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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  September 3, 2020 7:00am-8:01am EDT

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more rationality happening in the equity market when we look beneath the surface. >> there's all this comfort globally around at levels. at some point it will be too much. >> the fed needs help. the fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. >> fiscal stimulus would be nice to have. i don't think it is a need to have. >> fear of instability doesn't seem to be in the cards. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from the city of london, good afternoon. for new york, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. i feel like we should just deal with the elephant. tom: oh stop. cut to the chase. how was tuscany? jonathan: tuscany was beautiful. we negotiated that new contract,
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with malan for another year. [laughter] i know you've missed me. everyone has been saying you've been crying every sickle morning. tom: this has been something, folks. there's a lot going on in europe, who will be great to have jon in london for a bit to keep track of things. just to go away from jobs, away from all the news flow we got, i mentioned this to anna edwards, i am thunderstruck by the tone barnier on- of mr. a united kingdom that is not even responding. has brexit fallen off the united kingdom at? jonathan: can we agree on one thing? just because i am here, i am not the brexit correspondent. i still have very little interest in that debate. i also want to talk about this market. i think there's been two down days the whole time. tom: absolutely. we have seen a paring back here. pause, andis just a
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i think there's a lot of buzz out there right now about the lack of liquidity and people hedging along the way, creating an acceleration ever higher. that will be tested in the coming days, particularly of these two days of labor data. jonathan: i just feel lucky that we have lisa abramowicz keeping it together for the last two or three weeks. fantastic to catch up with you, 90 minutes away from jobless claims in america. lisa: we will be getting that at 8:30 a.m. eastern. claims,xpecting 950,000 less than last week, less than the week for, yet still vastly elevated compared to recent history. 10:00 a.m., i am interested in services. we have seen divergence between a robust recovery in the lagginguring and a services sector. we will get a read on that. also today, former vice president joe biden having his turn in kenosha, wisconsin.
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my family hails from wisconsin, so i have particular interest. very interesting to see how biden shapes the law & order debate, which is really entered the front and center of the presidential race. jonathan: busy day ahead. let's get the price action as we count down to the opening bell this tuesday morning -- this thursday morning. 0.4%. s&p 500, down 0.6 6% on the u.s. ten-year. euro-dollar had a little look at $1.20. no thank you was the response from ecb chief economist mr. lane. the first sign of verbal intervention from the ecb in the last 24 hours. at what point do they start jawboning the euro? i've never bought that for a minute. to me, it is a much closer level
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where the euro becomes a problem, and we are beginning in the last 48 hours to see that discussion begin. jonathan: should we play a drinking game? every time tom says the word sabbatical, you have to take a shot. lisa: you provide the alcohol, i am right there with you. jonathan: tom has got some under the table, i guarantee it. lisa: i do miss you here in the studio, but glad to see you are holding down the fort in london. jonathan: that's how things should be between people that like you to the. i miss you too. rbc capital markets derivative strategist with us now. are we trying to justify the unjustifiable, looking at this equity market and where it is right now? have question. honestly, probably a little bit.
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especiallysitation, as an options person, we have seen this phenomenon over and over this summer, where markets go up in volatility goes up, too. the spot upthat as dynamic. intuitively, you can think of it as when the markets go up, people are getting more nervous rather than less nervous, which is not the traditional way the relationship should work, and should definitely give investors some pause. tom: should our viewers and the pros innore their derivative strategies right now? [laughter] we looks funny because at a lot of data, and part of what we've seen is a lot of historical relationships break , you getn that happens a lot of exuberance.
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i think part of what has is retail has really been right in saying these traditional relationships don't make sense. the market goes up, and that is ok, but the reality is over time , we do normalize. it is just very tricky to say when you need stops. but when you look at a 20, 30 your time period, they almost always revert again. i guess the answer to your question is always one of tightening. lisa: talking about a little to softness today after a completely solid run into the most speculative areas of markets. do you see this as a lasting trend that will be with us through the rest of the year, the end of the presidential silly season, as tom likes to
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say, or do you see this as a blip, a momentary buy the dip moment? amy: here's how i think about the timing. the options market is extremely , but at this point i think alatility through november is little bit expensive. what i think is the most interesting part of the term structure right now is when we get a vaccine that is one that .veryone is comfortable with you can pretty much say this coronavirus pandemic has effectively been solved. i think that happens, you're going to get a very interesting divergence in the markets, where this narrowness of breadth we have seen, with seven or eight stocks rising up the home market, you get a really weird
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situation where in the s&p 500, you've got 490 stocks rally in, but the indices are actually down because of what happened with the overweighting in the market caps. wherek it is very strange the broader multitude of , despite are rallying it being a good thing. jonathan: what do you make of the fact that equities have and equityrallying spreads have stopped tightening? amy: i think that is interesting. i think a little bit of what is been happening on the equity side has been driven by the derivatives market, so there is more technicals that play. we have really seen that in the tech side, where we see premium
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tech upside and call spreads across the board and the biggest mega cap names. so what has happened with that some ofs exacerbated the second-order derivative effects, and that tends to drive the market up in these names. names have is these such heavyweights in the indices that they are therefore driving up the indices. what i thought was interesting is in the last week or so, we are starting to see the positioning in the options market actually was flipped to the downside. so what we are seeing in terms as opposed to near-term upside being bought, i think you do start to see that reversion coming in. tom: thank you so much. amy wu silverman with us of rbc capital.
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-- of rbc capital markets. we have claims today, the oddest of odd jobs reports tomorrow, and i really don't know where the market will be or if it will break late friday and into monday -- or tuesday, i should say. jonathan: let's start with the good news. the economic recovery has continued. it hasn't materialized so far. many people year member a month ago thought we might get a negative payrolls print. we didn't get one. it was positive. the biggest issue i have with where we are the moment is people in their ability to comfortably justify why we are where we are in this market. withntastic conversation -- if i told you at the start of the year every single data point, every input, every policy response, would you have guessed where this market is right now? tom, the answer overwhelmingly
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for most people is absolutely not. whenre we so comfortable the reality for 70 people away from wall street is so different -- for so many people away from wall street is so different? tom: this is the inequity we see, and to me it is absolutely extraordinary to see the partition we have observed over the last two or three weeks in new york city, the partition of america. lisa: the huge job losses across the board. while you were gone, guess what happened in washington? absolutely nothing. theink this to me as one of biggest conundrums, the idea that people are saying if we don't get some sort of fiscal support, we are going to see job losses that pick up steam yet again. we have nothing on the docket. mitch mcconnell saying yesterday yet doesn't look good. if the markets are pretty sanguine, that seems on its bondable to me -- seems unexplainable to me. jonathan: somebody people have said if we don't get a fiscal deal, if we don't get agreement
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and washington, d.c., this market would get in trouble. this market has not got in any trouble whatsoever. i've been away a while. i've got to rimmer the brick structure -- remember the break structure. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the timing on this may raise some eyebrows. the cdc has told states that a coronavirus vaccine could be ready by november 1. that is just two days before the presidential election, an aggressive goal that would depend on shots being tested and reviewed by then. president trump's political future hinges on the response to killed.s that has . almost 185,000 americans new polls -- has killed almost 185,000 americans. new polls show joe biden leading in swing states. wisconsin,he edge in
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north carolina, and arizona. in all three states, biden shows strength amongst women and suburban voters. secretary of state mike pompeo has proposed new limits on chinese diplomats in the u.s. the curve has to do with meetings with local officials and cultural events. the u.s. is taking the steps to match chinese limits on american diplomats. china is moving to counter trump administration restrictions on semiconductors. beijing plans a sweeping new set of policies to build up the overtics chip industry the next five years, putting the same kind of priority on the effort it gave to building its autonomous kit ability. one man was rescued after a ship carrying 43 crew and 5800 head of cattle overturned and sank. the man told the japanese coast guard ship had ended trouble -- had engine trouble and cast sized -- and capsized.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are simply demanding reciprocity. access for our diplomats in china should be reflective of
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the access the diplomats in the united states have, and this will move us substantially in that direction. jonathan: reciprocity a word you will hear many times from this administration, and the next one, and the next one on the relationship between china and the united states. that was secretary mike pompeo. here's your price action this morning. we will have initial jobless claims for you as well. equity futures down zero point 4%, negative 16 points on the s&p 500. in the bond market, what a turnaround. chairman powell pulling the floor out of treasuries, and all of a sudden in the last week, we turn back. we are unchanged on the session. euro-dollarxchange, $1.1810. that currency pair coming in 0.4%. tom: just breaking down to new weakness, the turkish lira was at 7.44. this is a substantial move, and
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something you should have on .our radar what is also evaporating within american politics, the view from theheard secretary of state, it is campaign on. kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. gage for us right now what matters for these two campaigns. is it the continued law & order, the statements of portland and kenosha? is it economy? or is it something else? kevin: yesterday there was a , and that wasent that the cdc came out and said that states should be ready for vaccination implementation by november 1, two days before the november 3 election area it also comes the same week in which a
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nonpartisan panel of scientists since guidelines to the federal government as it relates to who want to get the vaccines first. the vaccination is proving to potentially be the october surprise. how the rollout of this vaccination and the approval process goes, and whether or not americans trust the approval process in the united states for the vaccination truly could be a collision course for the economy, as well as the pandemic . tom: are there any adult medical doctors who say we are going to have a vaccine before november 3? i haven't heard that. kevin: in terms of the approval process, if you look at the guidelines, you got a handful of vaccinations already in phase 3 developments, and a handful more in phase 3 as it's called worldwide. the reason i bring this up is because this is precisely where
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the precise medical concerns and the search of getting people back to work, into the classroom , and two restaurants and gyms, as it relates to that, it is also a political issue in terms of the rollout that could really impact not just the markets, with everyone looking for vaccination news, but also for certainty in the economy. jonathan: the election is two months away. there was an editorial in london on a simple question that the democrats want to ask, which is who can fix the pandemic. this administration wants to ask a different question. who can secure the cities? what the author of this piece isntified is that whoever doing the most explaining is losing, and right now former vp joe biden is doing a lot of explaining about the riots across the cities in america. is he starting to lose the argument? kevin: i would also argue that
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presidential elections are about the future, so for any candidates talking about the past, even if it is only six months ago, is potentially a political misstep. 255 is my magic number this morning. separated thewhat 2016 returns from president donald trump to hillary clinton and kenosha county. county, 255 votes separated it into 15. why you've got biden headed to kenosha county today, and the president there earlier this week. jonathan: this is the conversation the president wants everybody to be having right now, not on the pandemic because this is where he polls terribly, but on this situation, this question on who can secure the cities because for the president
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, he's got a message to sell, and he is selling it. but the people rioting are the people aligned with former vp joe biden. how does joe biden separate himself from that? kevin: he's trying. biden was in southwestern pennsylvania this week, saying he is not a socialist who wants to add the type of recklessness in the cities. what is fascinating about the kenosha story is it is not a major trouble us. this is really a relatable type of community in terms of suburban america, its diversity and where it stands on a host of different other indicators. what is really remarkable here, i would also note the president needs to come out and make sure that suburban voters don't feel like he is fanning the flames of division in the country. that is really what the democrats have been trying to push for. any poll indicates that the
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economy still outbreaks even the pandemic in terms of what is weighing heavily on voters minds. wherehere are we --lisa: are we in terms of president trump's involvement on a second round of fiscal support? kevin: the president has said he wants to utilize executive orders in terms of dividing addition -- terms of providing additional support, when it comes to rent assistance and the like, but the bottom line is, i feel at this is a running joke between us at this point, there still is no deal. kevin, greatathan: to catch up with you. senator schumer right now, the gop stimulus proposal is completely inadequate. do you think we have to get our hands around the potential possibility that maybe there is no fiscal deal before this election? , thatn your sabbatical has clearly been the tone.
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there's no question about it. but i would suggest has deteriorated while you were gallivanting around europe is lisa and i have really seen a deterioration in europe. there's no question about it. we've heard this from listeners and the risen the nation area going into the jobs report with no hope of stimulus, to me the immediacy here is very much heightened over the last four weeks. jonathan: do you think this shot glass is too big? lisa: i was thinking the same thing. jonathan: i am probably going to need this, aren't i? lisa: 1000%. cheers. tom: cheers to jon. cheers. lisa: for the sabbatical. jonathan: this is me pretending i'm happy. good to see you, guys. in the markets right now, equities on the s&p 500, equity futures slightly negative. tomorrow, the payrolls report in
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america. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ give you my world ♪
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jonathan: live on bloomberg tv and radio, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." two hours away from the opening bell in new york city, here's the price action. with equity futures down around 0.5%, the s&p 500 still on course for a sixth straight week of gains. your tenure maturity, 0.65%. the dollar stronger against the euro. $1.18,llar just north of coming in 0.4%. wacko with areally later labor day here. some would say the season doesn't start until seven number 14th, next monday. -- until september 14, next monday. we need a briefing, and particularly a briefing on our economics and dynamics, and that
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is lewis alexander with nomura. he is their chief u.s. economist. let me cut to the market economics for the moment. what shall we expect today from claims? what should we expect tomorrow in this odd jobs report? lewis: in some ways, the surprising thing is these numbers have held up remarkably well given that it is clear that activity slowed in august. we've also gone off the fiscal cliff, so we are not getting the kind of support. our expectation for tomorrow is we are going to get 1.3 5 million new jobs. that's 1.25 in private and a decent gain in the government, and part because of the census worker. to be perfectly honest, given how much the economy has stalled, it is surprising that things seem to be doing that well, but that is the indication we are getting. tom: within the jobs report, you move right onto the american economy.
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do you just model without q4?ulus into we see reports of 4000 jobs here, 19,000 jobs there. lewis: i think if we don't get another round of stimulus, the risks are very high that we get a slowdown. you've already seen a decline in unemployment compensation so far in august that is on the outer 5% income. that is a very big shock. the surprising thing is it hasn't really showed up in the spending payee yet, so we have data that lags by only a couple credit cardh actual and debit card spending. those numbers have not rolled over yet, and that is a bit of a surprise. i think if we go into the end of september and october without getting a deal, i think that is going to be a different story. jonathan: at the moment, where are you more constructive?
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where in the story could things be ok? lewis: the biggest reason to be optimistic is the fact that we've had this summer surge in covid. it seems to have been contained without going back into full lockdown. the fact that we kind of reached a peak and then backed off with relatively contained things is encouraging, number one. number two, the fact that economic activity has continued to expand, so for example, if you look at things like the opentable bookings for restaurants, those have continued to rise. it suggests that our ability to live with covid is much better than it was in march and april. so i think that is encouraging. there's a question of how far does that take you. number one, if we don't get further fiscal support, and number two, if we kind of get into the fall and get into the true second wave people are worried about.
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there are big risks going forward, but you have to interpret the way it has played out over the summer is in some ways better than you would have expected given what we have in april. jonathan: let's make one assumption right now, just for the sake of this conversation. let's assume they don't make a deal in washington, d.c. what would that mean for your forecast coming into 2021? lewis: currently we have modest growth. is already,arter because of the bounceback, going to be very strong. it is really what happens after that. deal,don't get a fiscal we will have an out right decline. lisa: will we ever get back to the 3.5% unemployment rate of last year? ofis: yes, just in the sense forever is a long time. i think it is fair to say that
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the labor market has actually been stronger than most of us thought it would be if you went back to the way we thought this was going to play out in april. but it is going to depend on, number one, getting the virus no longer being a threat. i don't think we have a shot at getting back there until we, through a vaccine or herd immunity or some, nation, it is -- some combination, it is no longer a factor. i think it is going to be a long period of recovery. i ask that because there was a survey coming out of the bureau of labor statistics that showed a much slower expected rate of growth in the united states over the next decade then in the prior decade. we are seeing structural cuts across the board. i'm singing of, airlines with nearly 500,000 job losses so far this year.
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void?obs will fill the lewis: one of the big questions that is hard is what is the world going to look like after covid is no longer a threat. what is the outlook for industries like airlines, travel, restaurants, those kinds of things? it may well be the case that, for example, there isn't as much business travel because we've all learned that we can do this stuff remotely more effectively. i think ultimately, that will mean it will take longer to reallocate those jobs, but history will tell you that ultimately, the economy adjusts, we find new ways of doing things, and ultimately the economy gets back to some notion of full employment, even if it looks very different. those sort of structural changes take time. that's part of the reason why it will take longer to get back there. but i don't think it means we won't ever get back there. alexander.s, lew
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we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television, a simulcast. i've got to go to your thoughtful excellence over the years. how is your view on our digital dominance, on technology changed since march? lewis: i think the most interesting thing is businesses have learned that they can do things more efficiently remotely then i think they ever thought possible. and in some ways, the reaction you have seen two extreme social distancing and whatnot i think is going to affect things going forward. that that it means divide we have talked about in the past, where if you can use information technology to do your job effectively, this is a good world for you because that technology is just getting better and better, versus if it is not something central to you,
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then it is a problem. i think those sorts of trend have been heightened by this, and i think this misses is have learned things that they didn't before, and that is going to have permanent effect. ultimately, that broader trend of information technology is the biggest thing in our minds, and is likely to continue to be for the foreseeable future. that was true before covid. it is going to continue to be true. but in some sense, we have kind of made a jump on this. i think it is going to be a challenge for people whose jobs are in some sense not tied to that directly. that is going to be an increased challenge for them. tom: tomorrow with this odd jobs report, we are looking at one data point. if you are looking at five years of wage data, do you suggest that with technology, compressed wages? lewis: i think you are going to
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continuously see pressures that will boost the wages of people who work with technology because , and that since will get better and better, versus the people who don't. the government over the next few years is going to be how you deal with that inequality. that is something that biden is talking a lot about. it is going to be a big challenge going forward. overallthink it means wages are down, and wanted the competitions we get tomorrow is it is a very hot umber. it is just -- very odd number. are veryral shocks large. it gets pushed around compositional shifts. so it oddly went up when unemployment crashed because the
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people who lost their jobs were relatively low wage workers. it has come back relatively strong as some of those people have been rehired. you have to sort of look through those aspects of the changes. it is a very odd statistic now. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. lewis alexander of numerous securities as we count you down to the payrolls report tomorrow morning. look at the spread between the high-end and low estimate on wall street right now, wide going into tomorrow. million.n, 1.3 5 unknown once again going into payrolls. tom: there's all these little data things that really have my attention. i know it is illiquid, and in america we have labor data next monday. oil,notice oil, american west texas intermediate, american oil really making an effort to get back to a $39 handle. there are these little tea
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leaves of economic attraction that we have to watch. jonathan: you're not subtle, are you? [laughter] and you havecz been making out that i have been gone forever. lisa: he pretended i was from the adirondacks for about three weeks after i went there for one week. stick with it. you are going to be fine. my question with some of the labor data, it has been a sort of leading indicator or at least a real-time indicator that people have considered. i am wondering if losing that ability, as we watch an economy changing in real-time and very much responding to fiscal support or lack thereof. jonathan: we got to learn to live with it. ,, i've been traveling, and i've got skin in the game now. i understand what it is like to see the new york-london corridor shut down. it is absolutely ridiculous right now, and it is because we can sort testing out in the u.k. or in the united states and a sufficient way to get people traveling again. what more do the airlines need?
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they need testing so people can travel again. tom: absolutely. the same thing here in america. it is extraordinary. and it will be in that labor report tomorrow. jonathan: the payrolls report just around the corner. from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures down 0.4%. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the cdc says states should prepare for a coronavirus vaccine to be ready just a couple of days before the presidential election get that is an aggressive goal that would depend on shots being tested and reviewed by then. president trump previously said he things a vaccine will be ready by election day. that claim has raised questions about political interference in vaccine reviews. president trump once again denouncing voting by mail. he told a crowd in north carolina that if they vote i mail, they should also go to the polls and try to vote a second time. he said that as a way to
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determine whether that mail ballot was actually counted. that could lead to voters violating the law if they try to cast a second ballot. reviewnt has ordered a of federal funding for what he calls anarchic cities. democratic run cities that have protests demanding racial justice. any move to restrict federal friends -- federal funds would probably result in a court case. juul is thinking about entering more european and asian markets. a health crisis scented into a tailspin last year. offcompany has already laid about 40% of its workforce. no word on how many jobs could be cut this time. in baseball, hall of fame pitcher thomas seaver has died. he turned to the new york mets from lovable losers into world series champions.
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he's only one of two pitchers to record more than 300 wins. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
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>> the economy is healing. it is getting better. it is starting to become self-sustaining. but there's enough uncertainty that one more bill probably
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makes sense. jonathan: steve shive around -- steve chiavarone there. the market has been doing ok, better than ok over the last six months. a constant rally that is showing no signs of ending. this morning, we are down by 13 points, off 0.4% on the s&p 500. in the bond market, stable on the 10 year treasury, 0.65%. for all the fanfare about chairman powell in the past week, just a complete 180 in the bond market at the long end. not just the 10 year, but on the 30 year as well. tom: it is correlated out to push against the reflation belief coming out of jackson hole, and maybe it is august, bb-8 is the economy -- maybe it is the economy. we cooked to for digits on "bloomberg surveillance," 1.3827% on the 30 year bond. simulcast.e are on
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we welcome all of you ,oast-to-coast across america that has clearly and has always been over retail. we are facing that now. ofve said of -- steve side -- steve sadove joins us, mastercard senior advisor, and .any years of saks fift what is the new new for you? steve: mastercard data would tell you on the recovery side, you are starting to see a recovery. if you go to the depths of the pandemic in march, we are looking at a -14% in the total consumer spending. it has improved dramatically over a number of months, but the rate of growth has been slowing. we went from that -14% to now at a low single-digit level that
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has stayed at that low single-digit level for the past couple of months. if you look at retail, retail has been a little bit in the middle of the epicenter of that, and what has happened is the retail has not died. it has shifted. so you see a doubling in the amount of internet sales basically, and you have seen that the retailers who have been contactless, who have been home related, who have been the ones that have been open during the pandemic, the home depots, lowe's, targets, the reality is you are starting to see green shoots in other retail. travel entertainment, which had been dead in the water over the last several months, you are starting to see an improvement in travel and entertainment. that is what is interesting coming out of the recovery. in europe you have seen some recovery in travel and entertainment. you have also seen people staying closer to home.
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gasoline is up. you are seeing lodging starting to improve. so it is not just about retail in terms of the home decorating and hardware. now the restaurant brands are improving. clearly your comment about the number of stores, you are going to see a massive number of losers in terms of the number of bankruptcies in the retail sector. tom: how are we going to clear that market if there are a massive number of losers? how do you move them aside so you can move on? steve: i think there's going to be a repurposed thing of malls. a number of the anchors are either closing or going bankrupt. you are going to see them repurposed as either health care, education, fitness. this is the normal evolution of retail, but remember, overall retail coming into the pandemic was about 4%. i'm not going to be doing any
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forecasting, but even as we sit today, we are in the low single-digit decline. internet, on the channel is going to continue to grow. we have to many stores in the united states. everybody knows it. it is probably three times per capita what you see in europe. so we've got to see a closing of a number of stores. it is a reset going on with the landlords. the rents are coming down, and you are going to see, you go to madison avenue, they can see -- the vacancy rate is 25% to 30% or more. lisa: you have seen people shift away from spending money into brick-and-mortar stores. they are spending online, supporting this economy. they continue to do so. can the for the purchases they are charging on their mastercards? steve: no question. is see a consumer that coming back. macy's reported yesterday that
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their high-end luxury businesses are doing well. saks made comments that they were positive in their overall trend. the luxury consumer has not been traveling internationally, so they have the spending capacity. at the lower end of the market, the government support since the pandemic started have supported spending, so i think that clearly there is a question right now, a bifurcation between wall street and main street, and that the consumer is not growing at the rate we are seeing the stock market rowing. on the other hand, there is a the consumerand has been spending largely on home basics for the first several months, but now as you look at the travel entertainment data, as you see it in europe, you see it in the u.s., consumer and restaurant spending improving, even department
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numberst just 50%, 60% have shown improvement over the last couple of months. as the economy is opening, you're starting to see that spending coming back. jonathan: steve, just a final question for me not just about where there is spending and how much there is spending, let's talk about how they are spending. what can you guys do to get contactless payments up in america? steve: i think it is what the consumer needs and wants, and the progressive retailers, looking at walmart, target, home depot, the big boxes, they have the scale to be able to do the contactless spending on the mastercard's of the world, providing some of the capabilities to do it. that is going to be the future longer-term. smaller businesses i worry about because they need to be able to make the investments, and right now they are strapped. jonathan: and it's expensive to install those machines.
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great to catch up. some work america needs to be done on that front. i remember it as a story of told often, going into a duane reade maybe five years ago with a contactless card and tapping it on the payment screen, and the individual behind the counter looked at me like i was a magician. they had never seen a contactless payment used with a credit card before. i think compared to europe, that is where u.s. retail needs some work. it is critical for the small business. it is expensive to move in that direction. but in an environment like this, it's got to happen. tom: you've got to believe it is going to be forced if we get the apple report we had the other day, of 5g finally coming in late this year and into next year. maybe that will be the catalyst to do that. we are coming up here on plain, 45 minutes away. there will be a spacex launch. we are looking for that they are to moveour after claims
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a satellite into orbit. jonathan: coming up next on the program, seema shah, principal global investors chief strategist. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
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>> i think there's honestly much more rationality in the equity market when we look beneath the surface. >> there's all this comfort globally around debt levels, and at some point it will be too much. >> the fed needs help. the fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. stimulus would be a nice to have. i don't think it is a need to have. >> the only reason not to be pragmatic is fear of instability, which doesn't seem to be in the cards. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning -- tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast on bloomberg radio,


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