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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  June 3, 2020 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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haidi: welcome to "daybreak australia." these are your top stories this hour. tension is in the air as the u.s. bars chinese carriers as relations between washington and beijing reach another low. stand a rally for the eighth day as investors cling to the hopes of a
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post-virus recovery. banks leading the s&p 500 to a three month high. level since highest early march and hopes opec-plus will eventually rebalance the market. however, divisions are showing among reducers. -- producers. shery: let's get a check on how markets are trading. we are seeing some pressure from u.s. futures, down slightly as we saw the extension of the rally on the s&p 500 now at that three month high. of course we had a report indicating that a recovery it was underway for global airlines. -- led bowling higher boeing higher. as. airline shares surging passenger flights are suspended from chinese airlines. 500 and now the 14 day rsi around 59, the
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highest since january. optimism right now over and economic recovery. take a look at what oil is doing. wti under pressure. we have seen uncertainty over the opec-plus deal. we got ape limit every deal to extend output by one month but there is still issues over cheating on output. saudi arabia and russia drawing a hard line over compliance. we continue to watch the energy patch. investors looking past all detentions, be a trade or on the streets of the u.s., but continue to cling to optimism that we will see a positive reopening globally. it looks like global stocks, asian stocks will go into this nine days of consecutive gains. japan's futures, we are seeing weakness when it comes to trading in chicago, but otherwise we have seen gains this morning. also looking at australian futures at the highest since
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about march. despite the treasurer yesterday confirming the australian economy has entered a recession. it is perhaps expectations that we are seeing other data points bounceback that this will be a short, not a sharper recession as in other parts of the world that is dropping -- driving that optimism. the aussie dollar hanging on at $59.22. tension is in the air again when it comes to the relationship between washington and china. flights from chinese airlines and retaliations for american carriers being barred from entering the mainland market. it is another low point in u.s. china relations, amid continued relations over trade, handling of coronavirus, and the future of hong kong. stephen engle joins us now. what is this latest development, just adding another layer to the increased tensions we are
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seeing? stephen: there are so many lawyers to touch on this morning. what a day. theon june 4, by the way, 31st anniversary of the tiananmen square incident in beijing. that is another incident. but first on the airlines, donald trump has issued an order suspending passenger flight to the u.s. by mainland chinese carriers, in particular air china and southern china eastern airlines, in retaliation for beijing barring american carriers from reentering china following the coronavirus pandemic. butoes into effect june 16, the de--- department of transportation in the u.s. says it could act sooner. beijing has prevented u.s. carriers from restarting service, but four mainland carriers have kept up their flights, at least on a limited basis, to the u.s. the order stopped short of an outright ban, and it allows chinese carriers to operate one
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flight to the u.s. for each flight china grants to u.s. carriers. and keep in mind, donald trump has had harsh words on revoking its privileged treatment of hong kong. no word on whether cafe would eventually be affected, cathay pacific, the hong kong main airline. you mentioned the broad rally on wall street. airlines had a great rally. united airlines come alaska, leading in a surge. also on evidence that perhaps air travel is starting to pick up a bit. you mentioned another company that has felt the impact of these growing tensions in hong kong, hsbc. we are finally getting a stance from the agency. stephen: that is right. hsbc caught in the middle. for beingeen blasted static -- silent on the national security bill, not voicing support for them in particular by the former chief executive.
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hsbc now has come out in support. petition insigned a support of that proposed security law. that wewe reiterate respect and support laws and regulations that will enable hong kong to recover and rebuild the economy. but as i said, it is a delicate position for a firm like hsbc, which generates half of its profits in asia. much of that tied to china. but that is based in london. there is that old saying, in times of trouble you keep your head below. hsbc has tried to do that, because keep in mind, their branches were targeted by protesters last summer. big lions were defaced by protesters, anchored that hsbc had closed or frozen accounts of protesters last summer. hsbc is keeping silent, but that
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saying the ire of them, many of your eggs are in china's basket. you need to come out and support. a lead protester said this case of hsbc is a vivid example of demonstrating china will use the security law is new leverage for political influence over florin business communities in hong kong -- foreign business communities in hong kong. haidi: we will be talking of this theme of a perfect storm, and it certainly is a confluence today when it comes to china and hong kong. we have the anniversary of the tiananmen square massacre, as well as this controversy security bill. stephen: yes. the vigil is likely to not go ahead to go ahead as planned tonight. it has been banned by authorities for the first time in 30 years, citing social distancing regulations which are still in place that do not allow more than eight people to gather together in one group.
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thousands of police have been mobilized to keep people from protesting, or even breaking into smaller groups, as they have promised. one group is encouraging people to post photos and comments on facebook, twitter, and instagram around 8:00 p.m. using the hashtag, well, i will not mention it, but you can find it if you want. it is just another incident of protesters saying that their freedoms of assembly are being squashed. as you said as well, they are under the threat of a national anthem built which is being debated, and carrie lam just returned from beijing today. she says the beijing leadership has heard the opinion of hong kong people, and remains with thed to go ahead implementation of this national sovereignty national security law. so, again, protesters have
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blasted that as well, saying that dolores and with kim and lamb -- with carrie lam happened in beijing, not under hong kong, where it will be imposed. shery: stephen engle there. more on the outlook for china and hong kong ahead. we will hear from the china security institute and others. let's now turn to karina mitchell for the first word headlines. esper remains white house secretary despite refusing to use -- he said deploying forces would be quote, a last resort. a comment which is said to have annoyed president trump your but the white house said he remains secure in his job. more perspective on the protests in america coming up. elliott brennan joins us later in the hour.
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germany has agreed a virus stimulus package worth almost $150 billion to help europe's biggest economy through the pandemic crisis. chancellor merkel has undercut -- has brokered a deal that offers tax relief for companies, cash handouts for families, and incentives for car companies. they reached a near 12 week high on the news before paring back the gains. india's financial capital has escaped with only superficial damage from a rare tropical storm. ofyclone crossed south mumbai with torrential rain and winds gusting up to 120 kilometers an hour. he said he was to reopen later wednesday after a two-month virus lucked out, but that has been pushed back to friday. the stock exchange is supposed to open later. the airport was briefly shut. a planned a meeting of opec and its allies is in doubt amid claims of cheating by some members of the group. saudi arabia and russia are
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taking a strong line over with iraq inn, nigeria and others told to make a firm commitment. there is a report to be no agreement on a new date. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haidi: we are just getting some breaking lines from the president. president trump saying he does not think they will have to deploy the u.s. military to cities. of course this after some controversy between the president as well as his top aides being upset. the defense secretary mark esper had been publicly just -- opposed to deployment of active-duty sources to confront u.s. protesters across the country, as trump suggested.
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the president reportedly considered the pentagon comments on this to be out of line. president trump is currently speaking in an interview with sean spicer at the moment, and we are hearing he does not think it will be necessary to deploy those forces. we have seen the presentation of the national guard, and a couple days ago, the president said he militarywilling to put resources on the ground. ahead, stocks extending the global rally as investors cling onto optimism for a quick economic recovery. analysis ahead. plus, signs that the next wave of u.s. job cuts be targeting millions of higher paid workers. we get analysis, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
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global markets have rallied into the eighth straight day. investors continue to pile into
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riskier assets over optimism of a quick recovery. and the rally is broad. in the s&p four off -- any s&p 500, four stocks rose for every one that fell. great to have you with us. why do we continue to see u.s. stocks rallying while corporate stocks are collapsing? is this is brought a rally as it feels like, or is it more defensive posturing ahead of potentially bad news? susan: i think it is a broad rally, because we have several components here pushing investors towards stocks. the fed has said they would be valley -- very supportive of the economy. when interest rates are at zero, there are few options for investors where they can find some sort of return. i think stocks naturally look attractive by comparison. at the same time, i think investors have gotten better at looking forward. we have heard generally
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encouraging comments from management teams after this quarter's earnings and we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. the jobs report today, while still negative, is negative any millions, 2.5 million jobs were lost in may, but relative the prior month where there was a loss of over 19 million, people are seeing the damage to the economy abate. and i think investors now believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel. risk ofhat is the markets being priced for perfection, and what happens if we do not get such an optimistic scenario on hold? are there still sectors that are safe no matter what? susan: i think in this market you have to be prepared for volatility. far indulum swings too both directions. they get too optimistic but also too pessimistic. the market will be fluctuating between the two. if you can look to the longer-term, we are going to provide opportunity in stock
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prices, people get nervous. you'll see the bellwethers and safe havens also attract attention when people feel they need that safety. so do we continue to see this rotation story play out? i think think we do and we continue to seek support for the stock market. because we have heard from the fed multiple times now that they are there to support the economy. i think from an investment standpoint, when you look at your alternatives, you are listening to the fed and assuming that means interest rates will stay at 04 extended an extendedero for time. to get any timed -- any kind of deal, i am pushed back into the stock market. this is what happened when we came out of our recession. with interest rates so low, stock market became very attractive for investors because it was one of the two places they could get yields and it
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caused multiple expansion. i think we are seeing that start to happen again. haidi: if you take a look at the bond market at the moment, doesn't that tell you it will be a pretty miserable road to recovery, and are investors just ignoring that as an indicator? susan: they are always a little more optimistic than pessimistic bond investors. equity investors recognize it is a long road to recovery, but they are eternally hopeful. so they are looking at 2021, i think the bet is the second half of 2020, this year, will start to show some signs of improvement. i think most people are spending true normalization to happen at some point in 2021. i think equity investors are forced to look for a longer term horizon right now and are just waiting for cash flows to start improving. could the much longer
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horizon get if we continue to see these protests across the united states? we are taking live looks at protesters in seattle. if this continues, when will this start hurting consumer confidence, and how will that be reflected in the market? susan: i think that is one of the key issues. thus far, the stock market has largely ignored politics and ignored the issues behind the market. it is really focused on the present. what are the earnings, what are management teams saying, let me focus on the business. since the start of the trump administration we have had a lot of background noise. the market has gotten good at ignoring it. i think what we are going to see is see that continued focus, particularly into second-quarter earnings, which will be announced in july. i think management team commentary be very important. i think the danger here is that when we do see a negative impact on consumer confidence. remember that consumers have
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been driving this economy throughout our recovery. they are very important to continuing that upswing. if we do get that pullback in confidence, then we need the fed and the administration to provide support and help the economy get back into its groove. we haveust quickly, seen u.s. private payroll numbers today come in better than expected, but many are worried there could be a second wave of job losses. what sectors will be hurt the most? susan: i think the pressure on disposable income you definitely have to worry about consumers. we already seeing that damaged. obviously some things have been damaged by the covid crisis, and what does that imply. when will it be safe to go back to cruise lines, airlines, etc. backup and consumer confidence and a concern would cause those
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stock tip in a tent -- potentially see weakness again. also consumers need to feel confident going forward just in general terms. entire market is subject to that confidence level. investors as well. i do not think any particular sector is at risk. i think what happens is we have a confidence issue for the whole market and then of course you will see settling of prices but ultimately with 0% interest rate , equity markets remain the place to be. susan, great to have your views. out on a big interview with barclays coming up. the bank is one of asia's top four in terms of trading revenue. we speak with their aipac had a little later on. a lot more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the pandemic is not
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finished with the u.s. labor market, threatening a second wave of job cuts, this time among white-collar workers. joining us now for more is katia. we have had more than 40 million people losing their jobs and clamming on a plymouth benefits. what does it mean for the managers of those workers who have lost their jobs? when can we see the second wave hit? katia: it has likely already happened and we are likely to see details of it in the may jobs report and that comes out this friday in washington. so what we wanted to do is really take a look at this next wave of job losses because as you highlighted, the 40 million people apply for benefits, but a lot of those were blue-collar workers. that initial wave of hospitality workers, retail workers, restaurants were shutting down. what we see in times of recession and labor market
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distress is the ripple effect. it goes out, then it goes to managers, and it goes out to other industries. so if you have a restaurant, you are probably hiring a company to manage your online presence, ads, those are the kinds of jobs we are going to see in this next wave of job cuts, which are starting to happen right now and will continue for the months ahead. the estimates from bloomberg economics is that it will be about 6 million jobs in the white collar space on the line. that is everything from managers, to more quote unquote blue-collar industries, all the way up to things like administration support services, professional scientific technical services, education, with the state cuts, insurance. even banks and credit unions. so we will see this wave roll over the coming months starting with data friday.
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what does that mean for a recovery that is so pinned to consumer spending and consumer sentiment? katia: you know, it really makes it difficult. in the u.s., we rely so much on consumer spending and coronavirus has completely upended that. and you see these estimates for further job cuts, and you think about the kind of spending that goes on in this group. make morepeople who than the average $60,000 per year in the u.s. they are the ones going out and shopping and spending that discretionary money that will help the economy recover. but without them spending, even something as little as the two income household, maybe one person got their hours cut, they will probably not be going online and buying more sweatpants, or an exercise bike or whatever else people are buying lately. youithout that spending,
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might be less likely to see the recovery which is becoming more and more of a distant idea that fewer economists are thinking will happen. katia with the latest on the u.s. labor market. we have breaking news right now. former defense secretary jim mattis making some comments in an interview, saying that president trump is dividing the nation in using the military. his condemning of the president, saying that president trump does not even pretend to unite americans, that the president has tried to divide the united states. really using troops to provide a bazaar photo op -- bizarre photo op. this, as protests continue across the united states. we are seeing live pictures of seattle.
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president trump has come under fire from bipartisan criticism after tear-gassing peaceful protesters so he could take a picture outside a church. he is facing condemnation now from former defense secretary jim mattis. this is bloomberg. ♪ s. this is bloomberg. ♪
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you are watching daybreak australia. the trump administration is ramping up tensions with china, suspending access for mainland airlines and what it calls retaliation for u.s. carriers being barred from the mainland market. beijing stopped american airlines from flying to china during the coronavirus pandemic, although chinese carriers continue to service u.s. airports. on. airline shares rode up signs that travel demand is starting to recover. top britishtwo banks say they endorse china's plan, saying it will quote, hope maintain economic and social stability. hsb -- they are backing the
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controversial moves saying it is at the core of hong kong's future. hsbc and stand chart have london opposites -- officers but make most of their money from asia. china says it has tested 10 million people in the city of wuhan for coronavirus and 300 are carrying the infection but are a symptom attic. attic-- but are a symptom -- asymptomatic. the bank of england is telling lenders to plan for a no deal brexit at the end of the year. , therare statement governor said a hard split is not one of a number of outcomes the u.k. must prepare for. the brexit transition period expires at the new year and they are refusing to consider an extension. --ks are currently extended
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suspended because of the coronavirus. the fiscal deficit will continue to widen as the virus drags on the economy. the finance minister said the deficit will expand to more than 6% gdp, far exceeding their original target of 3%. she says she hopes the economy will achieve some growth this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. let's get back to our top story. public defense secretary jim mattis has published an extraordinary condemnation of president trump saying he is dividing the country and using the military. --tis said let's get over to elliott
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brennan. we are looking at live pictures of protesters continuing to gather in the d.c. area. we just heard this really remarkable comment from the former defense secretary james mattis. and we are also hearing that there is discontent with the current defense secretary esper as well in terms of the pentagon's response to the suitability of putting troops on the ground. what does the president's response to this national crisis tell you? elliott: it is quite interesting to hear that jim mattis has spoken out. he has been giving private briefings about his personal views about how the presidency has been unfolding. we were told he was waiting for the right time to speak publicly about his views. so it is interesting he chose now as a time, as the u.s. is clearly in a state of crisis. what we are seeing from president trump over the last
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nine days has been a continuation of the way he has approached much of his presidency, and even much of his political life, where he has leaned into pre-existing grievances and amplified them. it's given him some political success, but in a time of crisis, it has clinically activated both sides of the spectrum and it is having disastrous effects across the country at the moment. obviously these tensions stretch much farther back than the trump administration, but he is dividing the nation in exactly the time many other presidents would have acted to unify. four: we are now just months away from the election. at the start of this crisis of out of commentators were saying this is the perfect distraction for trump in terms of being able to veer away from his
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administration's mishandling of the coronavirus epidemic. does that seem this would play favorably for trump going into the election in the way he is galvanizing his base? elliott: it has certainly provided, as we see so often, donald trump, his sons often test some of these lines. trump isnk eric tweeting about how this will spread the virus, and is starting to blame some of what we are going to see is the worst of infections. testing thatessage this was the cause of the problem. it's incredibly concerning to see how covid-19 will play out over the next couple of weeks, whether or not people feel safe to get tested, and how cases are affected. but every night gives way today -- to day, and as the teargas
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clears, another 20,000 people roughly are diagnosed with covid 19. so these are two crises really operating in tandem, but cannot really be separated from each other. the lockdowns, and also the unequal way in which covid-19 has fallen, has really entrenched anger in the u.s., which has led in some parts what we are seeing play out at the moment. mentioned message testing when it comes to blaming china for the coronavirus pandemic. of course we have seen china itself try to take advantage of the ongoing protests in the u.s., needling the trump administration, the chaos we are seeing on the streets. will this play into beijing's hands? elliott: absolutely. whenever you have these huge, massive crises, there's
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opportunity for actors to leverage them, both domestic and foreign. in this really puts a dent the united states' international reputation. the whole world was watching as peaceful protesters were cleared from lafayette park. australia, where there is often some jovial comments about the u.s., it's really quite concern that i am hearing now. a lot of people cannot seem to grapple with how this could have happened in the united states. so, the united states' inte rnational reputation is on the line here, and that gives foreign actors to take advantage of what is going on as the u.s. deals with a deep pain. time, and yet at the same how surprising is it that we are seeing all of this anger just explode right now, given that
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these inequalities in american society have existed for a very long time. when the pandemic hit, what was really surprising to me is we were talking about who gets health care, sick leave, and who does not. so how long has this been boiling over underneath the surface in american society? elliott: a long, long time. violence,e of police decades. but covid-19 has changed the face of american activism and protests. we certainly saw during the anti-lockdown protests that people were frustrated that the economy had closed. but while you had conservative protesters out on the streets, there was a whole another trench unemployed,my, the homeless communities, and incarcerated communities, that were being decimated by covid-19.
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and you saw people on the street agitating for a reopening of an economy they already feel left them out. so you have this simmering anger as covid-19 has really hurt people who were already hurting. and now it has led to this explosion of anger across united states. but the thing is it could always entrench the anger on the conservative side of the spectrum, where there were so many businesses already hurting from covid-19 lockdown. for all the talk of a rebound in the economy, nationwide rioting entrenches those economic losses. stores cannot just reopen at the snap of a fingernail. a lot of rebuilding has to go on, a lot of repairing, and a lot of healing, both economically and across racial lines in the united states. shery: great having you with us. oilng up next, an ultimatum. cute prices fall as opec's
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extensions could be in jeopardy. we will discuss the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: let's get a quick check of the liz business flash headlines. uber's global ride-hailing business is down 70% from last year, a slight improvement from its low point during the height
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of the coronavirus. they say any recovery will be slow. speaking at a virtual technology conference, the ceo said the isline in the rides business being partly offset by food delivery, which has more than doubled during the pandemic and is still accelerating. amazon is diving into the weak aircraft market, leasing another 12 planes as it looks to expand as i cargo operations. amazon will add the converted boeing 767 passenger jet to its current fleet, taking his total number of planes to 80. one was added last month and the next will joint next year. it comes as a global aviation industry reels in the fallout of the coronavirus. they have raised almost $2 billion on its debut in the biggest u.s. listing of the year so far. shares of the music label initially climbed to $25, open debt $27, and eventually ended around up 25% at nearly $31.
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that values the company just short of $14 billion. warner is now the only one of the three major music companies to trade publicly as a standalone entity. let's turn to oil now, where we surgingtreat after a two to three month high. greater uncertainty about whether opec producers will adhere to upward curves, putting the recent rally at risk. let's get to su keenan on the line with us with the details. we saw this rebound in oil march, theened since price war. the rebound has been explosive. we aree a sense stumbling in sentiment. su: there are a couple concerns.
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technically for the first time charts are showing oil is overboard. we just got a u.s. government report testing fresh doubt on the strength of recovery demand. and we have opec, which is meeting next week. saudi arabia and russia are really reaching a preliminary deal to extend production cuts, but it is conditional on securing new commitments from the other numbers -- members, that they will stick to what they agreed to. that is where the doubt is. 80%-plus. astounded at what we have seen after that precipitous drop. the question is can the rally be sustained without a clear commitment from opec. meanwhile, more on the outlook for fuel demand, we had inventory data in the u.s., much weaker than thought, following the inventory data that shows
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that diesel demand, used by trucks and commercial transportation as well as in some jets, it fell to a 21 year low. while inventories rose to the highest level we have seen since 2010. then you have the gasoline issue. gasoline supplies also swelled, suggesting consumption in the not onlineera is with what estimates were. we have new york city, hardly seen any traffic because of the prolonged shutdown, and now we have curfews in the city. i had a friend come through earlier this morning and he said it was like a ghost town. so whatever driving there was in his major city is now curtailed in many cities around the country there are curfews. that adds further questions about gasoline demand. tell us a little more about the ultimatum that opec
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leaders are imposing on so-called cheaters. su: we have saudi arabia and russia, the two leaders, really pressuring iraq and nigeria to comply. the ultimatum is stop cheating on output quotas or the strict measures could start to be phased out. and the hardline stance is really what is projecting uncertainty, that they have to give such an ultimatum. it is one of the reasons that brent crude, which surged just back to the $40 mark since the fell time of the pandemic, in the first hours of trading. and there is concern that without a new agreement, the opec-plus group is going to start using its cuts next month in line with the yield brokered by president trump. so a lot is depending on the meeting. shery: su keenan the latest on oil. scott sheffield is the ceo of
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.ioneer and natural resources he told us the price hit $45 to $50 a barrel before the start looking at growth again. scott: $40 is a blessing in disguise. nobody is going to add rigs at $40 oil. there was concern there were two large producers adding back horizontal production. i am sure that will have some effect on the opec-plus meeting. as you know, russia has not liked u.s. shale growth, but i am trying to convince opec members that are industry is changed, it's all about less growth, it is all about returning back to this -- returning cash back to the shareholders. $50eed to get up to $45 to before you see people adding rigs or frag fleet. reporter: how long can you stay that view?
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all across the curve than the last two weeks, how long until shareholders are like, let's go, let's drill? scott: the big push for most investors is slow your growth down. i think the days are gone of double digit growth for the u.s. shale industry. as you know, most companies have too much leverage. the first dollars coming back for a lot of companies, not pioneer because of our great balance sheet, but most companies will use that cash flow to repair balance sheets when the equity markets are closed. there will not be a rush back to adding activity at all, in my opinion. reporter: have you learned anything about decline rates? one conversation in the oil industry is you do not put capital into old wells and you do not make new wells, your decline rates will be really curtailed in six to nine months. can you give me insight into where we are in that conversation? scott: as you know, most shale producers, the average decline
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rate is between 35% and 40% year. if there is no investment. i think most companies are trying to keep their production flat, with some small decline, maybe 10% from 2019 levels. the big unknown is are people going to hedge 2021. there are about 23 billion hedges in 2020. most of those roll off. you are at 2021, essentially a little above $40. so who will hedge at $40 thinking there is an upside? willt do not see -- there be a natural decline for u.s. shale. i'm still predicting we will be down, u.s. production will be down below $11 million -- 11 million barrels a day. but we cannot keep growing. reporter: picking up on that last point, when do you actually see the market going back into balance? scott: i think the key is demand
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in this equation. we havehe demand side, to watch people's driving patterns. as you know, a lot of discussion, nobody is flying on the airlines, we are all locked down in our various countries. the airlines use about 8 million barrels a day. so i am pessimistic that airlines do not come back until we get a vaccine, which would be in 2021. i expect to get closer to 8 million barrels a day in 2022, 2023, when we should get close to 100 million barrels a day. i think demand will get up to about 95 again fairly quickly, as countries open up. that it will stagnate until we see something happen in the airlines. but we have to watch people driving. in china it is picked up, the u.s. picked up. the question is how much demand for gasoline we see with people driving. so demand is really the key question.
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that was pioneer natural resources president and ceo scott sheffield joining us. let's take a look ahead to oil. katie bays is with us in the next hour to talk about that, plus energy services director john driscoll will be with us later. let's take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to trading in australia. posse 10-year any spotlight after trading above 1% for the first time since march. we are also watching trading in the aussie dollar, which continues to climb. looking at consolidating that 69 handle, despite essentially australia slipping into recession after almost 29 years of economic expansion. lots more to come on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪
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australia is it specter to report a huge decline in retail sales for april later this morning, as well as a fall in trade balance. haidi: numbers, day after us show you trigger -- australia's treasurer says they are in recession. this is shallower than expected. what is the data today likely to show us? paul: at this point we are all about ugly numbers.
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the retail numbers were expected to show a decline almost 18%, following the 8.5% rise in march, mainly people front mostly toiletes, paper. that did help the first quarter gdp numbers, only a contraction of .3%. but now the second-quarter gdp contraction will look pretty steep. the trade balance is also expected to be down to 7.5 billion in surplus, down from march. exports seen shrinking 14%, rehearsing expansion from march. in boxing continuing to sink, down 6% in april. we can see things start to improve inmate, speaking to the recovery. we saw a big one in commodity prices when china opened, especially around oil.
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also today australia's prime minister holding a virtual summit with india's prime minister. trade expected to be on the agenda. paul: the summit was meant to take place earlier, but was it will happen online. trade will definitely be discussed. maritime, security, education also on the agenda. in terms of trade, it is heavily weighed in australia's favor. worth of australian exports go there. india is the 20th biggest. there is a really -- 28th biggest. australia it would like to see it get even bigger, because there is concern about overreliance on china as a trading partner. have chinay suspending imports. china is denying there is a link
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to australia's call for a coronavirus investigation, but it is hard to escape that conclusion. this summit between them is a chance to explore ways to deepen that relationship between two countries that are democracies. paul allen in sydney with a let us cross oil. coming up, we more analysis on the tension between china and the west with asian society vice president wendy cutler. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ . you doing okay?
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♪ shery: welcome to "daybreak asia," i'm shery ahn in new york with haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are counting down to the market opens in japan, australia and south korea. top stories, tensions after the u.s. banned chinese carriers as relations between washington and beijing reached a new law. two big reddish banks bank that -- back


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