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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  August 16, 2020 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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haidi: good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories, trade talks on hold. the u.s. and china postpone a review of phase one and have no timeline for a meeting. president trump warns he is looking at other companies, including alibaba. coronavirus numbers continue to rise with a new resurgence in
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south korea. infections slow in japan, but young adults becoming more vulnerable. do infections in new zealand itsend -- weaken reputation as a covid-19 beater. the prime minister is delaying the election. down: that is weighing matters in new zealand, but let's look at u.s. futures. uncertainty continues to plague markets as we kick off this new session in asia. uncertainty when it comes to trade with the phase one meetings being postponed indefinitely. we are also getting an indefinite stalemate when it comes to stimulus talks, as well as uncertainty over the future of mail-in voting and usps. theve futures trading on s&p, positive 5.1%. the nikkei 225 up by about .25%.
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we are continuing to watch price action on the topics, the world's best performing index in august as we continue to see the encouraging recovery in industrials and financials. the japanese economy sent to crater by a record in the latest quarter. we are getting gdp numbers later today. in new zealand, back to one of the top stories with the pushing back of the september election by another four weeks, it is another reason for ultralow kiwi rates. we are seeing an upside, about .8%, when it comes to trading in the equity session. that certainty giving a bit of upside to the kiwi dollar, which is the worst performer in g10, down 3% against the greenback this year. we have oil continuing to advance, up by .6%. brent advancing ahead of this week's opec meeting. we have had recent signals that
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supply and demand are starting to return to some kind of balance. shery: china and the u.s. have postponed indefinitely trade talks that were do to happen over the weekend. no official reason has been given. stephen engle joins us from hong kong. we don't have a specific reason here, but it is not hard to imagine, given the issues between these two countries. stephen: as we got to friday, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion given all the other issues on the back burner and front burner as well. trade might be the easiest thing to talk about. however, we heard reports the chinese wanted to get the issues of we chat and tiktok, those bands by trump in the united states, on the agenda of the video conference talks that were scheduled with robert lighthizer and steve mnuchin. the talks really never made it to any official public calendar
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in washington, d.c. or beijing. it just never really happened and there is no timetable for that to happen again. originally it was supposed to be a six month checkup on how the trade deal was going. that has also had some hiccups because of the coronavirus. the pledges the chinese have made for agricultural purchases have not necessarily met pledge numbers. there is not a lot of progress to talk about, but there is a lot of contentious issues. maybe best to postpone it. larry kudlow is the economic advisor to donald trump. he did reiterate on thursday that the trade deal was going well, his words, after on tuesday donald trump had indicated that may be phase one trade deal is not a big priority because things have changed in the relationship between china and the united states over 2020. latestin terms of the
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frictions we are seeing, this deal for taiwan is going to play into another layer of bilateral tensions between washington and beijing. stephen: that's right. this is a formalization of a deal announced in august for 66 newest generation f-16 fighting falcon fighter jets -- that's an alliteration -- that has rankled beijing. in august the ministry of foreign affairs said u.s. arms sales to taiwan violate the one china principle. f-16ss the first time the have been sold to taiwan since 1992. it is a $62 billion deal. again, it is something beijing will be very upset over, as they always are when the u.s. sells military hardware to taiwan. feathers inruffled
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addition to everything else. stephen engle with the latest. we will get more perspective on china-u.s. relations ahead with a former attorney at the office of the u.s. trade represented a. -- representative. still ahead, the outlook japan with second-quarter gdp data due out this hour. we will be speaking to a bank of america global researcher. plus, the new zealand election. the prime minister is delaying the vote by four weeks. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: breaking news out of southbank as the company right now responding to a media report saying softbank is adding $1.1 billion to its we work commitment. they are saying its commitment
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to purchase wework notes are not additional, but the $1.1 billion commitment was based on an october 2019 agreement. let's turn to karina mitchell for the first word headlines. karina: new zealand prime minister jacinda ardern is delaying the upcoming general election, saying it is vital the vote be safe amid a resurgence in coronavirus infections. she is proposing a four week delay. the prime minister says it is important the election can be held in a well organized manner and the rise in cases makes that difficult. >> i have decided to move the election by four weeks to the 17th of october. at the end of last week i was advised that this date is achievable and presents no greater risk than had we retained the status quo. karina: meanwhile the u.k. is being warned to million jobs could be under threat if the
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government ends its virus support program to early. millions of workers will still rely on cash help when the plan winds up october. the majority of them would survive if help extends into the new year. the u.k. saw its biggest fall in employment since 2009 with more jobs expected to go. germany may extend job saving virus subsidies the 24 months, saying it would cost an extra $12 billion. the government introduced payments to support unemployment. the finance minister says the new proposal would double that timeframe with the number of short time workers in germany and the -- in germany significantly higher than 10 years ago. india will spend $1.5 billion to boost its economy. narendra modi gave a speech to salute the government's performance in containing the outbreak and to say india can be reliant as a global supply chain hub.
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india has more than 2.5 million confirmed infections and the imf easy economy contracting by more than 4% to a historic low. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mitchell. this is bloomberg. another busy week of economic data from asia shaping up. kicking off this hour, what is expected to be a record contraction in japan second-quarter gdp. thailand is expected to post a double-digit decline. we are joined by sian fenner. it is hard to find a way around saying this, but we are continuing to see economies held ransom by what happens with the virus. the prospects for recovery in japan very much depend on what happens next with covid-19. sian: i think you are right. we have already seen the monthly
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data putting a sharp contraction in the gdp. a lot of that is based on household spending. that accounts for nearly 60% of gdp. , even though they are harder than other countries, will see that contract sharply. it is the impact of lingering virus concerns on confidence, concerns over employment. that will weigh on spending and is a risk for any recovery we are expecting in japan. haidi: in terms of broader asian economies, to what extent can we expect to see a meaningful recovery before borders can reopen and we see a resumption of travel? sian: i think resumption of travel is a fair way off. we have seen indonesia and thailand saying we cannot expect anything until at least 2021. it is going to be important particularly for those from more
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tourist dependent economies, such as thailand, the philippines, even vietnam. it will matter in terms of the pace of recovery, how well they are containing the virus and are able to ease restrictions. we are seeing that bearing significantly across economies, with countries such as china, south korea, taiwan, and thailand beating economies on the other extreme, such as indonesia, philippines, and india, which with their high outbreaks does mean they are going to lag any kind of recovery expected in the second half. haidi: on indonesia, are you expecting another rate cut this week? we have seen cuts in june and july already. sian: we are still looking for another 25 basis point cut. we think the weakness of the economy warrants this. thereafter, we are looking for a new record low for a prolonged
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period. for onetill looking more rate cut. shery: talking about monetary policy, we are expecting the loan prime rate to come through on thursday from the pboc. what are you expecting and what's the risk of the pboc acting too slowly when it comes to monetary policy? sian: we are looking for no change. we have become more dovish in outlook for the pboc. there is two reasons. one, we saw the gdp came in stronger than expected. july figures were quite strong. the latest monetary report did point they were starting to be concerned about macro leverage and the impact that will have on longer-term increases in debt. they have shown they want to rein it in. we are looking that credit growth continues to add higher, which will be supported by the infrastructure.
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it will be important that they continue to do this. the prospect for the rate cuts at this point is limited. all, the first in, first out story is playing well for china. are they relying on the fact they have such a robust domestic market to be able to draw out this recovery? sian: yes in one way. we have seen exports have outperformed expectations. part of that is because they were able to reopen, the impact was more felt in q1. the government has been supportive of the export sector. we do see exports continuing to be an important factor driving industrial production. what we are hoping to see more in the second half is seeing household spending starting to pick up. we think it will. it has been lagging. we think it will as we see industrial sentiment improve. we should see household spending
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become a bit more of a driver going forward. fenner joining us out of singapore as we await japanese gdp kicking off the data week in asia. we are getting breaking news. the new zealand treasury has postponed its pre-election economic and fiscal update. this follows the prime minister's announcement she would be pushing back the date of the general election by another four weeks, given the latest spike in coronavirus cases and the renewed lockdown in auckland. we are seeing downside pressure now when it comes to the kiwi dollar, the worst performer within the g10, as well as pressure on kiwi role rates as well. this comes after the rbnz expanded monetary policy support and is mulling the idea of negative rates as well as further moves on q. week. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia."
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: a quick check of business flash headlines. a top chinese developer has reported close to a profit of 2.7 billion, blaming the fall on covid-19 and promotions that offered discounts. net profit from its main operations is expected to be down 37% from a year ago, while net profit is forecast to have declined more than 45%. india's rc rci bank has raised the by a noninstitutional placement, joining indian lenders boosting funds as the pandemic threatens to push up bad loans. the bank made the offer between august 10 and 14. singapore's sovereign wealth fund gic picked up 11% of the offer.
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morgan stanley bought 7%. temasek holdings is the fifth-largest shareholder in blackrock after adding a 4% stake worth around $3.5 billion. temasek bought blackrock shares when pnc sold a $14 billion stake earlier this year. the companies have worked together in the past. talks are underway for a joint venture in china. shery: the house of representatives will return from recess early for hearings on the crisis of the u.s. postal service, where funding cuts threaten voting in november's election. ross cries knee has more details. we are expecting a vote on a usps bill, but how significant would that be without the backing of cigna -- of senate republicans or the white house? ros: anything democrats do in the house, where they have the majority, is basically signaling. nancy pelosi and her colleagues are signaling their concern about the changes happening to
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the post office. unless you get the senate involved, nothing may happen. nonetheless, pelosi is bringing house members back and they are expected to vote saturday on a bill coming out of the house oversight committee that basically says to the post office, don't make any changes before january, don't interfere with the election. that's the real methodology democrats are going after in this bill. biden it looks like joe will be going into the convention with some momentum. what are we expecting to hear and how is he placing in the polls? every day polls are out showing biden with a substantial lead nationwide and leading in many battleground states. we know that can change on a dime.
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it does seem like his campaign has got some momentum after picking, let harris as the running mate -- after picking kamala harris as the running mate. it is an interesting convention. there is no bells and whistles, nobody going to milwaukee to stand around in an arena. it is basically a political convention being held by zoom. typically you would expect either party to get a bounce coming out of the convention. it is unclear if that will happen for the democrats this week. we did see some polling this mostthat suggests democrats want biden and the democrats to have a positive convention and focus on what they can do for the country, rather than tearing down trump. at the same time, it seems like people voting for biden are less enthusiastic about him and more enthusiastic about voting against trump. an interesting dynamic. we will see how it goes this
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week. shery: washington editor ros krasny there. domestic coverage of the democratic convention this week. bloomberg tv and radio will be simulcasting the specials beginning 10:00 p.m. tuesday in hong kong, 10:00 a.m. monday in new york. haidi: one longtime investor is warning the relentless rally in the stock market could end if joe biden wins. mark nova gratz told us he thinks a biden-harris ticket may not be great for the market. the democrats are going to be tougher on wall street in terms of the tax plan. you are going to raise corporate taxes, personal income taxes, and most importantly, the capital gains tax. harris, asden and much as it is going to be great for the country, is not going to be great for the market. >> it is super interesting
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because, aside from taxation, the vice presidential pick does not do much by way of financial policy. people are watching closely the treasury picked, the fec chair, should they get elected. what are your expectations of the moves they would make to regulate this industry in a different way? >> the biden camp and the people i have spoke to our quite centrist and, to be fair, more conservative than the trump camp. they are fiscal conservatives in that they know you cannot keep spending forever without having some offset. i think you are going to see tax hikes on the wealthy to find some programs. the country's scio on distribution of income has gotten as wide as it has been ever, when you have jeff bezos work $180 billion and the average american not doing as well, the democrats feel it is
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time for change. i think most people agree with that. it is a question of how it is done, if it is done fairly and transparently. that has been the problem in many tax regimes, no one feels they have been fair and transparent. >> are markets prepared for that , pricing in higher capital gains tax, higher taxes and general? >> i don't think so. we are in a liquidity driven frenzy. i called it a rational exuberance. tesla stock is up because they announced a five to one stock split. that in some ways makes zero sense. it makes sense in this environment because everything is trading like big pine -- like bitcoin in 2017, a speculative frenzy. bubbles normally end with policy response. usually it is fed action. it could be action on raising taxes that could end this broth. amazon is an amazing company,
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doing amazing through probate, but it is trading on 100 times its earnings. i think we are in bubble territory and i think the election might be what ends up stopping it for a while. >> you mentioned a few volatile stocks, tesla for one, bitcoin for another. i want to go there with you on bitcoin. is it an appropriate value in these volatile times? >> i think it is. i think bitcoin crossed the rubicon the last year for being something that is a baby to something people think -- that is a maybe to something people think is. you have banks looking into how they get involved. it is literally a downhill race from here as opposed to uphill. the first four years of my existence in the crypto space, i was pushing the ball uphill. it feels like it is rolling downhill all of a sudden. i like bitcoin better than gold
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because bitcoin has been harder to buy. capas a $200 billion market while gold has over $10 trillion. >> where do you think gold should be ending up by the end of the year? >> those are hard predictions. we have taken out the old high. could it be 2500 to 3000? it could be. once you take out old highs, it is hard to figure out where they end. i don't think anything changes between now and year-end in terms of the profligacy of the fiscal side and the fed printing more and more money. i think the fed is going to go more dovish in this next meeting. that could be the next juice that accelerates gold and bitcoin. there.mike nova gratz next, new zealand postpones its elections by four weeks as the nation battles its worst
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coronavirus outbreak in over three months. we have the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪ experience the ultimate sports hub.
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karina: you are watching daybreak asia. the u.s. and china have no new date in line for a phase one trade deal review after postponing talks. the white house says it will remain on course -- however president trump threatens to raise tensions saying he is looking into banning other chinese companies from the u.s., having confirmed in order for tiktok to sell its american operations. president trump may be set for a dramatic u-turn saying he is considering a potential pardon for edward student. he has repeatedly called him a spy should said the
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be executed but he is looking at a pardon. critics accuse him of tribute -- treason for everything -- revealing information about seizure of data. california is bracing for more power blackouts after as many as 2 million residents were left in the dark in the first rolling outages since the 2001 energy crisis. the grid operators said it could last as my as four days. power shortages come with a heat wave to hit the state through the middle of next week. 43 degrees celsius. an antigovernment protest ran into the night in bangkok with numbers suggesting anger could be more than just college campuses. demonstrators defied police warnings. there are no reliable figures but witnesses say it was one of the largest protests in years. organizers are demanding new elections, new constitution and an end of intimidation to
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government critics. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. new zealand is battling its first coronavirus outbreak in more than three months which has forced the prime minister to postpone the general election by four weeks. >> i have decided to move the weeks to theour 17th of october. at the end of last week i was advised the state is achievable and presents no greater risks than had we retained the status quo. tracy let's get more from in wellington. what were the options? why did she go with october 17 she saidt -- given delaying does not create any more certainty? lockdown is not
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going to end until august 26, which was three weeks out from the scheduled election date. realistically they could not conduct a campaign with that sort of lockdown in place. the hand was forced. the other option was extending to november 21 i think was the final date. as she said in her remarks this morning, there is no guarantee staythe disruption won't in place for several months. she wanted to have certainty and breathing time for voters so they could feel safe when they go to the polls. shery: what happens if the outbreak gets worse? how bad is it right now? >> the prime minister said she won't change his decision.
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there is flexibility in the electoral commission here in new zealand. they can make their own choice if they feel they can't conduct a safe election. she sounds very optimistic, but the state will proceed on october. there is a reasonable amount of optimism that the cluster is now 49 cases. it is under control as much as any thing can be under control through contact tracing. ast has to be watched, but she said, they expect the electoral commission rules otherwise. haidi: we have seen the new zealand treasury postponing the pre-election fiscal budget update. does this put further pressure for the rbnz to take policy
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given they had been waiting looking at the scenarios of going into negative rates? moment, thet the market was looking for that update to include details of the government bond issuance going forward. the reserve bank recently increased the scale of the easing program to $107 billion new zealand. that goes to fears of flexibility. at this stage any move to negative rates would be a story for 2021. haidi: how resilient has the economy been? there was a cautious sense of optimism that despite one of the harshest lockdowns in the world that economic activity was
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rebounding afterwards. >> that is true. the lead indicators from spending and the labor market were quite positive. but of course business confidence, consumer confidence, it has come off the immediate recovery from the lockdown and the government has had in place a number of support systems for business and most importantly a big weight subsidy. it was announced late last week that the rate subsidy will be extended but only for the time of the lockdown. probably until the end of this month. come off anddies then there is potential for impact for a secondary impact on employment incomes in spending. economists are cautious about where the economy is going.
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we know we have seen the worst certainly. shery: tracy withers with the latest. up next we will have the latest on the virus resurgence in south korea. the infections are linked to a church in seoul. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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shery: let's get you started with a check of how the markets are trading. ..s. futures are gaining .25% they closed mixed. reports showing the economic recovery is slowing down. the s&p 500 friday fluctuated between gains and losses. nikkei futures flat, but this coming after japanese stocks gained to the highest levels since february. talking about the topics -- topix being the best major performer so far in the world. we do have second-quarter gdp numbers for japan which will
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show the economy deeper into contraction territory. kiwi stocks gaining the most in three weeks. the prime minister delaying the weeksl election by four to october 17. wti crude is now above $45 a barrel level. we had two straight weeks of gains, signals that show consumption recovery was on the mend. south korea's warning of new mass coronavirus resurgence after reporting its new record since march. most of those cases are being linked to a church in seoul. jodi schneider has the latest. -- i have to say it looks familiar in terms of the clusters that are being seen. what are the authorities doing about it? does have ais feeling of remembering what
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happened in february and march in south korea which was a country with an early flareup and at that time had 5000 infections related to a religious sect. they became at that point the second worst hit by the virus, but the country has done a good of worldwide in terms testing and contact tracing, keeping numbers relatively low overall, even with the recent flareup of 15,000 cases and only remarkably 305 deaths. , thisncern this time recent flareup which recalls what had happened earlier, it is harder to contact trace and test individuals. that is the worry of officials, that this group could make it harder to test which could trigger a wider community transmission. they are taking steps to go to
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their strategy which is testing and tracing. they are going to charge the pastor of this church who violated self-quarantine rules of failing to cooperate with parishioners who needed testing. shery: concerns about what is happening in japan despite the fact we are seeing cases decline in tokyo. slipped toheir cases 260 yesterday, sunday down from 385 saturday. they had been having a flareup. the concern is the patients in their 20's are the biggest group of infections, 84% of new cases. followed by people in their 30's. earlier it had been older people. the worry is a could spread, something that the documentary bulletin government is continued to keep its alert at the highest level as they are worried about the infectious spread among all
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age groups. what about the situation in india? what is narendra modi promising? reporter: india is the country with the fourth-largest number of cases worldwide. spreading very rapidly there, and the big concern. the prime minister had said india has three covid-19 tech scenes under trial, and he will ensure a vaccine reaches every citizen who is paying tribute -- nationalnnounced a digital health mission to bolster india's health care system that is expected to include digitization of health records. canconcern is how quickly you come up with a reliable vaccine even though they have it under tests right now and how do you get it, every citizen in
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such a populous country? that is what he is promising as the country deals with this spread of the virus. all right, jodi schneider there with us. let's get you a click -- quick check of the latest business headlines. microsoft remains keen on buying tiktok's american operations and could make a bid for its british arm as well. microsoft could expand beyond the interests of canada and new zealand, citing an unidentified bank source. it is not clear if bite gets would sell the u.k. unit -- bytedance would sell the u.k. unit. hurdles asting legal people try to derail plans. ubs, deutsche bank and other creditors holding half $1 billion of urgent bonds are supporting a plan to reject baincapital and revive the struggling airline themselves
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papers in australia collapsed in april owing billions of dollars. there was a fast tracked sale to baincapital. $2 million amid strong demand with fidelity among the biggest participants. the company was in talks to raise $1 billion at a price of $270 a share which would have valued spacex at $440 billion. this would be their largest so far and comes after a successful iss mission. coming up next, japan second-quarter gdp data will be with us. expectations for record contraction. worker joinsrica us. we get her response next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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we are awaiting second-quarter gdp numbers out of japan. today's report is expected to show the economy slumping deeper into recession. let's bring in izumi devalier. she joins us now from tokyo. great to have you with us. we know the data can be very backward looking, so what will you be watching for? dataah, this was obviously that captures developments up
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until the end of june, but the point is going to be useful to confirm the size of the hit we experienced in the second quarter as a result of coronavirus. that will give us the starting point for the whole we will have to climb out of in terms of exports. it could set the stage for the recovery into the third quarter. we will be looking at the consumption numbers obviously. , there is uncertainty how that is going to be. we will be looking at all of those components. haidi: if you look at the stock market, the topics has been the best performer in the month of august globally. is there a sense that investors are are moving beyond the worst of the state of emergency? >> yeah, i think so. the disconnect, so-called disconnect between the stock markets and the real economy is
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not just something that has been talked about in japan but globally and with u.s. markets as well. part of it is a reflection of the fact the hardest hit businesses that were affected by this business are small, medium enterprises. there are reasons for the optimism and willingness of market for dissidents to look through the second quarter weakness. that is the unprecedented amount of stimulus that governments and central banks across the world have put in lace in response to this crisis. japan's response has not been aggressive as the u.s., but we have seen record stimulus and automatic stabilizers helped put a floor on the committee. i think there is a sense society is growing, getting used to this virus and finding ways to cope and continue on with activities despite these second waves. the worst case scenarios we
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imagined in march and april are no longer as big a concern. that is the only part of the constructive outlook. shery: we will continue to see this new wave of coronavirus infections. we have seen it spread across japan. the number in tokyo declining but affecting many of the young people. the numbers are finally out, second quarter gdp numbers with seasonally adjusted numbers of contraction, 7.8%. the preliminary numbers, bigger than estimated and deeper contraction than the previous month. we are talking about the three consecutive quarters of contraction in the japanese economy. when it comes to the annualized adjusted numbers, deeper than expected, contraction of 27.8%. this is perhaps the biggest and most -- the biggest contraction
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going back to 1955 for japan. 7%,nominal gdp contraction, private consumption, contraction of 8%. business spending down 1.5%. a smaller decline than expected. anything that stands out to you? the only number that did not miss estimates was business spending quarter on quarter. >> i think i am surprised at how precise the consensus estimates and our estimates were able to track this downturn. this is in line with expectations. i would not read too much about the gap because as we all know, the capex estimate is very provisional. it is subject a big revisions. i would look through that. another thing that stands out a
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little bit is i guess the resilience of inflation to some degree, which is reflected in the fact that nominal gdp contraction mirrors the real gdp contraction which is the deflater did not collapse. that is reflected in the firmness here. one factor here we should worry about looking into the next couple of quarters is the degree to which we get these pressures. cpi has held up and firms are not cutting prices that dramatically, but if we have weakness in spending, we will get downward pressure on selling prices, and that will add to the difficulties of corporate as they face downward pressure. that is one risk factor i would watch for going forward. haidi: what are the implications from this data release? stance of japan, their
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is clear. they demonstrated in june and in july they have done everything they can do to support the economy. they are focusing on corporate financing, loan provisions. their stance is while they are willing to extend and expand these programs, i don't think there is that much more they can or they are going to do to try to accelerate recovery. on the policy side, the bigger focus is on what kind of next step actions do we get on the fiscal policy side? the government has copious reserves to put in place for the demand side stimulus. the problem is the attempt with the go to inbound tourism campaign which has been derailed as a result of the second wave of the outbreak. any kind of potential fiscal
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action, it has to wait until the second wave subsides. with that likely in september, the focus will be on fiscal policy in the fall. haidi: how much of a devastating impact would it be if the olympics were to have to be postponed or canceled? in some ways we have digested that bad news. would come impact from decline in inbound tourists , but i don't think anyone expects the inbound recovery into her is in which is basically zero. there could have been potential effects, but the cold lake -- the public's views to the liv-ex are mixed. the olympics having to be canceled, that tells us an ugly picture of the global growth environment and the situation
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around the virus. we have other things to worry about in that situation. shery: will the japanese yen be a worry? i wonder how long this will last. >> yeah. we do have dollar-yen falling and ending the year around 103. i don't think the yen is as big a concern to policy makers, nor does it have the potential to jump around as much, because in terms of the monetary policy stance, central banks are in the same place having cut to zero monetarymplementing policies. there is a risk for small appreciation, the likes of which we have seen the past couple of months, but there is a strong floor around 100 because japanese institutional investors and pension funds have some runway to buy foreign assets.
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we think the dollar-yen will be stuck in a broad range, and i don't think it is going to be as bad a headache for policymakers. all right, izumi devalier. on daybreak asia we will get an interview with the four seasons hotel operations president. that is in half an hours time to talk about the impact of the pandemic on his business. the market opens in sydney, seoul and tokyo. we will look at a new trading week with dixon advisories. and-checking in on -- checking it, uncertainty given after the announcement of the general election being pushed out from september. we have the upside of over 1% with trading and kiwi stocks. there is weakness in the kiwi dollar and pressure on kiwi
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rates. looking at a downward pressure across the broader asia open. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,
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♪ shery: welcome to daybreak asia. i am shery anh haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. top stories, the phase one trade review has been postponed. there is no timeline for a new date. president trump is looking at other chinese companies including alibaba. oil advances ahead of the opec-plus meeting with supply and demand started to balance
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out. producers beginning to taper historic output curves. the rescue of virgin australia facing a new challenge. legal action against the plan for the collapsed airline's with the latest from sydney. japan, south korea and australia coming online. let's start with japan because we are seeing pressure with japanese markets. .4%, afteris falling we had second-quarter numbers plunging 20% on an annualized basis. this would take the economy deeper into contraction territory and recession. we are seeing most factors in the red in japan. difference a weekend makes because last week we had seen the nikkei rallying to the highest since february. it was led by the tech stocks. the topix was one of the
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best-performing major benchmarks in august. the japanese yen holding steady after the biggest decline in two months against the u.s. dollar. holding steady here. look at what the kospi is doing at the moment. we had seen a halt to the nine-day rally. right now losing more than 1%. we had seen the korean won falling from the five month high. this after we continue to see outbreak worsening the highest number for coronavirus cases since early march. we continue to watch these surges in coronavirus cases across asia. haidi: yeah. it was the renewed coronavirus outbreak in new zealand that has caused the political agenda to shift and the general election to be pushed up another four weeks. the prime minister of new zealand announcing that.
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the delay to the election which has put pressure when it comes to the kiwi dollar. we are seeing upsides when it comes to trading in the equities session although we are off the session highs. ,543 is where we see the kiwi pretty steady, the worst performer in the g10 space. in terms of the open, staggered. .25 percent lower, we were expecting that after sterling stocks closed out the best week in six weeks last week. it has been the growth areas. health care is driving that market higher. we continue to get earnings coming through. aussie dollar seeing strength. 71.90 amid a narrow range of trading. let's take a look at one of the stories we are watching, bluescope steel after reporting underlying profits for the full year that met estimates, we have the profit and a contraction of 63% year on year and net income
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down 91%. ,ne of the great trump trades make america great again, the infrastructure seeming to benefit the u.s. holdings, revising, taking a revision of these separations in new zealand, seeing downside of 2.5% in bluescope today. we will be speaking with bluescope steel later on, the ceo joining us from melbourne in the next hour. let's get more on the market moves. dixon advisory, the head joins us. we continue to talk about the long-awaited rotation into giving the market more breadth. do you see that happening, or -- at the driven by end of the day most investors want exposure even if it is to this expensive tech and growth stocks.
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that is right. the problem for investors, it is uncertain outlook in terms of at anot just is happening company level but economic level as well. that makes it hard to assess the the company has and to make a long-term investment into those companies. i think the last time we spoke to you in april, you said a couple of things, the structural changes that have been accelerated by the pandemic. another was the china-u.s. trade tensions. doesn't really feel like much has changed. we have got our question of the day asking how do you expect the china-u.s. impasse to affect risk assets? do you see that having a meaningful impact on risk at this point given we don't know
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if these conversations are going to happen? >> that is one of the big things underlying investors' uncertainty is not just covid but the global tensions and global restructuring of relationships. obviously with u.s.-china but also europe reconfigured their relationship as well, which over the long-term will have an impact on global trade patterns and also on the underlying supply chains which will go through to companies as well. that is an area where we feel it will be bubbling along in the background for a while, affecting the long-term investment decisions. is hard part for investors while we need to be balancing outlook, we need to be staying nimble.
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that is our big conviction at the moment. while there is this high level of uncertainty, we can't just completely put our heads in the sand and not do anything. what tends to happen with a big structural changes we are going through, and that is really what this crisis is creating, it is a catalyst for much bigger change. it is emphasizing and accelerating the underlying issues that were already sitting there and creating this bigger generational change. what happens in those kind of situations is we overestimate the short-term impact and underestimate the long-term impact. the obvious one being spoken about quite a lot over the last two months is the acceleration of adoption of technology products. we have been working from home we buying things online
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didn't think about six months ago. we have seen covid emphasize investing in health and age care as economic imperative. shery: a correction for our viewers, south korea is away on national holiday today. the government assigned this monday as a temporary national holiday for the korean workers who have three days for the weekend, given the summer would be tiresome for them, given the covid-19 fight they are facing. we are seeing the resurgence of the virus in south korea. let me stay in south korea because it seems an incredible rally, halting on friday that nine-day rally. how much potential does the market have given it seems to be a world of tech investment and south korea, very advanced with semi conductor manufacturing. >> that is right. we have seen a lot of this tech play out across the globe.
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because of the valuations that have been reached, the big names in the u.s., there is a lot of interest in other sectors, the sector has been popular. there is certainly expectations of longer-term growth, but it is making sure you don't pay more for it. the issue that needs to be considered is that we have seen how quickly things can change. bringing it back to australia, melbourne outbreak and the increase restrictions we had to put in place in melbourne and victoria, that has had an impact not just in victoria but the other states in terms of confidence levels that flow through the economy. the second wave, we really don't know how the economy and consumers are going to respond to those. what we are seeing, when you look at china, they have been
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leading the way out of the toovery with the fastest reopen, is that the consumers have not yet returned to precovid spending. we saw that in the retail numbers last friday. it is something would need to be conscious of what the rba, the slow and uneven recovery. unemployment tends to be underreported in the official statistics. that is true in australia and china, where the actual number of people that are not working could be higher than what we are seeing and the recovery to full employment takes longer. shery: think you so much. macau set to open its doors to chinese visitors again next month. we will examine the outlook for tourism there and across the region.
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trade talks on ice, the u.s. and china postpone a planned phase one trade deal, no indication when or if they might be revived. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
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watchingou are daybreak asia. the coronavirus continues to march on around the world with infections climbing to 22 million. 770,000 people -- they tell a days. the u.s. continues to be the epicenter with almost 48,000 new cases reported and 1000 deaths for a fifth consecutive day. hospitalizations in california hit the highest in seven weeks. china and russia could work together on a vaccine. south korea is warning of a new mass coronavirus infection after
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oforting its highest number new cases since march. most of this is linked to a church in seoul. tokyo confirmed they were down from 385 saturday with young adults in their 20's forming the largest group. 18,000 people are infected with 25 described as serious. victoria state has reported a new daily record of 25 deaths from the virus and 282 new infections through the death toll is passed 380 in the state prompting authorities to -- other restrictions throughout the state to at least september 13. the number of new infections is increasing. new zealand prime minister jacinda ardern is delaying the upcoming election saying it is vital the vote be safe amid a resurgence. she is proposing a four-week delay with a new date of october 17. she says it is important it be
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held in a well organized matter. the current rise makes it difficult. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. shery: china and the u.s. have postponed indefinitely trade talks that were going to happen over the past weekend. no official reason has been given. stephen engle is looking into this and joins us from hong kong. any idea when we could get these delay talks? stephen: no data at all. it is indefinite. that is the word -- the word out of washington. many anticipated a virtual teleconference on saturday. it did not happen. they have been postponed. it was supposed to be the vice premier and these two gentlemen.
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there was a lot of other issues other than trade that have become a sticking points. donald trump last tuesday alluded to the fact phase one trade deal was maybe not something he wanted to really see to fruition because of the with chinap he said had changed. there has been the coronavirus. there has been taiwan issues and tensions. there is also tensions surrounding hong kong at the national security law and the tech issues whether it is huawei, tiktok or we chat. friday donald trump issued another order with a new bytedanceon dance, -- tiktok service. they are giving bytedance 90 days to find the u.s. buyer to sell its assets. this is another sticking point in the increasingly contentious relationship between china and
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the united states. stephen mnuchin said this review conducted on tiktok, it was exhaustive. unanimously recommended this action to protect u.s. users from exploitation of their data. when donald trump was asked about it saturday, he said oer chinese tech cpanies could be looked into. finalize asian of this, the fighter jets from the u.s. to taiwan, the global times calling this another u.s. provocation. stephen: yes, the f-16 deals, price tag of $62 billion, yes, it is sure to wrangle beijing. this was a deal announced first in august and now it has been formalized.
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back in august the ministry of foreign affairs in beijing said u.s. armed -- arms sales violates the one china principle. on other issue that is troubling the relationship between china and the united states obviously. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent with us. we will get more on perspective on china-u.s. relationships. the former attorney at the office of the u.s. trade representative joins us in hong kong later. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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chinese tech is in the spotlight this week. president trump signaling he plans to put pressure on these companies. alibaba are about to
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report earnings. let's start off with earnings out of j.d. and alibaba., the of alibaba, expected to do very well. most analysts expected it would levels inpre-covid terms of sales. the second quarter preview, they contended the sales will grow strongly. the consensus estimate is $.38 a share, $.15 year-over-year growth. the consensus revenue, that is 197 for the second-quarter adjusted earnings. a lot of analysts focused on the e-commerce. we have seen it with u.s. companies like amazon, a lot of
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focus on how well and alibaba have done. now to alibaba, reporting later this weekend could be one of the companies on president trump's radar. kathleen: let's look at the earnings which is first quarter sales, expected to rise as much 29%, the consensus estimates equally strong on the view they have continued strong sales growth during the pandemic which will put the company back to the crisiss before began. in terms of the pressure on alibaba and other tech companies stocks, that rose to another level over the weekend when president trump was asked about the pressure he has been putting on chinese tech, whether he would consider looking at companies like alibaba.
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the president in his style didn't specifically reference alibaba but said he was taking a look at these kind of companies. we have seen the president talk a lot about tiktok and microsoft. there is a view he will ratchet up the rhetoric on chinese tech. no specific new companies have been targeted. shery: su keenan with the latest on earnings. tencent and goldman sachs backed 50% togrowth, expecting 80% growth for the next three years and rapid expansion across china. the delivery startup raised close to half a billion dollars in his latest funding round. they spoke to bloomberg about how they will position themselves in the competitive market. the compilation has already went to the second stage where differentiation is happening
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among leading players. and the way it competed with others is technology in the supply chain. technology,th this which has everything. we want our central brain to be capable of operating like thousands around the whole nation, like cap inc. -- thing we are investing the most. the second thing is the upper stream supply chain. goods, control of the and even private-label business. the supply chain plus technology of retail makes ms. fresh -- that is exactly where we think is the competitive age. >> how did the pandemic impact your virus? >> it did cultivate the behavior
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of the online shopping customers. we used to deploy like if there is a coupon, to generate traffic , to help behavior but now we don't have to do that. customer ratio, the ,as already hit his or her peak but we have subsidy. i think that is the biggest change of the behavior. now we have seen more people who was born after the 1960's and 1970's have chosen online shopping as a solution. thearticularly mostly market has been shifting to the older generation, the biggest population like around 30 to 50 years old and who does have like kids. i focus here of cooking. these neighborhoods to acquire more customers at cheaper price while generating higher average revenue per customer.
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that means better economics and faster expansion. >> you see the data on a daily basis. how much his china's consumer -- >> we did not see much fluctuation. we have seen a surge into the about per customer shopping more goods than they needed. it is early stage panic. but after that, the supply and -- the supply recovered and everyone is living a normal lifestyle. >> this is an incredibly competitive space. compete? what is the number one thing to focus on to ensure they don't squeeze you out? >> supply chain capability. the first part is the merchandising capability. we adopt a model which means we take the inventories, and we are the only player in this market has the capability to do inventories within one half a
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day. we don't see others have this capability. we have 70% of the goods purchased from producers which takes years of accumulation. we don't see other player has been doing this. the other party is the retail units management. like thousands across the nation. it is hard to manage as we discussed just now. we use technology to do this. >> your focus is on first and second tier cities in china. where does that take you in the five-year horizon? is thepriority for us domestic market at this moment. it is a huge market, and we are just at the very beginning. >> what is the timeframe for going public? >> we don't have that planned. the priority is confidence --
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to tomfresh speaking mackenzie. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪ you doing okay?
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♪ haidi: we are just getting numbers out of singapore. nonoil domestic exports rising 1.2% month on month. we are seeing a rise of 6% year on year for july. much better than the rise of 3.6% we were expecting. the breakdown into electronics, exports rally 2.8% year on year. we have seen a flurry of upward adjustments when it comes to forecasts. we are expecting a contraction when it comes to the second quarter of 2020 by the tune of
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about 15%. for the month of july, nonoil 6% year exports rising on year. we continue to see more of a recovery. priceuarterly basis, the of oil falling sharply with that oil trade falling shortly. falling sharply. also watching pharmaceuticals, that tends to be a highly volatile component. in terms of what we are seeing for july, that nascent recovery continue with singapore trade. let's get you a check of the first word headlines. the u.s. and china have no new date in mind for a phase i tray still review. the deal house says remains on pause with a rise in recent tensions. president trump is threatening to raise those tensions, saying he is looking into banning other chinese companies from the u.s.
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after an order for tiktok to sell u.s. operations. the japanese economy continuing this -- continuing to stumble. 27.8%ized gdp growth fell in the second quarter, more than expected and vastly worse than the previous period. one brighter spot is business expenditure, down again but by less than projected. the u.k. is being warned that 2 million jobs could be under threat if the government ends the virus support program too early. billion's of workers will still rely on cash help when the program wraps up in october. the u.k. saw its biggest fall in employment since 2009 in the second quarter, with many more jobs expected to go. germany may extend job saving virus subsidies to 24 months, saying it would only cost an
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extra toy for billion dollars. it would cover two thirds of regular salaries. the finance minister says the new proposal would double that timeframe with the number of short-term workers in germany significant higher than 10 years ago. shery: the story does not get any easier for the hotel industry as travel bans and social distancing efforts slash demand for rooms. let's discuss the impact on the tourism industry and bring in a pack president of -- bring in operations.nt of give us your outlook for golden week travel for chinese people in the upcoming week. >> good morning. thank you for having me. china.looking into
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he just mentioned hospitality. no exception. we have seen quite a shock to the system. 80-plus percent of our portfolio. mainland china is where we have seen the recovery start first. all the locations where we have hotels in china and asia. that recovery has been fairly solid. obviously, we have seen what can happen very quickly, as in beijing just a few weeks ago. generally, the recovery and china has looked very well. we are well prepared for it. when business came down and when we were hit, we needed to review
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processes very quickly. we launched a program that focuses on our business from a health and safety perspective. withirly early on engaged a consulting agreement. our decisions on health and safety. shery: so what is currently your occupancy rate in your hotels across china? where you see the biggest improvements and perhaps the regions that are still lagging? a market, very much reachable from shanghai and other significant cities surrounding it. we have seen fairly strong business in china all across july. selling out over the weekend. joeact, going back to hung
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-- going back to hangzhou, we beat last year's numbers. then inhat do you do markets where there is not that robust resumption in travel and tourism like in china. i would us -- i would suppose hong kong, to a certain extent where you are in singapore, there are only so many stake saitians -- so many staycation residents can take. again, early on, even at -- as ite, we have relates to cost, we have looked at productivity rates. it is very much about communication. we are working through the devolution of this pandemic very
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closely with our ownership partners in the respective markets. strong business model and we know we can work through this. planning together while maintaining our very people-centric position. about elsewhere? where are you seeing bright spots and the potential for a quicker than expected recovery? rainer: we have seen very strong business in seoul, south korea. veryve seen all together good demand with rare exceptions on the restaurant front. --umber of our restaurants evenfew instances
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increasing are doing stronger business. , we offer and a number of our resorts, in thailand, in the maldives, but even in urban regions like retreate offer private experiences. in many instances, large outdoor spaces. shery: what is your outlook for the macau market given that we resumingtourism visas the mainland and we are heading towards the golden week holiday? rainer: we are relatively optimistic. the markets there and to that
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extent, ramping up. macau, with care, with great use of technology, where we have seen strong gains is with the use of our technological applications, whether that is the four seasons where we seasons chat communicate with our customers in well over 100 languages, all powered by people so not a chatbot. communicating with our customers. that has proven very effective -- helps us step step us step by step. occupancy,nd room what are you doing in terms of planning for perhaps fundamental
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behavior changes in terms of especially those events such as hotels inconferences, the past could have made revenue out of. rainer: it is a very important revenue stream. we have seen in certain locations in china strong demand. it became evident very quickly that the recovery would look different wherever we are. we are looking at the learnings in asia and trying to apply them elsewhere. again, while understanding that it looks a little different wherever we are. havee extent that we adapted through these apps, through chat, the ability to check in without having to be in direct contact with any of our team members, if we do so with
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the right distance measures that we have in place, and all of the efforts that you would expect. we have seen that work quite well for us. that while focused ultimately service looks a little different, that it feels the same. that human conductivity in whatever form and shape continues to be very important. haidi: do you have a contingency plan for your business in hong kong? do you have expectations that there will be a meaningful recovery if the political tensions continue and numbers do not recover even once border and travel restrictions are lifted? rainer: cross-border travel, very key. with hong kong, similarly with a
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city like singapore. ago,d see just a few weeks even with limited ability to actuallyto hong kong, a very nice recovery. traveloptimistic of particularly from china but awfully other -- but hopefully other travel bubbles form and travel continues to come back to hong kong. to the point you made earlier, our dependence on the restaurant fared fairlyhave strongly and that is significant, no doubt. haidi: really appreciate your time with us. pac presidenter a
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of hotel operations at four seasons hotels and resorts. a will be speaking with steel ceo later this morning. coming up next, a busy week ahead for oil markets. zeroing on the key meeting between opec and its allies. we are seeing a resilience in brent crude. we'll be getting the outlook for crude. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> here is another check of the markets. the nikkei under pressure, down 0.6% after second quarter gdp numbers contracted. we are talking about getting deeper into recession territory. tech one of the big laggards among japanese stocks. the same story with the asx, where financial and tech stocks are leading declines. kiwi stocks gaining the most in about it -- in about three weeks. prime minister ardern postponing the general election by four weeks. u.s. futures gaining. a mixed finish on friday in the u.s. we are watching closely what happens to the u.s. dollar this week as we continue to get mixed readings when it comes to the economic strength of the united states.
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we are watching crude starting the week out fairly strongly. about $45our or so, per barrel when it comes to brent. about 0.6%ude, higher. this week's opec-plus meeting, prices still lingering well below the average price for the past two decades. some companies are beginning to wonder if it is worth looking for more sources. let's get more from energy editor aaron clark. before we get to the existential crisis side of things, what are you expecting given the overtures of normalization or raising prices that we have been hearing lately? aaron: i think the market will be looking for several things. the first is that there is an overall sense of the market that supply and demand have started
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to balance. you are seeing a little bit more stability in the prices. any change in supply could disrupt that. opec has said previously that they intend to restart about 1.5 million barrels per day of production this month. they plan to return that amount of production to the market, from the 9.7 million barrels per day that they cut earlier this year, which really helped to boost prices and return the market to balance. clarity around if and when they do resume that, bring that 1.5 million barrels per day of production back into the market is going to be what people are looking for. shery: what are producers saying when it comes to exploring for oil and taking advantage of resources that have already been found? aaron: there was a great story out this morning from bloomberg,
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just saying that oil markets are having second thoughts particularly about exploration. bp said earlier this month that they would no longer do exploration in any new countries. it is really because of several factors. one is of course the shift away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy. as that happens, there are concerns that the price of oil will be much less than people anticipate in coming decades. you have a risk that remote oil-producing access becomes stranded. i think for one of the first times ever, we are seeing large companies like bp be very hesitant or shy away from the reserves. shery: what are we seeing on the demand side of things? in the u.s., gasoline consumption seems to be rising. aaron: there are some signals.
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some people are saying the market is returning to balance. you are seeing a little bit of increase in demand. over the past two weeks, wti has rallied about 4%. american crude stockpiles declining. gasoline consumption rise. adding to that, some data points showed bright spots in the economic outlook with industrial production increasing for a third straight month in july. there are a few economic bright spots suggesting that demand is increasing a little bit or at least stabilizing. shery: coming up, what started weeks ago as a longshot challenge has attracted the biggest names in finance. the latest on today's federal court hearing. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. india's bank has raised $2 billion via institutional placement joining a number of indian lenders boosting funds as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push out bad loans. the nation's second-largest
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private sector bank. singapore's sovereign wealth fund picked up 11%. morgan stanley bought 7%. singapore investor thomas ike holdings invests in blackrock after adding a stake worth around $3.5 million -- $3.5 billion. temasek bought the shares earlier this year. the two companies have worked together in the past with talks underway for rate joint venture in china. reports from japan say the government tried and failed to push a merger between nissan and honda. and cite sources in tokyo say the idea was promoted toward the end of 2019. it was rejected before the plan could be put to directors. nissan, honda, and the prime minister's office declined to
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comment. ofdi: bain's resurrection virgin australia is facing mounting legal opposition as creditors from ubs and deutsche bank. a court will be hearing the bond makers bit here in sydney. our global is this editor is here on the -- global business editor is here on the line. said, a court will hear this appeal in about 25 minutes. the bondholders are seeking to for fair alternative rescue virgin australia. next month, at the final creditors meeting, is when they were set to vote solely on bain capital's takeover of virgin
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australia. some of the biggest names in finance, ubs, credit suisse, deutsche bank, they are putting a proposal together and they want the judge to allow them to get their proposal on the ballot. they want more information from virgin australia's administrators to put that rescue proposal together. inry: what are we expecting terms of the timeline going forward given the legal opposition? exactlyt is not clear how this last spanner in the works from the bondholders will affect this. the creditors meeting being held next month. now we have this snowballing opposition from bondholders. there is a chance the judge may give more time to the bondholders to put a proposal together. i think what this proves is that
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when you are trying to rescue an airline and there are thousands of creditors involved, it is not a simple process. this was supposed to get them into the sky before they ran out of cash. they seemed to have done that. deloitte was basically the administrator. now that the bondholders are looking to muscle out bain, it is proven much more complicated, a delay that will cost more money, it will be more complicated for creditors and everyone involved. haidi: as virgin kind of struggles to be reborn, what are the implications of the latest shutdown we are seeing in victoria, just the general state of affairs for an eventual reopening of air travel? virgin signed an agreement with bain in late june
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to be bought by the private equity fund. since then, the situation has deteriorated by the week. you have had resurgent outbreaks of the market -- of the virus in the major markets that they were focusing on. this hollande, melt -- new zealand, melbourne, sydney. the biggest dates in australia. new south wales and victoria. also, the australian capital territory canberra. it is hard to see how you can mount a resurgence of virgin australia and the circumstances. shery: angus whitley with the latest on virgin australia. exclusivet hour, an interview with australia's largest steel manufacturer. bluescope ceo mark vassella joins blumberg tv to discuss
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their latest earnings. international trade lawyer weighs in on u.s.-china tensions. "the china open" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back.
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>> 9:00 a.m. in beijing and shanghai. . welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." i'm trying to -- tom mackenzie. david: i'm david and glass. let's get to the top stories today. the phase one trade review is postponed and there is no timeline for a new date. president trump ups the stakes warning he is now looking at other chinese companies including alibaba. tom: china proves the


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