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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  September 28, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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double-dip recession. it is not our base case, but it is our worst-case scenario. >> and investors are starting to show more bearish sentiment. >> was happens through difficult it ago through 2021 will be important. >> there are millions unemployed, but the unemployment is everywhere. >> we don't have to torture the data. the data is torturing us. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, counting you down to the market open. equity futures are up. payrolls are on friday. a debate in cleveland. tom: real persistence. you say,re up 42, as
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the bond market is locked in a jonathan ferro-like manner. in nice correlation to a weaker dollar as well. there is a really nice lift to it. i have to admit, i haven't watched the debate since kennedy-nixon, a few years ago, i think, 1960. i am actually going to watch this. . this will. be extraordinary jonathan: i think the ratings will be through the roof. but the bar is low for the former vice resident, joe biden. and i think from a market perspective, if joe biden was a stock, the stock is running high going into earnings season with plenty of downside ahead. tom: i really defer to the pollsters that we have. one of them in iowa has been so professional. over the weekend, the vice president had a wonderful weekend, pulling at the national level. but you really have to go to the thoselevel on
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battleground states, particularly pennsylvania and florida. jonathan: looking after catching up with kevin cirilli in a few months time. tom: is there anyone not speaking this week. francine: the fed speak this week -- lisa: and the message is getting consistent. consistent about fiscal stimulus is required to get the economy on track. i am interested to hear what the to's christine lagarde has say, she is speaking at 9:45 a.m. in brussels today. there is a tussle here with the data not necessarily clear or reflective of the reality, how much he will push forward with easier monetary policy and more fiscal. the u.k. and e.u. are also kicking off another week of negotiations. we will talk brexit and that is what we will be watching. this will be perhaps a turning point of whether we see the potential for a hard brexit. 2:00 p.m., president trump will give a briefing on the national covid testing strategy. don'ty question -- we
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have a vaccine and we will not have one for a while. why can't we get tests? up, spit into a test and find out whether or not you have the virus, and you go on through your day accordingly. why don't we haven't yet? jonathan: it is like brexit headline let in cable right now, ridiculous. more restrictions, potentially exploring another two-week lockdown. tom: i have been in therapy through sunday on the stupid penalty shot idiocy[laughter] , but john, to be honest, britain has fallen of our radar with all the politics. give us an update on where the nation is with this virus. jonathan: there is a huge question mark as to whether the restrictions announced last week will be enough. on the table still, according to many reports is another two-week lockdown in the next month or so, but in more severe lockdown than the one announced last
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week. we have to give it time. as we have seen time and time again, if you make a call on this virus, you look like an idiot five minutes later. so i will not make a call. but the worry is that there will be more restrictions coming. there is a real nervousness out there in the fx market on that trade. tom: here in america, clearly it is about the school systems as well. we'll talk to someone in new york city on that. but it is really coast-to-coast. keep talking, jonathan am a futures will be up 50 if you keep going. equities are gaining on the european side after a dreadful week last week. price action for you -- ross assets worldwide, beginning with equities, look to the fx market. is stronger euro and weaker dollar. that was not the story last week. it was a stronger dollar through much of last week. and the sound of silence in the bond market.
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hello, darkness, my old friend. the 10 year is at 0.67% on the tenure. tom: [singing] ♪ jonathan: you with there. lisa: what do you expect, jonathan? really? jonathan: i knew he was going to do it. [laughter] tom: that is an album from a few years ago. jonathan: let me bring in the guest, mark howard, b.n.p. paribas. tom: [continues to sink] [laughter] mark, great to have you with us. us between the noise and the news. mark: i can promise you i will not sing. thanks for having me today. [laughter] jonathan: good. mark: and like to use the analogy of the wonderful french open but b.n.p. paribas is proud to sponsor. the markets have had to respond
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to the noise. there has been a series of headlines weather around the supreme court or around the president's taxes and will come out of the debate tomorrow, but investors have pulled back, no question. i think that is a really important theme for your viewers, there is a long, nasdaq, butled by also the credit markets and in other parts of fixed-income and now, people have pulled back a little bit. september has been a month of consolidation and they think october will be the same, it will be bumpy, and tomorrow night we will get a full dose of that. tom: you were kind enough to send me a wonderful coffee mug from the oyster people, they are an absolute textbook small business. how bad is small business, like that business getting crashed right now? mark: it is a genuine concern. you might have heard boston fed
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president eric rosengren speak last week saying how some of the lending programs for small businesses have not had as big a take-up as some might have thought. there is a lot of stress in the system. you hear that from the voters and in some of the protest on both sides of the aisle. there is a lot of anxiety especially with the october 1 rule of support. we have heard the airline companies speak locally about their need for additional fiscal support from washington. the same is true for small business. lisa: a lot of people agree it will be a rocky period going forward. stanley,bull in morgan coming out over the weekend saying he expects the selloff to continue. where do you get defensive and how? do you just go to cash or do you depend on the 10 year treasury to do more than just flatline? mark: well, the 10 year has been boring lately.
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there hasn't been a lot of money going into that. people want octomom liquidity. that is a good question, april . that is a good question. they are year was made in march and april. they've made a lot of money stepping into the breach, exploiting volatility and uncertainty and turbulence. so in order to do that again, if we have it in october or around the election in november, they need pure liquidity. so i think you will see it in cash and money markets and in short-term t-bills and short notes. jonathan: let's talk about where the gap could be. high-yield spreads are widening a little bit. i don't want to make it a big deal, it is not insignificant what we saw last week, considering the fed is now a player. your thoughts on the cracks that emerged in the last week or so. mark: they were pretty broad. it was not just softening in valuations, there was the first outflow in high-yield in some time.
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we watched the credit derivatives market and we saw an increase in interest for credit protection in the options market, and we also saw a g.duction in the cdxi the emerging market also have some softness. there are a number of places you could see further weakening in the event that we have a lot of instability and questions, particularly around constitutional issues. because that is not a playbook but investors have much history with. the virus was a big unknown, but at least the fed could address that, the fed is not in the position to address a constitutional issue if that comes to pass. tom: what is your measurement of your wallet worry right now. based off futures up 42 is down a horrific 7%. mark, we are down 7% on spx right now. and my right, there has been a massive swing to a short
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bet? mark: i think it has been more just taking chips off the table. certain names, there have been some idiosyncratic short bets put on, but steam blowing out of the system is a healthy thing. i think the odds of a major disruption later this year are quite low and that is why valuations are still attractive or so full in many asset classes. my point, though is that later in the year, after investors have done pretty well, particularly since march it is just human nature to take some chips off the table. i think the lesson learned back feel somehen you anxiety, you need some liquidity. that is what investors are doing. it is augmented of the bid by quarter mdm in september. jonathan: mark, great to catch up with you. equity futures are flying this
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morning. as you might expect, it is a stronger dollar last week, and a weaker dollar this morning against the whole of the g10. risk appetite. the dollar is the tale. and that is the story the next couple of weeks. tom: here we are with the lift. but i also want emphasized all sorts of statistics show people getting gloomy aweful fast. alexander is out with a smart note and she says, there is light at the end of the q2 or q3 tunnel. jonathan: not just on data but also on policy, there has been a little bit of gloom around the policy story. i get the feeling that the market and federal reserve are almost talking past each other moment. the federal reserve is keen to communicate how high the bar is for another rate hike at some away. years and years the market is interesting in how low the bar is for more policy action. i think on both sides at the moment, they are looking past each other. tom: and this has just fallen
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into my brain. it is simple, the debate tomorrow night do we get these two candidates to talk about an infrastructure build next year? jonathan: we might, do. next,l talk about that coming up in the next hour, congressman french hil of arkansas. looking forward to that conversation. from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president trump is announcing it -- denouncing a blockbuster as.rt on his taxes fake news according to the "new york times, the president paid $750 in income taxes in both 2016 and 2017. he reported losing millions of dollars and has hundreds of millions in debt. the times analyzed two decades worth of the president's personal and business tax returns. the --ts are previewing
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to oppose the supreme court nomination of judge amy coney barrett. they are zeroing in on america's health care coverage. regardless, barrett's confirmation seems assured because republicans have a majority in the senate. unionk. and the european are starting a crucial week of brexit talks you. . e.u. officials are softening their demands on how a trade deal would be done. both sides are holding out hope's that a deal can be reached. a big victory for uber in the u.k., in london judge ruled that the ride-hailing service is fit to operate in the city. regulators had revoked uber's license to operate in london over safety concerns, but the company's cars were allowed to continue to pick up riders during the supreme court review. bloomberglobal news, 24 hours a
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day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. they only take a good step. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> totally fake news. actually, i paid tax. and you will see that as soon as my tax returns -- it is under
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audit. they have been under audit following time. the irs does not treat me well the president of the u.s. responding to the latest report from the "new york times" 24 hours out from the debate in cleveland between president trump and the former vp, joe biden. this monday morning is shaping up as follows. the -- equity futures are up. a nice rally across europe as well. last week is upside down in the fx market. 1.1658.lar is outside of all of that in the bond market,, to be fair to treasuries, we had a move up last week of four basis points. rangebound.ill 0.67% is your yield on the 10 year. and the new york fruit is $40 and $.34. tom: clearly the lift 41 points is important.
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i wrote a quick note to the team 1934,orning about -- in particularly for our global audience, i want to quantify that tax avoidance is a great american tradition. i thought the new york times language, the careful wording throughout their extensive reporting was quite careful and respectful of the american tradition. kevin cirilli translates for us this bombshell reporting by the new york times. polls havethe widened nationally. you say that at the state level they are much closer. does this news change the matheground state 1. >> what both sides are telling me is that the leading campaign and the trump campaign will have an opportunity to talk about their differing policies on taxes. both sides have said they want to have tax reform legislation
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in the next year. however, they want to do it very differently. tom: this is grossly unfair, to take one light out of the "new york times," and that is the idea that the president was reporting the revenue from his various entities versus the profit or income, down the income statement, which clearly was listed as a loss. these little nuances along the way, do they matter? kevin: no. tom: why not? kevin: because they go back to the 2016 campaign, and back to when he was an anomaly and not releasing his tax returns. he said open the on the campaign trail that he is taking advantage of the tax system and that he wants middle class and lower middle-class americans to have the same advantages that the wealthy and the elites are able to take advantage of. in contrast to that, in cleveland, this is going to
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definitely be something that biden hammers home on, something that they are definitely going to pick apart. news, iin the bevy of am not sure this is as monumental of a chute drop. but biden's entry the debate with the advantage. he has got to maintain that lead kevin, looking to the subject for the debate, records, the supreme court, covid-19, the economy, race and violence, the election after we have actually had the election, the peaceful transfer of power, how does joe biden make that report in the "new york times" comes tomorrow? what is the argument right now? kevin: the pandemic. i think based upon the conversations i am having, biden will hammer home on the endemic and on the point that americans are disapproving of the president's handling of the pandemic. i amntrast to that, look,
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not sure the president is all that worried about this tax story. -- the economy remains his top issue. it provides him an area to pivot to his strength, which is on the economy. that is why i think, the responsibility to the "new york times," it provides the president an opportunity to talk about the economy which is something americans are more trusting of him on. lisa: usually doing campaign season, the oxygen gets sucked out of washington. everyone just weeks to see the results. we are in a different moment, you can see that from the house speaker yesterday when she said she is working with treasury secretary steven mnuchin on an additional bill and negotiating and she has confidence they can get to some sort of agreement. how realistic is that given the fact that it is important that they need to respond to this?
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the amount of news flow out of the financial services world and the regulatory world over the past two weeks has been dizzying to say the list. you are correct, this is the time when washington holds its breath. now folks are holding their breath to see whether or not the stimulus ultimately gets done. congressman french hill, republican of arkansas knows that better than anybody, that the path appears to be narrowing in terms of getting that done ahead of the election. however, similarly to the supreme court, the nomination process over judge amy coney barrett will likely happen before early november. the fiscal relief talks likely will happen, i would argue, 11, when theer next continuing resolution is set to expire. tom: on the supreme court nomination, this is in the zeitgeist, folks, and there are two senators from california. should the senior senator from california yield to the junior
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senator from california on the committee of the judiciary? kevin: senator feinstein is someone who is going to be finding herself in the middle of these four-left -- of the far left of the party who are saying not to even acknowledge this nomination, as well as other centrists in her party who are saying that in suburban america, a law professor from notre dame, and someone who is the mother of seven children and a diverse family deserves to be heard in the confirmation process. from the sources that i talked with on the president's election campaign, they thought saturday's unveil was a political home run and now comes at a time which, quite honestly, the fate of the if will care act could be quite literally hanging on her shoulders we have 60 seconds. there is a serious question but it sounds like i'm joking, though, have you ever met an
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undecided voter in the last four years? kevin: yes. i know a lot of them, i am not even joking. [laughter] not even trying to be funny. i know some of them quite well. there is a street in american politics where people were deciding. it may not make sense, but between bernie sanders and donald trump. that is very real and that is very tangible. if you get outside of our collective cities, -- [laughter] best carsonent wentz of the eagles undecided? kevin: let me tell you something, tom keene, there will not be a draw in tomorrow night's debates. that is all i am going to say. that was a pathetic showing. i don't even have a green tie on, that is how disappointed i on then cirilli, punchy eagles. [laughter] tom: that was american football,
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i have tried my best to travel the country in the past four years, and have to say the country is so divided, i have yet to meet someone that is undecided. tom: valid point. but it is shocking. marty schenker of numbered news says 5%. >> investors --
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jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. after four straight weeks of losses on the s&p 500, he is your bounce, up 41. we advance 1.2%. weaker dollar compared to the strong dollar we had last week. euro-dollar, $1.1659. in the bond market, a bit of movement. 0.67% is your 10 year. the first half of the week about politics, the back half about data. tom: i spoke to michael about claims on thursday and then jobs day. he says claims are a continuing mystery. maybe jobs day will have some substance to it. right now we will dive into what to do with traditional investment, and private wealth
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management used to be a convertible formula, 60-40. that is dead. this withtterly knows citibank come out of notre dame. ratio,to go to sharpe which is without beta, based on a risk-free rate. you don't know the risk-free rate. i don't know the risk free rate. how do we get a sharpe ratio for wealth management into 2021? how do we use the traditional tools? different completely playbook both in terms of the discount rate, the risk-free rate, as well as the fact that this is an exhaustion of shock -- an exogenous shock. wee the pandemic abates, will return to q4 of 2019 earnings. the major thing in terms of looking at the risk within your portfolio right now is you have to say, where my going to get
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returns from? it is not from cash holdings and it is not from investment grade in terms of the french income -- the fixed income market. a domesticsing on basis. this is about traditional risk allocation and balance, and making sure this performance over the past couple of months you don't have outside risk in a particular area or sector. tom: what is the mood of your accounts? it has been an absolutely original 2020. i know everyone at citigroup owns amazon and apple out the eyeballs as well. but what has been the response of your accounts to bonds as a portfolio anchor? >> you know what's interesting? not just bonds, but looking at cash holdings, there is really from an investor standpoint, you
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have those that come up when they saw the pull back, they dove in full speed into the market, have a lot of risk assets, have been participating in this recovery. on the flipside, what you still see is substantial amounts of cash on the sidelines. we are talking about portfolios sot have up to 30% in cash, one of the things that is interesting is looking at bonds as that counter, the conversation there is how do you have the right amount of cash? you settle on that, but don't make it 10 times that amount. keene hasow that tom an entire mattress stuffed with triple leverage cash, but is it going into money markets? how is it being represented at a time when treasuries are no longer synonymous with cash holdings?
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kristen: is it that. kristen: it is -- is exactly that. the question is how do you get people to put that to work in an environment that is relatively expensive? we will go through a couple of them. one is actually when we look at this volatility environment, especially going into election, you look at the implied volatility curve and it is showing that everyone is worried about the certainty of elections, the spike of volatility. not even about the outcome of elections, but more importantly, whether they are delayed or whether there is a contested election. the spike you see in implied volatility creates a really interesting opportunity within the options market. one of the strategies we are using, this is not leverage, so
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i know options sometimes get reputation reputation. sometimes -- sometimes get that reputation. you basically buy into the market if it dips 10% below today's levels. jonathan: i think we've got a bit of a connection problem with kristen bitterly of citigroup. kristen -- the trade is talking about, that volatility is high and many people want to sell that volatility. i don't know what your thoughts are, and i don't know if you will share them right now either, but there is a clear argument that volatility is elevated going into and coming out of the election. some people are looking to fade that. kristen clearly one of those.
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tom: dean curnutt is on the same page. the question is where do you come into. i don't hear anybody talking about vol or any measure on the vix coming into where it was before this pandemic. no one is talking about getting back to valentine's day. maybe that is the ginormous surprise for the optimists. jonathan: trying to game electoral politics is impossible. four years ago, it wasn't just that people got the outcome wrong. it is that they got the outcome of the outcome wrong. it wasn't just that some of the people thought we would have a president hillary clinton. they thought that president donald trump would be bad for equities. we all room, that morning of the acceptance speech. all it took was the soothing word of infrastructure, and i think it is really difficult right now to discount the potential of a biden government, not whether he wins or not, but what it means for markets. still at this point, that is
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difficult to do. tom: it is. there's an assumption there, the democrats, higher taxes, the usual cliche. but i am hearing other things from global wall street as they interpret it. everybody here has a huge humility. i know i do. jonathan: and that is why, lisa, i guess we've got volatility very elevated because no one knows what to do with either outcome. the one outcome we know everyone is worried about is the single one on pretty much everyone's radar right now, whether we wake-up november 4 without a result. perhaps that is a risk coming into the debate tomorrow, that the president has a great performance and puts that tight race back on the table, that contested result back on the table, which would be very much risk off. lisa: every year, every election year is hard to game out what administration would mean for equities, but it is not just the election. you have the virus picking up in different places, the idea of a contested election, and
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president trump, if he performs well, could create even more volatility. then there is the economic data, which we obviously can't read. we don't have a sense of whether it is an accurate representation forward or backward looking. how do you get the conviction to sort of double down and take that cash, and put it into equities that are, by all historical measures, high-priced? jonathan: i think it would be fair to say that more people would have confidence if they had confidence in policy right now, and the one thing that is really blurred in the last couple of weeks is the outlook for policy. i mentioned this earlier in the hour. the federal reserve is communicating basically one thing right now, that if things get better, we won't hike interest rates. what the market wants to know is what happens if things get worse. what are you going to do about it? last week, when you started to see high yield spreads, i think the question is when does the fed start to step in. it's clearly not 50 basis points wider. is it 100, 150, 200?
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those other kinds of things market participants are thinking about. what do you do if things get worse, not a things get better? lisa: to your point, this week -- last week, rather, when we get the balance sheet from the federal reserve, people were looking at corporate debt purchases, noting that they had not been up that much, even as you saw a little bit of risk off really start to pervade the markets. comment, for a final kristen bitterly is back with us. sorry for that lost connection. we would love your thoughts on the market and fed talk because at the moment, the federal reserve is communicating what they would not do if things got better. whatever one wants to know is what they would do things got worse. do you have a take on that? kristen: i think honestly, the fed is being very clear in terms of their signaling that the needs to be additional fiscal stimulus at this point in time,
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and that the tools they actually have, it is very limited. fedink the market in the can be rationalized very easily by looking up short-term versus medium to long-term. short-term, we know these deadlines that are ahead of us. no we have the election. we know that covid has a potential of a resurgence in cases. the volatility is very evident short-term. longer-term, just talking about 2021 at this point in time, we believe we will see an economic recovery, that there are a number of solutions and treatments when it comes to the pandemic, that it will abate not any magical moment, but that it will abate, and that is when we will see the recovery that everyone is anticipating. i think reconciling the market and the fed is basically a combination of what is short-term and what is looking up to 2021 and 2022. jonathan: great to catch up.
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appreciate your patience this morning. we mentioned the fed speak in the week ahead. loretta mester a little bit later of the cleveland fed. then tomorrow, you will hear from williams, harker, clara clarida, williams again, kashkari. and then into october, williams, williams, harker. seriously, tom. tom: michael mckee is interviewing all of them. [laughter] he's interviewing williams three times in a row or something. jonathan: hopefully on this program. tom: i don't know. we are all going to listen. somehow, the lead theme will somehow be the cry for fiscal support. jonathan: bullard i don't see on the list. maybe they are all out in force to drown out the noise that st. louis fed president bullard made last week.
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coming up on the program, lale topcuoglo, johcm portfolio manager. i can tell tom what's to say something. just get it out there. what do you want to say? tom: i don't know. i've got to leave early. i've got therapy. penalty shot therapy. what a stupid sport, jon. jon, change the rules. jonathan: ok. tom: it's dumb. jonathan: we'll talk about it in a minute. i don't know why i asked. this is bloomberg. the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a blockbuster report says president trump paid just $750 in u.s. income taxes in 2016 and 2017. according to "the new york times," the president reported losing millions of dollars on his golf courses, and reportedly has hundreds of millions of debt that will come due in the next few years. the president of the report fake news, but didn't offer any specifics. senate republicans have signaled
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there will be a quick confirmation process of supreme court nominee amy coney barrett. hearings will begin in two weeks, and president trump is optimistic that she could be seated on the high court before election day, november 3. joe bidenlls show maintaining his lead over president trump nationally. other surveys show biden ahead in key swing states and close behind in others. -- the siena college candidates square off in their first debate tomorrow. almost 200,000 people in northern california had their power cut because of the threat of wildfires. pg&e is trying to keep its powerlines from starting new blazes. the utility went bankrupt last year after its equipment ignited catastrophic wildfires. wildfires have burned thousands of acres in california over the past month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ jonathan: you're getting a bounce this monday morning. from london and new york, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. you are listening to
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"bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. advancing almost 1.3%. the move in europe, though. the dax, the equity benchmark in frank for it, germany, after getting shredded last week, we come back and get -- come back of it. you see it reflected in the euro, too. tom: the guy at deutsche bank over to commerzbank, that helped, right? jonathan: i guess to some degree. the hsbc move really helps on the ftse this morning, up by 1.5%. but clearly the concern was there for all to see on a policy outlook, on covid restrictions. we said at this time last week, happy talk in europe is over. i don't that this bounce brings the happy talk back. to happy talk is still behind us. tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and blumer television -- and bloomberg
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television. a nice rebound in sterling as well. this conversation goes somewhere in the vicinity of 12 ways. michael mckee is our economic this -- is our economics and policy correspondent. i am sure that jon and lisa are going to go eight different ways here, but i am going to go 14.7, 13.3, 11.1, and the miracle survey this friday of an unemployment rate going 10.2% down to 8.2%. that's pretty good, isn't it? michael:michael: is a lot better than people expected. changed fed has their forecast of where we will be, but still below where we were in february, and in the middle of the range of where we were after the great financial crisis. still 11 million people out of jobs, so there is an impact on the economy. tom: how do different fed speakers talk about this this
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week? i know they will talk theory mumbo-jumbo, but the vector here is superb. yes, but now we start to see the economy slow down, and forecasts are that we see the unemployment rate stabilize maybe a little bit. the forecast for friday is that it goes down by 1/0, but at this point -- by 1/10, but at this point we are concerned about october because coming up on wednesday, the airlines are going to start letting go tens of thousands of people. they had to keep them on their payrolls to get their loan from the government. that expires on wednesday, so we could see big job losses in the month of october, and the fed is aware of that, and they are very concerned about where the economy goes from here. jonathan: let's talk about that concern and where they follow through. they've been very concerned about what they wouldn't do if things get better. if you've got a decent idea of what they can do -- have you got a decent idea of what they can do if things get worse?
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michael: there isn't much they can do, and they admit that. they can push down interest rates. that's the tool they have. they can jawbone, but the public probably isn't going to make any changes in their spending patterns because of that. at this point, their hope is on the fiscal side. you mentioned in your last segment about credit spreads starting to rise. moreed can buy a few corporate bonds, may be pushed on the spread a little bit, but at this point rates are where they are, and that is where they are going to stay. lisa: meanwhile, they keep talking about trying to get inflation up. are they measuring inflation right at a time when, if you go buy a bike, the prices have gone up dramatically. michael: that's always one of the questions about inflation, especially the idea of substitution. do you buy something else because you can't afford what
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you wanted to buy? we are probably going to see some inflation out there because of energy prices or home prices at some point or another. the question is, do we get a sustained move across a lot of categories of products? until we get the unemployment rate down significantly, that is probably not going to happen. they are talking about getting inflation up to 2%, but they also recognize that is going to take three or four years when you look at their last economic forecasts for 2023. they only saw 2%, not above it. tom: was it your reading -- and he is our greatest reader -- do you assume stimulus after the election? is the fed going to go through the ballet assuming, maybe like the rest of us, that whoever wins, we are going to get some big package? michael: i'm not sure. i think if joe biden wins, you will get a stimulus package in january or in february, given that he doesn't take office
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until the 20th. but if the president wins, there is much more reluctance on the republican side to spend a significant amount of money. remember, we are going to have the supreme court fight picking up a lot of the oxygen. so do they get something done by the end of the year? it isn't clear that it is necessarily going to happen. if we do see the unemployment rate fall, if we see the economy pick up more momentum, that might take away some of the imperative in washington. lisa: we had jon ferro listing all of the fed speakers, and it is basically a barred been a felt speak -- basically a bombardment of fed speak. they are edifying this feeling that they can no longer act as the pressure for markets without some kind of increase in economic activity. is that accurate, given the fact that it is unclear what more they could do to stimulate the economy, and frankly even the markets? michael: they would like the focus to be on washington and the fiscal side at this point,
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and they will probably make that point as they go along this week with a lot of fed speak because the fed is essentially in the stimulus standpoint somewhat out of weapons. they can try to push down on real rates, but at this point, no one is investing, so it doesn't really matter. they need to get money in the hands of consumers, and nobody is talking about helicopter money at this point. jonathan: i am sure chairman powell and vice chair clarida are thrilled with jim bullard of the st. louis fed after his performance. [laughter] lisa: that is sarcasm. jonathan: michael mckee, bloomberg economics and policy correspondent. isn't that always the problem? it is the one that speaks a little bit more differently that generates the most headlines. pretty much everyone said the same thing, apart for one on fiscal policy. tom: you wonder, are they over speaking? is there over communication? jonathan: i don't think we need to wonder. i think we know. tom: i frankly find it of zero
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value. every once in a while, mckee will ask a good question, and it's like, that's interesting. jonathan: but given chairman powell's performance over the last couple of years, there's been some people who have felt the need potentially to come out and clean up the message a little bit. so there is an argument the other way, that if you just left it to chairman powell, it wouldn't be sufficient. don't think we can put chairman powell in the same bucket as the former ecb president mario draghi. it is a different story at the fed. tom: that's fair, but how many people are speaking in the next 48 hours? lisa: over speaking is not the same is over communicating because it is not clear they are able to communicate anything that the market doesn't already know. jonathan: it is a point well made. let me tell you something. lisa: let me tell you something about communication. jonathan: coming up lale topcuoglo, johcm. their senior fund manager coming
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up very shortly. from london and new york, let me tell you something. [laughter] lisa: good lord. jonathan: tom keene -- tom: just get rid of the whole thing. get rid of that dumb cameras, or however they tested. y tested.
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>> worst case scenario is a double dip recession. >> investors are starting to show more bearish sentiment. >> what happens to fiscal policy as we go to 2021 is going to be important. >> we know there are millions unemployed, but the and employment -- but the unemployment effects are everywhere. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and


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