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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  September 12, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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30 minutes left in the trading day in europe. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's go to europe, starting with equities. not as much of a reaction to the ecb movement in equities as and bonds, but you see the stoxx 600 0.25%, ande dax up the euro trading stronger. almost a big figure move for the euro alone. we do have to figure in the incremental china announcements, apparently president trump thinking about offering an olive branch to china. the ecb announcing it is going to restart qe. we saw a big move in italian, spanish, portuguese, greek bonds. not so much in germany, according to dense cut -- according to danske. when it comes to italy, we are looking at the longest period of
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bond purchases in something like 88 months. the ecb can buy up to 1/3 of the country's debt. in the u.s., still about 3000 on the s&p. yields being moved higher by yields in europe. crude down 2.6%. the renminbi is being whipsawed a little bit as well. we were down to 7.05 and change a bit ago, and now back up to 7.07. ecb president mario draghi spoke after the rate and policy decision today. here are some of his thoughts from the news conference. mr. draghi: the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. we still think the probability of recession for the euro area is small, but it has gone up in view of the weakening economic outlook and the continued
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prominence of downside risk. governments with fiscal space should act in an effective and timely manner. we have a mandate. we pursue price stability, and we don't target exchange rates, period. vonnie: this was the big final one for mario draghi. he has another press conference in october, but this where's the -- this was the one where he let everything loose. with a reaction, we have marathon asset management ceo and chairman bruce richards. marathon now has $7.2 billion under management. it has been a good year so far, bruce. roofs: thank you, bonnie -- bruce: thank you, vonnie. vonnie: we are still looking at a bought a come of extra inflation by 2021, even with all of these measures. ruce: it is actually kind of
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sad. all this is doing is putting treasuries in europe and around the globe at further negative rates. it is doing nothing to stimulate aggregate demand. so look at germany, for instance, slipping into a recession, or at least zero growth. u.k. slowing as well. much of europe mired in what is a very slow economic environment. number three, the equity markets , in terms of aggregate demand and what it does to earnings, is not responding either. look at the dax trading at 13 multiple. we think that this is nothing more than further financial repression, a way of governments around the world able to borrow at negative rates to finance their big deficits and be a tax on savings. vonnie: so how do you think about corporate europe in that kind of environment? is it investable?
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these zombie companies that are getting more and more money for less and less interest, can they compete? bruce: all this does is create more of a debt bubble. at allows companies to borrow at very cheap rates, and it does nothing to stimulate demand. so we think it is a monetary trap that has been created, that is a very unhealthy environment. for the time being, the markets are stable. the markets will do well, but at some point, it creates this big hunger games. where does capital earn an attractive rate of return where you have trillions and trillions of treasuries and more by the month trading more negative returns? vonnie: overleveraged, unprofitable businesses. is there opportunity for you? bruce: we are not investing much in europe because of how overpriced both debt and equity
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markets are, based on where treasury markets are. having said that come of the biggest opportunity for us in europe is our continued activity -- having said that, the biggest opportunity for us in europe is in continued activity borrowing at the lowest financing rates at the world. meanwhile, take real estate at nonperforming lows from the banks in europe. we bought three packages over the summer, and we are in the process of buying another three between now and year-end. we are buying hundreds of millions, and we bought billions of these nonperforming loans, that results in this owning real estate finance. the lowest rates in the world. so the spread -- real estate financed at the lowest rates in the world. so the spread is unprecedented. theie: mario draghi said banks have their own problems.
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we are giving you the tiering. bruce: they should be trading at much higher premiums, but there yields are negative. so it is hard for them to earn an attractive rate of return. it is also hard for them to make aggregate loan demand isn't so great in europe because growth is stagnant. vonnie: what happens to the banking sector in europe, and wire you so confident? we are seeing trouble with banks in germany. bruce: europe is stable because the monetary policy that underlines the economies makes it stable. my confidence in europe is simply along the lines of we can , andeal estate properties offices are occupied. unemployment is lower. people need to live in multi family apartments and leave it -- and stay in hotels. again, financed at very low
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rates. are there corporate opportunities at this point in time? no. after brexit, we will see whether there is more opportunity in the u.k., but right now it is a waiting game, waiting to see that outcome. vonnie: it is interesting because you sold a bunch of assets in ireland, and also in britain and germany, and moving to the peripheral countries, right? italy and spain. bruce: italy, spain and portugal. we are staying away from greece and cyprus, and focusing acquisitions in spain, italy and portugal. very vibrant economies. spain is doing quite well, much better than most of the countries up north in terms of gdp growth. vonnie: hard brexit has been your base case. is it now? bruce: it is a very tough equation because if you take the man at his word, boris johnson, when asked a question in front of the press corps, responded, "i would
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rather be dead in a ditch then delay brexit." it is all going to come down to constitutional law. he has been blocked by the parliament from leaving without a deal, and yet, he's told the people, and the people voted that they want to leave, and he stands behind it. the question is, will he go crashing out with it? i think the one thing he may be able to change is that whole irish backstop to make it from a backstop to maybe a soft cushion to allow trade to flow, at least initially, until they could resolve that. vonnie: what would that look like, some kind of border in the sea? would europe agree to that? bruce: i don't think it would be a border in the sea or in the country initially. they will let goods flow, and there will be a soft stamp on it, and an expedited process for it, so there will be a softer process. i think that is behind-the-scenes what he is trying to negotiate. if he can negotiate that, i
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think he has greater confidence to say october 31, we are indeed leaving. until then, it is a waiting game. there is too much uncertainty to invest for us, but we stand ready based on outcomes. vonnie: that wouldn't be a hard brexit, then. let's just clarify that. bruce: it is a soft brexit, a hard brexit. you can call it whatever you want, but if they leave without real cooperation from parliament and without a substantial deal long-term, i would call that a hard brexit, but with some caveats or cushion to that. vonnie: if there is eventually a resolution or something this year, would you be interested in going back into britain? what would make britain attractive to you again? bruce: number one, if there is further distress that happens as a result of a brexit, we would be interested in much cheaper prices. alternatively, if the economic
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environment were clarified, it would make it investable again. vonnie: let's talk a little about the u.s. does what happened today change any equation for the fed? what does the fed do? where does u.s. growth and up here? bruce:here? bruce: the more that trillions and trillions trade negative, the more there is a hunger game going on around the world, then buy u.s. credit assets. high, leveraged loan, even emerging-market debt. there's enormous buying demand coming from around the globe because currency swap rates have also compressed a bit, making it more attractive to buy u.s. assets. all this does is feed further into a lower rate regime here in the u.s. and a further bid or demand for corporate credit and alternative credit that offers attractive rates of return. vonnie: should we be concerned about that? clearly, you wouldn't be so concerned about that. that would be your area. but should the rest of us be?
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bruce: i think there is reason for concern because some of these recession signs are starting to flush red -- starting to flash red. specifically, the 16% decline in u.s. and china trade despite toning down the rhetoric and agreeing to open up discussions again. the fact of the matter is trade is falling, and companies and countries are making adjustments as a result. number two, we saw pmi numbers 49.1%,, now below 50% at which is a flashing sign for recession. number three, the yield curve has turned negative. six out of the last six times when to's notes versus tenure treasuries in the three month versus 10 years turned negative, there has been a recession within a year and a half. finally, the fed's recessionary indicators are starting to trend up to a point where every time it's been at this point in the
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last five cycles, a recession has ensued within a year to a year and a half. so we think that the base case is 50-50 whether there is a recession or not, but the base case is a continued slowing from 3% gdp last year to 2% today to 1% next year. vonnie: you had said the cycle would turning 2020, but now that red flags are become more obvious, did you pull that forward a little bit? bruce: i think our timeframe is a year out. marathon is very engaged in being patient, waiting for a trigger point in the marketplace , which is much wider credit spreads, dollar trading below 70 and 80, and higher default rates to deploy what is our dry powder for buying distressed. discipline and patience is key. vonnie: let's talk about what might be that catalyst. we just had a downgrade of forward to junk -- of ford
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to junk. is that a harbinger? bruce: when is the last time you remove are one of the big three auto manufacturers in the u.s. fall from investment grade to junk? the remember that? correct.t's is bigger picture for bbb's 157 billion dollars in debt that just fell to junk. s&p still has it ig. when s&p moves it to junk as well, and post rating indices have it there, we think there's a lot of ig holders in mutual funds that have to sell, and the prices get even cheaper. motoryou can buy a ford credit 5-year note at around par, and that is not a bad deal for what we consider to be a strong bbb. vonnie: are you buying them? bruce: we are waiting for the next rating agency, and then we
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are buying them. the bigger picture is the bbb bubble. we wrote a white paper on this recently, about the proliferation of bbb issuance. when the fed lowered rates for the first time in 11 years over the summer, there is a proliferation in corporate bond issuance. there were 70 issuers that flooded the markets. does not simulate aggregate demand, but it corporate's further debt -- but debt ingates further the system. trillion, as $3.1 fourfold increase, and what is essentially a decade. it is unprecedented. vonnie: what sectors and what companies? thee: the super sector is number one most vulnerable on
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the ig companies. kraft and about heinz some others. bbb's,that $3.1 trillion $300 billion today has a ebit ratio that exceeds five. those bonds are going to b rated junk. so what do i think? i think there's another $300 billion almost guaranteed that when the economy really does soften, when earnings softened considerably, that will fall from ig to junk, presenting folks like marathon with a tremendous buying opportunity. mostlymostly -- vonnie: consumer department stores, or other areas, too? bruce: you look across the industry, but a lot of it is consumer-products. we mentioned maybe anheuser-busch, we mentioned
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heinz and others come on the last show, and that hasn't changed. bbb complex,in the who the most leveraged our, those are the names in our basket of shorts. vonnie: we saw a huge market move in argentina. curious as to what you did with that. in halfonds got cut from prices like $80 to $40. you've never had currencies dropped by more than $20. happens fromsition cri to fernandez, there will be a big opportunity for us to buy the best equities and credit in argentina. we are setting up an entity right now, and we are in the process of that. i can't talk about it because it
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is happening with us in our clients, to go into the marketplace and to buy what we consider to be the best equities, which we think will ,ake a 2% to 3% times return and debt we think will make a 50% to 75% return. vonnie: can you mention any of the companies in particular? bruce: i can't, because we are in the process. vonnie: you are waiting until the election even though we saw massive moves in the primaries? bruce: we are waiting now, but the biggest buy will happen between now and the election at your end. vonnie: what about emerging markets? bruce: emerging markets are doing really well. the emerging market bond index is up 11.4% year to date. high yield is up around 9%. it is outperforming the market by 500 basis points. why? although equities are soft in emerging markets, the s&p is up 20% year to date. meanwhile, emerging-market equities are up 1% to 2%.
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it is completely lacking, as are currencies. but why is debt performing so well in emerging markets? ratios are 40% ratios to 50%. very sound credit. half of your bonds in the emerging-market bond index are investment grade, so they will do very well. it is an opportunity with the trillions trading negative for investors around the world to buy sovereign debt at really attractive rates of return. vonnie: but if we see a global slowdown or these trade wars not re-feeding, but getting worse, does that impact negatively some of these emerging markets? bruce: we inky sovereigns and he debt story is much more solid. it is more of a growth and equity story that will weigh on the emerging markets. the reason why the smart money has been buying emerging markets, and we have been buying emerging markets all year long, is for that specific reason. the get credits with the least therage trading at the --
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debt credits with the least leverage trading at the highest yields in the world, that is the trade. vonnie: bruce richards, thank you for joining us today. bruce richards of marathon asset management. $7.2 billion and a nice return this year. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's get a check now on global markets. , tundra will explain -- emma chandra will explain. emma: we are seeing equities across the world largely in the green. the s&p 500 up some 0.3%. we have seen a bit of churn in the s&p as we've seen conflicting headlines about the trade war between the u.s. and china. conflicting news as to whether
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or not there will be some concessions made from the u.s. side. still, we are watching that in the markets. the s&p 500 up for the third straight day at the moment. the dax doing particularly well, up close to 0.4%. german comedies are more export oriented, so they would like those more positive trade headlines -- german companies are more export oriented, so they would like those more positive trade headlines. the ecb bringing back qe after nine months. the reaction in bonds has been a bit mixed following that announcement from mario draghi. i also wanted to draw your attention to oil. we were initially rising, but we have since fallen, now looking like we are headed for our third straight decline. down over three days some 5.3% after the international energy agency warned opec it faces a daunting surplus of crude in
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crude in 2020. this largely on fears of a global economic slowdown. let's get a few movers for you. it is consumer discretionary leading the way in the u.s. gap not doing as well. it was a leader, now a laggard. we've got a strategy meeting for gap at the moment. what will happen to cap post old -- to gapo gap post-old navy spinoff? they plaintiff expanded to china as well. vonnie: thank you for that. use gtv to catch up on your favorite carts and save for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. vonnie: europe finishing up trading. let's take a look at where stocks are. let's take a look at the map. broadly positive, t
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everywhere. ireland down, potentially on the google news. google paying a settlement to france. elsewhere in europe, a nice rally for many of the indices. the cac 40 up .5%. take a look at this. this is where the real action came today after mario draghi's policy announcement. the triple approach to policy in europe saw yields declined, particularly in italy, in spain, in portugal, in greece, where the bond buying will continue for many months. in italy, 88 months or something less. this according to dots bank -- to danske bank. huey starting again -- qe starting again. most of the governing council members continued -- decided it was necessary. it will continue.
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given that the ecb does not see inflation until 1.5% until beyond 2021, that could be a while. let's take a look at the euro, trading at 1.1040, well below 1.10 earlier on. and the dax up relatively modestly, mario draghi pointing to downside risks. the recession is not imminent that does not mean the probability has not gone up. this is the banks index, 47 banks in that index across europe. on the announcement, it dropped quite substantially. then we saw a bit of reaction, banks back to zero. good and bad news for banks. three means there'll be a variety of ways banks can engage in long-term lending. there is also the negative deposit rate. 10 basis points more negative
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that is down to -50 basis points in qe. all of that implementing by banks will cause profits to be difficult to attain. 500 up the u.s., the s&p .4%. the 10 year yield higher off the back of the rise in rates abroad. the tendency is toward strengthening and plenty of it on the china news. crude oil at 1.7%. look at stocks on the move in the u.s. lkq court has an activist investor. the stock up more than 8%. analysts are wary about the cloud performance, it is down
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5.4%. on the trade news, the metals index up 3.5% and the drug retail index on the opioid news down 3.8%. bank cuttingral interest rates tend more interest points below zero to -50 and announcing plans to open up on purchases. mario draghi speaking earlier about the risk. >> the risks around the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. these risks mainly pertained to the prolonged presence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism, and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. vonnie: we are joined by bloomberg's matt frankfurt for us. did mario draghi deliver more than market participants were looking for today?
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matt: in some ways he did. the quantitative easing or the asset purchase program he is reinstating is open-ended. he is going to buy bonds starting november 1 and could go on forever if we see a real continued japanification of europe. he only reinstated the program with 20 billion euros worth of purchases a month from november. economists were expecting 30 billion euros a month from october, although only for a year, and bloomberg intelligence was expecting 45 billion euros of bond purchases or other asset purchases a month from october. it looks like it was a little bit more dovish. now it looks more hawkish. investors are buying the euro now,elling the bund right pushing rates up in germany and
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strengthening the currency against the dollar. we have a number of other moves from mario draghi. he is lowering rates. the key rate down to -50 basis points. what the banks have to pay in terms of their excess reserves and also lowering the rates on tltro's, especially if they exceed the benchmark of lending. it does look like he is doing a lot. the question is is he doing everything it takes? the answer from the markets is now. vonnie: matt miller, thank you for covering the ecb meeting. today was the big one in terms of press conferences. on the others of the universe, trump administration officials considering an interim trade deal with china that would rollback tariffs for the first time. bloomberg has learned that in exchange china would make commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases. the talks are per luminary, and
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president trump -- the talks are preliminary, and president trump has yet to sign off on the idea. u.s. and chinese negotiators will be resuming trade talks in the coming weeks. we are joined by bloombergs chief content officer, marty schenker. equities did not react tremendously to this news, but it seems to be the type of breakthrough that could lead to a deal. marty: at least an interim deal. we have five people who confirmed this is under discussion despite some reports of an and ms. -- of an administration official denying it, we are confident the story is accurate. the way this trait issue is involving the white house, one step forward, two steps back. it resides with president donald trump. does he want to get a deal done? all he has to say is yes get it done, and it probably would be .oo
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vonnie: what is the incentive? will it take tonight presidential debate? marty: i do not think the debates will have any impact in terms of what donald trump thinks in terms of cutting a deal with china. what is more important is how the market and economies react to the trade war. the economy will be central to his reelection. he will try and campaign on it. if he feels the economy is suffering from this trade deal or the impasse over a trade deal, i think it is quite likely there would be a great incentive for him to figure out a way out. vonnie: when would be good in terms of timing for an announcement? if we are just waiting for president trump to decide, when are we anticipating the china talks could happen? marty: we know there are at least a secondary level talks happening in washington in the coming weeks. the other side,
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what china needs in terms of keeping its economy from continuing to slow. there is a convergence of forces. on the trump side, it is most likely he will use a deal to his greatest political advantage. that would be closer to the election date of november of next year. it is clear we do get some market reaction when there is a china headline we can believe goo. so with today's headline then in the past. i think the markets are beginning to realize there are incremental signs of progress and then things go south and they are waiting for more definitive direction from the white house on whether or not they want to get a deal done. us theredvisors told would need to be movement on china on intellectual property. is there any reason to believe china has changed?
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we already knew china was trying to separate the national security issue from the trade and purchases issue. marty: and there is also the issue of huawei, which is central to the issue of intellectual property. it is all a mix of different things. there is a rich history of china agreeing to things and then not following through. the real issue will be guarantees. it is fine of china says yes, we will agree to more stringent enforcement of intellectual property, but how do you guarantee that? that is one of the biggest tumbling blocks denny deal. vonnie: -- stumbling blocks to any deal. vonnie: european carmakers rally. it may not have been the obvious reaction. tariffs might be the next thing. -- tariffs on europe. marty: that is right. vonnie: marty schenker, chief content officer at bloomberg, thank you.
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let's check where european stocks have settled. you see marginal gains. the ftse 100 up .1%. the dax and the cac 40 up .4%. it was in european bonds where we saw major movement, however not in german bonds. the 10 year german yield -52 basis points. italy, spain, and portugal. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. t boone pickens had enough careers for a half a dozen people. his reputation as a corporate raider, billionaire investor,
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and a corporate pitch man for wind and natural gas. usombergs alix steel joins with a look back at team boone pickens's legacy. alix: i am joined by the chairman and ceo of con mental researchers joining us in oklahoma. i am sorry for your loss. i know you and t. boone were close friends. what is the biggest thing you remember about your relationship? boone, butwill miss he had a life to celebrate. as you said, he was involved in so many things. he is a great oklahoman. he exemplifies the very thing that i got involved in this industry for. that was the legacy of giving and generosity buys so many very
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highly successful people. money and then for great causes they give that money up. boone did that all through his life. he will be remembered for that and what he has done, particularly with the schools he loved. that is oklahoma state university. alix: what is so interesting his career. how was that. when you would get together and talk about your businesses, what did you notice about the transitions and how he thought of energy? about all ofed those things and it always came back to oil. i think that was his true belief. he got involved in wind and
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renewables and a lot of other things as well. i do not think he saw coming what happened with the horizontal drilling. the abundance it created with natural gas, crude oil, and all of the fossil fuels. he was a little bit ahead of his time in predicting we should be on renewables and wind and all of that kind of stuff. alix: when he was talking a lot about peak oil and fracking change that conversation. i feel like that was exemplified reported u.s. ia asd udi arabia in oil production in june. is that going to be the future or should you and i be talking about wind and solar more seriously? harold: the abundance of energy that has come about in the u.s. thathorizontal drilling -- is the future.
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boone would agree with that. he came around quickly. originallyg investor and we did our ipo and made a lot of money with the stock. got on board with horizontal drilling and the abundance that it created in this country. people that lot of we could produce more than saudi arabia. we began predicting that as far back as 2011. i remembered that everyone would say you guys are crazy, now look at the numbers we are getting. there is another conversation in the oil market that isthere is n the oil market that is similar. has u.s. shale production
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peaked? the neighbors point to things like interference when you drill wells too close to each other. uncompleted wells will run out. the best acreage has already drilled. that puts a damper on growth in the u.s. harold: the truth of the matter is the eagle furred has growth and certainly the permian has growth. the rate of growth by companies have been squelched somewhat by the market. markets are not paying for a big rate of growth. they would like to see us meet demand and not exceed demand, particularly with oil. as has happened with natural gas. the cap away from it and that is what has happened with natural gas. people are not drilling a lot of gas wells, and they should not be good it is the same thing with curtailing the amount of drilling for oil in the country.
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slow it down. you do not have to be 25% a year. ands go back to 10% growth meet demand and not exceed demand. alix: nevertheless, to be a slave to what investors want in capital market is one thing. want in capital market is one thing. why don't you take continental private? harold: we have to pay attention to the public market. we are private companies. you cannot wing it on your own. working for the shareholders and being aligned with shareholders, i think continental is the best example of that. joints what we work for we are -- that is what we work for. we are trying to do the best we can for shareholders with our company. alix: is there any circumstance where you would consider taking continental private?
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harold: i did not understand your question. alix: is there any situation you would consider taking continental private? harold: we would be more apt to do that than any other public company because we own the majority of the company. that is not our intent. our intent is if it is a good bargain we should be buying the stock back. basically doing it with free cash flows. we have two things we are trying to accomplish, and that is to play down debt as well as if it is a bargain, we will buy the stock back. only if it is. alix: a lot of your peers have .ad a tough time, even today jim hackett had to declare bankruptcy. you've also had consolidation,
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under dea, what do you see? harold: there is consolidation going on. all of the money from the private equities, their model was to flip it to somebody else. they were big competition and the plays we did and developed. anyway, that model is broken. the private equities are incredible and some of the public that were not in the best place and all to mesa is an example -- alta mesas an example. mesa is an
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example. alix: i want to end on demand. i know you were at the white house. i want to get any insights on a u.s.-china trade deal. is the terror prohibiting any kind of buying? give me a sense on the international demand scale. harold: international demand is good. our ability to get oil to the gulf coast and for the international market, that is market, that isg in the what we are doing in the u.s.. anyway, we are supporting the president today with his negotiations with trade. we would like to see progress made. alix: it is always a great pleasure to talk to you. thank you so much for joining me. harold hamm, chairman and ceo of continental resources. harold: thank you. vonnie: thank to alix steel. a lovely remembrance to t. boone pickens. don't forget to join alix steel for "commodities edge" at 1:00 eastern time. up next, first-quarter earnings and a big departure has seen oracle sales slide. that is our stock of the hour.
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vonnie: software giant oracle shares on paste for the worst since last year. emma: let's start with the big departure oracle announced. the co-ceo would be taking a leave of absence for an unspecified health reasons. they came earlier than had been anticipated. bloomberg understands the company has been grappling for more than a year about whether to make health problems public or not. we also understand that a sela coat ceo along with the chairman and founder larry ellison will take over some of his responsibilities, including overseeing sales. what we learn from the first
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quarter results is that sales are still sluggish. they came in lower than had been timad. we look at for your revenue growth over the past few years. it has been sluggish. total sales hovering around $40 billion for much of the past few years. analysts say this earnings report shows that sales growth remains elusive. he also says his departure represents some execution rest. the key is you facing -- the key issue facing oracle is the shift to the cloud. sales growth coming in pretty much flat. of course the company rather blind-sided by the strength of the competition from the like of amazon web services, from microsoft, and from ibm. that is your stock of the hour. vonnie: coming up, "balance of power." david wtin will be speaking about fund -- a potential financial transaction.
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transaction. mario draghi said early on there was no need for a vote on the question of resumption of qe, now we are learning he had plenty of dissension on the ranks, among those dissenting, france, germany, the netherlands, estonia, austria. these were governors on the ecb that did not want the resumption of qe. we very much got the resumption of qe at we will see how that plays out at the next meeting in beyond when christine lagarde takes over her position. you've been watching "bloomberg markets." is next.of power" this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business.
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on the brief today, michael the new york on reports trump administration may be considering a cease-fire in the u.s. china trade war. from frankfurt, matt miller on mario draghi in the ecb pulling out the financial stops. and from houston, kevin cirilli on the democratic debate. michael, we had this bloomberg report a short time ago that they were considering an interim agreement. michael: it is something we talked about on daybreak this morning, the idea that maybe the administraon is seng political damage from the economy slowing, particularly in heavily exporting states and it is more willing to do something. the idea of being the administration would supposedly rollback tariffs, i do not know if it is existing tariffs or the threat of tariffs, in exchange chinese commitment to buy agricultural products and

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