tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg August 15, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
meets the world of business. on the brief today, we start with kevin cirilli at the white house on what looks to be a winnowing field of democrats running for president. then we go to sir mcgregor on trade because china is sending us to mixed signals and then to wherehandra in london, jeremy corbyn seems to be willing to run for prime minister if he wants to. are we really lowering the democratic candidates? kevin: that is the hope. who will qualify for the debates in texas on september 12. their key thresholds that have to be met including polling data as well as fundraising data. it comes at a time when many voters are trying to decide precisely who will be at the top tier. if you look at the polls, it would suggest former vice
president joe biden as senator bernie sanders and elizabeth warren continued to hover as top-tier presidential candidates. all three of those folks keeping careful watch on senator kamala harris, a democrat from california, as well as others like beto o'rourke, julian castro, and others. it is a large field, but these thresholds coming up at the end of the month could winnow it. david: president trump maybe not having as easy of time as we thought with respect to the economy. let's go out to los angeles and sarah mcgregor. this morning, bright and early the chinese government said we would retaliate on the tariffs and then the foreign minister said not so much. it seems like they were contradicting themselves. sarah: we have heard a lot of contradictions from the trump administration but china usually has a clear message. today is different. it is no surprise that china will proceed with retaliation on
these tariffs on the goods that will be hit in december, although there has been a bit of a delay. china said we are going ahead, we will retaliate, we do not know what the targets are. they have hit things like farming goods and lower-level plane models. we will see what they come up with this time. at the same time they indicated they might be able to meet the administration part of the way on a deal. i do not think that will fly with the trump administration. we heard from peter navarro that the u.s. once everything they're asking for. we will see where it goes from here. david: some of those tariffs will go into effect on september 1. does the chinese government have any alternative but to do something. as you point out, they do not have anything. in the meantime, we are live from new york. ♪
apologize, we had some technical difficulties. we will go back to sarah mcgregor. when i was joined ask you is september 1, some of the tariffs go into effect, does china have any alternative but to have some response and they have enough things to put tariffs on to respond that way? sarah: absolutely. we know high-level officials from the u.s. and china plan to speak in the next couple of weeks before the tariffs take effect. the september 1 date for the tariffs, which seem to be going forward, there was a federal notice today about it, the options for china's retaliation are pretty wide. there are fewer targets in terms of tariffs, but we know in the past they blocked investment, had consumer boycotts, there are all sorts of other ways they can
make it harder for u.s. companies to do business in china, to send their goods to china. the unknown is scarier than the tariffs. david: exactly. it strikes me the tariffs, everybody knows what is going on. china may have ways in which they are retaliating and we do not know about it until after the fact. sarah: absolutely. tech companies are front and center of that. a big mantra of this trade war has been national security concerns over these tech issues. the ip theft and whatnot. if china makes life harder for u.s. tech companies, that could hit big names like apple and all sorts of companies on the west coast that are depending on china. china is a big market for their products and a place of production. a lot of options in china's corner and we have to wait and see what they choose to come up with. david: sarah mcgregor reporting from los angeles. let's go to london. emma chandra. jeremy corbyn has that he is
willing to serve as prime minister. that did not come as a surprise. is that news? emma: it would not come as a surprise. what he has done is come up with a new plan. in order to try to stop a no deal brexit, yes ring to other parties, some tory rebels suggest -- he has written to other parties suggesting he take over as a interim prime minister if they would back a no-confidence vote in boris johnson and he would take over as a time-limited national unity government, thereby delaying brexit while and general election could be called an sending things back to the british people to decide who they want to lead a government and whether or not what they want from brexit. possibilitycap this . the liberal democrats have said they will not go along. does jeremy corbyn have to get tories to go along with this plan? emma: he needed the liberal
democrats to say they would back him on this. there are a majority of mps in the british parliament who say the last thing they want is no deal brexit. more than that, a lot of them do not want jeremy corbyn to be prime minister. the leader of the liberal democrats said he was divisive, and the last person to build a temporary coalition in the u k parliament. then there were tory rebels and the conservative party because of the brexit and they say they will not support him either. it looks like this plan has fallen flat. david: thank you so much. i think we sent you over to try to straighten this out, so i think you have some more work to do. emma: i will try my best. david: i know you are. [laughter] david: let's go back to kevin cirilli at the white house. i'm trying to call a chart that illustrates something. we only said president trump's chances of reelection would depend on the economy.
the new york fed has a likelihood of election in the next 12 months. 12 months is before the election. it is 30%. the white house is starting to get nervous that the economy could turn around and become a negative for president trump rather than a positive? kevin: this has been on the minds of top economic advisers surrounding president trump for more than a year. it is why i am told by sources in and outside the white house, in part, some of the reasons president trump taken such an aggressive stance against jay powell. he has thought that in terms of the u.s. china trade talk, as president xi jinping tries to outlast the trump administration , that he would be able to try to get the fed chair in line to help him use that as a tool with trade. the second point i will make, yesterday on bloomberg radio when i spoke with mohamed el-erian, he said let's not talk ourselves into a recession, and he wrote it -- he noted there
are also european concerns. you and i both know that in terms of actually, whether a democrat or republican can navigate the global headwinds and chances of recession, it is not as strong and powerful as anyone would think. does the president have levers he can pull that can affect the economy substantially , other than meeting with jay powell at the fed? kevin: he can try to beat up on xi jinping of china. that has caused volatility. at the time, a lot of republicans urging the president, now more aggressively, to potentially redirect the trade negotiations, as it provides uncertainty not just to wall street and main street, but agriculture as well. david: kevin cirilli reporting from the white house. now let's find out what is going on in the markets.
buyers dippinge their toe back in the water. up .1% or more. this follows the worst day for the doubt of the year. have had&p 500, we three days of greater than 1% moves up or down. right now, a little bit of the stalemate. it will be interesting to see how it goes. supporting these gains, the fear index down slightly. let's take a look at that fit. -- that vix. investors have got more fearful as the vix has climbed to a lot of people do not look at the percentage, but up 31%. complacency out of the market. as for the big movers for the s&p 500, we have walmart trading higher. they beat and boosted their 20th straight quarter. alibaba also put up a solid quarter to find a slowdown there are seeing in china for the economy. .eneral electric down
on paper, worst day since 2008. on pace for the worst day since 1997 on reports of suspicious accounting. it will be interesting to see how that will unfold. tapestry having its worst day since 2001. case beta tried and they cut their outlook -- kate spade a drag and they cut their outlook. we have gold higher, up 7% on the month. gold is also a hedge against fed accommodation and the volatility started after july 31. this may suggest some investors think there could be a more accommodative town going forward. other havens are doing quite well in august. we have the yen rallying, bonds , realng, and utilities estate on pace for its best month since march. investors moving away from the riskier assets and moving toward havens. david: thanks so much abigail
david: thanks so much abigail doolittle. bonds continue to climb is yields fall, with the u.s. 30 year yield dipping below 2%. retail sales did terribly well. other economic indicators tell a similar story. we welcome tiffany wilding, pimco u.s. economist from newport beach, california. thank you for joining us. try to reconcile these things. it seems that the bond market is yelling in one direction. there are other indications, particularly retail sales, that seem to go the other way. me.any: thanks for having the conclusion i would draw is that retail sales were strong and it overestimates the underlying trend in the u.s. economy. there are factors in july that boosted the u.s. sales print ,ncluding amazon prime day which has resulted in broader promotions from amazon's competitors. you get a surge in july, but it is consumers pulling forward.
iny are purchasing things july they would have purchased in august or september. i think that, although it is a strong indication, i think it does overestimates the ultimate underlying trend in the u.s. economy. that is what the bond market is reflected. david: may be the positive side. bond yields are estimated to the low side. theynow the new york fed do the estimate of the probability of recession. it is above 30% right now. since 1967, every time it has been above 30%, we have had a recession. are you watching things like that? tiffany: absolutely. as you suggested, the yield curve has been a leading predictor of recession. ultimately, how we are interpreting it is the recession , and in the u.s. economy therefore the market is right to
price in the higher probability of recession. i mentioned there are certain sectors of the u.s. economy that are very weak. those sectors tend to be related to manufacturing and global trade. data out of europe and out of china also has been relatively poor. the question is does that weakness start to spill over into the other sectors of the u.s. economy that have been strong like the consumer. what is worrying markets more recently is we have started to see early indications of that. how that spills over is through labor markets. labor market momentum has started to slow. businesses first start to cut back hours and moderate the pace of job growth, and we already started to see that. we have not started to see separations or firing of workers pick up yet, but we are in those early stages of a slowdown that starts to concern you. david: if we do tip into recession in the next 12 months, if that were to happen, what
will have caused it? is traded up to do that on itself? on the other hand, is going up 25 basis points last december enough that jay powell would have cost at the way president trump seems to say? tiffany: it is a confluence of factors. outside of the trade tensions and outside of the u.s. federal reserve hiking interest rates, the global economy has been and was weak. that weakness does spill over to the u.s. economy. that is being exacerbated by some of these trade tensions, which are disruptive in the near term. it ultimately is exacerbated by the land effect of the higher -- the lagged effects of higher interest rates. interest rates have come back down dramatically, and that will provide economic support on a lagged basis starting at the
end of this year. it is a confluence of factors. what the fed is trying to do is mitigate the chances of contagion. when you are starting to see slowing, you see financial markets or credit markets behave badly. that precipitates a falloff in bank lending, which exacerbates the downturn. the fed is trying to manage financial conditions until we can get a boost from accommodation and lower interest rates at the beginning of the back half of this year. david: how large a role does sentiment play in all of this? we talked to mohamed el-erian yesterday and he warned we could be talking ourselves into a recession. this is what he said. mohamed: if you get a recession, it is one of three things. one is a self-fulfilling issue. we worry about the inversion of the curve, we do not realize it has to do with distortions, particularly from europe and policy, and then we get
ourselves in a self refilling cycle. david: are we in danger of that? all of us in the media are in danger of helping with that by talking about it so much. are we in danger of a self-fulfilling prophecy? tiffany: uncertainty plays a role in economic growth. one interesting thing is we have seen business uncertainty deteriorate this year. i have -- that is online with uncertainty around trade policy and tariffs and u.s.-china negotiation. on the back of that, consumer sentiment has remained relatively elevated. certainly, the consumer sector is holding things together. if that starts to do to rerate, we could see more -- to deteriorate, we could see prolonged weakness. the other thing i would say about the consumer is outside of sentiment, which can shift around. consumer balance sheets are strong.
this is one of the reasons we have been arguing although the probability of recession as high , maybe we do not get one over the next year or so. we have not seen consumer start to leverage up or credit card fueled consumption we have seen in the past before recession. we think consumers could buffer the downturn this time around, as opposed to exacerbate it. david: it feels like our policy has been in case of emergency, break glass and bring in the fed. is there anything that they can do to make this destructive -- this constructive? if they do a lot, couldn't make the markets more spooked? tiffany: the fed needs to respond to weakness in the u.s. economy. the fed looks at labor markets closely. it is starting to spillover clearly in labor markets. the fed, in order to keep the expansion going, they do need to
provide additional accommodations. we think they cut interest rates again in september and more in the back half of the year. it is totally appropriate. whether they are able to arrest the downturn, there is some question around that. ultimately, we think they will be able to. we think additional accommodation is completely appropriate. you weigh the benefits and costs of these things. when you look at the cost of higher inflation, inflation has been relatively subdued although it is picking up lately. i think the cost of higher inflation is relatively low. the other cost would be a buildup of financial sector imbalances with all of the uncertainty we are seeing, it is hard for me to believe you would get irrational exuberance that causes a bubble. david: that would be nice. tiffany wilding is tim: u.s. economist. we turn now to mark crumpton for first word news. israel says it will bar
democratic congresswoman gallant omar of minnesota and rashida tlaib of michigan from entering the country for a planned visit. critics of israel treatment of palestinians and they support a boycott of israel. president trump tweeted the congresswomen "hate israel and all jewish people." six european nations are willing to take the migrants granted -- stranded on a boat off of italy. the rescue ship has been stuck in the mediterranean for two ban imposed by italian deputy prime minister sa lvini. china is talking tough about trade and sounding as though compromise is possible. beijing warned it plans to retaliate for new tariffs scheduled to take place next month. china call the tariffs a violation of the accords set by
president trump and xi jinping. the chinese government says the leaders have kept communications going and hope there can be resolution based on mutual respect. president trump heads to new hampshire today to hold his latest keep america great rally in new hampshire. in trump lost new hampshire 2016 by fewer than 3000 votes. his campaign says he will appeal to voters in that state by pushing for more manufacturing jobs and touting steps he has taken toward battling the opioid epidemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. much. thanks so tomorrow, i speak with bank of america's chairman and ceo brian moynihan at 10:00 eastern time. this is bloomberg. ♪
of power." i'm david westin. time for the stock of the hour. walmart is rising 7% and on pace for its best day of the year. is in london.chand she knows walmart backwards and forwards. emma: i tried to. they had stronger-than-expected second-quarter sales boosting their outlook. let's go a chart which shows they put in their 20th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth. outperforming what is considered to be a difficult retail environment at the moment. what is interesting is better sales driven by higher tickets. people were spending more. what was interesting on the call is the cfo made comments regard to trade in terms saying consumer sentiment among walmart consumers have not been dented and the company has leveraged
its scale in order to keep prices down. that is not something many retailers can do. more than 50% of the revenue comes from grocery and that is a good insulator for them in the face of the trade war. most of those goods are sourced in north america. david: as a practical matter, they were problem with guns, right? emma: they do have a problem. given the shootings we have seen recently, the ceo saying today is up to congress to debate an assault weapon ban. david: thank you so much. up next, robin hood or willie sutton? we talked to the startup designed to help you pay for sports without paying for cable or satellite. this is bloomberg. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders
billions for the right to broadcast games, which for the most part are picked up by cable or satellite providers, which we pay for the privilege of watching them. but there may be a way around those subscription fees. broadcasters say it is more like theft and they have sued to shut it down. here are both sides of the coin with david goodfriend, founder of sports fans coalition, and charles schreger, nyu stern professor of marketing and the president of programming sales at hbo. welcome. let's start with you, david. this is your idea. explain, simply, if you can -- because most of us will not understand the intricacy -- what are you doing? g: i am used to talking else's story, but i guess i'm the story today. that is ok. right now today, the copyright act says on its face, a nonprofit or governmental entity may be transmitted -- make
return a broadcast entity. has been used by nonprofits in the past to transmit a local broadcast signals will everyone can get that free over the air signal. that was always the point. the only thing that lowcast does differently as we are locast does differently as we are not welocast does differently as are a nonprofit, but we do re-transmit over the internet. you have to be in the local market this year local broadcaster on locast. what we have found his people really cannot get a free over the air signal the way they are supposed to. they cut the cord and do not want to pay for cable anymore, and they think they can put up an antenna. all you have to do is look at the public comments on our site and people say, wow, for the first time i can get my public broadcast television station. or for the first time i can cut my court and get an over the air signal. that is not a big surprise, but let's stick with
the legal parts, charles. what is the legal argument that is against mr. goodfriend? he says it is providing the copyright act. charles: i think the courts will adjudicate whether that was the intent of the copyright law. i am not an attorney, but they will say it is subterfuge that in fact that was not the intention of the law. and what the courts do about that, i cannot say. i am not a judge or attorney. the one thing you know is that broadcasters are going to fight against this. this has happened once before with something called aireo. somewhat different technology. the ability to get a free television signal exists right now. it is cumbersome, inexpensive, and about 15% of u.s. television households get signals for free over the air using an antenna. but anything that will attack the integrity of a copyright, broadcasters are going to fight against. so they say if you read the
brief that the broadcasters have written, it does not sound idiotic. i'm sure that david understood. david: david would not call it idiotic. he is a lawyer. david, let's talk about what this means as a practical matter. traditionally, you get your money from advertising, so the more people who see it, the better. withtransmitted re-transmission, where over the air broadcasters at permission for the signals. is that what this is about because that would undermine the retransmission value? david g.: the number one thing i learned is that those preconceived notions about who stands where completely wrong because contrary to what my learned friend just said, there are broadcasters who like what we are doing. the big four networks that suit us clearly do not, but there are -- that suit as clearly do not. but there are smaller ones who
make contributions to locast and another is working with us to set up shop and we are on his tower in philadelphia. i am not making this up. these are facts that will come out in court, and we will show on the broadcast side, some who like it and some don't. the ones who like it are saying we are losing eyeballs to corner cutters and we need to reach new audiences. if i'm a real quickly also say on the cable and paid television side, plenty do not like what we are doing because they see us as someone helping facilitate cord cutting. to assume all broadcasters are on one side and all paid television companies are on the other. david: charles, that does not surprise me because cbs writes the check. i used to write for abc and i know what those checks look like for monday night football. that does not surprise me. as a practical matter, how does this confront the broadcaster or networks at a time they are competing with a netflix and an amazon prime? they need all the money they can
get given where we are going with streaming. charles: exactly. first of all, the amount of money we are talking about is substantial. as an example, i think the retransmission fees for cbs is 15% of their revenue, and it is a revenue source with no marginal cost. it is important for them. i am not suggesting it will go to zero, but it is expected to go up. david: david, let's talk a little law. they ask for a temporary injunction and restraining order against you. are you still running business? david g.: they have not asked for a tro or injunction and we are still up and running. we operated for 1.5 years without receiving a letter or angry phone call from any of these plaintiffs. they have waited a long, long time. i think the reason they waited so long and that they have not filed a tro is because they understand that we have a very solid legal arguments. i think one that will prevail that when you look at the statute, what we are doing is
allowed. now, i do think that in the course of this case, you are going to learn facts that they have not represented in their complaint. i look forward to having -- for having me back on to our response when they file it. i think there is a lot of evidence the court will find compelling, and if you look at the public's response, they want to say i want to be able to watch my local television and get local news, weather, sports and entertainment. when i cannot, locast is a good solution and we hope the public in that way, and we are proud of that. charles: having looked at locast , it is a wonderful solution and works, what it is a threat. if you want to talk about timing, let's talk about timing. cbs was negotiating its retransmission fees, and look at the timing a little bit. guess when it was solved? the opening day of the nfl september 5. if you are watching cbs news and on sat down at 1:00
september 8 and the ravens don't come on in baltimore, that is a problem. david: charles schreger, professor at nyu stern, and david goodfriend, sportsfans coalition founder and adjunct professor at georgetown law school. thank you. from bloomberg first word news, we going out to mark crumpton. mark: china does not have unlimited patience with the antigovernment protest in hong kong. that was the message from the chinese ambassador to the u.k. today. kong nation is at a critical moment, but we have a full trust and confidence on her administration to handle the situation. if the situation deteriorates further into unrest and uncontrollable by the government, the central government will involve the state body and watch. mark: protests have prompted officials in hong kong to slash
the growth forecast. they now say the city's economy will grow by 1%, at most, this year. modi used an independence day speech today to defend his decision to strip cashmere of its special status. about 7 million residents of the disputed region have entered an unprecedented security crackdown and communication blackout for an 11th day. pakistan and india bought two wars over the territory -- fought two wars over the territory. a tanker has been agreed to be released for allegedly carrying iranian oil to syria that would have violated european sanctions. the u.s. made a last-minute request that it be allowed to seize the ship, days after british forces detained the tanker and then iran seized the british flag ship near the strait of hormuz. melting ice.king warmer water and air are eating away at greenland, causing it to lose billions of tons of ice
daily put nasa wants to know the bigger culprit, if water is playing a bigger role, that could mean caesar rising faste than expected. -- that could mean seize our rising faster than expected. global news, 24 hours a day on-air on tictoc and twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david? david: thank you. coming up, u.s.-china trade relations were already complicated and today they are more so with different messages out of different parts of the chinese government. we are joined by carla hills, former united states trade representative to help us sort out. that is next and this is bloomberg. ♪
of power. i am david westin. carla hills served in two different president's cabinets, first under president ford and then under the first president bush. she is now the chair and ceo of hills and company. thank you for being with us on this rather important trade a. carla: thank you. it is a pleasure. david: i asked earlier today if we could fix the u.s. trade problem right away with china. would it take care of all the other issues that are percolating involving the global economy? this is what he said. >> it does not deal with the deeper impediments to growth. it is the general malaise in both china and europe. these are structural impediments to growth. david: is he right? large doesnt, how the u.s.-china trade dispute
loom over the global economy? carla: i think it generates a tremendous amount of uncertainty, and that puts an impediment on investors, people who make purchases and decisions, and we are seeing that. not the percentage of cause thef that will market, it is the uncertainty and looking forward, you want to know you have stability 10 years out before you put money on the table. david: one of the things i'm having difficulty with is you talk about uncertainty, but uncertainty about trade itself because on one hand, president trump says we will have tariffs on all remaining chinese imports and then say we will pull back, and then the chinese side today said we will retaliate. and then the ministry of foreign affairs said, no, no, we will negotiate. why is there this much confusion? is this typical for trade negotiation? carla: i don't think it is
typical, in my experience. we did not have uncertainty. sides there are strong voices that want to return to the table, find a solution, and have the two largest economies move forward so that the global economy and our respective economies flourish. it is -- the uncertainty, as i mentioned, is not a medicine that we need. david: explain how it worked when you were in the administration and george herbert walker bush. to what extent did the interest of the constituents, parts of the american people, did it have effects? for example, we have farmers very concerned about what is andg on with u.s., china, just a few minutes ago, president trump tweeted about the farmer saying are great farmers know how important it is to win on trade. they will be the big winners. it sounds like he is trying to reassure them. how might that put pressure on the negotiating saying, we
cannot be going on forever with this? carla: they already believe they should not go in forever with this. this is doing damage to our economy and leadership. who wants to sit down at the bargaining table and negotiate with us if they know 12 hours later or worry 12 hours later all the rules are going to change? we are going to imply tariffs. i think we have to change and have a plan. this was not the way it was in the so-called good old days. we tried to understand the politics on the others of the table. withied to meet regularly all of our constituents here, and we had more than 20 groups of people who were interested in trade where we would meet with them on a regular basis and keep them apprised. i think we moved along pretty well. david: and when you were in tried of -- when you were in charge of trade negotiations, did you try to keep economic
separate from geopolitics? with example, we heard president trump say maybe we could wrap that into a trade deal and then yesterday he linked it to what is going on in hong kong, saying millions of jobs are being lost in china to other non-tariff countries. carla: i am not a national security expert, so it would be, i think, dangerous for a trade asicial to try to use that the security. we need to be strong in our national security on the one hand, but also we need to have strong trade and open markets, and collaboration, and respect for our leadership. on the other hand, i think a strong economic platform means that we will have more strength to deal with our security issues. if we look weak and equivocal, i think that puts pressure on our ability to properly handle our
national security issues. looking at it as best we can from the chinese side, is there any incentive for president xi to resolve this before the election in november 2020?/ carla: i think there are good reasons economically and politically for both sides to want to resolve this issue. china's economy has a weakness that could be benefited by changing some of the roles we are complaining about, so that makes it a win-win situation. clearly, our economy would be better if we did not have the uncertainty of the tariffs. it is tragic what this is doing to our leadership that the uncertainty is making a difference of who is number one in leading on global issues. people do not trust us as much as they did in the past, and that is a problem. david: madam ambassador, let's turn to what i referred to with the u.s. nci, the successor to
nafta. that one got done in terms of negotiation. it has not been ratified. where does that fit into congress? one of the prospects this falls before the election year that we get implemented -- what are the prospects this fall before the election year that gets implemented? carla: i would not give it until this fall. congress comes back the first week of september and there are holidays sprinkled through the period until january 1. i think it will be challenging. there seem to be disagreements on labor, on enforcement, economics, on environment, and i think that these kinds of issues have to be resolved. speaker pelosi has said that until they are resolved, she is not going to move the agreement forward. -- idon't give it a lot of
don't have a lot of confidence for it to go through this year. now, next year into the election, i think it is also challenging. it may be something we have to address after the election. david: finally, let's talk more broadly about multilateral versus bilateral. president trump said he does not like multilateral agreements. from your experience, can he achieve these ambitious things? you have said in the past you sympathize with what he is trying to do with china to reform trade relationships. can he accomplish what he said out for himself, which is ambitious, by himself? carla: i think you can get more by collaboration with their allies. if i had advised him, i would have suggested joining hands with europe, canada, japan, and south korea, and to go to china and say, you agreed to national treatments and nondiscrimination when you join the wto in 2001. we want to the percentage caps off.
you do not suffer from those. we have this list of issues where you are discriminating against us and not treating us like your locals. i think it would have made a difference because we would have represented as a group, more than 60% of global gdp, and china needs to export. so we would have made a difference. on your earlier question of trade negotiations, you know, if i sit at a table with 10 people and party a puts something on the table they are willing to get or something party b is willing to give, and i want it, too, i do not have to pay for it. so as you run around the table and pute, f, something on the table becauseg they want something you are in favor of, but you don't have to give anything for that. so i think you get more, a broader trade agreement, and
then obviously, if it applies to a dozen parties, you are going to have much more opportunity. already we are seeing tremendous diversion of trade as a result of stepping out of the transpacific partnership because of all of those economies have free access that our entrepreneurs do not have. david: carla hills, thank you. always a joy to have you here. she is former u.s. trade representative. this is bloomberg.
david: this is balance of power on bloomberg television. i am david westin. justin trudeau already had a tight race for reelection, but now with two months to go, he has been found to violate ethics rules when he pressured his then attorney general to settle corruption charges against a prominent canadian company. to explain, we welcome our bloomberg reported.
thank you for joining us. explain to us what the allegation is about against him and how bad is this? >> essentially, the allegation is that prime minister trudeau tried to pressure his attorney general last year to seek an against,urt settlement in charges against a montreal-based engineering company. these are corruption charges based on dealings from this company had with the qaddafi government in libya 20 years ago. now, this company is facing charges in canada. trudeau was concerned that if it was found guilty, if the company was convicted of corruption charges, it would be damaging to the company and would result in job losses. that was his claim, and ethics watchdog, the canada's ethnic
watchdog, yesterday ruled that it was inappropriate action. particularly political motivations for seeking to pressure the attorney and found the actions that trudeau and his staff took to pressure the attorney general interest, and of contravene the conflict of interest act. this has been a scandal since the beginning of the year. it came to light at the beginning of the year. trudeau was expected to easily cruised to victory. popularnd still is very among certain groups in canada. he was expected to win easily before the scandal broke. now, with the election in october, it is a tossup, and the latest revelations certainly will undermine his ability to recover in the polls or if he
had been making a bit of a recovery recently, and that kind of undermines things. david: time is running short, thank you theophilos argitis. coming up, commodities edge. the show looks at the huge falling crop prices after the usda report.and tomorrow, my exclusive interview with bank of america ceo and chairman brian moynihan at 10:00 eastern time. sign up for the balance of power newsletter at bloomberg.com/politics to get the latest on global politics in your inbox every single day. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: gold shines and precious metal hits a six-year high as they seek haven in a volatile market. mcewen ways and. commodity plunges after the usda says farmers planted more than estimated. traders agree to report with some skepticism. and see change per new rules from the maritime organization will curb the amount of sulfur oxides vessels can admit. the ceo of international sea waves discuss how the rules affect her business.