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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 21, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> people talk about a k-shaped recovery. it is absolutely true. those at the bottom are having a very hard time. >> it is not clear how you get people to spend money and get the economy going. >> the multi-year bear market in cyclicality is probably over. >> the market is not as well-prepared as it usually is for these downside events. >> central banks and governments are in this together. they are one while it. >> we need support for the economy both from fiscal and monetary policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone.
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13 days out to the election. we've got lots in this hour. wendy schiller of brown university will join us on the changing political landscape. there is market movement today. we will talk equities in a moment with james bevan. i love his work on a more long-term perspective. let's go short-term. where in the bond market argue focused? jonathan: long end, of course. front end anchored, a bit of a snooze. and you're starting to break out a bit over the last 24 hours, just north of 80 basis points. just around 95 was the intraday high in june. we have not reclaimed that level. whenever we see a price move like this, it is a bit more fuel for the reflation narrative. it is price first, narrative second. tom: i saw just a little bit breaking out to higher inflation. what is the significance of the vanilla spread, the difference
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between the 10 year and the two-year yield, back to march of 2018? jonathan:jonathan: steeper, and the five year versus the 30 year, also steeper. i think we've got to get much broader than that for this bond market. how self-limiting would a treasury market selloff the, given how much debt we have just added on the corporate sector and in the official sector as well? globally, not just in the united states. what is the tolerance of the global economy for higher interest rates given what we have at in the last six months? i would say that has diminished greatly. what you would see in sovereign debt markets is a very self-limiting one. that is the argument think the likes of steve major and others would present. wonder where a stronger euro really begins to impinge. what is high-yielding corporate
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doing? what do you see in the other part of the credit markets? lisa: everything is great. really good. total flows into particularly the highest yield bonds. ccc rated debt at the narrowest since february. i know jon calls me a bear, and i do tend to be a bit skeptical of the happy talk. doesn't pessimism necessarily translate into an all-out selloff. what people are looking at is the dynamic people were talking about, a self-limiting selloff and some of the full faith and credit debt, given how much impetus there is by the federal reserve and other central banks to suppress yields. the more likely outcome is a lack of productivity, zombie companies, a change in the structural shift. that is where my pessimism is focused, just to set the record straight. jon, just -- [laughter] jonathan: i know.
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tom: is this why you would to london, debbie downer? we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television as well. futures at negative three, dow futures -26. i would point out the polarity of a flat, almost negative dow, up up single digits, and in 28% return on the nasdaq. ccla now, james bevan with , their chief investment officer with a digitally long perspective. james bevan joins us from london. tot is your enthusiasm acquire shares with a three and five year perspective? undiminished in bullishness for the near term. i anticipate the s&p 500 will get to 3800 points somewhere within the next 12 months. but i am not that optimistic in
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terms of the corporate earnings that underpin that progress. i am looking for about 100 when he five dollars for the current year, whereas the street is .fter 131 for 2022, i am looking at $180, whereas the street looks for $190. this is even before we put in the possible risk of mr. biden sweeping the presidency and congress and applying a tax hike to corporations that might deduct from those numbers. my rationale for backing equities right now is the forward-looking returns of inequities against other asset classes remains elevated. it is very high against cash bonds self-evidently, and i
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would say equities are two standard deviations cheap relative to gold. jonathan: this couple of things we need to get through here, james. guest in the last several weeks who has talked about a blue wave and then use the word risk afterwards, and then talked about tax hikes as well. do you think that is really underappreciated at the moment? james: absolutely. the concern is that mr. biden would be bullish for markets. i think the most bullish would be some sort of gridlock in the u.s. political system, where, for example, if mr. biden were president, the senate remained republican. that would mean that the political agenda would be much more muted, and it could be left to companies to do what they do best, which is trying to achieve strong long-term shareholder returns. lisa: this is a counter consensus, the idea of gridlock. people point to a tail risk, the
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idea that there wont be some sort of fiscal stimulus next year. how are you taking advantage of what you perceive as mispricings in the market right now, based on the assumption that there will be a blue wave that is positive for equities? james: i would say that there are some excellent long-term thestment opportunities in united states and globally because if i am right that the global economy gradually heals, i would say emerging markets are particular,play in in particular countries like korea. yet, there are many companies capable of delivering strong long-term returns. i think there are equally opportunities in europe. not to say you can't go anywhere near europe. why would we want to invest? all of the bad news is in prices.
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i am looking at companies like snyder as entities that have excellent long-term potential, and prices in my view simply don't discount the potential good news. tom: we just had on jason bazinet of citigroup, enthusiastic about revenue growth. we were talking of amazon, but just of the revenue juggernauts, how does a conservative guy like you look at amazon and apple as value stocks, and particularly the krach of going to the top of the -- the crutch of going to the top of the income statement to justify ownership? james: i would suggest that what we need to do is think about the current free cash flow, the cost of equity, the return of equity, forwardcompanies' growth potential. i certainly anticipate that the federal reserve is at some way engaged in yield curve control,
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meaning they have the entire yield curve insight rather than cash rates, we will see company's more highly rated then they are today. i think we can expect an expansion of the multiples at the more successful companies. the challenge being trying to pick between the amazons, who i believe will deliver, and the netflix, who i think are overcooked. jonathan: there's a line from your research note. "we think china has all the ingredients of a bubble that has yet to really start. is it when you want to buy? james: i absolutely believe that in due course, the excess cash balances, particularly at the household level in china, will be deployed to the equity market. they will have a head of enthusiasm for the fast-growing stories. i look at the credentials for companies like alibaba, a fundamental business. i look at its global valuation relative to amazon, and alibaba absolutely merits consideration
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in a global portfolio. jonathan: james bevan, thank you, sir. always great to catch up. james bevan of ccla on this equity market. over the next 12 months, looking for 3800. a lot of the heavy lifting to come from the multiple. but when it came to the politics, he used the word risk. it wasn't happy talk about a blue wave. it was talk about taxes. tom: but i did not hear a skeptical bevan there. i feel that part of the trap i'm in everyday in booking is i go to our wonderful team and say, i need more happy talk. can you get me some people that can deliver happy talk? that's part of what we do here. lisa: i'm leaving right now. jonathan: is this to offset lisa? tom: we are attempting come -- we are attempting, but failing to offset lisa. bevan was loaded.
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zinet loaded with happy talk. lisa: happy talk about purina and lysol. i can go there. tom: well, they are showing good, organic revenue growth. jonathan: it is important to understand the reaction function of market per dispense over the last -- market part is immense over the last several months to -- -- market to spence market participants over the last several months to buy. lisa: the reality is they have been right, and they may continue to be right based on the backdrop of yield and the backdrop of the fiscal impulse. i am not saying they are not. it is just a dissonance, as we heard from joe stiglitz yesterday of some of the pitfalls we are seeing and what we are hearing out of companies, as well as some of the , like netflix showed. it is interesting. jonathan: who use to the doom, gloom, boom report? who was that.
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tom: joe granville. granville.reat joe jonathan: i would love that. tom: are we doing happy talk in the next section? tom keene, jonathan ferro. i think this is happy talk. [laughter] lisa: sounds about right. jonathan: coming up, wendy schiller, brown university chair of political science. more fun to come. this is bloomberg. tom: she's always happy. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin are moving closer to a deal on a new stimulus package. pelosi hopes she can get an agreement this week. that is crucial to getting a bill passed by election day. one problem, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell is warning the white house against a pelosi led deal before november 3.
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he hasn't committed to a pre-election vote. president trump's campaign burned through almost half of its cash in september. the money shortfall comes at a time when the president remains behind joe biden in the bulls. his campaign cut back -- in the polls. . his campaign cut back for a while. boris johnson will impose the greatest coronavirus restrictions on greater manchester. official talks broke down, and johnson warned life would be at risk if the government failed to act. the prime minister also left open the prospect of a national lockdown if infection rates keep climbing. shares of netflix are falling today. the streaming service missed wall street estimates for subscribers. that renewed doubts about its . . ability to maintain growth netflix warned. -- about its ability to maintain growth. netflix warned that the
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subscriber boom from the pandemic would not last. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we need to focus on the role of market power in our economy. the low wages, the fact that at
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the bottom, low wages are the same as they were 65 years ago, adjusted for inflation. and most importantly, we need the aggregate demand going up so that the economy, so that the jobs are there for all americans, and that won't happen if we don't have that fiscal stimulus that janet was talking about yesterday. jonathan: what a tremendous line above guests over the last couple of days. joseph stiglitz, following on from former fed chair janet yellen. from london and new york this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a quick snapshot of the price action for you. things have settled down at this session has grown a little bit older. down about a point on s&p 500 futures. in the fx market, something that does still hold is a weaker dollar story. euro-dollar approaching $1.1860. up about three basis points on the 10 year, 81 basis points is
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your yield. stronger 104to a yen gets my attention. wendy schiller is at brown university, and is too modest to mention that she is part of the new fifth edition of the great, definitive "eight ways to democracy it is the one volume, throw it at the kids -- to democracy." , throw itone volume at the kids to read. what will you say? wendy: we have close to 83 million people who have asked for mail-in ballots. 1/3 more then in
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previous election. the big crisis of that has not yet emerged. million -- atd 7 least 37 million votes have already been cast. this changes everything about how we vote. it will probably lead to a higher vote turnout this year ended subsequent years. it makes for a more engaged public. you want people to be engaged. if you don't want your tax dollars wasted, you want people to be engaged. if they can vote more easily, they will be engaged. tom: you had a brown phd student a couple of years ago who wrote 400 pages on mayor daley, 1960, and jfk stealing the election. how do we get away from that thinking? wendy: they thinking that people will steal it is a hard thing. if you know your history, ever since we basically started with the 1880's,ons in
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everyone has been worried about that. but so far you have a lot of tele boards, both in republican areas, that is really locally controlled. that will be a point of contention if this turns out to be a close race. lisa: given the success of mail-in ballots, is there any talk about shifting to an electronic method of voting, considering we are in 2020 and the world is digital? wendy: that's a great question, but i think there's still some big distressed about hacking, particularly as that was made a big focal point in terms of the russian hacking, chinese hacking, american hacking. thinking about hacking a machine, people are so worried about that. i don't know if americans are interested in trusting that to give up the ritual of filling out a ballot and signing it, and showing identification. i am not sure anyone is going to
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move there in the next decade, but i think that just the fact that we get more engaged, just the fact that it should be easy to vote, that is a huge difference, and i think that comes out of a lot of discontent with the system on all sides of the political spectrum. jonathan: just want to run through these headlines from white house chief of staff mark meadows in the last couple of minutes. plans to talk to the senate republicans and pelosi staff members. still a number of issues to work on. the biggest issue remains still state, local, and government aid. that has been the issue for at least the last three months. tom: totally agree. i thing mr. meadows is dead on. there it is, but it is just not democrat cities and government, as the president and others painted. isn't there true -- isn't it true that there are so-called republican states, cities and towns that will be affected if they don't act? wendy: of course, like ohio,
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michigan, pennsylvania, north carolina. even educational systems have had to spend more money to reconfigure their classrooms. it is a tremendous amount of need across the country. but the cynical view in me says that mcconnell is looking at 2022. he's got a good year for the republicans. if they lose the senate this year, they will get back, or try to in 2022. if you add $2 trillion more to the republican deficit, you have republicans running on a $4 trillion deficit, which isn't a good look for them. i feel like he feels he can forgo this and start looking at 2022 pretty much the day after election day, and that is why he is holding out. i think they think this is something they don't want to have to defend and election cycle -- to defend in another election cycle. pass af they were to bill, would that make president
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trump looks good? wendy: of course it makes the president look good. it also makes pelosi look good. it by the end for of the weekend, 50 to 60 million votes have already been cast, the margin for trump shrinks every day, which is why they have sat on it and stalled, knowing that someone he votes will have already been cast. he may get a bump, but it will not be as big as it was a month ago. jonathan: are there any candidates in the senate that are worried about passing this bill because being a fiscal hawk is still attractive to a certain part of this electorate? wendy: i think the bulk of the republican senate kosice. they are always worried about a primary, even if the trump factor goes away. there is still going to be a primary because people
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realize you can upend opponents in an active way. they are worried about getting primary on deficit spending. mcconnell is looking ahead. this is what he's most concerned .bout let's look forward to 2022. thankan: wendy schiller, you. brown university chair of political science. not happy talk there. that is just honesty on the situation in washington, d.c. tom: she's got the microeconomics going on with the higher utility. her book again, "gateways to democracy," is a textbook that is about that thick. i look at all that is going on, i look at the spread market and to me it is news today. jonathan: let's run through it. equities positive by two points, not even 0.1% on s&p 500. we didn't have a single close, or haven't had so far, a single
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close below 70 basis points for the month of october. we have inched towards this election. that election come 13 days away. with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. live on bloomberg tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour out from the opening valve. -- from the opening bell. equity futures choppy. we advance a little more than -- chinesellar-yuan currency the strongest since summer 2018. that is the story in the fx market. the story in the commodity market is the copper price, highest since june 2018. a big china factor, i know the supply disruption, big china factor. demand normalizing. here is the move and treasuries. lower, yields higher, up three basis points on the u.s. 10
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year. a low bit earlier this morning we had a guest on the program who tried to pump up the beige book coming out later. michael mckee joins us, our economics and policy correspondent. lisa: who was that? [laughter] jonathan: i have no idea. should we get excited about the beige book? michael: not at this point. the beige book helps the fed set up for its next meeting. the next meeting comes two days after election day. given we may not know who has been elected the fed is not expected to do anything at that point. there are concerns the economy is slowing down. a lot will depend on what happens with or without stimulus. at this point the beige book will tell us what we already know. moved in the third quarter and had slowed during the fourth. lisa: it is not my fault. i am working with what i got. i'm interested to see what
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showed with the momentum in the recovery, especially with jobs as we wait to see if there is any stimulus deal to be done before the election deal. state and local governments, funding to them, that is the big sticking point. how much has the unemployment picture diverge depending on the state, especially when you're looking at the swing states? michael: the interesting thing about state and local financing is a lot of it has to do with schools. a lot of people do not go back to being employed at schools like custodians and lunch ladies and things like that because schools were not open. now we are finding low transmission rates in schools and many of the school districts will be reopening. we will see if that number starts to go down. there were big losses for the state in the second quarter because of the coronavirus pandemic, and a lot of them say they will be cutting their budgets. most of their budgets just went into effect october 1, so we
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will have to see if that shows up in october payrolls. we had a big decline in state and local employment in september, but that was mostly the schools. we will see what happens with the state worker. jonathan: i made a joke with the -- tom: i made a joke with the beige book, but there is value. of the i know the work late richard yammer on who tragically died young. the acclaimed bloomberg orange book where he would go out and listen to corporate america. when theythe fed hear listen to corporate america? michael: fed officials are hearing more and more uncertainty about the prospect, there was a rebound, now companies are trying to decide if they are vulnerable, if they can stay open if they have enough business. the big companies are getting bigger.
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you will not worry about amazon. you are going to worry about the fabric store on the corner. that is what they are trying to figure out. tom: this is critical and goes to lisa's bloom we have heard this morning -- lisa's gloom we have heard this morning. which part of that business community does the fed represent? michael: the fed would tell you they represent the entire business community and they want to help everyone. what they can do is make it easier to borrow. it is the medium size to big businesses that have been able to borrow. that has been the feds biggest contribution, keeping interest rates low, which is their job. a lot of people want them to --d money, but the banks they have not worked with the fed to build up the demand. jonathan: let's talk about fiscal help. what is left in the tank for the consumer after the huge amount
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of help we had in the spring? michael: there is not much left because the saving -- the pipeline has been turned off. there are savings -- what had been put out was put in the bank. people are probably spending that down because they have stopped the $600 and the $1200 checks. we expect we will see slower retail sales. spending, at services that has not gotten anywhere near as high as the retail sales numbers. at this point the economy seems to be slowing, and that will be a concern for the fed but one they cannot address. they need washington to act. lisa: arch gloom. i am not that gloomy, i am just looking at the ground and seeing what you are seeing is deceleration. is the deceleration adequately
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priced in? jonathan: looking at the ground. spending the day with her head down. [laughter] tom: michael, save us. lisa: i have a question. is there any leading indicator you are watching to determine if analysts are getting it right to determine how much the economy will decelerate? michael: we look at service spending overall, a lot of the high-frequency indicators including restaurants and air travel but give us an idea of where we are with that. since tom bought up -- brought is achard yamarone, there category used to look at. here is where i will save lisa. women's clothing. women, according to richard were the controllers of the family budget, so they knew when there was extra money to buy things. if women's clothing sales are
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rising significantly you can think people have decided things are getting better. if they are stagnant or falling, then you can assume things have gotten worse. that is the richard yamarone indicator. tom: that would be like the famed richard yamarone prada monitor. big box is killing it, amazon is killing it, everything else in retail is struggling to find a place. luxury is flat on their back. what you see in consumer spending, 70% of the american economy? michael: you bree much nailed it. , onlineer box people sales have been strong. the bigger the company the better off they seem to be. grocery store sales were strong. they have leveled off as people have gotten all of the toilet paper they seem to need. you do want to watch the optional spending, particular at restaurants. last week the opentable
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indicator declined and we saw a bar and restaurant spending weaker than it had been. you have to be concerned about things like that. we can spend the day talking to lisa about whether she is shopping. lisa: you don't want to do that. i am telling you right now. jonathan: michael mckee, you bring up something really important. that is consumer disengagement. are you seeing real evidence of that in the u.s. economy? michael: we are seeing a slowdown in services and the fact that service spending does not pick up a lot. we are in the middle of this third wave of the pandemic, and you are seeing state start to close the optional businesses, the inside dining, bars and restaurants, that sort of thing. if that is the case we will have another -- it will not be total lockdowns like we saw, but it is going to be a thing you have to get through, a throttling back of economic growth, and that
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growth gets recycled through the economy, so things slow down overall. tom: everywhere i look i see new cars. it seems like everyone is buying new cars. are we a 17 million unit economy , or is there a new mix between expensive new cars and more reasonable used cars? michael: we went from about 11 million in april to 15 to 16 million right now. a lot of what people have been buying are used cars, and there seems to be a feeling a lot of people are doing that because they do not want to use public transportation, and they want to make sure they can get to work. does that fade as people feel better about the virus, and we see car sales start to fade because those who are going to buy cars did by cars? that will be an interesting dynamic. the automakers were preparing for a world where we would run out and buy electric cars, but now people have loaded up on used cars and you wonder if that
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will delay a replacement cycle. tom: what we can say is car sales have decelerated. jonathan: you could. michael: you do not want to say anyone is tapping the brakes or anything like that. jonathan: ok. this is old school. lisa: is that what we call it? [laughter] tom: i am looking at the ground. automation much better than expected earnings. -- autonation with much better morning. jonathan: we will see you tomorrow morning with initial jobless claims. 870,000 the estimate. tom: i'm so glad you bring this up because we have a debate tomorrow. you have to wrap around the debate, all of this happy talk about apple and amazon. there is another economy off that statistic we see with mike at 8:30 tomorrow. lisa: you don't say? jonathan: one of the themes
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tomorrow will be american and security and those kind of things. it will not just be about covid-19. we know with the administration this president would like to make this campaign about -- foreign policy. lisa, we have a good idea of where things are headed tomorrow evening in nashville, tennessee. lisa: i think the mute button will be deployed. i am to hear about china, the key issue. people expecting joe biden to come up with something. they think he will not be as hard on china as president trump would be, which is one reason people give for the acceleration over there. tom: debates do not look like that. to be honest, this goes back to our non-interview with mr. giuliani a few days ago, this will be a president who i believe wants to talk about the son of vice president biden versus joe biden who does not want to make a mistake. my right about that? jonathan: i think we will have
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that conversation tomorrow evening. you peek -- you keep bringing up an interview we had a number of weeks ago. trying to move on. tom: it was not an interview of happy talk. jonathan: i do not know if you can call those kinds of moments interviews. tom: you crushed it. you crushed it with the mayor. jonathan: coming up, david rubenstein, carlyle group co-founder. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. mitch mcconnell may stand in the way of getting a new stimulus package before election day. bloomberg has learned mitch mcconnell has warned the white house not to rush into any agreement and he has not committed to taking a vote. mnuchinlosi and steven are moving closer to a deal. nancy pelosi says she is hopeful for an agreement this week. the coronavirus pandemic is quietly gathering force in a region that has already suffered greatly. southern states in the u.s.. by absolute numbers, the region
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remains the national center of the pandemic. more people are fighting covid-19 across the south than any other part of the u.s. kentucky just hit record hospitalizations. west virginia and oklahoma did so on friday. a new report on president trump's taxes reveals details about his activities in china. according to the new york times, that includes a previous unknown bank account. the paper said the president spent a decade unsuccessfully pursuing projects in china and has an office there. the president and his allies have announced joe biden for being soft on china and point to business dealings there. it is an echo of the cold war. the western world's premier spy alliance has avenue focus with the rise of china and president xi jinping. the network is made up of the u.s., u.k., canada, australia, new zealand, seeking
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intelligence on anything from the coronavirus and child trafficking and other nations now want in. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i hope that sometime in the next few years -- i've not announced of the retirement date yet.
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covid is a crisis. i know the time will, eventually for me to leave. it is not yet. i'm not sure when it will be. oakland,gentleman from mr. mackey, we will go into that in a moment. futures with a modest lift. the vix above 30 with yield tension. now 29.83. yen,en 105 into a stronger 104.68. john mackey is misunderstood. he sold whole foods to jeff bezos, but what he really did ,as completely invent a culture from safeway a zillion years ago , literally of vegan co-op in austin off of ut, he built it into a juggernaut that changed everything in food in america.
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david rubenstein, peer-to-peer conversations, had the privilege of talking to this truly original executive. david, what did you learn from john mackey? david: he is a very competitive person. he is not as wealthy someone would think he might be from having to start this company, but he does not care about money. this is his life. he is married with no children in this company is his child. sold offes to say, he his daughter to the wealthiest man in the world. amazon,sold them off to and we all see the changes. what is so important is the processes he put in place around a core strategic belief. how did he do that? david: he is a person that believes in the value of organic and healthy foods so it was easy for him to promote that because he believed in it.
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it turned out a lot of other americans did as well. 'sat he has done with amazon amazon has improved the technology dramatically, and during the covid period online sales have been higher than they would have otherwise been. he has that he will do this for a couple more years but he does not know how much longer. he is a content person. sometimes you get ceos and founders not happy with her life, he is a happy person. lisa: i think he spoke for all of us when he said 20/20 is the weirdest year of my life. why did he say that? david: he has had to retool the entire company. it used to be people came in for the shopping experience and walked in the aisles and now they have to focus more on people who have picked up because people do not want to walk in the aisle so much. he had to reinvent the business. and he has more competition than he used to have. he had virtually no competition for the first 25 years. he has been the ceo for 42 years , and for 25 of those there was
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not much competition. now the major supermarkets are all having whole food and other organic food displays, and he has more competition than he ever had. lisa: there is a question about his contentedness with the sale to amazon, especially in light of the increasing scrutiny around big tech and monopolies, consolidation. did he give an alternate view that was believable to you of the possible benefits to consolidation at a time when people are bemoaning the concentration of wealth and market share among the biggest companies in america? david: when you marry off your daughter you are always saying is this person going to be good enough? he has always saying did i make the right decision. he is content with it because amazon has helped them in many ways. say he is 98% happy. it is widely understood that the panels you and i have done in davos you wanted a mute
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button to shut me up. we will have a debate with some mute buttons. what is your prescription for your candidate, vice president biden, to survive thursday. david: i do not have a candidate. i do not give money to either candidate. on the other hand, i would say i do not think the debate can change that many votes at this point. i would be very surprised. i've been involved in debates and they have marginal impact. unless somebody does something outrageous, i do not think it will have a big impact. the main thing joe biden has to do is not make a mistake, and the thing trump has to do is not do the kind of things he did before. the mute button will have some impact, but you can talk over a mute button. tom: go ahead, lisa. lisa: that is news to you. you can talk over the mute button. carry on. tom: i look to this moment we are in in a country moving forward, and part of it is the
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inefficiencies or harm of capitalism. defend the system. david: capitalism is, as churchill would have said, the worst system as all accept all of the others. capitalism has a lot of income inequality built into it because the people at the bottom do not do as well. on the other hand, it is created more wealth for more people than any other economic system. very few people are rushing to leave capitalist systems to go to palming us or socialist systems. immigration is heavy. emigration is modest. lisa: how will the outcome of the election affect your investments, if at all? david: we make long-term investments so it is hard to say. i expect the economy will have some slow down in the next year, it is probably due for that. i do not think the tax policies will change that much no matter who is president because congress is probably not going to move dramatically on things. the most important factor right now is having an economic
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stimulus package, because it is clear the last stimulus package is wearing off. if we do not have a stimulus package, we will see much higher on employment rates and lower growth rates. tom: david rubenstein, thank you very much. an interview with john mackey, the founder of what we call whole foods and organic as well. , peer-to-peerght conversations on uber television. on bloomberg radio and -- on bloomberg television. on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television lots to talk about on a bond market -- i wonder where the tension clicks in. i think it is before 1.0%. lisa: this is the debate for big tech, the idea that low yields have justified these high pe ratios. right now it does not seem to be affecting things. five-year, 30 year yield terms at the steepest since december 2016. tom: look for those charts from
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lisa abramowicz, bloomberg graphics on twitter that she does. she does so well. i'm looking at foreign exchange. dxy, the blended country indexes under 93. 92 .65 signals weaker dollar. you see it with japanese yen, 104.61. a 103 would be something. euro 1.1864. we barely touched on it today. lisa mentioned the importance of china in the debate. renminbis 6.65. yuan stunningly distant from what we saw. seven yuan. into fixedhange income and bring it over to earnings season. the one thing i saw today of note on earnings was nestle of switzerland with the constructive view forward on organic. much more through this day,
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including kevin cirilli on their surveillance down in the pantry in nashville. descends on, a fog washington. ♪
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♪ jonathan: from new york and
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london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is the countdown to the open. 30 minutes until the opening bell. equity futures positive around a 10th of 1%. another deadline comes and goes. speaker pelosi extending talks beyond her tuesday cut off, hoping to reach an agreement by the weekend. jonathan: we all want to get -- >> we all want to get an agreement because people need it and it is urgent. one bump in the road, the appropriation committee. let's hope they are ready. we are striving to write the bill and then cap negotiations. -- and then can have negotiations. jonathan: chief of staff mark meadows segment conversations today were productive enough to have conversations tomorrow. state and local spending is still an issue that's days unchanged.


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