tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg February 26, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
i am not so sure yet that we have had a wash out of that sentiment. today. bit of an attempt but we might not be there yet. i am talking about the sentiment. romaine: we are getting the closing bell. kind of a mixed bag. the dow and s&p are down. the s&p 500 minutes two in the in the green. -- end in the green. scarlet: volume is heavier than average. the nasdaq finishing the year still in the grain, but just barely. joe: s&p is now down 3.5% for the year. today's decline feels a lot lower.
but we were substantially higher earlier in the day. when you look at treasuries, there was buying all day in treasuries. let's dive deeper into the action with our different reporters. i am thinking about volatility. today's decline does not seem that big. but it is the same five-day decline since last august. this is what we will continue to see.
about them is they have been really in the eye of the storm with these coronavirus concerns. anything related to travel or going out. amc, the movie theater chain, down. live nation down. that will months to bet on people going out and traveling. >> you can see that coming and understand it. the most interesting story of the day was toll brothers. domestically focused. housing is strong. this is a stock you would think would be a little bit of a haven. they talked about the coronavirus. they had to have all 11 closings in california. they are worried about lighting supplies. there are some surprises here.
scarlet: we will check in and about five minutes. it could change. we were talking earlier about people in the news comparing the fallout of the coronavirus to the european debt crisis a couple of years ago. the bad news just keeps rolling on. do we ever get a situation where there is capitulation? is trying -- it time to come in? >> i don't know if it is ever obvious.
how big a part of that china has become. their economy has grown as a share of global gdp. this is not just a supply shock, it is a demand shock. the demand shock is emanating from china. that is what makes the situation unique. about howhen you talk to structure your portfolio going forward, do you think we
?evert back to the norm >> in terms of the duration of the virus-related shock, i have no idea. i am not going to attempt to guess that. started by the coronavirus. companies realize the benefits that may have existed 10 or 15 years ago to develop those supply chains. the impetus has been there to move away from this complexity of supply chain.
one of the implications that is not getting discussed is that deglobalization, if you believe that has been a powerful force behind why inflation has been declining and solo globally, you have to what -- question whether it could be a force in the long term bring inflation. joe: this is what makes this crisis unique. how much does that add to the anxiety that there might not be
an obvious solution? >> you look at the fed funds futures and they are pricing in the probability of two or three quarter-point rate cuts this year. that goes to what she is talking about. this could cause some damage to the credit markets. it looked like it stabilized a little bit today. because to another realm of risk if we start worrying about credits. corporate credits and the potential for default in the most exposed companies. when it goes from a short-term thing to a much more longer, worse risk off situation.
scarlet: we appreciate it. we are keeping an ion earnings. equity reported numbers. beating the highest analyst estimates. shares are climbing as a result. the e-commerce site doing well. romaine: also some breaking news on microsoft. the company updating its fiscal guidance. we will try to get a few more details on that. we will be looking at how catastrophe bonds could be et al. on whether the virus has reached pandemic levels.
the world health organization -- reachednot reach pandemic levels. what does this mean for online retailers? according to the world health organization, more new cases were reported in countries other than china for the first time since the first patient was identified. u.s. officials seeking to ease the concern of the virus coming to the united states. donald trump is set to address the nation at 6:30 p.m. eastern time. it is official that there are new cases. that was the story already the last few days.
rate ofe had seen the infections slowing down in hubei province. new last night, we saw 50 deaths, which was a lower number than the night before. we also saw a smaller number of cases within china being reported. where around the world will we see these infections happening? we have president trump coming out to brief the press with the cdc officials. this comes just a day after we were talking about what cdc officials were saying were very different than president trump and his top officials that this is contained outside of the u.s.. there is also the issue of how you protect the economy. we will hear from the bank of korea and a few hours. what are we expecting to hear from them? few months back we
were looking at south korea and thinking finally export numbers are turning around. everything seemed to be doing much better. now we have the virus outbreak and we are talking about a rate cut. a record low of 1%. this coming at a time when you can see investor expectations falling. this is interesting because even with expectations of a rate cut growing, the governor is coming out and saying you have to think about the financial risk. we are seeing elevated property prices, which was always an issue in south korea. you have record household debt levels. this is something they need to consider when coming to together with another cut. outbreak thats killed people in korea, we saw rate cuts.
scarlet: thank you for the latest. we will bring you that decision when we get it. we will also bring you live to the white house when president trump hosts a news conference on the coronavirus. it was scheduled for 6:00 p.m. and has been pushed back to 6:30. give us your read on the damage that could be done now that the who has said there are more new cases coming from outside of china than inside. beginning it is the of a trend. we are likely to see much more cases globally. outside of the epicenter of this in china. nownumber of new cases for has been down in the single digits.
it may be in another week or so that china will be the safest place to be. of the things people are expecting is that after this phase and there is some return to normal in china, that we will see some serious stimulus. what do you think the flavor of that will be. similart the flavor -- to past stimuli? addressing some of the root issues that are behind outbreak? a we are not likely to see major stimulus as we have seen and some past cases. having selective credit using for companies that are
suffering difficulties. the real problem is on the supply side. a lot of firms in china have reopened. but their is not in place. hundreds of millions of people traveled for the lunar holiday. there are so many travel restrictions. they are working at a very low capacity. localities are not anxious to ease the travel restrictions. that is what beijing is pushing for now. at the local level, they are very reluctant. romaine: are there second and third order kinds of effects that we should be concerned about? >> certainly in the financial sector there will be a big hit
to revenue for companies that have closed down. they still have to pay interest on their debt. someentral bank has taken mitigating measures. they have been relatively small. in chinader effects might be primarily in the financial sector. scarlet: what do you think of how chinese consumers will change their behavior in the wake of coronavirus? when we thought it would be a one-month event, people were saying that these spending has been delayed. there be widespread structural changes in the way that people gather and go about their day-to-day lives that we should be thinking about as we calculate the economic damage? there will be a lot of catching up on durable expenditures. if you were planning to buy a car in the first quarter and you didn't want to leave your apartment, you may still want to
buy it in the second quarter after the virus has tapered off. the same is true for housing and other durable expenditures. if you did not go out to eat at a restaurant for two or three months, you are not going to go out twice as much when the virus is less severe. durables will be relatively ok. never make itill out. joe: final question, outside of china, we are still waiting to see what kind of damage you think there will be. back, youof bounce mention services are not going to double the time they go out to eat. but in terms of the government response, how effective will it be in your view? is this the type of thing that monetary policy will help with? >> there will be some help. the central bank has told the not havel banks not to
it will not meet its guidance. you can see microsoft shares off by 1%. intel trading lower in after hours trading. microsoft not meeting its third-quarter personal computing outlook. . romaine: that makes up about 36% of their revenue. the rest of the guidance for the company is staying the same. there has been a sudden shift in sales tactics by amazon merchants. this is due to the coronavirus. fewer ads on the site to reduce demand. what are we talking about here? are some of the sellers shutting down? >> not shutting down. they are trying to finesse things to get through any
supplies and disruptions. they know there will be delays. they don't know how long they will be. they are trying to calm a with the inventory they have, prolong the life that they have it. and also maximize the profits. on advertising. raise prices. joe: this has been one of the stories for amazon, muscling its way into the online ad space, taking significant share. termso the numbers say in of how much this issue is hurting that? >> we don't have any clarity on that just yet. advertising contributed more than 4 billion in the holiday quarter to amazon's revenue. fouris a small number amazon but it is a profitable source of revenue.
there is a company quartile that manages amazon ads for thousands of companies. they were seeing a 6% step. that was a fairly sizable reputation. scarlet: amazon's online marketplace is largely managed by machines. will that be part -- problematic during shortages? yes, that is a big problem. when you think about traditional stores with person-to-person relationships, they are in constant contact. amazon does really delegate this to algorithms. there are supply disruptions or shortages or runs on important essentials, it can be troublesome for them. that is where amazon has to pay
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i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's word news. the coronavirus outbreak which began in china and spread around the globe is on track to being a pandemic. have been confirmed on six continents. norway is the latest country. 15 cases have now been confirmed in the united states. president will hold a news conference on the outbreak at 6:30 p.m. new york time. theain said today that national health service is planning to expand home testing illness causedhe
by the coronavirus. atting sites are available all u.k. hospitals but homesites will be expanded. that in tell the house the coming days, we will roll out a wider public information campaign. while the government has plans in place for all eventualities, everyone can play their part. our advice is for everyone to take sensible precautions like using tissues and washing hands more. mark: over 2000 people have been tested for the virus with 13 people testing positive in the u.k. he adds that health officials and the u.k. expect more cases. struggling campaign
got a boost today. one of the most coveted endorsement. supporturn through his behind the vice president. investigating what it sees as a lack of transparency or regulation in the ticketing industry for live events. to testifyare called on several issues including ticket resale prices, transferability. the issue here is, using technology really holds consumers captive when they purchase a ticket, so if they want to resell that ticket, they are forced to do so through the platform or the mobile system of the primary issuer. mark: new jersey democrat frank
pallone told the executives, "we need to know what it will take really for ticket sellers to list the total all in price of the tickets upfront. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: the candidates ripped into each other last night ahead of the saturday primary. most of those attacks were aimed at bernie sanders, the front runner. >> not only is this a way to get donald trump reelected, we have senate to worry about, a to worry about. work,ug in, i did the then bernie's team trashed before it. not passed much of
anything. putin thinks that donald trump should be president. that is why they are helping you , so you lose to him. scarlet: for joe biden in particular, saturday's primary is crucial. this is the one state where we think he could show some big numbers. >> right now, it looks good for joe biden. a poll showed him in first place, followed by tom steyer, 13% it iss with looking good. but south carolina might not be enough. this is kind of the baseline of what joe biden needs to do. what is interesting about south carolina is one of the four
early states, super tuesday, next week, you have a lot more delegates up for grabs. joe biden not only needs to capitalize, but also make sure he can carry that momentum into super tuesday in order to provide any kind of challenge to bernie sanders. ae: for the first time at debate last night, people really went after bernie sanders. so that is something. on the other hand, there were six of them. how does that complicate the fact that as long as there are six of them, that is a pretty big anti-sanders vote? >> he handled attacks pretty well. he seemed to kind of not care. it is one thing to be the target shakeat is not going to
any support by the grassroots movement he has built. inis similar to what we saw 2016 with the republicans where you had the trump vote and antitrust vote. it was splintered up to the end of which gave trump a clear pathway. right now, it looks like that is what sanders as. of down the issue ballot voting, the idea that a bernie ticket could have consequences for the house of representatives, what is the argument? story todaygreat ,rom my colleague eric watson looking at this. you have candidates running in florida, texas, new jersey, where they may have won a seat that was held by lukens initially. democrats need to say, i am not
candidate, far-left that republicans are trying to pay demands. it is a different calculation if you have sanders at the top of the ticket, who actually describes himself as a democratic-socialist. republicans are really going to hammer this point. are goingthe lukens to force a vote on a resolution dealing with cuba to kind of put firerats' feet to the distance between themselves and the party nominee. joe: bernie sanders certainly targeted last night for his plans for government run health care system. he and elizabeth warren support medicare for all and the true
cost of such a system as come under fire. let's bring in elizabeth baker. formerly a member of the council of economic advisers where she played a leading role in the development of health policy. there is really two compartments. there is the political risk, people get nervous about the idea that they're going to lose their insurance which they may like currently under the existing system. then there is the economic risk. what are the biggest actual economic risks in your view from shifting to a single-payer system? >> expanding access to health care is of vital importance. moving wholesale would have major implications for all patient care and the health care providers currently in the system.
lessu pay providers a lot than now, you should expect to see less health care available. if you reduce co-pays for patients, that is wonderful in terms of increasing access for care, but it also means a lot more demand and health care. some of it less valuable. those two trends colliding. had esl this particularly to a public that already got spooked by obamacare. and you have a situation now where certain unions have plans which would arguably in their current state to be better than some of the proposals pushed out there by elizabeth warren and bernie sanders. what is the selling point? >> the mechanism could be very
different. -- you need to have a serious discussion about how much health care that is. goldplated health insurance for everyone. there is so much that modern medicine can do, that if everyone has all of the care that might be available, that is more than 100% of gdp. once you have that conversation, maybe the answer is not medicare for all. to top uple than able the insurance if they have the resources. that is a difficult conversation because that suggests a two-tier system. scarlet: when we try to put numbers to it, it seems like it is almost fruitless to say how
much it will cost. , what is thean best way for them to make the point that this is a necessary initiative that requires trade-off on all sides, yet not scare the public when it comes to how much it will cost. >> i am an economist. i will put a number on anything. i think we have to put numbers on these things. pretending that expanding medicare to all u.s. citizens would somehow pay for itself is misleading. hope onanging a lot of administrative savings. certainly, there is a lot of scope, but i don't think there is nearly enough money to pay for a goldplated plan for everyone. whether that is reducing how much you pay providers, introduce more copayments for
patients to try to get patients steered toward high-value care. i don't think there is a realistic way to see -- to say that a medicare for all plan would not result in massive increases in taxes. the discussion we need to have is whether that is our preferred way. romaine: we will have to leave it there. i grew up right down the street from there. beautiful college. don't forget to tune in to our special coverage of super tuesday. live analysis of the democratic contest. that is march 3, 7:00 p.m. eastern time. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ effects it is time for --scarlet: it is time for smart charts. we are joined by michael sheldon. volatile, crazy trading week the back of the declines we saw last week. do you think more is going to come in terms of moves up or down? over the near term, nobody really knows what to expect from the coronavirus. the question is how much disruption will there be to the economy? ebola, thet aids, sars virus.
what the research indicates is that at least in the six-month period following the breakout of the next 12t, over months, markets were higher nine out of 11 times. next let's bring into the equation a fundamental picture on consumer confidence. one thing, the coronavirus, it is still unknown. of consumer chart confidence. it came out earlier this week. they basically look at 3000 families and history of the summer confidence. the consumer represents about two thirds of the overall economy. wages are rising at a moderate rain and household balance sheets are in pretty good shape. that is captured in this chart here. consumer confidence, we think it rose to a six month high.
we are encouraged by the data but is news about the coronavirus spreads, we could see some weakness. i think the volatility in financial markets could cause some of april back near term. scarlet: let's bring the earnings into the equation. for earnings and white. as we talked about forward 12 month earnings when i was here in december. forward 12 month earnings with the s&p 500, and it basically shows that stock pieces tend to follow the direction of corporate profits over time. the estimate for corporate profit earnings was 9.4% for the s&p 500. last week, that number is down to about 7.7%. we think earnings projections are coming down somewhat as
investors anticipate or look ahead to some dislocation in the economy. how much at this point is yet to be determined. scarlet: finally, let's take a look at the u.s. risk versus the rest of the world. charts is a long-term going back to 1990. the all country world index, excluding the u.s. trend over ands to number of years. from 2009 to the present, u.s. markets have outperformed for markets. corporate profit growth has been stronger. however, that is not always going to be the case. we have been overweight u.s. markets versus the foreign markets. at some point, these trends will change in the future.
back in 2017, the world bank issued its first-ever pandemic bond. it was a compelling case to shift to investors some of the risks of outbreaks. of course, you had the ebola crisis at the coronavirus outbreak raising questions about the usefulness of those bonds. from cambridge, massachusetts. these were modeled after catastrophe bonds, which are pretty commonplace in the market. the concern seems to be the triggers with which money can be
released and that those triggers are too stringent to actually matter. >> you are right. these are kind of catastrophe bonds. they are modeled after the catastrophe bonds better known for earthquakes and natural disasters. it is very difficult to define triggers for disease outbreaks. the triggers are very complex. because of the high uncertain date, the triggers are not really suitable for the purpose for which these bonds were issued, early disease control. joe: the premise of catastrophe bonds, people front a bun of ifh -- a bunch of cash, there is a catastrophe, they lose a bit of their principal.
they like catastrophe bonds because they are uncorrelated. , if we have aand pandemic, it is likely to cause major economic slowdown and thus the performance will be correlated with the other assets we are seeing around the world. >> that is one of the issues with this instrument. diversify away to portfolio. it is just not going to work. because once it is triggered, everything else is going down the way we have been seeing the past two days. as we talked about, there are a lot of flaws here. do you have confidence that this could be better designed if it
were done in the private sector, by private insurers, for instance? olga: i want to make it very precise. it is a not world health organization fund. it is a world bank fund. course, but health responding to disease outbreaks under the auspices of the world health organization. design, improving the don't think so, it is just not feasible at this time to design an instrument like this for epidemics. it is what we call an uninsurable risk. there is so much uncertainty in the model underlying this instrument that basically the risk that investors are assuming is model risk. part of what they are assuming
is the disease risk. actuallyhe risk is model risk. it does not make any sense to create risk to offload to the markets? romaine: is there an alternative here? the premise behind doing this seemed to be rooted in something sincere. olga: there is a much better option. the error from the start is that there is a lack of money for outbreaks. it is absurd for the world bank to say that the reason there was no response to the outbreak in 2014 earlier was because there was no money. fundorld bank has a large for developing companies, now
$82 billion for three years for from thecountries pandemic bonds. it is a question of priorities. and a question of preparedness by the institutions and by the country authorities to respond to an outbreak as soon as possible. the money is not the issue. it is the preparedness that is the problem. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us today. coming up, we will bring you president trump's news conference on the coronavirus. joe: i'll be watching economic data. gdp in jobless claims out tomorrow. romaine: north korea central bank an -- the central bank of korea announcing decisions overnight. this is bloomberg. ♪
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