tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 13, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EST
growth? we are going to be joined life by valdis dombrovskis. ceo was being investigated over his ties to jeffrey epstein. we are going to hear from jes staley. we are now counting you down to the european close here on "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: we are off our lows in the u.s.. plenty of good earnings out there. but we did start out the morning with a lot of jitters regarding the exponential increase in coronavirus diagnoses. this after the methodology -- was changed. gilts. 161. and a pause in the dollar rally. did notd, some earnings
leave the street. investors getting impatient for a turnaround. the ceo says this year will be the year. guy: let's take a look at what is happening in europe. european markets since midmorning have been rallying. we are still in negative territory. first thing this morning we went down. whether or not we get back to the flatline remains to be seen. that is the direction of travel at the moment. we are seeing the pound is rallying. we are up by 7/10 of 1%. is the happened here chancellor of the exchequer has stepped down. there was clearly a power struggle taking place between number 10 and number 11 downing street. we have seen that result now. there is a centralization of power taking place. the assessment is that his
replacement is going to have little authority to resist boris johnson's desire to increase government spending. joining us now to get an assessment of this we have daily riley, bluebay asset management chief investment strategist. cracks it is a breaking story. >> this is a centralization of power taking place. as a result, they have decided that they are going to lay down the law. >> i'm curious -- this is a breaking story -- you have to wonder if boris johnson is happy about it. his jovial personality is coming into contrast with the killer instinct. this is a second bloodbath in a
reshuffle. the only real beneficiary is cummings. is it good to have your chancellor of the exchequer sacked forced to resign because he turned on the screws. the person said no, i'm not going to go along with this. especially given the overnight lines, these are not the headlines today. vonnie: give us the blueprint in terms of policy what does this mean? , what does aside this mean for government spending and for other policies? >> markets are pretty happy about the news. obstacle ishat the out. and there will be lots of spending. now we are going to find out what it means to be a conservative in the budget. other pro business? austerity seems to be over. and who is running the budget?
we are dealing with a guy who was willing and happy to have number 10 decide who of his senior advisers are going to be. what do you think of this? what is your assessment of the impact this is going to have on the gilt market? we do have a short position in guilt. we have seen gilt yield's higher. this is clearly personalities involved. javid was that saying, the budget constraints are quite meaningful. he committed to balancing the current spending or current budget. l he supported things like hs to, he was also trying to keep
the overall budget relatively tight, hence why we had stories in the u.k. press about potential tax increases or inductions in tax would be it -- tax rebates for pensions. i think the signals we are going to get a populist fiscal easing coming out of the budget. i think it takes the bank of england rate cut off of the table. i think that is going to be good for sterling and is going to be meditate -- negative for rates. when itt does it mean comes to other policy? we understand what this means, they beef we are getting an idea for government spending. but brexit? talk to me about what the signals in terms of expectations there. clearly dominic cummings is in control of the process. does this signal rated divergence? does the signally greater tolerance of expecting or
accepting trade friction? flavia: i think there are two points to be made. we are getting a sense that johnson bears a grudge. whoever is not with him, as out. loyalty carries an enormous weight. think it is also significant that the current chancellor of the exchequer was someone who was pro-brexit even in 2016. javid was sort of on the fence and was, sort of a brexiteer but decided for political expediency up was not the right moment. so now we are out with the old, and with the new. are you with johnson or cummings, the jury is still out. this and is watching they think that it is going to be a replay of the previous time, it is not going to happen. what the messages that we are willing to walk off the cliff at the end of the year.
and we are not going to ask for a transition. and we need you to believe it. i think that is a message he sent very loud and clearly. does thisvid, what mean for the bank of england? the bank has had to change its conceptions of what the british economy is going to look like several times, or at least they are in paralysis waiting to see what is going to happen in terms of trade, fiscal policy. what does this now mean? i think it makes it even more likely that the bank of england will stay on hold and in terms of interest rates. they have flip-flopped during the course of 2019 and then coming into this year with a have given signals that have been hawkish and then shifted to a dovish bias, if you like. there was speculation the bank of england makeup rates. i had always thought that would be a strange thing for them to
do, given that it was too early to determine whether there was a postelection bounce in the u.k. economy. there is some data, the surveys show there has been a have a bounce. in terms of what happened to fiscal policy as well. i think this does mean that the bank is on hold. i think it produces the likely whole -- the likelihood of a rate cut if the new chancellor does indeed read the memo from dominic cummings and understand that it is going to be about tax cuts, it is going to be about expending, it is going to be about rewarding those who voted conservative in the so-called red wall of northern england. vonnie: what does it mean for the opposition? presumably you would like to see spending happen as well? david: the opposition is too
busy talking to itself the moment, i think. obviously, working through selecting a new leader. anyhere's going to be opposition to the current administration it is likely to come in the conservative party that it is going to come from the labour party. guy: thanks so much for stopping by. away, she isou run quite literally running away. david, let me talk to you about what is happening in credit markets. we are seeing a start to the year which is exceptional. i am wondering how sustainable this is. coronavirus is -- as you said 2-year note to me -- trade for the coronavirus. the start this year in terms of credit markets has been exceptional. can you keep going? david: i don't think you can keep going on a straight line. thesed like to think that
kinds of returns can be annualized and delivered for the year as a whole. i am somewhat skeptical about that. it is hard to see what the catalyst would be for a meaningful pullback. i do think what we are seeing is markets and investors responding by getting away from growth assets and getting into those assets which are more defensive and close to central bank liquidity and liquidity of more generally. particularly in europe, where we are seeing some real strength. we had the deutsche bank deal. it was 14 times oversubscribed. guy: at the bank. bank, whichutsche until recently was one of the least liked financial institutions amongst investors. i think there has been a major mindset shift, which is
investors, including retail investors, private banks have said, actually negative rates are not going to be temporary. they are here to stay. i think eggs are looking to past the costs of negative rates on to their customers, whether they be corporate or individuals with large deposits. what we are seeing in terms of flows is that those investors are saying, actually, i need a cash substitute. so they are going into short duration higher or investment-grade credit. guy: that's for joining us. kevin reilly, bluebay asset management. vonnie: let us get a check on global markets now. >> are still in the right but we are well off the lows of the session. the s&p 500 and nasdaq down about .1%. it is the first decline on the week. .2%.toxx 600 down about
the british the surgeon today. if we can flip up the screen, that news boosting the odds of fiscal stimulus in the u.k.. volatility relative to move and , affectsd vixx volatility is relatively the lowest on record. we have a number of moving to the downside. mgm, kraft heinz, and cisco. a week outlook because of a lower global macro picture. vonnie: thank you. up next, we will be speaking with the executive vice president of the european commission, valdis dombrovskis.
♪ live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london i am guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." how hard with the eu economy hit by the coronavirus? markets are suggesting the impact could be substantial. european commission published its latest economic forecast, saying the outbreak is
a key downside risk. joining us now, valdis dombrovskis. thank you very much for joining us. can you give us any idea at this point has to the risk of the coronavirus does pose to the european economy? as regards the outlook for european economy, european economy continues to gross our forecast for this year and next. expect up the number growth of -- expect economic growth of around 1.2%. all eurozone countries and eu countries are set to grow. both this year and next. so, economic growth is indeed we outlined coronavirusast this
is one of the key risks for the economic outlook. at the current stage it is difficult to quantify because the situation is still unfolding. the echo -- the epidemic is still spreading. some travel restrictions are being imposed. at this stage it is too early to quantify the impact, but in any case we expect european economy will continue to grow. that assumption based on the fact that the coronavirus will be just a q1 phenomenon and it will be reasonably limited in terms of the fee through to the rest of the global economy? what assumptions are you making? valdis: as regards assumptions, which up -- which we have been making, i need to be technical here. the date of this forecast was already some time ago when coronavirus was still in the
early stages. makefore we did not detailed, quantified assessment and therefore we indicated as a key downsize risks. in any case, i think it is difficult to make detailed predictions, detailed assumptions because it is a new type of virus. we see that there is lots of effort done to contain it, but in our forecast which republished today we had not quantified this effect. vonnie: you are also the eu financial services chief and in december you said that the eu would be willing to cut britain off from its financial markets if britain did not exceed two level playing field rules. forst johnson says he does not want britain to have to comply with those regulations. what is the next step in this
conversation? ouris: as regards corporation how would say that only in financial services but cooperation,nomic we outline as a basic principle that the closer the u.k. stays aligned with eu regulatory the better market access we can provide. whichs a basic principle financial services also goes for our negotiations on the free trade agreement. steps, the first is to have a negotiating mandate agreement, which we expect later this month, approved by eu member states. sector, a financial withdrawal agreement which is already agreed and notified for -- to assist us to work towards
what we call equivalence mapping of the financial services. we intend to do it in the first half of this year, but once again, of course it is important concludee want to equivalence that the u.k. is not financial in terms of regulation and supervisory practices from the eu. vonnie: what is the redline? you have said that is your position. what are you willing to do in the first half of this year to cut off eu market access from britain if britain will not agree to all of the eu regulations? currently britain continues to be a part of the eu single market. we are not talking here about this year, we are talking about what happens after the transition. , which in's at the end of this
year. a this case it goes for free-trade agreement. it goes for financial services. offer britaincan better access to market for goods and services. you can offer better access in regards to financial services. the closer the u.k. stays regulatory aligned. if there is increasing divergences, we will not be able to conclude, for example, in the financial services that you regulation or supervisory 'sactices equivalent to the eu and correspondingly we would not be able to provide market access in those specific areas where divergences taking place. you have a very close relationship with the ecb. hand thatde starts to the ecb doesn't have much
admonition -- ammunition left, do you believe her? valdis: indeed. ecb has been running very accommodative, unconventional monetary policy for already quite some time. from that point of view, indeed. not much further room for maneuver. what ecb is emphasizing and the european commission is emphasizing. that we need that whole policy mix. fiscal need to look at policies and structural reform agendas in member states to ensure sustainable growth. guy: do you think that is going to happen? for instance, germany seems reticent to increase its fiscal spending. if we are heading towards another downturn -- i know your economic forecasts not suggest
that, we have a series of risks you have highlighted. do you think there is the willingness in berlin and other capitals that those that have the capability to do it should spend more? what is your sense of the willingness for that to happen? eurozone, howhe ready is the eu for the next economic downturn? valdis: in any case, we already know, we see that slow down of economic activity couple of years ago. in we are talking about 1.2% eurozone. view, thepoint of recommendation of the european commission to germany him up --, buter countries also other countries, was to send -- to stimulate the economy. we are seeing this happening. if you look at germany's budget
last year, this year, plans which are line -- outline for next year, we see substantial fiscal stimulus package. it is also concerns netherlands. both germany and netherlands have fiscal stimulus packages. forecast that their surpluses will increase substantially. vonnie: quick question about your anti-money laundering briefs. obviously, we are on the sixth directive now. at what point do you think the dirty money will be weeded out of the system? thanks have not been complying. as regards and to money laundering, indeed, it is a priority for the european commission. that webeen very clear will be imposing eu rules as regards and to money laundering.
we had a due date to transpose anti-money-laundering directive, not all member states have done so. correspondingly, we are now launching infringement procedures against those timelyes which have not transposed anti-money laundering directives. transposing for the of the competencies in area of money-laundering from member states to the eu level. on one hand we have strict anti-money-laundering rules in europe, but on the other hand we see that they are not enforced uniformly across europe and that there have been gaps and problems. correspondingly, we think that to ensure your uniform obligation of eu anti-money-laundering rules we need more competencies at eu
level. later this year european commission will be coming with proposals in this regard. guy: valdis dombrovskis thank you very much for your time. some breaking news over the last couple of minutes. all changed in the swiss banking sector. sergio looks like he is on his way out at ubs. ubs has begun a search for its ceo. the indications are the new cohead of wealth -- who has just joined from credit suisse -- is not one of the front winners. we will have more on this in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
why in just a moment. the stoxx 600 is looking like this. we are climbing back. we did not get back to flat but we are not far away. i want to talk about this story. this is the pound. we have seen a little bit of turbulence and we are getting more broking -- more breaking news over last couple minutes. there has been a briefing from the prime minister spokesperson saying the date of the 11th -- march 11 budget is by no means set in stone. he would not confirm that date. he would also not confirm when questioned the government will stick to the fiscal rules. this would add further fuel to the fire that has been in the market today that the departure concrete the idea we will see a more expansionary budget. the u.k. government is not going to stick to the fiscal rules. we will see greater levels of
spending from the u.k. government. we are seeing a british pound accuratee are up .7% -- the ftse 100 is down .25%. that is the mechanism of pound up, ftse down we have gotten used to. the dax is trading nearly higher , it is pre-much in line with the broader market. .3%.ac 40 down let's break the sector story down to give you an idea of what is happening then we will deal with the single stocks. the sector story looks like this. we are seeing a mixed picture in terms of the winners and losers. chemicals are up, utilities are trading higher. insurance is trading higher as well. both are gainers on the upside. eclectic story. more of a defensive bias in
terms of what we are seeing. we are seeing money moving back to the bond market which fits that narrative. the gas sector is down. relative to the over performance in the stock market. nevertheless the sector is leading the downside. down,nd parts is trading the car sector is under pressure. food and beverages down. there is a single stock doing the damage. let's get to the single stops and talk about what is happening. we are in the midst of the reporting season. a port outlook for the you take utilities. despite that utility sector did quite well. commerzbank, we will talk about that in more detail. the market liked what commerzbank had to say. the story will be about ubs, credit suisse, and barclays. i wanted to show you nestle. nestle is a huge heavyweight at the market is taking today's statement from the company as
confirmation it is still a way away from its growth targets. nestle adding downside wait, down 2.22%. .hat is european close vonnie: desperately seeking executives for european banks. first let's get to and improving outlook for the equity market. the s&p 500 is back to flat, it started the day down .1%. the dow is trailing the s&p. look at the selloff -- the socks has been -- the sox steadily rising. companies saying the coronavirus will not impact their sales and we have an upgrade on light materials. the dollar index is above 99. sterling appreciated relative to the dollar today. the 10 year yield at 1.62. let's dive into the s&p 500 among the different groups and stocks that are moving.
is the bestrials performer in the s&p 500, equifax as well, despite some challenges, had an excellent outlook and they are rewarding equifax. let's get to some of those on the downside. you had real dogs in earnings including kraft heinz which is down .9% at the moment. 9% because the trade is looking for a turnaround story and it is taking longer and the street is getting more impatient. netapp down 10%. it seems like those companies that are not reporting prices are getting sold off today. in some cases providing a buying opportunity according to some analysts on the street, at least when it comes to kraft heinz. guy: let's get to the banks you are just mentioning. i will start in switzerland. a final set of results at the
head of credit suisse, the outgoing ceo reports losses, which is worse than analysts had expected. he talked about his legacy at the bank and his upcoming departure with francine lacqua. >> is always a regret to leave. no major regrets. events,lk about recent but in the big picture, the strategy has worked. guy: on his way out at a credit suisse. anotherlso going to see departing as well. let's make some sense of what is happening with the swiss banks and where we are going. joining us for analysis is our european finance editor. good afternoon. awiss banking. >> it has been an intense time. can i draw and attention between
his departure and what we are seeing on the headlines when it comes to sergio? a lot of european banks are facing an enormously difficult environment and in this sort of environment it is very difficult to please shareholders, the board, and all of the various stakeholders in terms of impressing people with performance. a spine case there was scandal that targeted -- that tarnished his final month. he talked about the turnarounds he managed to bring about at credit suisse, but as we saw in today's result, the volatile trading activity and the investment banking business, they have never been able to get over how to reduce the volatility for these types of businesses. at the core of it, you are
seeing common themes and a lot of the european banks are struggling. vonnie: no better time for your absolute rival to announce their ceo is stepping down. sergio, in the last few minutes. a bloomberg exclusive suggesting kahn will not be his successor. there is basically a vacuum at the top of credit suisse's biggest rival? vacuum, do have a presumably ubs's succession plans, which was telegraphed almost a year ago on bloomberg television by dr. weber, the chairman of ubs who said ubs was in the early stages of succession planning. in the case of ubs, there does not seem to be the same kind of urgency in terms of replacing sergio are monte. it seems like a more orderly pace we expect to see will be
one where you see a plate of external as well as internal candidates. kahn completely honest, joined the firm in october. from what we understand, a relatively brief tenure to be elevated to the top post so quickly. guy: let's stay with the theme of ceos under pressure. bloomberg talked with the barclays ceo a little bit earlier on about his relationship with jeffrey epstein. staley says he is cooperating with investigators and has the full confidence of the board. >> i have been very transparent with the bank, very open and willing to discuss the relationship that i have had with him. the board has done its own review and they have looked back at my transparency and they concluded that i have been transparent and have been with
the bank and with the board all along. guy: jes staley being investigated by u.k. regulators, this is the second time. banks need to have ceos in which they can have faith. his staley for filling -- is staley fulfilling that mandate? it appears he is under a lot of pressure to show the times he has had with jeffrey epstein -- he has maintained his ties predated his tenure at barclays and were mostly built during her career at j.p. morgan chase. it is true ceos need to demonstrate the kind of conduct and integrity regulators expect. regimehe senior managers at the regulators in the u.k., it is not just -- there is risk
and there is conduct. this is one of those things that falls out of the rubric of conduct and regulators are watching carefully. guy: thank you very much. a busy day when it comes to the european banking sector. we need to talk about commerzbank. bloomberg's managing editor for banking and financing. thanks a lot. vonnie: the number of coronavirus cases sores by 15,000 overnight after a revised method of diagnosing the cases. joining us from hong kong is sophie kamaruddin. talk about the 15,000 person increase, bringing the total number to nearly 60,000. is that causing panic? sophie: those numbers asresented a 45% increase china provides methodology and it comes to diagnosing with critical symptoms. in the wake of this update we
have the who painting the adding 13,000 cases represent cases that date back days and weeks and do not represent a sudden surge in the reported number. nonetheless, it does represent a challenge when it comes to determining when we may see the peak of the outbreak, particularly as we are seeing more cases emerge elsewhere. today the u.s. confirms a 15th case in texas of a quarantined page seven -- a quarantined patient was evacuated from wuhan. guy: thank you very much indeed. sophie kamaruddin joining us with the latest out of hong kong. flat as theairbus european playmakers reacts to the difficulties facing boeing. earlier i talked to the ceo about the newly announced plan that the aircraft maker will 2020 and80 aircraft in
whether, as some analysts think, that is conservative. that number reflects our intention for 2020, which is 220tinue to offer the a family, as well as the ramping up of the 220. airbus taking 75% of the joint .enture, but also softness all and all, 880 is a good target for 2020 and what is important for us is to make sure we have sustainability and what we do. the mix is changing. 21, there is more complexity, it is a plane that fulfills the expectation of a large airline. we saw the preparation moving forward. it is an objective we think is in line with our sustainability
objectives and to continue to --form not only sure toward not only short-term but also the long term. vonnie: you have a net -- guy: do have an expectation that number is beatable? >> that is not the point. we take the objective of 880. we think it is a good objective. many things can happen. what is important for us is to deliver what customers are expecting. the 880 reflects that objective. guy: let's talk about the coronavirus. curious as to what kind of affect you see the coronavirus having more broadly, both in terms of your supply chain and in terms of your customers? that is exactly the way we look at it. upstream, downstream, our customers, and our supply chain. when it comes to customers, it
is mainly our chinese customers. very impacted by the situation. we are in a dynamic discussion event to see how we can support and help them. on our side, the respect could come from the supply chain. we have a lot of industry presence in china and i'm happy we have restarted operations at the beginning of this week. interruptionks of and one of those two weeks was because of the chinese new year. the second was on the request of the chinese government to help them put in place the measures they have taken to limit the impact of the outbreak. this being said, it is very dynamic. we are in contact with a large number of suppliers, mainly china, and this is where we are concentrating. we see a situation that is improving as we speak and we will continue to monitor that situation moving forward in a very dynamic way as we learn
more about the coronavirus itself. ceo speakingus with me earlier on today. a look at where european markets have settled. a negative day. we did see a big divergence between performance out of the u.k. and the rest of the continent. the pound affecting the british market. down over 1%. elsewhere, a much more flat session, climbing into the close. we will carry on the market coverage, particular with what is happening in u.k., on the cable show on dab digital radio. jonathan ferro is a new york, i will be joining him in london. up next, we will talk about south africa. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. the south african president will deliver his state of the union address in cape town in around 10 minutes. investors want an update on the government's efforts to turn around the economy and how much progress is being made to deal with the state utility struggling to keep the lights on. joining us with his view is colin coleman, who previously ran goldman sachs operation in south africa. he now teaches at yale. a keep doing cash can cyril ramaphosa keep doing what he is doing or doing out need to see a major shift in the approach to dealing with the south african economy? sophie: he needs to keep doing what he is doing, but there is a new sense of urgency i pickup from the people at the top levels of the government that
should be reflected by what we hear from the president. i believe there are some cornerstones of that. one is the need to get growth up. we have been below the average growth rate over the last 25 years at 3%. 1% for the last five years. that mean south africa is getting poorer. what is required is to drive growth and that means fixing the state enterprise, driving a more business friendly environment, and tracking foreign investment. in particular, the elephant in the room is s,. focused on thes youth unemployment problem and part of driving growth is to drive job opportunities. there is a new urgency the finance minister announced a national treasury document that has been adopted by the government for discussion. that involves a much more sweeping set of changes around restructuring the transport, energy, and communication sector
in south africa to drive growth. there has been too much stalemates in the policy realm and they need to get much more dynamic with what they are doing. that because of the internal flights in the anc? policy continues to appear confused. colin: the president was very effective when he replaced the other and put his people in place. cyril ramaphosa has been much more conscious in his internal party modernization and his appointments into the government in the last few years. the government system, but i think that now is the time for him to accelerate that and to take risk. obviously he is the one that needs to make the judgment about the political consequences of taking those steps. in effect, what has happened today has been effective in
terms of driving growth. in order to drive growth, you need to have the right people in the states doing the implementation. vonnie: what does cyril ramaphosa say in the state of the nation to the people? 30% unemployment is not a good place to be when economic growth is positive. in 2021.oking at 1.4% colin: that is a low population growth rate. when you have 16.5 million people in work and 9.5 million people out of work, i always believed in the absolute numbers rather than the percentages. the people involved in these things is unsustainable. you have to get growth in the front wheel of growth going. once it goes i think it will pick up. i'm feeling positive that the appointment of the ceo, who is a very experienced manager of businesses, that once you get that quality of person and place, once you get the national treasury document adopted, and
that confidence you are likely to see a far better growth output, and with it job creation. rates, the first step is 3% growth rates, which is the median and long-term potential of the economy, and then to drive greater performance. vonnie: how much can south africa do this on its own with fiscal policy and monetary policy trade and how much will it be dependent on china and the u.s.? colin: it is deftly dependent on global positions. the u.s. and china issues are important as to how they will work out for africa as a whole and africans adopting a free-trade agreement approach, which will be very helpful. the president has become the chairman of the african union. he will drive those reports in africa. the backdrop of the united states and china is the big elephant in the global economy. it will certainly have impacts
on commodity prices, on growth potential, on trade, and certainly one of the issues in the world is how the u.s. and china facing off around africa will play into south africa in particular. certainly south africa has been close to the u.s. and china and cyril ramaphosa is close to president xi jinping. guy: how big of a risk is the coronavirus for the south african economy? colin: i am not sure about the direct consequence. the ability of the coronavirus to step across the border into south africa. there has been no single crisis i am aware of. clearly if that was going to become an issue in the global economy, it would be indirectly very negative. vonnie: we have to leave it there. that speech starting at the top of the hour. colin coleman from yale university. formerly of goldman sachs. this is bloomberg. ♪ sometimes your small screen is your big screen.
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vonnie: coming up, "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and
radio. post-new hampshire analysis. checking u.s. markets, and improving tone throughout the morning but we are still lower on the dow, down .3%. the s&p and nasdaq down .1%. the philadelphia semiconductor index is higher and climbing on the likes of applied materials and other companies reporting earnings. the vix at 14 and the dollar just above 99 today. "balance of power" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, sophie kamaruddin and hong kong on china's new coronavirus cases. matt bosler in new york on fed nominees facing difficult questions, and david merritt and jump -- in london on prime minister johnson's bait cabinet shuffle. overnight we heard there were a lot more coronavirus cases than we thought they were. who said maybe we should not be too concerned about it. where are we on the number of cases? sophie: there are several ways to parse the data given the change in the methodology. the uptick is 15,000, but when you break down the numbers, 13,000 of those were under this new category, which includes diagnoses of critical systems which means it could be put to further testing, and the who noted
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