tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg December 27, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
>> coming up on bloomberg best, the year's most compelling conversations on business, finance and politics in asia. there was no skipping the trade tensions that cap china and the u.s. at odds. -- cap's china and the u.s. at ept china and the u.s. at odds. may combine [inaudible] >> these interest rates are low for a prolonged period.
that wascal leaders challenges both internal and external. >> how long are you willing to take before you take legal action? >> we are very patient. like china is allowed to have industrial policy. >> all central banks are moving towards lower rates and i don't think china can escape that. warhe headlines, the trade has put america on their heel as far as investing in china. facedancial leaders have in the economic future. >> medium term policy continues to be positive. >> it is straight ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best.
>> hello and welcome. on this special edition of bloomberg best, we will look back at 2019 in asia by revisiting some of the year's most interesting interviews with newsmakers, policymakers and leading figures in business and finance will stop let's begin with the conversation with a powerful than -- figure at the center of the chinese economy. never conducted an interview with foreign media until he sat down with bloomberg. began on then topic of trade negotiations between china and the u.s. that we's position is negotiation ofnd
and faith mutually respect we have three positions. , if wethat we should have a deal, we should remove all the additional tariffs since the trade war. the second is we are going to increase purchase from the united states, that the amount should be realistic and a third one is that the tax of the agreement -- text of the agreement should be balanced in terms of responsibility on both sides. that is our position. i think at this point, we have ofcome up with some idea overcoming the tremendous difficulty ahead of us. we do not like a trade war. we can solve our
mutuallyes through [inaudible] >> what are they broader impacts from the financial sector? liquidity level for the economy is plenty. we have plenty of overall liquidity. i would say that the smaller , given theyorarily cuts and also given our channelctivities to liquidity to smaller banks and institutions,ial problem will be
getting better soon. >> the government has taken a number of second two -- steps to open the financial market. what are the areas that could open further? , thee financial opening security firms, commercial banks , it is very good news for china. it will enhance our service to our people and also make the financial industry more competitive and at the same time , a tremendous opportunity in china. comparativee a advantage in manufacturing goods whereas the u.s., u.k. and europe, they have a comparative
advantage in financial services so this is my theory that if they open our market, if we trade with each other, they will be both benefit. >> could be trade make it harder for u.s. bank to take advantage and benefit from some of the measures to open up the financial sectors? >> i hope not. i hope we can treat everybody fairly equally and minimize the negative impact of the global trade war and, but you see this is not a unilateral game. certainlyecide, i don't want to have a negative this is a two body game and it is up to other decide andalso active in goodwill.
>> still ahead on the year in conversation in asia, global investors assess the impact of the trade war and nobody is happy. >> to have a major trade war would be very bad for both countries. >> i would not -- rather not do a deal then do a deal. >> we will hear from some of the region's leaders in monetary policy. --tremendous expressions expectations in terms of central banks. >> this is bloomberg. ♪
control and expand our quarters and strength in the evening further. are willingse, you to take on this risk of these rising costs if you need to do so to stimulate the economy question mark >> yes, but at the we may combine various [inaudible] potential side effects. >> at sign -- sounds like a very interesting recipe. haveare saying they ammunition and can be more.
chairman jay powell has said we can do it if we have to. could cut the negative rate further if we need to do so, but i wanted to come back and you do or about what boj can maybe we can do something else. do you still have the capacity to show all those people that you can do something big, even something new? >> it is for options. further increasing the amount of committeend further to increase the monetary base
and so forth. options, i think we can still utilize if necessary how we coulde and theine, that depends on yesncial conditions, but like mario draghi, i think we can do these things. in 2019, the monetary authority of singapore responded to a third quarter economic slump by easing for the first time in three years, but it was smaller than expected. interview, hee was told it was unfair to share
it alone. crisisglobal financial and consequently holding up the tremendousomy is .nrealistic expectations i think that is wrong and i think it is wrong for central banks to see that expectation. it cannot be that every slowdown , every risk of a threat has risk of losing monetary policy. it has not been sufficiently addressed, partly because too much weight has been placed on monetary policy. it is exceedingly unfair on the central bank community. theet's talk about possibly
technical recession, singapore ,scaped a possible recession but not to the extent that some people expected. what are some of the optimism receipt for 2020? you do not want to deplete all of your politics -- policy buffers. let's see how the data comes out the next two quarters. the assessment is whether this is bottoming out and whether we will see a modest recovery next year will stop if that is the case, then we are in pretty good shape, but if things take a turn for the worse, i think you need .ome ammunition if necessary, we are prepared to [inaudible]
space. >> when you take a look at central banks, ready to cut rates, ready to go to negative, for singapore, how might it look question mark -- like? >> we have a fair amount. >> the reserve bank of new zealand surprise investors with a 50 basis point rate cut in august and then it's a prize again by not cutting rates at its november meeting. exclusive,bloomberg adrian or explain his reasoning to kathleen hays. thehe first thing interstate -- interest rate at 1%. been belowe rate has
a mores, also adding to stimulating nature. is that maximum level, so people have jobs, people have incomes and the real confidence comes down to the government entering the fray as well. >> are you counting on a stimulus from the government question mark >> very much so. there are significant demands on of --ption and a lot challenge is always been lags. i assume you expected some market reaction. was it a bit of a surprise?
>> one of the biggest debates landed on thee decision, was how do you communicate this so it doesn't create unwanted efforts? the desire is you can deliver a which leads conditions broadly in the same space where they were and that is what has happened. they are all different, just levelsnt shades of loose and the interest rates. i think the important message to get to the market is that these interest rates are low for a prolonged period. it is well down my list of things to worry about. >> much more to come as we
finance and politics in asia. way was a focal point of u.s.-china tensions this year. thetrump administration put company on a blacklist in may, citing security concerns. just days after this, the ceo denied that the company had ever stolen intellectual property and said they were being targeted because of success. he spoke exclusively at the company's headquarters. the u.s. has never bought products from us. even if it want to buy in the future, and -- i may not sell to them. not -- ils me, and my may not answer. i see his tweets because they're laughable -- and i think they are laughable because they are
self-contradictory. >> the list of companies are now cutting off the supplies are growing. i guess the question is, for how long can huawei survive without them? managers its own companies. the u.s. is not the international police they cannot manage the whole world. if some countries want to work with us, it is like a hole in the airplane. we are working to fix the hole, but the airplane can still fly. the chips we have been using, half are from u.s. companies and
half we produce ourselves. if the u.s. imposes further restrictions, we will reduce our purchases from the u.s. and use our own chips. if american companies have permission from washington to self from us, we will continue to buy from them. you put inctly have place in terms of contingencies? we might have contingency plans for the core of the airplane, the engine and fuel tank come a but we may not have a plan for the wings. we need to review the situation all over again and fix those problems. you can come back to interview us into two or three years and see if we still exist. remember gone, please to bring a flower for our grave. >> [inaudible]
does that lead get eroded? if we slowdown because they winged of the airplane has lots of holes. if we fly slowly, and others like fast, of course they will fly fast but we will again once the whole is fixed. >> how much damage to you expect in the consumer part of the business, so start -- smartphones and chips? miss our expected growth target, but we are still growing, being able to grow in the toughest environment lets us know how right we are. rightsyou have bragging as the number two smartphone maker, you saw sales jump by about 50% and you have that goal of becoming the number one
smartphone maker in the world. >> we can become bigger or smaller. we are not a public company. it is good enough for us just to survive. >> there have been calls by some in china for beijing to retaliate against apple. is that an action that china should look at taking? >> that will not happen first of all and second of all am a if that happens, i will be the first to protest. apple is the world's leading company. if there was no apple, there was no -- would be no mobile internet. teacher.my as a student, why should i oppose my teacher? >> the critics will say that you
got to where you are through intellectual property theft and government support. what is your response to that? the u.s. has not developed that connect -- that technology, so where would i steal it? if we were behind, trump would not need to make so many efforts to attacks us -- to attack us. he attacks us because we are more advanced than then. let's plenty more to talk about -- >> 20 more to talk about -- plenty more to talk about. [inaudible] >> and later, thoughts on the financial fallout from hong kong's ongoing crisis of civil unrest will stop >> -- unrest. >> this is bloomberg.
juliette: welcome back. i am juliette saly. this is a special edition of "bloomberg best", wrapping up to 19 in asia by playing back the. years top interviews our guests spoke to bloomberg about their trade top strategies. let's begin with indian -- indonesian president joko widodo. the man known as jokowi told the bloomberg editor-in-chief he plans to use his second term in office to introduce a wide range of reforms.
>> we compete against other countries in attracting investment to create jobs. complaints to investors on labor law or owes expressed to me, especially from the labor-intensive sector. they also expressed a need to solidify licensing. we will work on these two as soon as possible. i will discuss with the labor unions how to revise the labor laws without causing a loss to workers. industry can expand foreign investors can, invest, and help create jobs, so indonesian children can work in available sectors. >> is that your priority? review introduced the lobby for the end of this year? >> yes. , but iy is labor law have to talk to the labor unions. we will also propose 74 laws under the omnibus law so licensing can be simplified. negative investment list will be reviewed to attract investment and provide jobs.
>> you also have this negative investment list which you have you would you said fully open up 25 sectors such as telecoms or education, but that has not happened yet. do you have a timetable to open up those sectors where you can fully buy companies in indonesia? >> still in process. we will see the revision in the end of this year. for education, we will provide room for foreign universities to set up universities. in special economic zones foreign hospitals, with the latest technology will also be allowed, but in special economic zones. also, in the technology sector, we will provide room. we will see in the year-end. you will see many sectors removed from the negative investment list to create more jobs. >> biggest thing in the global economy which hurt indonesia and
her the world was a u.s.-china dispute. i suppose that is a dispute where people in southeast asia have to decide who's side they are on. whose side you feel as if you are on? indonesia is in the middle. want to get opportunities because the trade war not good for all countries, but indonesia opportunity. we have good relations with the u.s. and china, and the most important thing is our national interest comes first. juliette: the government of malaysia spent much of the 19 dealing with the legal, financial and political fallout from the scandal involving state investment firm 1mdb. among their objectives, to recover billions of dollars from goldman sachs. the prime minister and his likely successor, both spoke excessively with bloombergs
haslinda amin about their efforts to prosecute the scandal and get compensation from goldman. haslinda: we hear from our sources that goldman tried to reach a settlement, but you referred them to the ag. is there truth in that? >> yes, it is true. everything has to be done properly, according to the law. charge when itn comes to government prosecution of any case. haslinda: did goldman offer a amount?nt >> they offered some little compensation. [laughter] clarify?u them to give you a figure. a billion dollars, more or less? >> they offered a billion ringgit come but the total amount is about 6.5 billion u.s. dollars. haslinda: how did they come up with that figure, $6.5 billion u.s.?
in terms of fees, goldman made $600 million u.s.. >> know, in talking about the total amount, not just goldman sachs. goldman sachs took 10% heftysion, in addition to interest rate of 6%. that is not usual for governments. governments normally get less than 3%. but this 10% extra that goes to goldman sachs means that we get 90% of the money raised, but we pay interest on 100%. that is what it means. made a goldman sachs killing on this case. haslinda: it has said that you are waiting for a response from goldman. what was the query? >> we wanted to settle it outside of court if possible,
but it seems that they are not willing to offer a reasonable sum of money. haslinda: for you, what is the reasonable sum? >> we went to get our 10% back, at least. haslinda: when will you take legal action? --.hat depends upon he will try to extradite things as much as possible. haslinda: how long are you willing to wait for you take legal action? >> we are very patient. [laughter] >> can't harry the court -- we can't hurry the court. that would mean interfering with the law. we can't do that. huge.is so it is another biggest financial fiasco, scandal, involving in the government in modern times.
so i think morning to be done. they need to continue to exult. they are doing that. i am not review to all reports but i am being kept informed, partly, on what is being done. haslinda: you said before that investigations should be expanded to include the project and the railway project with china. are you not satisfied with how corruption is being dealt with or investigated? >> i have stronger views on this, but we cannot deny the fact that something has been done. even the project has been renegotiated. but now that we have new evidence in court to suggest that this was part of the 1mdb deal, the certainly, you can reopen some aspects of this terms of agreement, understanding, to ensure that it is clean and transparent.
haslinda: feminist irma had their -- prime minister ma hathir has said he would like to recover $6.5 billion from goldman, on top of the assets overseas. do you share that figure? guest: i said in the review in singapore, in front of the goldman sachs chief, but i think the figure is to be left to the authorities to decide and compute. but certainly, i am more willing to share the amount. the amount must be really substantial. so are the losses. shouldern we have to all these years. we should pursue this vigorously. juliette: australia's prime minister, scott morrison, has had a challenging tight rope to walk in 2019, as a major trading
partner with china, and a staunch political ally of the u.s. he insists that australia doesn't have to choose sides in their trade dispute. it an exclusive interview before the g20 summit in june, he told us that he takes a broader view of the showdown between the two superpowers. >> it is important for both to come to the table, recognize that there is some genuine issues. we can't deny those. they have to be acknowledged. that is why i sought to do that today. we're looking on them to put that broader global economic fore, which is what the g20 is all about, by the way. it is not the g2, it is the g20. they need to create a context for global perspective of which they will be key beneficiaries. they will benefit more than any by the global economy being
stronger. >> what does australia doing all of this? there have been concerns that at some point, and it is already happening depending on who you we are beingt forced to choose between our strongest and most powerful traditional ally and i was strongest trading partner. how do you deal with that pressure? what is not sitting back and letting collateral damage happen? >> i reject the pressure. i reject the requirement to participate in this in a binary way. i think it is a false framework and it is not helpful. demand to seey a every issue in terms of conflict rather than resolution, and i think australia, in my government is going to be very positive in rejecting that dynamic because i don't think it is helpful. i don't think it is a helpful analytical framework. juliette: still to come in this special edition of "bloomberg
juliette: this is "bloomberg best." i am juliette saly. we're looking back in turning 18 in business, finance and politics in asia, through the years best interviews. leaders in finance from around the world had plenty to say about asian economy and markets this year. jamie dimon spoke exquisitely with stephen engle in may at the global china summit. he explained why investors were hanging on every twist and turn in trade negotiations.
>> we are not just afraid of the direct effect, the reverse of global trade. it can slow down global growth, heard a lot of economies around the world. >> it could. i mean, the imf is already bejecting global growth to at the rate of the global financial crisis and that is with a china deal. do you think it would be worse than that? >> i think the world economy is actually doing ok. china is growing at 6.5%. that is $1 trillion of growth. america is a most 3%, that is half $1 trillion of growth. yes, growth has slowed down, but it is still active. the one fly in the ointment would be, if this goes south, i think that could change global growth. >> do you feel that talks are getting a louder voice -- hawks are getting a louder voice in the white house, and also here, too, pushback from the comments coming from donald trump. in that sense, do you hang tough
or do you haggle for a less than ideal deal? >> i think both sides should do what is in their own best interest. hang tough, i think there are serious issues. they need to be seriously resolved. they have made a lot of progress in doing that. i think it is good for both the chinese and the americans. neither side has to do something, i think it is a terrible error to say, well, it is because you are doing well as an economy. just get the proper trade deal done. i think we should do the proper trade deal. that would rather not do a deal deal.o a bad i think it is a bad idea for america and for china. remember, japan and europe also have a vested interest in this. we are not really coordinating with them, but they would certainly like to see a proper trade deal done between china and america, then they can support it. >> the think they can overcome their differences, that is getting a verifiable timetable for implementation of their pledges, as well as reversing of the fourth technology transfers and some of the other big issues
on intellectual property? >> i do think there's anything that can't be resolved. china has already opened up a lot of its industries. they have like 100 tech industries and we have like 25. they have been doing that anyway. they need reform for bond markets and agri-markets, for transparency, rule of law. so i don't expect that chinese to do something that is not in their self-interest. want reallyn't unfair competition, let's not blow it completely out of proportion. a country like china is allowed to have industrial policy. i wish america had better industrial policy. so let's let them work it out. >> to have a major trade war would be very bad for both countries. everybody understands that. i certainly hope that they do. certainly, the u.s. ceos or have talked to understand, chinese ceos have talked to understand.
what we've got is, there is a resetting of this relationship, which makes sense. after 30 years of incredible growth in china, there needs to be resetting. there are some things that need to be addressed. do i think this will devolve into -- as a betting man -- into a trade war? i do not. there is too much self interest in keeping this thing on the rails. some people have said to me, if it doesn't happen by the g20, we have a problem -- i am not sure about the exact timing of when we need some form of resolution, but clearly, the negotiators need to figure this out. not everything, that will take decades to get done, but we need to get the tree and back on the tracks. >> what other global -- what are the global economic applications if we get a full on trade war? >> i can't predict exactly what will happen if let $250 billion tariff number kicks in, at the
bottom line is, the two largest economies in the world don't serve themselves well by engaging in a full-blown trade war. the u.s. has a surplus in services, china runs a surplus in goods. there needs to be more adjustment, more transparency, particularly about for stability transfer, and we need. >> to get this thing back on the tracks. >> globally, with the fed leading, all the central banks around the world are moving towards lower and lower rates. i don't think china can escape that phenomenon. as you know, they have erred to given up on the currency, they have decided to break that magic level, and now we are at a situation where the sky is the limit. so i think we are going to see lower rates in china and elsewhere. >> is the right move earmarked? it is liberalizing its financial system further, this is a step in the right direction. >> yes. it is a step in the right
direction, but, believe me, it is going to take a long time before china gives up control of its interest rates, and its exchange rate. i don't think we can expect a truly liberalized market for a long time to come. >> mark, looking at chinese stocks, they have gotten better than the smp all year long. given that they are getting in the weightage msci, is it all the way up, or would the weakness in the economy play a big role in how investors look at china? >> i think there are two aspects year. one, the index weighting. china's index weighting is going up. other providers are increasing the weighting of chinese stocks, which means it is of dollars of
etf and index funds have to go to china. there is no two ways about it. the other side is, don't forget, china is still growing at 5%, 6%, 7%, whatever number. this is tremendous growth. so there will be opportunities thatina to buy good stocks are yielding high dividends and growing at a good pace. >> to what extent the events in hong kong feed into how you look at the china story? are you focused on those protests in hong kong? is there a potential opportunity given the valuations are looking attractive to some in that market, or is there a potential that this is a systemic risk? >> you know, i think that is mainly an internal issue within china. , the long-term narrative, which has been happening for well over a decade, is opening up agenda of the china renminbi and local
capital markets to the rest of the world. i think if you want to call that making hong kong less important as an entryway in and out of china. our offices are in shanghai, and we do that because i think, going forward, shenzhen, shanghai and beijing to a lesser extent, are really important cities in their own right for the capital markets in china. >> are you still seeing demand in terms of inflows into your china etf's from, for example, u.s. investors? >> ok. let me say it, no. let me be very clear, the headlines, the trade war, everything going on has basically put americans on their heels as far as investing in china. there are certainly investors that -- investments that have been allocated for a while, but there was a lot of weight and see. but given that u.s. equity market performance, why bother risk?hat i do think in the long-term, it
juliette: welcome back to this special edition of "bloomberg best," summing up the year with conversation with a focus on asia. let's look at the protests in hong kong. their political roots are deep and complex. the financial impact is already hit stores in, retail spending, and gdp, but what about their long-term economic effects? howard e, deputy chief executive of the hong kong monetary authority, about investor activity in these uncertain times. >> what they are doing is still looking very much of the fundamentals of hong kong, including what we can have under
, ourne country-two system independent judiciary, our common-law system. -- the you seen foresee any pickup in these protests drag on further? >> in the past few months, hong kong has probably been the most stress prices to the world, because we offer the currency system. if we have any outflows of the hong kong dollar, we announce it almost on a real-time basis. you can see it on your bloomberg terminal. so we have not seen any outflows from the hong kong dollar since april this year. turnover unrest, there is no outflow on the hong kong dollar in the past few months. metrics,look at other say for example the hong kong dollar deposit, it is actually pretty stable in the past few months. >> would a weaker economy force you to tweak your peg, and how
are you viewing this situation right now? >> absolutely not. it wasremember the pact, introduced 36 years ago. in these 36 year period, we went through a lot of different cycles. the pact has proven that it will survive. visible,it is fairly and there's confidence index change rates, it is very strong among hong kong residents and also international investors. see no need to do changes. juliette: for another view of hong kong financial future, i spoke excessively with ocbc bank ceo, samuel tien. he says he sees little evidence that capital is living hong kong for other hand like here in the poor. >> actually, the amount of capital and while flow into singapore from hong kong is not
noticeably at. there are inquiries, i think there are interests, but we do not see any significant noticeable flow from hong kong into singapore at this stage. juliette: so you would not be looking at changing your business strategy in hong kong? >> no. we still think hong kong is an event, and it does come and it will go out a certain point in time. but i think after the event, all parties, all stakeholders will probably engage each other more, and rebuild hong kong. but that will take maybe a couple of years, 1-2 years time to rebuild hong kong, but our deleted outlook for hong kong and the region continues to be positive. juliette: that wraps up our special edition of "bloomberg best." we hope you have enjoyed these conversations from boomer televisions coverage of business, finance and politics in asia during 2019. we look forward to bringing you more news, analysis and interviews in the year ahead.
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