tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 30, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT
morning, there is only one question. can you stand another two debates? rancor,he rage and biden and trump debated debatable points. mr. biden often turned to the camera and spoke to the nation. mr. spoke to the moderator. survived the debate, did you? no debating bonds, they are dead in the water. i am wrong, the real yield returns to -1%. shall, and shell, london near 9000. jobs day is friday. good morning everyone, this is "bloomberg: surveillance." francine lacqua hanging on every word last night. as a general statement, was london riveted by the debate? francine: london is riveted because we have never seen anything like it. participant,market you can get out of the debate
and say there was not a lot of politics or policy. look at the post to see who won, but the wider implication is that it was chaotic. it was acrimonious. think it is going to be hard to get a clear-cut winner, or certainly it will be tense. coverage in washington, driving the story forward to october 15. a town hall meeting in miami. first world news in new york city, here is ritika gupta. ritika: it was billed as the first presidential debate, but last night's event in cleveland quickly slipped into chaos. insults drowned out ideas. at one point, president trump and joe biden battled over coronavirus. >> he knew it was a deadly disease. what did he do? he is on tape acknowledging he knew it. he didn't give us a warning
because he didn't want to panic the people. you don't panic, he panicked. >> the only thing i have not done a good job, that's because of the fake news. better what you say, they give you fake press. they give you good press and they give me a press because that is the way it is. let me tell you something, i don't care. joe, you could never have done the job we did. you could never have done that job. >> i know how to do the job. i know had -- >> you didn't do well on swine flu virus. the moderator trying in vain to control the conversation. nancy pelosi moving lawmakers closer to a vote on a democrat only stimulus plan. the $2.2 trillion measure is aimed at breaking the -- steve mnuchin is still trying to come up with a compromise. senate democrats want supreme court nominee amy coney barrett to promise to recuse herself
from cases related to the 2020 election after president trump said the court might decide the outcome, and he expects it to break a tie. supreme court justices decide themselves whether to step away from a case. prime minister boris johnson will try to remain -- retain control. his conservative colleagues have warned him he faces a damaging defeat on covid regulations today unless he gives parliament more authority to scrutinize the powers. johnson also had to apologize for wrongly explaining the government's new restrictions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks. markets south today. -27 on xps. dow futures -244. yields, i want to focus on the two year yields. one point --
-.990 year inflation year, 45. that is a real reversal over the last 48 hours. with some deflation out there. the dollar, fractionally stronger. francine: fractionally stronger. as you look at support for sterling, there was talk with the bank of england about negative rates, the fact it will take a long time to study the effect it would have on the economy. futures are falling and sewer european stocks. ritika: we are going to -- riveted by us are the politics of the moment. in case you are unaware, there was a debate last night. huge interest in this debate. it was on fire. let's listen to selected moments. >> everybody knows he's a liar. >> you're the liar. [indiscernible] [laughter] >> mr. president, can you let
him finish? >> he does know how to do that. he knew it was a deadly disease, he is on tape acknowledging he knew it. he did not give us warning because he did not want to panic the people. you don't panic, he panicked. >> the only thing i haven't done a good job on, that's because of the fake news. no matter what you say, they give you bad press. they have the slowest recoveries since 1929. it was the slowest recovery. >> i paid $38 million one year. >> show us your tax returns. >> you just don't know. >> i know more about this than you do. >> let them finish. >> there is racial insensitivity. people have to be made aware of what other people feel like. tom: is broken. that is one thing we can all
agree on. it is so far removed from the modern debate and removed from the grace of kennedy-nixon. dashes is out with a book with belgrave called "broken." jeannie, let's go to your book. do you have to reread a chapter on this broken system? >> i very well might. this was likee, nothing i have ever really seen. you could hardly call it a debate because there was very little focus on the issues and needlingttack fast back and forth, lack of decorum. , viewerso many of us and listeners, throwing her hands up -- throwing our hands up and not being able to make sense of what the point of it all was. i am curious to see how many people stuck by all 90 minutes.
tom: ratings come out, i am guessing, late morning. and then a second look at the afternoon. i want to go to the process of the moderator from journalism royalty, chris wallace. we go to the wonderful steve scalise of c-span in a town hall format. skelly is the midwest deal. he is one of 16 children. he is total journalism straightforward. what is he going to do after witnessing this to help us survive a second debate? >> i was thinking the same thing as we got 15 minutes in about steve scalise and then kristin walker who follows him. one thing people are disgusting is that if the candidates are unwilling to follow the rules, they may have to cut microphones. i am not sure beyond that what
you could possibly do. i am not sure that chris wallace deserves all the criticism he is getting because you don't have interruptions when people agree to the rules. slider inine has a london, so she can cut my microphone at any time. [laughter] francine: i don't need to. we are on the same page. professor, when you look at how the two candidates actually came across, do they have to change style in the next debate? this was my big take away, sure, the president was able to stop joe biden from achieving what he wanted to achieve, but in so doing he does not accomplish his own rules. [indiscernible] -- needs to reach out to seniors .
women are a huge loss for him. [indiscernible] it is hard to see how last night helped him accomplish those goals. from that perspective, neither won. the president -- that said, these debates are hardly determinative and there are two more. he has got a little bit of time. does -- how do both reach that demographic? is it on policy? what do they care about? there are very few undecided voters at this point. i think the president has got to do a better job approaching women in particular. been aboutas always suburban women and i am not sure that performance last night gets that group. it was more a reach out to the base.
itthe same token, joe biden, is not enough for him to reach out. he has got to energize his own base and i do not think he did a good job of that last night. i think the president did succeed in making joe biden look frustrated and flustered. he resorted to name-calling. do not think that it's going to protect the democratic base. we end upl in all, with a status quo. maybe joe biden squeaks by if you believe the polls but i do not think americans feel good about this. tom: jeanne zaino, thank you very much. futures -29. dow futures -255. as we go to claims tomorrow, a:30, and friday is jobs day. technology, the 5:00 hour, the senator from tennessee. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it is not about moving the goal posts of monetary policy where it is suitable, it is about future proofing how we measure inflation. -- needs to recognize adjustments will have issues in terms of reliability and frequency of data. christine lagarde a very visible at the ecb managing the message forward on a diminished toolkit. on any number of cap -- any number of topics, we are thrilled nouirel roubini could join us. we want to save the american politics for a bit, i want to address the moment for europe. i must speak on the eastern
mediterranean, where you are in israel. lagarde, the disinflation and deflation is chronic. you have been so good over the years about the chronic condition. give us an estimate of the chronic nature of our dearth of aggregate demand, diminished inflation and what it means for all of us listening. severity of deflationary pressures lacking good markets and labor markets is going to continue. keep are going to monetizing fiscal -- for years to come, from what rf -- [indiscernible]
eventually, these negative supply shorts are going to lead us down the line two years from now to stagflation, recession and rising inflation. short-term deflationary pressure, but over the medium turn we have the opposite problem. francine: what does that mean? if there is inflation concern, is it the bad type of inflation, or does that mean monetary policy and fiscal stimulus needs to be paste? nouirel: if you have negative ,upply shorts coming from -- reassuring and protectionism, and other potential growth and increase costs -- [indiscernible] we end up with stagflation eventually. it is not a problem next year, but we could end up in that situation of stagflation. expectation ofke
inflation and boom prices and breakevens are suggesting that parts investors are starting to worry that inflation is going to be [indiscernible] does it mean for stocks? are we going to have a huge correction? nouirel: in the short term, there correction depends on other reasons. there are reasons now -- the second wave is still rising in the fall in the winter. it looks like we are not going to have a vaccine until next year. the growth in the third quarter looks like it did, but estimates suggested by the fourth quarter is going to be closer to zero. u could become a w. if we don't have a vaccine in
time by the end of the year. credit crunch in the the u.s.ystem with -- election is bearing down on the markets. rising u.s.-china tensions, hard brexit, i would not be surprised by an october surprise. [indiscernible] tom: in the time that we have, i your heritage in iran and italy. i want you to comment on the instabilities right now, and particularly the future of mr. erdogan. i have are out at 7.79. i do not know when it breaks and unravels, but what is your estimate of the political
fragility of mr. erdogan? of all, economic and financial fragility's. you have a situation in which you have a rising fiscal deficit that is still very large. the net reserves of the central banks have been negative so far. until recently, -- rates going down. economic reforms are not recurring. theop of that, you have politics of the region and it is no wonder that right now, given the amount of foreign currency debts of the private sector, banks corporate each would have -- balancel of the sheet effects and bankruptcies. erdogan is playing with fire. tom: how should israel respond to the legacy of mr. erdogan
wanting to be more assertive in the eastern mediterranean and in general the islamic world? should israel ignore it, or do they need to have a policy prescription? nouirel: [indiscernible] states, withulf the exception of qatar, art -- a the middle east you have rivalry between turkey, egypt and saudi arabia. they are trying to figure out who is -- of the islamic world. therefore israel has a strategy of supporting egypt and the gulf states. francine: thanks so much. nouirel roubini. of morganng news out stanley.
they are apparently looking for new london headquarters. this is a bloomberg scoop, through our own reporting. financiallk about our centers being halted because of covid-19, people not wanting office space. this would fly against that. we understand that morgan stanley has begun looking for a new major london headquarters. that captures fears that the crisis will crush demand for office space. tom: come on. francine: it is unlikely to result in a deal until next year. emptyames gorman, find an tower two blocks from queen victoria street so it's easier to visit with francine. [laughter] tom: i will do the real estate. [laughter] i think everybody knows me knows that i don't buy this death of a city baloney about whether it is new york or hong kong.
boeing will move all assembly of to southream later carolina, a blow to seattle and boeing's unionized workforce. not clear how many employees would be affected. boeing said in july it was selling options to slow demand. acquiring a significant footprint in online gambling. the board of william hill is accepting a takeover bid from caesars. that represents a 25% premium to the british company's closing share players -- share price. apple ceo tim cook new equity awards that could provide him with as many as one million shares by 2025 that could be worth up to $114 million. the first equity awards he received since he became ceo in 2011. he became a billionaire this year. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. focus is on the
debate last night. and what that means for stocks. european stocks are down a little bit, as our u.s. futures. i think a lot of market participants are trying to find their mark. dollar gaining. treasurers holding steady. tom: there is no question about it. it is a little more sprightly than yesterday, i will give it that. yields, .1211. that is in a little bit. row, lower days in a short-term yields. of morgan stanley, michael wilson. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,
can happen. ,rom ken when, biden can win there could be total confusion for not just days, but maybe weeks, or god help us longer. in this era were people distrust everything, especially the media, trump's voice is the most recognizable in the world. people can and then hear it for themselves. tom: bob woodward joining us yesterday. the book is "rage." bush v gore it was decided december 12 a few years ago. joining us from new york university. , every administration has its own character, and i will use the word dysfunction as well. you arerved the --
observed to the debate last night, how do we get forward on policy whoever when banks -- whoever wins the echo nouirel: nouirel: the markets are down in europe and the u.s. futures are down because people are realizing the election is going to become election week, or weeks, or months. the ugliest debate ever and the president behaves like a bully. they are going to go further down. right now, it looks like a banana republic run by a millionaire dictator who is planning an institutional coup. are that she says ballots are going to be fraud and he is going to claim against them. is going to stock the supreme
court. beginning of civil unrest, violence, if not civil war. this is going to be the ugliest election ever. --: ok. at harvardge here working with secretary geithner, working with lawrence summers as well. your time in the clinton administration, i think we understand where you fit into the political landscape. of fact is, the president the united states represents a large body of america who has not seen economic growth. do you detect a democratic party plan, whether the middleground is espoused by vice president the radical left, as mr. trump them? i think the plans for
biden are going to be moderate. he is a center is. centrist as aa running mate. senate,emocrats win the it is more moderate than the rest of the party. radical things like medicare for all and the green new deal are not going to pass. mastiffs --n for massive stimulus to pay for it by raising taxes on corporate's to 28 percent, reducing loopholes so we do not have a runaway budget deficit, rent -- ,nvesting in renewables investing in increasing minimum markets when biden was at the peak of his polls were going higher. his -- are realize
going to lead to stronger economic growth, and earnings coming from slightly higher -- on the corporate sector are going to be counterbalanced by a stimulus that leads to stronger economic growth. i think the markets are quite calm about the prospects of biden winning. francine: what is priced in the markets right now? how close will this election be echo -- how close with a selection be? nouirel: it is not just the u.s. election, what is happening with the u.k. the worry of a third wave, the risk of a fiscal cliff with the economy stalling. in the last few days, and what has happened overnight, there are things that people are starting to realize about the u.s. are severe. the vix for november and december is much higher than right now.
option done various types of stocks trading, suggesting people -- [indiscernible] francine: what is the number one risk in the next five to six months? is it a policy mistake, no stimulus, u.s. elections, or brexit? it is initially going to be the u.s. election because most likely we are not going to know the winter for weeks. you can have 10% correction just because of that. brexit matters for the u.k. and for europe, that is another risk. the other risk is that unfortunately, the second wave is not stopping. we are going into fall and winter where everyone is going
to get third wave and the scientists say -- we are not going to get a safe and effective vaccine. that is a risk to the economy. tom: thank you so much with new york university. hook hasmention peter baylor and jennifer roan of ucl really underscore on surveillance this weather shift and what it means. right now, ritika gupta. ritika: last night's presidential debate in cleveland made one thing clear, the two candidates can't stand each other. president trump and joe biden hurled insults throughout the hour and a half long event. >> everybody knows he's a liar. >> you're the liar. [indiscernible] >> i want to make sure -- >> mr. president, can you let him finish? >> he doesn't know how to do that. you picked the wrong guy. >> you agreed with bernie
sanders. >> there is no manifesto. >> you just lost the left. >> number 2 -- >> you lost the left. you agreed with bernie sanders on a plan -- [indiscernible] chris wallacetor of fox news trying to stay in control but had little success. the trump administration reportedly has wide-ranging immigration enforcement arrests last month. -- next months. in rates will take place cities that have sanctuary policies and is seen as amplifying the president's law & order campaign message. amongan and united several carriers taking moves to stay afloat. 7.5 --oans are capped at $7.5 billion each. the government equity or other financial stakes. impair -- tense
moments in paris, a violent explosion heard in the french capital. police came out with an exclamation, it was a fighter plane breaking the sound barrier. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: thanks so much. up next, we focus on the u.s. debates. we look forward to the of elections. this is bloomberg. ♪
taxes. millions of dollars of income tax. in one of theory papers that i pay $38 million one year. i paid $27 million one year. >> show us your tax returns. >> he passed a tax bill that gave us all these privileges for depreciation and credits. we built a building and be get tax credits, like the hotel on pennsylvania avenue, which was given to me by the obama administration if you can believe that. --the tax code that made him put him in a position that he pays less tax than a of thatacher is because he says he is smart because he can take advantage of the tax code. he does take advantage of the tax code. i am going to eliminate the trump tax cuts. we are going to eliminate those. make sure we invest in those people that need the help. tom: vice president biden
turning to the nation, as he did a number of times. i am thrilled to have wendy schiller with us from brown university, chair of political science. a really esteemed career studying a long ago and far away civility. at a sam ervin photograph with bob woodward yesterday of a time and place when mr. dean sat there quietly and was honored into the watergate committee. we have lost that persuasion and lost that civility. let's begin with the why? >> technology. part of it really is social media. is,ever your email system typing things into a computer is anonymous and gives people empowerment and takes the brakes off any restraint when we have conversations in person.
politicale the climate much more susceptible to people who want to bring negativity to it. we had negativity before in our history, we have had all of these things, but the reach was so much more narrow than today. [indiscernible] tom: the populism evident last night from the president, and i would argue it was his first time in four years away from the architecture of his events. with that populism, we have a history. she was long, joe mccarthy, george wallace, on and on. all of the populist voices. is the trump era sustainable, or do you look at the president as a one off? >> that is a great question. populism originated because it
was middle-class farmers, lower income people who said the people who are rich are keeping all the money and keeping me from getting ahead. the roots of trump's campaign are the same roots as a hundred years ago. the issue is we are a freer and more equal society. the kind of populism that came on with white supremacy is no longer acceptable. trump channel that populism along with his refusal to a deny whitefusal to supremacist -- [indiscernible] the suburbs,o win going against diversity is not your best strategy. tom: joe biden. he had a difficult ago, and then he became successful. proverbial high school football star. nobody knows this.
now use of fossil. a fossil.is he was born to represent those people. endocrine --biden how did joe biden and the democrats lose the working class vote? go with it. i think trade politics starting in the 1990's when the democrats joined forces with republicans on opening up free trade. inwas good to the economy important ways, but has heard geographic parts of this country and sectors of the economy. democrats never really looked back and never tried to fix those issues and help those people. those are now the people who are big trump supporters. francine: what are these debates about? there are so few undecided voters, so if -- is it just to make sure people vote? are they hoping to take votes
from each other? >> this year, it is about stoking and solidifying your base. is happening now in michigan, early in person voting. the voting, but a lot of in person voting will happen. it is also the votaries they are making right now. your core base out is crucial to both of the candidates. it also is about accountability. president left his own infrastructure, he is there. this is the time to say have you succeeded, or have you failed? it is an important device for the american people to confront the incumbent president. debateshe next two happen and do not get canceled. we want to see and hear from both candidates. do you win the
females out? given how acrimonious and chaotic the debate was yesterday , have both candidates pushed into inside, how can they back on track? >> the majority of white women voted for trump in 2016 and the majority of white women voted for the democrats and the midterms. there is very high turnout in the midterms. those same women are going to get out the door again. in that sense, a think trump has lost women probably. the question is, what do republican women in the suburbs do? particularly in swing states. iowa, georgia, what do those women do? did they turn off last night, or did they actually decide i can't take four more years of trump? they are a key block and they have shown their voting muscle. if they continue to show their voting muscle the way they did in 2018, that presents
francine: tom and francine from london and new york. yesterday was the first u.s. presidential debate. the impact on the markets is subdued. it did show the acrimony. this seems to be highlighting the risk of a contested vote in november. itwas down from 0.2% when comes to european stocks. the dollar is steady and the eurodollar 117.13. as we track the virus, bloomberg has developed a partnership with the leading authority on covid-19, johns hopkins has been at the forefront of the international response. every day, we bring you insights from experts in public health and emergency preparedness.
joining yesterday is lauren sauer, professor of emergency medicine. i want to get your thoughts on -- we heard a bit about covid and the response, and swine flu virus brought in. debate. were they discussing the right topics? lauren: the key right now is to move forward. i wanted to share both candidate's plans to push us out of where we are, one million global deaths. one of the next steps? what are the plans to move forward? let's not look back, let's move forward and learn from the lessons. swine fluke, we should learn from the lessons of past outbreaks, but it is not relevant to talk about that in the short amount of time we have in the debate. francine: one of the things i keep hearing and reading more about is, even if we had a viable vaccine in the next couple of months, it won't eradicate covid-19.
are we going to see restrictions in place for a lot longer even if we have a viable vaccine? lauren: we will probably see varying degrees of restrictions. they will be state by state and local to what is happening. smaller clusters may require more stringent requirements in those communities. as we move towards the vaccine, my hope is they will vote -- we will prioritize front-line workers and set those strategies forward so that we can move to "back to normal." francine: what can you tell us about the antibody tests that have been making the news? ofren: there has been a lot testing news. we have heard about antibody tests, antigen test's, traditional pcr tests, i think we are moving toward a better national strategy toward
testing. the antibody test is important in understanding the scope of the infection. how many people have been infected, how many people have those antibodies and may potentially be protected. term,st, in the short from reinfection. the antibody tests that were -- by the white house this week may be an inexpensive strategy for prevalenceng the locally and nationally. they are easy to use, they are effectivey are not as as the pcr diagnostics or even point-of-care, but we can use them quickly and rapidly and routinely. we also have early data showing promising results for antibody cocktail. is it early, or are you comfortable with the fact it is going in the right direction? lauren: it is early, but i think
it is promising news. it is exciting to see this moving forward. these -- can help early infections. they can be used for postexposure prophylaxis. if someone has had exposure but has not developed the disease, they -- it is exciting to see the news from regeneron because we think of these as a bridge. we are waiting for a vaccine, we can use these -- early, which is a good tool in the tool kit for sure. hopefully, we will see that move toward either approval or emergency -- depending on the data. seconds, the j0 and to vaccine as one does come i that make a difference? important to have
one dose vaccines because with the follow-up, we lose people. we know we lose people and that is a consistent way in which the vaccine is not complete. if we can have a one dose vaccine that can be rolled out and you get it any move on, that makes it easier. thank you so much for joining us. she is from johns hopkins. you can tune in every day for our exclusive conversations with johns hopkins experts for an inside look at battling covid-19. up next, more "bloomberg: surveillance." this is bloomberg. ♪
bull market that is under some pressure. >> we are probably getting towards the low end of this correction phase. >> investors are starting to show more bearish sentiment. >> rates may never rise. that is entirely possible. >> september has been a month of consolidation, and i think october will to be -- will be the same. >> if you have money, you can grow the
economy and the household. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, live" -- this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.