tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 21, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
york, 6:00 p.m. in london, and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. another round of stimulus negotiations. steven mnuchin is on capitol hill to begin legislative talks with both parties. the white house and congress only about 10 days to come up with another government before economic relief dries up. glance into how much it has been helpful and can it to be needed across industries. group's adamrmr portnoy. they have properties ranging from hotels to gas stations. coca-cola says it will get better from here. their earnings report shows incremental improvement in sales. let's take a quick check on the markets. the dow nice balance in in particular, bowling among those stocks reaping some of the
rewards. all indices are higher in terms of the s&p and dow. the nasdaq has turned lower in the last 30 minutes. vix at 24. the euro continues to drive higher. 1.1518. strength after they managed to pass some grants and low-interest loans to aid everybody. of crude oil, summer travel season is in full swing as coronavirus cases pop up in cities across the country. many are rethinking a potential comeback in the hotel and leisure sectors. adam portnoy, is ceo of rmr group. us,last time you were with it was toward the beginning of the outbreak in the northeast, at least the beginning of what
we knew the outbreak would be serious. you were collecting commercial rents at a rate back then that surprised you. beet been instance -- i since? time wence the last talked, in terms of economic activity in our portfolio, we have over 2000 properties across the u.s. we touch every type of commercial real estate sector. as a result, we have a really good sense of what is going on in the economy on a daily basis. in the northeast, things have gotten a lot that are. -- better. the rest of the country in may and june was really trending better, or less bad, than the northeast. even as we get into july, the northeast continues to see, from our perspective -- looking and
hotels -- aregas, continuing to get better. whereas the rest of the country has really leveled off. it has sort of stalled. since june into july, and that corresponds, in my mind, to the rise of coronavirus infections in the south and west. vonnie: can you give me figures on how much rent you are collecting percentagewise? also about hotel occupancy in the northeast, who is actually renting the rooms out? adam: from a rent collection nationwide, we have had a strong portfolio. deferralsly granted for about 1.2% of our annualized rent.
april was probably the worst around 45% collections. we are running well into the 70's. we will see how july ends up coming but i think we will be in pretty good shape. if i had to guess, on the retail side is what i'm talking about, there could be somewhere between 5% and 10% retail rents that may not make it. that is the way we look at our portfolio today. overall in terms of our office, industrial portfolio, we have had 99% collection rates, which is strong. in terms of hotels, what we are seeing across the board, is is not too different from what people in other industries are talking about. those that drive too leisure locations are doing better on the weekends, having pretty good
occupancy over the weekends. it is really the business traveler that has disappeared from the market. of course, the lions share of typical hotel occupancy throughout the year. that has what has been pulled back. if you think about hotels more generally, it feels like there has been a change in sentiment around hotels, the recovery there over the last few weeks. vonnie: as in they will not all recover? are you looking at your portfolio of hotels and wondering what to do with them? may be changing them into another kind of purpose use? adam: great question. anyone who owns a large portfolio of hotels will have to think about long-term, do all of those hotels stay hotels? shakeouthere will be a
in the hotel industry. view may characterize it as maybe we have been over-hoteled. i think there will be some permanent reduction in business travel as a result of the pandemic. once this is behind us, i don't think we are back at 100% of the business travel we had, whether a 5% reduction or 20% reduction. that will be a meaningful impact on the hotel industry. so, yes, we are already thinking about things from a long-term evaluating doesn't make sense that all of these locations stay hotels long-term? the logical thing for some of these locations, given what a hotel is, could be multifamily or something else. i don't think it will be the majority of the portfolio, but
it could be a sizable piece of it in the future. .onnie: gas stations we could have a whole conversation on hotels. i do want to ask about what you are seeing at service stations. they are possibly a leading indicator for us. as i said earlier, that is really the best indicator of economic activity that we have observed in our businesses over the years, what is going on with gasoline sales. have seen a steady improvement in gasoline sales across the country with the northeast lacking the rest of the country in that study improvement. in july, the northeast continue to see steady improvement in gasoline sales whereas the rest of the country sort of leveled off. it feels to me that we are going to level off between 10% and 15%
below last year as maybe the new norm in this environment. that feels really will level off, 10 to 15% reduction over the year. vonnie: do you anticipate any more help in the industries that you are involved in from the federal government? adam: i think there could be some help directed toward the hospitality and leisure sector. i think the biggest thing congress can likely do is pass some sort of extension of unemployment benefits of some sort. the other thing that would be mind, forpful, in my some of our hardest hit industries, is it the congress and president could come up with a way to incentivize consumers to spend money in some of those harder hit industries, like having a hotel stay, going to a
restaurant. if there was a way to create taxes or incentives for people to spend in those hard-hit industries. i do point out for every industry that has been hard hit, other industries are doing quite well. we have a large industrial portfolio that is doing well. life sciencege portfolio of buildings that is doing well. those are over 6 million. for every part of the economy that is not doing well, there are parts that are doing well. the good news about rmr, we talked all of those parts. vonnie: an interesting headline today, joe biden out with part of his economic plan, and he bys he will finance it basically taxing real estate investors with incomes of more than $400,000. what are your thoughts on that? too, thisst saw that,
morning and was thinking about it. real estate owners and operators did quite well in the tax reform act that was passed a couple years ago. i am not surprised that joe biden has decided that that is an area he wants to go after four possible additional revenues. i don't believe as a general matter as you tax more you reduce incentives to put capital to work. people do react to tax policy. in the middle of a recession, deep, ioks to be pretty think the last thing you want to this incentivizing businesses from making decisions. in my view, that is what higher taxes does. we will see. vonnie: thank you for joining us, adam portnoy, rmr group ceo and cofounder.
now let's get the latest first word news with mark crumpton. mark: the centers for disease control and prevention says the coronavirus outbreak in the u.s. may be much worse than has been reported. they estimate today that true covid-19 cases are more than 10 times higher than reported cases in most u.s. regions from late march to early may. the findings suggest many people who did not show symptoms or seek medical care may have kept the virus in circulation. hong kong is facing its worst coronavirus at dixons the pandemic began. the city is unprepared for the surge. unlike in japan and in the u.s., where mostly young people are becoming infected, hong kong's is affecting older patients than before, raising the likelihood of more cases turning critical. the government is bracing to boost testing and hospitalization facilities. european union leaders have
agreed on a it hundred $60 billion plan to rescue economies hit hard by the coronavirus. first fort around a the block, hundreds of billions of dollars of common debt. the emergency fund is almost equally split between grants and low-interest loans. italy is likely to be the biggest beneficiary, the original european epicenter of the pandemic. a panel of british lawmakers --id they looked a report says it is astonishing that no one tried to protect the democratic process. lawmakers called for a full inquiry. the government dismissed the findings. russia denies interfering in any country's elections. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. some headlines from capitol hill. steven mnuchin says he is still in discussions on the payroll tax and that the country most than what we need on relief, no more than that. he says the group is making progress and wants to finish by the end of july. that is when most of the benefits run out. also when congress leaves. time for our stock of the hour. coca-cola adding some fizz to a flat quarter. ke did come up above expectations but they were jumping over a low bar.
earnings per share of $.42, came in two cents higher than the analyst estimate. still down 32% year on year. the top line did come up a bit short, revenue has been hit hard by the fact that movie theaters, stadiums, amusement parks are closed. restaurants are open and limited capacity. that weighs on those critical away from home sales. the good news is that revenue shortfall was made up for in cost-cutting efforts, spending less on marketing, for example. that improved margins. the company signaling that they think the bottom has been put in. fell 25%se unit volume year on year on april but only 10% in june, single digits in july. that improvement is a positive. the resurgence of virus cases we are seeing across the u.s., some restrictions being reimposed, that is a lot of
uncertainty still ahead. vonnie: any guidance for the full year? kailey: they say they could not give any accurately at this white. the only thing they are guiding is the negative fx hit. they expect full net revenue to reflect a 3% currency headwinds. executives taking a cautious note, saying they think the economic recovery could take another three years. the company was highlighting the fact that they have a strong liquidity position and is not changing their capital allocation lands, including growing the dividend, which is good news for investors. they have been hovering in a 3% to 4% range over the past decade. wrote that dividend is now safer. vonnie: thank you. still ahead, our conversation with matthew harrison, morgan stanley's head of biotech
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. more companies are moving through the stages of vaccine trials. joining us now is matthew harrison, morgan stanley's head of biotechnology research. produces a daily update that leaves nothing unseen. thank you for taking time with us today. as part of your daily up eight, you keep track of reproduction rates, testing times, where are we on those metrics right now? right now, the u.s. has an doubling time of about 40 days. states were the spread is quite low have a doubling time north of 100.
many of the countries that have their epidemic control have rates that are much higher. in terms of the reproduction rate, the u.s. is right around -1. anything above that points to a growing spread as we enter the fall. vonnie: that is a little bit creepy when you think about it. what is the outlook for your team when it comes to testing, vaccines? how many are you looking at, given that most leaders in the space think it will be a year before we have anything wonderful? , over therom vaccines course of the last three weeks, we have had some encouraging developments. we now have three companies that have presented phase one results that have demonstrated they can produce neutralizing antibodies. that is the antibody that would kill the virus when it got into
someone that are at or above the rates of neutralizing titers from patients that have recovered from the virus. your immune system has two sides. one produces antibodies, the other side produces t cells. there has been a t cell response across the vaccines, varied between them but you seem to be engaging both sides of the immune system. initial data is favorable. most of those three companies will start phase three studies in july or early august. our base case is that by the middle of november we will have a result that determines whether or not that vaccine is actually protected against symptomatic infection against covid-19. vonnie: why should we be watching something called the cellular arm? there is a debate out there about what is most important. if you look at some recovered
sars patients, they lost their antibody response but maintained their cellular response for upwards of a decade. that is one criteria which i think people are interested around, durability. the second question is, when the virus gets in your body, neutralizing antibodies can stop it from infecting you. but if you are infected, you have to engage your immune system to engage the t cells to stop the virus from spreading. vonnie: among the companies you , are there ones that look like they may be onto something that will be profitable? every company from moderna to pfizer are all pretty early on in trials. even if theys,
don't give us the golden at, let's say, will be something that people want to buy? matthew: of the vaccine producers, i only cover moderna. we are positive on them. they have a vaccine that has so far ticked all the appropriate boxes. we continue to be encouraged by their results. vonnie: flu season is coming up and there have been warnings about how this will add to the trouble. he case? get flu shots,to bonding by the rules of they are already. will it be a bad flu season? matthew: it is open for debate. on the one hand, if people are have significant social distancing, are being careful, you would expect to see a lower rate of flu transmission.
if you look at some of the data in the asian countries early on in the pandemic, the rates of dramatically as soon as covid-19 started to spread. the flip side coming in the u.s., we are seeing significant spread of covid-19 right now. differencegnificant in how people are wearing masks or not wearing masks. as we get into the fall, it will depend on what is happening. there is a possibility that some of the measures to protect against covid-19 could protect against the flu as well. vonnie: as you see cases rising what is youruntry, biggest fear? matthew: i think my biggest concern is that we will enter the fall with a rising or very high number of cases, and that will create a situation where
hospital capacity naturally falls as you enter into the fall, given the other seasonal viruses that cause people to go to the hospital. strain on put extra capacity, cause a more significant issue for hospitals. vonnie: your daily update is really phenomenal. join us again soon, please. that is matthew harrison, head of morgan stanley's biotech research. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back.
put down unrest. on twitter, she said she would .ot "allow it i will do everything in my power to stop it." president trump says he wants more federal officers to be sent to different cities following the dispatch of homeland security personnel to portland, oregon to protect federal property. the justice department is accusing to chinese hackers of working for the chinese government to steal hundreds of millions of dollars in trade secrets including coronavirus research from companies in -- countries -- companies and 11 nations. china is providing a safe haven for criminal hackers who, as in this case, are hacking in part for their own personal gain, but willing to help the state, and on call to do so. prosecutors say the men
have been carrying out attacks for a decade. in eastern china, breached levees trapped more than 10 as flooding worsens across much of the country. floods rose as high as 10 feet in some areas. heavy rain is expected to continue for several more days. at least 141 people have died or gone missing in floods since the beginning of june. more than 150,000 homes have been damaged. president trump's former lawyers says officials sent him back to prison to prevent him from finishing a book that presents him as a racist. michael cohen is asking a judge to allow him to serve the remainder of his sentence in home could i met. the trump administration has tried to prevent two books from being published recently, one by national security advisor john bolton, and another by the president's niece. global news 24 hours a day,
on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. welcome to bloomberg markets. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn in new york. we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. u.s. stocks are higher for the most part as a pullback in tech comes one day after the nasdaq 100 posted a record. what to expect as the group kicks off earnings. reaching a stimulus deal. makingmnuchin says he is lots of progress and hopes to have a deal by the end of the month.
and congressse have 10 days to come up with an agreement before the economic relief passed earlier this year draws up. the race for a coronavirus vaccine continues to heat up among biotech players. we will speak to the aaron gal on who is leading the search -- surge. amanda: we are seeing markets a little bit mixed today. off of theircoming highs from yesterday, the nasdaq 100 hitting its all-time high. vaccines front and center. we had that oxford-based vaccine at its name to the list of those getting closer to an offering. canada, we got that retail sales number that suggests heads-up the demand is alive and well. the nasdaq 100 selling off a little bit. the leaders are energy and financials today.
maybe a bit of rotation out of some of the leaders in the market in the last few months. we want real deeper into that. with the nasdaq 100 hitting the record and now backing off, we will also hear from big tech and their earnings, what do they hold in store? scarlet fu went looking for any potential problems ahead. against the biggest not big tech, their outsized gains leave little room for mrs.. investors piling in may be quick to flee, especially if the virus optimism or an improving economy leads to other sectors. for apple, the pandemic may delay the iphone 12 and the the company unwilling to give a sales forecast this quarter. amazon revenue likely grew 25% but it is also spending a lot. how much will it spend to keep its delivery network running ?moothly
microsoft is benefiting from a ship to the crowd but is it giving up revenue by a loan contracts?on if the economy stumbles further, advertising budgets could disappear, hitting facebook and alphabet. when you have only gone up, it doesn't take a lot to knock you down a peg. amanda: as we wait for all of those earnings and questions of valuations, we are watching the stocks closely. securityachter is a analyst for wedbush. want to start with a question as we see the nasdaq 100 hitting that record of backing off. are you waiting for rotation out of this group because they have shown such leadership, or is there reason to stick with them? michael: they are grouped together and there is not much they have in common. amazon has nothing to do with alphabet.
microsoft has nothing to do with apple. they are lumped together because they are each worth a trillion dollars. the truth is, amazon will continue to drive. scarlet pointed out the right question, are they spending more than we expect? they are definitely generating revenues at a faster clip than we thought prior. that one of let-up as long as we have shelter in place as the law. the better question -- scarlet hit on this perfectly --what happens to advertising? these dreams of an economic rebound seem to overlook the fact that there is double-digit unemployment. if people are not working, they are not spending. if they are not spending, advertisers have to cut budgets and not spend as much to reach them. yes, facebook and out of that depend on ad revenue. it consumption is down, revenue will be down. the question is do we see a shift from conventional markets,
commercial broadcast, television, billboards and radio, toward digital advertising? probably. snap will be our first indicator cpm's are down. snap has double-digit user growth and probably impression growth. facebook and alphabet don't have double-digit user growth, so they will be more of a pure play on the advertising environment. to your point, we should separate them into their categories. those thatocused on are dependent on growing their advertising base, growing the ad dollar, is snap the beginning of what will be a difficult quarter for the group? snap will give us a signal based on their cpm's. we see that they dropped about
40% in march and then rebounded only about 15% in april, may, june. consensus is probably pretty close on snap. users 20%en growing year-over-year, revenue of 11%. i am really curious to see if tiktok cut into the user growth. it may have. those users are coming from somewhere. they have a pretty heavy overlap with the core addressable market for snap. the big signal is when alphabet reports. if revenues are down sequentially, that will be a problem for all of the fang stocks. vonnie: are we do another round of innovation? it seems like it's been a while since any of these companies have come up a something to capture imagination. michael: i don't know what we consider innovation.
snap as a service is purely innovative. facebook is investing and virtual reality. pretty innovative. netflix inventing streaming years, pretty innovative. we have seen a lot. i think the big seachange is a shift from conventional cable television subscription to over-the-top subscription. you are seeing all of these guys dabble in it. youtube read, amazon talking about offering the same thing. that is a big market. not innovation as much as necessity. amazon is going after grocery. that is an $800 billion addressable market. they don't have to capture much share, and they are minting money. that is happening if you are involved in covid. the real challenge is to get grocery delivery to be fast,
convince consumers that the products are fresh. i think they've been doing that during covid. amanda: you started with the point that as a group, it could tooreated a little homogeneously. worry that there will be a selloff as a group indiscriminately? michael: they tend to be moving together as a group. i cover about a dozen stocks that benefit from shelter in place. they all seem to move up and down as a group. so, yes, of course. the real problem will be when we actually reach the realization that the consumer is in trouble. in the u.s., we are running out s at the month end. we are running out of unemployment at month's end.
i don't think the congress has the institutional will to pass directly for consumers. i think you'll see consumers hurting badly. you will see massive commercial real estate defaults. movie theaters are not paying rent, restaurants are not paying rent. what happens after ppp loans are done? you will see defaults ripple through the financial system. that is when the market will realize maybe it is overvalued. so the stocks that moved up the most will come down. i think they will all be hammered in the next couple of months. fundamentally, amazon is still a great value. they are gaining share and will maintain that share. there are a few standouts, that is one of them. vonnie: michael pachter, always fascinating. our thanks to you. coming up, stimulus talks underway with treasury secretary
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. a landmark stimulus package worth 750 billion euro aims to help european member states mitigate the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus. the european commissioner for economic affairs talks about the details with our own francine lacqua. deal, itthe right shows that we have divisions, but europe is stronger than our divisions. unprecedented will
happen in the next two or three years. the european commission will raise hundreds of billions of ands in the market distribute them in grants and loans to member states. is really something changing, the perspective of our solidarity in the union. >> when will countries actually see disbursement from the fund? theountries that will reach higher level of disbursement will be the more affected countries. timing will be next year. time for final approval from national parliament, and we need time to raise in the markets this amount of money, and we need to have plans from member states that should be
coordinated toward our strategic priorities. we cannot spend this huge amount without having a more competitive, more sustainable european economy. will beecovery fund financed by 750 billion euros in jointly issued bonds. is this the first step toward a safe euro asset? the decision that was taken today, honestly. indeed, today, several member states stressed the fact that tos is extraordinary, linked the emergency we are facing. we have to stick to this decision. in the future, if this solidarity will work, if we have good results from this comment issuing in the markets, i think
this will be an experience to be used also from the union in the future. but that is not a decision we are taking today. vonnie: the commissioner for eu economic affairs. steven mnuchin and nancy pelosi on capitol hill today negotiating the next virus release plan. the secretary saying she is making progress and was to finish by the end of july. we are joined by our congressional reporter. of whether question he wants to. you he does or people run out of money. >> the administration, congress is running up against a hard deadline at the end of the month. there are several things they have to work out between now and next week. we have seen them do this quickly. earlier this year with the cares package, $2 trillion package that was aimed at small businesses, consumers.
we know that they can work this haveof thing out, but they given themselves not a lot of wiggle room. they have two weeks to do this and there are still a lot of things that need to be worked out. amanda: what are some of those sticking points? what the trump administration wants to do, a big priority for the president is this payroll tax holiday. that is not very happy -- popular on capitol hill, even in members of the president's own party. getting toat as not the workers that need it the most, those unemployed. they want to do direct stimulus payments, checks again. mcconnell talking about that this morning when he opened the senate for business, he said that was something they want to do.
they also want to do the payroll protection program, they want to get that going again. there will be some negotiations on unemployment insurance, whether that will be 100% of what somebody is making, or maybe a little of it more, as it was in the cares act. that will be a sticking point. then liability protection. a big priority for senator mcconnell, he says the pack is that he will put together will have those protections. the house package that speaker pelosi is working on does not, at least to the extent that senator mcconnell wants. those are some of the points that need to be worked out. amanda: more than a few. appreciate it, dan flatley, our congressional reporter. enthusiasm for the hopes for a vaccine, most recently the one being developed in oxford. we are checking in with bernstein' after this.
amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. alongside vonnie quinn in new york. we are seeing new optimism for the vaccines being developed, this one by oxford and astrazeneca partnering. the question is how much optimism should we have in any of the vaccines making their way toward the consumer markets? ronny gal with sanford bernstein is with us now. it looks like a promising development out of oxford. give me your headline on what we are hearing, why it matters. ronny: they are using a novel technology, injecting patients with the rna, a piece of the virus, that will hopefully
stimulate patient immunity. we are seeing pretty good results. we are seeing titers in line with patients that we are seeing recovered. essentially all of the patients are responding in the trial. overall, pretty encouraging. some are showing a good activation of t cells. we are seeing things from multiple companies and this approach is likely to generate a working vaccine. and progress toward the goals of the company's but is it what people need? do we know what people need yet? ronny: we need a vaccine that will work for a decent amount of time, that is safe, that works
in the elderly and not just a healthy population. it takes time to generate this kind of candidate. what we are seeing now are the smoke signs before the fire. we are seeing measurements of the blood reaction to the vaccine. this is not the same of having 1000 people out there and seeing who benefits. what we have here is the early data. if you look at what we have in hand, it is the best that we could have had at this point. is there anything about any of this -- because this is a new type of vaccine and the manyy, unlike others that we have had decades of experience with -- is
anything that people will question, in terms of safety? will people feel safe taking these? ronny: that is a good question. looks at the data and says it is safe, most people will feel reasonably good about taking them. for influenza or other uses, but we may see a risk of contracting the virus and then you'll see a number of patients that have been exposed to the virus for the short-term. i think most patients would feel good about it. my parents, who are not in the best of their health, in their 70's, i would recommend them to take the virus. children, who are lower risk
and quite healthy, i'm not sure yet it depends on the data we generate. vonnie: thank you for the update, ronny gal. former u.s. vice president al gore is speaking right now. sustainable capital is part of the theme. it is part of the green is now event. if you want to watch that, we o part ofon the live g the terminal. we will see you tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg markets the close. taylor: i'm taylor riggs. caroline: eu leaders with a landmark deal to help spur the recession because of the coronavirus. u.s., fresh speculation that congress could with on a new relief package, sending stocks for the third day but megan cap tech shares the ahead of key earnings before snap. president trump's current virtual pick to pick the reserve board clearing a hurdle. we will to talking about the hurdle when that happens. first, let's check in on those markets because technology out of favor today. 100on added more than billion dollars to its overall market capitalization in one day. the
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