tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg June 15, 2020 2:00am-4:00am EDT
france and germany and others remove travel receptions spur tourismu. to and britain's nonessential shops opened today as well. stocks fall on fears of a wave of rhinovirus infection. over 20 u.s. states see a pickup. tokyo sees the most cases in over five weeks. beijing reports another outbreak. plus, bloomberg learns of an internal plot at nissan to take months beforeown his arrest in japan. the information comes to light and is due to face a trial in tokyo. just under one hour away from the start of cash equity trading. let's take a look at how far down futures have fallen, right now looking at 2.5% drop on the stoxx 50. the benchmark index. futures down a little bit more than that. teachersok at u.s.
as well. s&p 500 e-mini contracts approaching 3% losses. nasdaq futures off. what does the gmm look like? anna: i'll get to the gmm in just a moment. pricel giant revising its assumptions and expecting to take a charge in the second quarter. they see a non-cash impairment and the write offs. they are assessing the carrying value of the groups. that reassessment from charges has arisen. charges estimated to be in the range of 13 to $17.5 billion. ranks inee how that terms of interest levels for investors in bp specifically. they are reviewing their intent to develop some of the exploration prospects. as i mentioned the
redhead mind just crossing the bloomberg. back to the gmm because you rightly -- on the futures and what we are seeing in terms of the european equities market. low expectations. u.s. futures also really weak, as you mentioned. down by more than 3% on the dow. weakness coming through strongly in the asian session though some of these markets down considerably. japanese market down by 3.5%. a south korean market down by more than 3%. a real risk off move. money going into the dollar as a result. classic risk-off pivot. doinge the u.s. 30 year particularly nicely this morning in a phase where the bloomberg dollar index shows a move to the upside. it is interesting to ask where the second wave conversation goes next because at a time there we saw the first wave hitting developed markets, there was a big link between expectations of a real decline
in economic activity and the extent to which that looks the same this time or looks frank, can that link be broken by testing and chasing technology? can it be broken by a nuanced, targeted approach from policymakers and law down measures not having to be the big sledgehammer we saw the first time around? that will be key as we move through the summer. matt: very interesting stuff. adjusting to see the dollar index down, dollar index up today in the face of so many new calls, fresh calls for dollar weakness as the safe haven trade unwinds or that was and remains the case for people like stephen roach. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. these are today's top news stories. china is racing to get control of a coronavirus outbreak in beijing after the biggest rise in cases since mid april. the city's largest fruit and vegetable market is surrounding
housing and has been shut down. it is the largest test of the country's strategy to contain the virus since the pathogen first emerged in wuhan. things are looking up for the u.s. economy according to the white house economic director, larry kudlow he told the's state of the union that growth in the u.s. is recovering and there is a very good chance of a v-shaped recovery. president donald trump's chief economic advisor rejected a more cautious outlook by jerome powell, saying the central bank's chief comments had been really morose. shop with confidence. that is the message from boris johnson. review of aing a two meters social distancing role as he tries to encourage consumers to grow and by nonessential -- to go and buy. they fear keeping the distance requirement will hurt businesses. atlanta has become the new focus
of the nationwide black lives matter protest. that is after 27-year-old black man was fatally shot by two white police officers while fleeing during arrest late friday. the city's police chief resigned hours after the killing and the officer was fired. three dozen people were arrested after protesters set fire to the wendy's restaurant where the shooting took place. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. anna. let's talk about these markets. risk assets start week on a new note as european and u.s. stock futures fall on the latest plandemic news and fall increasingly. the dollar climbed against major peers as investors gauge the second wave of coronavirus infections. let's get to dani burger. 20 states in the u.s., tokyo,
beijing, tocsin second waves. that is flicking the market to quite a large degree this morning. dani: it absolutely is. everybody has a plan until they get punched in mouse. -- in the mouse. we looked at what equities were doing. theyrisk assets, how can continue to rally from here when we look at the ground? the picture, the economic picture? when we start to get the narrative shift in the markets, and this is what it is about, the narratives starting to change in markets. that is when you can get this in differing of opinion and you can get the frost taken off the top. it's not really clear whether this will be a sustained downturn or if it is just fast money getting washed out at this point. one of the things we can look at is how thin a lot of the liquidity has been. volumes are not exactly robust so far this morning and on that
big thursday, we really saw the selling pressure was intense's onto the down side. a sickly buyers had disappeared from the markets, so that lack of liquidity really drives these losses. the day that perhaps does not necessarily warrant a huge downturn turns into one because there is really no one on the other side of the bed. when you have these factors starting to stack up, you can see the effect snowball. a lot of traders i have been speaking to this morning told me that what is really missing here perhaps is sound fiscal policy that in 2008 to 2009 selloff, the big 5% down days really reflected a mismatch between what was going on in the economy and the response from different fiscal players. perhaps they are looking at states starting to reopen, lack of support may be for smaller players. and at the same time, the virus .ount starting to go up
looking at the weekend trading figures, it was down the entirety of the weekend. once we get markets open, you get this to be, really negative attitude. as i say, because there's not a ton of conviction out there, because the liquidity is not that strong, it has yet to be seen whether this is a sustained downturn. manus: -- matt: to that point, we see some interesting typical safe haven plays. down gold, for example, down right now, looking at bitcoin right now, down to 9000, just over $9,000 right now, so it is not every safe haven that is getting. . as i am sure you know and i am sure stephen knows as well, the aote originally comes from former heavyweight champ, mike tyson. everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. -- let'se on to continue with our market coverage here. the second wave versus reopening.
anna: welcome back to the year. market open. 45 minutes to go until the start of the european equity trading day. european futures point down by more than 2%. u.s. futures weaker on dow futures paid with that in mind, let's talk about where we are. stocks turning lower after friday's reprieve. u.s. futures under pressure. of thef a second wave coronavirus seemed to be overwriting positivity that the european economies are beginning to reopen. in the u.k., nonessential retail
shops are opening their doors. that is basically that is not food or pharmacy related. cross-border travel is being actively encouraged to germany, france, and others ahead of the peak summer season. joining us for more is the bank of america's head of investment research his work focuses -- research. his work focuses on the trends of the new consumer to the changing global order. let's talk about some of those trends. broad picture. good morning to you. i wonder how much your themes stand up to a second wave. your investment seems that you are working on or dealing with at the moment. are they robust enough to deal with a second wave? >> first of all, definitely yes. we are talking about the next couple of years, two years to three years, and we think that coronavirus is going to shape a lot of the trends. the megatrends will impact our life in the long term. second wave is part of it. this is not going away.
it is going to reshape everything. and we are going to have to live with coronavirus side-by-side with us. the economy is going to have to adjust to that. society is going to have to adjust to that. people will have to adjust to that. maybe even a third wave. matt: what are the themes then that you want to bet on, that you want to invest in, knowing or planning for a second or even a third wave to come? haim: first of all, we think the coronavirus is going to shape up and change a lot of the things. it will accelerate megatrends we have been talking about for a long time. first and foremost, we already started being geopolitical pressures when the two superpowers, china and the united ways, are taking advantage of the coronavirus to increase influence and to reshape lowball economies and the influence in different countries had as a result of
that, we are going to see a restoring of activity. that is a trend we have been talking about for a long time. where we start to see that, that is going to atac war. morell see more and investment in technology. we always start to see that come down to infrastructure. down to broadband, semiconductors. will gong around that faster. we are going to see a complete reassessment of the health care market. health care from here on will be a new economic trend, new economic power, geopolitical power, so that is something that will be completely reassessed and we will see a new consumer. we are going to be digitalized. we will work more from home. we are going to focus more about sustainability. all of that will reshape the new consumer. anna: absolutely.
plenty of trends to be watching for. you talk about big government crafting a new social contract in developed markets and you rely on some of the market analyst of your community at bank of america to do this for one third of your analysts see a drop in some shareholder rights, a rise of the stakeholder economy instead. for better or worse, how should shareholders navigate that? haim: shareholders need to understand they have a new stakeholder in the government. it is not necessarily whether they will buy direct stakes in companies from here onward. they will be new stake holders whether it is regulation, intervention, new compliance rules, new governments rules. you said that right. one third believe the shareholders rights are going to change for the coronavirus and if you add to permanent -- give or take 60% of americans believe
shareholder rights will change post coronavirus. that is a strong statement and each and every industry, does not matter which sector, country, or space, need to understand that from here onward, it is unique stakeholder. matt: we are going to keep you with us. we have more to speak with haim israel, the head of investment research at bank of america. they with us for that. coming up, from the emergence of the gen z consumer to our new focus on i.t. spending, we will toback with haim israel shape a post coronavirus world. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> yesterday, while the market was due for a pullback, i think the tone of that was also too harsh. >> where equities bottomed out and how fast and explosive they rebounded, they currently got overextended and a lot of that has to do with the feds money policy. >> as the market was selling off, it seemed like everything was going to rally because the fed was behind you. the fed is behind you but they are not going to rescue everybody. not everybody is going to make it so you have to be a lot more careful. >> even with all the policy response, it will take a while to get back to the long-term growth potential of the u.s. economy. >> it is going to be a checkmark. it is not going to be a sharp v. >> we are concerned the market has priced in a really positive bounceback and economic growth that may not materialize. the: those were some of guests on bloomberg television reacting to the stock rout.
while european and u.s. stocks rose on friday, we can see futures are back down pretty sharply today. looking at almost 3% losses on european equity index futures and if you look at u.s. equity index futures, you get to the 3% level. on the dow jones industrial average e-mini contracts. so that is what we are working with right now. let's get back to our guests. haim israel is with us from bank of america. i have a key question to ask you about on this point. anna was pointing out that the bloomberg dollar index was rising again today and i saw a number of calls, fresh calls from morgan family, repeated opinion piece from stephen roach on the bloomberg saying they expect the dollar to weaken as the safe haven trade unwinds. what do you think about this incredibly important variable?
going tothink there is be globalization, polymerization between different countries, and we are going to be re-shoring of activities, and that is going to string than economies, economies which are going to be more influence by automation that could bring back a lot of activities. that also brings back the united states and other countries as well so that will have a direct impact on the economy and that money flows. about --, and you talk talking about the effects of this longer-term, you talk about the effects. perhaps we are going to end up with two different text fears. is that something you can invest natureor is this by its limiting your investment opportunities in tech? haim: what we are seeing right now is the two superpowers. in order to fight for
geopolitical influence, you do that behind a computer. the key weapon is going to be technology. it will be investment in new infrastructure. it is going to be a processing power, data, and so on. there are going to be infrastructure, everything around 5g and so on. we also are big levers in data. storage, cloud computing, and so on. we think part of it is going to come from processing power. so those are key centers we think that will benefit. we will see acceleration in investment in technology partially being driven by governments because this is going to be a key interest from here onward. matt: do you have a regional take at all? you mentioned the superpowers. we see the u.s. increasingly isolating itself in terms of global trade. last week, i thought it was interesting that angela merkel
in berlin was reaching out to xi jinping and li keqiang in terms of trade, trying to -- in a bridges where the u.s. has been burning them to some extent. haim: i think that also the united states understands that the road for a -- for a global economic power, growth for investment in other countries, we have seen the u.s. equivalent to the chinese -- the one belt, one road project of china. it is still in an early stage, not the same magnitude as the united they. we are seeing a change in terms of global infrastructure spending. we have seen china and the united states are way above other countries in terms of r&d expenditures, in terms of infrastructure, in terms of patterns we are seeing. they are way ahead of japan,
well ahead of europe. and we continue -- we will continue to see those continue to gather more and more investments going forward. we do understand that the global infrastructure is being spent right by china. it will have a lot of advantage going forward. accelerating investment a lot. europe has been a rock and a hard place in terms of infrastructure. they have u.s. and chinese infrastructure, which they are relying on for r&d expenditures. caretrends are in health and a few other sectors, but when it comes to technology, u.s. and china are by far the latest. anna: i wanted to ask you about health care and how investible this is. you talk about it as a resource for governments. i wonder if that is something that lives longer than our
concerns around a coronavirus vaccine. definitely. first of all, and understanding that globally, we spend roughly 10% of global gdp on health care , give or take 8 trillion dollars worldwide, but it is completely inefficient. today, we are throwing away give or take between 20% to 40% of this number just because of inefficiencies. are printinghich money and increasing deficits cannot increase this investment but from the other side, they do understand that the road for global recovery and their influence goes through a strong health care system. look at countries which are managing to open up their economy because of a strong health care system. we do believe the solution will be found out by health tech, infusion of technology in health care, and that will be the way going forward. matt: thank you so much for your time this morning.
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matt: welcome back to the european open. 30 minutes away from the start of cash equity trading. the stories we are watching for this week. andr today, boris johnson the european commission president will hold a call to to breakeak -- to try the impasse in exit negotiations. wednesday, jerome powell delivers his semiannual monetary policy report to the house
financial services committee and thursday is another big day for central banks. the bank of england and the swiss national bank both report rate decisions. a lot of talk about the bank of england's considerations on negative rates. maybe that will not prove necessary or they don't believe they will be as helpful at this point. anna? anna: let us talk about the aviation sector. easyjet returns to the skies today. they resume flights 11 weeks after the last airplane landed at gatwick airport. fromparted a half hour ago the london airport and will arrive in glasgow. we speak to you one grid, the ceo -- we speak to johann lundgren, the ceo of easyjet.
gatwick is a shadow of its former self right now. johan: yes, it is a very big day for us. the airport is not -- does not look like what you would normally expect it to be but this is a very positive step. we are starting with a small program and are very excited about it. matt: how quickly do you expect to ramp up? you bey flights will able to resume as european borders open up? , we arehis week andating about 310 flights it is across 22 airports in europe. eight bases in the u.k. demand is progressing, we will look to increase that. in july, we expect to be the wholebout 50% of network and in august, about 75% of the network. september,ugust, and
we will have a majority of the network coverage. bear in mind in terms of capacity, it will still be about 30% of what we originally ran. anna: that is interesting. with that in mind, where do you see pricing heading? do you expect the overall dynamic will be one of price war or price discipline? initial phases as we start up, there will be a lot of attractive fares out there but we do see demand coming in particularly outside of the u.k. the demand is dampened by the quarantine the u.k. put in place as thatk but hopefully gets replaced by something else, demand will pick up and pricing levels will be relatively normal. one should also bear in mind that the capacity and the supply are far less than what you would
expect as well so that will clearly play its part in it comes to what level the pricing will be. matt: what does that mean in terms of how packed the flights will be? hypochondriac but i don't want to sit next to someone on an airplane. will you make prices low enough so i can buy two tickets? johan: we have quite good load factors the first couple of weeks of flying starting today and the remainder of june. pricing and load factors are elements that will be solved by the demand we have versus the supply. load factors will not reach the .ormal levels we would see it is also the case that that will increase as we go through the summer. clear, are alle
of the seats on your plane available-for-sale at the moment or have you dropped any out for distancing purposes? johan: all of the seats on the aircraft are for sale. there is no social distancing being right met -- being recommended by the authorities. the only thing that is different is visible to the customer is that we will not serve any food on board and you are also required to wear a face mask. we also do a deep disinfection of the aircraft every 24 hours to supply additional protection and the measures put in place that are recommended by the authorities. , we hear from michael o'leary for example that he is prices to getsh
people flying and also to take market share. does that mean you will not be playing that game if there is going to be price competition? will easyjet stay out of it? johan: we always said that we would focus on making flying available that makes a profitable contribution to the company. and it is on that basis that we are planning our program. the pricing in this industry is very dynamic. you will see there is going to be some very attractive fares out there but you will also see that it is going to be dynamic. when the demand matches the supply level, which is currently significantly lowered. curve does not look that dramatically different. inis also true to say that the initial phases, there will be some attractive fares out
there. anna: what about summer booking? in terms of the summer bookings come to what extent will air europe ate place in anything like normal levels? what kind of guidance can you give us? johan: it is extraordinarily difficult to predict because there is a scale of uncertainty out there. we are looking at 30% of the planned capacity we had in mind for july, august, and september. if we get new demand when it comes to new bookings -- it is a sales in thee from u.k. versus outside of the u.k. , we are seeing an effect from the quarantine put in place but we are feeling quite optimistic that it will evolve and increase as we go
through the summer months. is the availability of information for consumers? i would love to fly to edinburgh. idea if i have to then quarantine for two weeks when i get to scotland. i don't even know if i have to quarantine when i get back. does that play and how hard are you working to get that information out to travelers? johan: we are working very hard to get this quarantine measures put in place. it is now a law to put those in place. and also make sure that the agent can be there to collect people which is so very important as we go into the phase of economic recovery. -- or that the
quarantine is only there as you fly into territories with a higher risk of infections. it is confusing. the u.k. government has put this thatace at the same time other restrictions outside of the u.k. are being removed. it is confusing for the customer but that is the reason why we are working so hard with the government to get them to make a change from the public health point of view. the quarantine is not effective and it prohibits us from operating and it also delays people from booking their holiday. it is important for all of the economy is now in europe. anna: what are your expectations around that quarantined rule?
you and other airlines have launched legal action. do you expect to back-check on this essentially or do you expect it to be a short-lived thing? what is your hunch? johan: we believe they are working actively on all of this. what the result will be remains to be seen but clearly, our suggestion is that you put active international air corridors or you remove the general blanket quarantine and only put one in for when you are flying in from the territories where there is an increased risk of infection. i think there is an understanding about their government -- about their argument in the government. putre looking for them to that into place as soon as possible. we can see that there is some demand to come through here in
the summer months that are so -- that is so important for us and for those across europe. people need to get back to work and people want to go and see family and friends across europe. that is what we expect to happen. plan now setfleet or could there be further cuts? your founder has warned about the dangers of further expansion in the next few years. what is your fleet plan with that in mind? johan: we have done amendments with our contract with airbus. we will see some flexibility. we will be at the lower end of where we can be for the fleet. for next summer we will be roughly at about 300 aircraft. about 50 less than the original
plan. but we will also have the capability to scale up if we see the demand their which is an important thing to remember. the key now is to have flexibility when it comes to the fleet. if thereally knows demand will come back. most companies have reckoned it will be in the area of 2022 or 2023. that is what we have adopted so that we can cope with the lower level of demand but we can also increase that when it comes to capacity when the demand returns to where we think. that is the key. the flexibility. ast: fascinating and complex well. fascinating stuff from you. the chief executive officer at talking johann lundgren
about the rebirth of that business. as retail reopens as well, boris johnson urges britons to shop with confidence. to shop withains confidence. i would love to. would haveugh that i to go into quarantine for two weeks. they could not be a weekend trip. we look at that as well as futures. this is bloomberg. ♪
we see big spikes in cases and new problems in hotspots like aging. in terms of the reopening, there is a key milestone for part of the u.k. economy. from today, all stores in england will be a allowed to open their doors for the first time since the march lockdown. consumers to urges go out and shop with confidence stayhey will still have to two meters apart from each other and this only applies to england. right? stillnd is apparently going to be locked down pretty tight. we are joined by kyle monk, head of the british retail consortium. was telling us that they do not have to deal with any social distancing regulations. they will put someone right next to someone even if they are coughing and yet you have to
deal with that in shops. why the difference? kyle: that is a very good question. there was some research that meterse risk between 1-2 was only about 1% higher than between 2-3 meter us. that is a big difference in retail. there are different rules for different industries. our main goal is to keep owners safe. anna: we have been talking about quarantine of people when it comes to air travel. what about quarantine of products? what is the new etiquette we will have to get used to for shopping? we worked very closely with government and the sector to reduce a set of guidelines for these sorts of scenarios. something to bear in mind is
with the food sector, we have taken learning from there. any huge uptick in cases as a result. as long as retailers are sensible and customers are sensible i think the whole quarantine piece will not have to be a sticking point -- have to be as big a sticking point as it could be. ways that variety of retailers can keep their stock viable and available for customers. matt: how many do you think are going to make it through this? i was speaking to somebody who represents small to medium-sized statesrs in the german here over the weekend and he said he thinks the third quarter
is when you will see the big spate of bankruptcies. is that a concern for you in britain as well? kyle: the government support has been unprecedented. large business schemes -- matt: here also. kyle: it will provide for businesses. we are working with treasury to make sure as many retailers as possible can secure that funding. , thatl come to an end support system so next quarter will be a challenging one. we are confident -- retail sales were down 5.9% in may, the second-worst record -- the second-worst month on record. as long as consumers are outspending and the job
potential is there to cushion discretionary consumer spending power, the country will be ok. anna: do you think there is a trend towards online shopping by those that did not previously do it? is that trend here to stay? kyle: definitely. most was spent in stores. that has changed over the last two months. we have seen with food in particular where the infrastructure is quite expensive. supermarkets have hired tens of thousands of people and spent millions on infrastructure costs. and many that never shopped online before said they will not go back to shopping in a store immediately. some of that gain in online
spending will not revert back to where it was before. anna: thank you very much. matt: we were talking about -- oh. i guess we are going to say thank you. i was going to delve into that only for my personal interests because i want to go to scotland but i don't think i am allowed to. thank you, kyle monk. here with having you us on this momentous, it is a big step for england but it is not momentous. anna: i would say it is a step in the right direction. let us see how we go. you the stocksng to watch including bp. millions of dollars in charges in write-offs. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. right now, six minutes away from cash equity trading. futures down. even more sharply in the u.s. let us get over to dani burger to get a check on what is expected this morning. we are not expecting huge volume. what about the individual movers? thoseh&m is one of stocks. coming in with their sales. the down numbers starting to ease in the first 13 days of june. 18% of their stores are still closed compared to 80%. basically, the picture is getting better for h&m. i'm also looking at bp which changed their financial assumptions.
they now see a long-term impact from the coronavirus. they say they are going to make billions in write-offs and impairments anywhere between $13 billion and $17.5 billion. that is a big impact. they see demand continuing to wayne so shares are down 3%-5%. so shares are down 3%-5%. anna: thank you. a look at individual movers at the start of the trading day. big picture story around the second wave. to this week,ad we will be keeping a close eye on what central banks will do. have they done everything they can in terms of the coronavirus response? europe do point higher and u.s. futures do point
anna: a minute to go until the start of cash equity trading for this monday morning. europe reopens its borders. france, germany, and others removed travel restrictions within the eu. and britain's nonessential shops reopened today. of a secondon fear wave of coronavirus infections. most cases in over five weeks and beijing reports a fresh outbreak. bloomberg learns of an internal plot at nissan to take down carlos ghosn months before his arrest. this information comes to light
as the company itself is due to face a trial in tokyo. what does the open of european equity markets look like this morning? matt: 10 seconds ago, we still saw futures down. 2.5% drops here in germany. a little less on ftse futures. if we pull up the global macro mm, we canen, the g see what an array of assets are doing. 1.75%.e opens down a pretty rough open for the ftse and the ibex in madrid is down more than 2.5%. we are seeing some deep red across european equity indexes. open andave the aex the netherlands come also down 2%.
paris also down 2.5%. stoxxhe broader euro also down. there you have the ftse mib in milan down almost 3% at the open. european markets getting hit hard as u.s. equity futures are also pointing down sharply as worry over a second wave of infections are overriding the reopening narrative here in europe and in the last joining us now is ben gutteridge from invesco. we have to give you credit on this one. cautious and conservative in terms of your
expectations for an economic rebound. it looks like the market is catching up to your view in the last week or so. ben: i will take credit where i can get it. thank you very much. clearly, it is not a great day for investors today. wave -- still a second concerns over that has moved -- have moved into investor sentiment. i don't think we need to be too disheartened. i don't think policymakers will be sleepwalking into this second outbreak. they will have gathered experiences from the first outbreak to make more thoughtful policy choices. they can give us some confidence that these hot spots can be put out relatively quickly. there is some risk associated with that for certain but
policymakers being better prepared could keep markets from hitting those prior lows for certain. anna: this does not have to be like march then is the message if we do see policymakers with tools,anced and targeted this could quickly rebound. it could be an opportunity to differentiate between g -- between geographies based on the ability of policymakers to respond intelligently this second time around. ben: that is quite right. i think investors will be looking at markets and seeing that there has been opportunity thisve -- a comes back to value growth. this policy -- if policymakers come ifond efficiently
there is no reversal of the containment policies to any great stretch and if economies can continue on this slow reopening trend, then perhaps a dropcks won't suffer as they did in the march downturn. levels of cashre on the sidelines could find its way into the markets. , the topry kudlow economic adviser to president trump has said an economic recovery is an act of nature and there is a good chance that we will get a v-shaped recovery. do you think he is right about that at least in the u.s.? does it look like that anywhere else to you in terms of regions? ben: i think you can expect some snapback or v-shaped recovery as that pent-up demand penetrates the economy. that should generate something
quite remarkable in the data but it is the consistency of that and of course much of the -- much of those outcomes will be determined by the data flow on the infections. does the second wave become more choicest or can policy and consumer experiences influence the system more positively id we do not get -- i.e. we do not get a more worrying spike. perhaps the upside prospects are possible in the recovery. some say the economic recovery with be subdued but medical breakthroughs or if policy choices and the tremendous level of government support can prevail, there are
upside risks to the economy. that is because the consensus is so cautious. anna: let us see if we get any positive vaccine news around july which i understand is the timeline to watch on that front. let me ask about the oil prices. bp making millions of dollars of write-offs and impairments after they had to reduce the price assumptions that underpin expectations. this is having a big impact on share prices of the bp down more than 4% in today's session. what is the best way to play the oil price at this point? ben: clearly, the energy sector has some cheapness. some of the integrated oil majors have quite a bit of sensitivity to the oil price.
certainly in relation to the dividend news flow. will oil service companies have a direct play on the oil price. assets such a difficult to call. on balance, we have a modest, upward projection for the oil price as the global economy recovers and there is some discipline from opec regarding supply and the private sector should leadhut down to some modest pressure on oil prices which should support that sector. that is aaid, difficult commodity to call. you could get into real trouble. the higher-quality, integrated will have thers right way to play the oil price.
european open. we are 10 minutes into the session and are looking at more across theosses continent. about two and change on the ftse as well. 74.pping down to 59 u.s. futures are also sharply lower. the bloomberg business flash. top corporate stories. bbc's the coronavirus pandemic having a long-term impact -- bp sees the coronavirus pandemic having a long term impact. it reduced its assumptions for the price of oil and now sees brent trading around $55 a barrel in the long-term. tois also reviewing plans develop some of its exploration projects. -- prospects. h&m reopened the bulk of its
stores after countries loosened lockdowns. theyou -- sales fell 30% in first 13 days of june. like other retailers come -- like othered retailers, e-commerce eased some of the pain. unilever. the consumer goods giant aims to zero out all the from its operations as well as its suppliers by 2039 and is going to show off its work. the labels on the company's products will show how much greenhouse gas was emitted in the process of manufacturing and shipping them to consumers as well. that is your bloomberg business flash. cycle is --rket
that is according to morgan stanley. greater confidence in a v-shaped recovery. what will a rebound look like? but us get back to ben gutteridge from invesco. he is still with us. we talked about your expectations for the shape of the recovery. i wonder what the latest out of china can tell us about that and help inform our expectations for the second half of the year. looking a little sluggish based on expectations for china. as a usefulhina model in terms of where recovery comes from? ben: yes. i think china is a useful model. i think there is plenty of evidence now as people go back to work and as a economies reopen come it is a slow and somewhat lethargic process.
activity in restaurants and social environments is very subdued. there is evidence that economies will recover and it will be relatively slow and certain sectors will find it hard and that the journey to recover will be longer and harder to overcome. there is something of a template there. consumers have different practices. ms says you are getting paid to move down the risk scale in terms of credit. do you still want to be cautious considering may be the wave of bankruptcies that we could see in q3? ben: it is for certain as you
allude to that defaults are going to pick up and it is the extent to which you are willing to bear that risk. i think at the moment we are, like many others, keen on investment grade but the marginal move is into high-yield. there was some differentiation generallytion -- but come investment grade corporate bonds are doing ok. we havee a little -- if a relatively optimistic outlook on the global economy, corporate should do ok and high-yield should do a little better. we are moving in that direction. the degree to which you want to play has to do with your willingness to take risk. attractivedoes look
certainly relative to investment grade and we are moving in that direction. we are just cautious. ora: talking about havens moving away from havens, i wonder what you make about the bunds.d pull on possibly some investors even talking away from moving -- talking about moving away from them. what are your expectations of that part of the debt market? ben: i do not have particularly high return expectations. that should not come as a shock. but i would always caution against those saying they have lost their diversifying quantities.
-- diversifying qualities. the downfall into the very appealing camp for us but we do not dismiss them. ben, it has been great having you with us. ben gutteridge from invesco. if you want to hear more from ben and we will continue to question him later on today, joining us on bloomberg radio at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. as with everything else, you can find bloomberg radio live on the internet or on your bloomberg mobile app. coming up, boris johnson makes a direct intervention into brexit talks today. will this meeting persuade
across the region. we have the ftse down more than 2%. back down under 6000. we were flirting with 13,000 with the dax last week. six trading sessions of go. ,670.ow we are down to 11 size drops in paris and milan. in terms of the movers, we are bp.ing -- we are watching it is lowering its oil price forecast to about $55. and we have a long way to go before we get there. bp said there will be permanent changes due to the virus. easyjet is restarting flights after 11 weeks. to the ceo a little earlier and he told us they
maybe to get back to 50%, 60% capacity by july. easyjet right now down by just about 1.8%. cineworld is one of the big gainers but of course, as i say that come it does turn lower. -- as i say that, it does turn lower. it drops the cineplex purchase. it has now succumbed to the drop. let us just say unchanged, anna, shall we? anna: regardless of the share price, some of us are desperate to get out. let us look at what is happening in the ok borst -- in the u.k. boris johnson will hold a video
call today in an effort to rejuvenate the trade talks. they have struggled to make forward movements. is this good enough to break the deadlock? getting boris johnson with the eu president? will this break the impasse? how low or high our expectations? maria: it will probably not break the deadlock. we still have six months to go in the negotiations but it is true that everyone was waiting for this meeting to happen. it is finally happening. [indiscernible] we still have six months to go before the deadline kicks in.
up till now come it is no secret that the trade talks have not gone well. there have been many issues starting with coronavirus. they could not meet in person. ideaverall, there is the that progress has not been made. johnson is hoping to come getnd reset everything and something out of this. we will see if the language changes. from the brussels side of wondering how'm much contact you have with people on the ground there -- how much appetite is there for leaders to change their appetite for the deal? to bend over backwards to help the u.k. out? maria: the training overall is not ideal because european
leaders are focused on the recovery. this is what their economies depend on and what they care about. relaunching their own economies. the timing is not ideal. when it comes to changing the mandate, they do feel the lines were set out in the political direct -- in the political declaration which is not politically binding. a look at it as good intentions. kind of compromise in the mandate. it is already circulating. is that thisoften will probably take another meeting in july and european leaders will not move until them because they are preoccupied with their recovery at this point. colleagues inur
brussels suggests it could be a long impasse. here are some of the things we will be watching for. later today, boris johnson and the european commission president, ursula von der leyen, will hold a call. on tuesday, the bank of japan announces its latest monetary policy decision. it is not expected to take any far-reaching measures. the yield curve control is something of an export theme. another big day for central banks. thebank of england and swiss national bank announcing their rate decisions. up next on the program though we are 26 minutes into a very negative trading day for the european markets. indeed butnegative we will talk to somebody when we come back about venture capital.
anna: welcome back to the european market open. we are a half hour into the trading session. it is gloomy news if you are long in the markets. once again, concerns around a second wave and what that will do to economies globally. the stoxx 600 is down by 2.4%. the focus of the market is on aeas we are seeing talk of second outbreak and to some degree, outbreaks of emerging. from a sector perspective, what is interesting about this none are inssion --
positive territory and none are down less than 1%. even the best performing sector, health care is down by 1.6%. across the board, selling. thinking about march, when we see money coming out of even some of the haven stocks. 0.8 prices are down percent. at the height of this, we saw money coming out of the haven because people were selling -- out of the havens because people were selling where they could find liquidity. yields coming down. matt: let us get the bloomberg first word news. top stories from the bloomberg terminal. china is racing to control and outbreak in beijing after the biggest rise and new cases since mid-april. food ands largest
vegetable market and surrounding houses have been locked down. shop with confidence -- the message from boris johnson who is launching a review of a two meter social distancing role as he tries to encourage consumers to go out and buy. nonessential stores opened in england. and atlanta has become the new focus of the nationwide black lives matter protest after a 27-year-old black man was fatally shot by two officers while fleeing an arrest on friday. the police chief resigned hours after the killing and at least one of the officers was fired. three dozen people were arrested after protesters set fire at the wendy's restaurant where the shooting took place.
global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. anna? us talk about what is going on in the world of venture capital right now. as the coronavirus has kept all the key workers at home, there is a previously unthinkable way of life. more than 90% say they will consider home working in the future. this shift has been especially seismic for venture capitalists who normally would have spent much of their time on the road. let us talk about that and other matters, i am pleased to say that haakon overli from dawn capital joins us now. everyone is getting into working from home from people in my job too many others. what are the investment things
you are looking at? we talked to a number of people looking at real estate and what it means for changing real estate markets. the opportunity is huge because what we are seeing is changes that we weren't anticipating taking place over several years. they have been dramatically shortened. and i think also what we have seen which is reflected in the , today is a gloomy day in the morning but over the last aremonths, the cloud stocks up. and what we are seeing is it is coming out in a relief how important tech is to a modern business. and that people are not turning
thatthe software, in a way we would not have envisaged years ago. there are now great solutions that are integral into how companies operate. pad which allows you to do remote sales -- this has accelerated this. what happens in sales meetings and how can you teach best practice to the rest of your sales force? what are the good people doing? ku which helps you look at data more quickly. things are changing so rapidly. and to do that, you need to have a solid round asian. -- a solid foundation.
the big changes we are seeing are happening quicker than we had anticipated because everyone has to solve problems much quicker than when things are more straightforward. matt: how long do you expect this to last? and how sticky do you think this will be? you studied mathematics in oslo and then got your economics durham.nteri -- in will we get back to normal shopping, working, and living? --kon: that is not something i read an interesting article the other day which i think over emphasized how normal we think the past normal is. even last year, things were changing. quickly in terms of how people were behaving and what they were
buying. changef very fast-paced in technology and now we are having a different change. and there will be a different -- i think a lot of people realize how much they can get done at home. announcedwe at dawn -- we had metgo the founders before but not at the deal. i think it gets back to a lot of things that were already happening and now are getting accelerated in a very interesting way. i spent my life on the road because there was a
social compact in that you were supposed to turn up and talk to the various stakeholders to show that you cared. and now, people are realizing that you can do that remotely which is interesting. i don't think the old normal -- normal changes. let me ask you -- you mentioned a number of the companies that you have invested in. what is it that unites them? what is it about tech companies that interests you and makes you think that it fits at dawn capital? haakon: the most interesting thing with our job apart from the change that happens in societies when we get to be these amazing -- when we get to meet these amazing founders. that is what unites them. have amazing founders.
they are excellent individuals and amazing leaders with great listening skills. that is what unites them all. they areh that, software. software that businesses rely on to run their own businesses. then we look at things like data which is very important in today's world. we look at how you store it, how you treat it, and make sure you're not breaking laws when you store and analyze them. and when we have interesting toa, the bad guys want steel it. -- steal it. is cashlessge
exchanges with merchants. how do you sell software into this changing environment, managing -- home, and now, some big company will have 700 software vendors. just looking at the list of companies you are investing in that you have invested in -- it seems -- it almost makes you look clairvoyant but i am sure you would not have wanted to forecast this kind of crisis. in any case, these are the companies that you are working with more and more. -- haakon overli.
matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. 44 minutes into the trading day and still looking at 2.5% drops across european indexes. the dax. 300 on mib in milan.e and the ftse 100 in london is down more than 2%. under 6000.ll bloomberg the business flash. the top corporate stories. bp sees the coronavirus pandemic having a long-term impact on energy demand spirit the oil ofor will make billions dollars in write-offs and impairments after reducing its assumptions for the price of oil. it sees rent crude trading
around $55 a barrel for the long term. it is also reviewing plans to develop some of its prospects. the sales declined has used at h&m. 30% in the first 13 days of june after tumbling 50% in the three months through may. like other retailers, e-commerce used some of the pain. is going to announce a $4 billion stimulus program for the auto industry today with a plan for the vital tourism industry coming later this week. fortwo sectors account almost a quarter of the nation's gdp with cars making up a fifth of the exports. both sectors have been severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. is expectedeconomy
to shrink more than 50% this year. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: talking about the car sector more but from a different angle. carlos ghosn always said he was sets out. now, there is some evidence that may support his claim. our senior editor joins us now from tokyo. to take a deep dive into what was going on behind the scene before we saw the toppling of carlos ghosn. what evidence have you found? and what does it tell us about what was going on while carlos ghosn was still there at the business? andf you think back to 2018 carlos ghosn begin arrested in november of that year come it came out of the blue but our reporting has discovered that there was a much more lengthy and methodical campaign stretching back to at least february of 2018 by some very
powerful insiders at nissan looking to essentially remove carlos ghosn starting with a concern over his push to further integrate nissan and renault. it's automaking partner of 20 years. during the middle of the year, we see nissan working with prosecutors. on the eve of carlos ghosn's arrest and attention, we have nissan sort of seizing the opportunity to use his removal or pending removal to rebalance and refrain the relationship with renault. this just adds a lot more context around what was happening in the months leading up to carlos ghosn's arrest. and after that, we saw even more
drama starting with management turmoil at nissan. they did get some of the changes with renault. and then of course, carlos ghosn's dramatic escape at the end of the year. nissan did the investigation and they were excited to get the dirt. they were enthusiastic about using it to change their fate. does it look like to you though that his claims are based in truth? that he was set up or framed? because the company wanted him out. extent at least in a legal sense, we may probably never find out because carlos ghosn is unlikely to face a japanese court room. also, you have to remember that nissan has been fairly consistent in saying there was no link between the investigation of carlos ghosn or
anything to do with the alliance. what at the same time, when you look at the communications -- but at this thing time, when you look at the communications, there was a lot of activity motivatede surface by people to run up the year and that is what we of been able to report on. anna: thank you so much, read stevenson.-- reed glimmers of hope to outshine the embers of fear. that sounds cryptic. that is the long-term view of our markets editor. how does that stack up in light of the second wave of the coronavirus. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are down across the board. looking at drops of more than 2% in european equity indexes. it is not necessarily a day for optimism or maybe it is. if you want to buy stuff, no better time to do it then when it is trading at a discount.
.oining us to discuss is eddie you are coming out with glimmers of hope outshining embers of fear a little bit later. i want to ask why do you have these glimmers of hope right now? is it the reopening of the economy? -- the natural economic rebound we heard about from larry kudlow? winning-shaped argument you over making you want to buy assets that have been hit hard in these last few sessions? >> i would not pay in my argument on the kudlow comments but broadly speaking i think markets are at a really interesting juncture right now. we are seeing a pullback. -- a bit of profit taking
and fear. we have seen what policymakers will do in the event of a lockdown. withwill flush the markets cash and if that happens, we have seen the markets respond and they respond positively. there is also the fact that just the onlyquities offer chance for positive money to be made. there are expensive yields. so that is not option. commodities are scary so there is no alternative. anna: [laughter] commodities are scary. what is the role of data in your assessments at this point of the we go on risk assets? because, sometimes we speak to guests about the data and it
seems it meaningful. other times it seems to come from a different world war it has very different context -- or it has very different context. when the horrible numbers came in, people started ignoring it but now, we are seeing from thes tick up lows. they are still terrible. and they will still be horrible for some time to come. things justg starting to look up and there is nothing in the markets like a story of hope just beginning. you can get on the wave early and ride it all the way up. i think that i the i -- i think that is the idea here.
it offers the entry point. matt: i understand that there is no alternative to equities but why the u.s. versus other regions? the u.s. response has been interesting. i've looked at everything they got wrong and everything they got right. treating everything as small, localized outbreaks is what we will see anyway. the u.s. has already tested this model. statewide lockdowns and lifting of restrictions as needed. idea to bet against u.s. equities in general. because wenteresting are finally seeing some fiscal would haveich draghi given his left arm for a few years back. now, we are seeing everyone get behind it.
♪ francine: stocks fall on fears of a second wave of infections. 20 u.s. states see arise in cases. your reopens its borders. france, germany, and others remove travel restrictions to the eu to spur tourism during key summer months. china's economy continues its recovery. industrial output rises through --though the number