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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 7, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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- [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. >> the recovery is more fragile than widely thought. >> there's a real risk that consumer spending could be negative in q4. >> rates going up as a sign the market thinks the economy is recovering. >> inflation is going to mean dollar weakness, not higher yields. >> governments have control of this, not central banks. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an event full day, to say the least. device presidential debate tonight in -- device vice presidential debate tonight in
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salt lake city, you. hugely consequential -- city, utah. hugely consequential. rudy giuliani will join us, the former mayor of new york city. we hope to get ample time to speak of his health, the health of many in the white house, and his thoughts on the path forward for his president. we've got market recovery off the shock of yesterday. what is the character of recovery you see? jonathan: equity futures up 0.7%. the bond market down, treasury yields higher. the president backing away from talks with house speaker nancy pelosi. i have to say, the administration looks really aligned wit senate republicans in a way it hasn't, offering a slim bill, offering a checks to americans. there used to be three positions.
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now it looks much more like t wo. the difference is i don't thing that spread can reconcile before the election. futures lifting up 24. that is a high for the session. we are roughly back to where we were for that profound tweet from the president yesterday. two tweets following in the evening, showing the specificity that jon ferro talks about. with that come of polls have to be coming out. we are now on from the debate, on from the advent of the virus. today and tomorrow, i would suggest we really start to see a number of polls. jonathan: you mentioned the national polls. cnn yesterday, 57%-40 1%. the one that came out on monday didn't look great at a national level. as we've pointed out a million times, as everyone has, it is the swing states that matter. we mentioned florida at the end of the program yesterday.
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pennsylvania, some giving joe biden a slight lead. they are the polls the matter right now. tom: what is important right now is jon ferro moving to new york, tom keene moving to new york. how about someone who has lived it? lisa abramowicz, who is rudy giuliani to the people of new york? lisa: a very big figure in new york city. very much law & order focused, very heavy police presence. people credit him with a huge reduction in crime, increasingly taking on the role of advisor to president trump and adhering to president trump's views. i struggle with what he has to say about the state of new york city right now, given that fiscal support has been tour to beaded that has been torpedoed -- has been torpedoed. does he view this as just he has abecause
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rivalry with the current administration, or does he sympathize with the rank-and-file new yorker? is 82he hot button perceived blue states -- is a -- is aid to perceived blue states. lisa: the reason why perhaps markets are rallying now is because people are for seeing perhaps a greater chance of a blue wave, perhaps a bigger stimulus package, but how much pain gets inflicted in the meantime? tom: does all of this conversation go over to the markets? jonathan: i think it started to in the last couple of days. the key risk is that no one was winning on november 4, and the polls have shifted. the risk is now that someone wins november 4 and you have to start thinking about their policies. but it is always relative.
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i think the polls right now to that. it is about a relative story. are things likely to go one way or the deadly more than things looked last week -- one way or relatively more and things look last week? about a dollar. $39.80 on west texas. mellon,evine of bny really wonderful academics on the debt amec. what are the dynamics right now within the equity market, with a cacophony of news, the wall of information we are all exhausted by? what is the dynamic for stocks that matter to you? alicia: good morning, everyone. since last tuesday, the betting market -- forget the cnn polls and the "offstreet journal" polls -- the "wall street journal" polls.
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the betting markets started pricing in a democratic sweep. what you saw was cyclicals rallying because the expectation is whether or not you get stimulus bill in the next week or two, you are going to have something even larger in the first quarter. and as we know, markets anticipate and see through the noise of the next few months, and that is essentially what markets were pricing in. to the extent that it is looking like a more lopsided victory for the democrats, it may not happen, but that is what the betting markets are telling us, and markets are pricing in a huge fiscal bill larger than anything mnuchin or pelosi could come up with right now. jonathan: i keep returning to this question. what we have seen so far, is that just a positions squeeze? or are people starting to think about durable change over a sustainable period? hi yields, a steeper curve beyond just the two or three months trade?
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alicia: yes, i think investors are starting to position here. we don't like telling investors or clients that they have to do particular things before elections. markets go up under both administrations in different configurations of congress. however, it is clear that certain sectors will be better off under different administrations. certain sectors will have some regulation under both administrations. we think it is time, with the outperformance of tech since the march 23 low, and really for the two years beforehand, it is really time to start looking at the cyclicals. the u.s. really has no choice here. we will be getting something, and with rising yields, that suggests cyclicals will be in favor. jonathan: are you making a multi-year projection here? what is this, 4, 5 years? alicia: that is a really tough
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question because right now, policy is everything. and we know that. fed policy, central-bank policy globally, sustained markets put a floor under markets, and it for what became a health crisis could have been a financial crisis and a banking crisis as well, and it wasn't because of the fed. fiscal stimulus globally has been enormous, and the u.s. has really been in the forefront of that, spending 15% of gdp on fiscal so far, and looking at another 10%, which is really extraordinary. so much depends on policy. fed mayght is that the come in here and clarify its asset purchases monthly to help stabilize markets if there is no fiscal bill in the next week or two to help get the market over
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that hump. lisa: wait, hold on a second. to stabilize markets? markets are doing just fine. i struggle with the idea that the fed will come in with additional asset purchases. the fed's pricing an additional stimulus next year, regardless of who wins. what does it take to get the fed's attention here? alicia: if we heard jay powell yesterday, i think if we get no fiscal in the near term, meaning the next few weeks, maybe we hear something about asset purchases. maybe. that is the hope of the market and the expectation of the market. if the fed is banking on congress to do something, and the government does nothing, you would expect that the fed would try to do something. i think markets are supported here. the election is sort of this existential risk, but not really to the extent that we have a
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clear victor and that we can move forward from there. as we know, once policies are clear and direction is clear, you can invest. jonathan: great to catch up. let's hope we get some transparency and clarity soon. speaking of chairman powell, substance of the message, not new. not different. the delivery and the boldness of the delivery yesterday, that is what got my attention. at some point, the fed chair starts to sound a little too bearish on this economy without fiscal stimulus, don't you think? tom: yeah, but the venue was the national association for business economics meetings, and you are absently right. the delivery was shockingly out front, given the history of fed chairmans. there's no question about it. jonathan: we reflected last week on the chief economist
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of the bank of england, that some of the fear can become self fulfilling. breachr are we going to that line with the fed. tom: we went straight down, and we have come straight back up. there's a wide divergence of opinions about where that level is. some people are frankly very optimistic. we heard from tom porcelli today, who is on the edge of grim into the fourth quarter. the only reason people watch this show, we are up to 25 listeners and viewers. [laughter] jonathan: let's call it 26. i don't think you should be extrapolating out the balance of the next several months. what i am suggesting is that at chairoint, with the fed beating the drum to hard for fiscal stimulus tom: you don't remember this. greenspan would mention the dollar. i remember there were global headlines because he actually
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talked outside the monetary purview. now it is normal. jonathan: i would agree with that. i'm agreeing with you a lot today. tom: lisa, save me. help me. lisa: from agreeing? yeah. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: this is not healthy. jonathan: coming up, jeanne zaino, iona college professor and bloomberg contributor. i imagine we will disagree with each other and about 18 minute'' time, right here on bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump stunned campaign advisors and allies in congress by halting talks on a new stimulus package. that could settle him with the blame for more layoffs and market losses in the weeks before the election. trump supporters had been blaming house speaker nancy pelosi for asking too much in negotiations. president trump is getting restless and wants to return to the oval office. bloomberg has learned some of his aides don't want him to
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lease the -- him to leave the white house residence, where he has been in isolation since monday. his doctors say he reported no symptoms of coronavirus his first night back. hurricane delta has slammed into mexico, not far away from the resort city of cancun. it weaken slightly just before making landfall. still, winds were near 115 miles per hour, and there are fears of the could cause deadly storm surge that would raise water levels by up to 12 feet. the hurricane is predicted to pick up strength as it moves over the gulf of mexico and takes aim at the u.s.. wells fargo is cutting more than 700 jobs in its commercial banking unit. the bank is embarking on workforce reductions that could eventually number in the tens of thousands. the commercial banking unit offers services and businesses -- services to businesses that inally have over $5 million
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annual revenue. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the expansion is still far from complete. i would argue that the risks of policy intervention are
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still asymmetric. two little support would lead to a weak recovery. in contrast, the risks of overdoing it seemed for now to be smaller, even if policy actions ultimately proved to be greater than needed. they will not go to waste. jonathan: that was the chairman's intervention. jerome powell, the federal reserve, just yesterday. the president tweeting that he agrees. he is just not looking to negotiate with democrats anymore, now offering a piecemeal,n bill, in-line with what many republicans have tried to push. the administration looking far more aligned with republicans in the senate at the moment. they are dropping negotiations going into the election. there is some postelection posturing going on now on both sides. this is our deal, this is there's. we will both be trying to produce some fiscal stimulus if we win. tom: absolutely.
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i am watching the president's tweet, one second ago. we really have to see how this develops. i am watching the 30 year bond as the tweet barometer, at one 1.58%.58 -- at we will get to that as well. futures up 28, dow futures up to 29. jeanne zaino is with us, iona college professor. her book is "brutal." what is the brutal part of tonight's debate people look for? for harris.ll look she's got so much support for liberals, who thought she was really going to take it to pence in tonight's debate. i am looking to see if she can do that, and of her prosecutorial skills really come to for wishing. for pence, i think he is quite
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an underestimated debater. he was very good in the 2016 debate against kaine. he has a background as a conservative radio host, where he told himself -- where he called himself rush limbaugh on decaf. i think the fact that he is underestimated is going to help him in this debate. tom: jon ferro mentioned earlier than what has profoundly changed is the idea of an election that will string out into late november and even december. does that actually happen, when you look at the numbers? are we back to what is going to happen on tuesday evening? jeanne: looking at the latest poll where you are seeing seniors, just as an example, 27 point lead for biden, if you want strickler by the numbers, you would have to say this looks like it could be a blue wave not just at the top, but down ballot because seniors vote in much
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larger numbers. if biden has got that kind of lead, if we can trust those polls, this is going to be a blue wave. but of course, looking back at 2016 and other elections we have seen recently around the world, these poles can also be wrong and misleading. and of course, we vote by electoral college. when you look at the swing states, still within a margin of error in some cases -- pennsylvania, not so much, but states like michigan and wisconsin. so i would not be covered up will saying this is going to be a runaway. i think biden definitely wins the popular vote, but we have to wait to see what happens at the electoral college level. jonathan: we are all conditioned by what happened previously. i think some people would argue the polls were not that far off four years ago. just people's interpretation of what happened four years ago. can you walk me through a lesson of four years ago and what
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happens now? jeanne: i agree, for the most parts, those polls were within the margins of error. but as human beings, we naturally hear ahead by any number, and people think you are going to win. these are all based on probability. so i would just caution everybody to read too much into these poles at this point. number one, they are all within a margin of error. number two, we have people voting already, and voting throughout election season, so this is not just a one-time snapshot. this is a moving target, and we have seen the amount of stories that have broken in just the last week, let alone what is going to happen in the next four. these are snapshots in time. this is an ongoing, changing story, and voters can change their minds at the last minute. and of course, we vote by electoral college. it doesn't matter at the presidential level so much what happens in new york and
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california. it matters what happens in those six to eight swing states that will decide this election. lisa: what is more important for kamala harris, to energize the base or convince moderates that she is not as liberal as the base is trying -- as the trump base is trying to paint her? jeanne: i think to convince moderates that she is not this liberal progressive trying to be the puppeteer of joe biden. again, this is an election that is going to be decided by undecided voters in swing states. they've got to get them out to their side. so tonight, the number one thing is do no harm. number two is to continue to make the case to the american public that the trump administration cannot be trusted to successfully get us through economically, socially, healthwise, and in all of their ways. trumpea of if president
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can't protect himself and his staff at the white house, how can he protect your family. that is the message she has got to send, but has to be very careful not to come across as insensitive in that case. jonathan: thank you for catching up. jeanne zaino there. in about eight minutes, we will catch up with the former mayor of new york city, rudy giuliani. headline crossing the bloomberg from "the financial times." the u.k. to launch a travel task force, planning to test for covid for people arriving from abroad. we have been talking about this. tom: you have been talking about this for six months. jonathan: about seven months in, eight months, governments finally looking at doing this? money is not the issue. tom: you go up to heathrow. do i have this right, you suggest everybody gets tested in, everybody gets tested out? right? jonathan: it is what is
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happening on loads of airports around the world. look at whether other countries are doing. they are looking at getting a test before you fly. you travel with a certificate. you get tested when you land. there are testing regimes around the world doing these things already. for some reason, places like the united kingdom just not keeping up. as i say, money is not the issue. they have thrown a load of money at this. they are just not throwing money at testing for some reason, and i can't get my head around that. tom: it is absolutely fascinating, and the unique character between the united kingdom and the u.s. here, on who is doing the worst practices. you see the 10 year come out to 0.7785%, because we quote to four digits. jonathan: do. you are so happy about that. , $1.1768.ollar
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coming up on the program, a conversation you do not want to mess with rudy giuliani, former mayor of new york city. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. 60 minutes away from the opening bell in new york city. futures up 26 on the s&p 500, advancing .8%. pointeign exchange, one 1767 on euro-dollar. treasuries lower, yields higher. up, around ads basis point off from the high tuesday. we are pushing off those levels again this wednesday. tom: we welcome all of you worldwide, all of you across this nation. 107th mayori is the of new york. he is widely credited with law
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and order in a different time and place for a more fractious new york city. he has gone on to success and debate as well. we greet him at 76 years old and well preserved. rudy giuliani, on fox the other night you made national headlines with a lot of coughing as well. how are you and have you had a test recently? rudy: let me start with the good news. i had a test recently. the day of that time i was coughing, i cough twice and i was clearing my throat. i did test does go hours earlier and came back yesterday and i am negative. that is the second one i have had since i was with the rubin the white house where unfortunately most of them came down with it. , but ia little guilty was one of the few along with jared and ivanka that did not.
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i will go back and get tested on friday and then i will be out of the woods. you have to be very positive. i am not that nervous about it. i know if it does happen, i know what to take. my doctor has provided hydroxychloroquine which i'm taking every day. tom: your doctor has prescribed that to you? rudy: the doctor has treated 2500 patients who had this illness, the man is a genius. his perfected a protocol and lost only two patients. tom: you are the personal confidant to the president. he has tweeted twice he is in recovery. he wants to get back to the oval office. have you spoken to him and left ready for hours and what you will advise him to get his campaign back on the rails? rudy: what he is doing.
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he has served its all over the country making talks. he is communicating from the white house, and as soon as he can he will be back out on the road himself. he has something like 500 surrogates in different parts of the country, particularly key battleground states, who are speaking for him. tom: i do not mean to interrupt. the moste has important vice presidential debate tonight. pence have the presidents ear. what will mike pence do tonight to get the campaign on track to get the marginal voter the president has clearly lost? rudy: he has not clearly lost. your reading polls that are the same polls -- if i take you back four years we were three days behind the billy bush revelations and he was being counted out.
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he was 17 points behind. i understand what is wrong with the polls. they oversample democrats. there is anywhere from a 5% to favornt differential in of trump that is not there because you did not measure enthusiasm. his enthusiasm level is still three times joe biden. half of the joe biden voter are voting because they are democrats and the other half are voting because they hate trump. trump voters are voting for him because they love him and realize he has been one of the most consequential presidents ever and they were afraid of a socialist state. they believe joe biden is impaired and not able to handle the forces. tom: jon ferro wants to get in. you see evidence the former vice president is impaired? rudy: absolutely. 100%. i have had doctors look at him and done a podcast.
8:35 am i've had doctors compare speeches he made five years ago with right now. tom: but so do i. rudy: no you don't. tom: i lose my train of thought on an hourly basis. rudy: pledge allegiance to the flag of the united states america come into the public, for which it stands, one nation, under god, indivisible, with every injustice for all. joe biden -- i pledge allegiance to united states under guard. listen to me. let's not even argue about it. go get dsm-v. dsm-v? you know what that is? it is the psychologist handbook. the 10 symptoms of dementia. he has eight of them. trouble with numbers. he does not remember. he does not remember because he
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has dementia. it is a disease. holland, let's move up -- hold on. we are talking about something that is peripheral. rudy: you're describing the american people of a fair chance to hear the truth, which is disgraceful. you aresten -- rudy: being obstructive. i'm talking about facts. i'm talking about a psychological textbook. you do not want the american people to hear about the guy running for president has an illness. it is clear, it is obvious, go read dsm-v, look for the symptoms of dementia. he has eight of them. is the truth. i know it is uncomfortable, but is the truth. you do not talk to me in that tone. rudy: like what i'm saying is
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not worthy of concern -- rudy: like what i'm saying is not worthy of consideration. you do not talk to me in that tone. let's focus on the 3.5 million of one of the of vladimir putin that went to his son. why would you three -- why would you pay $3.5 million. why did china pay his son $30 million? can we talk about the things you cannot talk about, things you hide from the american people. jonathan: we have agreed to do an interview, not a monologue. you want to let me ask some questions? rudy: i've agreed to come on so i can tell the truth. tom: we are doing an interview. jonathan ferro will ask your question because that is what we do. ask a question to the former mayor of new york city. rudy: you can stop me if you do not like what i am saying. jonathan: i just want to focus the interview.
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let's talk about the debates. about whatup we talk is not talked about? will you let me finish the answer? jonathan: you have not let me complete the question. rudy: i will wait for you to complete the question. make it a fair one. jonathan: the debates. let's start there. i'm not interested in getting combative. the debates, which you had direct involvement in to prepare the president for. governor chris christie said the president was too hot. what did you learn from those debates? rudy: i learned the president has to do that when he is debating the moderator and joe biden. for months, the media has been covering up facts the american people have to know about joe biden, about his incredible
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history, his and his family's of taking money from countries like iraq, countries like ukraine, countries like russia and getting $30 million or more from the communist party of china with which his son has been a partner for the last four years. the american people do not know that because those questions are not asked. those things are suppressed. the reason they do not know joe biden is demented because he cuts off those parts of the interviews when he loses his train of thought, as he did twice the other night. that is my answer to the question. jonathan: we appreciate your time. thank you very much for joining us. rudy: you do not appreciate my time. you are so phony. jonathan: i very much did. rudy: you're working for the democratic party. jonathan: looking ahead to the debates later this evening. tom: it is remarkable to see this after the state of the city. i have the clearest memories
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pre-giuliani of getting out near the port authority into what was -- the romance of a tougher new york city, but it is amazing what this guy accomplished. how different he is now, as we just witnessed, and as you correctly said, a monologue. lisa, did you survive that is a native new yorker? lisa: honestly, the one thing i wanted to ask him, as he said it does not worry him getting the virus. my key question is is this the new tactic, that the virus is not that big of a deal, is that the message from the white house? that seems to be what president trump was saying. i do not think we are getting a clear answer on that. i wonder is that the message. tom: what is so important and what lisa says is the president saying maybe i am immune, it was such a different tone from prime minister johnson, wasn't it? jonathan: what an interview. why are we talking about the
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elephant in the room? that was ridiculous in the last 10 minutes. actually ridiculous. i understand josh wingrove is with us. bloomberg news white house reporter. fantastic to catch up with you. let's try to focus the debate. very difficult to focus the debate. you have an individual helping you prepare for the debate conducts himself in that manner. how on earth will this debate shape up on october 15 in miami florida? josh: i am at a loss for words. i would say rudy has been on the same feat of misinformation the president has . they are convinced there is a conspiracy going on. you heard a little bit of that. some news is he is on
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hydroxychloroquine as a preventative measure. chris christie has come down with the virus and checked himself in the hospital. drugd a warning for that -- rudy sure seemed upset. you do not have that effect on me normally, but there's always tomorrow. we: what is so important is saw the president come out of a close managed theater into that first debate, and all of us, whatever our politics, saw the performance of that debate, and now we see mayor giuliani coming out of the convenience and comfort of the bubble, particularly as personified by his many conversations with a large family of fox properties, fine. can this president go outside
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the bubble to speak to marginal what wehat do not buy just heard from the 107th mayor? josh: he has not ever shown an interest in doing that, and part of the collision course of this election has been the president and people around him coming out of their fox news orbit and engaging with other media, and it often ends up like this. we saw with the townhall that abc ran three weeks ago. george stephanopoulos. trump got a lot of questions from people on handling the virus, downplaying the virus, things people around him had declined to raise with him. it was a bubble popping a little bit for him. the president continues to believe there is a silent majority backing him. poll after poll after poll do not show it. in particular, it looks like he's about to get clobbered among women voters. 20 points. the polls showed over a 30 point
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cap on women voters. know november 3 which reality is correct. some days it feels like everyone is looking at different sheets. lisa: there is also a question if this is the new message out of the white house, that people are overplaying the virus, that the pandemic is not that serious , is there an audience for that view? are there voters who find that to resonate with them and are willing to take the risk? josh: there are, but they are the same voter base the president has. poll after poll says people believe trump does not take the virus seriously and they want more action. we saw the president blow up the stimulus talks and waffle back and forth on twitter throughout the night. people think joe biden would be virus, pollnage the after poll shows it. trump -- is a law
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state of the campaign. tom: our international audience just got a window into a segment of the president support with mayor giuliani, and the heat and ferment of those committed to donald trump your that is fine. rebound to the senate races. i know you are a white house reporter, but how does this tension of conspiracy and ill will and almost criminal intent of democrats, what does that mean to the many senate races? the neutral prognosticators have slowly move the senate race forecast in favor of democrats. fighting this election in colorado and arizona , they are fighting in places like south carolina and north carolina. places republican should not be in tight races. there are a lot of unknowns around mail-in voting, how many
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ballots will be rejected, i do not think anyone is counting any chickens. certainly democrats seem less worried about this poll than republicans do. if democrats take the senate, it could be a cold winter for republicans. we do not know what will happen if trump loses. both in terms of how quickly he will leave, if you will leave, but also what will happen to the party. does he still hold his grip? i think people stalled -- i think he will still hold a big grip over this party. tom: thanks for joining us on short notice. exhausting days for kevin cirilli and our team. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and blew her television after a contentious interview -- on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television after contentious interview with rudy giuliani. now to something more traditional, gina martin adams of bloomberg intelligence, our
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chief u.s. equity strategist. i do not know if you heard the conversation, but it to evolve's to all of these politics and what it means to the equity markets. what does it mean to the equity markets in march or may of next year? gina: what the equity market will focus on postelection are the prospects for fiscal policy to continue expanding and the opposite of that fiscal policy via tax reform and increased tax rates. you will have some give and take depending on how large fiscal policy package is in a postelection environment. you probably see some of them were cyclically oriented groups in the equity market do well, but then you have to think about the timing of how to pay for that and how to pay for the extensive policy action we have had over the last year so. that is where we get into a sticking point. do we pay for it with immediate tax increases?
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we see capital gains rates go higher, do we see corporate rates go higher and how faster they go higher, or is it more of a delay to pay where corporate can adjust and tax rates adjust slowly higher which is different from the equity market? nonetheless i think stocks will focus on those two things as the predominant outcome of the election. that said, in the short term, a lot of volatility and a lot of noise with the election. lisa: mark meadows coming out just moments ago, chief of staff to president trump, saying he is not optimistic about comprehensive stimulus. as a result, we are seeing yields go higher. 30 year yields. markets are looking past near-term volatility, and the more the republicans and president trump come entrenched in not getting a stimulus, the more they expecting a larger stimulus support bill in january
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if the democrats do take control. is that going to be the narrative over the next three months? gina: i think it will be. january is an aggressive timeline considering how long it typically takes. i think it is going to be the to extend purchase and volatility until we get an outcome from the election. if you think about how stocks should trade, we should be trading on the outlook for earnings growth over the next 12 to 24 months. over the next 12 to 24 months it seems likely we will see some form of fiscal policy enacted. there is a lot of uncertainty in the short term with respect to the election. we will not get a ton of risk-taking, and we will not get a ton of accounts putting on highly cyclical trades in the equity market in anticipation of growth because there is so much
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uncertainty in the short run. we still see that in volatility contract, but over the 12 to 24 month period we should see economic growth improve and fiscal policy swoop in with some form of stimulus. that should help the earnings outlook. the ideam struck by that should there be volatility, the federal reserve will step in. if there is not a fiscal reserve package passed by washington, the federalxpecting reserve to announce additional quantitative easing. why wanted this recipe be all good for risk given it would mean more monetary support now and more fiscal support later, leading -- leaving a riproaring rally? gina: it is all good for risk. in the short term there is a true menace amount of uncertainty with respect to the transition of political power if we see a change in
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administration november 3. there's not a lot of short-term tolerance for risk over the next month. that does not mean policymakers are not going to provide the support necessary after that point in time, and i do think investors are looking at that opportunity. they are watching the bond market fearfully as a signal. .he bond market is meaningful if you have a consistent selloff in the bond market yields going higher, that is consequential for equity market valuations as well. i think there's little bit of nervousness in the short term offset by hope and optimism for the long-term. tom: i am going to ask a conventional question, which seems odd in the tumult of the times. then labeler mentioned it -- ben it in london.ed the revenue guessing and earnings guessing. are we guessing better revenues
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and expectations, are we guessing better earnings and expectations? which way does that cut? may well the way back in started putting together an outlook for the most likely earnings and revenue out,. equityared our broad analyst to consensus expectations and found we were somewhat more optimistic than the consensus, and that still stands today. of the into 2021, one most underappreciated aspects of this is you do not have to do much to do better than 2020. without a doubt, we are going to see earnings recovery in 2021, we are going to see bills recovering relative to the first half of 2020 simply because the economy is operating. six months ago we were not even in an operational economy, we were shut down. the difference is we are operating, we are not operating
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at 100%, but even operating at a 50% economy puts us in much better stead from a sales and earnings growth perspective. a german is meant of skepticism from clients saying you cannot -- a tremendous amount of skepticism from clients saying you cannot get a double-digit recovery, you will not see an economic recovery. we have an economic recovery because we have an economy that is somewhat functional, the result of that we will see high single digit sales growth, and we will see double-digit earnings growth through 2021 as long as we do not shut down again. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate that on the equity markets on a day of tumult all christian doing towards kevin cirilli -- all crescendoing towards kevin cirilli in washington dc to this unique debate, separated by of 74las, with candidates years old and 77 years old. a huge response to our
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conversation and monologue of the former mayor of new york. i say this with immense response -- with immense respect to the fabric of the abramowitz family. i think you lived in all five boroughs at one point. i am looking at the rudy giuliani i know that saved new york from prime and the terrible months, jon ferro is looking at someone from london, what were your thoughts on the change in this mayor we have observed over three decades? lisa: a big change, i will say delicately. there has been a transformation. my question is how can we have a conversation if we do not listen to each other? this is the ultimate question. if you have all the health experts saying this pandemic is serious, that it has a substantially higher mortality thatthan the average flu, especially older individuals are incredibly susceptible to that do not get the same kind the president gets, how can we have a conversation if somebody says i do not buy it?
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that is part of the issue. there is a question, how will this read to voters? that will be the question tonight. how does mike pence calibrate this message with a very different attitude than rudy giuliani or president trump. tom: and with the tweets we are seeing right now. of the many tweets, he is going back and forth with many, including links to different tv programs he has an affinity with. i will go to an all caps headline. this is the moment we are in, particular for international audience. the president of the united states. "democrats want to shut your churches down, permanently. hope you see what is happening. vote now!" tweetsmoment, one of the from the president of the united states. we thank all of you for watching. it has been an extraordinary set of hours. we move forward through the day.
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stay with us on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio as well. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ jonathan: from new york and
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london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening ballot. -- from the opening bell. we begin with the big issue. stimulus tops breaking down in washington, d.c. the president tweeting he is instructing his team to stop negotiating with speaker pelosi, suggesting he is not negotiating in good faith, this after the chairman spent the day pushing -- after chairman powell spent the day pushing congress for further action. >> too little support would lead to a week recovery. the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. the risks of overdoing it seemed to be smaller. jonathan: according to president trump, he agrees. offering stimulus checks that will go out immediately, and within the senate gop skinny bi


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