 3,000. is that faith dwindling that we will get a trade deal or fed support or that trade deal and fed support will be enough? >> there is confidence in the economic outlook has taken a hit in the last couple of weeks and not exclusive to trade but probably an impact from the trade turmoil that we have been contending with the last year and a half. the numbers out of germany and china kicked off on a sour note and gone lower from there.
we have seen some deterioration in the confidence of the economic outlook. equity investors look at the most important. we don't know. but nonetheless, it's the one that typically mostly inverts relative to the recession time line. so the ticking time clock set by inversions and the yield curves last year and again in march is just accelerating and that is decreasing the amount of confidence that we have. >> i want to ask you about the role in people's portfolio. on big down days in the stock market, you get the nice jobs and yields. hedging some of the risk. and we aren't getting much of a bounce up in yields so we are not paying for it. it is like a free lunch for investors, because it is hardly costing anything. great volatility is happening.
how long can that last and could we have some period of time in which we continue to have these tremors in risky assets and the yield starts falling and the overall portfolio doesn't work quite as beautifully? >> it depends where you are. if you are hedging aspect of treasury is a lot more. the market is already priced. so i think the front end is going to lag that. what can change that is inflation. but real wage inflation. i hope for all our sake, it is tight enough and we spend more. that is real sustainable inflation. that is bad news. but i have to say, we look at demographics, automation. these are things that keeps the
pressure -- going to talk about the old curve. >> it would have been taking that. for ually need inflation it to be higher. that is bad news for the long end. treasury can be the only hedge here. >> that's the message here? all right. both. ou coming up, we were chasing a high-risk on an i.p.o. and hope to sell billions of stocks. ♪
we work at high risk i.p.o. having raised $12 billion and never turned a dime of profit and the company one step closer to going public. we have the bloomberg news i.p.o. reporter. this is one of the more interesting to come to market. we have been expecting it, it seemed to raise more questions than it did answer. he idea that $2.3 billion in negative equity at the end of the second quarter, where was a company so leveraged and deep in a hole and come to the market and ask investors give me a bunch of money. >> companies like uber going public, it's arrays to market share and borrow at all costs.
>> still isn't making money. are we able to tell from the filings whether we have been around for years and it is a profit-making enterprise. >> there is a big question between revenue growth and profitable revenue growth. it is cloudy and they are taking their stab into it. but this is an over arcing question like lyft and uber or snap and blue april ron.
how are these companies going to perform >> uber is cutting back. anniversary working in a business. safe money. this is a tough thing. but seriously, in terms of some of the other things we learned, they had a pompous statement. we knew they had losses. how much control was he going to be taking? >> we knew it was a lot of control and credit. these numbers give us more certainty as to what those figures out. the costs are just overwhelming, look at the filings today. over 500 designers and architects and trained community managers, they are to have collaboration and support their members profingse neal and these are the things that we put
putting money towards. >> thank you very much for joining us. and hedge funds disclosing second quarter investments in 13-f filings. >> let's look at the 13-f filings for the last of the big investors, berkshire hath ah away. bank of america, coke ca cola. wells fargo. kraft-heinz, amazon increased by 10% as some of the other positions out. and we had an icon adding to petroleum and activist. blue mountain cut their pg and e. and new buys including uber and square. d square added berkshire hathaway. from new york, this is
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with the first word news. hong kong officials have confirmed nearly 1000 flights were canceled over the last five days and at the airport had to freeze public assets. the hong kong secretary for housing and transport explained why the airport's management obtained an interim injunction. >> we have no choice but to go the way, to ensure that airport would not be affected anymore, and to ensure the economy and at the future of hong kong would not be jeopardized. occurrencese such
in the future. mark: a statement from protesters to airport travelers reads in part, "it is not intention to cause delays to your travels and we do not want to cause inconveniences o you -- to you. we ask for understanding and forgiveness as young people in hong kong continue to fight for freedom and democracy." a plaintiff strike at heathrow airport has been suspended, workers at the busiest airport in europe had planned to walk off the job for two days next week over pay disputes. officials say the union representing security guards, firefighters and other workers is giving its members time to consider the company's offer of a nearly 8% pay raise over two years. democrats on the house oversight committee want answers from william barr over the decision to resume executing federal death row inmates for the first time since 2003. in a letter, they asked why the
decision was made, and who was consulted. while the death penalty remains legal in many states, federal executions are rare. there are questions that jeffrey epstein will never answer now. but in 2003, he spoke to a journalist, david bank, over the course of five hours on his caribbean island. he discussed a range of subjects from how bear stearns to alan greenberg helped him to get his start. why it is all about who you know and why he only took ultra wealthy clients. >> they would say, can you come look at my file, tell me what you think. -- and i said i would only take a billion dollars or more. mark: he said he was also "very comfortable in my own skin. i feel free to follow my own
personality." global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. another day, another round of bad news highlighting the risk at that the global economy is heading for a downturn. with germany and china both suffering, and bonds in the u.k. and u.s. sending out recession warnings. dana peterson is joining us. thank you for joining us. how bad is it? obviously, the china data, the industrial growth at a 17 year low, germany sliding into a recession -- can we see the world is a recession or are we not there yet? dana: we are not there yet, but economic indicators have been worsening. in china waited receive some pretty pathetic data.
retail sales, industrial production and germany. we had negatives on gdp. so there are concerns about the future, the next 12 months and what will look like globally. romaine: you mentioned what we got out of china and germany. we obviously have mixed data coming out of other segments in europe and the u.s. is the global slowdown, is it issuesrelated to demand issues or financial stability issues, or is it more policy induced when it comes to the slowdown? dana: i was i just it is policy induced. even when we look at europe as a whole, domestic demand seems to be holding up. in germany, business investment has gone to the upside for the fourth quarter in a gone to thee fourth quarter in a row. it is really the external environment. and a lot of it is policy driven, by the policies of the u.s. with respect to trade, also with respect to china as it is conducting its own structural adjustments, which began before
the trade wars. caroline: is everyone has recession back on their lips, are you expecting one in the u.s. in the next 12 months, or globally in the next 12 months? dana: that is not our base case. but there are downside risks. the fact that yield curves are flattening around the globe signals the concern among markets, that, first of all monetary policy is not as easy as it should be, many people waiting for fiscal policy to kick in. and that there is a fear that interest rates will become low and a stay that way for a long. period. joe: speaking of the fed, we were talking to our guest earlier and she said the fed will still want to see signs of an economic slowdown before they really act aggressively. because obviously, in the u.s., the data seems to be holding up. does the fed need to get more proactive? and if it waits for more clear evidence of the downturn reaching u.s. shores, do you
worry that could be too late? dana: i thing we should think about why the fed cut rates in july in the first place. number one, it was not pleased with the fact that inflation keeps missing its target. but the other factors are more external. we had the degree of uncertainty that has arisen among businesses amid trade disputes. then the trade disputes themselves weighing on global growth. so jerome powell did indicate the fed could potentially cut rates a few more times, one or two more times, citi's estimate is at least one more time in september, but it is not so much at they are looking for bad data, they are watching the external environment. really, the only thing they are extremely concerned about at home is inflation. romaine: the external environment right now, while we have signs of deteriorating data, have we reached an emergency level? does the fed need to do something fast in order to address this, or do they have the luxury of waiting may be
until the fall meeting ended that may be taking a little bit more significant action? dana: the fed characterized of the cut as insurance. if we have another cut, september is right around the corner, so the fed is getting on top of this. they are addressing the situation, the concerns in the external environment. so it is being aggressive. could go 50 or 75 basis points in one meeting, but they do not feel comfortable doing that, especially since the domestic environment is sound with a strong growth and a strong labor market. caroline: the ecb desperately tries to be aggressive with what little ammunition it has come promising stimulus in september. do you think germany could pull on its fiscal strings in any way? dana: that is a possibility. the concern is where. it is our expectation that
germany will apply fiscal stimulus, because it does not have control over the central bank, but the central bank, the ecb has been very aggressive, and it has to be because they are in a different position, especially relative to the u.s. joe: i remember during the euro crisis in 2011-2012, they would say, we cannot do anything, we cannot provide a bailout, we cannot do debt reduction, that is against the rules. even as at said that they -- that, they were sort of doing these bailouts, and in the end they could still figure out a way to help other countries. couldn't we see something like this where the german government continues to say, no fiscal stimulus, but then when you look at the balance they end up finding ways to spend more money to counteract the weakness? dana: we have signal this might be the end of austerity for germany, given the fact we are seeing the poor ratings,
especially with trade. but consumption is holding up. investment is holding up. and it is really manufacturing that is quite weak. i think that anything is possible at this point. caroline: it will all come down to china. dana peterson, good to have a with us. coming up, the u.s. department stores sinking to a 10 year low after macy's cuts their annual outlook. we will talk about the industry that may see more pain ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
than expected second call order underscored fears -- second quarter underscored fears. we go now to washington. sara, we have had you on the program a lot. you have sounded the alarm before about department stores and about some of the struggles they are going through. what was the specific issue with macy's this quarter? sarah: they basically said they had fashion misses in the sportswear department and a lot of seasonal inventory did not sell through. they had to take markdowns to clear the inventory and it really hurt profits. i think we keep seeing this from department stores, they try to launch innovation and it a try to expanded their online assortment, but at the end of the day if you do not have the right product, you will not score with customers. i think they continue to hang on with the baby boomers that haven't visited them for decades, but they are not building a next-generation of shoppers. joe: do you buy the product
thing, or is it something more structural, the same old retail stuff is so many companies are getting sucked down by? sarah: i do think it is a product thing. they have already a lot of solutions in other ways to shore up their business. it has been selling real estate, remodeling their stores. i think this is a place where it has had the least answers for investors on how it will do better. they see her, they appointed a new to merchant, but she is basically an macy's lifer. she has been there for over 30 years, so how will that change at what we see from this company? i think that is an area where they have work to do and where they have not provided answers. caroline: also, where they did not provide answers, was the impact of tariffs. some questioning how little it was in the previous quarter and how the forecast does not build in the 10% ramp up we are likely to see on december 15. how worrying is that for investors? shara: it is worrying because it
is a big question and they have offered concerning details about a previous round of tariffs. they talked about how they tried in the most recent quarter doing some selective price hikes on housewares and luggage, and they said it did not go well, that ultimately consumers did not have an appetite for the price hikes. i do not think that looks good for macy's as we get into these tariffs. romaine: talk about another story, walmart. not quite a department store. we will get their earnings. the expeditions are high. analysts saying they are expecting an increase in the forecast. what do you say? sarah: i expect strong sales growth, somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5% to 3%. i think that guidance is the thing to watch. walmart always updates guidance in the second quarter, so we know we will see new information. and i would say if we see any downward revisions from walmart tomorrow on any metric, it should be concerning for the entire sector, particularly if
it is trade related. walmart is in better position than anybody else to hold up in the tariffs storm, so if they see trouble in the horizon, that will be trouble across the board. joe: going bypass cycles, when and if there is a downturn, do people shop at walmart more, trading down to walmart with economic concerns? sarah: they do, that is a reason why it is well-positioned here . during the last recession was a time for strength, also a time where the off-price stores started to get steam, when people were looking at ross and t.j. maxx for bargains. so these events can push people to look for value, and that can bring a new consumers to walmart. caroline: how much are you paying attention to the data? retail sales from the u.s., will they hold up and is the consumer still there? sarah: i think the consumer is still there. consumer sentiment is a strong.
unemployment is low. even macy's, after reporting the lousy earnings, the ceo said we see a healthy consumer out there. we saw traffic increases also at starbucks and a chipotle, which we have not seen consistently in recent years. i think the consumer is out there if the retailers are executing well. caroline: sarah, thank you. it is time for smart talk with abigail doolittle, looking at timely topics through the charts with our top technicians. abigail: we have paul with us from bank of america, merrill lynch. there cannot be a better day, considering we had at that u.s. two-10 inversion. you have had great calls on rates. other folks were talking about the yield bouncing back higher. you were talking about a continued drop. >> the bond market rally has
been nothing but a raging bull market. we are still seeing that. the inversion today and the spread between the two year treasury yields and 10 year exhibits what has been happening in the bond markets. we have a chart going back years. this is a very important break here because it concerns the signal we got about two weeks ago. we got a signal where the white line crossed below the redline, suggesting that this would move lower. and indeed it has. so what does inversion of this really mean to the bond market and the global market? and how much further can it invert? abigail: how much further can it go? >> you go back over the last 20 years, there are levels around a 13-16, where it once bottomed out. another base at about -20. way back it was around -50-56. abigail: in 2007? >> yes.
but realistically we are only as zero. this could go as deep as 50 basis points. i think that will be a function of how slow or not slow the fed reacts to things going on. abigail: talk about what it means for the bond market. do you think if we continue to invert, will it come from the two year going higher or the 10 year going higher? >> i think it will come from the 10 year, there is more opportunity to make money, so i think the market is chasing that. what does it mean? i think we have three key takeaways. one, it says the s&p 500 is likely on borrowed time. what usually happens, there is a 5% to 10% correction. and a reaction. all the headlines today were mixed. then there is a potential last gasp for the bulls. which can lead to a new high in the market. that is questionable at this point. and then the recession numbers kick in. that would be the second take away.
seven of the last seven immersions, recessions followed. abigail: very good. quickly, take a look at both the currency chart and gold. >> one month forward. o'neill,rn by william this broke out above resistance, above this trendline -- 1, 2, 3. we had the rally around 7/10. we have the dip. we are going to 725. abigail: talk about gold. another rally. >> long-term chart. we are going back to the 1970's. i think that we have wave 1, 2, 3, 4. nice rounded base. break out the five-year highs. i think this could go as high as $2300 announced. abigail -- an counts. -- ounce.
caroline: we have numbers on cisco that disappointed in terms of their first quarter forecast, revenue coming in light, and many worrying that the china- u.s. tensions are hurting them when it comes to equipment. we heard the ceo say that he saw a slight macro shift in marriage in july. we will see how that unfolds in if there any clear risks shown by the business leader. asia had, and more earnings for you. tencent's comeback is taking longer than expected. we will bring in shery ahn. interesting time, particularly when they had a breakout game. but not enough to --
peacekeeper, it was a breakout hit for tencent, especially after last year, when they could not approve some of their games. this was huge, but unfortunately with ad sales it was not great, because they had other competitors charging less. they took a lot of those ad revenues that they wanted. so revenue growth disappointed, coming in at $12.7 billion. revenuehat in fact, growth has been trailing for tencent. as the company gets bigger, we are talking about margins and starting to trail slowly. but not enough when it came to that online ad revenue. other companies, they are really good on a short video ad inventories. caroline: also tictoc. joe: so these dominant, chinese internet players we have known about for a long time, whether
it is alibaba, or tencent, there is competition and their positions in the market are not, you know, they are not -- they are attacked. shery: as a real competitive environment, it is not surprising and that you have tencent becoming one of china's biggest tech investors. when they actually surprised on these results, they had one-off gains because they had investment in the ridesharing app. also investment inmate on. so it was better than expected yuan. in at 24.1 billion that was because of the gains from of estes. -- from investors. romaine: we will be getting numbers from alibaba. everybody wants to know what will we see? shery: surprisingly, given that we are seeing macroeconomic
pressures, analysts are saying they will do very well. we saw 22% growth in online retail sales. is thing is, when there macroeconomic pressure or rough times, people stay-at-home and expand digitally. end estimates-- and sp digitally. the estimates are they will add 38%. -- be at 38%. when we are depressed, we shop at home. romaine: there are three shows i watch every night, including jeopardy, and daybreak australia, and daybreak asia -- you can catch them tonight. caroline: a nice insight into your life. romaine: it is a charmed life. doolittle has been going through all of the details on this. abigail: we have insights in to what the biggest investors are doing. everybody wants to know about berkshire hathaway. relative to some of their
biggest positions, historically they have added to apple, bank of america, along with coca-cola. they also boosted their amazon bet by 11%. they did decrease wells fargo and kraft heinz. kraft heinz putting up that brutal first half not long ago. as for other big investors, three tagger management along -- alums have snagged stake in uber. carl icahn adding to his stake. and activist investors are bailey ship. and -- made some buys. and pershing square added to the berkshire hathaway position. caroline: great analysis. do not miss this tomorrow, jcpenney reporting second-quarter earnings before the bill. joe: i will be watching economic data, numbers for u.s. retail sales in july. romaine: mexico announces its rate decision tomorrow.