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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 18, 2019 1:30pm-2:00pm EST

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investigation of actions. articles would make mr. trump the only third president in history to be impeached. the debate has been a partisan lines. about what this body can do. there has been a lot of constitutional and founders thrown around. there is one thing i will mention. the founders were very concerned about a partisan impeachment in which politics can do what they want. to our founding generation, abuse of power was a well defined offense. misuse the may not power of the presidency to intake -- to obtain an improper benefit. president trump did exactly that. >> chairman nadler also set up the president "he has shown us
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he will continue to put his selfish interests above the good of the country. we must act without delay." a judge in new york has thrown out all metaphors. trump's was president campaign chair. he was convicted into federal cases stemming from his business dealings and serving a seven and a half year prison sentence. the lawyers argued the state charges should have been dismissed. they involve some of the same allegations as federal cases that landed him behind bars. we will take a look at india's act. protests have been protesting below. it is discriminatory because it bars undocumented muslims from pakistan, afghanistan, and bangladesh to seeking citizenship. it allows others to do so. the prime minister has pledged to push ahead and implement the
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law. teens is vaping among more than doubled in the past two years. according to the university of michigan, one out of five high school students has vaped marijuana in the last year. marijuana vaping has been growing faster than nicotine. local news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take by bloomberg. 700s --by more than 20 2700 journalists and analysts. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg new york. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> we have top stories following around the world. >> as martin mentioned the u.s.
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house is in the middle of a debate. it will result in donald trump becoming the third president in history to be impeached. does trade progress mean for latin america? we will have an exclusive inter vivos with the bise minister of trade. fedexcup the forecast as e-commerce's wheezes -- squeezes markets. let's get a check on the markets. quiet could be a word to describe them. trading near global high. we should not on the impeachment date the s&p 500 is close to flat. x as a realg fed drag on this one. down 10% with the breathtakingly bad quarter. we are seeing attack showing leadership. -- tech showing leadership.
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i want to zero in on one canadian stock. it may have been the newsmaker of the year. one of these candles that dogged our prime minister at the time. our newly elected prime minister, s&p settled for fraud charges. it will pay $200 million over three years. the stock opened up 30%. still some fine print on the agreement to be determined. some relief in the stock. breaking news in broadcom. dow jones reporting the company is seeking a buyer for the radiofrequency wireless chip. they are negotiating. a unit that could be valued at about $10 billion.
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you can see broadcom on the move. up 2% we will keep an eye on that. shery: given the corporate news and the impeachment vote, it is not surprising investors may want to just sit on the sidelines. take a look at these odds. trumprket saint president is going to be impeached. they are at a high. it is also likely he completes his first term. not surprising that given after the vote, it goes to the senate. it is a republican-controlled senate. they will begin trial next week. -- next month. mitch mcconnell think there is zero chance the president will be convicted and removed. you need a two thirds vote in the senate. let us turn to the house of representatives where we are seeing that debate. that is expected to be around six hours.
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the vote expected to make president trump the third u.s. president in history to be impeached. chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli, joining us from capitol hill. seems to be aote done deal. about potential defections. democrats voting against impeachment or republicans joining the impeachment process. the 31 democrats that were over and 2615. -- 2016. there are a handful of democrats president trump and mitch mcconnell can point to and say the entire democratic party did not necessarily vote in unison. nancy pelosi saying it is a sweeping effort of a diverse
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caucus. terms ofke a look in the process we are going through, we are halfway through. we are anticipating the impeachment vote will occur sometime behind 5:00 p.m. new york time. president trump scheduled to travel to battle creek, michigan where he will hold a campaign rally. this will be scheduled at 7 p.m. new york time which will coincide at the conclusion of the impeachment vote. president trump taking it straight to the campaign trail. in states like michigan where he was only able to beat hillary clinton by less than .5%. the reelection efforts tell me they feel this is not going to be the impeachment issue that voters and mexican -- and michigan will move poll numbers. amanda: it is interesting
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because when we talk about democrats voting against, you can perceive that as a positive thing. they take it seriously. this is a legal process. not something you whip your caucus on. it is a political thing. we heard from mitch mcconnell this is not something he will view any other way. is it truly political? do folks who supported president trump yesterday support him tomorrow? >> speaker pelosi says it is our constitutional duty to do this. president trump has called pelosi's efforts " and attempted up." i whether or not it will answer and the battleground states it has not moved the needle. the policy coupling around the impeachment vote gets interesting. speaker pelosi met with democratic caucus members and
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advancing the budget to keep the government open. as well as discussing usmca. that is very much on track to get past tomorrow. theing a victory to president but also the democrats in a more moderate district. they need to go back to constituents and said they did something other than votes to impeach. amanda: great to have you with us. >> any time. amanda: the floodgates have opened in the bond market. they continue to capitalize on cheaper funding because. sharpxt cso warns of warnings. rosenberg is with us now. there have been too many weird things. too much easy money for too long. the cycle going on longer than
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anticipated. you are looking at corporate balance sheets. alix: -- david: we have had over $4 trillion finance capital expenditure we will have a productivity stigall or rate of return. it will cover the surface and cost. context -- where has the money gone? amanda: stock buyback. david: that is the biggest reason we have had the ongoing bull market in equity. it is a symbiotic relationship. you have the corporate bond issue financing stock buyback. it is what i call smoke and mirrors. you're talking specifically about the spread between triple
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c's and double b's. that is what happens. the canary in the coal mine. amanda: when you talk about a game of musical chairs, somebody does not have a checkered who is the somebody? they are very happy to have stock evaluation. who could suffer? david: who is holding onto the corporate tax? it could be pension fund, mutual funds. and a gamutmpanies of institutional investors. it is not a banking issue. the banks are in great shape. it is about the non-bank financial institutions. you get the spread widening. don't forget the financial markets are correlated with each other. once you get that and one part of the bond market, it makes funding less accessible. that is where the lag tends to hit.
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the problems in the mortgage to 12 started about six months. amanda: what about the fact that some kind and show -- shery: that some financial conditions remain accommodating as of yet. what would you say to traditional economists that this is related to growth? financial conditions are absolutely accommodative. why is it that fourth-quarter gdp growth looks like it is getting below 1%? i am doing the count on the fourth quarter. i cannot get my numbers above 1%. we slowed down to 2% last year. people die financial conditions and that they are easy. financial conditions are easy because of the boom in financial
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asset. i would say that when you are looking at the broad gamut of numbers, the economy is in stutter mode. i am not seeing any signs -- any indicator it is at its lowest level. i am not seeing global economy accelerating. people fixate on one or two months of noise. the financial conditions are not stimulating the economy. if you're talking about financial conditions, negative interest rates, you would look at your. you are looking at the german economy. it is barely growing. the financial conditions may be giving you an impulse as an investor to go along. it is doing nothing for economic activity. shery: can you count on the health of consumers in the u.s.? david: that is the big question going into next year. will the consumer hang on? there is no question it is
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difficult to get a gdp recession when 70% of the economy does not go down. economy or half of that 70% are in things like essentials that never go down. you are talking about cyclical spending. i am starting to notice a shift. looking at the retail sales numbers, they have been negative two out of the past three months. i laughed when i hear fed officials talk about the resilience. been a divide lately. we are seeing a discretionary spending whether it is restaurants, jewelry, clothing, sporting goods. they have started to slow down materially. acceleratingill the grocery stores. when you are eating in and not out consumers are becoming more frugal.
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are we going to start to see implement take a hit? we saw the data that came out yesterday. you are starting to see turning in the labor you market. implementtart to see if not flattened out then decline over the course of the next 3, 6, 12 months. when you have a recession like we have had, it leads to companies rationalizing on labor. we will have back-to-back quarters of negative productivity growth. you have over hired. i would look for employment numbers to soften up. that will be the last game of dominoes. we have seen rolling recession throughout the gdp. housing with the fed was tightening. it will finish with the consumer next year. in the new year he will head a new friend called rosenberg research.
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chile is breathing a sigh of relief. trade tensions ease between u.s. and china. my conversation with the chilean minister of trade. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: the u.s. china trade word has had spill a. i spoke with chilean vice minister of trade, roderigo yane z, about hit how it took a toll on his economy. >> the trade has decreased 9% is exposed to lester. half of the exports had to do with corporate. china is our main market.
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the news is good coming from that situation. the better our economy will perform. our trade policy looks to work. we want to increase trade and services. we want to better engage with global change. that is the discussion we want to have with canada. certaintye have more in markets given the agreement by the u.s. and china. it explains a lot of the downturn of our economy and trade. amanda: we have seen shifting supply chains because of the tension. even if it gets result, some may continue. long-term effects on structural change? we follow trade divestment
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and how investments have moved. since we have a trade agreement that covers nearly 83% of the global adp, we have flexibility to move and shift markets. give more opportunities for the exports. we have not seen a trade deviation from chile. we have seen the trend. theave followed how companies and factories are moving from china into vietnam or other countries. agreements with them all. we are able to respond by supplying wherever the value chain is moving. that is something we keep a close eye on. was my conversation
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with vice minister of trade from chile. shery: miller has not shied away from his picking fights with the federal reserve. a juridical he thought the central bank was wrong to hike rates. he think things have gone too far in the other direction. eric spoke with the billionaire investor. i don't think jerome powell will have the courage to raise rates next year. i do not think they will be easing. shery: he remains bullish heading into next year. he does not think powell or trump will do anything to upset the market. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: fedex reporting second-quarter earnings after the bell with results coming below estimate. opinion, brooke sutherland, joins us with the latest. earnings appeared to be in freefall. how bad are they? >> it is bad. i think this is the fifth straight cut. it has been one thing after another. at this point you have to ask, does management have a hand on the problem? they blame timing this quarter. between thanksgiving and christmas was so short this year. they blamed rising costs to deal with the seven day a week delivery. these things have been in the works for a while. the calendar did not change from when fedex gave its last forecast update in september. i think the fact they misjudged the so badly continue to raise
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questions about his the execution there? one of the things that is extraordinary as we view --ex as a lost its relationship with amazon? the changes happening there. something structural change. >> i don't think what we saw from fedex yesterday is reflective of what we are seeing in a broader economy. with aas struggled downturn in the industrial economy. they rely on that business to business shipping. that tends to be a lot more profitable than delivering e-commerce shipments to consumer. idiosyncraticis challenges. some of it is -- they have gotten in their own way. if you look at the ability to manage e-commerce, they have
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spent billions of dollars to revamp the network. ups is starting to see the returns while fedex has not. you have at other things like of things that have wrong -- have brought headaches. a lot of things working against fedex. not necessarily a knock on the broader economy. amanda: brooke sutherland always good to have you here. a reminder to bloomberg users. you can interact with the charts you have seen on the network. it is g tv . from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. the house of representatives is debating and will vote today on two impeachment articles accusing president trump of abusing his power and obstructing congress'
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investigation of his actions toward ukraine. opening the ukraine -- opening the debate, nancy pelosi called him an ongoing threat to our national security. founder'sdly our vision of a republic is under threat from actions of the white house. that is why, today, as speaker of the house i solemnly and sadly open the debate on the impeachment of the president of the united states. if we do not act now, we would be derelict in our duty. reckless actions make impeachment necessary. he gave us no choice. >> the chairman of the house judiciary committee, jerrold nadler, said trump rochus oath of office and they cannot wait for the 2020 election. says theepublican president did nothing wrong


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