tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg December 26, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
xfinity customer service simple, easy, awesome. not my thing. paul: good morning. i'm paul allen and sydney. we are under an hour away from the market open in japan and south korea. from: good evening bloomberg world headquarters in new york. i'm shery ahn. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin and co. will import. daybreakwatching " asia." -- i'm sophie kamaruddin in .uala lumpur paul: our top stories this friday -- christmas cheer for friday aztec gains internet -- as tech 9000
nasdaq above 9000 for the first time. --ry: let's get used to let's get you started with a quick check of how markets closed. it was a holiday shortened week, but we saw some markets adding to those gains, those record highs, so the s&p 500 was led higher by consumer companies. nordstrom, macy's, jcpenney all advancing. not to mention u.s. jobless claims fell to a three-week low. today the biggest gainer after saying this holiday season was record-breaking. that surpassed and closed above 9000 for the first time, but usp stocks under -- u.s. stocks under a little pressure at the moment. let's turn to sophie for what to watch.
sophie: that post christmas lull. -- low -- japanese futures nudging higher. some green chips could top this, which snapped an eight-day drop. in tokyo, we watch for reaction to a report that the president of three japan companies will step down following scandals in the insurance unit. we are also keeping an eye on retailers across the region after amazon reported a record-breaking holiday season and gold miners in asia and .ydney checking in on spot gold this support withing other commodities, which has helped push a bloomberg gauge of raw materials to a 13-month high. as for the yen, it is pretty much where it began the year, headed for a third week lower against the dollar while we wait
for a bunch of japanese eco-data this morning. from china, we will be getting decline,l profits that reflecting a slower pace of decline. this morning, cable trading steady after wild swings on christmas day. thank you. let's delve deeper into market moves. we saw those gains in tech. we have the nasdaq now gaining 36% year-to-date. how much of today's move was due to just the consumer narrative out there? collects all of it, i would say, all driven by amazon, hitting that record-breaking holiday season, like you mentioned, doing really well for the tech sector as a whole, but also really rallying on that trade optimism. nasdaq and the tech sector as a whole really leading those gains
. everything looks super great at the end of the year. paul: what made things super great for amazon? the holiday shopping season or something more? >> it was definitely the holiday shopping season that sent shares of today. that said, amazon has then a pretty good example of what we should be watching for the broader market, and that is those concerns about the american consumer, especially after trade tensions where the massive narrative was as long as we have strong consumers, the economy is ok for regardless of what happens in the manufacturing sector in the trade front. amazon showed us the consumer has not hindered -- has not been hindered by those fears. this gtd chart on the bloomberg. interesting, it has not really moved in line with the philadelphia semiconductor index. in september, apple just took off, and it has really been
rallying. we are seeing the best year in a decade or so. tell us what is behind this move. >> it's interesting because we are seeing a complete shift in narrative. apple was under pressure for quite a few months because it was fighting deterioration in chinese economic data but also trade uncertainty and that is what was driving the philadelphia semiconductor index down as well. we are seeing the stocks index up 52%, apple up 82% on the year. i think it is being driven by that trait optimism still. they are finding a way to appeal to the consumer, going around those supply chain issues, and investors are ready to take on that risk. paul: thanks so much for joining us. let's get to first word news with karina mitchell. karina: cleanup operation is
under way in the east philippines after a typhoon killed at least 16 people and left thousands more stranded. rescue teams say several people are still reported missing. pope francis led prayers at the for affectedursday families. widespread protests continue in india against the government's -- newizenship-based religion-based citizenship law. at least when he five people have been killed and thousands detained since protests began. speaking at a rally wednesday, the prime minister showed no signs of concession and produce -- and criticized protesters. shinzo abe is facing a tough and to 2019 amid allegations of corruption. the latest poll finds his popularity rating has sunk to its lowest level in more than a year, falling below 40%. he's the country's longest-serving premier and has been able to deflect scandals in the past, but the latest allegations pose a serious threat to his chances of a
fourth term. and japan's national broadcaster issued a hasty retraction in the early hours of friday morning after mistakenly issuing a nationwide alert of a north korean missile launch heading over the country. in hk sent it accidentally issued a practice alert warning that a north korean missile had fallen 2000 kilometers east of a akaido.-- east of it is the second time they have made a false alert. paul: thanks. we are counting down to economic data coming up in japan, including jobless numbers. prime minister shinzo abe and the boj push for corporate's to boost wages.
formberg's senior editor "daybreak," brian fowler, joins us now. what is the just of the prime minister's comments? -- what is the just -- what is the gist? something prime minister abe has said for years, asking companies to reciprocate by boosting wages in hopes that would support sentiment and lead to a positive cycle of consumption leading to increased output and increased output leading to increased economic growth, which, in turn, would keep the cycle going with better spending. companies have not responded very well. this year, the wage hike negotiations came out with an average 2%, 2.1% increase in wages, below the 3% needed to boost inflation to the 2% boj target according to economist.
prime minister abe did point out that the last time tokyo hosted the olympics in 1964, the average wage hike was 12%. i don't think he is aiming for that this time around, but he would definitely like to see companies do a little bit better in the spring. close we are nowhere near to the cpi target. this chart on the bloomberg showing the national cpi numbers, and you can see nowhere near that 2% inflation target. what are we expecting for the tokyo cpi numbers coming out , a leading indicator of national price trends, not to mention industrial production of retail sales and eco-data we are expecting? >> i think the data today will pretty much tell the complete story of what prime minister of a was talking about. first of all, on the cpi front, we expect to see headline cpi come in a little bit higher than last month, zero .9% from
december, up from 0.8% previous months. that, of course, is less than half the inflation target the boj has maintained for several years. also, we will see jobless data. we expect those numbers to show a steady and very low jobless rate of 2.4%, indicating that companies at least are hiring, doing their part to keep the market strong. the problem is retail sales and department store sales, which decreases aware from 1.7% to 5% year on year, depending on which numbers you are looking at. that's the real problem because it shows consumers are not confident enough to be spending money, and prime minister abe thinks if companies would lift wages, maybe consumers would be a little bit more bullish and more likely to consume.
paul: combined with that pledge, expectation of hope from shinzo abe and retired labor market, where are the wage increases? what is industry's response to this call? industry chiefs have noted the problem and have not responded to anything very direct, but we did have this survey and the nikkei, which ceo'sresponses from 100 of japan's biggest companies regarding their outlook for the economy, and, as usual, there's good news and bad news. the good news is they are less concerned about the global economic outlook and the impact that might have on japan, and that is mainly due to monetary easing by the fed and other central banks around the world. on the other hand, they do point out they have concerns about domestic consumption, and of course, that is the exact problem the prime minister is also worried about.
the key question will be -- do the companies respond i lifting wages in hopes that it does spark a positive cycle, or will they fear a downturn in consumption and therefore be less likely to hike wages because they are trying to save money and keep margins robust? for joining usu from tokyo, our "daybreak" senior editor. you can get around about the stories you need to get going on our bloomberg network. still ahead, we will get you those numbers out of japan. we are talking about the jobless rate, cpi, retail, and industrial production figures. afterl get them to you the break. paul: first, we will discuss the aonomic outlook for 2020 with
is "daybreak asia." i'm shery ahn a new york. 2020'sur next guest says tolook will be similar 2019's. what is your 2020 growth outlook for asia? >> we are not seeing anyone really standing out at this point. what we are particularly looking at is how the trade war plays out. at the moment, it's looking like the u.s. and china are making really good ground toward inking the phase i agreement and further strides going forward. as long as those stay on track,
that's really good news for the rest of the region because asia was really hurt in 2019 by this trade dispute. paul: what the trade dispute taketh away as well. is there a chance phase two could cause a few difficulties next year? quick -- definitely. it is unlikely they will really get results to a meaningful extent in 2020. it will likely be the can gets kicked down the road and the presidential election in the u.s. becomes a greater priority and focusing on local economic issues in the u.s. rather than the trade dispute with china. shery: what are the chances economic activity has already been frontloaded by economists and people in china? they seemed to think the trade tensions would get worse, and yet they did not. >> there is a possibility. we could have a situation where
it is kind of a sigh of relief as well. frontloaded.been on the flipside, now that the trade dispute is not getting worse, that is an improvement on sentiment, and we know that sentiment has been an impact channel for the trade war. wella really good thing as if the trade dispute continues to not deteriorate. shery: despite trade sentiment being pretty bad this year, we have seen central banks surround asia supporting their economies, right? but recently, we continue to see a few central banks holding steady. the be ok, the rba not doing more to support their economy. much from emissions do they have left? >> that's a good question. our overall take is that central
banks in asia do not have a lot of ammunition left, so if global conditions deteriorate in these economies such as korea, germany, new zealand, really do need a lot more additional support, the focus really has to shift away from what central banks can do to support the economy because of the lack of potency in monetary policy, and toward things like what can fiscal policy do, so what can the government do to provide more tailored support to shore up domestic demand if the situation deteriorates and the global economy that then is inherited by these local economies? paul: we have seen some examples of that as well. recently, japan, new zealand promising infrastructure spending. >> we have seen governments, particularly in japan, really step up and take the reins from the bank of japan, so pressure on the bank of japan has really
noed so the conversation is longer about what the bank of japan can do or what they should do to reinvigorate their economy but now what the government can do to really step up. while infrastructure spending is a positive thing, it does not really have a short-term or medium-term impact on gdp growth because of the lag time with infrastructure spending coming through. we do need to see more kind of immediate measures as we are trying to reinvigorate the economy. paul: we are going to get a health check on japan this hour. i know you've got a choppy outlook for japan in 2020, haven't you? >> yes, we do. it is looking very choppy, so the odds of japan going back into recession are high, following the consumption tax hike. we have seen the october data , thatkely november data
could flow through to the first quarter. we should see a bit of a pickup heading into the tokyo olympics in 2020, and then after that, it's not looking so good as well. in japane jobless rate has been pretty interesting, right? we are seeing the tightest labor market in decades, but at the same time, the rate has ticked up. we do see risk of a technical recession this year, what happens to these employment figures? >> the employment figures, in japan, it is not really what it seems. unemployment is very low, and at first glance, that indicates a labor market that is very tight, but you can see that labor market tightening has slowed in japan, so if we do start to see conditions interior rate further -- for example, exports contracting through 2019, and if that continues and if japan goes into recession, we will see the
labor market with a lag start to ease further, so it's likely the unemployment rate will take a little higher, but not substantially higher because what is keeping it so low is of course the aging population. for joining so much us. don't forget, our interactive tv function, tv . you can watch us live, catch up on past interviews, and dial into any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. you can also become part of the conversation and send us instant messages during our show. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪
spoke out challenging senate leader -- senate majority leader mitch mcconnell's approach to the trial. >> we have to take that step back from being handing glove with the defense. i heard what leader mcconnell had said. hasppen to think that that further confused the process. let's cross to d.c. and our reporter, greg sullivan. the house impeachment vote was clearly along party lines. what are the chances republicans could flip in the senate trial? >> we just heard from senator makowski saying she was disturbed by the majority leader's process, but it still does not indicate there is likely to be a removal. as you said, the house voted among party lines. no republicans supported the impeachment of president trump,
and as of right now, most republicans are sticking by president trump. what does this mean, this hesitancy of senator murkowski from alaska? it comes down to two things, what does she want to do, how disturbed she, what kind of take, does she want to and are there other senate republicans who want to join her? if so, it might bend process of how they hold the trial from what the white house wants. far too many republican voters support him and their elected senators are unlikely to abandon ship. paul: there's really not a lot of precedent for this kind of thing, is there? greg: that's right. leader, the majority does have a lot of leeway in how he wants to set it up. in american history, only two presidents have actually been impeached, and neither have been removed from office.
was nott nixon impeached, but congress was preparing to impeach him when he resigned. not a ton of precedent. we know senator mcconnell wants a speedy trial and we have senator makowski saying we need to be more independent, potentially review this process, so we know when the house since the articles over to the senate, that is what they will immediately be focused on. shery: exactly. with speaker pelosi delaying the articles of impeachment, what is the latest progress on that front? when could we see that being sent to the senate? >> that's right. before nancy pelosi spoke out, all sides pointed to the fact the senate would hold a january trial, but right after the house voted on impeachment over the withheld ukrainian military aid and some obstructing of congressional investigations, nancy pelosi held a press conference where she said she was waiting to send over
articles of impeachment and suggested it might be linked to how the senate is going to hold this process. there is some procedure here. as i said, once they do send the articles, the senate has to take it up and do it immediately, and before the break, there were some other things the senate had to get done first. it is still possible and even likely the senate could turn to that in january, but we will have to see. sullivan in d.c., thanks for joining us. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines, china's security brokerages have a record number of analysts on the payrolls after a fourth straight year of hiring, bucking a global trend. analysts register the securities association of china climbed to more than 2300, and 8% increase from 2018. by comparison, the analyst headcount shrank at the fastest pace since 2012. shery: home sales in mumbai
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shery: we are awaiting those numbers out of japan. right now, the jobless rate coming in at 2.2%, missing estimates. the estimate was for growth of 2.4% or the jobless rate coming in higher, so it is actually coming in lower than expected. also the job to applicant ratio coming in at 1.50 seven, which means 100 57 applicants for 100 jobs, so we are also seeing 150 jobs per 100 applicants. we are also seeing cpi year on year growth. this is an acceleration from the previous month, and remember, the focus cpi is the leading indicator of nationwide price
trends. we have seen fresh fruit prices pickup from levels in november. the core cpi, though, excluding those fresh food year on year growth of 0.8 percent, which is also beating estimates of growth of 0.6%. again, the jobless rate coming in lower than expected, 2.2%. we had seen unemployment rates creeping slightly higher, so now we are seeing them fall back. core cpi, .8% on year. let's turn to sophie for what to watch as we await the open in korea and japan. sophie: ahead of cash trade, two full trading days left in 2019, a few points shy of 2200 points, and of course, for a fourth annual gain after the index recovered from lowe's hit back in august led by electronics,
seeing those gains as a slump in tech demand showing signs of a turnaround, but jumping into the terminal, the economy in south korea has not managed a recovery after 12 straight months of falling exports with gdp set for the worst performance since 2009, which has authorities adopting measures to shore up growth and finance minister is to meet with the company chief later this morning to ask plane his 2020 economic blueprint for south korea and amid speculation the be ok may turn to unconventional policy, the central bank did note in its 2020 policy direction it would study tools other than interest rates next year while maintaining an accommodative stance. paul: thanks, sophie. let's get to karina mitchell now for first word headlines. karina: israel is awaiting the results of a vote to see if prime minister benjamin netanyahu will retain control of his party and lead it into the next election. the governing party held a leadership vote thursday with .etanyahu facing a challenge
the country is set for an unprecedented third election in less than a year in march after two inconclusive votes. china's first domestically made aircraft carrier sailed through the taiwan strait. it's the second time in two months beijing has sent the carrier through the straight. -- it described last month's maneuver is routine training. large crowds across southeast asia gathered to watch a rare so-called ring of fire solar eclipse thursday. the eclipse caused the sun to transform into a dark orbit for more than two minutes. it could be seen along a path stretching from india and pakistan to thailand and indonesia. the previous solar clips was in 2017.
i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks. japan's national broadcaster mistakenly issued a missile alert, only to retract it minutes later. this is amid concerns north korea may launch an intercontinental ballistic missile over the holiday season. our east asia government editor joins us from tokyo. what happened there? around midnight hk issued an alert that north korea landed a missile near akaido. few minutescted a later. the reason it caused such concern was that north korea has shown its to pleasure with the current state of nuclear talks , made a united states rhetorical promise of a
christmas gift for donald trump, depending how the u.s. was reacting to its overtures to ease sanctions on the country. tensions were high. this alert came, took about 20 stoked to fix, but it concerns many people had that north korea would be doing something tied to the christmas holiday. exactly, with north korea's kim jong-un hinting there could be a christmas gift. christmas has passed and nothing has happened. as the window still open? >> the main thing people are focusing their attention on his kim jong-un's new year's address, the biggest address since the tradition has started. he speaks to north korean people and talks about the policy directives of one of the world's most secretive states. one of the elements would be his approach to the nuclear talks and if he is going to end his icbm'sium on testing of
and nuclear weapons. he has put this on hold for two years as he has had discussions with donald trump on ending north korea's nuclear programs. the thing is, he gave trump a year and deadline to ease up on sanctions that have really been saysng his economy, or kim he will be taking a new path. we are trying or find out what this nupathe will be. thatll get a better idea january 1, but before that , trying to get policy coordinated before he makes his key address, which will be closely watched to see where north korea will be going. shery: we will be watching that. thank you. standard chartered says the world is irreversibly changing because of the rumbling u.s.-china trade war, but the bank still sees a reasonably
robust global economy. ceo phil winter spoke to bloomberg at the new economy forum in beijing and explained on theis extremely long chinese economy. >> in the short term, of course, 5.86%s pressure, but growth, the underlying dynamism is strong and will continue to get stronger. >> if you look at the what economy, it seems we are in better footing. is it still fragile? >> we know there's lots of things going on in the geopolitical world, but otherwise i think it is a reasonably robust economy. will persistebt for a little while. good,k it is pretty actually. it feels like we have made some of the adjustments related to the initial phase of the trade war.
we are optimistic we can avoid the detour, and i can tell you we are continuing to invest as if the economy will steadily improve over the next year and a half. iftalking about u.s.-china, we sustain this trade floor without a trade deal but without getting worse, what do you think will happen? >> supply chains are steadily reality. to this we are also seeing as recently as last night that some of the companies are really feeling the pain. it is very difficult for apple to run their business. that's not a good thing for u.s. consumers. i would say this flexibility on both sides. into the holiday season. is it more like what we get a phase i deal because of the
impact it could have on consumers right before christmas? right now, the business community and to a certain extent the consumer community believes that a piece or at least a detente will be coming stop, people will begin to taking actions one takes if they think tariff increases are pending. it is a confidence thing is much as a behavior thing. >> has a u.s.-china trade war actually changed the world economy forever because supply chains have changed, and will go back to normal. high a much more prevalent value-added producer, but, no, the world has changed forever. ae confidence and supply from
single source has reduced. people will be arranging alternative supply chains, and i'm afraid they will be building more and more at home. i say i'm afraid because we all know we should be doing things as they can be done best and there will be less of that. standard china's speaking to francine lacqua at the new economy forum in beijing. an exclusive interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
our guest discusses societal pressures and challenges female leaders face in china. tell us a little been about her and also your key takeaways from this conversation. selina: she grew evernote in just a few years to 20 million users in china and a few years ago, she moved to the united states to start her own venture 1/10 and in the u.s., only of decision-makers at firms are women. i asked about what has changed since she first started her fund in the u.s., and i want to focus on the particular challenges she faced as a woman and not only a
woman but i minority woman who had just moved from china. take a listen. >> i think every time people look at me and find out on the managing partner of the firm, or sometimes i go to the conference , and people ask why i'm there, and say it is only for judge, and i say i'm the judge. representup, i can minority women in the industry. selina: how would you contrast your experience of being a tech executive an investor in the u.s. and china? >> i think from a gender perspective, there are more women in china when i go to a conference than female tech executives, so i feel more comfortable in the u.s.
there are still not as many partners as there should be, but definitely in the u.s., there's a lot of awareness around we in thehave more women conference, so i think there is a lot of experts pushing for that. in china, i have not seen that. i hope there will be more and more, so i'm trying to encourage young women to take advantage of havingortunity and also more of my female executive friends show up enter talk about their experiences. -- and to talk about their experiences. selina: you say there is an awareness issue, right? >> yes, because the past few years has seen crazy growth for the chinese tech industry. when it comes to the company's culture or if there is a balanced gender, i think there
is a lack of awareness or willingness to learn in some tech companies. there are many all-male venture firms in china. problems there? >> there's all-male venture firms in china for sure and i hope they would be able to realize it and welcome more women. that mean there is still a glass ceiling, but it is just invisible and not talked about? >> i think for a lot of the younger associates in the firm, definitely -- i think they need to speak up more and try to show that they are as capable as their male colleagues, but -- we i think there's
need awareness from executives to realize they have to promote more female colleagues. is a much china, it younger industry, so do you think that brings benefits to women given that it is not as well developed? muchmature industry is a longer cycle industry. yourkes time to build track record. .or example, five or six years venturechinese industries, we are young. if it's male or female, they ind to be a little patient terms of shouldering their track record. the venture industry is a hard industry because it takes longer
to pull yourself. china: female leaders in do not talk as much about the business pressures they face as much as the societal pressures they face. do you feel those? >> i think there definitely are. culture-wise, if you have a family, as a wife, you need to take care of the family. u.s., you hear people talk about splitting equally. you take care of kids one day, you take care another day. in china, i think most times it is supposed to be a wife's responsibility just from a cultural perspective. that assumption is definitely there. that leaves a lot of pressure when it comes to balancing life and work. and also for young women like single women, people ask after your marriage status or case status, so that gives a lot of pressure as well. hopefully, it will change, but it is still there yet.
we also spoke about the challenges she faces as a result of the u.s.-china trade war. arestart -- startups concerned about partnering with chinese companies and because of that she said startups are more likely to stay local rather than aglow global -- rather than go global. shery: thank you. selina wang joining us from beijing, our china correspondent with that exclusive conversation. let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. apple shares hit another record high p or the tech giant remains on track for the best annual performance in a decade. it's 2019 rally has seen a gain of more than 80%, adding about $513 billion in market value. investors remain positive on the
stock thanks to strong early data on holiday spending for key pods andsuch as air the latest iphone. paul: amazon shares surged as it touted its holiday season success. the company said more people tried primed than ever before and there was a record-breaking holiday season as well for independent third-party sellers. the holiday season generates 1/5 of the retailer's revenue each year. we have breaking news for you coming out of japan. we have the industrial production numbers for the month of november coming in slightly better than expected. .9%. a contraction of there was a survey expectation the contraction would be 1%, so a little bit unexpected and a big turnaround from the big contraction we saw in october of 4.5 percent. on here, that stacks up to an 8.1% contraction.
industrial production also struggling. we are getting numbers from retail sales out as well, and something of a disappointment. on month for november, four point 5% increase. the market was expecting a 5% increase. that is at least a turnaround from those numbers we saw in october. more than a 14% contraction on the back of the sales tax consumption increase, so on year, we have a number there, a contraction of 2.1%, again, worse than the expected 1.7% contraction. shery: let's bring in our asia cross assets manager for a reaction to these numbers. let me start with retail sales. the gdp chart on the bloomberg aows every time we have consumption tax hike in japan, back in 2014, now in 2019, consumption, retail sales, household spending has tanked. that has been followed by a
recession. how much of today's numbers on the disappointment we see is a reflection of the hike we saw in october? is exactly right. japanese officials have been saying for weeks if not months that this time around, the sales was not going to generate the kind of distortion in the economy seen on previous really, a but textbook example of what you would expect. people started to buy a lot more items before the sales tax hike kicked in october 1, and then they have pared back spending since. the numbers we have had this morning suggest that economist expectations for a contraction in the economy this quarter remain spot on. this is one reason why the japanese government has been compiling a special fiscal
package to try to get the economy growing next year. the hope will be that it will just be a one-quarter contraction, there will be an improvement in the new year, and it won't be an outright recession. those industrial production numbers, we see continued impact from the trade war that has hit japanese exporters pretty hard. the other big hope as the year turns will be that the u.s. and , as anticipated, signed that phase one trade deal in january. that improves the trade picture, startport volumes can picking up. industrial production starts picking up. the fiscal package kicks in, so then we've got the olympics in the summer, so 2020 starts to look a little better. paul: there are some rays of sunshine in these numbers for sure.
we also have a line from the bank of japan summary of opinions, which has also just been released, one member saying it is vital to keep sustainable growth in the policy mix. haveese numbers -- we also the jobless numbers as well -- does this change the picture for the bank of japan in 2020? >> not really. the bank of japan is in a very tight place. they have deployed so much monetary firepower since abe-nomics began some seven years back that they have really kind of exhausted the armory, as it were, and this comment by this board member talking about the importance of the monetary fiscal mix, and we actually heard this from governor kuroda just yesterday, is an important signal that there will be a little more oomph from the
paul: good morning. i am paul allen in sydney. shery: good evening. i am shery ahn. i'm sophie kamaruddin in kuala lumpur. you are watching "daybreak asia ." paul: our top stories this friday, asian investors are hoping for gains as christmas cheer gives u.s. markets a bump and boost. it is mixed for japanese eco-data. factory output fell again. retail