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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 16, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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♪ >> we are now fully in this reflationary reopening stage of the economy. >> people are now finding ways of carrying on their business. >> half of the economy is going to have come back. the other half can't come back. >> we will struggle to get to a 2% sustainable reit. -- sustainable rate. the world islizing not a perfect place, and we are just in it for the long haul. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. friday morning, equity futures positive six points. it feels like "groundhog day." fiscal talks, brexit. but it kind of matters, i guess. scrambling with
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really interesting flow out of the united kingdom. we've got a very nice lift to the market. i don't want to oversell it, but in the last 20 minutes or so, a lift to the market. i see sterling coming in and even the yield space with a little bit lower yield. certainly not the risk of agony we saw yesterday. jonathan: sterling lower. down about 0.2% on cable. reuters reporting that the prime minister is about to say get ready for an australia style brexit deal. when i say australia, think something closer to no deal. when i say canada, think something closer to a free-trade agreement. if the prime minister frustrated with the eu? october 15 was meant to be a deadline. mr. prime minister trying to ramp things up to get concessions from the other side, something he has failed to do in the last month. tom: and there is the norway deal. an australian deal is a much
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more distant deal, a much more traditional agreement. the love and affection of a canada deal where you respect the agricultural projects of a certain region, it seems like the love and kisses are going out of the air this morning. jonathan: i couldn't have put it any better myself. tom: did i do ok? [laughter] jonathan: i am real proud. tom: i thought he was going to come out on a speech on the premier league, that they need to have respect for the champions league, all owned by greedy americans. jonathan: maybe we will get a little more on that a little bit later. i think the prime minister has got some pressing issues elsewhere, particularly in the north of the country. on the fiscal talks down in washington, d.c., where do you want to start? it is like the merry-go-round on capitol hill. it just keeps spinning. lisa: i don't understand why people keep trading on every headline. it is not getting done. right now, the problem is the gap between mitch mcconnell and
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president trump. we will be hearing more about that throughout the day. just to give you a sense of what we are looking for throughout the morning, boris johnson is expected to decide on whether to continue trade negotiations with the european union. i will tell you this, you can talk much more efficiently and adequately about this than i, and i know tom will give us a treatise on fisheries later in the day. at 8:30 am, we get retail sales for the month of september. the expectations is for them to come in strong. all of this talk about stimulus going into people's savings account, that they are coming out and spending. we will be hearing more about fiscal talks at the iaf conference. we hear from a host of financial ceos, brian moynihan of bank of america, jamie dimon of jp morgan. what i am looking for is how much of the moment, slowing if we don't get another -- the
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momentum is slowing if we don't get another fiscal support plan from washington. jonathan: sterling weaker, now unchanged at $1.29. on the s&p 500, positive three points, up around 0.1%. in the bond market, yields come in a single basis point on the 10 year at 0.72%. here are the headlines from prime minister boris johnson. a canada style deal won't work for our eu partners. it is clear the eu is not willing to offer the same deal as canada. it is time for businesses to get ready. he goes on to say, "we will prosper as an independent nation." the british prime minister in the last couple of minutes. tom: you see it in sterling, moving around as well. this distinction between australia and canada is a huge deal, no pun intended, and it really speaks to, as he says in his headline, a new independence. another headline, if there is fundamental change, we are
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willing to listen. when does that change come? over the weekend? jonathan: i don't know. that is kind of the brexit story. it is worth placing these headlines of the broader context, that this is a negotiation. the negotiations continue. matt miller caught up with the german finance minister this week, and he was key to point out, keep talking. this is part of that process. i think there his frustration on the prime minister's half on the ministers of the eu, that they did not have enough concessions. october 15 was meant to be a deadline. it is only a deadline if both sides see it as a deadline. i think the prime minister is trying to suggest he is, but at the end of the day, we know if the other side comes back to talk, both sides are ready to talk. tom: it comes down to power. one of our themes this week has been the new lower interest rates in europe as well. have you seen lower yields in
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the united kingdom, or is the slow down, the disinflation, the lethargy unique to the continent? jonathan: no, i would have to say, the good news for the u.k. right now is that the gilt market still behaves like a sovereign debt market. whenever there is stress, yields start to put lower -- start to push lower. the prime minister speaking about the situation not just with the eu. he goes on to talk about the concern about the outbreak of covid in manchester. the prime minister has got a lot of things to juggle all at once. he's got the tension between the u.k. and the eu on the one hand. on the other, he's got tension within the united kingdom, between westminster and the north of the country, who aren't listening to him. tom: this is really important because jon throws out north of the country, and what do we know? the truth is we don't. i want you to define lancashire to americans. it is a single line from the
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great repertoire of the beatles. ist is lancashire, and what a total lockdown for london? jonathan: north of the country started to go into tier three. the concern for the mayor of manchester, which is up thereby lancashire, the concern is that if you want to put us in tier three, we want more money. that is the battle between andy burnham, the mayor of manchester, and westminster. that is the difference between now and march, the tension within countries. not just the united kingdom, but also spain. we saw that with the government and madrid. the prime minister in the last couple of minutes, the eu not willing to offer the u.k. the same terms as canada. that basically means no free-trade agreement on the horizon between the u.k. and the eu. joining us now is guy johnson. you and i have been doing back and forth in the last hour. here it is. guy: absolutely. let's provide a little to
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context here. i think this situation stems from the statement that was put out from the eu gathering that took place yesterday. that, lord frost, the u.k. negotiator, sent out a tweet talking about his surprise that the eu was not prepared to move, and that the u.k. would have to provide all the movement where there to be a deal. those tweets from frost went down like a lead balloon within the meeting, and the room took it very badly. subsequent to that, we have had at the sameng out time frost started talking. barnier sounded more optimistic and said that the talks could go on. to your point, i suspect that both sides would like the talks to go on. certainly that has been the mood music from johnson. there has been a sense that maybe there needs to be a more positive message delivered from the eu for this to happen.
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i think this is johnson, as you say, negotiating, trying to get the u.k. and the eu into intensive negotiations. barnier used that word last night, intensive. he's basically saying to johnson at this point, unless that happens, we are heading for australia, which is also known as no deal, a very hard brexit. jonathan: you say the word to look out for is intensive. the word i can think of right now is credible. et has to be a credibl threat to walk away. how many times have we seen a headline like this? our audience have heard this a million times in four and a half years. is it a credible threat? guy: time is running short. the deadline now is the end of the year. clearly, brexit in its entirety is likely to run for many years. there will be ongoing negotiations. but the u.k. and the transition
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period ends at the end of the year. in order to get everybody, to get parliaments to sign off, that is a long-term process. the lawyers are going to really andggle to dot the i's cross the t's. as time runs short, the option of walking away does become more credible. i think that is the point that we are maybe now approaching. however, i have heard from brussels that if there was the desire for a deal, that it could be done relatively quickly, but certainly that would cause a lot of stress into year-end. tom: as jon mentions, the australian style deal is a rebranding of a no deal. i get it. but i need you to help me with the geography here. australia is way over there. i get the idea of the distance in trade complexities of the eu and australia way over there. london is across the pond. across the channel. the distancebuy
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here of paris to london versus paris to sydney. it doesn't work. guy: no, it doesn't work. the reason why the boris johnson administration has decided to call it an australian style deal is that the u.k. has an affinity with australia. we have positive connotations with australia. they play cricket, albeit very badly. they play rugby, albeit very badly. we like them. it is perceived as being positive. --: jon jonathan: guy laying into australia. unbelievable. tom: did you see that? jonathan: i know. [laughter] onlygot two digs in their aussies. i just think this morning is totally ridiculous on two issues. fiscal in washington, posturing. brexit, posturing.
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does anyone actually want to make policy? guy: therein lies the problem. we need, particularly at this moment, given the economic hardships that everybody is experiencing, we need clearly defined policy. that seems to be where we are certainly struggling at this point to find guidance. you can see it everywhere. certainly the u.k. at the moment, as we talked about yesterday, i don't think i have ever felt this country less united. in the first wave of covid, everybody was pulling together. now in the second wave, you've got this regional strategy, and that isn't working. as jon said earlier, it is a similar story elsewhere across europe, and definitely the same story over in the united states. what is required is policy and an economic plan to deal with the impact of all of these things we are currently facing. tom: guy johnson, inc. you so much -- guy johnson, thank you so much.
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this is like the call on the biden presidency. how does this debate change with a $1.35 sterling, and more importantly, how does it change with a $1.25 euro? desensitized is this market becoming to these headlines? i think we saw this yesterday, all of the fiscal talk back on the radar, the market hardly moved. where are we now? it is posturing all around. negotiations to posture and say, yes, we want a deal. when the prime minister talks about australia, you are right. that is a rebrand of no deal. for anyone trying to follow all of this, canada is free trade, australia has no deal. it was the front page of "the ft" this morning, trying to put the pressure on the eu to come back to the negotiating table. the truth is we have been talking about this for four and a half years, and still the eu
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hasn't caved. we are staring down the year end without a deal. at some point you need the credibility to say we will walk away, and it has got to mean something. right now, i still don't think it means anything. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we've rebuilt so much. we've given you the greatest tax cut in the history of our country. greatest regulation cut, equally
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as important. mr. biden: you have 91 of the fortune 500 companies paying not a single penny. farecastt it back to a -- if you get it back to a fair tax, you get $100 billion by that one act. jonathan: to town halls overnight in the united states of america. lisa abramowicz is already drinking this morning. [laughter] lisa: cheers. jonathan: how may times have we heard this? lisa: how do you trade this? is completely exhausting, whether you are talking about brexit, the stimulus talks in washington. how do you know how seriously to take any of this? it is exhausting. happy friday, and cheers. [laughter] jonathan: thank you, lisa. happy friday to you, too. i will get straight to the price
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action. equity markets as follows. up five this morning on the s&p 500, a little more than 0.1%. euro-dollar, $1.1723. 0.7257% on the, u.s. ten-year. tom: the theme this week has been the disinflation in europe. the suppressed yields in europe really have my attention across the weekend and into monday morning. futures up five right now. kevin cirilli with us. we are going to drive the conversation forward here x number of days until the election. lot about the a president from their curtains. the president's curtains in the oval office, sort of like a casino, mar-a-lago kind of thing. are the bidens measuring the curtains right now? kevin: know they are not. i think that is a great point because, to be candid with you,
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and i speak to sources on biden's campaign, there is a palpable anxiety of blowing this just like in 2016 for the democrats. meanwhile, my big take away from the dueling town halls was a two campaigns steamrolling towards the finish. the president's reelection campaign is strategically saying we've got to reform the trump coalition and make sure that they turn out and are amplified on november 3. tom: what is your interpretation of the early voting? somebody had a 40 million out there, a 30% persistent -- a 30% statistic or more. what do you get of the last ation aboutm early voting? kevin: historically, early
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voting has helped democrats. but you have republican voters making the calculus and that they don't want to stand in line during covid-19 and with the pandemic going on, that they would prefer to mail in a ballot. but you go back to florida, and one of the reasons kellyanne conway was able to predict that they were going to have a strong election night in 2016 was that the levels of mail-in ballots in florida back in 2016 were underperforming, so the republicans interpreted that as a sign that they were going to be buoyed by support for a high turnout for republicans and a low turnout for democrats. that is in stark contrast to some of the early data we are seeing on mail-in voting this cycle. lisa: how much do mitch mcconnell and president trump hate each other right now? kevin: hate is a strong word. lisa: dislike, have animosity. how much friendship is there when you are trying to get a stimulus bill through? kevin: i think it is easy to be
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friends whenever one has the same outcome in mind. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell once a republican majority. president trump wants to be reelected. from that perspective, they are all working towards the same goal. to your point, and i hear it, there is a frustration amongst rank-and-file members up on capitol hill that there isn't a deal. look at the small business administration. you would have to go back to eisenhower for the small business administration, and now you've got wells fargo saying the small business administration, 100 people were laid off because they took advantage of that. that is the frustration among the rank-and-file members, the places like the sba are not providing the liquidity to main street that is so vitally needed. jonathan: this segment is starting to turn into daily therapy with kevin cirilli down in washington, d.c. hate is a strong word. [laughter] axios asking this morning, is
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this an audience that is exhausted or captivated? are we exhausted by this or captivated by it? kevin: listen, i am going to stick to the facts and not go into therapy. [laughter] jonathan: tell me about your feelings. just tell me how you feel. it is inook, i think the crunch to the election, and i think it is a turnout election. everyone is captivated. i don't know what it's like across the pond, but in america, this is what we live for, you know? jonathan: we look for it, too. let me introduce you to brexit. kevin, great to catch up. kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. the good news is we actually got to focus on policy. both20, you can watch another time. tom: or you can do the synthesis we saw last night, where
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different news organizations are synthesizing the two at once. but i take the point on policy with mr. stephanopoulos and vice president biden. i am not sure how much policy there was with president trump last night. jonathan: i think we got to some of the policy issues around vice president biden, but i had a conversation with guy this morning on the market policy that market participants are looking at. when it comes to fiscal stimulus, it just seems to be all of the good stuff. when it comes to tax hikes, regulation around energy, regulation around financials, how much thought should be given to those issues at the moment? lisa: you actually are seeing different wall street shops come up with production -- with predictions of how much it would eat into corporate profit ability. big tech would have the biggest hit, which is really interesting. how do you match this with potentially faster growth if you do get a bigger fiscal support bill, and people are looking more at the faster growth from fiscal support than they are at the additional taxes? this is one of the underpinnings
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of the additional wave of tech. how do you even game it out with these numbers? very difficult, all hypothetical. jonathan: how are you feeling, tom? tom: saturday, what am i going to do, watch english football all saturday? it might be really interesting. jonathan: it might be a welcome distraction. tom: compared to american sports and all of the bullishness. there's a derby up north. d der -- derby. tom: compared to the world series and all that, saturday looks really good. jonathan: and that is so american, the world series, and it just involves america and nobody else. tom: i never got that. lisa: next therapy session. tom: look at futures are up. jonathan: let's get kevin cirilli. [laughter] lisa: always the hard questions.
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jonathan: beautiful. just great. pressing. you just cut right through the noise, tom. tom: nailed it. jonathan: we are up 0.25%. tom: i like dwight eisenhower's light blue. blue.
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jonathan: i'm restarting the show at 7:30 eastern. live from london and new york, good morning to you. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures shaping up as follows on the s&p 500. eight, advancing 0.2% up -- up eight, advancing 0.2%. treasuries unchanged, 0.7257%. all about momentum and when we have managed to keep it. tom: we've got a lot to chat about here, but seriously, yesterday claims and that reaffirmation, and there is some serious economic data this morning. jonathan: some serious political debates between two candidates that weren't in the same room. take a listen to what happened last night. mr. biden: we make up for percent of the worlds population. we have 20% of the worlds
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deaths. we have 210 plus thousand people -- 210,000 people plus dead. and what is he doing? nothing. pres. trump: i knew it was a big threat. at the same time, i don't want to panic this country. i don't want to go out and say everyone is going to die. jonathan: the president of the united states and joe biden separately come on abc and nbc. the president does not pull well on dependent -- does not poll well on the pandemic, a story he cannot get away from for very obvious reasons. tom: it has been an extremely difficult week for president trump in the polling data. all you need to know, "the new york times" has a great matrix comparing 2016 dynamics and hours, and there is only one little red block on the right now. with james athey of aberdeen standard, we can dive into the investment space and talk a lot about it.
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but right now, prime minister johnson, pandemic. prime minister johnson, brexit. i'm sorry, james. all eyes are on sunday. jon and i have been going back and forth on this. on sunday for the gareth bale is going to be back. what is it going to mean for tottenham? excited as aetty fans myself -- as a spurs fan myself. tom: jon, are your eyes on sunday? jonathan: my eyes are on saturday. tom: ok, we got that out of the way. jonathan: can we move on? tom: i don't know what i'm talking about. [laughter] but james is right, it is a huge deal. jonathan: a few minutes ago, i thought i would get this show back on the road. we are off the rails again. lisa: good luck. tom: they will do that on sunday. onto the markets right now, james athey with us with
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aberdeen standard. things have changed. how do you structure, how do you have a strategic investment plan for q1 2021? james: with great difficulty because you've got a well-known, well advertised risk event where there are probably three possible outcomes, which have relatively high likelihood, each of them, and probably the world looks somewhat, if not vastly different further down the line, depending on the outcome. obviously i am talking about the u.s. election. very difficult to see the house switching back to republicans, so you are talking about biden versus trump, and does the senate switch back to the democrats. if it is a split congress, i don't think that is great. if it is a blue wave, i think the market wants to run with that and think growth, reflation. that is a very different world
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to something where risk assets have to price that out. truly looking through that is very difficult. we are in such a difficult strategic macroenvironment anyway, in my opinion. holes blown in global economies, and now we are trying to patch them up. is not of huge use in guiding the trajectory. jonathan: i just don't know how you invest in this going into year end. you've got all of the different outcomes you can get from the election. the difference between a blue wave and a divided government could be $2 trillion in stimulus. how do you invest around that? james: it is difficult. $2 trillion feels like a small number. that is how crazy things have got. it is difficult because you have a bimodal scenario. you have two very to fund outcomes and a reasonably -- you
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outcomesvery different and a reasonably big difference between the two. if i were to game it out and adjust the outcome, you get something that looks quite neutral because there is a reasonable chance of something going up and a reasonable chance of going down. there are a few places you can feel somewhat comfortable having a position. i don't think the fed's policy is going to be changed in any way, shape or form by the outcome. if you want to hunker down in five-year treasuries, maybe further out, there's a huge amount of probability there. otherwise, it is difficult to have a strategic view as we sit here. i kind of want to talk about some of the technical stuff going on. massive options expert or what have you, but we still have this massive situation where huge option buying is going on in the market in single name tech stocks. we have an option expiring
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today, and therefore the gamma you get, these are the things which are driving markets a lot more into the macroenvironment on a day-to-day basis. that is something that can be both an opportunity and a huge risk. lisa: can you quantify how much you have brought down risk, how much you've gone into five-year treasuries to hunker and prepared to be liquid and nimble when things change? james: that's the process, but that is not some thing we've done a huge amount of at this stage because we are still reasonably far from the election. to be honest, if you look at , that isxperts suggesting biden has roughly and 85% chance of winning the white house, and may be the senate has a 65% to 70% chance of switching to the democrats. obviously those probabilities are closely connected. say, in a twoand
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horse race, this far out, the polling's problem in the last two elections, where romney was leading at this stage and clinton was leading at this stage, that looks like that is overpriced. so there's too much probably the of biden, and by extension, a blue wave has been pressed into the market, and we expect other investors to de-risk going into the election, and that is likely to be there for most heavily positioned assets which see an unwind. we are positioned in opposition to that for now, and we will look for opportunities to just take the overall risk level down considerably into the risk event itself. jonathan: james, cover your ears for attacking -- for a second. i am going to talk about brexit. the prime minister about 40 minutes ago basically signaling he is ready to walk away from
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negotiations, and guess what an eu official thinks? the eu expecting talks to continue with the united kingdom next week. we talked about this, the posturing around this story. it is the prime minister trying to put some pressure on the eu. i am not sure the european union feels it right now. sterling is capturing that story. tom: i remember you planted in a chair the first morning after brexit. what's changed? i don't understand what's changed from that moment when you were on our old set over at ben's very square talking about brexit versus where we are now. what has really changed in the power game between these two parties? jonathan: two prime ministers, and not much else. james athey, how on earth do you trade this one? as for me, around the negotiations, how do you know what is real and what is posturing? james: really good question. a really difficult question. some of this comes with the
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nature of negotiating with the eu. you're talking about 20 odd countries that have to compromise with each other just to get to an eu position, and then there is someone on the other set of the table. they've got their own views about what to prioritize and what they can sacrifice. i would just agree broadly with for possibly the last 12 months, nothing has really changed. this is a game of chicken. the politics have changed dramatically in the u.k., such that their view of how to negotiate has changed dramatically, and therefore is a more robust, more politically supported negotiating position. no deal is better than a bad deal. theye eu, i don't think are quite there. but the political reality of eu negotiations is that doing a deal where compromise is necessary in advance of a unsatisfactory
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political outcome because you can't go back to do mastic audiences who you might have had to sacrifice a bit to get the deal over the line and say you fought as hard as you possibly could, so you have to dangle people over the edge, make them look into the abyss, and then and only then will you get some sort of compromise. the headlines you described today, that tells you all you need to know. i think you can be long gilts because i don't think there is a huge selloff in the gilt market if there is a deal. the virus situation, the global duration situation more broadly is supportive in gilts. we are technically short sterling. one observation from today that is a bit disappointing for me, the downside to cable when that first headline hit was relatively small and quickly reversed, but when you get a positive headline on the other side, the market wants to run with that. i still think there is a sentiment of asymmetry that the market really isn't prepared to believe that the u.k. will walk
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away, which means short sterling increasingly looks like a position that will only really benefit on the outcome if we have walked away and there is no deal. that changes the dynamics a little bit. that is something i have been observing more recently. but again, i don't think you can have high conviction. i would make it 50-50 that we either get a deal of some sort or we walk out. jonathan: james, great to catch up, sir. let's talk about eurosterling quickly. that is the stronger euro and a weaker pound on eurosterling. i worry about europe right now. i worry about the economy that had a service is pmi going into the restriction. i worry about the politics within countries, and i worry about the season. it is not going into summer. it is not march. it is october, going into the winter.
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with thegs change cold. we are seeing that in new york. i agree with you totally. the major theme has been the new regime of lower interest rates, greater negative rates in europe. jonathan: coming up, kathy hochul, new york's lieutenant governor. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. boris johnson is warning the u.k. to get ready for a no deal brexit. the british prime minister says he is walking away from trade talks with the european union. pm johnson: as far as i can see, they have abandoned the idea of a free-trade deal. that doesn't seem to be any progress coming from brussels. so what we are saying to them is if there is some
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fundamental change to approach. we are more than happy to talk about the particulate is what i described. ritika: eu leaders called on the u.k. to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible. president trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time, but on different channels. they held competing televised town halls instead of debating as the schedule had originally called for. on nbc, the president said he knew that the coronavirus was a huge danger, but didn't want to scare anyone. it is theden said response ability of the president to lead, and president trump didn't do that. meanwhile, president trump fell well short of joe biden last month when it came to fundraising. according to a filing, the trump campaign and republican national -- theee wanted to raise biden campaign took in a record $283 million. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,
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powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa
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abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this friday morning. 8:30 eastern, retail sales in america. s&pd of that, up on the 0.3%. euro stronger. euro-dollar, $1.1730. atthe bond market, unchanged 0.73% on the u.s. ten-year. the prime minister threatening to walk away, that you expecting more talks next week, and the head of the eu commission von der leyen say in the team will go to london to intensify talks. i think that is all you need to know. the talks are set to continue. tom: a little bit of emotion there earlier. it is a movement in sterling, $1.2911 now. update, but it can be an update about washington as well. from buffalo and from albany and
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from new york city, kathy hochul joins, lieutenant governor of the empire state. i want to go right to the stimulus and the great contention that aid is necessary for states, cities, and towns. there is a debate about this. the only thing that is going to catalyze that are furloughs and layoffs. how close are you and governor cuomo to furloughs and layoffs? lt. gov. hochul: first, thanks for having me on the show. let me first address why the debate is to whether we need stimulus. i don't understand how anyone would conclude that we can survive without a stimulus package. we never anticipated having to deal with a global pandemic when our budget was put together. not new york, not any other state in the nation. we have incurred stored in area expenses. we have a huge hit to our sales tax revenues. income taxes are going to be plummeting. all of our traditional revenue sources are not there for us.
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so we will need the stimulus plan. it is not debatable. new york state cannot be left on its own. this is a national crisis, a federal disaster. if we had real leadership out of washington, they would understand that. fortunately, democrats in the house understand it. chuck schumer understands that. we are not getting the support we need, and we are going to suffer. tom: we should state to our global audience that the persuasion of the lieutenant governor is to the democracy, and to that of a credit party. -- into the democratic party. can you get that far without furloughs and layoffs? lt. gov. hochul: i don't have a projection on that at this point. we have been going day-to-day. back in may, we had a plan passed by the house that we thought could really address our needs. we are asking for $500 billion for state and local governments. we are talking about funding the health care workers, teachers,
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first responders, critical programs, infrastructure. all of these functions of government that have been direly affected because of the loss of money coming in that we had expected to be there this year. can we wait until a biden presidency? i don't know that we will have much choice, but hope springs eternal. i know this conversation with secretary treasury mnuchin, speaker pelosi, and we hope that common sense will rain. -- will reign. lisa: more locally, there's been a lot written about the power struggle between governor cuomo and mayor de blasio of new york city. does governor cuomo see de blasio as part of the problem or part of the solution at this point? lt. gov. hochul: you have to ask governor cuomo how he views that relationship, but i do know that we work with our local partners. this a lot of collaboration that goes on behind the scenes that does not meet the headlines.
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we need each other in this. that itst a recognition is the state that has the ultimate decision as to whether how you shutand down during a pandemic. the same thing when we reopen. lately it has been referred to as hotspots, and how with the governor have to step in to fill the void because we are seeing areas of the state and specific neighborhoods where the infection rate went up to 5%, 6%, 7%. the rest of the state today is at 1%. we cannot risk our recovery and getting our economy back on all cylinders by having hotspots because the issues weren't addressed early enough in a smart way, so states have had to step in. lisa: there's also a question about quality-of-life concerns. there's a question about trash collection, given the budget cuts, and making sure that the uptick in crime does not continue. there were helicopters over my
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building last night. in general, it is not dangerous, but there was a shooting more than 10 bucks away. what are you guys doing on that front? lt. gov. hochul: certainly that is all very unsettling for the new yorkers who stayed, and the majority of them did stay. we have been through a lot before, and we will get through this. but in the day-to-day life for people like yourself and others, it is tough. i get back to washington here. you want more money for law enforcement, money for trash pickup, you cannot starve the cities while expecting those services to continue. the city of new york will have less money to work with to fund those essential services than they have predicted, and that money has to be replenished by the federal government. tom: do you see a change towards a more ecumenical, a more compromising two parties over the next number of years? or is there a permanence to these would you ditties between rigidities-- these
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between washington and the democrat states and governments? lt. gov. hochul: it reverts back, and i will tell you why. i am a student of history. i am old enough to have watched the watergate hearings as a kid. i knew all the players like they are part of my family. i thought that our democracy was in peril. when i was just a teenager, and i have seen the resiliency of this country. i have seen that yes, we can go to extremes. 1968 was a very tough year in our nation. cities were burning. i remember visiting washington seeing it burning, and the protests some of the division over the vietnam war, that divided family against family. but we always swing back. the pendulum swings back towards normalcy in the middle. right now we have the cult of personality around one individual. i don't think that would have been the case if mitt romney or
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someone had been elected instead of donald trump. i think this is all related to an individual who has promoted himself to attract individuals who are extremists. that is going to go back into the bottle and back underground where it belongs when we have joe biden as president. but also, he understands we have to have relationships with republicans, and that's how the two-party system will continue to thrive in our country. jonathan: still got an election to go, a little more than two weeks away. kathy, thanks for coming on the program. tom, i think when many people think about you -- about new york right now, it is about how well-prepared they are for the winter season ahead. dining is going to be tough for these industries, for these businesses to get through it. tom: it is. top to bottom, this is the big fear. it goes to the three-tier lockdown in the united kingdom as well. just to remind ourselves, it has
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been an extraordinary and original week on the pandemic worldwide. jonathan: coming up, patrick armstrong of plurimi wealth. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,
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>> we are now fully in this reflationary reopening stage of the economy. >> people are now finding ways of carrying along their business. >> have the economy will come back. the other half will not have come back and cannot come back. >> the market gets appointed with the fact that the fed has not articulated a more concrete policy path. >> we are realizing the world is not a perfect place, and we are in the long haul. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone.


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