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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  October 22, 2019 2:30am-4:00am EDT

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matt: welcome to "bloomberg markets." this is "the european open." today the markets say here we go again. optimism on the trade front and for a brexit deal boost stocks. cracks the 3000 mark. brexit at breakneck pace. boris johnson deal will be tested by u.k. lawmakers and the
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prime minister also proposes a three day schedule for the votes. trade talks on track. president trump says negotiations between the u.s. and china are advancing ahead of next month's apec summit. will they be ready to sign a deal? and ubs wealth management assets reached a record high with rich clients adding nearly $16 billion in the quarter. sergio ermotti strikes an upbeat tone. >> still a very challenging market condition. am glad we were able to grow solid performance in this difficult context. matt: less than a half-hour away from the european open, i'm taking a look at the pound. you can see three-day trade, maybe it's more exciting if i put it into a six month perspective here. and bouncing1.2975
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along under the 1.30 level. we have broken it yesterday for the first time since may 10. take a look at futures. we saw this morning a mixed picture in futures, a lot like the mixed picture we saw in asian stocks. dax futures and cap gaining. ftse futures down. you see these numbers are so small right now. really not getting a lot of direction indication from european futures. further out, we have the u.s. open coming. u.s. futures are up across the board. dowcan see 0.1% gains on and s&p futures. nasdaq futures. by the way, you can expect to see some tech stocks here taking off at the start of trade as well. boris johnson will find out if he has any chance of getting his
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breakthrough brexit deal through whether heand also can do so ahead of the october 31 deadline. the main action happens at 7:00 p.m. in london. we have what is known as a second reading vote on the government's withdrawal agreement bill. joining us from outside is our bloomberg west mr. anchor -- west mist and stir -- westminster anchor. what is the timetable if they go according to the plan? at 7:00 p.m.ks off local time with the second reading of the bill. this is the first time despite the name that mps get to vote on the legislation which would implement boris johnson's brexit plan. we think there are probably enough votes just to squeak that one through. of the about the timing passage through parliament. they want to push this through
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at a very quick speed. three days. -- thethat into context, wild animal bill took longer. plans to force her high-speed brexit, this gives you an idea of the lever -- the level of anger in parliament with the speed. 31 deadlineober still applies to boris johnson. that is what he has to face the country with if he fails. bill,it sounds like the the original bill, might pass. he might have the votes, just. but it could be delayed. we are hearing negative reaction the timetable, and it could end up looking very different, cut into it, with all
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the amendments boris johnson wanted. >> that comes at the next phase. put is the transfer mp's to their personal stamp on what brexit looks like. there is so much discord about what should happen. boris johnson's plan is just one option. voting could see is mp's at a second reading only to lay down or support amendments at this later stage. then what we could see as potentially demand for a customs union to be included or a second referendum. thoses the chance to add as a way of frustrating the process. what has been agreed between the u.k. and the eu is fixed. if a customs amendment passes, boris johnson would have to go to brussels and renegotiate that. we end up at a second
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referendum. there is a certain level of support for that in the house. if we look at the indicative all these were given options. none of them commanded a majority. customs union came the closest, followed by that second referendum. matt: thanks very much. cache bloomberg westminster daily at noon. here in berlin, richard, we are seeing gains in the pound. it is maintaining its strength. does this mean market participants expect the withdrawal agreement bill to pass? >> what we are seeing the price action over the past week or so is that it validates the view that everything is still alive. it will pass the second reading. the fact we are not pushing higher means a lot of the
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uncertainty that sebastian just described is very much alive and keeping the pound from pressing on from here. in the short term, all of those exigencies mean we do not rally hard longer-term. there are a lot of challenges for the pound. how much downside is there? what could trigger downside for -- for thehe afco pound? i think the pound tracks sideways. it is a waiting game. what becomes difficult for the pound is that the transition time does not move. december 2020 is when all of this has to be wrapped up and a new trade deal takes place. will at this point we probably get another extension into 2021.
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>> the u.k. government will have to ask for that. it's not clear to me the way parliament is constituted that we will not be able to avoid an election. after the election, all bets are off. the u.k. government has to ask for an extension. it is not automatic. it is not straightforward. matt: thank you very much for joining us. richard jones from the mliv team. we are going to get more from richard later. stay tuned. you can also join the debate on today's question of the day. what does the s&p 500 need to hold 3000? i suspect that is more related to trade them to brexit. give us your take. reach out, type ib+tv on your bloomberg terminal. to take part in the conversation. coming up, ubs beats on the bottom line has wealth management assets reach a record high. we will hear from the ceo sergio
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ermotti next. do not miss that interview. remember, bloomberg radio is live on your mobile device as well or on dab digital radio in london. tune in. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." this is "the european open." a mixed picture, but not a lot of signal for direction here. ftse futures are barely down. cac and dax futures are up just zero point 1%. let's get the first word news. >> good morning. recapping ony brexit. boris johnson will find out if he has any chance of getting his deal through parliament. on theond reading vote withdrawal agreement bill is scheduled to take place at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. mp's previous post suggest johnson has enough support to win. he will immediately face a more difficult vote on his rapid
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timetable for putting the bill through parliament. justin trudeau has won his second term as canada's prime minister, with a reduced mandate. the liberal party was leading short of the 170 districts needed for a majority. canada's election four years ago, the liberal party secured a majority to govern alone. trade optimism raising expectations in agreement with china. president told a cabinet meeting beijing had china has started buying more agricultural products. benjamin netanyahu has failed in his bid to form a new government. he has been forced to return the mandate to the country's president. the president plans to pass that
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, who is expected to face an equally difficult task. two inconclusive elections have left israel in deadlock. thousands of protesters gathered in city squares around chile yesterday after a weekend of riots and looting that left 11 people dead. the country is enduring the worst unrest since the 1980's to -- about 1.5 thousand people have been arrested after arson and riots. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 analysts and journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: next very much. addedy clients at ubs $15.7 billion in new money last
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quarter. earlier, bloomberg's manus cranny sat down with sergio ermotti in zurich. >> very challenging market conditions, but i'm glad we were able to bring performance in this difficult context. by 59 percent in the investment bank. you announced restructuring. what does that look like? >> market conditions have been very challenging. market conditions are also favoring our strategy choices. we are much more skewed toward europe than the u.s.. the u.s. is nominating in terms of calendar. manus: what cost savings will
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you get? is going to mean job losses? >> most importantly, i think it is opportunity to refocus our markets is inthe us. we will focus on our execution, structuring, and financing businesses. leveraging the technology investments in the last few years. industries ander more global business than regional business. also leveraging within the organization. have 5003nus: you hundred people in that division. are there going to be significant job losses? >> i do not think it will be
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significant in the context of the numbers you mentioned. we need to adapt the business to market conditions and the new priorities. manus: since you scaled back on the rates business, you scaled up on fx. where is the product excellence going to focus? >> on execution, we are still the leader in equities, in effects. we are under invested or underrepresented in credit and rates. in primevelopments brokerage. in terms of our banking business industrieson few rather than a regional approach.
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of netyou have ladles new money. mostly come from? where is the flow from wacko -- from? have avery happy we positive trend for the year. the vast majority was coming from asia. i ami am pleased to see that acs the board in all regions we had positive or neutral net new money. your clients are waiting to buy the dip. do you get a sense -- if we got a good trade deal and negotiated brexit, pent-up desire for the clients to act actively and get involved? >> if all these challenges you
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mentioned are somehow addressed, or clarified at least, there is room for investors to act selectively in the market. 46% of investors we surveyed think so. depends how the dip is going to play out. saw a dip that was too quick and too dramatic. opportunityee an where things get resolved or any correction in the market is somehow digestible. manus: is your glass half-full or half-empty? at that sense, i would say it is half half. manus: wealth management, we
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talked about net new money. you have a new banker. i want to know what you and he decided on the unrealized opportunities. what are they? onboard very fast. our current strategy always had opportunities we wanted to explore and execute on. of course, in any situation when somebody starts into a new job, we expect that person to contribute to the development of the strategy and the not only to the execution of the existing ones. ,att: that was the ceo of ubs sergio ermotti, speaking to manus in zurich. we are going to continue to bring you more throughout the day. we are minutes away from the open. we will look at stocks to watch, including novartis, which has raised its earnings forecast for the third time this year.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: a little over six minutes to go until the start of trading. joe easton is focusing on record bank. covering sunrise communications, and dani burger is looking at novartis.
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let's kick it off with reckitt. what is the story? >> reckitt bank has downgraded their forecast citing weakness in china and flu medicines in the u.s.. they say sales will rise between zero and 2%, down from 2% to 3%. in the latest quarter, the rate of growth is around half what analysts expected. another week quarter. year ine ceo's first charge. jeffrey's,note from they say they expect shares to open lower. any recovery for the shares should be slow and rocky. benckiser share is set to decline this morning following an earnings downgrade. matt: what have you got on sunrise communications? not a great day for sunrise.
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the company was forced to cancel a vote for its purchase of qvc components. -- upc components. the price was too high for free net. a big setback for liberty global. we will see what happens next. is the deal dead, or can it resume? we will keep you posted. good news. us some was the story with novartis? >> novartis should be one of the big gainers. it has raised its outlook for earnings. this is the third time the company has died this year. the big items here really helping their earnings are one of their new gene therapy drugs as well as a new breast cancer drug also beating estimates. we are seeing calls for the share of higher as much as 3%. good news there.
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hopefully for mankind. i believe breast cancer awareness month. thank you very much for joining us. you can get all the latest stock stories by typing first go your terminal. ♪
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matt: we are just a minute from the open of cash equities trading. let's take a look at the markets. dani burger is standing by with that in london. dani: today is all about trade deals, brexit deals, we are seeing the kick up, asian equities higher. japan, closed for a holiday today so that and s&p our fut -- are gaining today. hopefully signals the u.s. and china will reach a deal next month but the s&p yesterday smashing through the 2000 level. looks like -- 3000 levels. the other deal, brexit.
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johnson, looking like he will finally get a vote later today on whether he still can pass, whether he can get a deal done before the 31st deadline. gainse of some of those in sterling, we are seeing weakness on the ftse 100 futures. , mostly flat. the interesting thing will immediately equity market. big caps may be more interesting than what we are seeing in the ftse 100. act as a proxy to the pound, but they are up about .1% despite the fact that the pound is slightly higher, but a little and changed. get a deal,o perhaps any validation of sterling gains will be short-lived because the most important thing here is the trade accord between britain and the eu. even a deal before the 31st, the transition hangs in the balance. we are seeing mixed markets otherwise. spain, down a bit.
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it is a very heavy day per earnings. it will be a battle between macro or the earnings. of earnings, let's see what sectors are doing today because there are a lot of eight names that will be important. financials, no surprise here. green across the board. ubs earnings,-- the ecb also signaling they won't have more stimulus in the coming months and other ones, health care down to the red despite novartis earnings and a mixed picture otherwise. a really big day for earnings. that is sure to make an impact here. what about those individual names? matt: we have more stocks gaining than losing. 354 are up, 214 are down. you've got tech stocks doing fairly well after the asm news. i suspect you will see a lot of tech stocks gaining.
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asml is the biggest point to the stoxxition 600, sinking below the zero line. you also have a lot of financials. bnp paribas, banco santander, credit suisse ray moment and holding this index back from bigger losses. let's look at the losers. roche, down .6% but a big heavy stock, so roche is off as is your letter -- unilever. roche is probably a issue of competition from novartis. unilever, down in sympathy with reckitt benckiser as it cuts its forecast. markets are opening mixed slightly to the downside. westminster is still getting all
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the headlines today. does boris johnson have the votes to push through his brexit from and will it emerge the house of commons looking anything like the agreement he brokered with the european union in the first space? -- place? with the latest, sebastian salek is standing by at westminster. run us through the timetable of votes this week. 7:00 without second reading, this is the first chance and he's have to vote on the implementation bill that would push through the brexit deal. if that goes through, and analysis suggests we might have those votes, the program motion sets out the timetable and this is when it gets controversial because the government really wants to push this through in three days. that is so quick for a government bill. there is opposition to this. the front page of the paper shows the fury kind to force through.
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they are annoyed by that. there is no guarantee this will pass. if it does get through, we will see things moving straight through to committee stage and that is when we could get the possibility of amendments, things like a possible custom union or referendum. for ae seeing mps voting second reading and this is when the mischief began. there were suggestions if we get amendments added to come and you can get the ball -- bill pulled. this is what we saw on "the telegraph." see even more frustration on the part of the government. you saw the pull the vote saturday and it could happen tomorrow or today if that happens. there are plenty of hurdles for johnson to get her and that is before we even get to the house of lords, a whole different ballgame. matt: thanks very much. sebastian salek is the link -- anchor of our lunchtime.
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"bloomberg: westminster" at 12:00 new london time. baidu have now come i would say it is pretty important again in. joining us, the portfolio manager at hermes investment. she leads the psg and strategy within global equities. we are also joined by the chief economist for the americas and europe at standard chartered bank. she has years of experience covering 27 and emerging market macro economics. start with your take on brexit. what are you expecting now? it looks like at least we have for the most part ruled out a no deal brexit. dealthink ruled out no certainly by the end of this month and of course, that was a big concern for many in the marketplace up until recently, but where we go from here, i think there is huge uncertainty.
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there are reports there are enough votes to get the second reading telling the government's way so with labor rebels, tory -- all research group making up the numbers even , northern ireland unionists aren't voting for the bill as far as we are aware, it looks like the government could just about get it over the line, but that is when the fun starts. we don't know if the program motion is going to get through. the government wants to really expedite the whole process, get everything done and dusted in the house of commons by the end forhis week, and in time brexit by a week on thursday. a lot of mps are resistant to that. it is a huge document. they want to give it fair scrutiny and of course, once we get beyond today, the committee stages well undoubtedly see amendments.
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those amendments will be voted on and they could ultimately result in the government deciding not to go ahead with the bell, calling and election. alternatively, the referendum could be attached to -- could be one amendment. it is still all of for grabs in our view. matt: how do you invest around this kind of event? there has been a lot of uncertainty for years, but you can't sit on your hands for over three years and it does look like the uncertainty is, in some ways, starting to dissipate. louise: that is true. to a certain extent, we don't have a lot of money on the sidelines. to a certain extent, we are fully invested. it is about what has changed in the last day or so. we are looking more at is this the right time to be thinking more about those companies with greater u.k. exposure, certainly
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within the core europe korea that it -- there is still some resilience to that but some markets, such as the periphery countries and ireland itself, perhaps not going to benefit some much from this partway deal and this ongoing uncertainty we are seeing. matt: do you think the uncertainty has damaged the u.k. economy and to what extent? -- hasit is clearly clearly damaged the u.k. economy to the extent we see investment in,orming much worse than for example, euro area countries. that has been a clear trend since 2016. in some ways up until recently, the u.k. economy has held up better than expected. there has been a very strong labor market, partly because companies have been taking on labor rather than taking those long-term investment decisions.
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we are starting to see that fading now, as well. somenk there are concerns the fourth quarter of this year, that uncertainty will not just be affecting business behavior, but also the households will also become more cautious. we think we will see gdp growth next year of just .5%. did have a below consensus view on the eu k economic -- u.k. economic outlook next year and that is tied in with brexit uncertainty and we are probably looking at a general election in the next few weeks or months, which brings its own uncertainty. once the withdraw agreement bill, when it gets passed, then we enter another period of uncertain tear were the government has to negotiate a trade deal. we don't know what that will look like. n/a companies are getting very nervous about how that might turn out. matt: saris yuan --sarah hewin
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from standard chartered and louise dudley from hermes investments will stay with us. stocks on the move including software ag, shares rising after positive third-quarter results. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i would try to do something
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else with my money before i buy a negative rates bond. the real issue here is to say how to address the while staying diversified. a hard time, myself, to reconcile this concept. matt: that was ubs ceo sergio ermotti speaking with bloomberg's manus cranny. ofk at ubs shares, currently 15% cash up 2.5%. outperforming rival credit suisse by 20% this year and it is finally clawing that back. full swing of the earnings season for the third quarter, there is a raft of companies reporting this week. we just heard from ubs. other banks include rbs embarq ways, set the report as well as scandinavian banks. we also did earnings from the auto sector, psa group, tesla, and ford kicks things off with
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results tomorrow. tech earnings will be closely watched as trade war rumbles on while snap reports today. the likes of microsoft and twitter report later on wednesday and thursday. to watch out for include boeing and mining companies glencore and fortescue. a lot of earnings to follow this week. louise dudley from hermes investment management and twos, from standardewin chartered are still with us. i know you own amazon and other stocks. what are you expecting this earnings season? >> i think one of the key things we are excited to see is a return to the fundamentals. on the gooding companies, good quality delivering quarter on
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quarter. in market has been caught up the short-term macro fundamentals driving the market. we are hoping some of these earnings are going to drive people back to those good solid companies and see more stabilizing to a certain extent. also looking across sectors. certainly, we are starting to see quite a significant diversions and that will be a big process, as well. matt: what do you see? with her andonomy see from continually lowered forecasts is slowing. do we have a recession ahead? sarah: we don't see a recession at the moment, so the clearly -- clearly the risks are rising. we expect pretty weak growth in the euro area. we had the u.k. on very low growth. for the u.s. economy, growth is still holding up reasonably well. we expect this will slow next
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year, but we are not expecting a recession. we don't see any early-morning warning signs for recession mounting up yet. you have one or two worrisome indicators, but the consumer continues to be strong and we are seeing signs of recovery in the housing market. recently we have had weaker than expected data that we have seen big efforts by beijing to stimulate the economy. we think there is a lot more of that to come so for 2020, certainly weaker growth globally around 3.3% in our view, but not a recession. , do you take from that that the consumer can pull us through and is that what you are seeing in earnings? consumer strength? louise: yes, and that is what we have been seeing. this earnings season is significant to see whether that will happen. yesterday, some good numbers from apple coming through.
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also looking at the longer-term there is benefit from that, as well as very much aware of the overall diversified portfolio approach in some defensive, some value. in the last quarter, we have seen some extreme volatility to the diversification approach is quite important, as well. matt: sarah hewin from standard chartered and louise dudley from hermes investment are staying with us. we have headlines coming out of the european union. donald tusk is saying a brexit deal is acceptable to the eu thanks tyra support. saying they are still consulting leaders on the possibility of an extension of a delay, so we will continue -- we will at some point get a decision on that. also interesting the eu is coming out with a list of the countries whose budget proposals are not in line with policy
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requirements or indeed breaking the rules. the eu says italy's draft is not in line with its requirements. it also says portugal is in breach of recommendations, belgium is in breach of recommendations. interesting because brussels is the headquarters, and that france's 2020 budget plan seems in breach of the rule. let's get our stock stories with dani burger. back to theg earnings story, we have software ag surging today, trading at its biggest gain since 2016. it will beat on its third-quarter by the end of the day. keeping their outlook for the year. novartis, bigger gains are easing off. they have raised their profit outlook for the third time this year but health care is slumping. maybe why we aren't seeing as big of gains as some expected. ams, another earnings beat, raising their outlook for the
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year. things numbers are positive, encouraging. cash flow, margins, all looking strong, matt. matt: thank you for that. of an era ase end ecb president mario draghi's last policy decision approaches, we look back at the last eight years of what he has accomplished. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." looking at jean-claude juncker lamenting the vote for brexit and the process to move toward it, saying brexit is a waste of time and energy. he says his is painful wasting so much time on brexit and he will always regret the u.k.'s decision to leave the eu. have also heard from donald tusk, saying he is not sure if they can get the extension accepted by all of the eu leaders that they are still so we willthat, continue to bring you any headlines on this three-year plus developing story. let's get to the end of a story. that is, mario draghi's presidency at the ecb.
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his final policy meeting is thursday before handing the reins over to his successor, christine lagarde on november 1. the transition comes at an uncertain time for the eurozone economy. you look back at the last eight re, from the tenui eurocrisis to the introduction of quantitative easing and negative interest rates and the successes and controversies. louise dudley from hermes investment and sarah hewin from standard chartered bank are still with us. mario draghi, coming to the end of an era. what do you think of his achievements? the bloomberg headline is 11 million jobs. >> yes, the has to be the outstanding achievement. europe wastenure, known as a region where it was difficult to create jobs, unemployment was high.
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particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. the economy went through another recession at the time of the sustained, but seen a increase in employment, huge job creation, and that has led to strong underpinning for consumers to the economy. key gold star for mario draghi is his management of the eurocrisis. we were really at the stage where it looks likely we could justreece leaving, but not greece leaving the euro area, other countries. italy, for example, were very vulnerable at the time. do whatever it takes statement, that changed the tone of the debate and put the euro on the road to recovery and the euro area.
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two really huge achievements during his time. those are the ones he will be remembered for. matt: what do you think we will remember draghi for, and what has the effect been on markets? we've seen equities climbed during his tenure but they haven't told. -- doubled. louise: seen some of stabilizing, that have done well to bring -- ensure everything continues as is. we have yet to see the repercussions of the negative interest rates and that cheap debt that continues to fuel the economy and perhaps fueled global equity markets. what do we do next? where is the next ammunition and we have yet to see that. we will see that in the next five to 10 years going forward. that legacy is something that is still an uncertainty, and certainly people are looking
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over to japan. is that where europe is heading? matt: do you as an equity investor count on christine lagarde continuing to tell the same line? louise: certainly as a starting point, yes. we don't expect any rash moves, and she made a speech in the last couple of days mostly focusing on trump and the global trade war and what that has done to hinder global trade and global growth expectations. she is said extent, to herself out as being quite a moderate, but at the same time, she will be looking to put her stamp on things. i think there is still a lot of uncertainty and brexit is probably one of the biggest challenges that will be facing her in the immediate future. matt: immediately.
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louise dudley, twos, tens --sarah hewin thank you for joining us. from the couldn't be prouders
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matt: let's get your top headlines at the bloomberg terminal. boris johnson's budget deal will be tested by u.k. lawmakers. the prime minister proposes a three-day schedule for the vote you leaders say they are still consulting on an extension. as well as management assets reach a record high with rich clients adding $16 billion in the quarter. ermotti strikes an upbeat tone after the results. >> it is still challenging market conditions, but i am glad we were able to bring a solid
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performance in this difficult context. matt: softbank is seeking a in aity stake in wework bailout deal that would value a company at $8 billion, less than 20% of what it thought it was worth at the beginning of the year. welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european open." i'm matt miller in berlin. let's look 30 minutes into the trading day at how things are shaping up in terms of the industry groups moving on the stoxx 600. i used the grr function to figure that out and tech stocks as well as auto parts and basic resources are doing the best. along with industrial goods and services, those are the only ners we see in the industry group moving. we have reckitt benckiser, cutting its forecast.
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health care, down this morning. its forecast, ups maybe competitors are dragging the group and you have travel, food, beverage, and financial services off. let's get the first word news in london. leanne: let's start by recapping on brexit. boris johnson will find out tonight if he has any chance of getting his deal through parliament. the second reading vote on the governments eu withdrawal agreement will is set to take place at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. johnson hasgests just enough support to win but will immediately facing more difficult vote on his rapid timetable for pushing the bill through parliament. has won a second term as canada's prime minister but with a reduced mandate that will force him to rely and other parties to govern. or waseral party won
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in canada'sth -- election four years ago, the liberal party secured a majority to govern alone. president trump she's trade optimism -- the signing of a potential deal at the meeting next month. negotiations are going well and it has already started buying more agricultural product. netanyahu has failed in his bid to form a coalition government. he is being forced to return the mandate to the country's president, who plans to pass the right opposition leader and former military leader who is expected to face disk the cult task -- difficult task. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. boris johnson will find out tonight if he has any chance of getting his breakthrough brexit deal through parliament and whether he can do so ahead of the october 31 deadline. the main vote up and sat around 7:00 p.m. in london with a second reading on the government's withdrawal agreement bill and then he will push for a faster series of votes to get it through in three days. business lobby group london tost has filed for an piece back a deal to stop uncertainty from attacking confidence. we are joined by the ceo. she also sits on the boards of standard chartered and bt, for
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disclosure. in terms of london at first, what do you think of boris johnson's withdrawal agreement bill? , business had gotten to the stage where it was willing to reluctantly agree, a compromise agreement that would get us beyond this status we are stuck in with the constant threat of no deal, which is really putting a damper on investment, business, jobs so we were -- although recognizing that is certainly here in london, leading the eu is not what business wanted, but this is a compromise that would get us to of negotiating with a long-term relationship with the eu is going to look like and business wants as close as possible relationship going forward. matt: does this satisfy the
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closest possible agreement you can imagine u.k. coming out with? well, we are not at that stage yet. this is just the withdrawal agreement and it hasn't been passed. i think parliament is right to want to scrutinize this. we will have to see as to whether the majority is in parliament to get the deal through but the choice is quite clear from parliamentarians. either back the deal and enable us to move on to the next stage will -- which will enable us to negotiate that close relationship or take this moment, and give everyone a safe between this withdrawal agreement or remaining. matt: what do you think about the possibility of that? is it still possible that brexit doesn't happen? mindthe u.k. changes its
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and stays a part of the european union? jasmine: it is looking increasingly likely now. the momentum seems to be growing behind this withdrawal agreement, but we've heard over three years, multiple governments of parliament and it is not done until it is done. even once any withdrawal agreement is made, that takes us on to negotiating what our long-term relationship to the eu looks like. this is not a short-term fix. that is the concern because all of this time is increased and continuous uncertainty. investments that could be coming into london, that could be helping businesses create more growth for the economy is all being affected. hurt how much has brexit the city of london, the business of london? has the london gdp, for
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example, had to shrink due to this? london remains a great global city. just yesterday, we saw citibank reemphasize their commitment to london. we've got the tech giants having headquarters here now, and our businesses, all sectors continue to grow. increasingly technology, creative sectors. that is all good and some of the basic tenets of what makes london a great business city will continue but there is no doubt that in the short to medium term, we have seen impact of brexit. it is not that business is stopping or going back, but the investments we have been getting used to as becoming one of the top destinations for foreign direct investment, that has all been slowing and what we are hoping is that by -- if we do
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get agreement on the next stage, in brexit talks that break the deadlock and get the medium to longer term view, which is positive in terms of london's position in the world. matt: thank you for your time this morning. jasmine whitbread, the ceo of lobbyists london first coming to us. we will bring you stock movers this morning, including the engine maker that beat analyst estimates. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the ecb is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. believe me, it will be enough. >> with these words, mario draghi is credited by many with saving euro but he already proved willing to take decisive action. in his first two meetings, he undid the 2011 rate hike enacted by his predecessor and later took the key deposit rate to an unprecedented 0% to battle the greek, and european debt crisis. that was just the beginning. >> is historic. the deposit rate has gone negative. >> i would say for all the
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practical purposes, we have reached the lower bound. >> as the european economy continued to deteriorate and bond yields surged, the ecb introduced quantitative easing in early 2015. not everyone supported it and opposition to the ecb was growing. despite signs of recovery and growth in jobs, draghi approach the end of his term and it became here -- clear europe needed support. >> additional stimulus will be required. this outlook is getting worse and worse. >> maintaining calls for fiscal stimulus, draghi cut rates again and controversially resumed cutie, plymouth -- qe, reminding investors. what is next? christine lagarde hopes to avoid
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draghi's motto. >> i hope i never have to say something like that. matt: that was a look back at as ecbraghi's tenure president and a little sneak peek at his successor, christine lagarde. set to preside over his final policy decision on thursday before handing the reins to lagarde on november 1. the new book that looks at the european central bank president's tenure and the expectations he will have to confront when he returns to his homeland is out. we've got a picture of it right here. the man whoory of saved the euro." we are glad to be joined by the author. and a euro area importer -- reporter.
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what do you think his biggest achievements were? >> showed that when he said his famous "whatever it takes" sentence. it is not just because of the three words, it is because after that, he not just -- he seemed to reverse the course of the crisis and also because it showed how power central banks could be and how they could fill the gap left by politicians were unable to find a decisive solution to the crisis. was: do you think he successful? alessandro: in the short term, for sure. , the people that would have bet the euro would still be here seven years after
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that. seven years after that, we might have brexit soon and the euro is still here. whether writ will be long enough in the longer term, we will see but that will be up to his successor, christine lagarde. that i have years been here, i see the ecb continually cutting forecast for growth, cutting forecast for inflation and never really coming that close to meeting its target sustainably. what legacy does draghi leave for christine lagarde? >> you are right. on inflation, which is the primary mandate of the ecb, draghi's track record is not as predecessorsof his and as it should be and he probably wants it to be. it is not for lack of trying. many things that no
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one would have believed possible at the start of his term. he introduced negative interest rates, quantitative easing, loan programs for banks that stretch over four years, banks get paid to take out loans, so he really invented new tools for the central bank to use and that is something christine lagarde can build on when she takes over the ecb. at the same time, while introducing those tools, he didn't only make friends on the governing council. there is a big rift among governors who supported draghi all the way through, then there are those who have been critical from the beginning, have developed a sense of criticism as time went on. as christine -- and christine lagarde takes over at a crucial moment where she needs to bridge gaps, reunite, find consensus among policy make is again and
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that is her biggest task right now. matt: jana randow, carol european economy editor and alessandro speciale, our ecb and euro every economy reporter. publishede" has been in italian and i trust in english language translation is coming soon to a bookshop near you or online. let's get to our top stock stories with dani burger in london. dani: the earnings roll on. one of the biggest gainers in the stoxx 600, training -- trading at the most in february. third quarter, beating expectation and sales doubling. citigroup says those numbers are positive. you are seeing some day in -- downside for reckitt benckiser, down nearly 5%. there is a new ceo but they have lowered their sales forecast.
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flu medicine for in the u.s. and baby formula in asia. a cut by morgan stanley saying shares might have done better after thomas cook uncertaintyd less from brexit but due to the 737 max 8 rounding, their 2020 full-year outlook is expected to be below consensus. matt: dani burger, looking at a couple of stocks on the move. group isthrough -- looking to move, as well, taking a controlling stake in wework. the bailout would value the parent company at $8 billion. that is a far cry from the $47 billion valuation that wework secured in january. the shared space office company had a junk debt package on offer from j.p. morgan. the question is, which one takes it?
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joining us is bloomberg opinion columnist kris bryant and which rescue package is more -- which rescue package do you think the wework executives want? let's take a moment to think what a shocking development this is. this company was supposed to go public with a 40 billion dollars valuation. now it is $8 billion valuation. i think he is going to want to go for a softbank package, because it will guarantee a certain value for his shares. jpmorgan were offering debt. that is a high risk approach to take, which will be with lifted and the cost of the debt. softbank would be putting in equity and for that reason, even though mr. newman will be forced to give up his role as chairman, he will go for that because it
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means a guaranteed payout. matt: so what does it mean for wework going forward? what kind of changes will be see for employees of the company, for shareholders, and for clients? well, i think this needs to be a fundamentally different company going forward. we already heard since that. that needs tog happen is a belt-tightening exercise that entails job cuts. there was reporting in recent days that wework wasn't even able to lay off staff because it didn't have the money to pay them severance, so with cash coming in, it will be able to get on with that. kid needs a slimmed-down company focusing on profitable growth. by now, it is focused on runaway expansion, cost what it may. that needs to change and with new money on the table and in the boardroom, that will happen. the end of the day, but company
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has yet to prove it can be a profitable business going puts moneywhoever in, softbank were jpmorgan, it will be a high risk exercise. matt: bloomberg opinion columnist chris bryant. you can check out his work and colleagues.his mixed, westminster, still grabbing the headlines as boris johnson, the see have enough votes to bush is still through parliament? what does it mean for sterling? we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to the european market open, 55 minutes into the session. we are for the most part down. we see an unchanged dax because some tech stocks in frankfurt are lifting the index but you see the ftse down as well as the cac and ftse mib. richard jones, mliv strategist in berlin. not a lot of time, but what do you expect for the vote tonight and how will that move the pound? richard: this is probably the second reading passes but the prime minister timetable, that is not so certain and that become something important for the pound in the short-term,
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because if he doesn't get it done by october 31 and has to ask for an extension, that ratchets up uncertain, which is already high for the pound. in the short and long-term, looking challenging for sterling. matt: uncertainty getting ratcheted up pulls a slower than 1.30? if he does get his fast timetable, does the pound gain? tohard: it probably has legs move to 1.32 but not much beyond that because the longer-term headwinds against the pound, which that transition period thing as short as it is, it is something that will weigh on the pound and u.k. businesses because all we are doing is kicking the no deal cliff edge brexit down the road to the end of next year. we've avoided it short term but in the long-term, it hasn't been put to rest. matt: richard jones, mliv fx and rate strategist here in berlin. you can check out his work on the mliv page on the bloomberg terminal. that is it for the european open. up next is "bloomberg:
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surveillance." tom keene and francine lacqua. i am headed to radio. in the london area, tune in on london dab. in new york, good morning. sirius xm, channel 119. ♪
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>> boris johnson's deal will be tested by u.k. lawmakers, but will he find enough support? ubs pulls and $16 billion from rich clients and assets it's a record. it has been a solid quarter. companies funding runs drive for wework. welcome to surveillance, i am


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