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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  September 17, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> the data quality has been deteriorating for years, but really bad during this crisis. >> this v-shaped reaction or recovery is not going to happen. >> inflation could come back faster and harder than anyone is expecting. >> as much as i appreciate everything the fed is doing, i'm not sure they have the tools to really let inflation rise. >> austerity does not work. you can't shrink your way to growth. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with john king, and lisa abramowicz. >> from the -- from new york and london, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio area i'm on side tom keene and lisa abramowitz. i'm jon ferro. apparently some people are up each with chairman powell and fed decision. tom: absolutely. i want to say this because it is so important, i think it was underplayed yesterday how saw thely odd -- we
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valley yesterday and bank of england came out now, and they look like a normal central bank, versus the rationalization we saw for decision off 300 out points and down we went as the press conference went on. jon: don't you think it is absolutely ridiculous? allow me some time here. the chairman of the federal forrve show the forecast 2023. all of the economists turned around and said i thought you were going to target africa -- target inflation to percent but nothing north of that's. i will draw the line from kick tricks. they said please, can i have some more. the only one that matters are the forecasts. jon: yes, -- tom: yes, and i alluded to morning america, i don't know
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how you get to morning america that was perceived in 2023. mickey was great, it had flout the best question at the press conference. jon: every single news conference. tom: not all. jon: futures down. lisa abramowicz, claims in america. lisa: we will be getting jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. curious to see the integrity of the data. that will be a major focus as we see a decline in the total number of jobless claims. at 8:30 a.m., august housing starts. is really hot housing market hunkering down for an all-cash on-site -- sight unseen. a nancy pelosi will be giving a press conference, talking about money for coronavirus testing, but the focus is on fiscal stimulus and her approach to holding out for more money. president trump saying he
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supports the bigger numbers yesterday, the rift in the republican party is growing. jon: this is what the federal reserve and bank of england avenue in common, both institutions held hostage a fiscal policy. we will talk about the fed in a moment. the bank of england headlines crossing the rate unchanged. the asset purchase target unchanged. sterling, a little new guidance. the bank of england will not try to do significant progress on its inflation goal. guy johnson joins us to break it down. good morning to you, guy. guy: that actually made me smile because the store in the u.k. is not about raising rates, it's about cutting rates. the market expect we see additional qe in november, and there is a growing expectation we will see rates being cut possibly into negative territory. remember now -- we could see a significant move
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below that. at bank of america says we could see 50 basis points negative. the curve over the last few weeks has been stopping the increasing likelihood of a cut. tom: significant progress and i smiled too. jon ferro, this is the heart of the matter that guy johnson is looking at with what michael mckee was looking at yesterday. barrage almostal of the vector to higher inflation. do we change policy as the vector shifts? do we change policy is the vector moves up? kashkari tot like see the inflation? did i say that ok? jon: i think you did pretty well. i had a conversation with the one similar terry between the -- one similarity and guy went straight to the key difference, and that is the headline right now. the bank of england discussed
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the effective rates of negative test discussed the effectiveness of negative rates. over the last couple months, the governor flirted with negative interest rates. i would say they are actively preparing for its going on this, tree. languagek -- the has certainly been heating up. the governor left this in the toolbox. there are many things the u.k. economy -- there are many that say the u.k. economy is not with -- suited for this. we almost nailed on a certainty at this point, down for the economic trajectory we find ourselves with. the unappointed story in them u.k. getting worse. the schema soon to end. it may be extended, but the effects of rising unemployment will be felt, and you factor in the no deal brexit. the thinking -- that has been the thinking, the policy
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response to a no deal brexit would be to cut rates and aggressively into negative territory. it does seem the bank is warming up, getting ready. it looks more of a likelihood that it did even a couple weeks ago. tom: we appreciated. our simulcast with sterling on the move, a weaker pound sterling against the dollar. never a dull moment from yesterday. today, with some surprises in the language in the bank of england. across economics and the equity markets, mark old arta -- michael dart a joins us -- darta joins us. i thought the meeting was original. i was sent to michael -- i said to michael mckee as i was walking out of the starship yesterday, i wonder what allan meltzer would have thought of this original policy. how original, how off the was the fed yesterday? >> thanks for having me, tom.
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powell described with the fed it very powerful forward guidance, but markets look at fed did as more or less a nothing burger. inflation expectations did not move, and the fed -- fed's forecast didn't predicted would succeed in the average inflation targeting. nowhere in the forecast is 2% or more inflation. instead, 2% inflation after four years. discussing earlier, some were disappointed, and markets did not move. the immediate response to the fed is what you want to look at. there was disappointment with fedpress conference but the didn't move the needle in the way they hoped. lisa: what was the main disappointment, that they didn't say they would come out and buy an amount of long-term debt?
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>> average inflation targeting means if you have been below too, you seem to get above two, but nowhere in the forecast is above 2% inflation. it is a pretty long horizon, four years to fully recover is not a lost decade but not a speedy return to full economic health either. it is absolutely ridiculous to be upset in the last 24 hours. meeting 5 is the next for the federal reserve. i understand something happened a couple days earlier. --e surely, we understand mike, shirley, we understand they did not fire all of their bullets ahead of the election in america. >> that is an argument for sure. i'm encouraged at least inflation expectations are holding up, not sinking. the bond market does not expect the fed to get back to 2% inflation really over an
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indefinite horizon. so you have to ask yourself the question, if the fed is telling us they are not out of ammo, they could do more but are not forecasting success, then why are they not changing policy? i think it is a legitimate question to be asked. jon:jon: that was a question economists were asking in the news conference as well. i'm going to turn to cable and look at the pound sterling. it's falling off of a cliff right now. against the u.s. dollar, 128.98. we mentioned this briefly, five minutes ago with guy johnson, governor bailey has been flirting with negative interest rates. this is a bank of england doively preparing to negative interest rates. they will engage with regulators on how to implement negative interest rates. i would love your thoughts on negative rates, not just in the but across europe, japan, switzerland. what is your response to these headlines this morning? >> if the pound is moving down
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on those expectations, you would have to characterize it as an expantionary move. a lot of people say they are self-defeating, but if you signal a policy move and the currency depreciates, that is expansionary. all other things equal. the u.s. does not look like it is headed in that direction. powell is throwing cold water on its, and obviously, the experience in the euro zone and japan have been disappointing, but don't forget we have had many policy missteps in those regions where central banks lower bound a prematurely, and put business cycles at risk or fortified deflationary pressures. so you don't end up at a zero rate scenario unless things have been gone for -- gone wrong for a long time. jon: great to catch up as always. mike darda there.
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we will do nothing with rates through 2023, the message from the bank of england this morning is different. at theake a look bloomberg terminal, two basis points on a 2-year note. the bit of the front end of the bond market today, all about the prospect that the bankrate and bank of england going into negative interest rates. and bank of england actively very to do that off of headlines. tom: and a bank of england with a set of single headlines we see in white and a red one is an important one. it looks like a central bank headlines versus what we saw at 2:00 p.m. yesterday. jon: the bank of england getting ready for negative interest rates and the pound is plunging. cable down .6%. negative interest rates worldwide. a representative from sugars investment coming up next.
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good morning to our audience worldwide alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jon ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> with first word news, i'm ripped the group to. president trump slapped down some of his health -- ritika gupta. president trump slapped down some of his health officials saying a coronavirus vaccine could be distributed as early as next month. robert redfield said it would be distributed in the second and third quarter of next year. the president called those comments a mistake. at least one person was killed and hundreds were rescued after hurricane sally came ashore near the florida/alabama line. heavy rain slumped florida -- pensacola, florida and other cities in the region. sally is a tropical storm and could drop up to a foot of rain
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in alabama and georgia today. william barr says the black lives matter movement doesn't care about black lives. he says it wants to use african-americans killed by police as props to advance his political agenda. the attorney general suggested the issue of black on black crime is overshadowed by police killings of minorities. details of that proposed deal with oracle and tiktok are coming out. bloomberg learned oracle would get full access to tiktok's source code, to make sure there are no backdoors used by the theany together data on american users of the app. the administration has not signed off on the agreement. shares of the atrial software company soared as much as 166% on their first day of trading. at the close, snowflake had a market cap of more than $70 billion, making it more value
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than uber, dell, and general motors. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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will distribute the vaccine in a very safe and effective manner. we think we can start sometime
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in october, so as soon as it is announced, we will start. it will be from mid-october on. maybe a little later than that, but we will be all set. jon: a big disagreement in the last 24 hours and we talk about it in a moment. at was the president of the united states addressing the timeliness of deploying a vaccine in the united states of america. good morning to you all, ahead of the opening bell, and equity futures over there -- overnight taking a little live -- dive. the dello euro, not your headline, sterling is where you will find your headline. 120 nine ave of the low, down .4%. active engaging with regulators on how to implement negative rates. the bank of england, tom, a re-hundred year history, and for the first time ever, we are about to get negative interest rates it seems from the bank of england. tom: before we get to kevin cirilli, this will be a huge theme through the morning.
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and you are right, that headline is a real change. what will it do to sterling, john? -- jon? jon: sterling weaker. rate differentials going again sterling, the weaker pound. this is something many people thought governor bailey was flirting with. including myself. the bank of england is looking to actively executed. that is a change. tom: right after you saw the president's comments yesterday, the kevin cirilli joins us, our chief washington correspondent. as a range and -- raging debate on science. been one of the leaders in variola g, hiv, and the horrific illnesses of africa. kevin cirilli, tell me how science engages in selection. tell me how science engages your political world. kevin: if scientists have their way, it will not be politicized.
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there are still republicans and democrats who do not want the vaccination process politicized, but that is the pipe dream at this point, given it has been by the presidential campaign. there are two points i have made here, first, from an apolitical way, all of the experts and all of the policymakers from the president to those at the fda and private sector are suggesting, by the end of october or in between summer, is when the vaccine will start to get into the marketplace. they are not moving the goal post on that nine-month widow -- window. the second point i would make is that polls suggest the vaccination process has become increasingly politicized. democrats, from everyone from vice president nominee kamala areis and others questioning the validity of the first vaccine. opinionwon't give and
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-- can you explain to me why our science community can't get support from senator portman of ohio or senator romney from utah? kevin: it's political season. to go global for a second, when you have the uae signing on with , and china rushing approval process for the vaccination. here in the states in europe, the vaccination process has only been further incentivized to move along. from a practical matter, once there is a vaccine and a massive vaccine, there will likely be several, based on experts i talked to. they haven to that, the supplies and supply chain built already for once there is an mass vaccine, for it to be available. jon: you know when tom keene
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says we are not meant to give an opinion, he is asking for an opinion. kevin: and i never give it. jon: on your opinion, because we heard from chairman powell repeatedly saying we need more, are we going to get more anytime soon? kevin: yesterday, and are viewed tom reed, a republican from new york, along with a democrat from new jersey. they are the chairman of the problem solvers caucus and said they have a $1.5 trillion deal sets. a leadership in the house has looked down upon it, but they are hopeful it will cause speaker pelosi to keep lawmakers through at least mid-october in order to get to some smaller deal. i would note, regardless of whether or not this happens before november 3, there is a mechanism in the problem solvers caucus bill that could be and whatever large deal or many deal that happens, which is a clause
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that would say if the data from that scientists say this virus is under control, it will kick in the eight and fiscal relief will start to dwindle down. if the data does not reflect that, it would kickstart incentives to have additional stimulus. it is a wait and see for march approach, should this mechanism make it into the field. lisa: president trump weighed in, saying he likes bigger numbers better. how much power does he have to bring the reluctant republicans on board with a bigger number? kevin: lisa, to be honest, i think he would have a lot of power there. for several of those conservative members who are especially on ballot races, he is running on the top ballot on november 3. for those ultraconservatives, in a way, you have him providing the political cover for them for the massive government spending. i think that is why you have herds people like secretary -- have heard people like secretary
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mnuchin saying now is the time to worry about that massive amounts of money. and forr speaker pelosi progressives who are going to be able to provide cover for not the far right more moderate democratic members, to be able to say, you gotta come on board with this and this is what you need to say to get reelected. jon: kevin cirilli, great to see you. on all of the big things in washington, d.c. story the moment, what on earth do you do with the central banks when you do not know what the outlook looks like? right now, they don't know what happens with the package on the table and no -- don't know what the complexion of congress will look like come november. tom: i don't disagree at all. if you have a 4% growing economy, your fiscal impact is not that great. if you have a economy, fiscal has a huge impact. seeing ity we are worldwide, but certainly in the
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u.s. in the election season. jon: i think it's fair to say that november 5 for the federal reserve will be an interesting news conference. i wonder if chairman powell wishes he did not put a news conference at the end of every meeting, because that is not a news conference i would want to chair 24 hours after alexion, 48 hours after -- election, 48 hours after. lisa: how is he going to respond --it other than say i think it is fascinating the federal reserve comes out and says we want inflation, will get 2% inflation, and the markets as we don't buy it. jon: let's get to the price action. sterling.n that's where the story is for many in the fx market. the bank of england went from flirting with negative interest rates to stepping up the rhetoric. not ready to do it now, but going one step further. 118.03.lar is the curve is flat or in america
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with yields lower. from new york and london, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ so you're a small business,
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tom: from new york -- jon: from new york and london, this is uber surveillance, two hours away from your opening bell. equity futures lower on the s&p 500, a little more than 1%. we are down around 40% -- 40 points on the s&p 500. euro-dollar down about 1%. thing there.g it tom keene, preparing maybe, and emphasis on may be. i have a lot of people writing into me. the bank billing and -- bank of england is not doing the negative interest rates tomorrow but doing the ground right -- groundwork. we have to work out what fiscal policy looks like and what this recovery looks like, too. tom: i get the groundwork, but we are humbled when markets tell policymakers what to do. that happens more often.
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if markets look at aggregate demand, can drive all yields down. you wonder when they becomes negative. jon: was that the federal reserve yesterday, markets telling the fed, not enough, do more? tom: not only that, but the dow point20 points, a 520 from the enthusiasm at 2:02 p.m. jon: every time you mention dow points, i'm wondering whether you try to wind me up. tom: you got that's right. i got a tattoo right here. jon: dow points. tom: i have a tattoo right here that says dow jones -- jon: [inaudible] didn'te bill [inaudible] tom: but i was defending his son. jon: do you want to get our next guest? tom: lisa is going, come on guys.
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lisa, how did your world change yesterday with the fed meeting? lisa: i have to be honest, it did not. it was pretty much as expected i would say. talked back any major changes in policies over the last couple weeks. when you listen to the fed governors speak, they were clear they were not going to make any changes beyond the idea of talking about average inflation targeting and how that might apply going forward. i think they were slightly more explicit in that they are expecting moderate inflation rather than anything much more aggressive. what i took out of it is that that led themions woulde last time around, not lead them to hike this time around. not only see
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employment but inflation over 2%. tom: with portfolio management, this upset that we see and original fed we see, is it about single point investment and pricing yield, or is the only game in town along the curve where you are setting up spread dynamics? lisa h.: i think the fed told you we are not going to dislocate the risk markets. they are being clear about that. i think they want to keep real yield as low as possible, and buy low, i mean as negative as possible, which should clear the way for risk-taking. it will not be the fed getting in the way. lisa: if you take a look at what markets are saying, they say we don't buy it, you're inflation goal is a pipe dream. who's right? lisa h.: if you look at history, probably the markets. other central banks, namely japan, have tried these rooms
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before, anchoring inflation, committing to a certain target, combining with fiscal policy, and still not seeing inflation sustainably run over 2%. in my view, the preconditions are setting up for the chance inflation does eventually overshoot, but in the near term, with the amount of excess capacity this virus and subsequent effect has had on the economy, i think it will be sometime before we see a sustainable move above 2% and aggregate inflation in the u.s.. lisa a.: what you are saying does not go with the risk off. if the fed is committed to keeping it real rates as negative as possible and ping rates low indefinitely, possibly adding, why the disappointment? can you square that? lisa h.: i suppose there are some market participants we are looking for more. lisa a.: what more? [laughter] lisa h.: there could have been a
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commitment to further qe, increasing qe, to another operation swift where they are buying long security bonds, they could have tied the lower guidance to a specific inflation , we want to see 2.5%. they were a little softer on that maybe. i think at one point, there was a question and powell answered it with moderate, so there is always more they could do. i think they were somewhat explicit on that point, that they have these tools in their toolkits, will leave them there for the time being and are not extending -- expanding beyond what they have done. jon: do you think they are waiting for the election results? lisa h.: i think they are happy with where they are right now. the election is certainly one thing. they are waiting for a fiscal package. powell has been clear about that previous yesterday when he said we really need to see with the
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federal government -- the federal government needs to pass another package, which is keeping people going. yesterday, he was sanguine on the fact that nothing has been it will allowhaps for spending to come through, despite the fact that unemployment insurance has been reduced. i think there's a lot of uncertainty to calm, and they want to those tools in their pocket, especially since recovery by most metrics has been stronger than they expected to see. jon: i think we are into tension right now. is there talk about overshooting 2% but -- there is talk about overshooting 2%, but they are not forecasting that themselves. what is your take away? lisa h.: in terms of -- it is funny because if you look at 2023, they have inflation at 2%. it always returns home to that key level. they don't even have it
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overshooting, which suggests they will not be hiking policy until well after 2023, because they don't just want to percent inflation, they want something more for some period of time more. seems like they just want to commit to the market that they will stay as low as possible for as long as it takes. and this is an expansion of what they have been moving toward over the last several years. tom: what are you doing in your portfolios now? with nominal yield where they are, what is the schroeder theory? >> we tend -- lisa h.: we tend to be value-based investors so we look at the price you are being paid to take risks, and right now, when you think about credit markets, you are being paid fair value at best. the technical certainly suggests you should stay invested, and that is negative yields on
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alternate investment, that is the fact that there is a tremendous amount of demand for u.s. fixed income coming from other parts of the world, so we are probably more invested than , ifould be at these levels we were purely looking at levels, given the fed's commitment to stay at zero. but we are cautious in just looking at p or credit risk, corporate credit risk, because there are concerns with certain company balance sheets, amount of leverage that has increased over the last several years, so there is some opportunity out there. stock market has been talking to us. when you look at the fed being the backstop of the markets, where they continue to buy for the foreseeable future, it is looking at other types of perhaps spread products, not just corporate risk.
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for something to change really. lisa a.: waiting for something to change. in the meantime, as the prices go up and up, and the fed made it there they are not ready to change policy based on concerns about bubbles alone. when do you change investment policy, based on your bubble? and the idea that something may eventually pop but it has not happened yet. when thewe change price changes, so as things become more expensive, you will see us taking a level of risk down in our portfolio, moving toward alternatives like agency mortgages fundamentally in our view more secure, moving away from corporate credit. jon: lisa, i want to get to the twitter account of the president of the united states. the november 3 results may never be determined. this is the biggest worry on wall street ahead of the election, tom, that we wake up
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november 4 without a result. tom: i think we may not have a result because of the pandemic and mail-in that i think a lot of our viewers or listeners worldwide are aware of, but this is extraordinary. it's a lengthy tweet from the , never toin all caps be accurately determined. that borders on irresponsible. forget about the politics. that's an absolutely remarkable statement by the president. jon: i thought we didn't do opinions here. tom: i'm not making an opinion, i'm looking at any given president in the united states, saying an election result may never be accurately determined, which is a countable event. jon: lisa, i want to bring you in for a final complement -- comment on this. when you hear language like this from the president, when you
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already know from your conversations with your colleagues on what the big worry is on november 3's election is that we don't have a result and is contested. how do you contend with these comments? lisa h.: more risk needs to be in markets is the answer. .t's just another uncertainty i think it will take time, and as you both alluded to, to get an actual election result, and that is never a good thing for markets. i think that means there will be at least a temporary period of uncertainty and volatility in the markets. i think the fed will be quick to step in if things start to get disorderly, but hopefully, the sooner we get election results, the sooner we can have things return to a bit more normalcy. jon: lisa, stay well. we saw hornby -- lisa hornby.
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tom keene, the focus on washington, d.c. once again. days away, andng imagine as well, our next test in the next hour. jon: exciting for you, the cofounder of rebecca minkoff. tom: i need a new bag. jon: i'm sure you do, and maybe she can help you. that's a little later. [laughter] on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ we have the first word news. president trump says one of his top officials is wrong when it comes to the coronavirus vaccine. cdc director robert redfield for dicta the vaccine will be distributed in late spring or early summer next year. trump disagrees and says the shot will be available as early as october. identified employees -- is identified as the most prominent website dedicated to a
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conspiracy theory. on paid has put him leave pending an internal investigation. he believes among other things that president trump is battling a ring of child sex traffickers. which is harder to solve, the coronavirus pandemic or climate change? we put that question to bill gates. harder,te changes much and the damage that will be done every year will be greater than what we have seen during this pandemic. i hope it is a wake-up call to think what else are we being warned about? does it take -- what percent of government resources would that take? and holding people to accounts, even things that take a long time, we have to get started now on. >> global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in
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over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> and the technology space between the u.s. and china, it is decoupling. i think we have passed the point of no return on that. president onthe
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the relationship between the chinese and the united states of america on big tech, and we will get that to that story in a moment. i'm jonathan ferro and yield i action is set up. thursday morning, initial jobless claims coming up in 43 minutes time. i had of that, a picture of risk aversion, equity futures down 1.25 princes sent -- 1.25%. the dollar is stronger against everything except for the japanese yen. it is set up for a risk aversion this thursday. your yield is 0.67%. and mr.t until now, farrow mentioned it, i did not realize it was claims today. that is the craziness it has been on surveillance the last number of days. that's an important data point coming up in 45 minutes. is our foreign policy reporter, state department reporter, but is hugely visceral in the travels
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of the trump administration, including an historic flight with secretary of state tillerson, and number of years ago. he joins us now on the chaos around tiktok and oracle. nick, you know back to hamilton, there has been a battle on the cabinet at all times. how large is the battle between mnuchin and pompeo this morning? big deal. a steve mnuchin is lobbying hard for the oracle/tiktok deal to go through. it was essentially presented to on advisory body that meets tuesday. he is now essentially shopping it around, but secretary pompeo, who is more attuned to the politics of this thing in some 's reputationed on the line, does has his -- have his reputation. despite tiktok giving the keys to the kingdom to oracle on this
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deal, it does not require them to give up majority ownership, and that will be a big question, if you can overcome the president's decision on that. tom: you have been out front on this coverage with a number of other news organizations. where does the president feel on this? is it towards mnuchin or pompeo? nick: there was an extraordinary moment yesterday where he had a press conference and obviously had not seen the term sheet of the deal, because the reporter essentially presented it to him and said, listen, it is a strong deal but they would still have majority control. you say,f it is as i wouldn't like it. so you have the situation where it is actually a deal that is quite favorable to oracle's total access to source code, 25,000 american jobs, an independent oversight of the
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company, but if you have that issue of them retaining ownership, there is a question of control. the president could come out so strong saying, listen, you have to have complete divestment, so even if you have a strong deal, if you do not have complete -- by do giving up complete control, will he be willing? that is the internal battle right now, should we take this deal to the president as is, knowing he could go either way on this extremely unpredictable. lisa: there is a political way of saving this, president trump saving facing coming through with what he promised to tiktok. of bipartisan issue security. how does it dress -- address those concerns which are recognized on both sides of the aisle? nick: it's a sort of crazy moment after crazy moment. yesterday morning, it group of senators issued a letter to
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marco rubio, saying we need to address national security concerns. it was a tough letter that they all opposed the deal. later in the day, rubio issued a tweet that was far more moderate , saying he had spoken with secretary mnuchin and others, and the only thing that mattered was protection of user data, which the deal in its current form does to a larger extent do. , ted cruz forrs example, who are strongly they give upss total control of the company. it's a question of who will get the last word because you have folks like ted cruz, but then mnuchin and the whole oracle itself. ellison has been a supporter of the president and helpful to him in the past. the presidents may not want to give that up.
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lisa: that's where i wanted to go. how much discussion in d.c. is there about the bidding process, the fact that larry ellison, a prominent trump supporter, got the bid, even though others has been -- others had potentially stronger bids. some people are reporting that, like microsoft. a debate about this. folks, internally at tiktok, argue that the microsoft deal on its own merits would not work out. they say oracle was a much better fit and more natural suture. hereolitical undertones are undeniable. you have this going for microsoft oracle, larry ellison wasne point was -- her name thrown about as the president of world bank. you just can't ignore that in a in a -- in an administration where these come into factor so
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much. jon: i think we are exclusively focusing on the u.s. side. they didn't want to sell. [laughter] nick: there are so many levels to this. we are so focused on the u.s. side, the whole other side is, what is china going to do? it's entirely possible this whole thing gets buttoned up in the united states and china says forget it area than the whole thing is doomed and we go back to where we were at the beginning and the president says you will not exist in the united states. then 100 million users in the united states, who knows what happens. what happens to the app on their phone? their ability to use it, is that just gone? those are the things in the background. jon: great to catch up, nick. we love to have you with us, nick wadhams. we just never got a clear read on the chinese side of the deal
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on whether they want to to sell. that is one of microsoft's side of the deal broke out -- that is why microsoft side of the deal broke down, because they don't want to sell at all. they are pushed into a corner and we don't know how the chinese have responded to this yet. we don't know if they will go for this partnership either. tom: 100% of people i talked to say it is a total mystery. ives said it is a head scratcher. that is maybe the most intelligent phrase. people at microsoft will walk away from that foolery. jon: i'm scratching my head too , tom. a little more than one person negative on the fmp -- s&p. let's get our next guest. i'm having a head scratcher overage. tom hanson this weekend. jon: yes, his old club.
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we will talk about that later. schuurs down 43. if you are wondering what you're listening to, this is uber surveillance. -- "bloomberg surveillance."
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>> this v-shaped reaction or recovery is not going to happen. >> inflation could come back faster and harder than anyone has expected. >> as much as i appreciate everything the fed is doing, i'm not sure they are letting inflation rise. >> austerity doesn't work. you can't shrink your way to growth. >> this is "blooomberg surveillance." of the voices that are the conversation of "blooomberg surveillance." we welcome all of


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