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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  September 9, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> a longer term not looking good right now in terms of the support for consumption. >> this economy is dynamic, but not dynamic enough given the shock it has received. >> this is a different correction then we have seen the in the past. putting a lid on high yields. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. calm afterle bit of the nasdaq storm. tom: it's not risk on. you don't have higher bond yields helping out, really signifying the enthusiasm, but i like the idea of calm, and maybe stability as well. nasdaq 100 down 11%.
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yes, that is a correction. the dow down only 5% or 6%. that is not a correction. jonathan: correction emits massive rally -- correction amidst a massive rally. tom: i will get you something from tiffany. jonathan: i look forward to that. data coming later. lisa: i am very curious to see with the jobs picture will be. to tom's point, this is not a full-blown recovery where people are looking at a risk on feel in the markets. we will get the july job openings data, which is the leading indicator for jobs growth. selling $35, billion of 10-year note's. also today, congress is taking a look at the u.s. china economic and security review commission. very interesting to hear what
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the bipartisan proposals could be about legislation to potentially penalize china for transgressions. i really want to emphasize the bipartisan aspect of this. you've got president trump coming out against tiktok and wechat, and former vice president joe biden coming out today with a proposal to levy taxes on u.s. companies that outsource jobs to china. jonathan: and a love letter from the walt disney company, tom keene, that you did not miss. it has got hugely controversial in the last 24 hours. tom: no question about that. the theater,clear the intangible debate into china as well. all of this really important. his last comment was critical. he said everything he sees in washington, this is a bipartisan issue of how the disney family used the chinese party in
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western china or the making of "mulan." jonathan: let's do a market check. tom: lisa nailed it with the dope survey. this is a -- with the jolt survey. this is a big deal today. jon, the jobs aren't there for the unemployed. jonathan: that is coming a little bit later. here's the price action. equity futures up 20 on the s&p 500, a rebound on the nasdaq, too. euro-dollar 24 hours out from an $1.1754.ion, we come in another 0.2%. in the bond market, yields not doing much. yesterday. a rally tom: this is not a risk on rally. this is much more about a calm instability after the carnage we saw yesterday. jonathan: the discipline to maintain discipline, the message
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from david kelly at j.p. morgan asset management, the chief global strategist. what do you mean by that? david: i think we are in a recovery, but this recovery is about to slow down. the sound you hear outside is screeching brakes because the v-shaped recovery is going to show a loss in the fourth quarter and during next year. i think it is important not to pile into momentum stocks. we seen the stock market do wonderfully well this year, but parts have frankly done too well given the amount of uncertainty out there, and given that we are looking at higher taxes and higher interest rates. so i think it is important at this stage to be disciplined. just because we have seen some good economic numbers, just because the market does seem to be ok here, don't take your eye off the ball. we still got a long way to go before this pandemic is really over. tom: what is the idea of what the return will be? all of the assumption has been
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we are supposed to invest for single-digit return. nobody believes it is all in these high flyers. do we go back to a single digit world? david: we have to eventually because in the end, it is about nominal gdp growth. what has happened for a long time, for decades now, as we have seen the all you of financial assets in the u.s. rise much faster than overall nominal gdp, but ultimately it is about the growth of goods and services produced by the u.s. economy. so there is going to be some correction along the way, and we are going to see a return to single-digit returns. it is very important for people to look at valuations carefully because the things that are most overvalued are the things that are going to get hurt the worst when there is a more significant correction. jonathan: we talk about --lisa: we talk about how we could see a correction. in what, tech stocks? we see a return to performance in small caps, amtek tech is
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what is recovering -- small caps, and tech is what is recovering. david: it has been difficult for fundamental analytics. how do you figure out what these companies are really worth in the world post pandemic? i think investors are just jumping into the momentum trade here. when we get through this and have a more normal economy that begins to shape out and we have a sense of it in 2021, 2022, i think that value stocks should do better than growth. it is the most expensive it has been since the tech bubble. i also think international will do better than the u.s.. aboutk you need to think the boring middle of the market here and try not to be too teched or enamored of high , mega cap growth stocks. tom: your economists make very clear they have a very cautious view.
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is that cautious view folded into fourth quarter, or is that a cautious view for next year? david: it should be in the fourth quarter if we are looking at quarterly gdp. theaw gdp fall by 32% in second quarter. we could rise by as much as 30% in the third annualized, but then when you rise by about 3% annualized in the fourth, there's a very sharp deceleration in growth. and you are going to see that in jobs. sequentially we added 1.4 million jobs last month. that is good, but we think that job growth will now decelerate to less than a million per month, which sounds ok, except we are still 11 million short of where we were in february. in the quarterly numbers out to the fourth quarter, we see that deceleration. tom: what is the run rate on nominal gdp that you fold into your forecasting of the equity markets? about it is hard to talk a run rate in either 2020 or
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2021, but once you get into 2022, we are looking at something in the order of 4% to 5% once we get back to full employment. but you have to bring that unemployment rate down for a while here. we've got another problem, which is a demographic crash going on right now, which is also going to take something out of gdp growth for this pandemic. jonathan: what do you make of what is happening in washington at the moment? david: it is all politics. i was hoping we would see some sort of new support package, a phase for deal before the conventions because honestly, there are a lot of unemployed people in this country who need that. nobody wants to make a deal at this stage, it seems to me, before the election. hopefully after the election, however it goes in that lame duck session of congress, we will have something to support people who can't get back to work until the pandemic is tamed. for right now, it is just
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partisan posturing because everybody is focused on the election. lisa: is no deal or a skinny deal currently priced into the market? david: i think it probably is. we are talking about eight weeks , perhaps 10 weeks. once the election is over, i think there is a majority probably in congress for some sort of skinny deal, because after all, things like state and local government, you can come back in january with a new congress. depending on how that shapes out, you could do something then. you need to do something about the un-limit support to try and help these small businesses, but you don't need to spend a fortune right now because you can always come back next january and do something bigger. jonathan: just to comment on the language we are using at the moment, skinny deal is now something between $500 billion and $700 billion in washington. what are your thoughts on that? david: there are no fiscal hawks left. there are no monetary hawks either. we do need to do this right now,
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but i am very concerned that as the economy recovers, particularly if we get a good vaccine and it moves forward fast next year, we've got a lot of government debt, and this is a time when we need to really be is a blend in terms of policy just to maintain the credibility of treasury bonds and credibility of the currency. i have no problem with spending money right now because there are a lot of people that are really in some distress, and you are not going to create inflation in the middle of an economy with almost 10% unemployment. jonathan: david, great to catch up. send our regards to the team. tom keene, a deal between $500 billion and $700 billion, emaciated the words from the democrats. pandemic has completely
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changed the way we look at fiscal policy down in d.c., maybe forever. tom: there's no question about it. i like what i am seeing in notes from others this morning, which is where is mr. biden on this? you wonder whether the vice president will agree with speaker pelosi on a hard-line stance against republicans, or maybe gives way to some surprise compromise before we get to the election. it is all up in the air. jonathan: where is the president on it? do you think he is comfortable with how this is playing out? tom: i think he needs a bill desperately. jonathan: i don't since the desperation. i don't since the urgency. tom: i don't know. what are we talking, $500 billion versus $2.2 trillion, right? jonathan: something like that. democrats said they will come down to $2 trillion. the gap narrowed. it is still one point tried trillion dollars, though -- $1.5 trillion, the.
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tom: state and local here is absolutely critical. layoffs to come. jonathan: and that is not in this republican bill right now. equity futures positive, up 18. a little bit later, a conversation you do not want to miss. wilson of morgan stanley. looking forward to that around 9:00 eastern. from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell is setting up a vote tomorrow and his party's latest virus relief bill. it is a proposal designed to break the lock down with democrats in the house. the republican bill will cost up to $700 billion. that is a far cry from the $2 trillion relief package. fauci says it is unlikely that i coronavirus vaccine will
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be available by election day. president trump has hinted that a vaccine could be ready by then. that has skeptics concerned that politics will influence regulatory decisions on immunization. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson will ban all social gatherings of more than six people. to 3000 per day is prompt and johnson to act. there will be exceptions for organized sports, plus people getting together for work, weddings and funerals. bond market guru jeffrey the fed policy actions are distorting asset values. his views reflect skepticism about the market connection to economic realities. lvmhh luxury goods maker calling off a $16 billion deal to buy tiffany. the board blames the u.s. moved to impose tariffs on french goods. it comes after tiffany pushed back the closing date from the
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november target. shares plunged in the premarket. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rep. pelosi: but they have is so meager that it insults the intelligence of the american people. it does not solve the problem,
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and again, we know that we have to compromise. we know we have to negotiate in order to region agreement. we all want an agreement, make no mistake about that. but get serious. get real, mitch mcconnell. jonathan: speaker pelosi playing the blame game. all sides playing the blame game over the last month. from new york and london, good morning to you all. . here is the price action this wednesday morning. equity futures with a bounce after yesterday's losses. the losses picked up steam on friday with some positive followthrough -- negative, rather, if you are in equity bull. tom keene pointing out a little earlier on, just don't see it rip like it in the bond market. yields are on ash see it reflected in the bond market -- don't see it reflected in the bond market. yields coming in about 0.1%. tom: what do you expect from the ecb meeting? we haven't mentioned that once.
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jonathan: tricky one for the ecb president. for verbal intervention to work on the currency, you have to believe there will be policy follow-through. right now, not enough people do. that's why the euro bulls are still pretty comfortable with their euro longs. tom: we are pretty comfortable talking to kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. i am going to leave the stimulus aside and go to the polling. what i find absolutely fascinating is the new political methods in a new pandemic election. babies doesn't get it done anymore. , the: once the diagnostic postmortem is written on the selection, it is really going to be about the increase in ad revenue on both sides, and money spent on streaming platforms. you can't turn on hulu or any of the other platforms without running into joe biden or president trump. that really is a shift in terms
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of how the money is being spent. jennifer, my colleague jacobs scooping over the weekend that the president is willing to spend $100 million of his own cash on the reelection. there is an nbc news hole out poll that has -- nbc news the president has trailing by nine points in pennsylvania, but not in florida. , how do go to minnesota you spend the money over the next x number of weeks, tv? are they going to do it on facebook? kevin: for president trump, he's going to go there. the trump campaign has decidedly been going and campaigning more. yesterday they were into states and having -- they were in two states and having small events, but drumming up the local media. what is really interesting is this is a state that trump lost
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to hillary clinton, but the republicans talk to on the reelection campaign feel that that is a state they could crack. on election night and the weeks after, if you follow the mail-in voting issue, i am really going to be watching minnesota. should republicans perform strongly, that would suggest that they would perform strongly elsewhere. ditto for florida. if democrats pick up florida, that would suggest it is going to be a strong night or weeks, depending on the mail-in voting, for joe biden. jonathan: the blame game in full swing in washington, d.c. i just wonder how it is playing in the polls right now for republicans and democrats. how is this playing out in the numbers? kevin: it is really interesting because the fiscal debate in the fiscal stimulus debate has not really factored into the virtual campaign trail yet, but it is definitely something that
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business leaders of all sizes are closely monitoring, as our investors. in terms of voting as an issue, it really is reopening the economy and the pandemic that are driving the movement in the polls. but i would argue that from a longer-term strategy, three months, six months out, more spending from the government is likely on the horizon, whether it is before november 3 or not we don't know. we are still talking about massive amounts of money and , whether it is the $500 billion proposed by mcconnell yesterday, or the trillions that democrats would like to see. lisa: is there any money in that allocated towards state and local governments? kevin: a fraction of what the democrats want. to your point, this really could be one of the driving issues as it relates to potential furloughs or worse layoffs by the end of the year.
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look at firefighters, which are having to fight record blazes out in california. more than 2 million acres already burning. look at the police department in new york city. you look at all of the local and government officials who are country,across the teachers. this could be a significant risk from the employment side. whether or not that issue comes up in the debate or whether it comes up in a lame-duck, that is the biggest unknown variable. from a broader step back, three to six months out, likely more fiscal stimulus coming out of washington. lisa: is there any bipartisan support for more funding for states and local governments? kevin: i said this to jonathan ferro the other day, they view these positive economic indicators as a sign that this is moving in the right direction. you look at the 8.4% unemployment number, that is something that republicans are
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saying maybe more stimulus isn't needed immediately. in contrast, democrats, nominee biden, vice presidential nominee, harris -- nominee kamala harris are saying this is equally. distributed it has really shaped the contours of the conversation coming out of washington. jonathan: kevin, great work, and fantastic reporting on china as well. tom, you know what the debate is going to be in the next couple of months if we don't get the fiscal package. the pressure to reopen and push to open further some of these economies is going to build. some thing i have noticed in the last several weeks, there was a social stigma attached to big business coming out and pushing that message several months ago. not anymore. michael o'leary of ryanair was absolutely obliterating governments, including in the united kingdom, for not have a
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prop -- for not having proper testing regimes, not allowing planes to get into the skies, and not doing something about business travel. tom: the math is there on the death rates. there are some huge successes out there. i would argue never have we seen this in virology. the united kingdom a success. new york city a success. i can't we open up? that's the debate. jonathan: let's be clear about new york. i think we've got to talk about that. if you cannot eat indoors this winter, and if the government says we won't pay people to stay at home anymore, then you've got to reopen the economy. got to do something with testing. there's going to be a big push and pull. tom: we are there right now. jonathan: i agree. tom: the leaves are changing in new york city right now. it is becoming more autumnal. the debate ensues. jonathan: get long outdoor heaters. it is not even funny. equity futures pushing higher ahead of the opening bell after
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the route of the last couple of days. we advanced 0.6%. from london and new york, live on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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♪ jonathan: live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here's the price action this wednesday morning. the bulls doing a little bit of a clean up after the mess of the left when he for in this equity market. if you look back three days on the nasdaq, a three-day loss of almost 11%. futures positive today. s&p 500 futures up 23. the euro breaching $1.20 in the last week. verbal intervention brought it back down, and dollar strength helping things out, dragging down to $1.1760. 0.67%. yield unchanged, tom: lisa, i just figured it out. went toscany, ferro london.
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is pound cratered. lisa: i hear he spends more on gifts if the pound craters because he pays in dollars. jonathan: that's true. the ferro family are well aware that there are different tiers of christmas presents. cable at $1.30 and below gets wo. tier t tom: very good. so much for tiffany. right now, the doctor is in. i is truly expert on this pandemic and the hopes we all have for a vaccine. --all hope that the movement we all have hope in the movement that is fraught with risk. what is the next step after you
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fail a phase three trial? dr. fazeli: basically, i wouldn't call it a fail. basically we have a trial put on hold. if the data shows that, due to thevaccine, it is up to data safety board whether it is a risk going forward. how you will convince people to sign up for doses is a slightly different question. it is also possible that it is something to do with either the vaccine itself in general, which would be a bad news for other vaccine makers, or some way that the vaccine is delivered. we need to detail before we can make any judgments on that. jonathan: let's make some judgments further down the line. we know that one has got to be effective. it's got to be -- one, it's got to be effective. it's got to be quickly and
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widely distributed. but three, people have to want to take this. how widely received will this actually be once they do announce that they've already begun? dr. fazeli: with this noise or situation with the side effect, the sooner it is dealt with, the better, if it is truly not related to the vaccine, which is entirely possible. but i think there's already some damage taking place. it's likely that people who don't know much about how these things go may feel a little less inclined to sign up for the vaccine trials, or even if they are in them, to turn up for their first dose or their second dose. we have said that we think some of the other trials are likely to see some slowdown in recruitment or treatment speed. certainly trying to get this data out before any specified i think isember
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going to be unlikely. lisa: are we focused on the wrong thing? jon and tom were talking about reopening the economy, and yet the only way to do that safely is if you have rapid tests that can be scaled up so we have millions and billions of them, so people can just find out if they are negative and go. why aren't we more focused on that? dr. fazeli:dr. fazeli: absolutely right. , thee end of the day vaccine is an ideal outcome. it would be a fantastic thing to have, hopefully that is safe and sound. we all want to have to not wear masks, not socially distance. i don't want to spit in a tube every day. but given where we are today, we have essentially what is a vaccine, taking some poetic license, in masks. it reduces your exposure to the virus, and that reduces the
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impact on your infection. it is very easy to do, and everybody can do it. tom: sam fazeli, thank you so much. right now, gina martin adams on this market, with futures up 20. up much more earlier, but still a nice move to stability after what we saw yesterday. what will you write about this morning? gina: we wrote a lot about index valuations. we think the correction we've had over the last couple of weeks is really just been about bubble,g a mini tech not a broad s&p 500 selloff area i think this nuance is pretty important to assessing where the market goes from here because andkly, the party stopped stopped500 balance rising in june, but nobody told the tech sector. we probably need to continue to see that to close the gap with the rest of the market.
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it is going to create a pretty choppy market over the next month or so. frankly, the rest of the s&p 500 is not expensive. it is actually cheap by historical standards. we've got 90% of the index trading with earnings yield above midgrade. we've got more than half of the index trading below average price-to-book multiples. we started to dig into valuations and really assess the outlook. jonathan: you do a tremendous job of bringing the technicals into the conversation as well. can you speak to that, how supportive they are at the moment? gina: there's nothing really special about where we bottomed last night. i would say the bulk of the evidence would suggest this will withinttle mini bounce the corrective process for the s&p 500 over the short term. you typically see the index form a bottom when 14 day rsi or short-term momentum just somewhere between 35 and 40. as of yesterday we were still
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above 40, so we are not oversold by any stretch of the imagination. two weeks ago, we were extremely overbought, in particular in technology, consumer discretionary. we are certainly due for a correction in the big cap tech names and the mega caps in the s&p 500. we have gone through a significant amount of that correction, but it is tough to say we are forming a bottom here because we really haven't gotten oversold just yet. jonathan: this is the problem for a lot of people. is this just a correction, something broad-based, or the beginning of that rotation? gina: our view has been that we are in the midst of a rotation. if you decompose the equity market into factors, you find that the long-short value factors started to outperform all the way in august. over the last week, we have seen material stocks up, industrial stocks falling less than half
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the market pace. this has been a rotation in a significant form toward more value sorts of sectors. we need to see that continue to take momentum. last week we published our sector scorecard early in the week, and for the first time since 2018, the tech sector fell out of the top three rankings for the s&p. so the tech sector did fall into the middle-of-the-road, more value-oriented sectors like materials started to work their way higher, along with consumer discretionary and the health care sector. i do think you will have a mix of leadership or a shift in leadership that occurs. not only has it occurred over the last month, but it will continue to over the next several months, anticipating some degree of earnings recovery , some degree of economic recovery into 2021 with new leadership. lisa: putting the narrative aside, we start to look at the who behind the market actions. we've been talking a lot about softbank and some of the big
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options trading they were doing. who is left holding the bag at the top of some of this froth in the tech sector? tom: lisa, are you looking at me? lisa: i'm looking at you. i know you are loading that roomful of cash. gina: if you think about the s&p 500, you have seen something of a mini bubble develop in the mega cap tech stocks. it does appear a lot of that was created by the culmination of institutional investors chasing return, getting dragged into the market after the second quarter gains surprised everyone. we did see institutional investor flows into some of the mega caps names in july and august, but also a continuation in speculation among retail investors. it is hard to ignore the fact that retail has been responsible for roughly 20% of equity market flows this year, and historically they average about 15%, so you are seeing some degree of speculation. you are certainly seeing the highly leveraged triple q's
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rience a tremendous amount of flows in either direction. we did see institutional start to get pulled into some of these names as they chased performance to some degree. we are now seeing that froth removed in the market, and i would say the more we see that removed, the more we see some rotation. that is a generally healthy sign for the market to sustain its longer-term bull. i also don't know if you are necessarily holding the bag. we look out a year, two years from now, we are still going to see multiples at relatively high levels. we are just going through a small adjustment process that is somewhat inflated with respect to mega caps right now. it's got to get through that process. we will see multiples likely stabilize higher than anybody believes is realistic. that is because we still have a
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tremendous amount of liquidity provision at the fed, and you just can't ignore that longer-term. jonathan: gina, love catching up with you. gina martin adams, bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist. loving the idea that there is a room full of cash at on house. i can reveal for our audience, there's basically a guitar in every room, and in some rooms there's two, and i still haven't had an explanation as to why. why do you have some any guitars? tom: they get lonely. jonathan: they get lonely? tom: yeah. jonathan: they are just on the floor hanging out. tom: well, they are not on the floor, but they are hanging out. that's what you do. lisa: he's hoping somebody will throw a couple of dollars into the room to fill it up with cash. jonathan: i've got a video of tom singing happy birthday on a guitar. tom: i don't recall that. [laughter] mail, lives black
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on television. jonathan: he knows and got a lot of material. let's get to the price action this morning. ♪ that is our song. i put that out on twitter a little bit earlier. "africa" our song? i will never know. equity futures positive this morning. from new york and london, i have no idea what is going on sometimes on this program. maybe that is my fault more than his. lisa, sit out of it. lisa: i am. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says a new republican stimulus plan focuses on restoring supplement to job benefits and extending help to small business. the senate votes on the measure tomorrow. it will cost as much as $700 billion, about 1/3 of what house democrats want to spend. joe biden opens a new front on economic issues today.
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the presidential candidate heads to the battleground state of michigan. there, biden will unveil a new policy aimed at fighting off shoring, the practice of u.s. companies facing some operations in low tax countries. polls show that voters are starting to trust biden's approach to job losses. wildfires are now spreading beyond california. foron's power turned off about 5000 customers near mount hood. winds were threatening to take down carolines and start fires. it is said to be the first time such a shutoffs have happened outside california. president trump plans to announce further reductions to the number of u.s. troops in iraq today, according to an administration official. about 5200 american troops are still in iraq. it is unclear how many will leave or when that will take place. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you have just a handful of really good companies, but valuations are absurd.
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analysts are taking out their expectations many years. so you've got a great company, but they are artificially inflated. they just need to be revalued lower. jonathan: it's not just about a story. it's about the price of the story. ofd morganlander there washington crossing advisors. equity futures bouncing back, up 20 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.6%. thismarket snoozer so far week. crude bouncing back. we will talk about that in just a moment. in foreign exchange, forget the euro. breaking $1.29. tom: a real pullback in sterling, was watching here. i would also note the turkish 7.4. from a
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it has been an ugly week for mr. erdogan battling the weak turkish lira. amrita sen joins us with energy aspects. terrific microeconomic analysis of what is going on in oil, but also the broader picture as well. how do you respond to the certitude of the pundits that this is just a bet on weaker global demand and a weaker global economy? do you buy it? amrita: i would say that we really never were talking about a strong global economy. if anything, the price of oil is finally catching up to fundamentals. we talked about this not that long ago, the contango in the markets where the futures price was telling us that it was going to be higher. the physical market was oversupplied when opec started to ease cuts, and u.s. production was coming back a little bit.
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but the price hasn't moved. that has to do with the fact that the fed has kept interest rates so low, and the dollar was extremely weak. drives prices lower. this should help accelerate inventory drawdowns, which we have already seen, but they should get bigger. that's the only way we will rebalance this market. lisa: try and come up with a narrative to understand whether the moves in the equity market have been consistent with what we are seeing in oil. oil seems to be moving somewhat indefinitely of the stock selloff we saw, the nasdaq in particular, over the past three sessions, particular to do with opec cutting prices. do you find the weak demand in oil to be consistent with the recovery in equity prices? amrita: i would say the
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problematic thing with oil right now, the headwind is that demand is recovering, like you say. you can see that in the equity markets, but also whether it be home sale data, broader macro data in china, other parts of the world recovering. but it is transportation that is the weakness. be hard to get people moving in the same way. yes, traffic data is picking up, but flying, jet fuel demand remains at record lows still. that is why i think it is broadly, but once you have run down the inventories and once you do get the demand recovery, which is a good year or two away, then things would probably correlate a lot better. lisa: this is crucial, the idea that the economy can recover without people flying and traveling around today degree they did in the past. how low can oil prices go, and
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your view? not think the recovery will take us back to pre-covid levels. we should be very clear on that. we are recovering, but it is .hat last bit we will not be able to go back to 2019 levels. i don't think there is much more left in theollars correction. i think around $35, we should find a floor. i think u.s. production, the recovery we are seeing is very gradual. i think as a result of that, you will probably start to see more pressure generally on those supplies, which again helps in the rebalancing. tom: is this pullback advantageous for saudi arabia to provide new discipline to opec+? amrita: i think it is not going to do them any harm, especially given they have been trying to
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get lines up. nigeria have been picking up compliance. some has been slipping of late, but that is very much the focus, and while saudi arabia would like prices to be around $40, i think this does play to their advantage in the short term. tom: what do you see next? on the calendar, what does will do next? s tota: for now it ha consolidate, and unfortunately it will be pretty boring. it is really not going to get exciting, and prices can't move higher. i think the next big thing has to come from the winter demand side. that is what i think a lot of people are focusing on because the macro picture is gradually improving, but that is very gradual. there are risks around the second wave and lockdowns around the world. jonathan: love catching up with
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you. great to catch up with you this morning. amrita sen of energy aspects, thank you. maybe the purest play on pure supply-demand fundamentals, crude. everything else heavily distorted by central banks and the like. tom: absolutely. jonathan: we saw that play out aggressively in the last several months. tom: that's precisely as you say. it is removed from fiscal and monetary debate. removed here is the bond market. the 30e bit of risk on, year bond up a basis point. the 10 year yield up a basis point as well. nevertheless, and improving take from where we were a few hours ago. a messy road to nowhere, and write back to where we started. lisa: hard to understand the dynamic given the record supply, the record issuance we are seeing from the treasury department at the same time that people are expecting slower growth. i was really interested in what
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jeff gundlach had to say last night. basically, people were too optimistic, at least in the prices expressed their, about inflation to one forward. that prices are deflationary. very strange dynamic to get your hands around right now. jonathan: a conversation we can continue with omar aguilar, schwab chief investment officer. he will be joining us. stateside going into the opening bell, about 95 minutes away, equity futures bouncing back after yesterday's losses. futures positive on the s&p 500, up 0.8%. nicely positive on the nasdaq as well. treasury yields now off about a basis point on the 10 year. your 10 year yield is 0.69%. in foreign exchange, i think tomorrow is going to be fascinating for ecb president christine lagarde. $1.1765.
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if you don't like a strong euro, what are you going to do about it, and when are you going to do something about it? that is tomorrow's story. from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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>> longer-term is not looking good right now in terms of support for consumption. >> this economy is dynamic, but not dynamic enough given the shock it has received. >> there's a different correction then we have seen in the past. >> any shock higher in yields is when i see the fed putting a lid on how high yields can go. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a spirited wednesday on "bloomberg surve


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