tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg August 17, 2019 7:00am-8:00am EDT
♪ kailey: coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week. global markets are buffeted by a whirlwind of worry. >> i felt that she'll go up my spine. >> today could be carnage in the argentine markets. >> growth concerns across asia and europe. >> output has weekend. the export sector has suffered in the second quarter. >> disruptive disputes over trade and tariffs. >> they have issues they have to sort out. >> results reflect the degree of uncertainty farmers are facing in the midwest. >> cbs and viacom finally reunite.
another parade of earnings were ad revenues -- >> the focus is on the decline in online ad revenues. >> not a lot of great news lately. >> baseline does not suggest a session, but these factors, keep an eye on them. kailey: it is ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ kailey: hello and welcome. this is "bloomberg best." the review of the most important news and analysis from bloomberg television around the world. let's look at the top headlines. we begin with investors jolted by political shocks.
hong kong protesters forced the airport to close down. and in argentina, a result in primary reactions a set off a chaotic election. >> argentina is at the crossroads. there is a massive roadblock. his main rival, alberto, grabbed the momentum and came in 15 percentage points ahead in the poll. >> many analysts would say it is insurmountable. they like his policies. they are market oriented. fernandez, it is not clear what he would do with the imf.
today could be carnage in the argentine markets. >> the peso has plunged to a record low against the u.s. dollar. >> what happens in the next months, that is the big question. we have not seen the opposition candidate. it seems like they are both comfortable, maybe a little bit of chaos can help them toward the election. that is a dangerous game. we could be in a full on crisis if we don't have reassurances of what a government will look like under fernandez. >> there you have it. another day of losses for the s&p 500. second day of declines. >> the new bricks in the wall. argentina added. hong kong added to it. not to mention the saga of italy, trade, brexit. >> we think it is slowing growth that is winning the battle now.
>> standoff at hong kong's airport. protesters forcing a service outage for the second day. this as carrie lam says the city is in danger of sliding into chaos. >> they were climbing up the walls, using umbrellas to cover the security cameras. police officers arrived here. tried to dispel these crowds. they were able to retrieve the man protesters had tied down earlier. they allege he was a mainland public security officer. they tied him down. he was beaten up. finally police showed up. there were clashes between tourists, trying to climb over
and make it to their flight. >> we have heard from president trump tweeting china is mobilizing its troops to the hong kong border. what do we know about the beijing response? >> we have seen a hardening of the rhetoric out of beijing. we have heard from officials in in kong and macau affairs office saying they are seeing signs of terrorism. the question is whether this is an intimidation tactic or whether they are laying the groundwork for some sort of intervention in hong kong. >> u.s. tariffs on some chinese consumer goods have been postponed until mid-december. it is to avoid price increases for the holiday pricing season. >> it happened after the u.s. stock market opened. >> it looked like we were set
for another down day. u.s. trade representatives did something rare. they announced after the market opened, a move designed to try and cheer the market up a little bit. they would be separating september 1 tariff increases into two separate legs, with the biggest hit moved to december 15. that was for toys, laptops, smartphones. we know there are more talks happening in two weeks. the fact that they are talking is good news. they have an enormous issues they have to sort out. they could not sort them out a couple of weeks ago. i am not sure they are going to be resolved in a couple weeks. >> china's july industrial output posted the weakest growth in 17 >> for china, that means
they are going to have to drill off some of their domestic demand. numbers pointing to an ongoing slow down. part of that is slowing tariff sales. all that means china is going to have to support its own economy. >> the german economy shrank in the three months. trade tensions could have weighed in export heavy manufacturing sector. that is what we saw. the pressure on politicians to loosen the fiscal purse strings. >> they came in as expected. the export sector, a crucial part of the german economy, has suffered in the second quarter. that is piling on more pressure to the government to do something and terms of a fiscal stimulus. >> another recession warning is glaring. inverting for the first time
since 2007. this as the yield plunged to a record low as well. >> when you break through levels that have never been rogan before, that is an indicator there is a reach for yields. we might not see yields this high anytime soon. >> i saw the inversion hit the level it did in 2007. there was a chill going up up my spine. i have this reaction. i am sure a lot of the reaction is emotional. >> the market believes the fed is no longer preemptive. the midcycle adjustment is not
enough. they are only going to cut two or more times. they are signaling a recession, i kinda believe it. >> china's state council responded to china's plan to impose more tariffs on imports, saying it would violate and understand with china and they had no choice but to take necessary measures. then the ministry of foreign affairs said talks were ongoing and they hoped for a negotiated resolution. >> we have heard contradictions from the trump administration. china usually has a clear message. today was different. china will move forward with retaliation in these 10% tariffs on the goods that are coming and september and december. even though there has been a delay. china saying, we are going ahead. we don't know what the targets are. they have hit things like
farming goods. we will have to see what they come up with this time. they might be able to meet the administration part of the way in a deal. >> trade concerns driving me 10 year treasury below 1.5% since august. 30 year yields, record low, before 2%. >> how much further can we go with. >> we are in uncharted territory. there has been some technical analysts. we are looking at 1.9%. trendlines, suggesting that is a line in the sand. we will see if we get there. if markets are anxious, it may not take a lot. >> china vpowing to retaliate to looming tariffs. also pushing back on efforts to link the trade war with the terminal in hong kong. >> i don't think they will retaliate. if they did, we have the ultimate form of retaliation. there are very few jobs left in china.
>> mixed signals. hearing from trump china is desperate for a deal. you are hearing from the chinese side, despite retaliating, they are planning to send negotiators to washington in september to continue talks. mixed messages from both sides. the messages by trump, linking hong kong and trade, suggesting president xi meet with investors, not welcome. china has said repeatedly it thinks the u.s. is hoping ferment the unrest in hong kong. there is a lot going on. trump thinks he is going to have a phone call with president xi. it seems china is digging in for the long haul. kailey: still ahead as we review the week, john chambers talks
♪ kailey: this is "bloomberg best." let's continue our global tour of the week. starting with alibaba. >> alibaba us urged in new york after posting better than expected revenue. that is despite geopolitical headwinds. quarterly revenue rose 42%. >> the secular drivers are well understood. increasing digitization. that drives the core business. it grew at 26%. all of the commerce businesses, the company had 33% growth for the year. she made what really drove the she made those growth over the
top is their investments in local services. these things are growing at more than 100 sent. they have been spending a lot of money these investments. now it is coming down to returns for them. >> tencent reported second quarter revenue that missed estimates. while the chinese company beat expectations, online ad revenue grew worse than expected. what are investors focused on? it seems to be a mixed bag. >> the focus was really on decline around online ad revenue. we are starting to see it get hit by broader economic issues in china as well as competition.
what was interesting was where the company pointed out the slowdown in advertising ad sales buys. the real estate sector, not a surprise, given a string of economic data out of china. >> the world's largest crude oil producer will own a part of the biggest will refinery in the world. saudi aramco will buy a stake in what is estimated to be a $15 million deal. >> the company is ready for an ipo. the timing of the ipo will be determined by our shareholders or the owner of the company. >> you think of investing in the ipo, do you worry about the fact it is not diversified enough? or do you wait to see how they price the ipo? >> from the perspective of the ability to generate cash, it
throws off a huge amount of cash from oil production. the bigger question for the equity investors is how much can it produce in terms of a dividend for equity investors. we saw and the financial statements, this is a $20 billion special dividend paid to the government. post ipo, will it still be paying out that money to investors? or is this a one-off that has gone into the budget to help prop up the economy when they have been trying to boost spending? >> macy's big miss. the lowest we have seen the shares since 2010. >> what is worrying is that 10% tariffs that have been delayed,
they are not in the your forecast of macy's that they already downgraded. >> this is based on the fact they were struggling to sell clothes in the second quarter. the tariffs, we have other discouraging signals today. in a previous batch that affected houseware, furnishings, they tried selectively raising prices and it did not work. with the ceo said it was consumers do not have the appetite for these price increases. that looks worrisome. >> wal-mart setting a high bar for other u.s. retailers. that may sidestep concerns about the trump administration's tariffs. up more than 4%. >> are they trading down because they cannot shop at other stores?
we saw it in 2008. are we seeing a repetition? >> what we saw from walmart today, broad-based strength. an increase in traffic and basket. that means essentially people were buying more things per order. buying pricier things per order. that is a good sign this is just folks out there spending and enthusiastically as opposed to trading down. that is something we have to watch for. as these tariffs kick in. >> the world's biggest shipping group -- they realized one billion dollars in synergies faster than expected. give us a sense of how concerned
you are about global uncertainty for the rest of the year. >> i would like to say trade tensions have been manageable for us so far. global consumer demand grew 2% in the second quarter. they are way down, around 7% from china. goods coming to the u.s. from many other places. that has allowed us to manage the situation quite well. looking forward, we also read the papers and hear the news. there are a lot of uncertainties. the trade tensions between china and the u.s. will be resolved or not. that is why we believe it is right to reiterate our guidance for the year. >> they missed for the last quarter. they took it down and said they got a look at fundamental
restructuring. >> the results reflect the degree of uncertainty farmers are facing in the midwest. it is a challenging time with the trade uncertainty which has been compounded by the report we got this week. where we saw higher than expected acreage planted, yields, production, which are going to weigh in corn prices in the near to midterm. it makes a challenging backdrop going into 2020. ♪
kailey: you are watching" are best. you are watching "bloomberg best." what happened to the bond market? we have the 30 year that set a new record low and yields. any number of indicators suggesting there is something wrong. what caused this? >> it is largely outside the u.s. concerns around trade and manufacturing. you look around the world, there has not been a lot of great news. the brexit situation, which does not seem to settle down. china slowing down every the impact of the trade war across the regions. the need for companies to restructure their supply chains. they are spending money to move things.
that debate and more importantly, the debate about the debate. we have nothing to fear about a recession right now except for the fear of recession. that is what is going on. you are seeing people look ahead and say if trade war continues, if that does not get solved, it finally gets to the consumer confidence in the u.s.. business confidence has come down. they are more worried about what is going on around the world. >> what should the fed do? why don't you join that chorus. what should he be doing? >> one thing he does not need is one more piece of advice in this. he has been clear they are thinking about this in the growth periods of the 90's to make financial conditions a bit
more accommodative to accommodate the longest growth time. they don't see anything we do not see. what they should do next is watch the data. people are over reading the negative sides of what they see. they need to prolong and create accommodation. this is the longest recovery ever. keeping it going in the economy takes help. kailey: coming up, more of the week's compelling conversation. perspectives in the u.s. china trade war from the vice president of the philippines. and work for the fed as markets try to stave off a spiral that is downward. >> you no longer have the fed's ability to suppress financial
kailey: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i am kailey leinz. the push and pull on trade between u.s. and china continues this week, with headlines tweets and headlines driving market sentiment up and down on a nearly daily basis. meanwhile, businesses are trying to set long-term plans and maintain medical librium in an uncertain environment. john chambers, the former chairman and ceo of cisco, shared his perspective on the situation. john: what i tried to do is not look at the individual moves in the chess game from both sides
but look at the big picture. the big picture is the relationship between the u.s. and china, and i have been in china over 40 years. it has developed into win-lose with the u.s. losing. there is not a level playing field, this is how american companies are treated in china, . the industrial espionage is at an unacceptable level, and we have to get back to a better balance. i do agree that the u.s. had to address this. secondly, and however, it is in both countries' best interest that we get a resolution. i'm more optimistic than others that the resolution will curb, thethe question you ask is right way to ask it, it is not about delaying tariffs. it's can we get the resolution on the election property protection, a level playing field between the businesses, and the countries, and do it in a way where both countries win. i am probably more optimistic this will be resolved over the
next week. paul: one of those stories connected to this is these light chain, and how invent tech made hp equipment and is shifting its operations back to taiwan, so in that environment that you win-lose, theof thd, the ongoing battle with no end in sight, if you are diversifying your supply chain, doesn't make sense to go back to china? john: well, it will always make sense to be in china as long as it's a reasonably level playing field. they will be the second largest economy in the world and have a good shot at being number so it one, will be the u.s., china, and india, in my opinion. i think it creates opportunities for other countries throughout asia, such as india, such as vietnam, etc. to benefit from , the changes. so i look at who it might indirectly benefit. but to the endgame, in the end
it is in china's best interest , to have free trade on a global basis. i think we will move back toward that, but unfortunately, i think the current issues were necessary, then hopefully we will arrive at a win-win solution. kailey: another perspective on the trade war came from the philippines, a southeast asian nation that found itself caught in escalated tensions between the world's two largest economies. in our exclusive interview, the country was told it didn't needed to pick sides even as the current u.s. administration feuds with beijing. >> i don't believe that the fed is going to choose between the u.s. and china, in the sense that friendships with both countries will be beneficial to the philippines.
i understand why the new administration has chosen to be more friendly with china -- what i don't understand is why there is no clear line between giving up our sovereignty -- we can maintain economic relations with them, but there should be a very clear line. as far as protecting our territory is concerned and preserving our sovereignty. haslinda: some critics say this has been a lot of pushback when it comes to china and the south china sea -- why do you think that is the case? some others went as far as saying that the philippines is selling itself to china -- do you agree with that comment? obredo: yes, because of the way our administration is responding to threats to our territory.
kailey: what will a brief and inverted yield curve mean for global banks? in a bubble? with that piling up, these were among the topics francine lacqua tackled on thursday in an exclusive interview with the ck's vice philipp hildebrand.d philipp: the yield curve metals a great deal for banking no matter how you look at it. a wealth manager can be a way to diversify away from some of the risks of having a flat or inverted curve, but we are not going to see booming banks in an environment where we have the yield curve the way we have today. francine i look at it almost : weekly, but it just keeps on going up -- this is the value of negative yielding bonds, topping $16 trillion. are we in a bubble overall?
philip: there are reasons why the market is seeking safe haven , and it is where you go. i wouldn't say this is a bubble -- this is a consequence of, on the one hand, a cyclical slowdown which we are now delayed, risks of recession are increasing, but most importantly , it is also a consequence of the governmental policies, particularly the populist policies we've seen in so many countries -- the notion that this will not harm the global economy is simply a fallacy that is now revealing itself. populist economic policies lead to bad economic outcomes, and markets are expecting that. kailey: as global stocks plunged and yield curves inverted on wednesday, allianz's chief economic advisor in bloomberg and bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian spoke to chief
executives about the bigger economic picture behind the turmoil in the market. he said the federal reserve rate hike was a policy mistake that will have long-term implications. mohamed: the fed has lost credibility in the last nine months. it had to do a massive u-turn and the market is holding the fed hostage, asking for more and more, and at the same time not believing the fed can make much difference. you no longer have the ability to repress financial volatility, which leads to the third issue of what is next. the answer to all this is not the fed reducing interest rates, that is not going to help economic growth in europe or in more economic growth in china. the answer is more progrowth policies, and, unfortunately, that is unlikely to materialize, and that's the big concern looking forward. david: how worried are you about a recession?
i will put a graph up from the new york fed -- they are showing a chance at greater than 30%, the highest since 2007. since 1967 every time that number has done over 30%, we have had a recession. how worried should we be? mohamed: first, i have been worried about a recession in europe are many months. i think europe is approaching stall speed in which growth of just under 1% isn't enough. here, it is hard to trigger a recession based on how strong the household sector is. so if you get a recession, it is one of three things. one is a self-fulfilling issue. we worry about the inversion of the curve, we don't realize it has to do with distortions, particularly coming from europe and policy, and then we get ourselves in a self-fulfilling cycle. that's the first risk. the second risk is a policy mistake. the third risk is a market accident. these are risk factors -- it's not the baseline. the baseline doesn't address suggest recession. but these risk factors, keep an eye on them, because they are becoming more important. ♪
kailey: this is "bloomberg best." i am kailey leinz. let's resume our roundup of the businessop stories in and politics. italy seems to be getting closer to an early election that could reshape the country governing coalition. matt: matteo savini's bid for control of italy has started on the beach. the league leader and deputy prime minister is on the campaign trail after pulling the plug on the coalition government next week. he is calling for swift elections that would likely hand him a majority in parliament. election was a strategy that got planned? >> he is 100% ready for those elections and is in full
campaign mode. that was a marathon day for savini in sicily, he was talking to people, shaking hands, taking pictures, he wants to be a man of the people and for this election to take place quickly. i spoke to him at the beach and , and he told me hopefully we get an election in october, and then that investors have nothing to worry, there is no secret plan to leave the euro. [speaking foreign italian] translator: what we are discussing about, find wrong, and want to change, or rules on immigration and taxes. there is absolutely no plan to exit europe or the euro. matt: deputy prime minister savini will likely have to wait weeks in order to get a power grab in italy, senate leaders failed to agree on a date for a confidence vote that could bring down the populist coalition. maria: yesterday, italian
lawmakers were supposed to come up with a date for a confidence vote, the first step to bring an end to the coalition, but they cannot agree on a date, and it is looking like it will be august 20. after that, it comes down to the president of the italian republic to decide whether he wants to trigger an early election, which salvini would of course love, or actually try to find another majority seat in the italian parliament, and everyone here, except salvini, has an incentive to delay the vote. the opposition is very divided. the only one that wants an early election is matteo salvini. paul: in the long-awaited deal news, cbs has agreed to merge with viacom and $11.7 billion transaction. bridgestone first proposed this combination in 2016. what took it so long? >> management. who is going to run?
they had a couple of strong , they had their own agendas and visions, it took a while to work that out. both of them are now gone. then it was what is the price of this, and it should be tied in with slower growth. vonnie: you ended up striking a deal -- did you come down? to meet cbs? >> it was conducted by special committees and independent directors. what you need to focus on is the value creation potential. we will be a very significant partner with ads and distributors and huge content suppliers. very exciting growth strategy and people will see the material value that is here. shery: wework has applied for an
initial public offering with a net loss of $690 million in the first month of this year. it is testing appetite for the as it moves to the fall listing. what are they thinking in this market environment? are they afraid they will end up like uber back in may? >> they might be afraid. that is potentially why they rushed out this ipo -- it is something people knew was coming, but it seems like the date has been getting closer. this is an example of a company that loses a lot of money while having really fast growth. it has been growing quickly and expanding overseas, and yet its expenses are growing almost as quickly. it is one of these companies where it is not turning a profit , and it is warning investors that's what they should expect. guy: hong kong's government announcing a stimulus package and they say this economy will struggle to grow. 10 weeks of political protests taking a toll on the economy, putting the squeeze on businesses and tourism.
>> hong kong finance rick perry secretary paul chan announcing a $2.5 billion fiscal stimulus to try to boost the economy, this after they cut their growth forecast for hong kong from 0% to 1%. a country still struggling to grow amid political unrest, and says the measures are not related to the protest, the city waiving fees for small and medium-sized companies, also giving kindergarten and secondary school students handouts of $300 usd, and getting one-off electricity subsidies for households. the key question is are these measures going to be enough to prevent hong kong from entering to a technical recession as these protests continue for an 11th straight week, continuing to squeeze the business and tourism sectors? >> it's not just hong kong's economy in the doldrums.
rival singapore isn't faring much better. it is cutting its growth forecast this year to almost zero as the escalating trade war dampens the outlook. this is the second downgrade for in terms of gdp projections for the year. >> there's been a slew of that news but in the last few months exports have plunged for the first time since 2016 and for , and for now, they are not pressing the panic button, and they are not considering a policy meeting -- they will meet in october and their monetary policy remains unchanged. we have energy ministers telling us that he is quietly confident and they are not expecting a , recession -- at least now. last week. the minister said willthe government stimulate the economy, if need be. he warned that the economy is facing a different future and called on the citizens to prepare for that. >> a key measure of u.s. consumer prices unexpectedly
accelerated in july, signaling in a broad-based response signaling that inflation could , be following. is it reaffirming? does the fed care much for cpi? >> it is not the measure of inflation they focus on -- they focus on personal consumption expenditures. they tend to track together, so we had 2.2% year-over-year change in the core cpi, and that is above 2%. we want to see what happens with the fed measure, but it does tell you that inflation is maybe a little stronger. it means that the elusive 2% target that the fed has been going for for like a decade now seems to be finally in sight. vonnie: u.s. retail sales widen by the most in four months after . growth is secure.
on the one hand, we are seeing department stores fallout on earnings reports, and yet we can see in the data that consumers are spending. where are they spending? >> gains across a lot of different sectors. the only one that didn't look good was sporting-goods, hobbies, and books -- that's more about structural trends and buying toys online, more that than the state of the consumer . and we saw particular strength non-stores, particularly in e-commerce, which makes a lot of sense. the amazon prime day sale took place in july and a lot of retails held rival sales which became a rising tide. caroline: mexico's central bank is going to be cutting the rate to 8%. it is slowing inflation increase increasing slack. inflation is still above targets, but it has been coming down and clearly they are more worried about the global growth
story here. >> exactly. mexico is finally leaving a global trend, and the reality is, even with these cuts, the rates remain very high, and now the question is -- will the economy feel benefit? and the central bank plans to do cuts for the rest of the year. i think a lot of that depends on reforms in the coming days, and the central bank could get more worried if the prices start falling too much. >> ge plunged the most and 11 euros, and the bernie madoff whistleblower is taking aim at the company. the cash situation is far worse than described and now the chair has responded in a statement -- "ge will always take any allegation of financial
misconduct seriously, but this is market manipulation." brooke: they are betting on ge shares to slide so he clearly has the motivation but he has a financial interest at stake. the issues he raised are not particularly new if you've been paying close attention, so there are three key points in the first is that they are under reserving for long-term care and , and they are not properly accounting and are generally ok with the way they report their finances and are not giving enough detail, that there is some gap between how they get from one number to the next. matt: the numbers are mind-boggling, $74,000 per minute, $4.5 million an hour, $107 million a day. that is how quickly the fortune of the walton family, the family that owns walmart, has been growing in the past year. what is fueling the rich getting richer this year? >> well the most important thing
kailey: this is the g.r.r. function in the bloomberg. as we come in close, you can see it is evenly split. six sectors higher, utility and real estate, doing the best. i would like to point out that atrgy on bottom stands 28%, one sector in a bear market which is typically a worrisome signal. kailey: there are about 30,000
functions on the bloomberg, and we always enjoy showing you are favorites on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites. here's another function you will find useful, quic go. it will lead you to important context and fast insight into timely topics. here's a quick take from this week. >> income and growth inequality. >> income inequality. yellen: there is a very disturbing rise toward income inequality. >> income inequality. >> every region in the world has seen the income gap grow, which has helped you will populist political movements in places like italy, mexico, and the u.s. and while wider inequality is generally seen as a bad thing, there are debates about whether equalizing income actually helps the poor. this is your bloombergquint take bloomberg quick take on bloomberg inequality. income inequality is often incorrectly used as a catchall description for at related bills
like poverty in class division , and while the issues are undoubtedly intertwined, the term simply measures the gap between the rich and poor. the share of national wealth held by the richest citizens in many developed nations fell, but since the 1970's, it has been growing. in the u.s., the average income for the poorest household grew 12% from 2007 to 2016. meanwhile the wealthiest 5% saw their average income increase 31% to $375,088 per year. the u.s. ranks 39th most unequal among 157 nations. china has an even wider gap, ranking at number 29. resident xi jinping has dedicated billions of dollars to tackling the disparity, although it continues to be caused by rapid urbanization. rural chinese are just a third of their counterparts in cities. >> researchers have been able to to link rising inequalities some of those negative outcomes , which are are greater
instability, sluggish wage growth. >> it has even been thought to create longer commutes and a higher divorce rate, but lowering the gap does not necessarily help the poor. isone thing we d point out inequality is not necessarily a zero-sum game -- after the 2009 recession that really shrunk the stock portfolio, which reduced inequality, but in that time . poorer did not get richer. >> which is why they say -- >> people say the worries about rising inequality are overblown, that it can act as an incentive andnnovate and take risks produce wealth. >> there is cause for optimism -- despite widening inequality, more than one billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty. kailey: that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com, along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day.
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