tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 16, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT
emergency that requires an emergency lending program from the fed? 500, a correction below valentine's day peak. maybe they will start buying amazon bonds. young, there is an infrastructure emergency in america. here, onelion trillion they are, that is a lot of bridges to rebuild. it must be an election year. anxiety returns to beijing, it has never left brazil. me in take two and call the morning, it is "no longer reasonable to believe a malaria drug can cure this horrific virus." good morning, this is bloomberg -- this is "bloomberg surveilence." -- in mostancing entrance -- a most interesting tuesday. equities surged yesterday and
continue to move higher today. , --e is that pesky news going after apple computer in europe. there is a lot of apple business in europe. is peskyot know if it or warranted, i think the antitrust probe will lead to a conclusion. we saw the french watchdog a couple of weeks ago say they are looking at syntax. this is something we are concerned about when it comes to apple pay. whether other -- can have access to this. to sees a probe going on whether there is an unfair advantage to apple. we are not having these discussions so much in america. right now, it is our first word news. one of the largest provocations north korea has made in years. kim jong-un's regime has blown
up an office on its side of the border, according to south korea. anth korea has issued escalating series of threats against the south. it is unhappy that the south backs the u.s. led sanctions. jerome powell is expected to give another downbeat view of the economy. hearings two days of on capitol hill before the senate banking committee. that is at 10:00 a.m. new york time. policymakers held interest rates at near zero and said they would probably stay there through 2022. the -- administration is preparing an -- they plan to spend almost $1 trillion on infrastructure. money would be set aside for roads and bridges, it would also spend on 5g networks. the u.k. anti-e.u. believe they are one step closer to a brexit deal.
and the eu call has injected momentum. johnson is willing to soften his position. officials say they are willing to do the same. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. we really can say so much. i go to keep this short. we have a great set of guests this hour. equities surged higher in the last 24 hours. we have seen 10 big figures on the vix from a 24 to 830 four, now even under 34. futures up big. another percentage point moves there. yields across all bc, higher. francine: i am also looking at
yields, they are significant given what we saw yesterday. i am looking at this global stock rally continuing, europe gaining 2.2%. the pound up after positive talks around brexit. 1700. -- gold, 1700. joining us is kevin cirilli. what a joy to actually talk about policy. not the protests, not the pandemic, but may be something to be done on capitol hill. let's begin with principles on infrastructure. why does infrastructure fail to pass on capitol hill? kevin: because of the price tag. republicans prior to this that were skeptical of this type of stimulus as it relates to infrastructure. those folks are still at the table.
infrastructure is something the president has suggested he would like to get done. that is a $1 trillion investment. funds would be set up for 5g. the funding is set to expire september 30. broaderabout the economic stimulus, the trump administration saying if we are unable to get to a coalition of early august, may be stimulus coming ahead of november would be something they do. something from an american policy perspective that, regardless of who is in the white house, will likely come to fruition. --: is the way this work there is going to be a bridge to nowhere in florida, a bridge to nowhere in kentucky, and a bridge to nowhere in san francisco. maybe speaker pelosi will get a bridge to nowhere in baltimore. this is politics 101, and it
gets done. who is against this? kevin: more conservative members who are worried about the price tag. you make a good point in terms of pork and political favors. that traditionally has been done, but this is a different time. we are in the middle of a massive economic downturn. the president wants to inject fuel in the economy. when i talk to sources in terms of stimulus, they are saying let's give out the funds already allocated before they pass another round of stimulus. 5g, from anderscore 5g perspective, with the administration is saying is that it is not just about roads and bridges. worried -- the biden campaign has been pushing infrastructure stimulus for some time. wins inss of who will
november, infrastructure likely in the next 12-16 months. does it give an advantage to the trump administration because they are in charge now so it will be seen as a trump thing? kevin: that is a smart point in terms of the messaging heading into november. ae political reality is that massive type of legislation typically does not pass before november. , it willlly speaking be difficult to get something done before november, but we are not in a typical election year. the dust is still settling. francine: what does president trump think get him reelected? is his success still with
stocks, how much of it is on the economy? kevin: reopening. economy. the i spoke with a source on the reelection campaign, they told me to look for saturday at this rally in tulsa. there has been controversy, but this rally i am told is going to be massive. there are going to be individuals from across the party on stage with the president, really showing from a republican perspective there are moving to put the virus behind them. contrast, this is an opening bid to the biden campaign which has been reluctant to hit the campaign trail. --: quickly cure, dose quickly, two books, one on the first lady and one from mr. bolton. they will be extraordinary? , with the administration
regards to john bolton's book, they are saying not so fast. it could end up in the courts. this is pure washington. if your book is controversial, that means you are going to land on the new york times bestseller. stephanie grisham, a spokesperson for the first lady said it is pure fiction. tom: ok, thank you so much. never pure fiction from mr. cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. coming up, kenneth rogoff. stay with us. futures elevated. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ "bloomberg surveilence," from london and new york. chairman on the hill for two days, used to be called humphrey hawkins. always interesting to get the q&a. it will be interesting to see. i wonder if they will address negative interest rates. i do not think it will come up. we can do that with our guest, kenneth rogoff joins us. he has been a wonderful supporter of bloomberg over the years and we are thrilled he could join us. your --o ask you about the curse of cash. it was my book of the year a few years ago. update -- give us an update on the efficacy of negative interest rates in the
united kingdom and united states , given how they are fine it -- given how they are financial systems are so different. would negative interest rates help? ken: right now, there is so much going on, i don't think it would be a good idea to do something so experimental. years, after the government has gone through many ,ore stimulus spending measures after the federal reserve has tried to guarantee -- it has been a credit provider of last resort for a long time but things are not growing. i absolutely think this should be on the table. it is silly to take it off the table. it would work, but it has to be done right. i don't think europe has done it right. you have to deal with cash hoarding so you can make
interest rates very negative. , the studiesed coming out of the european central bank have been finding negative interest rates work well. they have not caused the problems people said. through oneen paths the banking sector from healthy effect ony find the investment similar to the normal monetary policy. i think that is what we can expect in the united states and the u.k. tom: are we nationalizing the bond market? that is the question chairman paulison will get from the center today. all of these programs including the announcement yesterday they will -- let's say they buy -- is it bonds anything but a nationalization of debt? it depends on what happens
next. if it turns out things get better quickly, this will look like a low cost move. funny, usually in crises before this, they would say, here is a company we think is solvent, but there is a liquidity problem so we are going to provide liquidity and make sure they can still get financing and not go bankrupt. on, there areoes a lot of companies that will need to change radically. they will be liquid because of the fed, but not solvent. they are going to run into trouble. they are taking a gamble. buts a smart gamble, absolutely it is a gamble. of course, this can't go on forever. you can't just have the taxpayer
guarantee every credit in the economy. francine: good morning, you could also have a situation where you have a second wave but only pockets of the economy are closed. how likely is that we have a second lockdown like we saw? ken: good point. i don't know. do iter if we have to again, if we locked down in the same way -- there are papers floating around that there are smarter ways to do it. i don't know. it is not just what the government does, it how people react. there are just localized problems that can be contained, it is not an issue. the likelihood is -- the likelihood of a major second wave is very high going into late fall and winter. maybe we will be able to deal with it better, but that is the
concern. enoughmething that was to scare people back into their houses. there are things like restaurants, hotels, cruise ships which feed into those which are going to need to be restructured. the question is how far that is going to go. are we going to still be in cities the same way we were? i do not know. i suspect there is going to be a lot of restructuring. we have not mentioned the political change which is going to have an impact on corporations. i do not think this is just -- i think we are going to see an acceleration of the movement for redistribution of income, deglobalization -- is going to have impacts on some firms. talking: we have been about deglobalization, do you think it will be a very stark
globalization -- deglobalization, or are we going to quickly get back to normal? how long will it take to go back to normal? had waves of globalization and deglobalization in the past. my view is that we are headed for deglobalization anyway, for political reasons. trump 2016 catalyzed that. there are things going to be brought onshore for national security, and a lot of other things brought onshore supposedly for national security reasons, like canadian steel. i think it will be significant. a lot of countries are nervous. to strengthenry
labor unions, that is hard to do when you remain highly globalized. harvard, youhat at "free lunchourse 302." free lunchlain the of zero bound? plunge goes to zero, who knows? there has got to be a price. ken: it depends on what we do. now, the global normal real interest rate is negative. andn that inflation is low they are not prepared to use negative interest rates, which is the only way to raise inflation if they wanted to.
concern really is this idea that therefore companies can borrow as much as they want and the government will bail them out. the government can borrow as much as it wants in the federal reserve will bail it out. of course, that is nonsense. there are limits. we are doing the right thing now, but it can't go on forever. i suspect we are going to see it go on for a long time. tom: ken rogoff. we are thrilled you can continue with us. we have a wonderful set of conversations for you with professor rogoff and other than adam tooze will join us. and then, the secretary of labor will join us. we will speak on the job economy and the supreme court ruling. this is bloomberg ♪
softbank's offering to sell $1 billion in assets after record losses. number learned of the firm was preparing to sell 20 billion -- $20 billion of t-mobile stock. -- as a tense comfortable tense couple of months for ray dalio. his hedge fund suffered a 15% drop in assets during march and april. that was because of heavy losses at the firm's flagship trading strategy. that is the bloomberg business flash. this is what markets are telling us. a little bit of focus on the pound after we had positive move -- positive news on the phone call between the -- commission and prime minister boris johnson. continue to rally, as we have been saying all morning, is on the back of the americans to the meal us. -- the american stimulus.
we are back. i wanted to ask you, professor, about china. how is china changing because of the pandemic and what is going on in hong kong, and the fact that they were blamed by many countries for letting of the pandemic it out of control? the u.s. was probably the main culprit in the 2008 financial crisis but seems to have come out of it stronger than the rest of the world. the dollar is more powerful than ever. china will be blamed, and probably should be for this pandemic, but it may come out stronger. we do not know. certainly, they are going to have a tough time exporting with the world in recession, roles growth slowed. i think there is going to be more trade restrictions on china. there are trying to run their economy with restrictions on
movement, trying to prevent the disease. they are not going to have an easy time maintaining growth. people who think they are going to come roaring back in a year, i do not see it. tom: with your public service to the imf, and your iconic textbook on international economics, is that the era of multilateral over? ken: i hope not. clearly, we need it more than ever, although there is change in the landscape. has become a huge issue, even in the financial sector. of way tome sort cooperate over that. in conventional finance, i am expecting to see a lot of bankruptcies in emergency -- in
emerging markets. we are going to need the imf where you have such financial problems. we are going to see a food crisis. that seems to be on the horizon. we are going to need the world bank for that. i hope not. the united states has been less interested than ever in these organizations. we need them. rajeev: tom: this is -- tom: these are important comments you are making. are we not preparing for those troubles because of derivative instruments, securitization and nations andt is not corporations representing interests? we have literally financial is those relationships with the emerging markets. helped emerging
markets in developing economies by being open to trade. that has brought billions out of poverty. been the most has important foreign policy of the united states. we are now running that into reverse, becoming a lot more focused on ourselves and more willing to block trade in various ways. also, they need help. i think there is a humanitarian crisis shaping up in the third world and developing economies the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1930's. all of the forecasts are showing this is the worst or second worst recession since 1870. talking about spending $3 trillion, $5 trillion, $7 trillion in our own country, there is no discussion of foreign aid.
there is no discussion of multilateral's right now. that is going to come back to bite us. it is not just humanitarian, but civil unrest and political problems -- there is certainly -- even if we managed to get out of this at 95% of what we were, which would be good in a year or two, the rest of the world is not. doy do not have the money to stimulus, to keep people don't haveto -- they resources for the collapse in oil prices and global trade. there are 6 billion people plus living outside of the advanced economies and they have been thrown off the track they were on the last 30 or 40 years. this is a huge issue coming up. are we going to talk about debt release? ken: we are talking about debt
relief, but not doing much. g20 did some debt relief for the very poorest countries where there's is not a lot of money at stake. the private sector has not kicked in. maybe china has. we are at loggerheads at the moment. there are going to be defaults. the question is, how will be try to make that happen faster? restructuringbt unwinds over years, i think seven years is the average. at the least, we have to try to make that happen faster. ken rogoff, thank you for joining us. ken rogoff of harvard university. we will speak to professor rogoff more. let's get straight to first word news. today, president trump
will sign an executive order on police conduct and reforms. it is his response to nationwide protests over george floyd. the order will lorch -- will urge police to restrict force policies. there will be grants for departments who curb chokeholds. the federal reserve is stepping up its emergency lending. the bank will begin buying individual corporate bonds. until now, the fed has only about exchange traded funds. the fed says it will allow a diversified market index of corporate bonds today. out ag trying to single new coronavirus out rick. -- coronavirus outbreak. beijing closed and food market after a case linked to the original cluster was discovered. invard has joined its peers a major shift in college admissions, it won't require
standardized testing for the fall of 2021. the pandemic has restricted act.s to the sat and the harvard says the changes temporary. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ritika gupta, thank you. we move from strength to strength. coming up, must listen worldwide. adam tooze of columbia university. this is bloomberg. ♪
"bloomberg surveilence." a wonderful lineup of guests today. kenneth rogoff was just which earth -- was just with us. now, adam tooze joins us. i saw him at lagos this year. a british historian described his contribution to thinking in the literature of our political economy. wonderful to have you with us. of longothers speak 20th century, what is the shorts 21st century look like after what we are going through right now. adam: the thing about the long 20th century was that we were often and for a long time expecting it to end. i think 2020 may pass the moment. we are subject to the accusation
of crying wolf, but the combination of microeconomic shorts and the technological gear shifts we were witnessing anyway some of witch was changing patterns of global trade, and the escalating tension between the u.s. and china, and more generally australia and canada, point two a fundamental break. concepts of deluge, concepts of destruction, there is an optimistic tag that if institutions do the right thing and we find a return to some form of economic growth, and if we find a vaccine, it will be something akin to business as usual. do you buy that? i think a technological
fix is what everyone is hoping for. unprecedented amount of money is being committed to that. we shouldn't rule it out. back in the us situation we think of as the golden age after world war ii? they are i am more skeptical. goodn't just a matter of ideas or harmonious multilateralism, those periods of growth after world war ii were configurations of power. they were centered and organized around the west and amongst eurasian allies around the power of the united states. it is that fundamentally which is in question. whatever emerges will be much more patchwork and multipolar, probably more subject to conflict then we have lived with it -- then we have lived with for many decades. francine: does this change if there is a new president at the
white house in november, or is it more structural? adam: the fact that the november elections look as pivotal as they look is a symptom of the condition we are in. if it is a --, the operations of the american electoral system or voters, the final judgment by the highest american court, that is a sense of fragility we have not had before. i think that makes a huge difference. the election of joe biden would be welcomed by much of the world , but it would be a normality in inverted scared -- because we know what the possibility is. behind the contingency is a structural shift. it is clearly balance of power, the global economy is shifting away from the west, away from the u.s., shifting toward asia with china as the anchor.
those realities are not affected by the american election. the euis morning, we had acting against apple computer on different issues. au mentioned earlier there is maldistribution of the advantages of technology. comforted bya be their technological leadership, or is that a fiction? adam: there is no doubt it is reality. we are seeing that in the force of sanctions the americans are applying to huawei. it is not as, complete dominance. it turns out the american economy and the european as well do not have complete control over the supply chain. there are key elements where only the taiwanese have the technology. that depends ultimately on cooperation. ,f you actually use the force
the technological dominance, how long is that last and how long withit take the chinese their formidable research and development capacity and willingness to squirrel away unlimited amounts of money -- how long will it take them to overtake us? u.s. tax system has been living for decades in what is essentially a global eco-trope. if you look at the origins of research students coming up through the university system, they are overwhelmingly not eco--- not native born. what does that look like when we cut off the access of hundreds of thousands of chinese students to that system? chinesepens when universities no longer have access to essential software? presumably, the responses to double down and do it themselves. francine: how quickly can that happen?
are we talking about a shift in the next 4-5 years? adam: that seems to be the timescale we are operating under. thee are realistic about vaccine, that's how long that kind of technology takes. the window here, that i would not -- though i would not bet -- the asiangent powerhouses, taiwan is now the absolute leader. it produces chips in a way that intel can't. it does not have the resources of mainland china. these technologies can be developed all over the world. we are talking about the ones which are familiar to us now. differentompletely logic driven by the availability of massive amounts of data. race could beest
francine: this is "bloomberg surveilence." as we continue to track the virus, bloomberg has developed a unique partnership with johns hopkins. they have been at the forefront of the response and every day we bring you insights from experts. today we focus on international affairs at what this means for various leaders on how they deal with the crisis. applebaum,ed by anne senior fellow of international affairs at the johns hopkins school of international studies. great to have you on bloomberg.
when you look at how various leaders have dealt with this pandemic, will it give them a reason to stay on, or go to early elections? i didn't hear the last phrase, could you say that again? ever -- howw will every leader has dealt with the crisis impact whether they can stay in power and how does that reshape foreign affairs? anne: it is difficult to talk generally about how the virus has impacted leaders. nation to specific nation, even across europe. you can see leaders that have been successful, or are perceived as being successful are being reinforced and are doing better. angela merkel in germany, the prime minister of greece, they
are perceived as having successfully fought it whether through technology or lockdowns. and you look across europe the world, those who are perceived as failing are in trouble. boris johnson is in trouble. he has been heavily criticized. the president of brazil, and so on. it is hard to generalize. one of the most interesting hascts of how the virus touched international affairs is that at the beginning, many people were saying -- partly because this was a chinese line of argument -- that it seemed as if dictatorships were going to do better. the chinese were pushing this idea that we can control it better. we can force people to do things, and so on. as the crisis has played out, particularly in more recent
weeks, it has become clear the dividing line between who has done well and badly is not dictatorship versus democracy, it is more to do with trust. countries that have high levels of trust and effective bureaucracies, have a lot of faith and -- faith in expertise ofe done better irregardless whether the countries are dictatorships. democracies have done well, dictatorships have done well, and those that have done badly. the impact is going to be complicated. francine: if you look at the reopening conversations happening in various european countries, why are they different? partly because the impact of the virus has been different. also, the politics are different. have this slowu
lockdown. you had a long period of time when the government resisted lockdown. then you had a very harsh lockdown. now there is a counter reaction and a lot of confusion, a lot of argument over whether people coming into the country should be quarantined, which was a policy the u.k. did not have at the beginning. there is disagreement over how much international travel there should be. whereas, countries that have smoothly lowered their numbers and are feeling safer or more comfortable with opening up. you see spain beginning to open next week. opening -- and these are countries that had very high levels of virus and high levels of illness. there is growing confidence in the system, people are comfortable about reopening.
the european union is trying to coordinate reopening. there have been openings this week, and there will be more into european travel. impact ofs that the that we will see in a month or so, and then you will see adjustments. francine: you are an expert in foreign relations, how does this change china's behavior to the rest of the world given the pandemic started there and they have been accused of not getting a handle on it? aspects, onere two is there is a wariness. there is an understanding the virus did start there. that china lied about it initially, and that it allowed to travel in and out of wuhan and international travel even as they locked down wuhan. there's is a lot of awareness around china in its reporting
how much death there was and how much under control the virus is. , the withdrawal a player in the ,nternational discussions whether it is conversations about vaccines, or borders, this coordination of lifting border vacuumtions, there is a that china may well step into. francine: thank you so much. anne applebaum of johns hopkins. this is bloomberg. ♪
negative about the prospect of future inflation. >> the problem is when you support markets, you are not letting markets do their work. the question is when do you allow that to act. >> the economy antivirus have to coexist. we can't choose one or the other. >> this is "bloomberg tom keenece" with jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. with tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, alongside lisa abramowicz. vix 10 big figures in the led by thatak, shock fed announcement.
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