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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  September 2, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> there's much more rationality happening in the equity market when we look the surface. -- look beneath the surface. >> the fed needs help. the fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. >> the dollar we is is a growing concern. >> the only reason not to be pragmatic is fear of stability, which doesn't seem to be in the cards. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowizc. lisa: good morning, everyone. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. i'm lisa abramowicz.
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tom keene, jonathan ferro off today, both playing hooky as we get ready for the long labor day weekend in the united states. i'm lucky, though. paul sweeney, my former cohost on bloomberg radio, joining us today. it is so telling that we are showing an image of washington, d.c. because it was too cloudy in new york city, and perhaps that is a metaphor right now. very cloudy in new york city for the future for a lot of things. very much the focus on washington, d.c. as people wait for some signs of fiscal support , as people wait for some signs of just how contested this election in november is going to be. paul: i think all eyes are going to be turning towards washington. this is then thetion, more near-term fiscal stimulus. the question is, does this economy need more?
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a lot of folks are saying yes, but we need to get congress back at the bargaining table. they seem to be pretty far apart at this point. lisa: we will find out. right now, markets unfazed. they are indicated to open at new highs today. 3947.5 --sing to 3547.5. basically, the nasdaq leading the way yet again. interesting to see 10-year gilts higher, but not by much. , yes, i will continually do it to four decimal points. the euro weakening against the dollar, falling to 1.8 five $1.85.- to , seeing therisk on
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idea of oil gaining as inventories come down. people driving around. this is the story of the day. risk, period, full stop. right now, steve sharon, federated -- steve shive around, federated ash steve chiavarone -- steve chai have around -- steve chiavarone, federated hermes portfolio manager. we have seen the absolute decimation of the labor market earlier this year. steve: i think the story behind the market is simple. i think we have exited recession and we are entering the next recovery, which will lead to the next expansion. i think the reason why we have been able to get to highs so quickly is there's three stats that explain it. incomes are up 7.5% versus last year.
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mortgage foreclosures are down 2/3 of 1%. 1% to that's roughly 1/4 of what we were doing during the great financial crisis. so they have protected capital in this kind of downturn, and the consumer end businesses are better positioned than you would expect them to be given the severity of the economic contraction. lisa: what won't you buy right now? steve: piling into a treasury bond is probably not the smartest thing. i think more importantly, and i am talking a little bit on my own book here, but i wouldn't buy a whole bunch of etf's. i don't want to own everything right now. i think there are a lot of companies that are not going to do well coming out of this, and it is incumbent upon investors to be able to sort through industries and take the
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industries and avoid the losers. that is the key thing. paul: you talked about some of the positive economic developments, but a lot of that was driven by fiscal stimulus, putting money into people's hands, into small and midsized is mrs.' hands, and of course the fed is there best midsize business' midsized hands, and of course the fed is there. steve: it is kind of dumb to fumble the ball in the red zone. you are probably one fiscal package away from getting yourself towards a vaccine. but if you look at the personal income number that came out earlier this week, what you saw was that while the impact of stimulus has waned, you have seen a pickup in compensation from work. so i think the economy is healing. it is getting better.
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it is starting to become self-sustaining. but there's enough uncertainty that one more bill probably makes sense. it would be nice to see congress get their act in gear here and get something done. the: as with think about equity markets, the theme has been the handful of tech stocks driving the market. does value get its time in the limelight, if ever? steve: i think people are may be misreading the narrow breadth of the market. narrow breadth at the end of a cycle is very worrisome. if every company is at their 52-week high, and there's only two or three left pushing you higher, that is a sign of exhaustion. what we have here is the companies that did the best during the recession have let a foul, and the other companies haven't participated yet. we think that is really a sign of dry powder. as this recovery continues to take hold, as we get closer to some type of vaccine protocol,
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we will see other companies, some of which are value, are going to participate in a much bigger way at the economic recovery intensifies here. we think we are on the verge of that. we think you can play it in the value space. we think can play similar space in small caps. we think you don't want to be underweight international because those names have so much more value than the u.s. to in terms of the sector composition. stocks arenasdaq 100 up more than 2020 -- more than 220% so far this year. yesterday, zoom communications rose more than 40% in one day. some people saying that the justification for this is that the low yields make everything cheap. is that the story? steve: i think that is part of it. equity market multiples are related to bond yields, particularly corporate bond yields. if you look at where the corporate bond yield is, it would suggest that the s&p can trade upwards of a high 20's low
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30's multiple, which has never been the case before. i think that's part of it, but i bigger story is that we are in the middle of a digital revolution. what this pandemic has not slowed that revolution. it has accelerated it. you saw that in the salesforce earnings. company after company are looking to upgrade their tech, understanding that that is a bigger part of the way they do business. think you've got this very interesting, nation of this digital industrial revolution occurring at a time when bond yields are so low in the world has a scarcity of growth. it exists in the u.s., and u.s. tech stocks. so if you want access to that growth, there is a high price for it. ight? our robinhooders r are they on the right pastor just by everything? they are winning. steve: i think we need about robinhood, the first thing we have to remember, especially those of us that are professional investors, is
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everyone deserves a right to have access to the market. there are going to be folks that maybe don't have as much history and experience with the market. that is why media like yours exists, to help them understand that. think ultimately, what companies are realizing is if there is retail demand, if they can make their shares more attractive or more accessible, they are going to get rewarded because retail investors want access to some of the companies. there will be some names that end in tears for folks, but at the end of the day, i think any time there is more interest in the public markets and the compounding returns, that is a good thing. it is our job as an investment industry to make sure those people have the tools and information to mekhi becton -- to make the best decisions they can. paul: if icn economic recovery in the next 12 months really accelerating, what are some of the beaten-down sectors i should be looking at? mi brave enough to go into financials, for example? steve: if you think economic
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growth is going to improve, you should expect long dated bonds to go up a little bit. that would be beneficial to banks. we come back to small caps. they are cyclical, so as you get cyclical improvement in the economy, they are going to benefit from that, much like value stocks. but 15% of their debt is variable-rate bank debt, so low rates forever are really going to benefit them. in the first year following recession, we think that is in termsbe your play of a cyclical recovery. lisa: i like that. steve shive around -- steve chiavarone, thank you so much. we've got some news for anyone who likes fantasy sports. draftkings says that michael jordan is planning to take an equity interest. right now we are seeing draftkings shares rise more than 13% in premarket trading. this is so interesting to me on
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so many levels, especially following the fact that the rock has recently been making investments. are you a big fantasy sports guy? steve: i am not, but i know people who are absolutely into it. in this world where you have been shut in for so long, there's penton demand -- there's pent-up demand for people to really gamble on sports, and it has seen a surge here. we've got a number of states including new jersey that allow online gaming, and it has been very popular. lisa: the great state of new jersey. gratuitous plug there for new jersey resident paul sweeney. [laughter] if people want to take risk and that, they have been doing so. people say there has been as much daytrading as there has. interesting to see michael jordan getting in on this, perhaps seeing the light at the end of the tunnel where we actually get sports coming back. still the focus is very much still on the virus. we are seeing an upsurge in cases imparts around the country.
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we speak with deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine, coming up next. futures indicated for another record high. this is "bloomberg surveillance" with lisa abramowicz and paul sweeney. good morning. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. treasury secretary steve mnuchin says the economy urgently needs more stimulus to rebound from the coronavirus. he says he initiated talks with speaker nancy pelosi to try to get negotiations going again. republicans have been putting together a narrow $500 billion briley's package. policy want -- billion release package. pelosi want much larger packages. president trump spoke while meeting with police in kenosha, wisconsin. man inthere shot a black the back during unattended arrest. last week, two demonstrators were killed for joining a protest.
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a national poll shows joe biden leading president trump 49% to 41%. biden also had strong support from nonwhite voters and those who lived in large metropolitan areas. officials say that china is closer to joining the u.s. and russia as the only nations capable of deploying nuclear weapons in the air, on land and sea. aide to outgoing prime ministers shinzo lobby has formally announced his bid to replace his boss. powerful forces in the ruling liberal democratic party indicates that he has enough votes to win he is known as a abe'som enforcer during nearly eight years in power. global news 24 hours a day, on
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air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ m ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance we are getting." is "bloomberg
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surveillance." we are getting some breaking policy numbers crossing the wire just now. we have michael mckee to go through them. not necessarily a good pricked her of what happens this friday with payrolls. 248,000 jobs come a much lower than the one million forecast, but again, this doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to have a terrible jobs report friday, even though the market may be trading sometimes in that direction, because last month, for example, they found on the 167,000 jobs, and we got over one million private sector jobs created. at this point, you can't take adp with a huge amount of confidence at predicting the way we are going. if you break down the numbers, it is not a bad set appear. we've got small businesses adding jobs. large businesses lost jobs last
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month. these are not new jobs being created. ,hese are jobs being restored so 448,000 is still a disappointment, even if it is significantly higher than what we would have seen prior to february. lisa: i'm unclear on what timeline discovers come whether this counts for the increase in virus cases, the re-pleasures in certain areas. -- the still yet to come re-closures in certain areas. it that still yet to come? -- paul: on the employment data coming up later, what do you expect to see here? michael: we are looking for a slow decline in the number of new jobs created. adp does only private sector jobs, so we have to look at the
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private sector numbers for the u.s. report on a friday. what we are looking for their private payrolls, we will call on friday.ion that would be better than the 1.5 million we got last month. economists are even wondering up a smaller number than that. adp might point in that direction, but they haven't had a great track record the last couple of months. paul: the economy is trying to get back on its feet here, may be a sloping rate -- at a slowing rate. . how do you think folks in washington are watching these numbers? michael: bad numbers are going to be seen by democrats as reason to go ahead and pass the larger stimulus bill, especially with a threat of extended state and local government layoffs. those don't show up in adp. states are out of money and they haven't been able to find any aid.
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republicans would point to good news and say the economy is healing. even though the numbers may not be telling us all a lot about , --e we are going from here from here. lisa: have we seen the bulk of the easy rehiring from the shutdowns already past behind us , and now seeing some of the structural layoffs and thinking about continentals layoffs yesterday, thinking about the airlines possibly cutting 500,000 jobs by year-end? michael: we have seen probably the easy part. seeing a consensus forecast that we go below 10% this week, but that is probably the end of the easy moves because so many companies are coming back online and finding demand isn't there. the interesting thing will be the airlines because they have this september 30 cut off. they have to keep people on payrolls until then, and then
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right now, it doesn't look what business is expanding off that they would cut back on the land cutback on the landing say are planning. lisa: basically, there has been this shift towards trying to automate as much as possible and get rid ev -- get rid of a earners.nt portion of michael: the economy was expanding at a reasonable pace before the pandemic hit, and job gains were in the 200,000 to 300,000 range for much of the last three years. so we are looking at a reasonably healthy economy until the economy got sick, to use the metaphor, and we saw all of these job losses because it cap completely shut down. the question now is how much demand comes back. manufacturing is where you see
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the most automation. that has been the one site that has come back. we saw that in the ism report. paul: we have an unemployment rate of just over 10%, down from 13%. what is the consensus number for the next 12 months or so? steve: i don't -- michael: i don't think anybody has a great idea. the general consensus is it would be around 10% for a few months. i don't think you will find anybody who thinks we will get anywhere close to where we were, 3.5% in february, for several years, if even that. paul: structurally, is there a sense that we are seeing some real changes in the economy resulting from the pandemic, whether it is work from home, automation, more technology replacing some workers? is there a concern that this unemployment rate maybe stubbornly high? michael: absolutely, and it is going to require some new
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economic thinking out of washington to try to do something about it because we are seeing structural shifts in the economy. the question is how fast do we recover demand? do people start wanting to spend, or do they start saving? it is hard to come up with an analogy, but if you look at the depression, people save quite a to do are people going that, or are we going to see a growth to divisive -- to the develop at we saw ahead of this? lisa: bloomberg's michael mckee, thank you so much. when you look at what is being offered on deposits in the checking account that we see, i will say this disconnect between record highs on u.s. stocks and the unemployment picture, which looks highly challenging, as something that is hard to reconcile. people say that the stock market
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is not the u.s. economy. that's right, and yet how long can this divergence occur? paul: it is so true. when you think of that 10% plus unemployment, there's real hardship out there, and for the small percentage of americans that actually own stocks, the stocks are hitting new highs, risk assets are hitting new highs, but the economic carnage out there is real. as michael was suggesting from -- as michaelt was suggesting from an unemployment standpoint, that affects their lives, and you wonder what the impact will be on this generation. lisa: especially if there is structural shift to using tech as much as possible and cutting out labor where you can. right now we are seeing equities grind higher toward all-time highs yet again s&p and nasdaq. you're seeing about a broadening out with the likes of macy's even seeing a lift after losing less money in its latest
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quarterly earning report and people expected. yields slightly higher, but still very low. a bid to crude. dollar strength. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ look here, it's your very own all-in-one
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lisa: welcome back to "bloomberg surveillance." lisa abramowicz and paul sweeney. tom keene and jonathan ferro on a well-deserved vacation. it is a by everything week, by everything month. the rally higher after the best august and 34 years. paul: it is extraordinary. i call it the fed backstop to the market. lisa: we are seeing it today points. s&p 3540 still at a record high if it sticks around. the euro off its highs. weakening just a bit versus the dollar. yields a little bit higher on the 10 year end crude getting a bit at $43 as people take a look at inventories.
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one thing that has power the economy has been the housing market, which has struck me at a time of so much job loss and so much pain in the consumer sector, the idea using incredible resilience, bidding wars and suburban areas for houses. lumber prices tripling. joining us is andrew chiefhorst, citigroup u.s. economist. what you think of the housing market? andrew: it is astounding. the data keeps coming in for housing and it keeps being stronger than expected. we saw earlier with mortgage application of move to multiyear highs, now you are seeing that come to sales and starts, across the board. a surging housing activity. yesterday oura: colleagues put out a report saying the federal reserve had bought nearly $1 trillion of mortgage bonds, one of the
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hugest buyers of the sector, pushing down rates, solidifying the market. -- much house the housing how much have the housing gains resulted from fed intervention? andrew: the fed policy is so important and when we look at the u.s. economy the sector most immediately sensitive to the fed and the interest rates is the housing sector. it is mostly about rates coming down. lower 10 year yields that led mortgage rates to move lower. they are purchasing mortgage backed securities as well. you cannot understate the importance of the fed -- you cannot overstate the importance of the fed in the housing market. paul: we had adp employment numbers out today. weaker than expected. we are seeing improvement in the labor market but may be losing steam. that is so critical for the u.s. economy overall. what is your view of the labor market? lisa: is another area -- andrew:
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it is another area where we have been continually apprised to the upside of job report. i would be careful of the adp number. it is difficult for adp to keep up with what we are seeing the official statistics. that number can look more positive. it is important to see this rehiring continue. that has been supporting incomes , even with a high unemployment rate. we like to get that closer to normal. it is obviously a long road, but so far a positive story. paul: how critical is it congress followthrough with another round of what i will call a significant piece of stimulus. , was done ond generally a bipartisan basis, but it looks like politics is creeping back in this round. andrew: everyone thinks it would be a good idea to have more stimulus.
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that is on both sides of the aisle. both economists agree. the fed agrees. you want to put it in context. we have had a very significant fiscal stimulus already. if you look at what has happened with the income support you have had, the government substituting for incomes that were lost due to the results of the pandemic, you see incomes have been supported, consumption was lower because a lot of avenues for consumption or close down. --means the economy individual households have saved about $1 trillion above what they normally would have saved. now you have things that unemployment benefits are expiring. that is not a good thing for the economy. we would like to see those restored. even if they are not, you do have a lot of savings coming. a better story if you can get the next leg of fiscal policy. can consumption rebound continue
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even if you do not get the next leg of fiscal stimulus? for the next few months that story stays intact. i get more concern to find up to q4 and 2021, going back to labor market, this is still a deeply depressed labor market. andrew hollenhorst of citigroup speaking with us. i am a little uncomfortable as we talk about this. we are talking about the boom in housing, the boom and equities, and unemployment rate above 10% ,ith permanent losses, job cuts productively at these lower income levels. this goes into the story of the widening gap between the rich and the poor come the people who can buy houses and buy stocks and those who cannot. what is the structural challenge , what is the economic result of this widening divide? andrew: it is a real issue for the u.s. economy, and certainly those inequalities have been is exacerbated by the crisis we
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have come through. that is why i'm encouraged to see the federal reserve changing their framework, talking about pushing the implement rate even lower so we can start to bring some of those workers back into the economy. what happening is we got down to a 3.5% unemployment rate. this is a long road. i do not think anyone is saying this'll be easy to get back to something like a 3.5% unemployment rate. i think we have to get back down to the low rates of unemployment to bring more inclusiveness into hiring in into the labor market. that is where we were, that is not where we are now. that is what monetary and fiscal are trying to get as back to. back talking about getting , today is back-to-school. you see a lot of parents taking to their kids to their first day since march. i have to wonder what the effect is on the younger cohort. i was looking at data that showed the 16 to 25 year demographic had an unemployment
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rate of more than 18% versus the 10.2% average. the entry level have evaporated. what is longer-term economic effect of that? andrew: that is part of why you want to try to cure the problems in the labor market as quickly as possible. where yous after 2008 had students coming out of high school, students coming out of college trying to get their first job and finding the first job was not available. that is probably more the case with this downturn because we have seen the entry-level jobs go away, the lower wage jobs go away, and that is a potential avenue for a permanent structural scarring on the economy. that is what you're trying to avoid. we know the situation is bad in terms of a high employment rate, but what you want to do with policy is try to limit the amount of time we spend at these levels so you can get those individuals we were just talking about back into jobs come
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integrated back into the labor market. if you have an extended period where you are not in the labor market, that means human capital is not being built, that means the attachment between workers and firms is being lost, it is important to get that back as quickly as possible. the folks ate citigroup thinking of the economy? the gdp number the back half of this year into next year. how do you think the recovery might look? andrew: it is looking every bit as bad as the contraction was in it willrebound in q3, not completely make up for that, but we will have a very elevated annualized growth number. spent a lot of time talking about the -30% growth, and annualized number, so you are multiplying the contraction by four, and also some things are transitory that will be
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reversed, and that reversal coming. you should also be careful with the qfii number. i will tell you that q3 number looks like it will be closer to 30% than 20% annualized. at our first forecast we thought may be more like 20. you're growing from very low levels, i want to emphasize that. trying to get back to more normal activity. it still looks like a powerful growth rate in the fourth quarter. paul: how about 21? is there going to be meaningful growth in 2021 and how much of that is dependent on stimulus? andrew: i think we can continue to grow but that is where you start thinking about stimulus. there was stimulus that was done, stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, that will carry us through q3 if not the rest of the year. iswe get into 2021, that when you would like to see or help for unemployed workers, people who are unemployed through no fault of their own. you would like to see other
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forms of spending, things like infrastructure that have a high multiplier. those are things you can think about after the election. lisa: andrew hollenhorst of citigroup, thank you so much for spending time with us and good luck with the initiation of school, possibly for the first time in person since march. i want to offer up a bloomberg surveillance correction. if tom keene were here he would demand this. it is back-to-school for some folks, yet new york city yesterday to delay the school 21st.g to september ill.ids do not all get i am speaking from personal experience. some of the schools opened up yesterday and they are doing half the kids one day, have the kids the other day, virtual instruction.
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some neighboring towns in new jersey not opening, going all virtual. it is a town by town structure. lisa: and it raises the question about how much of a handle we have gotten on the virus. that is the key question, especially when you see a resurgence of cases in certain hotspots. we will speak with deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine about that. when you talk about back-to-school, perhaps some people are buying new clothes because you are seeing macy shares up 5.5 percent after reporting a smaller than expected loss. perhaps retail is not dead. have you been back to a physical store? paul: no. big amazon guy. lisa: looking at markets. amazon getting the boom for the paul sweeney's of the world as people look for all of those packages stacked ahead of their doorstep. amazon shares up nearly 1%. you are seeing dollar strength, perhaps the death of the dollar
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was called too soon yesterday. i am lisa abramowicz alongside paul sweeney. jonathan ferro and tom keene off today on a well-deserved day off. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. it was a record-setting month for joe biden and the democratic national committee. bloomberg has learned they will report raising more than $350 million in august that is the most ever in one month. the trump campaign has not announced its numbers for august yet. it is a victory for the democratic party's progressive wing in massachusetts. senator markey defeated congressman joe kennedy in a hotly contested senate primary. markey was backed by progressive congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez. kennedy is the first member of his well-known clinical dynasty to lose a race in massachusetts. mercedes-benz unveiling reboot of its luxury sedan. a high-powered combustion model.
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a hybrid. the ceo of mercedes parent at daimler spoke to bloomberg about sales after the big second quarter crash. >> we see sales are picking back up again. and we areading three months into quite healthy growth in china. the united states and europe are not on that level. after that unprecedented month we had in q2, we are starting to come back towards normal levels. ritika: traditional carmakers are pouring billions of dollars into electrifying their fleets. they are relying on combustion powered cars for profit. in brazil, the government has been handing out so much cash in response to the pandemic that poverty is approaching a historic low. about 66 million people have been getting $110 a month. that makes it brazil's most
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ambitious social program ever. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> more fiscal response is needed. the president and i want to move forward with more fiscal
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response. the expiration of enhanced unemployment insurance is something we are concerned about. lisa: steven mnuchin, u.s. treasury secretary talking about additional rounds of stimulus. everyone who talks about the economic recovery says it will hinge on the trajectory of the virus. the trajectory of the virus is unclear, it could pop up when you least suspect it. even in places like new zealand, which seem to have got it under control. dr. deborah fuller owning us from the school of washington school of microbiology. some people talk about going back to school, that will be a disaster, others say it is fine. kids are not vectors of this particular virus, what is your take? understand how to potentially reduce transmission through wearing of masks and practicing handwashing and the
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publicam not so sure the is following through on all of those practices. that is where sometimes you see schools opening up and saying we could implement all of these practices, and then they see a high spike in infection rates. unless people are 100% compliant with all of the rules, that virus will take an opportunity and transmit. i think it is difficult in the absence of a vaccine to get team,ody to work as a wear their masks, wash their hands, and follow the safe distancing practices. if they do that, we could safely open schools. lisa: there are so many unknowns from my vantage point. 100% compliant.
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can people back in subway cars if they have masks on, can people go to outdoor dining and sit and take their masks off to eat as long as they are outside? are these things safe or are we already engaging in practices that will necessarily spread the back as we start to become to normal? dr. fuller: there is no one hundred percent guarantee, and we are talking about the social distancing and wearing the mask in the handwashing. there is evidence it can reduce transmission significantly. it does not mean some virus will not transmit, but the way viruses work is the more people that get infected, that makes more people that can infect others. if you can reduce the number of transmission events to low levels, then people can go about
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their business much more effectively and you can start to see the incidence of transmission decline. that is what you saw and some the other countries like new zealand, where they just implemented safe practices and quickly saw the rate of transmission go down to almost zero. it is possible, it is not 100% guaranteed, but it is better than what we have right now. paul: let's switch gears to the vaccine, that is a discussion everyone wants to have. everyone is looking towards a vaccine. we know there are approximately a dozen entities working aggressively on a vaccine. give us your read of the landscape. i feel like i need a scorecard to keep track of all these entities, whether they are universities or pharmaceutical companies or biotech companies would give us your sense of where we are and a sense of timing.
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we are entering an exciting phase for vaccine development. there are about seven candidate vaccines that have entered into phase three clinical trials that is a stage where we are testing the efficacy of the vaccine as well as the safety. it is going and tens of thousands of people, where some people get a placebo and some people get the vaccine. otherwise it is a waiting game where the virus is in control of the timeline. they will wait and see until a certain number of people become upected and then they open -- they take the blinders off and they are blinded to who belongs to what group and they will determine are all of the people who became infected, are the majority of them placebo groups? if that is the case, they can go to licensor's her manufacture and distribute the vaccine for use. the fact we have seven of them is very promising.
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that means the vaccines have high marks for safety as well as demonstrating -- we need to see in an effective vaccine. this is exciting, and we are in the final phase and perhaps only months away from seeing the first vaccine licensed for human use. paul: how sure can we be about the safety of these vaccines? usually it takes years and years of testing, and it seems like we will get a vaccine within a year , a year-and-a-half of the beginning of all this. that calls into question safety. how do you think about that? dr. fuller: the years and years have to do with how the process has changed in the events of this pandemic. the years is because the phase one, two, and three are done sequentially. with the pandemic, they are
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being done in an overlapping fashion. all of the safety tests are still being done. nothing is being skipped. by the time we have a vaccine that completes phase 3 successfully and shows to be effective and safe. we can be confident it has gone through all of the checkmarks that are absolutely required right now to license a vaccine for public use. lisa: you would be fine getting one of the first vaccines if it came out? dr. fuller: yes. i wish i could. what you have to be aware of is when these vaccines are coming out, there will not be billions of doses suddenly available for anybody to take. it is likely going to have to go into first responders and health care workers and the like. it could be for some of us months, even after the vaccine has been released for public use before we are able to show up in line to receive them.
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i have said many times i think it will take multiple vaccines to be able to camp down this pandemic, and you will see we have seven phase 3, hopefully at least half a dozen over the course of the next six months is my hope, that they get licensed. deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine at microbiology professor. thank you for bringing us the facts as we try to look for some sort of vaccine. we have about 35 minutes ahead of the u.s. open. we are to open at new highs as the s&p and nasdaq of forward. coming up, we have the brazilian central bank governor speaking with erik schatzker of bloomberg at the emerging and frontier form 2020. that is a virtual event organized by bloomberg. check it out online and live go bloomberg terminal. we are seeing reduced flows into the development world.
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a lot of questions about just how devastated some of the economies are. this is great. paul sweeney, loved having you on. i am lisa abramowicz. tom keene and jonathan ferro back later this week. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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taylor: from new york city our viewers worldwide, i am taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts right now. we begin with the big issues. investors evaluating economic recovery ahead of friday's critical payrolls report. >> the economy is still recovering overall. >> you look at pmi, you look at retail sales, you look at housing activity. >> we expect recovery to continue. >> we do not expected to be robust. >> not a v-shaped recovery. >> let's not forget the labor market. >> i keep looking for a reason to get bearish. >> policy is getting to be an issue. >> the market continues to grind higher. >> unless the economy turns down again. >> a deceleration in growth. of aere is a real risk double-dip recession. >>


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