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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  December 10, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EST

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a bit of a cautious day of trade in asia once again ahead of the fed decision on the conflicting trade headlines from the u.s. and chinese side. you do have the hang seng index moving higher and the cost be in focus. we had credit suisse upgrading kospi.the up from 2100. let's have a look at what we are seeing in the bond and fx space. the final fed decision of the year but now there is market pricing and whether or not we might see hikes coming in in 2020. bank of america seen the risk of the fed's signaling is a price hike. also, of course, seeing bonds snapped up in japan after we saw the yield hit 9% for the first
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time in nine months yesterday -- for the first time in nine months yesterday. a pulse adjusting that boris johnson's lead could be narrowing and the aussie dollar in focus with analyst split on a 2020 forecast for the aussie. a 14% upside in the -- if we see positive headwinds on the u.s.-trade front - -the u.s.-china trade front. rishaad: 43 minutes away or thereabouts. the last close, it was one which was weaker. lastve lost 1.3% in the three trading days in mumbai. having a look at futures. we're up -- currently in the session in singapore. those nifty futures. here we have the rupee that continues to strengthen against its american counterpart.
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and, of course, this is one of the few occurrences which actually was showing declines against the dollar since august. we're taking some of that back. all of this perhaps is against this backdrop of interest rate likely to remain on hold. reserve bank of india perhaps after last thursday decision not to do anything is seeing more and more baked in. as a result we are seeing yields backing up. 6.71% as some of those rate cuts which had been priced in are priced out. ok, let's move things along and have a look at the first word news headlines. and join su keenan. su: we're going to start with a rewritten successor to nafta, which was the u.s.-canada-mexico trade deal. it is being welcomed by house voted on, and will be next week. nancy pelosi praise to the changes from her party. saying the revised deal is better for american workers.
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the u.s. mca as the agreement is now known is seen as a political win for president trump as he heads into an election year. however, final approval from the senate is not expected anytime soon. youet me start by telling what will happen between now and the end of next week. -- won't happen between now and the end of next week. we will not be doing usmca in the senate between now and the end of next week. that will have to come up in all likelihood right after the trial is finished in the senate. and aung san suu kyi. to defend her country in a court against charges of genocide later wednesday. the international court of justice in the hague began its hearing tuesday. a leader from gambia gave details of the destruction of
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muslim minority homes. in hong kong, renewed pressure on the government over demand for an independent inquiry into the police handling of demonstrations. a panel of expert has quit. they abandon their roles out of concern the independent police complaints council does not have enough power. early reports said it ipcc cannot summon witnesses and cannot compel police to provide evidence. the new ecb head christine lagarde hosts her first policy meeting thursday. a digital currency, a new topic, is among matters up for discussion. governing council members will address the subject non monday. while there is expectation of a decision on a cryptocurrency the fact that it is being discussed is seen as a sign of how far christine lagarde is going to shake up the ecb. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by
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bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. just getting some news crossing the bloomberg terminal that does concern hong kong. the police concluded an interim are hopinghich they to complete by january, hoping to keep contact with the foreign experts, the topic of the day after the international police complaints commission did see five foreign experts quit, saying they did not have the power to conduct a full investigation into the actions of police. that's currently what we have at the moment. the hong kong police hoping to keep contract with -- contact with those experts in hoping to complete a report in january. thosehina is expecting,
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of the people who were the experts on that panel for the hong kong international police complaint commission, this story about tariffs continues, of course, to be one of the main -- of what's going on marketwise. we have the possibility that we could see the 15th of the mo nth when fresh tariffs are men to be implemented-- implemented could be delayed. peter navarro says no indication of ending. . let's get to selena wayne in beijing how does beijing's idea square with navarro and what he's saying? selina: rish, we are getting conflicting views from the united states. and some positive hands those tariffs might be delayed from the u.s. agriculture sector and the u.s. had positive comments from wilbur ross p or do you mentioned peter navarro reminded
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us that tariffs are still very much on the table. it all comes down to trump. according to our sources, the chinese side does expect those tariffs to be delayed. the two sides are closer to reach an agreement of what to do on the existing tariffs. this is a new piece of information. instead of talking about the removal of existing tariffs, the discussion is about cutting the rates of those existing tariffs by as much as half. as a reminded the tariffs that have gone in places the trade war started was a 25% duty on $250 billion on chinese imports the december 15 deadline for the potential $160 billion of imports that could be tariffed. that would hit consumers and u.s. corporate the hardest out of all of those. bloombergto economics, their view is that even if progress is not made, if a deal is not reached, the u.s. will find some sort of face
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saving way to avoid those latest rounds of tariffs on december 15. juliette: it is december 12. december 15, the clock is ticking. what are the sticking points here? sources say that sticking points remain, especially around china still pushing back mr. timeline for the purchase of agricultural goods. place aswants those in enforcement mechanisms by china argue that the purchases should be market-based and they are facing pressures from their trading partners. china has already diverted many of their purchases away from the u.s. as a result of these trade pressures. as part of the steel we are expect some agreements around intellectual property protection, as well as china's currency manipulation. to keep the currency stable. again, this is the lower hanging fruit. the fact that we've had all of this -- the drawnout conversations just for this phase one deal does not bode
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well for any future talks around the really long-standing issue from the u.s. side around china subsidies and industrial policies. juliette: selina wang in beijing. let's bring in the asia cio and head of discretionary portfolio -- in singapore. the clock is ticking. peter navarro is kind of hawkish. it kind of still throw a spanner in the works. how are you position yourself? >> yes, more than ever. it is a bit of a paradox because -- if there is a favorable outcome from the trade negotiation the potential risk is that the fed may actually decide to stop easing its policy and may go out to a more hawkish stance. a financiale, from market performance point of view, something of a settlement or an agreement, which wasn't 100% clearance
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other would not be a bad thing. at the end of the day you will have the central banks focused on making sure that those trade tensions do not derail the economies. from a financial point of view, it's not great to say that. but actually you need that liquidity to come in. you do not want to see the best scenario come out at this point. juliette: yesterday and today it is kind of like in asia little bit sideways. we are expecting this to happen. but what you are seeing, and i have a chart of my terminal, is the big volatility in the yuan. traders are not taking any bets. >> it's a very important point. in the outcome we would like to see actually words about the currency and the yuan policy, something like china committing to better stability or the idea that it is going to be more market forces that are going to be a play when it comes to the yuan positioning.
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that would be very positive from an investment point of view, because that would make foreign investors more comfortable inviting into domestic china -- but, nonetheless, between seven relative to the u.s. dollar but also to the rest of the currencies across the world, we see that the yuan is offering an interesting entry point. juliette: in terms of what we see with the tariff delay, it looks like it is priced in. in a sense of what we see after december 15, how to assets react? that imagineint is earlier in the your would say i would not buy countries that are involved in trade tensions. you would not be interested in the u.s. and china, two of the best performing markets year-to-date. the context has not changed much. at the end of the day, what matters is liquidity, central-bank policy, the balance sheet extension, which is taking place with fed, with the ecb, with the boj, the pboc at some
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point. stay in. if there is any actual shortfall because of the outcome from the trade negotiations, probably more -- [indiscernible] see you.david, good to do you think there is a problem with dollar liquidity? david: well, we know that some if you're the u.s., talking about the u.s. trade market overall, and the u.s. dollar in some parts of the world, yes, there is some tension. we clearly see in the high-yield space, currency denominated. but the good news is that those signals are well identified. a know we are at the end of cycle and you see the weakest players, the weakest borrowers. i would say there is no major surprise. and this is where investors,
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overall, should be actually focusing on quality. while maintaining quality have to be able to generate yield in return. so, talking about a shortage in u.s. dollar assets, yes, that is the case but it doesn't, it's not so much different from the previous cycle. again, you know, the fed is adding more liquidity every month in u.s. dollars at least until april or may next year. at least over the next six months we still have very -- feasibility on that front. i'm going lot of -- to go to china because we have a lot of linkage between onshore and offshore bond markets in china as well. there are local defaults taken place. if there was one, how concerned would you be about that? do you see that also playing into a 2020 story? david: it is going to be actually, going nto be
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meaningful -- going to be meaningful. moree going to see in default in the domestic bond market in china. the reason is the --process is -- the deleveraging process is still taking place. from some segments of the market. that is definitely going to hurt. just like this year, and 2019 was very much about active management with the proper selective management, you are able to extract the fundamental performance of the market. next year is probably even more important, because you will see actually more default. it's really going to be a case of selecting the right assets and avoid the very worst ones. there's going to be more worse. we don't see them actually creating a systemic impact into the markets. so, overall, this is why the case remains very much investable. rishaad: david, please stay with
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us, joining us from singapore. we'll have more this hour, including saudi aramco debuting later today after raising more than $25 billion in its ipo. the big question remains, it will it help the overall economy of the world's biggest oil exporter? juliette: after three cuts in 2019 many expect the fed to hold rates at its last meeting for the year. david stays with us for his outlook for the central-bank policy. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the federal reserve hold its final meeting of the year later wednesday. this showing how it's becoming more and more unlikely that the fed is going to be doing anything for a while. 2020 we see rates on hold in
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effect and seeing gradual uplift in interest rates in the u.s. after that. that's currently position we find ourselves in. juliette? juliette: still with us is our -- alongia cio and with pretty much everyone else you are not expecting any change but what do you think in 2020? even bank of america saying perhaps when you look at the dot plot, there could be a surprise hike. david: we don't believe that any hike is in the plan next year. on the country we expect further cuts next year. we expect some deceleration in the u.s. economy. we are more bearish in that sense. we are expecting gdp growth to decelerate in the u.s. a tightening affect from the fed. softening interest rates has not played out yet in full. finally some of the trade
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tensions are hurting the u.s. economy in the first half next year. juliette: and what about the consumer, because that has been the one part that is been holding up well. ther edoes look like there could be a few roadblocks. thed: it will catch up with consumer to a certain point. so it is all disconnected, actually should lead us to see a bit of weakness in the u.s. dollar. that's a very important point because a weakening u.s. dollar is going to put into question a lot of the money that has been parked into u.s. dollar money markets, bonds. we're talking about tremendous amount, which last year, this year were generating up to 2.5 %, risk free u.s. dollar -- now been cuttinghas rates, that money market rate has come down 2%> . if the u.s. dollar starts to weekend, all of that money that has been there will have to find other places to be invested. that could trigger some massive reallocation globally outside
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u.s. dollar. juliette: what does that mean for e.m. equities? david: marginally it should be positive because e.m. has been missing that kind of liquidity coming its way. if we are right about a re-acceleration and some of the key emerging market economies like china, india, and brazil, then they will definitely be a case for reallocating at least some fresh new money into those markets rather than adding it further to the u.s. market, the u.s. dollar. so, this could be a very important element of the global allocation next year. yourad: as yo -- has allocation changed as all and in what prism do you look at politics, of course? politics can be the alpha. we have this election taken place of the u.k. don't forget we are 11 months away from an election in the united states as well. david: i'm going to disappoint
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you but i'm going to be relatively -- in the sense, those political events are essential from a society point of view, from future developments, structural reform, but from a financial point of view, at this very moment what matters is the level of liquidity globally. and so, of course, we are watching very closely the election in the u.k.. the level of uncertainty is so high that it's impossibly basically to make proper projections. but what is really important is that next to that you have got very strong support from all the central banks. historically, the correlation between the extension of the balance sheet of the central banks and the financial market is extremely high, .94, .95. which means that no matter what happens in the key political elections, maybe we will have to reduce -- our weight in the
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u.k. if there is some complication but they will be other parts of the world will we deploy a loud -- able to capital. it is more from an allocation within the portfolio where those politicals don't matter, but not from the original question, should i pullout from the markets after the very strong year we had this year. rishaad: if we get yields of 2%, treasury a,10-year what is that tell you and does it change the game? david that could be a cop located sequence initially. a complicatedld be sequence it initially. the market may be worried that we see tightening. from a perception point of view, that could derail actually the sentiment that liquidity is slowing in -- flowing in. underneath there is no very strong sign of -- destabilization and the fed, the morend ecb are adding
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liquidity in the markets. if anything, you see the 10-year going up you should be buying gold, you should be buying financial markets and buy on weakness. that would be a great opportunity. juliette: davi gaud, always great to have you with us in singapore. we will have special coverage of the fed decision tomorrow with a whole host of guests. don't miss that from 3:00 a.m. thursday hong kong time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: it is that time of the day. you're looking at malaysia airports to tell us why. >> this is a company that operates a number of airports in malaysia. on-duty free. it has got an upgrade.
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they are phrase malaysia airports to hold. the analyst saying that they see a price target of 8.58 malaysian ringgit. we're seeing a gain of 2% today. analysts have raised their consensus on the target price past three 1% in the months. and we have seen prior to this that malaysia airports have buys and six holds. zero sales on the stock in the company reported earnings that topped sales. sales trailed estimates, rather. lowergs topped -- sales when they came with through with their numbers on november 27. to get a glimpse of this and other stocks today, rish, you have the bloomberg terminal. rishaad: absolutely. %.erage shares around 926 than they we do normally. this is where we find ourselves as we head to the lunch break in
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china. pretty much a down arrow. a small gain of 0.1%. terms of returns, we are seeing the department stores putting on 10% and shanghai. hot metal down 8%. ♪
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live pictures of the harbor, which is looking a lot better than it did yesterday. we are starting to see a bit of a clearing in the air quality, which has been worse in shanghai in recent days as we continue to see bushfires rage across the country, particularly happening in new south wales, but finally looking like a little bit of clearing. we've had interesting calls on the aussie dollar today. monarchs is predicting a 14% u.s.-china trade tensions ease in 2020. let's get to first word
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headlines now with su keenan in new york. su: thank you very much. were going to start with china and the tariff situation. china expects the threat of new u.s. tariffs on sunday to be delayed as the two sides edge closer to an interim trade deal. beijing and washington are in almost daily contact. we've been told that rather than removing existing tariffs, it focuses on reducing the level, perhaps by as much as half. >> the trajectory toward a phase i deal is pretty good. if we can make some progress on phase one in the next couple of days and weeks, i think that will impact what happens. the latest on impeachment proceedings -- president trump says the articles of impeachment that were delivered against him are "very weak." calling forats are
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his removal for abuse of power. accuseslution also president trump of ignoring and hindering national security for personal benefit. the impeachment vote is expected to pass in the house but stands little chance of passing in the senate. meanwhile, in india, passenger car sales fell for a record-breaking 13th straight month in november, falling almost 11%. demand for new vehicles has grown at its weakest pace in six years. new suv models managed to spur some interest. the likely death toll from the volcanic eruption in new zealand has risen to 14 after his sixth victim died overnight.
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30 survivors are being treated for severe burns in the hospital. the volcano is still dangerous and police are waiting for improvement in conditions before they reach the island. global news 24 hours a day on by and a quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. rishaad: sydni marching higher at the moment. it's quite a mixed bag out there. take a look at some of the constituent movers. we have visual group, the 10%, and an or down update -- their website closed down due to them carrying some international media which apparently did not quite cut the muster in china. big, big beat when it came to
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november sales. we have a downgrade for pigeon corporation coming out of ubs, and on top of that, we also got one for other company that is well which just disappeared off my screen, but that is kind of the position we find ourselves in, mixed bag for equities across asia-pacific, but marginally to the upside. juliet: the credit crisis appearing to be winding down for the sake of borrowers, but a series of defaults keeping investors on edge. joining us for analysis and ofgapore, jp morgan's cohead
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asia. >> you are seeing significant puts by the government and government to prop up growth. we don't worry too much about contagion at this point in time. yes, there are sudden issues which are coming to the fore due to slower growth. all the structure the company has taken in the past few years, especially the bankruptcy code , sohat is starting to work while median growth is reducing because of some technical issues, some of the more structural elements are starting to come together. about contagion. there's enough on the policy monetary and fiscal
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and more importantly, intent. growth is slowing down and these things take a while, too. thes that your view across whole board, or are you looking at specific banks? you say you like some of the ones they call banking franchises that have a good track record. >> yes. at the same time, some of the structural things are coming together. what we want to focus on is banks with a very good underwriting track record. if economics starts flowing meet if economics start slowing -- we want to buy stocks which have very good underwriting track record. with if you combine that
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banks which have a decent deposit franchise, it also starts giving you some comfort on operating profit, and that is what we are trying to focus on. you're right -- it's not across , but deposit franchise franchise areng our focus. issues inructural your view are coming together now? reduction, of risk which is happening structurally. no getting to a part where a new investment comes into these projects which have been
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mothballed for the past couple of decades. new starts creating a .nvestment cycle has also started globalizationmore . these are the structural changes which has not even work for a while are starting to go ,hrough, but by definition there's better for growth impact in the near-term which is what we are seeing right now. >> we've got them unable to lend to street vendors and the man on the street, which is one of the biggest problems in india where inand has fallen off a cliff
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rural areas. there's concern about governance and a lot of these banks as well. it needs to have open confidence built into it. how does that happen? >> one of the most interesting , the transmission was a theweaker, so basically policy was to basically ensure that the transmission upgrade comes a bit faster. ensuring that let's get the transmission done which will start allowing the liquidity on
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some of the shadow banks, viability, and that is one of the most important aspects. blockages in terms , and anyic activity meaningful activity should be positive in terms of outcomes. singapore will last 5, 6 years, especially the domestic banks fantastic job. part of this is the rule of law stability. everything works really well and banks have created significant mobility's in terms of product, in terms of people.
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growth has been just one direction. it has been going up. more importantly, the variety of widened as well. ashink that continues, and related stability looks more growth should continue. >> bright future for the banking sector even if the weather outside is a bit gloomy. .hanks so much coming up, the world's largest ipo of the world's most profitable company. we are on the ground in riyadh. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we've done everything but the book. we are very pleased with the feedback we are getting, the subscription, the quality, diversification of investors. i'm very optimistic because the company value is very significant. >> and optimistic outlook as saudi aramco prepares to become the world's biggest publicly traded company. one of the last key milestones for aramco has been the count down to this start of trading. >> we are almost there. a key component of the conference is ambition to reform the country and ween it in terms
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of dependency off the crucial commodity of oil. 9:30 to 10:30, there will be a special auction. from nowt three hours and actually longer than usual. saudi aramco shares will start .rading at 10:30 local time obviously the same kind of regulation that applies in terms of up and down side limits. in terms of the market cap that trillion, in$1.5 terms of the percentage of total market cap, 1.5%, that's actually a tiny fraction compared to what some of the other major global heavyweights have to offer. we think along the lines of facebook, microsoft, and apple, for example.
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non-saudi investors -- and this 23.1y -- were allocated percent of the institutional offering, so about $3.9 billion. >> a lot of hype, and a lot of money being raised. how are aramco shares likely to be supported at the open of today's trade? >> we are looking at goldman sachs being the stabilizing manager, so they will play a role. to exercisee right an option to sell another 150 million shares, but then also the government has pulled out all kinds of additional support tools for the start of trade. arguably, saudi aramco will not be the one doing that. elementssome of the they have used. they will be playing a major role in the first few hours, but
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also the fact that saudi aramco is such a large company means it is going to be on the fast track to getting included in some of the key indices. you are also looking here at providing credit for stock purchases. that had helped with the retail component of this ipo and also guaranteed dividends, absolutely crucial. >> right. what comes next in the bigger picture of saudi arabia's diversification ambitions project 2030, as it has been lauded? >> conversations we've been having indicate the crown prince is not satisfied with the progress of some of the .nitiatives the next up will be to fast-track some of those reform programs but also to see what else can be privatized and if there will be an international seo for the saudi aramco ipo.
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it's a small amount of money that has been raised compared to the actual size of the saudi cut . >> you can also turn to your this.erg for more on let's go to india now because are opening.ts the boardssure across yesterday. how are things looking today? better.tly -- of losses as we have seen
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bit of losses as we have seen yesterday. the market is not getting support from institutions in the past. they've also seen gains about 85 points as we speak, and from the arena, shorting in the markets. market inrkets, the the last four trading sessions just not good. there is more selling which is taking place. it is important to monitor today and if the closing can come above support levels which were breached in yesterday's trade. the saga set up some alarm bells, hasn't it? you're looking at that and some
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other companies. >> that's right. yes bank continues to be in focus. yesterday was the board meet. stocks tanked. from the board meeting yesterday, they have said the come to thelling to holdings in the one point $2 billion binding offer. is still under discussion, so no headway coming there. remember, the bank is in dire cash injection. they did not expect the 1.2 billion dollar bid to go through. the stock has given good
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returns. because of that, we did see the stock tanking intraday, but focus.another stock in ofhas given negative returns about 8%. back to you guys. looking at what's going on in broader markets, .his is what we have one of the reasons arguably we've seen the stock on the way up, but we talked about yes bank, 4% down. coming up, new arguments in hong kong. the foreign panel investigating police strategy. plus, what happens now? this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a quick check now of the latest business flash headlines. hsbc has agreed to pay almost $200 million to resolve a investigationx and has admitted it helped american clients cheat the irs. the settlement relates to conduct from the year 2000 through 2010 following irs battles against swiss banks and u.s. taxpayers over undeclared accounts. are-hailer's uber and lyft well positioned to make a profit according to a team that 2000 troops in new york in new york city. shares have failed to take off with uber down nearly 39%.
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>> we have the legitimacy of hong kong's inquiry into protester-based violence thrown into question. chief north asia correspondent stephen engle has been covering this from the get-go. what do we know? >> this goes to the heart of what carrie lam has been saying all along. while protesters have been asking for an independent commission of the police alleged brutality, carrie lam all along has been saying that the independent police complaint counsel do its job, and they will come out with their initial findings next month. they will submit it to carrie lam before that, probably later this month, and then they will reveal it. one of the members of the foreign panel -- five foreign experts -- were brought in. these are experts, heads or
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former heads of police watchdogs from around the world. they were brought in to add to which isember ipcc, rather toothless. they are just coming in and weighing police complaints from within the police mechanisms, right? but they could not do their own investigation. they could not subpoena witnesses. they could not subpoena police evidence. what we're hearing now -- these are the five individuals right here -- we are hearing they have opted to stand aside. they are stepping aside because theircc did not heed recommendations that they need to be able to investigate these claims. they are impartial. they don't have a sign on this. they don't have skin in the game, but they cannot do their job adequately, they said. >> what happens now? hashave said carrie lam insisted they allow the ipcc to deliver the findings, but now it
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looks like those could be discredited. >> it is up to carrie lam now. how is she going to spin this to the public when she said all along that we have independent counselors that are going to add that objectivity? now they do not necessarily. we did get a statement from the ipcc saying they hope to stay in contact with those five members going forward, but it is in a bit of disarray right now. this as carrie lam heads to beijing this weekend for what will be scheduled talks with xi .inping will she give into this independent inquiry now? she has resisted those overtures all along, so i would not be holding my breath. >> thanks so much. let's check in on markets because we have been getting conflicting headlines from the china and u.s. sides on the trade front with only three days until he suppose a december 15 tariffs come into effect.
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you have a little bit of upside coming through in some of these markets, but the nikkei is tracking a little lower. hong kong looking good. we did actually have credit suisse come through and say that you did see some upside for this index. they have a target of 2300 by 2020. also seeing a bit of a reprieve after the selling coming through yesterday, but we have also been watching as well what has been happening in pound ahead of this vote. >> with regards to a programming note covering the special elections, results role in friday from 6:00 a.m. friday hong kong time. take a look what is going on with the pound at the moment. we did have sterling on of the basis or as johnson's party would get an extension in the house of commons.
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vote suggests the conservative party will not have a smaller majority, so trading $1.3137. bloomberg daybreak: asia is next. ♪
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♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco for emily chang, and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, tech outperforms. they shrug off the december 15 deadline for the tariff between u.s. and china. we will hear why. plus, insight on inequality an unusual move. intel shows white and asian men dominate the top pay tier.


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