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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  February 21, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EST

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it is consistent with the story all cycle. lower interest rates in scarce growth is forcing investors into pockets which is what is driving stocks higher. romaine: it is interesting you say that. we forget utilities is the outperforming sector, outperforming tech. right below tech is real estate. >> it is an odd combination. romaine: that is the sort of combination we have today. real estate the only thing in the green. pretty much everything else in the red. tech stocks down about 2.2% as far as the main s&p internet gauge. the dow and nasdaq how they are finishing the day and the week. the russell 2000 also on the downside. joe: let's dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters. abigail, what are you watching? abigail: with the selloff or
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with thetoday coronavirus fears, i'm taking a look at volatility. the vix has its biggest spike on a weekly basis going back to august. mark sebastian said something that caught my attention. he thinks there is the possibility that monday could turn out to be similar to the black monday in august of 2015 when the dow at one point was dow 1000 points -- down 1000 points. there is a possible super spike in the making. there are lots of different ways to look at the vix. the point i'm making is we have higher lows going into what happened in 2008 back in 2014-2015. ahead of the 2016 correction, we had a similar situation. right now, we have higher lows telling you volatility is on the
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rise and we could see some sort of super spike. taylor: i wanted to fold in what you are talking about with market expectations given the coronavirus and growth expectations. this chart is all about those breakevens. now down to 1.6. 10-year below that. this highlights the lack of inflation, the lack of growth expectations that the coronavirus is having. growth, investors think is not so much further out anymore at least for now. >> i'm looking at the coronavirus impact as well in the dollar under pressure after four street sessions in the green. that move coming after weak market data showing contraction for the first time since 2013
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giving the euro and the yen a boost. a clear read through of the coronavirus into the american economy. at this point, still expecting v-shaped -- a recovery. they said the dollar would be a challenge moving forward. joe: thank you. us, bloomberg intelligence strategist gina martin adams and david joy. i want to continue the conversation around risks around the coronavirus. i am curious why you think the laise when youb say there is no evidence the
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coronavirus is under control. why is this something we have already seen in the markets given we can all roughly look at the same data? >> i think going into this episode if you go back to the middle of january, the prevailing wisdom was these types of episodes we have seen in the past and they create buying opportunities. we are just going to stay the course and wait for the rebound. this is turning out to be more persistent and more difficult to get our arms around from a health care perspective. eventually we will get this under control and get the rebound in economic activity. my point is i think it is likely to be further out than was the complacent expectation when this thing first got going. romaine: how transitory can leave you the current -- how
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transitory is above you? -- the view? >> it is difficult for investors to capture. that is part of the reason you're seeing this complacency in the market where you are not seeing a lot of movement around it. no one can price it. therefore, what do you do with it? you do not see a lot of complacency in analyst estimates. justs reflect more than fundamental conditions. if you look at fundamental conditions, analysts are expecting earnings to contract in the first quarter. a few weeks ago, they were expecting earnings growth. they have marked down expectations significantly over the last four weeks. there is no complacency in the analyst community. i think it is just difficult to capture. in the midst of all of this, we did have a trade agreement signed between the u.s. and china which is going to force
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bounce back in the second half of the year presuming china gets back to business later this year. there will be a catch up for manufacturers. i think investors are saying even if the economy is more damaged then we were expecting, the ketchup is likely to be significant in the second half catcje year -- that ke h up is likely to be significant in the second half of the year. maybe they can reverse all of the declines with extra growth in the second half of the year. >> i think we are still talking about where fiscal policy may go, and we really will not know that until we know the results of the us election -- the u.s. election. it is an increasing story overseas. policyral, monetary
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moving in an easier direction is supported over time. the fed has stated we are on hold for now. do weaomic conditions ken, they are open to doing something. stocks will be impacted no matter what policies makers -- policymakers say the short-term. faith do youmuch put in that? faith in thet of short-term on the monetary policy side of things. on the fiscal side, i am less confident. on the other hand, we have the g20 finance minister meeting tomorrow. it will be interesting to see what comes out of that. i know the imf is going there with the intention to rally some support from fiscal stimulus
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collectively to try and head off what the managing director has called a more serious global economic shock. we will see what comes out of that. i'm not expecting anything dramatic. the timeliness of this get together is fortuitous for the market. virus still the number one thing you will be watching in terms of the spread outside of china, the degree to which authorities can get a handle on it? >> yes. clearly, it is the number one concern. it has the ability to continue to disrupt economic activity but ultimately investor sentiment. that can be just as corrosive to economic activity. until we get a better handle on this, that will be the number one concern. as i said earlier, at least as far as the u.s. is concerned, going into this and even some of the more recent economic data
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points, they have been pretty good until we got today's flash pmi's which were surprisingly weak. other than that, some of the data has been good. ok but notg to be robust by any means. romaine: any words of encouragement for us for next week? >> i think the market is due for a pullback. the signal from all the asset classes are telling you to be cautious tactically. that said, the secular bull market is still intact. you want to watch the data carefully. i think your long-term trends are intact. your short-term outlook has to be for weaker conditions i would suspect. romaine: our thanks to gina martin adams and david joy.
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we want to bring you breaking news on wells fargo agreeing to on thellion settlement probes into consumer abuses. this is a settlement with the federal government in line with what most people have been speculating. the company has set aside pretty much this amount late last year for potential settlements. the company still under the growth cap imposed. you see the shares up modestly 1.5%. joe: michael bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, tweeting the company has identified three nondisclosure agreements signed with women to address complaints about comments he made and if break theirwant to nda's, they should contact him.
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from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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bloomberg'se from world headquarters in new york, this is "bloomberg markets: the close." i am romaine bostick. stock bulls getting a wake-up call. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" romaine: a reassessment of the global economic impact of the coronavirus drives treasury yields to record lows. walmart's grocery delivery partner hits the road highlighting the tricky logistics of making money through deliveries. jamaica has been one of the
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best-performing stock markets over the last five years but there are zero jamaican etf's. we will talk to one person trying to change that. joe: let's get right into the bond rally. jersey joining us with more. everyone is astonished at all the money that relentlessly keeps driving the long end of the curve lower. on a risk off day like today, you expect rates to go lower. we havenk a big reason this everything rally is the stock market is saying the fed will bail us out if things are bad. and at the same time because the federal reserve might lower , that the bond market continues to rally.
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the longer you have these exogenous shocks, the longer global interest rates remain low which means you get a flatter and flatter curve. that has been moving the long anend. the idea that it needs to keep coming down. romaine: a lot of folks are betting we will get rate cuts this year. we will get them potentially sooner than what some people have priced into the market. at the same time, you hear people talking about fallout from the coronavirus and it being made up in the second half. is that a recipe for a rate cut? >> i think all of these risks with what is going on with supply chains and will we have 2.5%, at 1.5% instead of all of those things mean even if the fed does not cut, the fed is not hiking anytime soon.
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that is another reason why you have this significant rally in almost every rate market globally. the market is telling you the federal reserve needs to cut to avoid a recession. , theill see more of that market taking the pessimistic view. that is what the bond market does. it tends to take pessimistic views and eventually are unwound. the case for owning treasuries the yield or the capital gains on a day like today when the bond side of your portfolio may have rallied as much as the stock side lost? >> i think mostly it has to do with people wanting some asset that will pay them some real yield. the idea is with all of the distant inflationary things going on globally that the bond
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market is the place to be. your alternative is to get negative yields in europe or near negative yields in japan or you have to take more credit risk. italian debt yields less than u.s. treasury. is whole global impact having an impact of depressing yields everywhere. treasuries are not immune to that given that treasuries are very liquid. you know you can find them because dealers will fund all of their treasuries through the fed if they have to. all of these things combined to make treasuries a very attractive asset for investors to hold everywhere in the world. romaine: you use the word hold. is there a risk if we see substantial increase in things improve
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quickly, do we get a snap back in the treasury market that could catch people off guard? >> i think we are set up now for very substantial volatility if the bond market sells. coronavirus fears go away in the warmer summer months, you wind up having some positive political outcome in the u.s. where people do not think the world is going to end, and at the same time you see a modest pickup in inflation expectations, the next thing you know, the bond market is off to the races to the downside and prices and upside to yields. you wind up with substantial losses and a lot of bond portfolios. 30-year debt has a lot of brisk. 1%, thatst rates go up bond can be down 20%. romaine: really appreciate you taking time to be with us.
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our thanks to ira jersey. walmart losing its delivery partner. the ceo says the grocery delivery model does not work. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lost groceryart delivery partner skipcart. ceo did not mince words when he was asked saying the grocery model does not work. it does not work today and will not work six months from now, we are all losing money.
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that kind of said it all. in all seriousness, he brings up a good point. you are not the first person to raise this issue. we have seen delivery partners of amazon and other retailers either drop out or complain about the financial cost of this, that it is hard to make a profit doing this. what is the issue? >> he did not mince words. he was quite revealing in his words saying they were losing money hand over fist. when you make an online grocery order, you are buying lots of unique things. some of them have specific temperature control requirements. you also might buy shampoo with your frozen foods. when you order groceries, you do not want them in a couple of few, you want them within a hours. between the warehouse to you, that last mile is the most expensive. joe: what does it say about
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grocery overall? walmartone area where is getting a lot of praise from and ones for innovation area of their future strategy that is working. partnersis a key link find a sustainable -- unsustainable, does that call into question the future of this segment? >> grocery is the fastest-growing segment in e-commerce. grocery accounts for about 56% of walmart sales. they need that to fuel growth. i think the answer will be technology. they have to compete. the main competitors are amazon, target, along with walmart. they are all doing everything they can to make the delivery process more cost effective and efficient. romaine: what you mean by technology? >> walmart is testing autonomous
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cars. the state of arkansas has made self-driving cars legal. it has a pilot there. interest?is walmart's i guess i gave it away, freudian slip. >> there are forward transit vans -- ford transit vans that are self driving. romaine: that still seems a little far off until the point you have mass adoption of it. arkansas is not letting those cars roll around freely. >> no, they have safety drivers in them. romaine: they are paying those drivers. >> technology does not have to look like that. that is quite a revolutionary solution. target bought a company which focuses on making the process
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easier. romaine: no one is talking about raising the cost of deliveries that someone like me would pay to get it delivered. >> they may have to. it is going to be challenging. bloomberg'snks to sally bakewell. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. uberess insider reporting is moving all 38,000 employees to the app. . billionaire warren buffett releasing his closely watched annual letter tomorrow. investors will read it closely looking for clues about his strategy after a year of missed deals. it was also a year in which berkshire hathaway rose slower than the s&p 500 index, the worst performance in a decade.
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that is your business flash update. romaine: the quick programming note. "wall street week" airing tonight at 6:00 on bloomberg television and radio. you can also catch it online. this week, it features more on the coronavirus. we will talk about the impact of the coronavirus on investment. >> we are still in wait-and-see mode. production isd starting to come back on slowly. is into march, we could be back to capacity. in the tech supply chain, china has become a much bigger part. 80% of assembly now happens in china. some you 5% of components are produced in china. 75% of it is to --
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components are produced in china. i think it is too early to tell. ♪ alix: we will explore the world of electric vehicles. >> this is the choice for many of our customers. alix:
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>> the direct tore germ of the world health organization says ina has reported a total of75h d-19. 229,000 deaths. in the past 24 hours, china has reported 892 new confirmed cases and 118 deaths. the significant decline in new confirmed cases is partly due to another change in how china is reporting its figures. >> the concern continues to be the potential for covid-19 to
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spread in countries with weaker health systems. tomorrow, i will address my emergency meeting held jointly by the africa yunnan africa centers for business control and prevention. >> the number of americans who are ineffected with the coronavirus has risen to 34 according to the centers for disease control which that number is likely to climb. ose are evacuated from china and the cruise ship docked in japan. u.n. says families fleeing violence in northeast syria have resorted to burn their clothes to protect themselves against freezing winter temperatures. the office of coordination of humanitarian affairs also warned of a potential blood bath unless
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a sees fire is established. >> 900 people have been displaced exceeding the worst case planning figures to the humanitarian community. let me stress when i say 500,000 people, it's mostly children. 60% of those are minors. most of the displaced have moved into increasingly crowded areas. >> turkey's president urged russia's president putin to restrain the syrian government nd halt the houston crisis and the president asked putin to plement a 2018 turkish ceasefire agreement.
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jurors in the weinstein case said they are deadlocked. and asked if they are allowed to be hung on sexual predatory assault and the judge said no and continue deliberations. more than 100 women have accused the movie mogul of sexual assault. this trial involves allegations of two of those women. joe: world health organization raising concerns over the coronavirus cases especially in the middle east. let's bring in the professor of micro biology at johns hopkins ublic school of public health.
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he joins us now from baltimore. thank you for joining us. we have had several weeks in which we can start to see how the data emerges and right now, we see continued concerns about the growth of the virus outside of china. what's surprising to you or jumping out to you in terms of the degree this is spreading and how easily it spreads as well as things like immortality rate. >> the problem we are seeing now is the extended amounts of transmission that are occurring in countries like korea, japan, singapore. these are countries with good public health systems, good medical institutions yet they are struggling to control the spread of this virus once it's introduced into those countries and that is a real concern and that is telling us that this
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virus is spreading, if you compare it to sars, it is spreading more efficiently than the sars virus did in 2003. joe: give us a sense of it may be transmitted in fecal matter. why is it spreading at all. >> all of the good data suggests that it is being spread through respiratory see creations, when you cough, secretions will fall in areas and that's where the virus is and you can pick that up and coming into contact with that. there is some evidence for it being spread close by to people through the air. and that seems to be the primary way that it's spreading. joe: what about the severity of this, because that has been the source of a lot of debate and questions about how accurate
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death rates are in china. some people have speculated, it's not that much different than the flu and others say it is much more serious. do you and other researchers feel you are getting a better handle on this question? >> yes. we absolutely are. and the concern that we have is actually with the more milder cases. it's now turning out there are a lot of infections where individuals have very little symptoms or mild symptoms, not enough to bring them to a health care center to get diagnosed. that is different from the sars outbreak in 2003 in which case eople who had symptoms and seeked out health care. you could have an infected person and able to spread the virus but doesn't have severe enough symptoms is a scenario that makes it difficult to track
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these parets and to limit them from exposing others to the virus. romaine: what do you make of the response so far? you talk about some of this is being spread by people being in close proximity. we had a cruise ship where there are suspected and they went back on planes to their home countries. any nations taking this as seriously kem people quarantined before they are released they are free of this virus? >> many of the measures that have been tried to control this virus have been the appropriate one. just because you stay quarantined. the cruise ship was a good chl of this. there was spread of this virus apparently among the passengers on the cruise ship. that shouldn't be happening if
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quarantine is instilled in the appropriate manner. i think we are rapidly approaching a time that the measures that were initially used to try and control this are going to be shown to be not very effective because of the large numbers of case he we see. joe: from a professional stance, there is a lot of questions about the reliability of data we have and questions about any numbers that come out of china. as a researcher trying to understand what's going on, how confident are you you can get access to narle transparent numbers so you can do your job? >> it depends on the source and the country that is reporting and it's difficult, you commented on how the case description is changing. i think it's also clear there are different kinds of cases. there are mild cases and maybe
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people not getting symptoms and then severe cases that require hospitalization. this is not a very straightforward everybody who gets infected has one set of symptoms and maybe it hard to keep track. but we are getting a handle and able to make better estimates now that we know these kinds of cases are occurring. romaine: thank you, professor from johns hopkins. the bloomberg school of public health is supported by michael bloomberg who is the founder bloomberg l.p. and bloomberg philanthropy. ♪.
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joe: romaine: what stories are coming
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across the bloomberg universe. goldman sacks c.e.o. would probably pick trump over bernie sanders. he says trump cares about the economy and sanders would ruin the economy. and has a story about youtube which will be only advertising one candidate on election day and that is president trump. they purchased the coveted advertising space across the video website for earl any november. trump will be featured in key days before the polls on november 3. and the world's warmest, strange weather patterns over the north pole and if the trend continues, february 29 will be the warmest global temperature in 141 years. it will lead to new research and why it's happening and if limate change is the call.
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stock jamaica's % stock producing 5 exchange. we spoke to jamaica's managing director about the boon. >> the consumers, we are optimistic about what is going on in jamaica and past couple of years of what we have been doing is encouraging companies to do better in terms of their corporate governance, training, et cetera. so we have been putting in the hard work for the companies to perform well. and it is paying dividends. joe: the island is now testing the depths of the market with the nation's biggest i.p.o. and
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recent demands are tracking their performance. david, capital founder, chairman, c.e.o. working to one of those in u.s. and canada. not easy access to it for american investors. what are the hurdles at this point for you to get e.t.f. in the u.s. market? it's simpler and faster and cheaper. if you look at n.y.c. listings, biggest problem is that we have a market cap minimum of 100 million u.s. dollars for 100% of the weight. that eliminates the majority of the actual stock. and eliminates the junior market. the second one is we have a cuss towedian issue.
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d jamaica is 17-s.-5 jurisdiction. we have been working on that thankfully and really helpful and working with a good team of e.t.f. players. and what we have noticed, 90% exposure to jamaica. romaine: one option that has been talked about is talking who that is the vehicle for some investors. >> i'm on warren buffett's side. we look at bloomberg capital as an investment company. to give you an example. the e.t.f. wouldn't exist in a company the largest alternative investment firm in the
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caribbean. just a test run moving between the u.s. and jamaica. up u.s. dollar, listed -- % in a year and over 140% or e.t.f. wouldn't get access to that. we think it will be better to have an e.t.f. and the capital itself to work towards an investment bank here in new york. joe: you have identified a handful of companies that are jamaican or heavily exposure to jamaica. it's an investor buying into this, what are the big sectors? what kind of areas? >> i like that. jamaica sectors are not as diverse but we have key ones. if you look at any emerging markets and moving people from
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middle e class to class. so the financial group for example opened by michael leach, that is a great one in our opinion and why jamaica is a great option for variety. $100,000 that he invested in 2002 and looked at berkshire athaway and he could be buying n.c.b. stock. as of june 30, last year, 2019, he s&p 500 money, 363,000. good return. the buffett stock, berkshire stock, if you had bought n.c.b. and held through all its problems, today, june 30, 2019, $2.97 million.
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romaine: if you are walking into an office, what then becomes the selling point beyond the economic boom and other things from an investment standpoint? what do you sell them on? u.s. showing of companies? >> they need to think of singapore and the western hemisphere. romaine: singapore and the western hemisphere. that's a bold claim. >> it should be. we are next door to one of the largest markets like singapore to china. jamaica to u.s. nd panama canal. oe: the c.e.o. of the jamaican stock exchange to improve corporate governance. what kind of evidence that that is happening? >> they have a mentorship program for the junior market
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and nasdaq platform is now running the stock exchange and brought people on there to help with corporate governance. we are using harvard case studies for the governance. joe: david, very interesting. this is bloomberg. ♪
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joe: regulating canada. a much coveted approval to begin operations in new jersey. there is the company's chief strategy officer. thanks for being here. you are growing in new jersey right now. >> we are. we got our license a couple of a few weeks ago and new jersey is my home state. joe: what is the status of new jersey's patients?
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you are growing and still no recreation? >> it's a medical program and ery healthy medical program. on the ballot initiative 2020 election that would allow for new jersey residents to vote yes for recreational cannabis. there was a study that came out that pulls 6 % in favor. it will be binding. romaine: what about the potential demand. we saw legalization boom go through canada last year and the year before and some of the demand didn't match up to some of the hype. do you expect there to be enough demand whether it is recreational or the medical side all the investment that has been put into this industry in the u.s.? >> in the united states in which we operate in, which is 11
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states, we sell everything we can possibly make. the demand is there. if you look at new york city. the demand in the illicit annabis market estimated at $5 billion. joe: we address the problems in the canadian market, the legal recreational market exists but hasn't been as much migration from the illicit market over to the legal market. in states in the u.s. where you do see the legal recreational market growing, how much success has there been for people moving to the licenses? >> i use colorado as an example. it just really takes time to get people used not calling their illicit drug dealer and dropped off to going to a professional store. it just takes time. romaine: given the current state
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of regulation and on a state-by-state basis here in the u.s., how is it you are able to raise exabble capital? one c.e.o. paid a loan, not a lot of banks are not willing to come to the cannabis industry just yet. >> there are no banks that are willing to lend to the cannabis industry. we are a public company. we have banking in all of our states, but there is absolutely no lending and also a challenge for u.s. institutions to find a way to invest in cannabis. joe: there is a boom in demand even though it is taking longer to license. there is boom in supply. when there is a boom in sly can undercut margins and selling
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everything you can. are there profitable sales are or is there getting out of the field? >> we have healthy margins and the whole industry does, really. romaine: what's next? at this stage, are we waiting for more states to jump on board? are you waiting for federal regulation that would tie this all together? >> federal regulation has been out there, the banking act, the states' acts have been kicked around with the federal government for a long time. i don't have a crystal ball but i wouldn't expect to see anything before the election but after the election. joe: thank you very much for joining us. don't miss this, the next democratic debate happening in south carolina on tuesday. romaine: the numbers for you s
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g.d.p. are coming on thursday. subscribe to our weekly podcast itunes and it is called "what'd you miss." "bloomberg technology" is coming up next. joe: have a great weekend. note note shall ♪
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beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond.
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i emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, the new dawn of digital ads. presidential campaigns innovating in new ways to reach people across every platform. the problem is every platform has different standards. blame the message or the messenger? plus, in an age where technology makes working from home possible w


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