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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 7, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> the recovery is more fragile. buthere could be a dip, people will want to come in and buy that dip. >> inflation is going to mean dollar weakness because of that fact. >> the expansion is still far from complete. at this early stage, i would argue the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 21. we advanced 0.6%. in the treasury market, yields up four basis point. let's call it chaos on capitol hill. tom: it is chaos. what is not in the zeitgeist, this is really important, after
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the shock of the president's tweet, after down 600 points on the dow, there were two follow-on tweets. adjust too amend and the specificity of what he desires versus the senate. they want nothing, senate republicans, and speaker pelosi wants more omnibus legislation. jonathan: speaker mcconnell got on the phone to the president said that pelosi was leading them along, and that anything they agreed on would not pass in the senate. that is the story. the distance between mnuchin and senate republicans was bigger than the distance between mnuchin and house democrats. those two tweets overnight, let's go through both of them. the idea that he agrees with chairman powell, sure. that is political posturing. the checks for everyday
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americans, that was in the skinny bill republicans produced in the senate that went nowhere a month ago. we are at square one, and we never really left. tom: at the bottom of the hour, rudy giuliani is joining us, a ille confidant of an president. the 30 year bond gets my attention. jonathan: up almost five basis points on the session, and looking out for a whole lot more fed speak later on. lisa: we are listening to the federal reserve governors to come out and give us something tangible. at 2:00 p.m., we get those meeting minutes from the last meeting. interesting if we see anything about those two dissenters. people wondering about the differing opinions on just how good or bad the u.s. economy is. if there wasn't enough clarity, we get to hear from a panoply of federal reserve members. we get bostick, neel kashkari,
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rosengren, charlie evans. tom: jon ferro. [laughter] lisa: i will say, there is growing emphasis on any potential bond purchases, interest rates, anything the fed can do as washington doesn't act. at 9:00 p.m., we get that vice presidential debate in salt lake city. will it matter? tom: oh, come on. 74, 77. this vice president will debate matters like it never has. i can't convey the importance of this debate to introduce these two in the discord of the leading candidates, if that was ever to happen. jonathan: most people agree with you, tom. that is the talk in europe, and i don't think many people watch the vp debate. they will be watching this one.
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equity futures on the s&p 500, wednesday morning, looking a little something like this. futures up 0.6%. d remember a guy called -- do you remember a guy called phil mattingly? he worked at cnn. if you are trading on tweets that have already been rejected, i don't know what to tell you at this point. 8%.the 10 year, 0.7 tom: i think mattingly sort of disappeared like the cincinnati reds did this year. jonathan: i just thought i would get that name in. blast from the past. now, headn joins us of research at the blackrock institute. how do you process those tweets overnight? our assessment is to
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recover about 80% of the decline in consumption in the u.s. post covet, but the next 20% we will need to get out of is crucial and harder. we think we are on a good track, on policy support continuing, and we start to be -- and we are starting to materialize the significant downside risk. tom: it is wonderful to have you with us today from ottawa, with your work on the bank of canada and particularly your work with ben bernanke at princeton years ago. you spoke about a data rich environment. now asta matters right we link monetary and fiscal policy? day, i think the .e were a lot more stable
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you've really got to get a lot more data. i think now we are dealing with a much bigger shock. the kind of work we were doing back then i'm not sure is that appropriate. it is much bigger in nature, what we're are dealing with here. so you go back to the basics. i think it is really about activity. you need to get a handle on things like mobility, to get a handle on where activity is going. i think the fiscal story is huge. to us, it is the most important story going forward, both in agreementhe risk of happening, but also postelection, we can cease in areas that would be meaningfully different in terms of how much fiscal boost you are getting. we are talking many percentage points of gdp. lisa: this is the conundrum many people have. they are not inspecting fiscal
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stimulus, and in the meantime, the federal reserve could increase asset purchases and try to offset any slow down, at least in asset prices. do you buy that story, that asset prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, regardless of the fundamental economy, simply because of said intervention -- because of fed intervention? jean: it is getting riskier. we are of the view that as long as the restart will continue, we think it is going to take a while. you're not back to pre-covid , 2022.mid 2021 if we start to question whether the fiscal side is in place, i is some relief that can come from the fed, but that would be upsetting. i don't think we will be replacing. as a result, i think we are
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facing a bit more of a risk now. size of the the fiscal stimulus, the outright government aid as a percent of gdp that we are going to need? could it be as high as 5% or 6%? estimatesrding to any , without the fiscal boost we 2020, that gives you a bit of a sense of the big rolet has been playing. we have a gap that needs to be filled that is of a similar order of magnitude over the next few months. but we are talking about some of on the democratic side versus the republican side. the gap between those plans ,ould be in the order of 2%, 3%
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4%, 5% of gdp. to respond toed covid, but in terms of the shift towards a greener economy and out of the spending that could be coming with this, we used to be debating about 0.5% of gdp. we are now talking about 5% of gdp. lisa: if you said this is getting riskier at this point given a lack of fiscal support, do you trade this or simply look past this to january 20, if there is a new administration, and any kind of fiscal spending then? jean: we will need to see. so far, the news flow and the is beingd everything digested. if we were to be in a world where there is no fiscal toeement, and that takes us some measure being taken in
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early 2021, i think it would be a material change to our outlook, and as a result, we would need to revise some of our views on u.s. equities, for instance. tom: blackrock brought out the heavy guns almost a year ago to the day, with a guy named , you as well,r and you talked about policy coordination. what would be the catalyst now to get to that policy coordination? jean: i think we've crossed the rubicon in many ways already. in our view, what we have seen in 2020 is nothing short of a policy revolution. fed facilities, the corporate bond facility for instance, are already a form of coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. , with theing forward
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massive increase in debt we have seen and that was required, there will be forced coordination in any case because when the time comes to start thinking about normalizing calculus of thinking about the debt servicing costs that this implies will be pretty real. is a less tangible fear of inflation. ing carefulead to be in raising rates to avoid sparking fears on the debt side. that is already coordination in action. we think we are already in a new world. jonathan: fantastic to get you on the program to kick things off this morning. earlier on the program, questioning the handoff from monetary to fiscal. where is that recovery fund?
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still not deployed. in the u.k., rishi sunak pulling back a little bit. in the united states, no agreement. tom: there's no question about it. call it what you want. the fact is, it is evident country to country. up on thecoming program, lawyer to president trump and former mayor of new york city rudy giuliani, right here on bloomberg. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump stunned his campaign advisors and allies in congress by halting talks on a new stimulus package. that could settle him with the blame for more layoffs and market losses in the weeks before the election. blamingans had been house speaker nancy pelosi for asking too much from negotiations. aideserg has learned is
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don't want him to leave the white house residence, where he has been in isolation since monday. his doctors say he reported no symptoms of coronavirus his first night back. tonight is the vice presidential debate in select city. -- in salt lake city. vice president pence's team has agreed to allow plexiglass barriers. earlier, his team argued that it was not necessary. hurricane delta has come on tour in moscow -- in mexico. it is threatening to cause $16 billion in losses. is forecast to move across the gulf of mexico before coming on tour in louisiana saturday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mr. biden: i think if he still has covid, we shouldn't have a debate. by the way, i think we are going
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to have to follow very strict guidelines. too many people have been infected. jonathan: that was joe biden biden, the democratic presidential candidate, looking ahead to october 15 in miami, florida, the next scheduled debate, with the emphasis on scheduled. looking ahead to the opening bell about two hours and 12 minutes away, with equity futures bouncing back after yesterday. we advance 0.6%. in the bond market, yields higher by four basis points to 0.77%. we have been playing one game over the last couple of weeks, headline roulette around fiscal talks. the reality is as we start to play the blame game in washington as to why this fell apart, the headlines across the bloomberg. wells fargo eliminating more than 700 jobs in commercial banking. we have seen the job losses pile up. that is why the talks down in d.c. matter so much. it is not just a blame game
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ahead of the election. it is real. tom: under the radar yesterday, the adult survey really wasn't all that nasty -- the jolt survey really wasn't all that good. it indicates a trend toward and perhapsloyment a gaining unemployment as well. right now, kevin cirilli in salt lake city. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio in utah, of course, on sirius xm channel 119 and all the rest. i want to focus on the former governor of indiana. he has to deal tonight with the cacophony of his boss and his party in washington. how does the vice president adapt and adjust to the zoo back in washington? then:kevin: he has to own response of covid-19 from the administration. he was leading the effort within
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the president's inner circle as it relates to covid-19. beyond that, it is also an opportunity to speak to the conservative base, which was largely why he was chosen to complete this ticket for president trump. it comes at a time in which, here in utah, senator mike lee, a republican, is also recovering from covid-19, a member of the judiciary committee. with regards to judge amy coney barrett, vice president mike pence is going to be talking about it in a state that is going to be well-received received. however, senator kamala harris, in many ways now the future of the democratic party, is willing and ready to draw a sharp contrast in what many are calling one of the most important vice president for debates we have seen. tom: without question, it is the most important vice president will debate ever, just because of the age of the candidates. , is is so important here
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the vice president giving up going to the middle ground, going to the marginal voter, and is only going to talk to that base? kevin: it is not just the base, a specific point of that base. he wants to speak to those conservatives who are a bit put off by the rhetoric in the fiery nature of president trump. senator harris has to motivate the base and rally the support of the democrats, who are questioning whether or not joe biden is one of them as it relates to economic policy, social injustice, and that he would be willing to be that bridge president in terms of unifying the democratic party. and democraticn strategist i have spoken with tells me this is a foreshadowing potentially of a match four years from now. you cannot talk about presidential politics in america for either party unless you are talking about vice president pence or senator harris.
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jonathan: let's get to the main question, then. is this a debate between two future presidential candidates, or between two people protecting the top of the ticket? kevin: i would say it is both. we have seen the political jabs going and forth. they will have plexiglass, standing an additional three feet apart. based upon my reporting, senator harris is going to be accompanied by mary p judy judge -- mayor pete buttigieg, as well as mayor eric garcetti. , vice president pence meeting with the republican governor here. this is a state where trump is leading by 10%, according to the polls. but go outside of utah, and there is no question that biden has the upper hand. it is a bit tighter and some of the swing states. lisa: between storm from president -- the tweet storm
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from president trump, the collapse of fiscal talks, what is it like in all of this? kevin: confusion in the of leadership. first and foremost, this now provides somewhat of a timetable certainty for when the deal is coming. in the lame-duck, at least. then the question becomes, where the be -- becomes, will there be another round of stimulus in the first quarter of 2021? it is not a question of when anymore, but how much. if the democrats take control, there's going to be an increased amount of stimulus that is on the way. , weddition to the stimulus should also know that he did weigh in on the tech story as it relates to section 230. that is another dynamic i think that investors should be watching, especially as there
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does appear to be small common ground coming from the antitrust subcommittee in the house of representatives. jonathan: we will try and talk about that a little later. just a final word on senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. is that he was running the show yesterday? of theyes, in terms dynamics as it relates to not only fiscal stimulus, but to the supreme court. , think that without question fiscal stimulus is now punted into the lame-duck. the path is still full steam ahead for judge amy coney barrett's nomination process. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. kevin cirilli there come a bloomberg washington correspondent. it has been so quiet for the last several weeks. leader mcconnell stood up to be counted yesterday, and isaac many people might argue he's about to get what he wants -- and i think many people may argue he's about to get what he wants. tom: any number of pundits are
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calculating. i said earlier this morning, what are we going to get, another 3, 4, 5 polls today? the senator will have to recalibrate. jonathan: i agree with you, but for leader mcconnell, the priority i think is pretty clear. that is the supreme court justice vacancy, not the fiscal stimulus plan. i think it revealed itself yesterday. that just became very clear. tom: and again, the morning is young. we are waiting for the president's first tweets, assuming he will. it is 7:25 a.m. wall street time. no one is awake in washington. jonathan: the president might be. equities up 19 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.6%. darting around all over the place on the headlines around fiscal talks. let's get to the bond market for you. we awake this week in treasuries.
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yields higher on the 10 year. the focus very much in washington, d.c.. markets --rbc kveta rbc capital markets chief economist for sally -- chief economist tom porcelli. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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♪ jonathan: from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ,ive on bloomberg tv and radio you are listening to bloomberg. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures shaping up as follows this wednesday morning. we drift higher on the s&p, up 0.6%. in the bond market, up four points on the u.s. ten-year to -- 0.7735%. aggressively cutting the growth for forecast -- the growth forecast in france, and that speaks to europe really going into the back half of the year. tom: lisa abramowicz mentioned the 700 bodies out at wells fargo.
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this is crushing news, and crisis out of england. you are three nights a week at the salisbury, where they filmed that philip seymour hoffman move me years ago. they will close down some of their pubs, and they are talking about 800 jobs. this is a crisis in england. jonathan: they are closing down, not being shut down by the government. but effectively, the rules the government has produced has made life difficult for some of these businesses. it is a problem. i also have a problem with this idea of creative instruction in a pandemic. i think once we have a vaccine, people might want to go to the pub. i don't think you can make the case in a pandemic that you should embrace creative destruction because the rules are going to change. that would be my pushback. if you want to expose the economy to the rules of the free market, do it when we don't have covid restrictions. tom: what is so important here, and i don't know if you agree with me, the headlines of the airline industry, speaker pelosi
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30,000,about 20,000, the micro data, small businesses , they add up into those big job cuts. jonathan: of course they do. and if people aren't coming into london, coming into new york, if those offices aren't full, if people aren't working and those hubs come of the peripheral businesses that support them aren't getting business either. that is how these things spiral very quickly. on the airlines, i've got skin in the game. clearly, i'm in london, you are in new york, and we are trying to get me back. the hub in london is really important, and it is barely functioning right now. they need to sort out testing at the airports over new york and in london, as well, and they still haven't got it done. other countries around the world are getting it done. it is not just about throwing money to bail them out. it is about getting planes in
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the sky and helping getting them back to work. tom: on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television right now, we are going to bring in two short people on the economy. tom porcelli is with rbc capital markets. he has done a found model job of not only linking labor trends assuage dynamics, and we get a jolt out of our michael mckee as well. what was the jolt survey like yesterday? what did it indicate to you? tom p: there are quite a number of job openings out there. that is certainly an encouraging development. we would need to get bodies into those openings, of course. we have done a good job of majorityack the vast of job losses right now. gohink there's a long way to , and no one can delude themselves into thinking otherwise, but if you think back to march or april, i don't think anyone thought that we would
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have been able to claw back as many lost jobs as we did. but there is a long way to go. when i think about the current quarter, particularly as it relates to the stimulus back and forth, q4 was always going to be a soft quarter. handlelways had a 1% figured in, regardless of if we get any stimulus. tom k: the multiple dynamics of the survey is about the demand for labor. what did the demand for labor indicate? michael: the first slight fall in four months in job openings, which does suggest we have reabsorbed some workers into employment, but the problem is going to be, as tom was alluding to, the matching of people with jobs. the number of jobs out there that are advertised, that the bureau of labor statistics is able to pick up, is going to be different than perhaps the pool
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of available labor. if you have an opening in a factory, the cocktail waitress who lost her job may not be qualified for that. this finally started to get solved a little bit, but is going to come back now. lisa: we talked about policy. the lack perhaps of fiscal support, what monetary policy is , but it is really the virus very much in the focus right now as it spreads. can you model economically the ramifications of allowing the virus to get worse just as flu season starts to pick up? are you starting to measure for that were tracked at all? tom p: as i glossed over just a moment ago, our view has been that the virus would sort of be even more resurgent in cold and flu season, thus really suppressing economic activity. there it interesting that has been a lot of adjusting of economic forecasts because of
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the lack of stimulus. i don't know that that was really going to make a difference one way or another. i think if the virus does become more resurgent than what we have window,r the june, july if it becomes broader than that, which is what we have baked into our numbers, that i don't to get matters how much stimulus you put in place today. q4 is almost certainly going to be a pretty soft quarter. what i would say is i think most people that read our research know that we rarely hedge. we are happy to stick our next out there. , i what i think about q4 think about our bus 1% that we have penciled in. but that is where our tail risks are. qualitatively, i would tell you that you see a replay of april. me be clear, that is not what i think is going to happen. but we have to is knowledge that that is a risk, that these state
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government officials go through the process of really shuddering shuts again -- i've really ing thingsly shutter again. jonathan: we spend a lot of time thinking about where we are going, speculating about the future. i think it is equally as important to reflect on where we have been. we have surprised to the upside through the summer, into september, and even as we look back at the recent data, still surprising to the upside. what do so many people get wrong? tom p: me and my team, i think we did a pretty good job of sort of mailing the contours of growth thus far. we thought that things were going to come back in a pretty significant way in the third quarter, and thankfully, it seems like we are going to be sort of right on that idea. a lot of the high-frequency data which we were early to adopt has
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been incredibly helpful. i've said many times on this program, things like home base, early on it was really helpful in allowing us to really nail the contours of the upswing in economic activity. i think it is doing less of a good job today, but there is other data for us to latch onto. i think that high-frequency data we have been looking at, that i'm sure a lot of other economists are looking at, that has been incredibly helpful in nailing things down. what we have to keep in mind, and more to the heart of your question, i remember people saying early on, you can't just shut down the economy and expect to turn it back on again. but if you have a $22 trillion economy, if you can get a little bit of juice by turning the switch back on, you can get a pretty decent amount of economic activity, and i think that is basically what we saw. but in so many ways, it is not --
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jonathan: i believe we lost the connection there with tom porcelli, midsentence. good job we've got another economist with us, standing by. the high-frequency data tom was talking about, i wonder how useful that is now. clearly useful in the previous few months. how useful is it? michael: you've got to forgive economists because we have never really had a situation like this before. in terms of how fast the economy comes back, very hard to make predictions. , we we seem to have now will call it estar, equilibrium level. what kind of gdp can you get at a certain level of activity? we saw an immediate come back as the economy turned back on. but it is not all the way back. the progress that we have made is going to be much slower from here on because there are a lot of businesses that are no longer in business.
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that is where the high-frequency data gives us a better picture of how fast we are recovering and what kind of opportunities are still out there. when you look at the stimulus possibilities going forward, the question was, could we keep more businesses and business? can we keep people on those airline payrolls? savings are still high, so we could still see reasonable spending, but it is really going to be about consumer confidence both in the virus, as tom was , and also in terms of the election. suppose joe biden wins and the democrats sweep the senate. all of a sudden, you have a feeling on wall street that you will have a very generous stimulus program. markets go up, people feel better, and maybe you have better spending. all we can do is kind of watch this high-frequency data and try to guess on a day-to-day basis where we are going.
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jonathan: mike mckee, great to catch up. that is the distinction. it is the distinction we have made so many times. main street, wall street. the market will price and the prospect of fiscal stimulus like that. it won't hit the economy for months now. that's got to be the story. tom k: i am suggesting the , this morningnow we are pressing in a return to stimulus discussion. look at the 30 year bond, 1.5804%. we are recovering. jonathan: that is exact what i am saying. the market is pricing in the prospect of fiscal stimulus. does it make a difference to the person sitting at home, hoping there will be more fiscal stimulus? not really. tom k: i disagree. i think the public has got it tattooed on their brain. i don't mean the crudeness of $1200 checks, but the stimulus as income substitution is out there right now. jonathan: tom, what makes a difference is if the check hits
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the bank account, not whether it will or not in three months' time. that's what markets trade on. for individuals, it is if the check actually hits the bank account. what matters for people is that it clears. coming up on this program, deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine. from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump is promising that once he is reelected, he will pass a major stimulus bill that focuses on hard-working americans and small businesses. for now, the president has ended stimulus talks with congressional leaders. democrats have called for $2.2 trillion in spending. the administration has endorsed a $1.6 trillion plan. president trump's doctor says he is reporting no symptoms of coronavirus that led to a three
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day hospital stay. bloomberg has learned the president is getting restless and wants to go to the oval office. he's been in isolation in the white house residence since his return monday evening. joe biden saying that he and president trump should scrap next week's debate if the president still has the coronavirus. the date is set for october 15 in miami. with mild topeople moderate cases remain infectious for as long as 10 days after the onset of symptoms. more thano is cutting 700 jobs in its commercial banking unit. the bank is embarking on workforce reductions that could eventually number in the tens of thousands. the commercial banking unit offers services to businesses that usually have more than $5 million in annual revenue. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dr. fauci: what went on in the
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white house, did not go on as i would have recommended. if you saw the picture from above of everybody crowded together with no masks. jonathan: pretty blunt there from dr. anthony fauci, national institute of allergies and infectious diseases director. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell, with equity futures just starting to push a little higher on the s&p 500. we are up to session highs, advancing 0.7%. i know you've got your eye on a steeper yield curve on tens, up to 0.77%. tom k: after the quiet of the range jon was talking about, i want to make clear there is some nuance in the bond market. we are following it based on the stimulus discussions. some other things going on, including tom porcelli with a pretty quiet economic view. joinsnow, deborah fuller us with the university of
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washington microbiology department, world acclaimed. of course, that includes the fuller lab. we are thrilled that dr. fuller could join us again today. i happened to be talking to my physician yesterday, who cautioned me not to have a celebratory cigar. we also talked about the cocktails you people are inventing. when we say the president took a pharmaceutical cocktail for the virus, what does that actually mean? dr. fuller: but he took was a combination of different antibodies that are designed, proteins that bind to the virus and are able to clear it from his body. that was in experimental drug, but has been tested in clinical trial in about 1000 people, and shown to be safe and actually had some promising clinical data showing it was effective in element in the virus from the body. tom: is it almost antibiotic
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tendency? are we talking about something that is an antibiotic equivalent? dr. fuller: that is a good way of thinking about. it is kind of like an antibiotic. of course, antibiotics fight bacteria, and antivirals fight viruses. lisa: we were talking with tom porcelli of rbc, saying that increasing tail risk even how much the virus is spreading is that we enter an april like shut down situation. given where we are on the former suitable front, do you see that as an increasing likelihood yourself? dr. fuller: this is an issue we are starting to see, and uptick in transmission. we foresaw this, that as people move indoors with the colder weather, that there could be increased spread. lisa: there's also another argument that this is a profoundly different situation
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because medical professionals have come up with different ways to control the mortality rate. do you agree that a shut down in the same sort of way that we saw in april in the united states won't be as necessary due to some of the advancements in the knowledge we have now? dr. fuller: it has come a long way in terms of remedies to be able to better understand the disease and the prediction of individuals who might have more serious disease. also, diagnostics are coming along, and these antivirals. obviously we are better placed than we were in april, but we are still not as a place where we have a vaccine, and this virus is going to spread as it does if we are not careful and tom: tom: keep safe practices. -- careful and keep safe practices. tom: i remember the first time i saw plexiglas at an ice rink.
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tonight we will have plexiglas at the vp debate. does that work? dr. fuller: you know, it does. it is a barrier. mainly the way the virus is spread is through -- tom: the aerosol is not going to go around the plexiglas? dr. fuller: i don't know if you have ever seen one of these pictures of when somebody sneezes or coughs, and where the aerosols go. -- every very much little thing helps. you see people wearing face shields. that is designed to contain aerosols as much as possible. obviously, it is not perfect. face masks would be better. but it is better than nothing. tom: we are focused on the fossils. , 76.giuliani coming on the president, 74.
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the former vice president, 77. what is your prescription for the younger in the white house that have this illness? they are 30, they are 35. the stephen millers. how should they go about getting over the virus constructively? dr. fuller: like everybody else has been recommending, they are going to have to quarantine themselves and watch their symptoms. there are cases where younger people can succumb to very serious illness as well, so they are not out of the woods until they have actually cleared the virus. people can get very sick from this, even if they are young. lisa: just quickly, what is the update on when you expect us to have a vaccine? dr. fuller: some exciting things have happened lately in terms of we have seen a progression of these vaccines in the phase three clinical trials, so we are
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becoming increasingly optimistic that we might be seeing a theine by the end of 2020, beginning of 2021. jonathan: fantastic to catch up this morning. fintech -- thank you for your time. the only person on this program that can call people fossils, tom keene. honestly. [laughter] not something i can get away with. lisa: i don't know. i have a question. do you think tom is getting away with it? we will find out with rudy giuliani and just a bit. jonathan: i think he's getting away with it. stocks got a bid. bond market hasn't. treasury yields up. tom: it is a sort of mess after the shock of yesterday. i would point out the fractional dollar weakness. i went to euro again, just to see the dynamic. ramifications of a substantially weaker dollar, there is a raging debate about
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what that does to other currencies. jonathan: i say this with the greatest amount of respect for professor roach, but how long has he been talking about this now? wasn't he talking about the treasury market getting a test? tom: it has been a constant discussion of a weird dollar, but -- of a weaker dollar, but he has put a date and an amount on it. defense, the twin deficit chart, my chart of the year two years ago, it is literally at an unimaginable level. jonathan: look at where 10 year treasury yields are. tom: i agree. jonathan: people would turn away from the treasury market. they wouldn't go to dollar-denominated assets. tom: do we we affirm today lower yields? steven major reaffirmed that liverpool will be the t -- will be to the tot -- will beat the
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tots. jonathan: that's the important stuff. i'm not sure you should give away where our guests live. tom: come on, it's a big city. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,
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- [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. >> the recovery is more fragile than widely thought. >> there's a real risk that consumer spending could be negative in q4. >> rates going up as a sign the market thinks the economy is recovering. >> inflation is going to mean dollar weakness, not higher yields. >> governments have control of this, not central banks. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an event full day, to say the least. device presidential debate tonight


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