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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  September 5, 2019 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT

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cited family tension. a reporter asked the prime minister if his own brother does not trust his brexit plan, why should the rest of the nation? p.m. johnson: you will have seen what jo have to say about our agenda. people disagree about the eu. but the way tonight the country, i'm afraid, is to get this thing done. that is the reality. mark: the prime minister also said he would " rather be dead in a ditch" than as for a delay of brexit. conti's-- the new coalition has a slim majority in parliament where conte's government faces massive
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confidence votes. dorian has weakened, making it a category two hurricane. that is still strong enough to cause damage along the coast of the carolinas where the storm is not close enough for hurricane force winds to hit land. forecasters say dorian's center is 50 miles south southeast of charleston, south carolina. in the bahamas, one estimate says damages from dorian made total $7 billion. at least 20 people were killed there. pope francis is in mozambique, where he praised the country for its courage in signing a landmark peace accord. the 15 year civil war which ended in 1992 killed in estimated one million people and devastated the former portuguese colony. cease-fire signed august 1 was the culmination of years of negotiations to end the fighting that has flared sporadically in the 27 years since. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton.
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this is bloomberg. shery: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. amanda: live in toronto, i'm amanda lang. welcome to "bloomberg markets." shery: here are the top stories we are following from around the world. boris johnson doubling down on his promise to deliver brexit. the u.k. prime minister telling an audience he would rather be dead than delay a split. a risk rally on the heels of fresh trade optimism. the u.s. and china agreed to meet for high-level talks early next month. and another sign of a lukewarm ipo market. wework set to target a public evaluation far below the levels
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indicated in recent funding rounds. quick check on the major averages. we have a little bit of a risk on appetite today. better news on the trade file, in the form of a meeting next month in washington between the u.s. and china. investors filing back into stocks. you have the broader s&p 500 tracking toward an all-time high, and we have the defensives the only group suffering today. real estate, utilities are weak. financial, industrial, tech, on the upside. tech,ou drill into the take a look at the semis. the moves are pretty significant. intel, up 3%. nvidia up 5%. what this shows me is just how volatile this group has been as it waits the uncertainty over trade. while we have an update for the stocks today, stay tuned. shery: also stay tuned for those
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implement numbers coming up tomorrow. today, we have a mixed economic picture when we got the private payroll numbers. the u.s. economy adding the most jobs in about four months, but jobless claims numbers little changed. the focus will be on friday's jobs numbers. we have already seen the unemployment rate at 3.7, a 50-year low. that has fueled consumption in the u.s. doing prettyumer strongly, but the focus now is on the numbers. as analysts expect, about 160,000 jobs being added in the month of august. amanda: possibly some more good economic news offsetting the disarray we are seeing in london. the show down over brexit got personal today as boris johnson's brother quit the government and apparent protest over the brexit strategy. while the house of lords continue to debate a bill to block a no brexit deal, johnson is still arguing for a snap general election.
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p.m. johnson: i hate being on about brexit, i don't want to go anymore, and i don't want an election at all, but i frankly cannot see any other way. the only way to get this thing done, to get this moving, is to make that decision. bloomberg news joins us now. it got personal, as we said. have heard from the prime minister about what he wants to have happen, but what is the expectation of what may happen? >> the prime minister has made clear he wants an election, expected the labour party to give him one. jeremy corbyn, the labor leader, has been saying for many months that he will like a new election. cultivatedbor has giving it to johnson on his timetable may not be the best thing. so they are resisting his bid for a new election, until
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johnson sees this new legislation that would prevent him from leaving without a deal, would force them to ask for an path.ion potentially this means there is no new election until after october 31. we will find out in the next few days. the government will try one more time to get an election through before parliament is suspended next week. a hard brexit is not out of the question. if johnson returns after the snap elections with a renewed mandate, he could crash out of the eu. what labor and all the opposition parties are dead set against. they want to ensure that this new legislation that would force the government to ask for an extension is in place before an election is held. some labor figures one that extension to reach record before
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an election is held, so there is disagreement over the point at which labor would agree on new elections even. so there is nothing clear about this. except for the fact that johnson has had a very bad week, a bad day at the office today, as you mentioned, his own brother, who supported a second referendum, has resigned at the worst possible time, saying there is a conflict between family loyalty and national interest. clearly, not a good bit of news for the prime minister. shery: it has been a roller coaster ride for him. therese raphael, thank you. and chinese officials have agreed to restart trade negotiations with the chinese vice premier set to visit washington in early october. those headlines helping to extend the rally in the u.s. equity markets with the s&p 500 gaining for the fifth time in succession, agent with when 1.5%
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of the all-time high. joining us now for what is to come is rufus yerxa of the national trade council. ambassador, great to have you back. let's talk about these upcoming talks in october. how certain are you that these talks will happen? the statement from the ustr was more cautious without any specific dates. rufus: good to be with you. we should not read too much into the fact that they are agreed to meet again. that people were questioning whether the chinese would agree to meet after the escalation of tariffs in august, but we have seen this before. we have seen various rounds of tariff escalation followed by an agreement to meet. think,n't mean, i don't that there will be any signs of real, substantial change in the positions of either party.
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making progress at the negotiating table will be very tough, and just one meeting does not change the picture. the markets are grasping for any news it can get right now. the best we can expect is they get back into talking, and maybe the escalation of tariffs that trump has announced for december 1 and october 15 would be put back, if the discussions of the table begins to be a little bit more meaningful. amanda: all along, president trump has said he is fighting the good fight. he tweeted today, for all the geniuses out there, many in other administrations have been taken to the cleaners by china. they want me to get together with the eu and others to go after chinese trade practices. fa very, treated unfairly on trade. maybe he's targeting the eu
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next. from a business point of view, businesses are saying they can put data on the harm, real layout numbers. where does the uncertainty end for businesses trying to grapple with how they behave in this context? certainly uncertainty continues, and if anything, is intensifying. you are starting to see that on the figures of new investment, corporate decisions being affected by the degree of uncertainty they have about where these tariffs are going to go, and whether we will have now a future fight with the europeans on something. that tweet from the president is really revealing. the fundamental flaw of his china strategy all along has been that he decided to go it alone, that he took on a lot of our other trading partners on issues like steel and aluminum,
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threatening auto tariffs, weakening the chances that these countries would align themselves more with the u.s. in a sort of vigorous attempt to affect chinese policy. basically, he is doubling down on the strategy, the go it alone thetegy on china, while at same time, maintaining a tense relationship with the europeans. he has not gotten a deal with the japanese yet. if you talk to people in asia about where these countries would go, if they were forced to choose between the u.s. and china, i don't think the answer is very comforting. meantime, we are seeing the repercussions of all of these trade tensions. gray and christmas saying u.s. companies have announced a cut of 10,480 positions because of trade difficulties. they have this monthly report. they never had that reason before. what are you hearing from your members when it comes to their business impact, and potentially
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how it impacts jobs? rufus: i just had a meeting with my business members this morning, and certainly, most of them were saying that this latest batch of new tariffs that when into effect september 1 are definitely impacting their bottom line. they are passing them on to -- withs much more reluctance, but clearly they have little choice about doing that. i even had one member tell me, someone was working on a home renovation project, and when they got the contract, the contractor put a line item in there for tariffs. $4000 added to the contract because of the cost of tariffs on the goods the contractor was buying. now we are seeing consumer goods
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being hit. walmart shoppers, people who may be inclined to be a part of the trump base, will start to see the impact of this. businesses have been feeling it for months, but they are now having to pass on more of the cost. amanda: we will leave it there, thank you for your thoughts, rufus yerxa. up, u.s. stocks have been rallying, bonds recorded their worst day in months. that as we talk markets with michael could you know. -- michael cuggino. this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪
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amanda: u.s. stocks are relevant today coming off of a raft of
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data that bolsters confidence in the american economy, and some easing of the trade tensions between the u.s. and china. for some analysis, we have from san francisco, michael cuggino. it, you don'td think the makings of a recession are necessarily emanating from inside america. that the fundamentals are good. but there are plenty of external risks going on. give me your portfolio positioning in the face of that. that is the $64,000 question. michael: we would argue the environment going forward is going to be different than the environment over the last five to 10 years with respect to one-dimensional bond equity moving. we would advocate more of a diversified miss, asset allocation, which is what we are known for. we would have a healthy dose of not only equities. the market for equities appears to be decent. we would also hold bonds, u.s. and non-us.
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we would also supplement that with commodity stocks, real estate exposure, precious metals , and non-us currency, like swiss franc. from our standpoint, doing this will provide you some comfort in terms of maintaining a will face, nest egg going forward, regardless of what happens. egg going forward, regardless of what happens. definitely, the negative factors are adding up on the other side of the ledger. it doesn't mean a recession is starting tomorrow. i would agree, the factors you look at now, recessions don't usually start. low interest rates, people working and spending, no inflation, etc. but things can change quickly. trade, weaker in growth globally, u.s. elections, uncertainty with the respect of the sustainability of the u.s. economy, those factors are
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adding up. it is prudent for investors to diversify. amanda: are there other markets that have been weak but have begun to be appealing? michael: we always do, but the u.s. remains a still attractive market. we are one of the few economies in the world having decent growth. we are still looking at gdp numbers probably solidly in the 2's at present. the interest-rate differential, u.s. debt versus the rest of the world, is still strong. the rest of the world is negative. u.s. assets are attractive, the dollar is strong. we are definitely there. as always, we are always looking for opportunities globally. a lot of times, we will play those through u.s. companies because that takes the currency issue off the table. don't see that condition changing anytime soon in a material way. so the u.s. still remains a decent place to invest right now. shery: despite the strong dollar, we see an interest in gold, given the low-interest rate environment.
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is that something you are looking at, too? a base: whether you have case for a growth period, or a recessionary pull back the reins kind of thing, gold is attractive on valuation. the run recently, is less attractive. of the value of an ounce gold versus a share of the s&p 500 is probably back to levels that we saw around the great recession of 2008. from a valuation standpoint, more room to run. gold has consolidated with the past six or seven years. standpoint,tion there has been a lot of credit, liquidity created, short-term inflation in the u.s. is negative. so you have positive nominal yields. when you factor in inflation, you are looking at a 30 year of 2%. that is athat is a positive envt
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for gold as well going forward. diversification, a little bit of a lack of can't it is an economic system would also be reasons why you would want to supplement a portfolio with gold, silver as well. we think it is smart for investors to have some of that exposure in the report olio. now seem tots right be factoring in a rate cut this month and potentially more to come. this chart showing that they have already factored in five rate cuts between now and january 2021. how closely are you watching tomorrow's payroll numbers, given how it could affect the decision of the fed? data point, soa we look at it, but we don't place any major reliance on any one data point. it is more of a big picture type of thing, taking into consideration all evidence. mentioned,e, as i there is a ledger of bad things out there that may impact u.s. growth, may already be, but by and large, the u.s. economy is still growing.
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it may be prudent for the fed to cut another 25 basis point in september. that will give them a 50 basis point move into months. that takes off the table that they went too far last december. we want to see what happens in be data dependent. that theyn the camp should be cutting 1%, 1.25 at this time, i don't see the need for it. i think that would be too aggressive on the cutting rate environment. but that is just one opinion. certainly, one that could happen, so we would not discount it. this is why you diversify. we cannot put the future going forward, so it's why you want to hedge your bets in a number of areas. get insightst, we from you to try to gauge what will happen. thank you, michael cuggino. tomorrow, tune in for the white house reaction to the jobs report. we will be live with the national economic director larry kudlow at 9:30 eastern. ipo will notwork's
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be the celebration that the office unicorn once foresaw, targeting valuation far below its last round. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
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ipo may not be the celebration at the start of hope for. be company is said to seeking a valuation of about $20 billion to $30 billion when it goes public, less than half the valuation that the unicorn secured from softbank just a few months ago. our senior reporter is here with us with the story. what happened? yft gosaw uber and l public earlier this year. the market saw where they came in. people now looking at wework, projecting ahead, looking at the performance, and maybe early feedback from investment was not
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what bankers were looking for. that feedback has been conveyed to the company, and now expectations have been lowered. amanda: one of the things that was striking is the perspective, some unusual elements to it. we learned some things about the interdependence of the company's founder, in terms of the businesses inside. does all of that play into the mix of reluctance to give it a big valuation? gillian: a few folks have gone on the record to talk about how corporate governance at the company is not what investors would like to see. the company try to rectify that yesterday, announced they were adding a field to the board after the ipo, and also that they had taken back some awards that they had given to their co-founder, who had sold the company, the trademark rights, when the company rebranded to we. shery: and it does not help that the ipo environment has not been great. gillian: people looking at companies like uber, which is
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trading below where it traded at. people are drawn a direct comparison. wework could be the second-biggest ipo this year. things are not looking too strong at the moment for it. amanda: great to have your analysis. thank you. users reminder, bloomberg can interact with all the charts that you see on the network on gtv . you can see recent charts, analysis, and you can save them for future reference. from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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must be an election so the british public can decide whether to leave the european union month or remain in the block for longer. yesterday, lawmakers rejected his bid to call an early election and made a moves to stop him from taking britain out of the eu on october 31. desantis isrnor ron expressing relief that hurricane dorian strack changed before hitting the state. he told reporters "we hoped for the best about how to prepare for the worst." the governor added that dorian was a close call for his state. >> we had a storm that had ferocity like which we have not really seen at 185 mile per hour winds, low barometric pressure. that was wreaking havoc. 100 miles, 100 20 miles, off florida's east coast. that was something that represent -- that are represented a serious threat to the state of florida. mark:


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