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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  February 14, 2020 10:00am-11:01am EST

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10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: consumer sentiment data from the university of michigan about to come out. 100.9 above 100 now, at for the overall data. at 92.6.ons one year inflation expectations rose to 2.5%. let's see if that makes a difference to the markets. there was retail sales data earlier, and because they are convicting accounts of what is happening in. the fight against the coronavirus. we have a bit of a gain -- happening in the fight against the coronavirus. we have a bit of a gain. we will see if this consumer
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sentiment data does anything for equities. the 10 year yield is back down to 1.58%. a little bit of buying overnight after we got some comments on the impact of the coronavirus. expedia one of those companies that seems to be immune. it has not forecast much impact from the coronavirus on travel plans and is forecasting dole digit growth. well, datacenter growth in its chips helping that company. a much higherfor performance in the s&p 500 than even the other chipmakers. there's a halo effect on some of those as well. guy: absolutely. in europe, we are down by 0.1%. euro-dollar bouncing back a little bit today despite some really dismal data out of germany. copper, this is the one you want to pay attention to. this tells you what is happening in terms of what is happening with the coronavirus inch ira -- coronavirus in china, down another 0.4%. vonnie: the death toll from the
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coronavirus continues to rise. disagreements between the u.s. and china about transparency threaten the fight. national economic council director larry kudlow criticized the response yesterday. theredlow: we thought would be a bit more transparency. we are more than willing to work with the ua joe on this, and they won't -- with the who on this, and they won't let us. i do know that apparently more and more people are suffering over there, and that is not a good thing. vonnie: beijing says u.s. health workers are welcome to come. the world health organization says nothing has been decided. let's get to beijing and bloomberg host tom mackenzie. who do we trust? where is the best information coming from? i think we still have to look at the who and their experts in terms of what they say on the virus.
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there is still uncertainty as to whether u.s. experts are allowed on the ground, and clearly, washington has been pushing that. china has been dragging its feet, even if it says you're welcome. we have had no concrete confirmation that u.s. experts will be allowed on the ground in wuhan. that is important because we are looking to these officials as they spend their time in the city, going through the data, getting their hands on the data, and seeing the patients to get a clearer idea of what they can tell us. there is still so much unknown about this disease in terms of the transmission, incubation rate, and the source of this virus, so we need those answers. if you have those u.s. experts on the ground with them, that is hopefully going to move things forward. in terms of the rate of infection, we did have that increase again of around 5000 additional infection cases. the death toll now 1380. in terms of total infections, close to 64,000, but it does
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remain largely in the province of hubei. we have some positive news around the edges in terms of potential treatments. the state media saying that a biotech company has been using plasma with antibodies for patients who have recovered. they have been injecting that back into people who are still suffering and seen positive results, so that is one area of optimism as china continues to grapple with this. on the economic front, the central bank has said they will ease loans to the real estate industry. the property sector here a major part of the economy, so that is another step to try to ease the economic pressures china is facing. guy: phase one, the trade deal comes into effect today. what effects is the coronavirus going to have on china's ability to live up to its side of the bargain? a key question. of course, we have seen tariff rates come down on both sides'
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goods, although tariffs remain on the large majority of goods traded between the two countries. whether or not china can hold up to this phase i agreement is key, as you say. ultimately, the chinese are saying we will be able to live up to those purchase agreements. that is where the key question is. can they continue to buy $200 billion of u.s. goods on top of 2017 levels? the chinese have said it is going to take time to get there now, and it is going to slow down, at least in the first quarter, but by the end of the year, we hope to be meeting that. they do not want to be seen to be walking away from this phase i deal. it is the last thing they need as they battle the coronavirus and what is going to be substantial economic impact here. they will be signaling they are committed to this deal, even if those purchase agreements are going to take a little longer to come down the line. in terms of those additional measures against huawei today, this trade fight, or at least the fight over technology, is not going away.
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we are still a ways away from phase two. trump says he wants those to start this year. no signs of structural change yet from china, but certainly they don't want to be backing away from phase one. vonnie: tom mackenzie from beijing, our thanks to you. let's get to our guest now, ,cott lender -- scott ladner horizon investments chief investment officer. how are you assessing the risk profile from coronavirus on market participants globally? scott: right now, we are like everybody else, waiting and listening to the scientists about how they are assessing the situation on the ground. why we think the market is looking through this pretty well is there is going to be an absolute wall of stimulus coming out of china, and coming out of the united states as well, in the form a federal reserve rate cuts, in this does become more severe. we think the market is doing the
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right thing to look through it from what we know right now just because of the way to stimulus coming out of china and be pretty massive. vonnie: that, coupled with better economic data today. the consumer seems to be optimistic, and it is not going anywhere. would that have you bullish on equities still? scott: it does. it is partly because of the stimulus that we already have in the pipeline. global central banks around the world have cut rates by 75 basis points over the last six months on a gdp-weighted basis. that is really not in the price yet. combine that with the unbelievably strong consumer numbers out of the u.s., contingent with the numbers you just read out, and that has us pretty bullish on the market. the positioning situation isn't quite as strong as it was in the fourth quarter. we had professional money managers buying back into this market because they missed the rally in the fourth quarter. but we have retail positioning and sentiment starting to turn for the first time in that 12
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months. once that bid starts, it can continue for a long time. we think there will be an underlying bid in the united states. guy: at the beginning of this year, everyone said you want to rotate out of the united states. if that idea dead and buried? scott: for now it is. certainly, it is better to be either in the place where the stimulus is going to happen, so actually, surprisingly china or emerging markets just because of the stimulus you can get out of those economies in response to the virus epidemic. the u.s. is probably a safe haven to be as well. europe is the odd man out. europe and japan are probably a little more challenging from an investment standpoint. we have positioned out of those areas, and we think that the u.s. and emerging markets are the place to go to concentrate your exposure on the equity side. guy: you get any sign that this thing is stabilizing, do people rotate out of big tech in the
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way they are so heavily positioned now, rotate back into energy, back into industrials? any sign of a v-shaped recovery, is that what you start thinking about? scott: energy is going to be a bit more challenging. the energy and the oil construct globally is much different than it was 10 years ago. rotation into energy might be a little more challenging. rotation into things like materials and industrials, certainly can be a little more promising. if you get that uptick, the v-shaped recovery, those are probably the areas that are more underinvested and probably more investable than something like energy. vonnie: does this period remind you of any other period? the previous month's data was revised higher. at the same time, resale -- at the same time, retail sales data came in a little bit disappointing. is there any other period that
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this might remind you of? scott: it reminds us of the mid-1990's. there is some strong commonality between the mid-1990's and what we are going through right now. the consumer is obviously very strong, feeling very good about themselves. the measure of consumer confidence, especially forward-looking, is at levels we haven't seen since the late 1990's. you have the backdrop of global central banks easing, especially the federal reserve, in the 1990's as well. and probably the most underappreciated aspect of that comparison is in regards to product of any gains, and with regards to some thing like technology, part of the reasons why rates have been stubbornly low in the fed has not understood why they are so low. the bar to hike rates from here is pretty much impossibly high. vonnie: scott, we will have to leave it there. horizonscott ladner,
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investments chief investment officer. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here's ritika gupta. ritika: retail sales in the u.s. rose for the fourth month in a row. january sales were up 0.3%. cheaper prices at the gas pump encouraged americans to spend on other goods. demand stories indicates that the consumer is the primary factor driving the nation's economy. president trump maintains he has the legal right to intervene in criminal cases, but so far, he says he hasn't done so. that was in response to attorney general william barr's criticism. he said the president's tweeting about justice department cases has made his job impossible. british prime minister boris johnson has taken more control of the u.k. treasury. that could lead to a more generous trump-style stimulus. chancellor quite as of the exchequer rather than give into demands to fire his top advisers. that suggests his reputation as
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a fiscal hawk clashed with johnson's desire for more spending. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy: thanks, ritika. coming up, a fed nominee coming under fire from both sides of the aisle for her comments on the gold standard and the fed mandate. we will talk about her chances of success next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." it's friday. kailey leinz, over to you. kailey: we are seeing relatively
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muted action across global equities. investors weigh in coronavirus earnings and retail sales in the u.s., which were nothing to get excited about. the s&p lower by about two points, the dow down as well. down in the european session as well. the sox index clinging onto a gain. what is really driving that today is nvidia, which is the second best performer in the s&p 500. that stock higher by the better part of 6%. it is really all about the revenue outlook. revenue coming up to the upside about $3 billion, but really driven by datacenter, up 43% in the quarter. that stronger outlook giving a nice look to its peers. micro -- and intel positive. we are looking at the white
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line, very close to a record high. a lot of questions have been raised about the valuation. the p/e ratio is in yellow. it is above 24, but nowhere what we saw at the height of -- at the height of the dotcom bubble. -- really beat across the board. peers benefiting from that as well. vonnie. vonnie: kailey leinz, thank you for that. one of president trump's nominees for the federal reserve board of governors, judy shelton, is coming under fire. she faced criticism from republicans as well as democrats. here's a sample of comments from the senate banking committee hearing. >> in an emergency situation, i think the most important thing is to restore that -- >> would you recommend that we deficit spend dramatically? reluctantly, if it appears
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that there is stimulus potential in doing so, but -- >> that as a yes? that is a yes. vonnie: we are joined by bloomberg federal reserve reporter matt poser. what does a governor at the federal reserve do, and what are the qualifications? reporter: whereas the fed presidents rotate in and out of the committee every two years, the fed governors always have a vote, and also take on a lot of important responsibilities at the central bank at the national level, things like supervision and regulation, big picture design of the financial system types of things, as opposed to running a big regional bank. that is the big diff in her -- that is the big difference between the governors and the president. guy: is she going to make it? i am hearing more and more comments that her nomination is going to be pulled.
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matt: it was kind of surprising to see how poorly the hearing went for her. ran into some she opposition from republican senators, as we showed in that clip. now it is looking a lot less likely. there was a story yesterday reported by the hill that, according to republican sources on the senate side, they expect at the white house to pull her nomination, but later last night , we heard from the white house saying that they expected denomination to still go through , and moreover, expected that larry kudlow would be working the hill to try to get the confirmation to go through. we will have to see how that plays out going forward. vonnie: one gop no vote and she is done. the president already tried with herman cain and stephen moore. both of those didn't get anywhere in the process. judy shelton has got the furthest in the process. why would republicans go against president trump on this particular issue? matt: as we know, republican
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senators have been pretty willing to green light trump's other appointees in other areas and go along with his policies, but the fed seems to be one area or they have been willing to stand up to him over the course of his presidency. you see the issue that they have with people blake shelton and stephen moore and herman cain -- with people like shelton and stephen moore and herman cain, they are intent on keeping mainstream people in the fed. it kind of shows how important the institution is to them at the end of the day. guy: it was interesting listening to the banking committee talk to powell the other day. senator after senator talking about the idea that fed independence was in the -- was important to them. how is this process actually working? normally, you would expect serious vetting to take place before they even were announced. they are announced at the end of the process rather than the beginning, but that doesn't seem to be happening here. matt: that's right. judy shelton would be the fifth
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trump fed nominee to be spiked if she doesn't go through. the others were fairly in the mainstream, people who were also in the same vein of some of trump poss appointments that did get through, like -- of trump's appointments that did get through, like rich clarida and powell himself. recently, these names that he has been putting forward have been more outside the mainstream. many think that is because of larry kudlow, who joined the administration later on. it seems like picks he is really leading the way on. he has personal relationships with people like stephen moore and judy shelton. at the moment, it doesn't look like this process is working out very well for them, other than chris waller, who was also a part of yesterday's hearing. he's obviously a fed insider. he didn't have to field many questions because they were so focused on judy shelton. vonnie: we should mention that judy shelton has some opinions
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on the gold standard, but also about fed mandates, so a very controversial pick. our thanks to bloomberg's matt boesner. we will speak to cleveland fed president loretta messner in an extrusive interview at 12:30 new york time, 5:30 london. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." president trump's recent budget proposal includes a $150 million line item to create a you are a near miss irv stockpile -- create a uranium reserve stockpile. here is more is bloomberg intelligence's etf analyst. reporter: this is something they
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have been talking about for quite some time. uranium and nuclear power is critical to the u.s. the problem is that the u.s. generates less than 10% of the uranium it uses. the rest is imported from places canada,sia, kazakhstan, and australia. all of those things are spelling out to be an issue for our national security. the last few decades, we have seen that americans and politicians both believe that energy independence is critical to national security, and that is what trump is doing here. basically, the u.s. is going to step in as a buyer of uranium, which is a demand-side catalyst. we saw uranium miners in the u.s. pop on this news. guy: how many etf's are there that i can use to try to take advantage of the situation? walk me through the landscape. one is more of a broad
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play on the industry. it includes industry producers, not just miners. it does hold a significant portion of uranium miners. the next is ura. this has $200 million in assets. it focuses more on the uranium mining side of things, but still holds a lot of broad miners. the third one, the newest, is urnm. it is basically solely to play the uranium mining market. it targets uranium mines very specifically. the way we look at this is something called somatic capture score. we give it a 94, which means it does the best job of tracking the uranium market as possible. that etf is going to move the most with uranium prices over this time period. vonnie: what about the perception problem of nuclear? definitely has a perception problem, but still
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makes up 19% to 20% of our power supply. it iss going on is evident in the performance of ura that it has been a perception problem. it is 80% down. the upside comes from -- the other side comes from subsidies into wind and solar. the problem is, in order for the u.s. to clean up its energy supply, it is going to need to look at nuclear. wind and solar aren't going to cut supply completely, and that stuff has been said for years. 80% since inception, so when that changes, who knows? vonnie: thank you. that is james seyfert of bloomberg intelligence. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's figure out what is happening with the first word
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news. here with the details, ritika gupta. ritika: it is getting tougher to scope of thee coronavirus outbreak because china has been revising the data. cases 4800 confirmed reported, there are now more than 63,000. u.s. officials have stepped up their criticism of china's response. defense officials are standing behind their decision to divert nearly $400 billion in funding for military aircraft and other programs to help pay for a wall on the u.s./mexico border. some in congress said the move was illegal. defense secretary mark esper said order security is national security, and national security is our mission. the pentagon also indicated that more money may be moved to pay for the wall. u.k. andis aimed at china on huawei. the administration will not
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change its policy on intelligence sharing with the british. president trump is unhappy the u.k. will allow huawei to help build 5g networks. the u.s. has warned about the company and the risk of espionage, but is not going to withhold intelligence from the u.k. the european union is asking number states to enforce the united nations arms embargo against libya. world powers agreed at a conference in berlin last month to respect the embargo, but weapons have continued to flow to the two warring factions in libya since the 2011 ouster and subsequent death of mo market off he -- of muammar gaddafi. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. bloomberg opinion columnist john
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"stocks haves, grown very expensive by conventional metrics. most stock markets in the rest of the world have not." he joins us now by phone. are you saying that because this has been the case for so long, it can't continue to be the case just because? john: well, i've been making that argument for several years best,nd it is at the very i've been too early, which is another way of saying i've been wrong. goes,y, the further this the more hope you put in america to remain preeminent, but there are quite a few factors that probably do keep america running very hot for quite a while yet. guy: this is about tech, isn't it? that is with the u.s. has, and
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everybody wants it. john: yes, it is partly about tech. you can run the numbers without the faang stocks, the really big, dominant internet providers, and you will still see something recognizably the same effect, but yes, the really dramatic way in which american stocks have been on so much better than the rest of the road has a lot to do with the giants of silicon valley. have what ist, you often referred to as exorbitant privilege. where are you going to shelter when there is a problem? america benefited from being treated as a shelter during the eurozone sovereign crisis. from aously benefited during thetus chinese devaluation a few years ago, and it is being treated that way again, or has been of
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late, during the coronavirus. there isn't anybody else that will operate in the same way as a shelter when times are tough, ratheroes give you this lose i win, tails you sense. vonnie: so the federal reserve is a lender of last resort, but also, the central banker to the world. the u.s. consumer is holding up the world. but at some point, that may change, or at least get a lot more muddled, right? particularly now with the coronavirus, and people looking for more stimulus out of china. john: the stimulus can come from china. that would certainly help. but again, what we have learned from stimulus is from the states in the past as well. the money is fungible. go tosn't necessarily all
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the place that you are trying to rescue. it goes to the place that can make the most money. have continuing outpouring of liquidity around the world, that doesn't necessarily mean a problem for the big companies selling most boatsthat will raise the of the likes of apple and google. i think the big issue you do have to be concerned about is that when it does come to valuations, you can't use valuation for timing, but i do find it very striking that, on the price per sales basis, the s&p 500 american stocks are more expensive than they were at the boom in they are gaining everything at this point from really having huge profit margins out of those
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sales, and in market economies, profit markets tend not to stay high for long. i think that is the ultimate problem that will bring down the u.s. preeminence, attacking that profitability at the u.s. companies. guy: can i ask you a slightly broader question? stock investors seem to be ignoring the coronavirus because there seems to be disbelief that there will be significant stimulus to compensate for it. view?t a complete john: yes, it is perfectly possible. i think on balance, it is that the virus itself can be contained to the real black swan possibilities of a virus that breaks out like the spanish flu 100 years ago. that really doesn't look likely. but the thing that bothers me is that we really still don't have a handle on how big the slow
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down for china is going to be. it is still perfectly possible. suggestions that we are going to get quarter on quarter decline in world gdp this quarter, which would be the first time that's happened since the crisis, things to coronavirus. it may be temporary, but there is still consumption that would permanently be -- [indiscernible] go to oneas if you restaurant four times this month and eight times next month. in terms of the true economic damage to china, we don't know yet. guy: and we don't know the implications for the rest of the world. we are still figuring it out. john, thanks very much indeed. john authers joining us on his latest piece. tesla tapsing up, wall street for funding just a couple of months after elon musk says it doesn't seek to raise
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capital gain, and it does so at a discount. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." it is time for our stock of the hour. kailey leinz has that. kailey: our stock of the hour is making a big comeback from its last earnings report, expedia, the best performer in the s&p 500 today. it is higher by more than 9%, on pace for its best day since july 2018 after fourth-quarter results. that revenue came up slightly light. bookings were up about 5.9%. the highlight was the company's
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short-term rental unit, up 13% in revenue in the quarter to nearly $260 million. it is still a relatively small share of expedia's business, only about 10%, but it is growing rapidly. it is an area of big focus for investors as it looks to compete with the likes of airbnb. what investors are likely more focused on is the company outlook, predicting double-digit 2020.t growth in they are not putting a firm number on that growth because of coronavirus, but still, in light of that, they still think bookings will be up and profits will be up, and cost cuts at into the profit as well. the street has been quick to react to that. six shops upping their target today. one of them is evercore isi, saying that expedia has a new bar today. guy: thanks very much, indeed. let's get back to the main
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story, coronavirus. the death toll from the virus -- vietnam has barred a cruise ship from landing due to a previous stop in china. royal caribbean has now canceled 18 cruises. astrazeneca has said its profit will be dented by the coronavirus. china is one of its key markets. send some of to its staff home from its trading desks in singapore. read.g gave an early not only did retail sales drop a , there's a forecast february decline. fiat chrysler is halting operations at a plant in serbia because of supply change horses -- supply chain shortages from china, and renault's
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warning it may have to take smaller actions. fiat chrysler is having to shutter a plant in serbia. the civil reason is that the stereo it puts in the veh icle is made in china. so they can't ship these things. are we going to see similar cases like this all across the auto sector? >> this is one of the big risks to the auto companies. a vehicle takes 2000 or 3000 parts, and if you are missing one, it doesn't get off the assembly line, doesn't get shipped to dealers, and they don't book revenue. all of the car companies i know are going through their supply chains, looking at risk, looking at what they could lose from parts shipped from china to any market. fiat chrysler is in serbia, but there are plans in the u.s. that can get parts from china and mexico as well. there is risk to auto plants all over the world. it just depends on how long this goes and whether or not they can find another source for these parts. i talked to general motors this
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morning. i just generically said they are looking at their supply chain to see if they can identify any potential shortages coming up, and if they can find other solutions. they didn't give any specifics, but that is the game all the car companies are playing. vonnie: what kind of inventory is on hand? is this something that could be rectified with a little bit of patience and not figure into car sales all that much? inventorydo have some because we haven't seen a lot of production shortages in the u.s. due to parts coming out of china. the companies still tend to run with pretty lean inventory. don't want to carry that much capital on their books, and it is not efficient to have that many parts sitting around. so if you have plant making parts in china staying down for a long time, you will see plants go down here. it is a fluid situation. everyone is just sort of waiting to see what happens.
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guy: let's turn to tesla, raising money. you can understand why. if your share price does what it just did, you take the opportunity and raise the money. my question is, what are they going to do with this money? they obviously need to invest to try to keep production rates that are expected of them. where is this cash going? analystsrst of all, have been asking them if they were going to raise money to really short the balance sheet and have more cash on the books. that is a good thing. that is what a lot of the even more positive analysts have been asking for. but beyond that, elon musk still has great ambition. the model why is going to be out soon, so they are going to be -- the model y is going to be up soon, so they are going to be ramping up production. they have the cybertruck that they have shown off. they have possibly a semi truck that elon musk has been talk the
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cybertruck is a real thing that he showed. the model y is ahead of schedule. these are things you have to spend money on. you have to expand plants, make more batteries, so they are probably expanding battery capacity as well. they are growing the product line, growing volumes, growing into new markets, and that is chiefly where the money is going to go. vonnie: and they have to hire more people in buffalo because they promised to in order to receive some grants. so obviously, some of the money is being used for other types of projects of elon musk's. it is interesting that every time elon does something he won't do, analysts raise the price target again. bizarre particularly one. three weeks ago at earnings, he said they didn't need to raise money, and he was very emphatic about that, and here they are raising money. it is not bad to do it, especially with the stock price this high, but it does send the
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signal a few weeks ago that they didn't need cash, and that fit the theory that has pushed shares over the past few months. the company has been profitable for a couple of quarters. they generated some pretty nice cash flow in the fourth quarter. the thesis became startups always need money from the investment community to one that is starting to get on its own feet and really becoming a self-sustaining automaker, and then he goes back and raises money. it is not that it is a bad thing. it is just mixed signals that hurt shares in early trading. once investors said, ok, the shares are down, but they are strengthening the balance sheet and raising money for gross, they sort of bid it back up again and ended up doing all right for the day. vonnie: thank you. that is bloomberg's detroit bureau chief david welch. still ahead, why you may be spending more for your chocolate this valentine's day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." phasehaseguy: one -- guy: one of the trade deal officially takes effect today, but the energy purchases that china agreed to in that deal were and beyond the u.s. production cape abilities. production capabilities. how did we end up in a situation where the phase one deal is unrealistic from both sides? the chinese probably don't want to buy this stuff now, and the u.s. probably isn't capable of providing it. how did we end up in this situation? reporter: because the trump administration more ambitious advisors and industry were telling them were practical.
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the oil and gas industry had a smaller target in mind before the deal was inked. we saw the same was true for agricultural commodities, where the president boasted about pushing his advisors to require even higher purchase commitments from china than were pragmatic. this happened across the board, and it is where we find ourselves today, where the oil and gas industry is saying we love this deal and we like many aspects of it, but practically speaking, we are going to have shipping constraints and industry constraints. vonnie: isn't this proof positive that the president is perhaps doing more signaling than actually negotiating with china, and the sense that he got china to agree what they couldn't even possibly agree to, we should expect even more in phase two? reporter: that is one way of looking at that, and that is what we are hearing from folks in the oil and gas industry. this has signaling value.
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this puts pressure on china to ramp up purchases, even if it is a stretch goal, as the american petroleum institute termed it recently. but there is still this alarm sounded. it is great to have ambition, but is it pragmatic on the ground? vonnie: thank you for that.'s jen it is time for futures in focus. joining us from the cme is phil streible, blue line futures chief market strategist. the dialogue the u.s. is having with china and the strains that percolate through the market, is that visible in the price of oil and lng right now, or are they trading on today's fundament of? -- today's fundamentals? phil: you can see that they are clearly trading off of fundamentals. crude futures aren't getting the bid beneath it.
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central banks are providing liquidity. they will act as a backstop if the coronavirus continues to hamper global demand. but oil specifically, you can control supply, but you can't control demand. we think the demand is going to continue to come off. opec is going to try to bid prices up, but the headwind is $56, the 200 day moving average. your key level of support, $49.50, the recent level we just saw. vonnie: if there is more demand from china and inability for the u.s. to maybe fulfill that demand or vice versa, both that push the prices higher? going toh, but you are have to look six months, 12 months out. coronavirus has crippled all of the demand, and it is coincidence -- it is no coincidence. china will not be able to live up to any of these prices. corn and soybeans are back near lows.
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they just don't believe that they are going to be able -- those expectations were slightly unrealistic, but now that their economy has completely been crippled at the moment, we are starting to see prices all come back down. vonnie: thank you for your time today. much appreciated. that is phil streible of blue line futures. we are sticking with commodities now. many celebrated today by giving gifts, which includes chocolate. coco processes like nestle or processors nestle and mars are worried about dry crops. reporter: we are only a couple of months into the new year, and 2020 is already starting out on a sour note for the cocoa industry. hot, dry conditions are hitting the two largest producers, ivory coast and ghana. output depressing cocoa
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at a time that demand, especially out of asia, had been high. they are still up more than 14% so far this year, near the last levels in 2018 when tight supplies were driving prices up. right now, conditions are so hot in some west african areas that newer trees barely have a chance to survive. a farmer in donna said about 90% of all the young replanted trees -- in ghana said about 90% of all the young we play to trees have died -- young replanted trees have died. a west african initiative is aimed at boosting the incomes of cocoa growers, but if prices get too high, they could pass on the cost to customers, raising the cost of your chocolate fix. guy: not mine, but definitely my wife's. thanks very much, indeed. we are counting you down to the
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european close this valentine's day. we are bouncing off our session lows. ftse 100 is still down, but the dax bouncing into positive territory. the cac 40 down by 0.2%. it is a long weekend in the united states. people may be factoring that into their thinking when it comes to what is happening with coronavirus as well. plenty more still to come. we are going to come to down to the european close and give you an idea of exactly what is moving in terms of the individual stocks as well. we continue to monitor some of the car stocks. the banks a factor in europe, as well. the european closes next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: coronavirus cases continued to rise. companies around the world clearly feeling the negative effects, from astrazeneca to renault the royal caribbean.
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german gdp stagnates. in ats q4 number comes zero before the effect of the virus is felt. we will take you live to munich for the latest. and it is a name change, but a game change. rbs will become natwest, a name closely associated with the financial crisis. we will hear from its cmo. life from undone, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york -- live from london, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ back in the green for the s&p 500. we started the day in the green, gave up some of the gains, and we are back up 0.1%. those companies faring well are expedia, up more than 11% after reporting results that surprised the street. they were better than expected, looking for double-digit growth.


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