tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 24, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
get tter. magnificent. xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. >> if the customers are broke, and until and unless congress acts, they will be broke. >> people need to be aware they're are running into some thresholds for growth. >> we are going into this weakness with 70 people still unemployed. >> monetary policy will do its part. it is not the primary driver. >> additional fiscal support will likely be needed. >> unfortunately, the politics are standing in the way of that right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with
tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. after our discussion yesterday with richard clarida, we get a
reaffirmation on the american labor economy in this hour, claims, and all of the various numbers that come out with it. forget about the markets. forget about the chancellor of the exchequer actually dealing with the united kingdom labor market. it is a question of millions out of jobs. jonathan: permanent job losses as well, and permanent shifts in the economy. that's got to be my big take away, government confronting the idea that perhaps we are seeing permanent shifts in the economy, and they need to allow that creative destruction, the powerful transformation of capitalism to take hold and maybe step back a little bit more. i've got to say, some people will push back aggressively against that and say this is a pandemic, it will pass, and perhaps we will
get some return to normality. that will be a debate for the several weeks, months, and hopefully not the next several years. tom: david kostintom: will join
us from goldman sachs with an important discussion on the equity markets. futures -15. vix, 29 point 31. stronger dollar. lisa, i look at what is going on, and count the seconds of the debate on tuesday of when they may actually talk about the american labor economy. lisa: and whenever he actually going to get that fiscal discussion in earnest in washington, d.c.? focus,n't seem to be the with the supreme court nominee sucking all of the air out. i am just curious how much momentum we have lost. the question is when is it too late to act? when do you get that more permanent scarring that is harder to reverse? tom: we will see. this conversation is so important, with david kostin of goldman sachs. we are going to get right to it. all three of us are really
curious about his nuance. in april, he got it right. he made a call. kostin went long. there has been a new wants to goldman's view. simple, now what? year has been about the medical situation. the core of the challenge is medicine. what you're thinking about the super forecasting project at the university of pennsylvania is showing, they have an estimate every day of what the likelihood that there will be 25 million doses of an fda approved nextne somewhere in the six months, 12 months, 18 months . various points in time. if you look at where we were in july, the middle of july, it was
reading 16% likelihood that there would be a vaccine widely distributed between october of this year and april of next year. 16%. that ramp to 70% by the first week of september. the stock market went up around 11%. check your numbers. that probability has since turned around and gone 52% thisdown to morning. that likelihood is corresponded with a decline in the s&p 500 by around nearly 10%. ismy message to you basically we have been trading the likelihood of a vaccine, and you can see that in the data. tadlock ats phil the university of pennsylvania with his wonderful book. jonathan: and you were looking at the benchmark for the probability of getting a vaccine. can you go beneath the benchmark? i think is really quite interesting.
david: there's a couple of key debates going on with the investor community right now, as related to yield curve and inflation, where the interest rate market will be. another one of the core of that is about growth versus value, and where should one be. the core argument is that people behind the value story would say whether there is a vaccine developed, when that takes place, that will allow the acceleration of the normalization of economic activity, and that means that companies and the industries in the sectors that are more cyclical will rebound and do better. that is the narrative a hind why to own cyclical's. i would reject that, or say that there is a better approach. it is value, not necessarily cyclicals, that is the better place to be. that is the first observation. you want to be in value.
and then the question is what is the investment horizon. tactless -- technically, value maybe attractive right now. but ultimately, if you are looking for a longer-term story, the secular growth companies that have generated revenue growth and earnings growth despite the pandemic, if we look at what happened in the second quarter and third quarter, the way i want to thing about this is if you go into the entire market, how money companies are able to consistently deliver double-digit revenue growth? the answer is you start looking at who generated revenue 2019, in 2018 and expected for 2021, 2022. stocks have been delivering and are expected to do so. that i think is an important
argument, so i think a two-pronged way to approach the market, tactically value, but ultimately is it a about growth -- ultimately it is about growth. jonathan: david, two parts to the argument you just laid out. let's pick out the first part. just give us a little 101, the distinction between value and cyclicals. what is that right now? david: it is an excellent question. it is the idea -- most people conflict those two. they think about cyclical stocks. a greatal would be example. ,ut then when we think about you look at the correlation, you see economic data getting better, what sectors and stocks tend to do better in that kind of environment? those will be defined as
cyclicals, high correlation with economic activity. value is about what is the market trading. multiples,k at it in earnings yields, different ways to think about valuation. it doesn't necessarily mean they are economically sensitive. so the message of that first part is we want to find lower multiple company valuation that aren't necessarily cyclical sensitivity. you look at the financials. a flat challenge in yield curve environment to actually deliver on better growth. net interest margins, big reserves because of loan losses, whether financials can pay dividends or buyback stocks. those are classically cyclical areas of the market, but it wouldn't necessarily be as attractive on a valuation basis. lisa: you reasserted your call
for 3600 on the s&p at year-end less than two weeks ago. if we don't get fiscal support in washington, do you still affirm your 3600 forecast? david: the answer is yes. 3600 is a target for the end of the year, 3800 for the middle of next year. in the argument is ultimately, this is a medical situation, a medical challenge for the economy, for society, and ultimately the equity markets. i pointed out that the level of the market at a broad level has really been trading pretty carefully, pretty closely with the probability of a vaccine being introduced. part of the assumption that i am making is that there will be a ,accine that is identified probably what most portfolio managers are expecting and what some of the forecasts are projecting is that perhaps in october, may be approved by the fda at the end of the year, and
widely distributed in the first six month of next year. the market, as you know, is forward-looking, so it will start to discount that fact. a few weeks ago, with a 70% likelihood there was going to be vaccine available by the end of the first quarter, the stock market was above target. that has obviously pulled back. so 3600 remains. i don't think it is as essential from a fundamental point of view of a resolution in washington. tom: jon ferro unloaded the boat of apple and amazon a while ago. but what do you do on a relative or absolute basis if you want to rebalance out of a tech overload? how do you approach the institutional or retail high net worth account that says i've made a success of it. what do i do? how do i move out of it?
how do you lighten up intelligently? david: it is an absolute essential issue that many growth portfolio managers are grappling with. the issue is as follows. when you look at the russell 1000 growth index, the top five stocks are about 25% of the equity cap of the s&p 500, but 39% of the russell 1000 growth. a lot of growth managers are actually in passive violation come out of compliance with the sec guidelines on what makes a diversified ritual fund because they have two great a concentration in some of those positions. the answer that i was providing to you, that framework is looking at which companies can emulate from a sales growth point of view those big stocks you were just mentioning, some of the big tech stocks. there's not that many, but you can think about paypal.
there's a variety of companies that have delivered on 10% revenue growth the last several years and are projected to do so . some have wide moats around their businesses. and i worked with analysts at goldman, these are some that we screened as strategists and that correspond with the fundament two analysis of the companies. that is a way of substituting for some of those large cap growth companies. those will still do well, but these are companies that are .aybe more middle sized they can move up the ranking to be one of the largest stocks, and that would lead to outperformance. that is how i tackle that problem. jonathan: david, good to hear from you, as always. send our best to the team. i feel like this show needs a disclaimer at every single commercial break.
i did not load a boat on those. [laughter] i amp partial to west thorne growth. , 9:58ace you will find me at a pub in the city later this evening. let's get to the markets. equity futures down 0.4% on the s&p. the nasdaq has been weighing on this tape, down 90 points. this is bloomberg. tom: you look like you grant -- like hugh grant. ritika: britain's finance minister has laid out his plan to rescue millions of jobs and businesses from a winter crisis. as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to derail the nation's economy, chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak announcing
any job support measure to subsidize the wages of people working part-time. the plan would also extend loans for businesses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
gigantic, multitrillion dollar package. jonathan: very little sign in washington of the spread between democrats and republicans coming in on fiscal stimulus. on this thursday morning, price action shaping up as follows on the s&p 500. a little bounce off the lows of the last hour. we are -0.3%. we will talk about that a little bit later as we count you down to the open bell. story atnd market, the the moment, there isn't one. market, crudety just south of $40. $1.1647.ar, claims,minutes from it's been underplayed in the news flow today, we forget that 800,000 plus is onyx of double
-- is on a separable. jonathan: totally on except -- is unacceptable. jonathan: totally unacceptable. the argument most people are making still, both republicans and democrats, we need to do more. the spread just happens to be one trillion sword -- happens to be $1 trillion or so. tom: cowen has provided real leadership in washington with piecing together a really smart group inking policy and reality. chris kruger has provided leadership they are, and he joins us now. i've got eight ways to go here, but there is a point where there is a belief in salvation by capitol hill. mark your calendar. when do we see salvation from capitol hill? chris: not this year. to election days day, when hopefully we will know the outcome of the election, but even before the tragic passing of justice ginsburg, the phase
four fiscal talks, the $2 trillion fiscal lifeline for the economy was really hanging by a thread, and now with the continuing resolution having passed the house, which will keep the government from shutting down next week, you really lost your last must pass bill to get a fiscal package done. tom: great respect for all of the people in washington working on policy. this debate we are going to see on tuesday, is your world removed from it? is it just going to be about our culture wars, about the great differences between mr. biden and the president? chris wallace is moderating from cleveland. he's announced six of the topics. two of the topics involve the supreme court, and whether or not the candidates are going to agree to the election results. debate ist 1/3 of the
going to be deeply controversial. lisa: for nearly four years, the abnormal has become normal. yesterday, president trump refusing to confirm a peaceful transfer of power should joe biden when the ballot. what kind of -- joe biden win the ballot. what kind of abnormal should we be girding ourselves for? until january say 20, that would end the term of president and vice president. i do not think people should be terribly surprised about this. recalling 2016, when trump won the presidency in the electoral college, losing the popular vote, he then established a commission on voter fraud. combine that with his views on mail-in ballots over the last six months, and this is a pretty
obvious outcome to where we are. when you look at some of the hard and fast dates as laid out by the constitution, the first one is december 8, when the states must make their final decision on any controversies around the appointment of their electors. there are really no hard catalysts between november 3 and december 8. hopefully we will know the outcome of the election on election night, but with the amount of mail-in ballots, it may not be election night. it could be election month. jonathan:jonathan: let's talk about that and what this could mean for financial markets. that is something the market is braced for. we talk about that often on this program. just wonder, as you look at the polls right now, does this scream tight race to you? chris: i think what is the real key here is going to be the margin of the senate because for
investors, for markets, a 50-50 anate is very different than 55 democrat senate, or even a republican senate. so i think looking at the senate margin is really going to be critical, and would point out that a number of the senate races could come down to recounts. runoffs ino likely decidedthat wouldn't be until the fourth or fifth. the minnesota senate race in 2008, which was the crucial 60th seat for democrats, took over six months. presidentialt the race. i think senate recounts and senate runoffs or something to
keep in mind as well. lisa: a lot of people saying it is a very close race, even though former vice president joe biden has come out ahead. are you taking any messages from the polls that perhaps is different than what is commonly believed? chris: you have the national polls and the battleground state polls. despite all that has happened over the past six months, the pandemic, the recession, social , the presidential race within the national polls is somewhat remarkable in that it doesn't really move that much. ,ome of the battleground states we have seen some tightening, but the storyline thus far has been that joe biden has had a pretty durable, consistent lead. the big question will be are the polls correct. the national polls in 2016 were pretty good.
i think it was about a 300 basis point advantage for hillary. , call it 2.5%. be real question is going to the battlegrounds and those rust belt states. jonathan: thank you very much. cowenkrueger there, managing director. equities are lower 0.4% on the s&p. in the bond market, a snooze. let's just move past that. euro-dollar, five-day losing streak for the single currency. that is a weaker euro. if we called it a day right now, euro having its worst week against the dollar going all the way back to april of this year. stronger dollar story.
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jonathan: from new york and london, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 8:30 eastern means michael mckee will have the economic data. michael: good morning to you. it must be jobless claims. wall street's newest obsession. the advanced figure for seasonal adjusted claims, 870,000, that is more than we anticipated. the consensus was for 840,000. now we have had three weeks of this new calculation. you can begin to make some comparison. the number we've been following, which is the nonseasonally adjusted number was up by 28,000 to 824,542. either way you calculate it it
looks like jobless claims are up. pandemic unemployment assistance that goes to the freelancers drops 45,000 to 630,000, and then the total number of people dropse on benefit roles almost 3.7 million. this is all going to feed into the questions about how accurate all these numbers are. we saw criticisms in california the last couple of weeks because the pandemic assistance program had something like 524,000 people in it and they have ng the roles and they have fallen quite a bit. exceptnia has now paused a new jobless claims because they're worried about how much fraud there might be in the system. steve stanley has been on this for a long time. does not think these numbers are very accurate.
had 524ur weeks ago, we thousand pandemic claims in california. last week we had 99,000. in great canoming we say directionally yields come in as equity futures deteriorates? jonathan: i think you can say equities come in, that is for sure. the nasdaq 100 is where the underperformance is. down more than 1%. there is a famous quote from a british economist that if you torture the data long enough it will consent to anything. in europe you do not have to torture the data long enough to find out that perhaps the economy is slowing down quickly. i wonder if you can compare that to the united states. is there an argument the improvement is stalling out or are we seeing a continuation of that improvement? michael mckee, as you said,
it is so grievous, we are not double counting, can i say we could even be triple counting? .ichael: it is possible the numbers are extraordinarily elevated even if we were triple counting. divide 800,000 by three and you are still above the highest level we ever had. data, whichive tracks small business hiring had shown a flattening, has shown a number of companies has started to drop in recent weeks. there is anecdotal data in richard clarida was talking about yesterday. we do not have a great picture. the numbers show a slow down even if we cannot believe the headline number. lisa: there is a difference between jobless numbers that are temporary and permanent job
losses, which is increasingly the nature of what we are seeing. can you quantify that and give us a sense of why that is such a big distinction? michael: what happened is a lot of people went back to work, a lot of companies reopened and found they did not have the business. we are seeing that in the service sector with restaurants, bars, they have started to close up, people do not have jobs to go back to. a lot of retail bankruptcies. stores closing and people out of work. this will become over problem, something we will look at on jobs day. the number of people and temporary layoff has significantly dropped, but the number of people reporting they have lost their jobs permanently is rising, and that is something the economy has to worry about. -- number of fed officials fed bank presidents were mentioning that. a lot of moving parts. michael mckee, economics and policy correspondent, a big help with us yesterday in our conversation with richard
clarida. ethan harris joins us. out of clark university in columbia, thrilled to have you with us today. a lot of moving parts. michelle meyer's studying this labor economy. what is the moving part that matters to ethan harris? ethan: you guys just talked about it. the problem right now is the lagged effects on the economy are still playing out. recessions always start with some kind of shock and as the pain builds we get second-round effects rate having jobless claims, even if they are missed measured,- are missed at this level is disturbing, and is an indication of the pain that is still out there. it is consistent with the idea we are getting out of the phase where we are rebounding from the
shutdown and now we are more to the grinding forward phase with a massive headwind from the labor market. we do not have to torture the data, the data is torturing us. forgive me just for a moment. i want to talk about the equity market. a little bit of a slip on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 breaking down about 1.28%. still the underperformance intact. we talked about the bid into the bond market. on a 10 year treasury, this is where things stand. yields in a single basis point. a bit of a breakdown in this market. a couple of reasons for this breakdown. it all started over the weekend. the idea we could see division washington, we do not get an agreement. in europe, we have a more pronounced slow down, maybe even
a double-dip recession. how do you view things right now with those issues front and center for the market? ethan: i think with the equity market you need to think about two different stories. one is there is a bit of a re-rating in the market as investors realize we are in a low interest rate environment forever going forward. a return on risk assets should be higher and a permanently low rate environment. the recovery in the equity market reflects that, reflects the fiscal stimulus and the fed in this low rate environment. now we are entering a period of tremendous uncertainty. the fiscal stimulus is steadily fading. it eaten the second quarter, and every quarter going forward -- it in the second quarter -- it peaked in the second quarter and every quarter going forward the money has run out. the physical package is
effectively dead with the battle over the supreme court, and even after the election we may not get a package. we are moving the patient from intensive care unit. you layer on top there is trade a likelyng, you have re-of covid cases in the fall as and youove indoors, have things like brexit in the u.k.. i think the market has too many uncertainties on its plate and it will be under pressure for a while. given the uncertainties, what are the indicators you are watching to indicate a true slow down that could be the backdrop for a double-dip recession? ethan: one of the challenges is we have a cottage industry in daily indicators we are using including the b of a car data, home, all of the other stuff.
none of these indicators have been stress tested to see how accurate they are. they are useful. they are all very useful, but the data was misleading in the summer. the daily indicators were weaker than the official statistics. we need confirmation from official data. we need to see hints the slow down in retail sales is accumulating into something much weaker. need to see evidence from the jobs report and so on. data arese timely looking closely, we need to get confirmation from the hard data. tom: futures deteriorating, almost two points on the vix, 30.47. we have to get back to the markets. this morning the chancellor of the exchequer talks about the united kingdom permanent adjustment.
do you and your team assume there will be an american permanent adjustment? there is structural damage to these economies. i do not think -- i think when we can recover largely back to where we started from, but there is fundamental changes going on. there have been good things. we have learned we can do things more cost-effectively. for example working from home. there is also a lot of damage. there is a structural component to this crisis. jonathan: ethan, good to see you. you look well. send our best to the team. ethan harris, bank of america securities head of global economic research. counting you down to the opening bow on bloomberg. 50 minutes away from that open. equity futures breaking down. the s&p 500 down .9%. all of this and extralight lower, down 29 points -- an extra leg lower.
down almost 1.5% on the nasdaq. as equities breakdown, the dollar breaks out, almost at session highs. up more than .1% on a dxy and a subtle move in the bond market. point,in a single basis .66%. the price action is there for all to see. , thei want to make clear dollar has now broken out to a new high. looking at the bloomberg dollar index, you know that folds into em much more than the regular dxy. not lows on bold. gold $1858 an ounce. i am crushed in gold. jonathan: this is a real issue for portfolio managers worldwide , where the diversification comes from. we worry everything is all one
trade. what you are seeing this morning play out again as equities breakdown, not a big bid into the bond market. we heard people talk about it again and again and it is there for all to see. tom: there is no question. bonds are supposed to be a diversifier. a 60/40 split. it is gone. jonathan: properties on fire. mitchell roschelle, a conversation you do not want to mess. -.8%. this is "bloomberg surveillance. with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. britain's finance minister has laid out his plan to rescue millions of jobs from a crisis as the coronavirus threatens to derail the economy. the chancellor of the exchequer announced a new jobs report record to subsidize wages of people working part-time. the plan would also extend loans for businesses hit by virus
restrictions. than 150,000s more villages is -- 150,000 businesses -- i am announcing we are canceling the plan increases and will keep the lower prices until march 31 next year. ritika: he painted a bleak picture, saying "i cannot save every business, i cannot save every job." fewer students are choosing to attend college, deterred by the risk of covid-19 and the prospect of taking classes online. data released today showed undergraduate enrollment drop 2.5% for the current academic year. for is the steepest decline international students, where enrollment dropped more than 11%. undergraduate enrollment fella must 20% from last year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
we have had two thirds of our workforce working at home for most of the year and it has been seamless. part of that will exist for a long time. i think we will have more flexibility and more work-life balance from that than we have ever had. i'm not sure we can go that way forever. dow chairman and ceo at the bloomberg the quality summit. equities breaking down, the dollar breaking out. later a conversation with chetan ahya, the optimist on wall street. we will be catching up on him in about an hour on bloomberg tv. tom: a lot of opinion strategists are recalibrating where they are. right now we will digress. we will give you the data through this 8:00 hour. the vix 30.30. and theat real estate
extraordinary suburban migration. no one better to do this than yorkell roschelle, a new business development leader. we normally talk commercial real estate, malls, let's talk about the absolute insatiable desire for suburban housing. let's start with the simple. what will it do to the school districts of the suburbs when all of these kids show up? mitchell: interestingly enough, the demographics, if you chart out the number of kids entering kindergarten, it has actually fallen off dramatically. my kids graduated from high school in 2018 and the beautiful suburbs. their graduating class was about 220. some of the classes entering the same school drastic were as low as below 100. there is capacity because of the gap between millennials and
generation z. there is capacity in suburban schools. where there is not capacity is in the east end of long island, where everybody flopped trying to get their kids to school in east hampton. those schools do not have the capacity. hearing westchester county we have capacity. lisa: tom, did you bring mitch on the show to figure out where to buy a house? out, dollyr shout lends is trying to slide meat into 6000 square feet. the make -- we make jokes to our global audience. this is a huge deal. there is going to be a vaccine. ,hree months after the vaccine is this the dumbest decision ever made? mitch: let's look at right now and that we can look three months from now. right now i think the renters in places like manhattan -- this is a nationwide phenomenon of folks moving out of urban cores into
suburbia, but the renters moved out. the sellers are slowing down moving out because some of them are having a hard time selling their homes and they need the proceeds from their condo they are selling to buy a house in the suburbs. the trend has slowed a little bit. going forward, i think the trend will continue. this is history repeating itself. the baby boomers who were born in cities across america move to the suburbs and created the suburbs in america and a lot of places. the fact of the matter is i think it is just history repeating itself. the catalyst was covid-19. lisa: is it because of the work from home dynamic or something else? mitch: i think it is a perfect storm of density in cities, access to school in cities, social unrest in cities that has people thinking about the suburbs, but i think you will find when you look at this over
time, it is a moment in time, but is a trend that started and will probably continue. there is a difference between a decline in rents and return to the 1970's where you have bombed out buildings and a crime rate that goes up dramatically. which are we looking at for the future of big cities? mitch: cities are popular and remain popular over time. is thing everybody forgets how cyclical real estate is. to make an analogy with the equity markets, if you are in most of august or september, you thought stockmarkets only went up and if you look at the last week you thought what happened. real estate is cyclical and ebbs and flows. overbilled supply relative to historical trends.
when demand starts picking up in historical trends, i think you will see apartments doing fine. office buildings may have a longer-term challenge, but i think apartments will do fine overtime. >> what is the financing like? we have noticed for ages mortgage rates comes down. does the mortgage dynamic plan to this madness? mitch: no question about it, if you look at the volume of finances, a huge volume of financing for new purchases is up dramatically. clearly cheap money is a motivating factor. just look at the automobile industry. what do they do when they want to incentivize people to buy cars? 0% financing. cheap money as a motivating factor for people to make the rent versus buy decision. i would say that continues for a think thattom: -- i continues for a while. tom: i need a smaller yard.
i am still using the old push mower. lisa: oh my goodness. tom: i do not want three acres. mitch: is that gas powered? tom: know that is me pushing the mower with the beverage of choice in my hand. mitchell roschelle, thank you. it is truly nationwide. lisa: key question. bowtie lawnmowing or no bowtie? mitch: right now i could get away with that. the heat of summer i put the bowtie down. futures -26. we are down to a true correction. lisa: there is a question about momentum in the u.s. economy, jobless claims messy, hard to get a full read. the trend is not that encouraging. where is that momentum? we are not seeing it in the u.s. economy. tom: dollar strength through the morning, dxy -- bloomberg dollar
index also moving to new highs. ounce, down57 an $11. in the bond market, even some .6642.t there, we count four digits, the roman method. futures deteriorate, dow futures -178. nasdaq 100 does little bit worse. the jobless claims, it was sobering. lisa: the idea we are not necessarily seeing gains, we see a worsening in the labor market this far in the suppose it recovery. this should fuel the debate in washington. tom: may be fuels the debate to the debates and we will have debate coverage from cleveland on tuesday. what an interesting day. particular thanks to our london-based team for coverage of the chancellor of the
london for our viewers worldwide , good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. we begin with the big issue. threats to the rally piling up. >> we are seeing a lot of churning. >> selloff in september. >> the combination of uncertainty with regards to the virus. >> more restrictions across the european continent. >> the narrative of the delayed election outcome. >> major uncertainty around the presidential election outcome. >> some are calling a rotation. >> the opportunity to rebalance. >> after an extraordinary run up. >> looking at the recovery process. >> while it has recovered off of the bottom, we are still a fair distance away from fair capacity. jonathan: that is the commentary, here is the price action. as the session grows older, equity futures off three quarters