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tv   Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power  Bloomberg  December 23, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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radio audiences worldwide, i am kevin cirilli. carol: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, i am carol massar. welcome to "balance of power" where the world of politics meets the world of business. we start with boeing. joining us from princeton's george ferguson, our senior aerospace analyst. he is follow the industry and this company closely. -- this latest development, and a year where we are seeing ceos quickly being fired, i'm not totally surprised by this. what is your take away? george: a lot of people were not surprised. the timing was accelerated by the problems the other day, the boeing space capsule that was shot into orbit was supposed to link up with the international space station. the big take away here is it seemed like boeing and the faa -- were notthe same
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communicating well as the year ended. faarecent surprise is the was not ready to review the boeing until mid february to finish the review. dennis muilenburg could be back in fleets by year end. this disconnect surprised a lot of people. that was the beginning of the end for dennis's career at boeing. kevin: in terms of the shareholder response and the washington response, how have people been reacting to the news? george: we have seen shares up. was about this act trying to keep any further slippage in the timeline, trying to keep the max in front of the faa and reviewed and cooperated and looking like you're
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cooperated with the faa. i do not think it accelerates anything. i want to follow up. what is interesting is this is a company that is known for its checklist. for pilots talking to engineers, we have a great story in bloomberg businessweek on this and how there was a breakdown. what needs to change. is it a big change within the boeing culture going back to where it used to be? george: boeing used to have a much more transparent culture. when dennis muilenburg took over enjoying the success of a lot of max sales and looking forward to years of rising production rates and better profitability. they took the eye off the ball executing on programs and this is all about going back to executing on programs. isin, in the near term, it about cooperating with your
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constituencies, showing transparency to your constituencies. it can be the faa, it can be employees, it can be investors. boeing has to reopen itself to better communication with those groups. kevin: let me pick up on something carol just said. when it comes to the faa, here in washington, they have been increasingly skeptical of boeing's leadership. as we hit restart on the next decade, how is boeing going to change that tune? how will they forge new relationships, new dynamics with the faa? showed it has to start from the top. going to a ceo that is work together with regulators around the world to help get the airplane reevaluated and back into service. calhoun has ad reputation of being able to do that. he was at ge after 9/11 when he
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had to work with customers a lot to help manage a change in delivery schedules after the 9/11 attacks. it seems like he has particular experience in working with customers, working with employees through difficult times. it will start from the top and that is why they chose david calhoun. kevin: that is a great point. our thanks to george ferguson of bloomberg intelligence. a busy holiday start for you. let's turn the focus to ukraine. new details emerging over when president trump asked about military aid to the country. joining us is bill faries who leads our national security coverage at bloomberg news. it has been a busy 24 hours in terms of what this might mean for the senate impeachment trial. potentiallyhowing an hour and a half after president trump was on the phone with president zelinski in july, that military aid, $400 million worth, was frozen. i am hearing from my sources on capitol hill this will not
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change the dynamic of the senate impeachment trial. the: the president -- president has always maintained his call was perfect and there was nothing in the partial transcript that suggest he did anything wrong. his critics state what the transcripts showed was an impeachable offense. i do not think the new information will bridge that chasm at this point. what we know from some of the more recent documents is that the president was looking into the ukraine aid issue ahead of this call and he had pentagon officials starting to ask questions about it. there was also concern among some of his aides that a hold on that aid would be improper or illegal. carol: that is what i think is interesting. kevin is hearing this from some of his sources. in terms of the timeline, it has changed. it is now earlier. how does that change how we should view whether or not this was improper in terms of the president making this reach? issue, one of the
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big issues has always been what did the ukrainians know and when did they know it and how they interpret what was going on in washington? we know from some of the testimony that came out that there was a lot of concern the or nervousness on the ukrainian side trying to figure out what the u.s. is doing and who speaks for the united states. we had the parallel tracks going on between rudy giuliani and some people associated with him and more of the official track done by state department officials. at the center of that is the temporary ambassador, bill taylor, who is dealing with both times and himself trying to wonder what was going on. then: that what you said, difference between rudy giuliani and the state department is going to be fascinating to watch as that unfolds as the month and years ahead. switching to north korea, we were talking about this before we came on air.
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north korea in the news in the 48 hours. bill: they have promised a christmas gift to president trump or the american people. kevin: a good gift or a bad gift? you never know. bill: this is the year when no one wants a gift from north korea. pentagon officials are on high alert watching for any signs of intercontinental ballistic missile launch or any kind of a weapon test. the north koreans have top this up so much over the past month or so that it would almost be, it would be a surprise if they do not do something. kim jong-un gives a big speech every january 1. that will also be something we are analyzing to see whether he talks about recent events or whether he is promising a more pessimistic. carol: you have the former security advisor john bolton coming out and saying the trump administration should admit it
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has been a failure in terms of its policy to north korea. layer this on top what this means. bill: john bolton was always a skeptic of what was going on, but he laid it out frankly here. he says we are three years into this administration. they are continuing to build their nuclear arsenal none of what we have done has resulted in improvement in the situation. carol: have to leave on that note. much appreciated. bill faries joining us from bloomberg news in washington. time to get a check on the markets. abigail doolittle is here with us. i was trying to rush to get you. it is a quiet day. abigial: you are right about that. very quiet week. the volume is 31% below the average. a lot of investors have checked out ahead of the holiday. the big news is boeing, that stock is up nicely. only the best day in six weeks. not a huge move. it is up. it shows investors have some
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relief and are moving along. from a technical standpoint, it is showing starting to change -- starting to trade higher and arrange showing 2020 could have this rally. carol: any other stories you are watching? abigial: the real story this year beyond the smaller story is the fact that this year we have stocks up in a huge way. the s&p 500 up 20%, on-base birds best year in 2013 -- on --e for its first year in since 2013. hard to believe you could have big gains, but strategists are bullish for next year. carol: when too many people are bullish, you get nervous. thank you so much. abigail doolittle. let's turn to mark crumpton for bloomberg first word news. mark: one democratic lawmaker says he is keeping an open mind when it comes to the president impeachment trial. alabama democratic senator doug jones says his colleagues have
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some gaps in their case. is calling the allegations against president trump an impeachable matter" but he needs to hear cooperating testimony before making up his mind. dennis muilenburg is out as boeing ceo. -- involving its top-selling jetline. the 737 max has been grounded since march and boeing has temporarily halted its output. david calhoun will replace dennis muilenburg. the former ge executive has been serving as chairman since october. in spain, state prosecutors are asking a judge to maintain the international arrest warrant for the former catalan leader. the two are attempting to take seats in the parliament. they are wanted in spain for their roles in of former 2017 succession bit by the catalan
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government and separatist lawmakers. the men fled to belgium after the attempt failed. a tiny community near the canadian border known for casting the nation's first ballots just after the stroke of midnight in presidential elections may need to skip that tradition in 2020. election officials say dix bill knox, new hampshire is missing a required official to hold the primary. the current population is four. global news -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. kevin? kevin: thank you, mark. happy holidays. a new twist in the impeachment saga as the senate waits for speaker pelosi to deliver the articles. we will debated with our all-star political panel. ons is "balance of power"
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bloomberg tv and radio. ♪
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carol: this is "balance of power " on bloomberg television and radio. i am carol massar in new york. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli in washington, d.c.. here with us in washington is republican strategist eric wilson and from san francisco, democratic activist we can mitchell. i will start with you. these developments with regards to the email with ukraine 90 minutes after the phone call between president trump and president zelensky, will that change the dynamics? debate over whether
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the articles will go over, who has to send them, it is distinction without a difference because nancy pelosi already made her democrats walk the plank and vote for impeachment, especially those democrats in those districts president trump once. i that we have the same question. i am curious about what kevin just asked. has any of this changed in terms of the ukraine timing and the conversation the president had with ukrainian president? does any of this change your thinking about the impeachment proceedings? the republicans in the senate have made it clear they are going to acquit the president. marginally we have seen that impeachment seems -- it is not clear how this has helped the american people. it is help the democrats are tiny bit, but i did not see this any kind of game changing move. you make of nancy
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pelosi and her delays. there has been a lot of focus on that. how do you see it? plate is to give chuck schumer more time to try to get four republicans to agree to the radical notion of calling witnesses and being able to call witnesses and have a real trial. if she is unable to do that, she will pass it on to the senate and have the trial and the time they've always wanted. i do not see this as a big deal. underestimating nancy pelosi is something people do at their own peril. there were a lot of republicans who thought she was not going to get the boats. she would not of begun the impeachment process if she did not have the votes. think it continues to be a problem for democrats because we have seen a party switch in new jersey. pennsylvania 8 was moved from liens democrats a tossup, and we just heard about doug jones who is struggling with this. i think it is the democrats who are in a tough position. lincoln: you're right.
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doug jones took the radical right-wing position that would heed would see some evidence first. the fact that u.s. senator said i want to see some evidence is now seen as big news, and that tells you little bit about where we stand. as far as pennsylvania 8, note the most likely outcome, and i think everyone agrees is that by the time of the iowa caucus, trump has been acquitted in the trial is over. the november election is 10 months away. by then, i do not know what the economy will be, i do not know who the nominee will be, but i'm sure we will not be talking about impeachment. there is 10 months to go. when the republican senator quits, which they will, one thing we have to keep in mind is that is not a get out of jail free card to trump, but it is encouragement to push the boundaries and break the law. the voters do not like that. that is why more than 50% are supporting removal and acquittal. let's dive down
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into the battleground states. in terms of switching gears to the 2020 election, how are the biden,r candidates, joe elizabeth warren, and bernie sanders, who has been incredibly consistent in terms of his poll numbers, much underestimated by the rival campaigns. how's that going to play out in this horse race in january? nothing ifrnie is not consistent. all of the battleground states, trump is in the 42% to 45% window. the better-known's democrats, the bidens are doing about 47% to 40%. what that tells us is it will be close in those states. one issue that has been overlooked is the issue of age replacement. as older voters potentially die and younger voters come into the electorate, that helps the
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democrats. the michigan electorate, the wisconsin electorate, the pennsylvania electorate. right now it is a more favorable electorate for the democratic nominee than it was in 2016. trumps challenge is to bring in, if not the democrats, it is trump who does have to bring in new voters. carol: where is the trump administration? how can they go after the younger voters? aic: i think they are doing great job reaching out to younger voters online. people who are my age are paying attention to the impeachment and understand the case against the president is weak. they hear the people like senator doug jones saying i do not see any evidence. i feel like i'm at the christmas table with my family. no one is voting on impeachment in the battleground states. there voting on trade, they voting on the economy.
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eric: that is why it is dangerous for democrats because they are not talking about the candidates working their tails up and ion, new hampshire, south carolina. is there'll be a lot of time between the acquittal and the election. what this will come down to is if the economy remain strong, trump will run on that and the democrats will run on the other criticisms of trump and that is what the election will come down to. carol: what will come down to is the economy. looking a base that is for someone who understands the economy, who can filter it through, but does not like the president. impeachment is baked in because the democrats used impeachment to get a majority in the house in 2018. your opinion about donald trump has not changed in this endeavor. i thought we would be looking at other issues on election day. it is not going to be about
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impeachment. supporters of the president understand how critical it is him to have majorities in the senate and the house. impeachment ends up being a net benefit to republicans other than democrats. be aln: right now seems to net benefit to democrats. i think it wasn't 2018. when we get to the general election, the democrats will run health care, guns, and climate change. those are all issues that help the democrats. right now we have two data points. one is a strong economy. someoneary republican, like ted cruz, marco rubio, would be walking to reelection easily right now. we also this other data point. trumps poll numbers are so low. carol: we could continue for another 60 minutes. have to leave it there. eric wilson and lincoln mitchell. thank you so much. this is "balance of power" on
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bloomberg tv and radio. ♪
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>> on behalf of myself and the boeing company, we are sorry, deeply and truly sorry. the airplane will return to service when it is safe. this is not going to be timeline driven. we are currently testing the final software updates. when ready, and with faa approval we will proceed to a certification flight in the near term. we have not blamed the pilots. i know that has been reported, but that is not our company position. it never will be. we are committed to answering every question regulators have in the airplane will fly when everyone is convinced it is safe. that is the most important thing. boeingthat was former ceo dennis muilenburg testifying before the senate commerce committee in october.
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he was fired today and will be replaced by david calhoun. kailey leinz joining us with the stock of the hour. boeing shares are higher. kailey: the market has taken kindly to this. boeing had had a solid run under dennis muilenburg. we ran into -- it will be trivializing to call it speed bumps. weekend,liner over the but than the ongoing saga of the 737 max, the grounding of the plane, the uncertainty surrounding its recertification. carol: the last week has been crazy. kailey: boeing announcing it has the halted element of the plane. it is their big money maker. they had 4000 of these on backlog. that is a timeline that is uncertain. we saw him speaking in october and are still no closer to a resolution. carol: you guys were watching the hearings. this is a big story and it continues to be one. kevin: i am three us as to whether or not the optimism is
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warranted and whether the new ceo will be able to accelerate the timeline to get the plane recertified. carol: that is a great question. kailey: the answer is that it will not accelerate the timeline but it may mean there are not additional delays. dennis muilenburg has at the plane will be recertified by the end of 2019 and the faa says that is not happening. at the earliest it is january 2023. bloomberg reporting 30 minutes ago that calhoun did call the faa chief. it seems the repairing of the relationship may be starting to happen already. recertification is a separate issue. carol: kailey leinz, thank you very much. coming up, we will talk with atfor on theof str biggest risk for the global economy. this is "balance of power." ♪
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carol: kevin: kevin: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm kevin cirilli in washington,
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d.c. carol: i'm carol massar. courta saudi arabia and has done ap poll guilty in the murder of jamal khashoggi. he was killed that the saudi consulate in istanbul last year. will be executed for the crime and another three in prison for 24 years. turkey's foreign ministry says the convictions are on a satisfactory because they don't reveal who ordered the killing. russian president vladimir putin today inaugurated a massive railway bridge to crimea. for thethe train opening of the 1.9-mile bridge, the longest in europe. the multibillion-dollar project is intended to bolster legs between russia and crimea. it is aimed at increasing the transport of cargo and encouraging flow of tourists. russia annexed the peninsula from ukraine in 2014. french president emmanuel follow theomised to same pension rules as everyone else is not doing much to
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appease striking voters. he told a french paper he would give up his right to a pension for life, a privilege french presidents has had for more than 60 years. today is the 19th day of strikes over the government plans to raise the retirement age to 64. here in the u.s., democratic candidate amy klobuchar says she will become the first major 2020 candidate to have visited all 99 counties in iowa. whominnesota senator visited 27 counties in the past four days, says she will convene on friday. the tour interest in her campaign has grown in recent months thanks to strong debate performances on f. , though in polling she still trails the top candidates for the nomination. joe biden, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and pete buttigieg. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than
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2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. carol: 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. , so to havempton. as 2019 fades recession fears. globale outlook for the economy and beyond in 2020 is rodger baker, stratfor's senior vice president for strategy. nice to have you here with us. a story on the bloomberg came out over the weekend that said chart of the economy, the world lives on. the global economy is really stumbling into 2020. how do you see the global economy next year? rodger: we are a little pessimistic. certainly, there is room for slow, gradual recovery in many parts of the world but we're eying many several crises that in and of themselves would not cause major problems, but that they start to compound or come together at the same time, there
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could be some serious challenges for global economic activity. carol: we love specifics, so be specific. if you had to rank your top two or three, what would it be for 2020? defaultthe argentine will be a big issue. it is not the people are not used to an argentine default, but looking at that as one of the aspects. we see similar social dynamics middle east,n the north africa. we think that can continue. some of those could pop out of whack. looking in china, they have their internal debt issues which are still problematic. they have started to slow down the output in regards to belt and road. in there,still fits and we don't see the tensions easing. we expect it to start back up for the end of the quarter. kevin: you didn't mention trade tariffs. i wonder how important they are
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to getting a phase one done in january is in terms of the global outlook for the calendar year. don't really see the sort of the phase one that has been announced so far as being a real substantial change. mostly what it does is reduces the likelihood of additional tariffs coming on in the near term. a lot of the structural issues between the u.s. and china remain in place. issues on technology in particular will be there, issues on ip. these are things that have bipartisan support in pushing against china stronger. with the wto being weakened without its current mechanisms, brexit coming on this year, we really do see these types of underlying aspects still being things that will be driving slowdowns or uncertainty and instability. up because in the
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next year, you'll have democrats saying the economy is about to head off a cliff, and republicans will say, it's never been better. is it good, bad, are we out of the clear for recession? rodger: i would never say the u.s. is out of the clear for recession, that would be terribly bold. we have seen stock markets be strong for a while, there may be a readjustment in the market. then there is the question whether the markets and the economy is the same thing. that is something that is stirring up, when you look at the way that voters, individual americans look at it, which may play into the upcoming election. carol: in terms of central-bank policy, they are willing to keep money easy globally for a long time. u.s. elections play an interesting role, in that by springtime, the central bank will decide what their monetary
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policy will be for the u.s. they will not play around too much closer to the election. i wonder what kind of stabilizing force that is ultimately for the u.s., and for the world at large? rodger: certainly, if the u.s. relatively easy, easy access to money, that is a suggestion for other countries to follow through, but we are already seeing people move out rate.t negative interest we may finally be coming out of that post crisis mode, at least in tentative steps. in terms of where things go with korea, you look at the korean peninsula and how things are incredibly fluid. how will that play into all of this? rodger: we certainly see north korea has come out and basically, in a series of internal and external theyncements, have stated
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are going back to shifting their policy, ease away from the idea of trying to engage in talks with the u.s. in the near term. they seem to be willing to accept that they will not fuss on sanctions. people need to be self-reliant again, that they have been able to weather storms for 70 years, and will continue to do that. in andct an increase what the west would call provocative behavior. butably not anytime soon, certainly an expansion of s.ssile test we would not doubt to see in the first quarter the north koreans do another satellite or long-range missile test. be an incredibly busy next couple of days on that issue. thank you, rodger baker. coming up, we will be talking china trade with chad brown, senior fellow at the peterson institute. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
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carol: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm carol massar in new york. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli in washington, d.c. china is cutting import tariffs on a wide range of goods including goods and parts for manufacturing. for more on this between the u.s. and china, we welcome chad bown, from the peterson institute. also, the cohost of the trade talks podcast, which i'm a big fan of. we got some positive trait developments earlier this morning with china saying they are going to slice some tariffs. what do we know? chad: i agree it is good news,
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consistent with how china has behaved during the entire period of the trade war. even in the worst of times, when the u.s. was imposing higher tariffs, and china was retaliating with u.s. exports, china has been lowering its tariffs from stuff coming in from the rest of the world partially to offset the cost of its own economy, the tariffs it is imposing on the united states. morning they were continuing on is another step in that direction, not that surprising, but a positive sign. kevin: president trump on friday came out and said things are going great on the u.s. china trade front. contrast, has taken a much more cautious response ever since this agreement between the u.s. and china on phase one. it is a study in contrasts. why is that? ms. to manageit
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expectations. it may be that there may be some lingering disagreement in terms of what is actually embedded in the deal. we have been told on the american side that it is apparently and 86-page legal agreement between the u.s. and china that would be hopefully signed in early january, enter into force shortly thereafter. but until the public can see what is in the text that's been signed by the two sides, form their own independent assessment of it, we will be bolded to with the trump administration's version is, versus what the chinese government's interpretation is. included, are, me looking for included, are looking for to seeing what is actually written down in the deal. carol: i wonder in terms of the tea leaves, as kevin laid out what china did over the weekend, they have also been releasing measures to shore up the private
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sector, opening up some of their previously closed industries. i think what we need to see from china is whether things are changing. are they acting more likely developed nation or a developing nation when it comes to trade and abiding by the rules. when you look at the news flow and the news we are getting from china, are they become more like a developed nation, excepting g thoseules -- acceptin rules? taking babyre steps, they have been doing that throughout the trade war. they have been taking on additional amendments whether it is doing with intellectual certain, opening up sectors, financial services, to increase competition from abroad. china is doing some of it on their own time. one of the important things to look up for in terms of the in januaryoming out is what the new system of
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enforcement will be between the u.s. and china. resolveit that will inevitable frictions that come up, and how is it that we are going to do with those, so we don't end up back in this tariff world and trade war, from before this deal was announced. kevin: we were just speaking with rodger baker and he really laid out hong kong and the issue that that could have on global risks associated with hong kong and those protests. how does that factor into all of this? chad: that is the thing. even aside from the tariffs and trade war, there are a number of other really big geopolitical issues involving china right now, whether it is hong kong, there,est taking place
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external players and their concerns with shin jen, some of the challenges, the way that china is treating its minority population. we are far from the state where we can claim that things are going to be easy sailing between china and the rest of the world oil foreseeable future. there are a number of areas of conflict -- carol: obviously having some technical problems. we will try to get back to him. what's interesting, china come in the meantime, there is a story in the bloomberg talking about how they are working on a free-trade agreement with israel. china meantime, you have developing a lot of different deals, trade agreements with a lot of developing nations, nations around the world, moving forward on their long-term plan. there, external players and their what this means potentially between china and the united states. kevin: so glad you brought up
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israel. given the political dynamics in israel right now, to see that headline across the bloomberg in terms of what that will mean for china is fascinating. havebeing told that we chad back. you,l put the question to where all of this goes with all of this international volatility going on. and youre xi jinping are staring down an election from the u.s., not to mention than expected political outflow from around the world, is he really able to continue to play the long game? will he have to make some short-term calls? chad: i do think china is always playing the long game. living in a are very interesting position with having to essentially trying to diagnose the tea leaves of american politics, what will
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happen in our election of november 2020. obviously, if there is a new administration, they may decide to treat some of the issues confronting the relationship differently than the trump administration has been. back to your other point, china is negotiating with other countries in its own region to open up further. there is a question about whether india wants to be a part of this trade agreement going on there. there is progress taking place, and that is another area where sometime early this spring we may see an announcement of further opening between the major players in asia region itself. there is a lot of dynamic stuff going on. carol: that will be an important story for 2020. we constantly talk about this bifurcation in the world, where there is china and its allies with trade and other geopolitical events, the u.s.,
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europe and others. is that where we are heading in 2020, will we see more headlines to support that? chad: i think that is one to watch out for, even on the u.s. china relationship. what has been interesting, watching the trade representative over the last week or so doing a lot more public speaking in media that he has in the past. one of the things that he stressed repeatedly is potential conflict on horizon between the u.s. and europe. that may be another thing to watch out for. carol: chad bown, thank you. senior fellow at the peterson institute. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
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going on.
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kevin: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm kevin cirilli in washington, d.c. carol: i'm carol massar from new york.
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back for months, you would have found plenty of talk that the u.s. economy was headed for a major slowdown. since then, times of change. economic data has proven resilient and investors and economists have backed up on that recession talk. moynihan spoke to david westin in an exclusive interview, and they talked about the health of the u.s. economy. >> the idea of the economy slowing down, the question was could be will be a it was not going to keep going? that was the debate that was raised in 2019. the yield curve inverted. the worldwide slow that was another aspect. 1.7 is our estimate for next year. the debate was it is slowing down but it will it not keep slowing down? it was clear that was not the case but everybody was talking themselves into that was the case.
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into it a couple of geopolitical discussions. in the last four months, you have seen things resolve, even though we had people say would affected, impeachment, and it has not changed the effect of the market. carol: i want to talk about the consumer. we also had three rate cuts from the fed. how much did that slow the decline? >> as the fed said in the minutes, discussion around this, it was insurance to put more accommodation in the economy to make sure that decline in the bottomed out, or that people thought it would bottom out. as you have looked at the statistics, they have all started moving back north. tough on the institutional, commercial side. there was a true inventory recession in the first art of the year. fed,e consumer side, the
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the confidence they are ready to put that on the table. carol: the fed seems to be indicating they are staying pat until things change through 2020. do they need to keep cutting to keep growth going? >> i don't think they do because of the consumer. last time we talked, we were talking in monthly year-over-year growth rate for consumers at that time being 5.8%. closer to six now. holiday spending is up double digits from last year. you are seeing it now through cyber monday, great discussions between people about how many days until christmas. even now you are seeing the growth rate at 6% year-over-year , almost 10%rds overall. a lot of spending going on. we feel very good about the consumer in the u.s.. that is two thirds of the u.s. , almost 10% overall.
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a lot of spending going on. economy, as big as the chinese economy. in europe, consumers are spending also. that is a big part of the world economy that is solidly moving forward. >> you have a vantage point into the consumer that very few have. when you look below the top line numbers of the consumer, do you see any over performance, underperformance, socioeconomically, geographically, is it spread out evenly? are seeing some weight growth in the median income area -- growing faster now, which is good. the fed is trying to make sure that the type labor market translates to people's income growth. that has been consistent from chair yellen to chair powell now. is a good thing. that means there is more money for more people. we see.ight we see that translate into broad-based spending. there is a little bit of difficulty about spending on
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things versus experiences. you are seeing them both remain strong with additional emphasis electronics,s, things that are not necessarily a car, things that people can consume. from what you see, can we keep this going with respect to the consumer? do you have to have more people working or higher productivity. we are not getting more people working in terms of the population size. productivity growth is not as robust as it has been. do you have to have more people working or higher productivity. >> we are in this equilibrium where the job growth is enough to absorb the population. ,ou see the participation rates the underemployment rate coming down. those are good things. the at sparks -- experts talk about a lot of potential slack out there, people that we could
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be pulling in. the long-term question is you will run out of those people at some point with unemployment going further south, underemployment also coming down. that is the question about immigration, getting a bipartisan structural thing that feeds immigration issue into a population growth and economic growth issue, away from the other things that get tied up in it. bank of america ceo brian moynihan speaking to david westin. balance of power continues on bloomberg radio. thank you so much for watching. join me at 2:00 for bloomberg businessweek on bloomberg radio. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪ what are you doing back there, junior?
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. this is "etf iq ." tale of two years. etf flows show caution ring for most of the year until risk took over in november. how does that set us up for 2020? we get passive aggressive with the big three. what is fueling the fire of etf adoptions. the holiday season calls for an etf


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