tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg September 20, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT
10:00 in new london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. i'm romaine bostick, infra vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. ."is is "bloomberg markets the s&p 500 just off of its all-time highs. you are seeing the treasury market active as well. if you blink, you would miss a five day rally here in treasuries basically across the curve. the two year, the 10 year, and the 30 year. this is the longest winning streak for that bond rally going back to the eight day run at the beginning of august. volatility subdued. the vix index below 14, around the lowest range of where we've
been on the year. a lot of traders saying this could be a good time to buy vol given some of the structural issues. keeping a my on emerging markets, the msci -- keeping an eye on emerging markets, the msci has swung back and forth, now up about 0.4%. guy: the big story out of europe over the last five days, actually as well out of the united states, is that stocks have gone nowhere in a hurry. the stoxx 600 is just up 0.3% for the week. today a little less quiet on the volume front. this is the average volume at highs. today is a mess of expiring of options. the blue bars here are the average volume you see throughout the day during the european equity market session. the white lines are the actual volume today. as you can see come a big spike around 10:00 when those expiry's came through.
when we get the close and a little while, we will see significantly higher volume. we are getting big volume today, but very little sense of direction from european equities. let me show you the numbers and give you an idea of what we see in europe today. the moves today have been broadly positive, up by about 0.3%. german ten-year, -52. the big news out of germany today, package has come out of the german government. there was some distant hope this would start a fiscal program from the german government. angela merkel pouring a lot of cold water on that. fiscally neutral from the germans. you were mentioning emerging markets. on thea today, up by 5% market. a huge corporate tax cut coming through from the modi government , and that is the reaction you
get, up i 5% -- up by 5%. romaine: let's turn to oil. it has been a wild week, and the hunt for fuel is on. saudi arabia seeking to buy superlight oil condensate after that attack on its oil fields. blaming iran for those attacks. the iran foreign warned of retaliation if any of these countries engage. >> we do not want to engage in a military confrontation. we believe a military confrontation based on deception is awful. it will a lot of casualties. but we won't blink. nowine: joining us right from saudi arabia is yousef gamal el-din, the "bloomberg east" coanchor.
what are you seeing? veryf: we are part of a select group that has been allowed access, and we've been at an oil field early in the day were some of the cruise missiles hit, and now we've moved to the crude oil processing center, which is the largest of its kind in the world, so it is really hm -- really a gem in the crowned of the global oil infrastructure. notice the puncture marks on the outer skin of the spherical tank. also, how there is a group of already at are effort for recovery for the facility. they are working around the clock to try and get these machines and the infrastructure back online.
it is not just the reputation of these individuals. reputationingdom's as a reliable energy subscriber -- reliable energy provider. 18 drones, a swarm of drones, came in just a week ago in the early hours of for a clock a.m. and hit precise targets like the one behind me -- early hours of 4:00 a.m. and hit precise targets like the one behind me. guy: you get the sense that the saudis are upping their defense programs so that this doesn't happen again? yousef: there's no indication of that. financespoke to the minister, he made it clear that if more spending would be needed for defense, that that would happen. this is the kind of security you would expect at any major energy infrastructure location. a very wide perimeter of military, police. for us going through these areas
, under very tight control and surveillance. you, if you can join me for a minute on the ground, that they have been able to carve out, and again, this shows you the shell and the kind of impact come the strength and the size of some of these missiles that were inbound about a week ago. it really raises the bigger question, and we spoken about this, what kind of coordinated response may we get from the international community? how much appetite is there to do something against this? guy: thank you very much indeed. yousef gamal el-din joining us qaiq, where we saw that strike a week ago. romaine: absolutely fascinating pictures there. let's turn now to another big story we had this week, and that is the new york fed and these
repo operations. completed another today, the fourth in as many days, amid mounting signs of investor appetite for future funding levels. former new york fed president bill dudley writes, "get a grip. the incident is not a harbinger of deeper market problems or a larger crisis. rather, it provides a useful signal for the fed which has been seeking the right level of reserves for smooth functioning of financial markets." ,e are joined by michael spence a general atlantic senior advisor and nobel laureate. let's start with the fed, and i guess we can start with bill dudley's column, where he basically says outright that the fed has it under control. if they have it under control, why do we have that disk location -- that dislocation on monday and tuesday? michael: it is very hard to know, but if you look back over
history, we get these crunches in the financial system. the fed has demonstrated yesterday and on other occasions a capacity to deal with it. some of them were more severe than others, but i think dudley is basically right. they've got lots of challenges in central banks these days. they don't know where inflation is going, the relationship between inflation and unemployment seems to have completely changed, etc. but on this front, i thing they know what they are doing. romaine: when you consider the increase in treasury issuance we've had, the expectations going forward, and the general routine funding issues you have at the end of the quarter and the year, do using the fed is prepared for that? michael: i do. i haven't seen any evidence they are not. this is the kind of core confidence that the fed and other central bank have. they are responsible for making sure the financial markets don't lock up. i think the evidence is they are
pretty good at it. guy: professor, let's talk about that a little more. the fed chair a wily go talked about the fact he was walking across a darkened room -- fed chair a while ago talked about the fact he was walking across a darkened room. i guess you could apply the same story to the plumbing as well. we live in a different world now. there are different regulatory requirements. banks hold a lot more assets for regulatory requirements. the fed has been tricking its balance sheet, but we still live in a world of much more elevated balance sheets from a series of central banks around the world. to the central banks really know what is going on? there's no precedent for where we are. there is no map. there is no textbook in understanding where the right balance is. i would have thought, given that, the potential for a little more volatility in these kind of situations is there. michael: i think that is right. you are right in citing the
things that have changed structurally. intermediaries have been taken out of markets. the regulatory activity that used to be there and were part of the liquidity provision structure. the federale that reserve or another central bank would be feeling a little lost in the sense of not knowing , butly what is going on what i was trying to say to , unless-- to romaine they just get caught flat-footed, they have the tools to react. they may not know everything that is going on, but they can certainly identify a funding problem when they see it, or some problem in the overnight flows of funds. i think they have the tools to react to it. i think that is what bill dudley was trying to say. guy: i think that probably is what he was trying to say as well, but they've got to be alert to the issues and very dynamic in terms of their response. just one final, quick question.
do you think the u.s. economy needs further rate cuts from here? michael: i'm not a central banker for sure, but i am very worried about a period in which we have very low interest rates for such a long time because it breeds a kind of state of mind that leads to leveraging up and a kind of vulnerability. so i acknowledge, as i said a minute ago, that the fed is operating in some uncharted territory of macroeconomic relationships that seem to have shifted for reasons that are not completely understood, so i am course andf changing trying to prop up the economy in the short run in response to global economic conditions by lowering interest rates. i think the fed ought to hand the ball to the fiscal authorities and others, and the
reasons for that are basically i don't want central banks responding to much to markets -- responding too much to markets and not enough to economies. even though we are slowing down a bit, for obvious reasons having to do with global headwinds and the trade war, we don't need a big stimulus right now. so i am not a fan of this. romaine: all right, professor spence. we are going to have more with you after the break. that is professor spence of the nyu stern school of economics, general atlantic senior advisor, as well. let's get a check on the bloomberg first word news. here with all of that, ritika gupta. ritika: from sydney to paris, students skip school and walked off jobs to demand action on climate change. meanwhile, and germany, chancellor angela merkel's
coalition has agreed on a landmark package to cut carbon dioxide emissions. that eases tensions that have threatened her fragile government and give merkel something to showcase at the united nations conference next week. the pentagon will offer a number of military options on iran to president trump today. they include a list of potential airstrike targets inside the country. according to the associated press, military leaders were also warned that taking action against -- military leaders will also warned the president that taking action against iran could lead to war. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. a lot of foreign leaders in the u.s. this week. president trump meeting with the
♪ romaine: live from new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's check those markets out right now. here with the details, emma chandra. emma: another day in the green for global equities. the rest of the u.s. following the european counterparts. the s&p up some 0.2%, headed for its fourth weekly gain. also look to be taking a run at its record high. that closing high set in july
earlier this year. we are about 10, 12 points away from that. also looking at oil rising. let's switch of the board because we should be able to show you how oil is performing on a weekly basis, headed for its best week since june. this as tension in the middle east remains elevated, and we are seeing flooding in texas. some argue we should be looking at a higher gain for oil given the severity of those attacks in saudi arabia, but it seems the trade war perhaps still waiting pretty heavily. let's look at a few movers for you. we should be seeing apple higher today as the iphone 11 hit shelves. preorders suggest falling demand. its worstng, having day in months as they reached a fireillion settlement for
s, much higher than expected. emma chandra, thank you very much. still with us here in new york is professor michael spence from nyu stern school of business, also general atlantic senior advisor, and nobel laureate. we've been talking about the fed and what is going on with the u.s. economy. obviously, one of the big stories this year is what is going down with global trade. we know the u.s. and chinese are supposed to meet and talk again. at the end of the day, the global trade system has been fractured, or at least disrupted in a way. even if there is an agreement between the u.s. and china, do we go back to what we had in 2015, 2016? or are we just now in some new phase of how the global trade system is going to work? michael: that's a great question. i think we are in a new phase. the united states and china, if the will is there, and that is a , on the chinese
side, there are things that are problematic, and so on, but the new game in town is technology. those frictions are not going to go away, and they are not easy to resolve. i think the new world we are going to live in gets reconstructed over time, may be sloppily or maybe a little more alertly, it's going to have more fragmentation. romaine: what does that mean for some of these large multinational corporations? when you look at a lot of the financial markets and equity markets, you have some any companies, particularly in the u.s. and developed europe, that are centered around having a cohesive global trading system. if we get to a situation where companies are restricted and how they can do business with china, with whoever else, how does companies adjust to that? is that even possible? michael: yes it is.
the ones that will succeed are the ones that are agile and fleet of foot. there's an example of this going on right now. the trade war has accelerated the migration of labor-intensive stuff out of china into a whole bunch of other countries, and there are multinationals getting that job done. the best of them are really adaptable. they will find another way. but the whole global supply chain won't look the same as the one we had before. guy: professor, what is a real economic win for the united states out of this? michael: on the trade side? guy: yeah. michael: i think it win would be an agreement from china that they would abide by the wto rules that we want them to abide to market respect
access, particularly in the financial sector, intellectual property, and so on. and make a serious effort not to subsidize their state owned subsidize their state owned enterprises so that they have an unfair advantage in the market place. i think those things are negotiable, and that would move the ball down the field. it would not settle everything, but help. guy: but those are not the kinds of things that get measured by current accounts or jobs reassured. those are the things that make political headlines. how do we put those two things together? michael: for sure, you are right. i read something this morning written by a chinese friend of mine in hong kong. doing bilateral trade surpluses and deficits vis-a-vis , how it went down, and our
deficits vis-a-vis vietnam and other countries went up, so it was a wash. if it stays that way it is, the current account won't change. it will just move around from country to country. but that doesn't seem to be particularly significant in the political discussion. romaine: we are going to have more with professor michael spence ahead. we will be back in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
what exactly is in this etf? this etf,n you see what you expected see is beyond banana, those types of things. what you actually see is microsoft. it is an exclusionary portfolio, so it is mostly beta. guy: what is being excluded? thing most being animal products and animal testing. you are excluding disney because of their parks. you are also asked looting things that use fossil fuels, burn fossil fuels, military and defense, tobacco. when you do that, you end up going overweight tech, underweight health care and consumer staples. nicely, you're getting a tilted
exclusionary beta portfolio, for the most part. etf, as basically an esg far as we are concerned. romaine: is beyond meat in this thing? weight, but a small it is there. romaine: we will be back in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: actually, before we go, quick look at the markets. this is the picture right now. we are waiting to see if the s&p can close above record highs today. currently we are at 3015, up by around eight points. it's been a very quiet week for stocks, though. we did have an expiry today, so volumes are high. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
a camera might figure it out. that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. ♪ live from new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." a bit of breaking news.
the president of the united states just announcing that the united states has sanctioned the iran national bank. the president indicating this the cut off funding for iranian revolutionary guard, basically the armed forces. he says these are the highest sanctions ever imposed, but i think the critical thing to take away from this is that we are still going down the sanctions route rather than going down a military route at this point. we are waiting to get a sense of guidance from the saudis as to which direction they want to take things in. attack a huge blow, this on the facility we saw a little earlier on with yousef gamal el-din. still with us is michael spence, nyu stern school professor of economics, general atlantic senior advisor, and nobel laureate, of course. in terms of what will happen to the global economy if we get elevated oil prices, what is the sense -- what is your sense?
tothe world is exposed receive an oil shock? michael: absolutely. it would take a pretty big one to produce a sudden stop, but rising oil prices at this point in an environment where there is already headwinds to growth globally would surely add to the pressure. it might even tipped some parts of the global economy into recession. theme,aying with the oil but looking at it from a complete lead different direction, germany today, angela merkel today came out with an environmental package. speaking in berlin all morning was whether or not this was going to have a fiscal impact. the chancellor coming out and saying absolutely not. we are still sticking to the policy we have with blocks zero, and that is really disappointed the markets -- with black zero,
and that is really disappointing the markets. . was this a missed opportunity from chancellor merkel? michael: i think so. i think europe would benefit enormously from a kind of coordinated assault on their new finishing growth prospects. obviously there'd are --tributional questions obviously there are just regional questions, so it is a tough challenge to get it agreed to. germany needs it domestically, and it would spillover positively to the rest of europe, so that would be a good example of that. i guess i understand why the markets are disappointed that it wasn't forthcoming on this occasion from germany. romaine: professor, we are getting a little would've stimulus from certain countries. you can take the news we had overnight with india. obviously, their impact on the world economy not going to be what it would be if germany did this come but they did cut the corporate tax rate.
they not only did it for the existing companies, but actually went as low as 15% for new businesses, and what i presume is an attempt to attract a little bit more foreign investment. i'm wondering that if we see more countries do this type of thing, countries of that caliber, do you think that could be enough to maybe avoid some of the worst global growth projections? michael: yes, definitely. there are very good things happening around the world. the digital platforms we have have enabled a burst of digital entrepreneurship. india is a great example of that. if the policies the government acceleratete that, and so on, that is a major force. both within these countries and globally, i think it is a very good point to make. romaine: if you look at fiscal spending here in the u.s. -- i guess not fiscal spending as much, but just the deficit spending in the u.s. -- is there
balance?r germany makes a compelling argument for why they want to remain on their balanced-budget path they have been on for so many years. the u.s. is a different basket in terms of how we view our own deficit spending. is who'sy question approach do you think is a little more right? michael: i think ours is. we can quibble about it. some people, including me, sometimes worry about the amount of debt. if we have a regime change and the funding costs go up. but germany is running the largest current account surplus of any country in the world right now, and a fair amount of .hat is inside europe so whether you call that fiscal action or whatever actions you take that try to get the savings investment in balance reduced, that would benefit literally everybody. needs toermany
contribute more on that front. michael: staying with the theme, german banks are in a world of pain at the moment. deutsche bank, commerzbank. the entire sector is really struggling. switzerland, the banks there are passing on negative rates to some of their wealthiest clients. how much damage is this doing to the financial system, the financial sector in particular? the key transmission mechanism in europe? is it having a negative effect to the point at which it is outweighing the positives? michael: i think it is. modeladitional banking really doesn't work very well when interest rates are at these levels. so when they get under pressure, things like credit become more difficult and so on, so i think -- i mean, it's a balancing act, so you don't want the overleveraged parts of that
system to all of a sudden get in trouble, which is i think why draghi decided to take the direction he did on his last appearance. a the bottom line is it is tough situation, but for the banks, it is not a good one. romaine: professor spence, so great to have you here. so glad you spend your morning with us. that is professor michael spence of the invite you stern school, general atlantic senior -- of the nyu stern school, general atlantic senior advisor, and nobel laureate. let's get a check on the first word news. here's ritika gupta. ritika: today, depending on will brief the president in the wake of the attack on a saudi oil facility. military officials will reportedly give the president a list of airstrike targets. according to the associated press, they will also warn that military action against iran could escalate into war. the whistle blower case involving president trump is now snowballing.
democrats in congress have accused intelligence officials of stonewalling on details of the whistleblowers complaint. the president has denied he said anything inappropriate to a foreign leader. says theington post" complaint raises questions about his dealings with ukraine. the u.s. envoy envoy to the middle east has met with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu days after elections that left his political future in doubt. netanyahu and his allies failed a secure enough seats for governing coalition. the blue-and-white party has demanded that yahoo! step aside to address his -- that netanyahu step aside to address his charges on corruption. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. romaine:
we have some bricking news here right now on trade. president trump speaking in the oval office at the australian prime minister. he is saying that china is "having a bad year." he also really a rates -- he also ready eric -- he also reiterates his stance that china "wants to make a deal." a lot of other stance is taking. here to talk a little bit more about u.s. trade policy, we want to bring in bloomberg trade reporter jamie leonard. she joins us right now from d.c. we just heard from the president that china is doing poorly, china once to make a deal. we heard kudlow earlier on fox news say that the mood has softened between the negotiators. what do we know right now with regards to where these talks stand? reporter: talks are ongoing today, and started yesterday with a full day on the deputies level, so the deputy ustr under
lighthizer and the vice minister of finance from china, who have been talking and setting the scene for the principals sitting down in october. we don't know the date yet for that meeting, but it will happen. there's no signs that that will be called off, but it is really a question of how far can the deputies advance the agenda. we seen in the past that it really breaks down if lighthizer isn't at the table. we hear this for multiple people. peter navarro, larry kudlow. they always deferred to lighthizer and what he thinks of the talks because he's ultimately the one who will brief the president on the status and give him an update on the talks. it is really unclear how far they can advance the agenda. the chinese delegation is going to farm country later this week with sonny perdue, on what he calls "goodwill" with farmers.
there will not be any announcement of purchases, but we know that this is one of president trump's top priorities, to get the farmers happy. guy: are we still talking about a partial deal, or back to talking about a full deal? jenny: since we put out our story last week that there is at least some discussion of an offramp for some kind of medium, mini-deal that would include maybe forand ip, and the u.s., giving in on some tariffs and rolling back some tariffs, we have seen a really diverse kind of reaction from the administration. some will say no. others are telling us yes, the president does not want to go to the next tranche of tariffs which will come in mid-december. so it is too early to say.
it really depends on what the chinese will bring to the table in october. if the president wants to show some kind of goodwill and maybe delay another tariff increase, that is scheduled for mid october on the $250 billion to go to 30%, which the president just confirmed in the oval office, the chinese have asked multiple times to delay that. his response was, he just told reporters, "i actually wanted to move it up and not back." it really depend on what the chinese will bring here. romaine: jenny leonard, bloomberg news, and washington with the update on what is going on with trade. thank you. guy: coming up, part of our exclusive conversation with marty chavez, goldman sachs trading cohead. that's a conversation you don't want to miss. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. romaine: from new york, i'm romaine bostick. this is "bloomberg markets." time now for our stock of the hour. we are looking at the u.k. bank rbs. shares trading at a seven-week high as the company announces a new ceo. emma chandra here with the details. ama: the first woman to lead major u.k. bank will take the 1, thef rbs on november first day after the u.k. is supposed to have left the european union. -- nowtaking on the role she is taking on the role, she outlined challenges the industry is facing from economic and geopolitical uncertainty, also changing behavior and technological advances. , global slide in bond yields
risk appetite, and fallout from the u.s.-china trade war have hurt european banks this year. we should be able to show you how rbs and the european banking index, the white and orange lines, have lagged the broader european market. u.k. banks have also dealt with some of their own individual headwinds, not least the pbi scandal, hopefully now put to bed, but after another round of big payouts. by far, her biggest challenge -- let's switch up that graphic again -- will be leading rbs out-of-state ownership. the u.k. government still holds part of rbs after bailing it out during the economic crisis. there is a bit of a mountain to climb. that is the stock of the hour guy: thank you very much -- start of the hour. guy: thank you very much indeed, emma chandra.
goldman sachs is making efforts to keep up. leading the change is marty chavez, the global cohead of securities at goldman. he sat down exclusively with bloomberg's sonali basak to discuss how he's seen technology impact the trading floor. drivers,here's so many i wouldn't presume to know what is a printable driver of what you described as the secular decline, but there's a lot of things going on in the world. i would say regulatory changes a part of it. interest rates, quantitative easing for very long periods of time, the cleanup, the aftermath of the financial crisis, the rise of technology, one of the most deflationary things that data, the availability of broadly disseminated to everybody, and analytics on the data. all of these things combined.
sonali: trading is still more than 1/3 of the revenue at goldman sachs. what do you think goldman becomes moving forward? how are they going to pivot into something else? martin:martin: trading, in my prediction, and who knows about the future, will remain a core business and a big business, and a major substantive business at goldman sachs for the long-term. it is in our dna. trading itself is changing in some interesting ways, and i think if you look at what is the generalization of trading, the kinds of products and services we've built, and ask yourself how you make them available in a digital format and a digital age to a broader universe, that is a very exciting evolution for trade that i would love to talk about. at the same time, the firm is clearly diversifying and entering new business lines. romaine: there is new leadership
--sonali: there's new leadership at goldman as well. what does it look like under david solomon in the new era? new leadership, and new leadership is making changes that are remarkable and decisive. in with wild enthusiasm to all of them, and at the same time, there's continuity. is about a year in as ceo, but the way i think of david, i've known him since i rejoined in them back in 2005 financing group, the same people i was working with. we were all working in this little group back then, so there's a lot of continuity as well. sonali: do you think that the firm has a new beating heart to
it, if you look towards the future? what is the heart of it? martin: there's certainly a variety of messages that david, john, and stephen have disseminated consistently in a way that everybody could hear them. that is exciting. certainly the drive towards more recurring revenue streams is a major theme, and we all hear them loud and clear. , puttingute crucial diversity at the center of what bedo, and saying we will more diverse, and this is how we are going to do it over this time frame, it is into question. it isn't an invitation to debate. leadership says it is happening, and it is happening. all of those things are exciting. i would say also, there's some investments that we've been discussing and planning for for some time, and under the new
leadership team, they are happening in a large-scale. sonali: there are a number of ways the business has been disrupted. i want you to wear your technology hat for just a second. tell me how you believe technology will change the financial industry in the next five to 10 years. martin: i want to be careful about extrapolating from the past, but i will note a few of the drivers of technological change in our world in no particular order. cloud services, open software, api's, machine learning. and i'll observe that because of the platform we've built at goldman sachs, where we put all the data and all the risk and all of the reports in one place, doing things like playing machine learning everywhere is hard, but relatively straightforward because we have the underlying platform. ,o extrapolating that out
here's one prediction. the old dichotomies that we are all used to, buy side versus sell side, infrastructure provider/infrastructure user, trader and engineer as complete a different things, all of those dichotomies are going away. sachsarty chavez, goldman securities global cohead, speaking exclusively to bloomberg's sonali basak. romaine: still ahead, we are going to talk only a. we are live at the -- to talk oil. we are live at the cme in chicago. don't go to bed early. this is bloomberg. ♪
iran from the president of the united states. president trump sand the u.s. could hit "15 different things -- trump saying the u.s. could "hit 15 different things" in iran. the president is also saying that with holding military action on iran shows strength. there are some that argue that the lack of deterrence here has encouraged the iranian behavior in the strikes we have seen. the president at this point saying the lack of kinetic action is a sign of strength. we'll see whether or not that holds and what the saudi view on this is. the president is also indicating havea number of countries been taking action on iran. remember, the u.s. hitting out and basically sanctioning the iranian republican guard.
oil prices not really reacting to this. romaine: let's stick with oil prices. i know for futures in focus. brand battle joins us from the cme. we were just talking about oil. i'm supposed to believe the saudis have this under control. what is the price action telling you right now? are reallyssues short-term. i don't want to diminish the political problem. that is a longer-term thing. the real problem plaguing oil is there is nascent demand. there's no demand and no growth in demand. oecd diminish global growth from 2% to 1.9%. until we see global demand, oil won't rally. romaine: quadruple witching day. that level seems like it has a stranglehold on things right now. what do you say with regards to the volume, and using that will keep the s&p pinned where it is for the next few days?
expiry ofs a giant s&p at 3000. i expect to see a lot of volume today, but 3000 should hold. if 3000 doesn't hold, we are going to have bigger problems, so watch the s&p 3000. that is supported by technicals and a lot of positions to cover today. romaine: that is brian battle joining us from the cme. , columbia fred needle -- columbia threa us one's analyst joining this friday. ♪
guy: 30 minutes to the european close. from london, i'm guy johnson. romaine: in new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: it is an expiry day-to-day. volumes are high. u.s. equity markets have been in incredibly tight range throughout the week. we are up by 0.3% right now, but in the big picture, we are going nowhere in a hurry. german ten-year -52. much action there. we've seen the 30 year going negative this afternoon. we had seen a german environmental package today. there was some hope that might be a kickstart to a german fiscal program. that is not happening. i want to talk about one country .hat is kickstarting it when toncing billion-dollar program. that is kickstarting 5%. romaine: on the s&p 500